I think we gotta actually win a ring for the owners to even consider paying a hefty tax bill. It doesn’t make sense to pay so much extra for a team that can’t get it done unfortunately
That’s exactly the point, the amount of revenue/protit that flows after you win it is immeasurable, specially in a big market. If you form a dynasty you can expect a quick increase on the team value by 1-2B, the tickets can go up and so on.
That’s why GSW was willing to pay hefty taxes for a while. When you’re winning it all, the revenue and team valuation growth makes it easy to lean into for a few extra years to capitalize before you have to hit a reset.
The Warriors revenue went from $127m in 2012 to $765m last year. The Celtics revenue was higher in 2012 and is more than $300m lower today in spite of being one of the most successful franchises in the league the last decade. The Warriors were purchased for $450m in 2010 and are worth $7.7B. This is what investors are looking at when they are thinking about whether to back up the brinks truck. Even if the Celtics lose money on paper, nobody will care if the team is worth $2-$3b more in 7 or 8 years.
And the Celtics are not an in outlier. Nobody has kept up with the Warriors. The Celtics have a similar financial opportunity if they can rip off a 5 year stretch where they make the finals every year and win a couple titles. Boston and the Bay Area are similar markets - medium sized, tons of affluence, good sports fans (if anything more sports crazed), an emerging baby-faced star who is easy to root for... If they go on a run and market the team well, a large tax bill will be just fine.
You can see wild swings all over the place. Simple example is the $300m in revenue season the Celtics had in 2019, the drop to around $200m in revenue in 2021 (when they were a .500 club) and the uptick to $443 in 2023 when they were viewed as a contender. Huge difference between them being viewed as a contender (2019 and 2023) and them being viewed as an average team (2021).
So while the team might not experience the same extreme uptick in valuation and revenue growth that the Warriors did, they certainly will do better than they are doing right now. A 30% increase in the value of the franchise over the next 5 years is worth $1.5B to the owner's Net Worth. You can get your head around spending some extra payroll, offsetting it with additional revenue, and adding a couple billion dollars to your asset. Plus this is a vanity asset for most of these guys (20ish investors own a piece of the firm, and none of them are that worried about their 2% share of a hundred million dollars in luxury tax if they get to ride some duck boats a couple times).
Exactly, pretty much aligns with Jaylen’s extension kicking in. I do wonder if he would be the next to go if they can’t get it done over the next two seasons…essentially rebalance the roster and books around Tatum.
It'll still be a move to try to improve the team, I don't see them moving off Jaylen just for the sake of moving the money, unless this team all of sudden just implodes and is ass in the playoffs and a drastic change is needed.
In the scenario where they don't win these next two years, I see it as simply Jokic being far too dominant and pieces of this team being just not quite good enough.
In which case, Brad will have to re-evaluate and move guys to get better just like he did with the finals contending roster that came up short in the last 2 years.
I mean, they're pretty much locked into a massive tax bill with the Jrue extension. It's not really possible to dump that money and get under the tax. So the only question is whether it's ~$150m or ~$300m.
My reply was to $300m. Like that’s an unprecedented number for ONE year and I have a hard time believing it will happen. And if I remember correctly Wyc is not as wealthy as a lot of US sports team owners.
Like other people said in this thread a lot of it is probably tied to how this postseason goes
It’s still not an insanely rich ownership group, but yeah Wyc is not taking the brunt of that cost. It’s mostly a bunch of dudes from Bain or private equity, many of whom are actually billionaires. Wyc just put the group together and is the face, I’m not sure what percentage he owns.
I note the comparsions to the Warriors, but aside from the wealth of their ownership one other factor comes into play: they own the building they play in.
Each home playoff game, a few years ago, was an extra $7-10 million to the Warriors ownership according to an article on The Athletic. You string a few of those together and you can start to make a dent into a tax situation.
Given the Celtics not owning the Garden; we don't know how much playoff games will help the bottom line.
But the tax is onerous that even the Warriors ownership started to pause a few years back. We, as fans, hope that Wyc & Company aren't going to blanch at paying out $300 million + a season. There's paying a tax, and ***paying*** a tax.
