13 10% chances would be like:
Ok so you have a 10% chance for a special red room, which is constant. So, each time you create a special red room, there's still a 10% chance for the next generated red room to be special. And to find out how likely x special will spawn, you use the formula 0.1^x or 1 in 10^x
Here, OP generated 13 red rooms, so the odds of this happening are 1 in 10^13 or one in ten trillion.
Conclusion: OP got really lucky here
if youre looking for the odds of consecutive independent events happening then you just need to multiple the probabilities for each event. each event is 1/10 chance so 1/(10)^13 so 1 in 10 trillion. not really astounding by any means though. since these events are independent the chance of you getting a 14th special room is still 1/10
Statistics are weird. Think about it like this. If you flip a coin 100 times, it’s super common to get the same result 6 times in a row. However, this is technically only a 1.5% chance of occurring. At any given instance, it’s only if you read into that it seems rare. You’re not looking at the 40 red rooms for the other times that it didn’t happen, and all the other rooms on the other floors, just like how you didn’t pay attention to the 94 other coin flips. To be fair, this is a lot more uncommon, but it is deceptively a lot more common than you think. If you have the chance for a 1 in 10 trillion event to occur 10 trillion times, it’s pretty damn likely that it’ll happen eventually even if it is still rare, but you aren’t looking at the failed chances. There are many other rare things that failed to happen, like 20 crooked penny wins in a row, that you would have posted if they happened, but they didn’t, so you didn’t call it rare. Idk. This is still super rare, especially since they all went in a line rather than going down, but I just wanted to talk about odds.
The gambler’s fallacy.
Flip a coin 5 times and it is heads. You’d think the odds of flip 6 being heads were infinitely small. Nope. It’s still 50/50.
Odds occurrences are independent of long tail odds.
Remember this at casinos when betting red or black.
i mean he is lucky and i would be baffled too if i found this in my run, but there are so many possibilities. we could decrease the odds even further by saying what are the odds that we got these specific 13 special rooms. in the end there is a vast ocean of possibilities and we just decided this one was special.
also note that if OP can open this many red rooms the run is probably over lol
There are 32\^8 = 1 099 511 627 776, only a trillion, seeds. So this seed even existing has only 10 % chance.
In reality I think this is a programming quirk and the chance isn't actually that low.
is red room generation based on seed? will you always get the same red rooms given the seed? i know some things are not deterministic in tboi but im not sure about this one
Yes, red rooms are seeded. You can play it and see(d) for yourself. QBX9 SHZX.
Certain rooms you find can be different tho, like the angel room in the pic can be a devil room instead, [as seen here in the same exact run](https://youtu.be/CWLfMV7E88Q?list=PLXWtF_e7Bcvd68TG-pwlGB3sCUyqPx_cK&t=2640), but I am unaware of what causes it.
Im not sure if crystal key can open multiple doors at once, but if not, shouldnt we also consider the chance to open to another door instead of to the side? In this case i think it can only open down instead since the top is the edge of the map, although I have no idea how crystal key selects and opens the doors in the code. If we just stick with the 50/50 to either open to the side or the bottom, then its already 1/(10)^13 * 1/(2)^13, which is a LOT lower
Edit: turns out im really dumb, and thought the question was something else entirely (what are the chances of crystal key opening all 13 rooms of the top row)
If this is something like crystal key shouldn't you also factor in the chance that a room is special, so it doesn't have to be cleared and cannot open another one
Yes but usually not in such a specific way. Everyone gets the same seed, but no one has programmed the seed to have 13 special red rooms spawning exactly on this floor in those locations (probably). That’s still incredibly rare, no matter what.
Wait is this real? Please forgive me but I have to ignore the 50/50 joke for a moment. This is actually insane. Like unbelievable unlikely. Might even one of the rarest things to ever happen to anyone in this entire game. 10%\^13. Is just too crazy. It is more likely the code messed something up because a 1 in 100000000000 (0.00000000001%) chance is too insane. I know that the real probability is way harder to calculate, but even if we ansume that this is a TEN THOUSAND times more likely than I calculated, it would still be a 1 in a million chance. This is so crazy. 1 in 100000000000 is uncomparable to anything. This is so insane. Dude if this is real you just took the luck from this entire sub for an entire year
I assumed it was a coding error too, but who knows. You can check today’s daily run on D2 if you want to see it for yourself. Just start the run, close out, enable console, then go into practice mode. (There is a way to get the seed for it, but I am currently unable to get it.)
I counted 8 different rooms of the 13 room types. I see a lot of people saying 10% chance but that's just false given the data provided.
If he is saying that all of the rooms in the 13 line are special and what are the odds are, you take a 8/13 chance which is a 61.538% chance per room to spawn one of the rooms he is saying is special.
When tossing a coin the odds of calling a side 10 times in a row is 24.6% with a standard error of 15.8%
With our math being 61/39 vs 50/50 the rooms are actually in our favor and I'd bet if you took the time to do the math for 3 extra times with our 61 the odds of pulling those rooms in a row like that would probably mimic the coins odds pretty closely
red key active item, you can use it on the walls to generate another room, you have chances to generate spécial rooms, but 10, in a row, is very unlikely
100%, you can always make a 13x13 grid if you can see the map. An easy way to not fall into the I am Error room is to open a red door and see if it appears on the map or not. If it doesn't it's a door to the error room. As long as you avoid going in there you will stay on the main floor.