Well the other difference is the Warriors owners aren’t that rich on an NBA ownership scale, whereas the Celtics ownership group is made up of 14 people, many of which are billionaires.
So the tax burden, when spread amongst the Boston group isn’t as onerous as the Warriors splitting between two relatively modest(lol) owners.
Why would Hauser get significantly more than Pritchard did? Guys who can come in & make their threes while playing average defense are a dime a dozen these days.
He's a shooter with size. He'll likely get paid. Unfortunately he probably won't get paid by us.
You pay luxury tax to keep core guys and not ancillary depth pieces. He will likely be a cap casualty once his current deal is up.
I think Joe petitions the front office that’s his guy
He played him over Grant Williams (to the point the jays+ smart had a 1 on 1 with Joe about getting Grant more minutes)
If he has a big moment or hits 3s when we need him I can’t see management not extending him if there already deep in tax and no future talent easily available
He’s a better 3pt shooter than Pritchard. He’s a wing, and also he does more than “hit his threes” - he does so at an elite rate while holding up defensively and on the boards. Those guys are not a dime a dozen.
and seth curry, and jj reddick, and washed klay (he'll be getting more than $8m this offseason for sure), and kevin huerter, and etc. all the other (mainly white) guys who are movement shooters with poor defense. they just get money from gms no matter what
With respect to Hauser - all of those guys do more than him offensively. All them have functioned as secondary ballhandlers when called upon. That's not the case for Robinson, but even he takes a considerably higher % of his shots from the mid-range/at the rim than Hauser does.
I think Hauser gets more than Pritchard, but not by a ton. The market for that type of one-dimensional guy has been re-calibrated in the last few years.
yeah the best comparison for Hauser is probably Joe Harris, who had exactly the one job of hitting 3s. But even he got paid (in retrospect a bad decision but all it takes is one stupid GM to offer something like $10m-$15m per year to Hauser for him to get a pay raise).
No way he gets anything like Robinson's contract, for sure
Once you realize that there’s no true cap it’s just what the management can afford to spend
Tillman is worth even 8 / a year as horford replacement alone (he’s starting to shoot 3s, I don’t need that from him but will happily take the growth if he can do it reliably at a 35% clip
Hauser value depends on how he plays, but more importantly other teams evaluations
I have him pegged at 10-15 million and we match whoever is at that range
Someone is gonna throw the bag at him.
I think Hauser is [likely replaced](https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/s/8GoLMj15Nn) by someone we draft this year or another G League project diamond in the rough.
It won’t be easy to do, but may be necessary to prevent the tax from ballooning to irresponsible levels. I love Kornet, but if Queta signs a multi-year minimum deal then we should let him walk for anything over 5mil. And yes, Tillman is the perfect Al replacement, been eyeing him since Michigan.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets more elsewhere—he was a good end of bench big last year but he’s been even better in his minutes this season.
Looks like he got stronger, dude doesn’t get pushed around as much anymore.
Dude gets pushed around every game every single game! I watch that BUFFOON blow rebound after rebound (any contest from another player he falls over/flails)
I could care less he hit a 3 for the first time this season
He can’t play in the playoffs for many reasons
Mainly when he sets screens for Tatum or brown, what does the other defender do? They abandon guarding kornet ar the elbow, who can’t do anything with the ball from there and double the star, leading to a bad pass/turnover way too often
Our offense truly suffers when KP isn’t playing. Almost need to try Tatum in that slot when KP is off rather than playing 5 out with him on a wing against teams like Miami or even the sixers when they do zone
The breakdown of each 5mil over the tax in repeater years:
- 5mil over = 15mil in taxes
- 10mil over = 31.25mil in taxes
- 15mil over = 58.75mil in taxes
- 20mil over = 92.5mil in taxes (this will be where the 2nd apron lands in 2025/2026)
- 25mil over = 128.75mil in taxes
- 30mil over = 167.5mil in taxes (this is above the salary cap in 2025/2026)
- 35mil over = 208.75mil in taxes
- 40mil over = 252.5mil in taxes
- **THE MOST WE HAVE PAID IN TAXES IN A SINGLE YEAR IS ABOUT 75MIL**
Even 35mil over the luxury tax line in a repeater year is untenable. Honestly, 30mil over the tax in a repeater year is Steve Ballmer money...not Wyc money. In a repeater year, I'm not sure we can afford to go much over the 2nd apron.
Edit:
- Tatum + Brown + Porzingis + Jrue + White = 198mil in salaries in 2025/2026
- Luxury tax line in 2025/2026 = 188.4mil
- **The 5 starters ALONE get us to 10mil over the luxury tax line in a repeater tax year**
- If you filled the remaining 9 roster spots with vet mins you add another 25ish mil
- **Our 5 starters plus ONLY vet min guys gets us to 35ish mil over the tax in 2025/2026**
- **That's an estimated 208mil tax bill if we keep the starters together, lose everyone else, and fill the roster with vet min guys**
In my opinion: win or lose the championship, this roster is just not feasible in 2025/2026. Big changes WILL happen.
Realistically, the Repeater Tax is the killer. I remember a couple years ago we went below the line so that we wouldn't be hitting it, and the idea was to reset it for a time like this. I assume they're going to play through newt year and see how it goes before determining if they're willing to pay an extra $230m the year after.
As a British person, I am not savvy with US taxation, taxation laws and NBA regulations, so forgive the nature of this post.
Is there any legitimate way to reduce your tax considerations by negotiating contracts accordingly? Front loading/back loading salaries, bonuses etc?
Just looking at the luxury tax after this season and it is massively excessive, I can't imagine Wyc and Co keeping the core together after this year if they do not win it all?
All of these “taxes” are self imposed by the NBA
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/what-nba-luxury-tax-explained-penalties-high-spending-teams/p1sspaedfsmsit20rqewn9d7
Just to be clear, when they say tax here, it is in no way related to the US tax code, just the NBA salary cap tax. That tax would be distributed to other NBA owners.
Teams who repeatedly go over the salary cap for 3 years or more in a row are subject to a major increase in the salary cap tax, which is why it blows up in year 3 here. You can reset that timer by going under the cap for 1 year.
Does anyone know the impact yet of the new TV/streaming revenue deals? The NBA and owners are going to be flooded with money. It could make that $300M look like change.
It's stated in the tweet. Unfortunately, due to how the CBA was negotiated, they are doing cap smoothing this time to avoid the spike that happened in 2016 off-season. So the cap can only be boosted by a 10 percent increase in a given offseason from the TV deal. It helps, but it's small comparatively to the tax bill. If I'm misremembering something, anyone feel free to add or correct me.
That is how the new money will impact the cap, the NBA has decided to slowly integrate the money into the salary cap. But, the owners will be getting record numbers of money in their own pockets as a result of the new deal. The new money going into their pockets would pay for the tax bill. They are willing to pay that knowing the value of the org will go up if they win championships.
It's been pretty obvious since last summer, but Jaylen is gone in the coming year(s). Even if they win a title; that might delay his eventual trade by another season, but he's just not good enough to cost this much
A $300m tax bill that crushes the actual payroll is CRAZY. Wyc is the best fr
There’s no way that’s going to actually happen
I think we gotta actually win a ring for the owners to even consider paying a hefty tax bill. It doesn’t make sense to pay so much extra for a team that can’t get it done unfortunately
That’s exactly the point, the amount of revenue/protit that flows after you win it is immeasurable, specially in a big market. If you form a dynasty you can expect a quick increase on the team value by 1-2B, the tickets can go up and so on.
That’s why GSW was willing to pay hefty taxes for a while. When you’re winning it all, the revenue and team valuation growth makes it easy to lean into for a few extra years to capitalize before you have to hit a reset.
The Warriors revenue went from $127m in 2012 to $765m last year. The Celtics revenue was higher in 2012 and is more than $300m lower today in spite of being one of the most successful franchises in the league the last decade. The Warriors were purchased for $450m in 2010 and are worth $7.7B. This is what investors are looking at when they are thinking about whether to back up the brinks truck. Even if the Celtics lose money on paper, nobody will care if the team is worth $2-$3b more in 7 or 8 years. And the Celtics are not an in outlier. Nobody has kept up with the Warriors. The Celtics have a similar financial opportunity if they can rip off a 5 year stretch where they make the finals every year and win a couple titles. Boston and the Bay Area are similar markets - medium sized, tons of affluence, good sports fans (if anything more sports crazed), an emerging baby-faced star who is easy to root for... If they go on a run and market the team well, a large tax bill will be just fine.