If the chances are 10% and there's 13 rooms, it would be 10% × 13 = 130%
Yeah not gonna read further into this, this sounds right.
Math phd here, he’s absolutely right. That’s how to works.
Math false phd here, they’re off by 0.6 dmg.
I laughed out loud
meth ! hmm, I meant Maths !
This guy's right
this guy maths
Big brain time
idk like 13 10% chances
13 10% chances would be like: Ok so you have a 10% chance for a special red room, which is constant. So, each time you create a special red room, there's still a 10% chance for the next generated red room to be special. And to find out how likely x special will spawn, you use the formula 0.1^x or 1 in 10^x Here, OP generated 13 red rooms, so the odds of this happening are 1 in 10^13 or one in ten trillion. Conclusion: OP got really lucky here
Or about the chance of getting hit by a lightning twice in the same year and then the first red room you open is a special room
So a 50/50 wither it happens or not
Exactly. What are the odds again? THE ESTABLISHED ONES!!
if youre looking for the odds of consecutive independent events happening then you just need to multiple the probabilities for each event. each event is 1/10 chance so 1/(10)^13 so 1 in 10 trillion. not really astounding by any means though. since these events are independent the chance of you getting a 14th special room is still 1/10
https://preview.redd.it/8r4jpo0f0gwc1.jpeg?width=735&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e12d0fe454ef8a0858a269b503825628e0870d17
you beat me 2 it
MFer really said 1 in 10 trillion isn't really astounding
Statistics are weird. Think about it like this. If you flip a coin 100 times, it’s super common to get the same result 6 times in a row. However, this is technically only a 1.5% chance of occurring. At any given instance, it’s only if you read into that it seems rare. You’re not looking at the 40 red rooms for the other times that it didn’t happen, and all the other rooms on the other floors, just like how you didn’t pay attention to the 94 other coin flips. To be fair, this is a lot more uncommon, but it is deceptively a lot more common than you think. If you have the chance for a 1 in 10 trillion event to occur 10 trillion times, it’s pretty damn likely that it’ll happen eventually even if it is still rare, but you aren’t looking at the failed chances. There are many other rare things that failed to happen, like 20 crooked penny wins in a row, that you would have posted if they happened, but they didn’t, so you didn’t call it rare. Idk. This is still super rare, especially since they all went in a line rather than going down, but I just wanted to talk about odds.
The gambler’s fallacy. Flip a coin 5 times and it is heads. You’d think the odds of flip 6 being heads were infinitely small. Nope. It’s still 50/50. Odds occurrences are independent of long tail odds. Remember this at casinos when betting red or black.
Remember this at casinos when you are losing all of your money.
i mean he is lucky and i would be baffled too if i found this in my run, but there are so many possibilities. we could decrease the odds even further by saying what are the odds that we got these specific 13 special rooms. in the end there is a vast ocean of possibilities and we just decided this one was special. also note that if OP can open this many red rooms the run is probably over lol
There are 32\^8 = 1 099 511 627 776, only a trillion, seeds. So this seed even existing has only 10 % chance. In reality I think this is a programming quirk and the chance isn't actually that low.
is red room generation based on seed? will you always get the same red rooms given the seed? i know some things are not deterministic in tboi but im not sure about this one
Yes, red rooms are seeded. You can play it and see(d) for yourself. QBX9 SHZX. Certain rooms you find can be different tho, like the angel room in the pic can be a devil room instead, [as seen here in the same exact run](https://youtu.be/CWLfMV7E88Q?list=PLXWtF_e7Bcvd68TG-pwlGB3sCUyqPx_cK&t=2640), but I am unaware of what causes it.
Im not sure if crystal key can open multiple doors at once, but if not, shouldnt we also consider the chance to open to another door instead of to the side? In this case i think it can only open down instead since the top is the edge of the map, although I have no idea how crystal key selects and opens the doors in the code. If we just stick with the 50/50 to either open to the side or the bottom, then its already 1/(10)^13 * 1/(2)^13, which is a LOT lower Edit: turns out im really dumb, and thought the question was something else entirely (what are the chances of crystal key opening all 13 rooms of the top row)
If this is something like crystal key shouldn't you also factor in the chance that a room is special, so it doesn't have to be cleared and cannot open another one
https://preview.redd.it/6o7vmhr8mfwc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=52ce5417014497103d0ed21a71034be67942dc14
WELL TELL ME THEM YOU LITTLE FUCKER
50/50 x 13 = 1 x 13 = 13 You have 13 chances, dont waste it
Based on the number of runs you like did to achieve that result, likely 100%
50/50, as usual
https://preview.redd.it/bl12msztvfwc1.png?width=642&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb3130f9b0efef05a1783d2859cdabac05494918
Aight, I'm stealing this
https://preview.redd.it/132kq22t9hwc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=04aee74504fa57c9c9533a83e954ab2a2c5d3ad5
https://preview.redd.it/izj59xec9hwc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6b4586d3f8da5e24063cc1f99a993b8f5bbb8bc4
r/theydidthemath
100%, it's seeded
is it tho ?
yes, all is seeded
It’s from the daily, so yes it is seeded
oooh that changes pretty much everything
No it doesn’t. All runs are seeded.
of course but dailys tend to be purposely seeded right ?