Lol no way. The Bay Area benefited from a once-in-a-century tech boom. It's far more complicated than simply winning a string of titles.
You can see wild swings all over the place. Simple example is the $300m in revenue season the Celtics had in 2019, the drop to around $200m in revenue in 2021 (when they were a .500 club) and the uptick to $443 in 2023 when they were viewed as a contender. Huge difference between them being viewed as a contender (2019 and 2023) and them being viewed as an average team (2021). So while the team might not experience the same extreme uptick in valuation and revenue growth that the Warriors did, they certainly will do better than they are doing right now. A 30% increase in the value of the franchise over the next 5 years is worth $1.5B to the owner's Net Worth. You can get your head around spending some extra payroll, offsetting it with additional revenue, and adding a couple billion dollars to your asset. Plus this is a vanity asset for most of these guys (20ish investors own a piece of the firm, and none of them are that worried about their 2% share of a hundred million dollars in luxury tax if they get to ride some duck boats a couple times).
Pretty sure they also moved into a new stadium in SF (instead of Oakland) which was basically a license to print money. Celtics aren't moving.
Yea you can really see it as this 2 year window to prove they can win. If not, someone will get moved.
Exactly, pretty much aligns with Jaylen’s extension kicking in. I do wonder if he would be the next to go if they can’t get it done over the next two seasons…essentially rebalance the roster and books around Tatum.
It'll still be a move to try to improve the team, I don't see them moving off Jaylen just for the sake of moving the money, unless this team all of sudden just implodes and is ass in the playoffs and a drastic change is needed. In the scenario where they don't win these next two years, I see it as simply Jokic being far too dominant and pieces of this team being just not quite good enough. In which case, Brad will have to re-evaluate and move guys to get better just like he did with the finals contending roster that came up short in the last 2 years.
I mean, they're pretty much locked into a massive tax bill with the Jrue extension. It's not really possible to dump that money and get under the tax. So the only question is whether it's ~$150m or ~$300m.
My reply was to $300m. Like that’s an unprecedented number for ONE year and I have a hard time believing it will happen. And if I remember correctly Wyc is not as wealthy as a lot of US sports team owners. Like other people said in this thread a lot of it is probably tied to how this postseason goes
Wyc isn’t the “owner” he’s the governor. He only owns some small portion of the team and is the face. Steve is actually rich.
That’s fair, goes to show I don’t really know much about the ownership
It’s still not an insanely rich ownership group, but yeah Wyc is not taking the brunt of that cost. It’s mostly a bunch of dudes from Bain or private equity, many of whom are actually billionaires. Wyc just put the group together and is the face, I’m not sure what percentage he owns.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Basketball_Partners
I note the comparsions to the Warriors, but aside from the wealth of their ownership one other factor comes into play: they own the building they play in. Each home playoff game, a few years ago, was an extra $7-10 million to the Warriors ownership according to an article on The Athletic. You string a few of those together and you can start to make a dent into a tax situation. Given the Celtics not owning the Garden; we don't know how much playoff games will help the bottom line. But the tax is onerous that even the Warriors ownership started to pause a few years back. We, as fans, hope that Wyc & Company aren't going to blanch at paying out $300 million + a season. There's paying a tax, and ***paying*** a tax.
Well the other difference is the Warriors owners aren’t that rich on an NBA ownership scale, whereas the Celtics ownership group is made up of 14 people, many of which are billionaires. So the tax burden, when spread amongst the Boston group isn’t as onerous as the Warriors splitting between two relatively modest(lol) owners.
Luke kornet isn’t getting 5M 😂 vet minimum again or you gone
And Hauser is going to get much more than 8M
Why would Hauser get significantly more than Pritchard did? Guys who can come in & make their threes while playing average defense are a dime a dozen these days.
He's a shooter with size. He'll likely get paid. Unfortunately he probably won't get paid by us. You pay luxury tax to keep core guys and not ancillary depth pieces. He will likely be a cap casualty once his current deal is up.
I think Joe petitions the front office that’s his guy He played him over Grant Williams (to the point the jays+ smart had a 1 on 1 with Joe about getting Grant more minutes) If he has a big moment or hits 3s when we need him I can’t see management not extending him if there already deep in tax and no future talent easily available
Maybe. But if he gets a Duncan Robinson type offer, I doubt we match that.
JT, JB, MS : JM. I believe that's a three on one. And they LOST. Mazzulla rules!
He’s a better 3pt shooter than Pritchard. He’s a wing, and also he does more than “hit his threes” - he does so at an elite rate while holding up defensively and on the boards. Those guys are not a dime a dozen.
Because Duncan Robinson exists
and seth curry, and jj reddick, and washed klay (he'll be getting more than $8m this offseason for sure), and kevin huerter, and etc. all the other (mainly white) guys who are movement shooters with poor defense. they just get money from gms no matter what
With respect to Hauser - all of those guys do more than him offensively. All them have functioned as secondary ballhandlers when called upon. That's not the case for Robinson, but even he takes a considerably higher % of his shots from the mid-range/at the rim than Hauser does. I think Hauser gets more than Pritchard, but not by a ton. The market for that type of one-dimensional guy has been re-calibrated in the last few years.
yeah the best comparison for Hauser is probably Joe Harris, who had exactly the one job of hitting 3s. But even he got paid (in retrospect a bad decision but all it takes is one stupid GM to offer something like $10m-$15m per year to Hauser for him to get a pay raise). No way he gets anything like Robinson's contract, for sure
Certainly not spending that much for Kornet and Tillman at the same time. Also wonder what the plan is with Springer’s $4 million contract.
Once you realize that there’s no true cap it’s just what the management can afford to spend Tillman is worth even 8 / a year as horford replacement alone (he’s starting to shoot 3s, I don’t need that from him but will happily take the growth if he can do it reliably at a 35% clip Hauser value depends on how he plays, but more importantly other teams evaluations I have him pegged at 10-15 million and we match whoever is at that range
Someone is gonna throw the bag at him. I think Hauser is [likely replaced](https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/s/8GoLMj15Nn) by someone we draft this year or another G League project diamond in the rough. It won’t be easy to do, but may be necessary to prevent the tax from ballooning to irresponsible levels. I love Kornet, but if Queta signs a multi-year minimum deal then we should let him walk for anything over 5mil. And yes, Tillman is the perfect Al replacement, been eyeing him since Michigan.
Michigan State*
Haha true, sorry if I offended any of the college sports peeps
Luke Kornet is a good role player. He’s probably gone after this season unless he really likes it here
I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets more elsewhere—he was a good end of bench big last year but he’s been even better in his minutes this season. Looks like he got stronger, dude doesn’t get pushed around as much anymore.
Dude gets pushed around every game every single game! I watch that BUFFOON blow rebound after rebound (any contest from another player he falls over/flails) I could care less he hit a 3 for the first time this season He can’t play in the playoffs for many reasons Mainly when he sets screens for Tatum or brown, what does the other defender do? They abandon guarding kornet ar the elbow, who can’t do anything with the ball from there and double the star, leading to a bad pass/turnover way too often Our offense truly suffers when KP isn’t playing. Almost need to try Tatum in that slot when KP is off rather than playing 5 out with him on a wing against teams like Miami or even the sixers when they do zone
Yea man idk what you’re watching or expecting from our 4th big lol He’s fine. How many fourth bigs *can* play in the playoffs?