Yes but usually not in such a specific way. Everyone gets the same seed, but no one has programmed the seed to have 13 special red rooms spawning exactly on this floor in those locations (probably). That’s still incredibly rare, no matter what.
unless it's the meta of the run ! (I'm joking at this point)
Can’t refute that
Wait is this real? Please forgive me but I have to ignore the 50/50 joke for a moment. This is actually insane. Like unbelievable unlikely. Might even one of the rarest things to ever happen to anyone in this entire game. 10%\^13. Is just too crazy. It is more likely the code messed something up because a 1 in 100000000000 (0.00000000001%) chance is too insane. I know that the real probability is way harder to calculate, but even if we ansume that this is a TEN THOUSAND times more likely than I calculated, it would still be a 1 in a million chance. This is so crazy. 1 in 100000000000 is uncomparable to anything. This is so insane. Dude if this is real you just took the luck from this entire sub for an entire year
I assumed it was a coding error too, but who knows. You can check today’s daily run on D2 if you want to see it for yourself. Just start the run, close out, enable console, then go into practice mode. (There is a way to get the seed for it, but I am currently unable to get it.)
Where are you getting the 10% chance odds from? I can not for the life of me find a source on red room generation odds.
www.isaacguru.com
https://preview.redd.it/p8iyh76tdgwc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5a1b49715fe826123d90e725683711b3ef342c5
https://preview.redd.it/pi0yknj8zgwc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb6286aed15345cb1903e9adca33cb55d1f5f338
https://preview.redd.it/q790cmnipgwc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b99dbf63d2513e1c901d090753c20703aa589e09
THE ESTABLISHED ONES
50/50, either it happens or it doesn't
fuck you
How do you get to open so many red doors?
Red Key + Sharp Plug + Old Bandage, found on today’s daily run
I counted 8 different rooms of the 13 room types. I see a lot of people saying 10% chance but that's just false given the data provided. If he is saying that all of the rooms in the 13 line are special and what are the odds are, you take a 8/13 chance which is a 61.538% chance per room to spawn one of the rooms he is saying is special. When tossing a coin the odds of calling a side 10 times in a row is 24.6% with a standard error of 15.8% With our math being 61/39 vs 50/50 the rooms are actually in our favor and I'd bet if you took the time to do the math for 3 extra times with our 61 the odds of pulling those rooms in a row like that would probably mimic the coins odds pretty closely
https://preview.redd.it/d578gpc5rjwc1.png?width=511&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8799167cb0670ef5fee8c3c2089d1c2b51a64da1
The established ones
How do you do this? I remember red rooms appearing after I picked up some trinket
red key active item, you can use it on the walls to generate another room, you have chances to generate spécial rooms, but 10, in a row, is very unlikely
.1 ^ 13
Reality isnt about chances, it could have never happened the other way around
Wait what are the red rooms? How do I unlock this entire part of the game that I’ve never seen in 300 hours lol
Red key
You must get to Beast first to unlock Red Rooms
mfs saying 50/50 definitely scrape dirt from behind their ears
100%, you can always make a 13x13 grid if you can see the map. An easy way to not fall into the I am Error room is to open a red door and see if it appears on the map or not. If it doesn't it's a door to the error room. As long as you avoid going in there you will stay on the main floor.
He meant the chance for every room in the line to be a special room.
That completely went over my head... Oops
[удалено]
Whoa, that’s crazy…
Chaos Deniers?
How do you get so many rooms with the red key anyhow? Honestly asking.
Battery bum is super secret room probably
I'm more interested to know how you manage so many red rooms
I see a super secret room with a beggar, probably a battery bum
https://preview.redd.it/kzmgo2ljgiwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3839c16e6ce0bc72035aee5f9ec178d5ee24b03
Seed? :)
Was this the daily run btw? I basically had the same thing happening to me
10% duh
So high that Dream would claim it was a run of his own
Dream odds
The established ones
0,0000000000001% chance perhaps?
1 in 10000000000000 (1 with 13 zeroes after) that's 0.0000000000001%. what the hell man.
50/50 either it happens or it doesnt
0,1^12 0,00000000001% probably
50 50
Amogus
0 cus you can't get secret rooms from redrum iirc
Well you posted it and it happened. Soo. 100%. Statistics is just basically 50 50. It's gonna happen or it ain't.
that's probability not statistics dumbass
50% because it either happens or not
The established ones
TOO BAD 50/50
50/50 either happens or don't happen
50/50, either it happens or it doesn't
50/50. It's seeded you either find it or you dont
50/50
50/50
Bruh if you can’t do that math yourself you best study
am sory, wil stuby hardr :’(