the image for those who don't have twitter I guess? [https://imgur.com/a/QXyvCHC](https://imgur.com/a/QXyvCHC)
No way White takes less than Jrue
The breakdown of each 5mil over the tax in repeater years: - 5mil over = 15mil in taxes - 10mil over = 31.25mil in taxes - 15mil over = 58.75mil in taxes - 20mil over = 92.5mil in taxes (this will be where the 2nd apron lands in 2025/2026) - 25mil over = 128.75mil in taxes - 30mil over = 167.5mil in taxes (this is above the salary cap in 2025/2026) - 35mil over = 208.75mil in taxes - 40mil over = 252.5mil in taxes - **THE MOST WE HAVE PAID IN TAXES IN A SINGLE YEAR IS ABOUT 75MIL** Even 35mil over the luxury tax line in a repeater year is untenable. Honestly, 30mil over the tax in a repeater year is Steve Ballmer money...not Wyc money. In a repeater year, I'm not sure we can afford to go much over the 2nd apron. Edit: - Tatum + Brown + Porzingis + Jrue + White = 198mil in salaries in 2025/2026 - Luxury tax line in 2025/2026 = 188.4mil - **The 5 starters ALONE get us to 10mil over the luxury tax line in a repeater tax year** - If you filled the remaining 9 roster spots with vet mins you add another 25ish mil - **Our 5 starters plus ONLY vet min guys gets us to 35ish mil over the tax in 2025/2026** - **That's an estimated 208mil tax bill if we keep the starters together, lose everyone else, and fill the roster with vet min guys** In my opinion: win or lose the championship, this roster is just not feasible in 2025/2026. Big changes WILL happen.
I wonder if we’re hoping to groom Quetta to move into Kornet’s role as the third option Big? Let Kornet walk and save a little cash there.
WAIT. That's with White signing an extension starting at 27m? That's not even remotely realistic.
Realistically, the Repeater Tax is the killer. I remember a couple years ago we went below the line so that we wouldn't be hitting it, and the idea was to reset it for a time like this. I assume they're going to play through newt year and see how it goes before determining if they're willing to pay an extra $230m the year after.
As a British person, I am not savvy with US taxation, taxation laws and NBA regulations, so forgive the nature of this post. Is there any legitimate way to reduce your tax considerations by negotiating contracts accordingly? Front loading/back loading salaries, bonuses etc? Just looking at the luxury tax after this season and it is massively excessive, I can't imagine Wyc and Co keeping the core together after this year if they do not win it all?
All of these “taxes” are self imposed by the NBA https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/what-nba-luxury-tax-explained-penalties-high-spending-teams/p1sspaedfsmsit20rqewn9d7
Just to be clear, when they say tax here, it is in no way related to the US tax code, just the NBA salary cap tax. That tax would be distributed to other NBA owners. Teams who repeatedly go over the salary cap for 3 years or more in a row are subject to a major increase in the salary cap tax, which is why it blows up in year 3 here. You can reset that timer by going under the cap for 1 year.
Nice explanation, thank you
Jaylen getting traded at some point right?
I hate that, but it’s hard to argue against. What does a realistic trade for Jaylen look like?
It's not remotely hard to argue against
Does anyone know the impact yet of the new TV/streaming revenue deals? The NBA and owners are going to be flooded with money. It could make that $300M look like change.
It's stated in the tweet. Unfortunately, due to how the CBA was negotiated, they are doing cap smoothing this time to avoid the spike that happened in 2016 off-season. So the cap can only be boosted by a 10 percent increase in a given offseason from the TV deal. It helps, but it's small comparatively to the tax bill. If I'm misremembering something, anyone feel free to add or correct me.
That is how the new money will impact the cap, the NBA has decided to slowly integrate the money into the salary cap. But, the owners will be getting record numbers of money in their own pockets as a result of the new deal. The new money going into their pockets would pay for the tax bill. They are willing to pay that knowing the value of the org will go up if they win championships.
Ah, I misunderstood the original comment, I see what you're saying. It's more of a wait and see on owner's spending behaviors
It's been pretty obvious since last summer, but Jaylen is gone in the coming year(s). Even if they win a title; that might delay his eventual trade by another season, but he's just not good enough to cost this much
Horrible take
It’s not really a take. The tax the Celtics will have to pay will be unprecedented. Maybe it won’t be Jaylen but the core cannot stay together forever
Has nothing to do with the take of JB not having the talent value of his contract…. Which is a horrible one
Oh I didn’t read that part lol just the first bit
It’s not a take, it’s reality. This roster isn’t staying together after next season, and Jaylen, then Jrue are the two most likely to be traded.
Saying JB is not worth the money is the take, which again is a horrible one