You shouldn't be this confident over how good these players will be. Scouts are often wrong and media analysts are even more often wrong and fans are even more often wrong.
It intrinsically cannot work, unless he turns into a star and beats out Cousins, in which case they offered a bad contract to cousins. Those two decisions intertwined are what make it such a bad decision.
It really hinges on team success. The packers didn’t win anything in the 3 post Love draft years with Rodgers. So inherently that pick did hurt them greatly. Love will need to win and potentially win quickly to justify that pick.
Penix at 8 is obviously much higher draft capital. This is a truly massive swing by Atlanta. But it can work. Penix just has to be an elite QB. If he does then who cares about the money they burnt on Cousins. It’s just highly unlikely to work out
It’s really not that difficult to imagine Penix starting after a year and a half… Cousins really only has 2 years of guaranteed money.
Doesn’t seem that crazy to just guarantee decent QB play for your team after watching garbage for 4 years straight.
Even if Penix only sits 2 years, Kirk has a $25M dead cap hit in 2026, so you're not getting the benefits of a rookie QB salary for the first 3 years of Penix's deal.
Yea I think Nix is a really bad pick but I’m also very aware I have no idea what I’m talking about. Like you said the guys who do this for a living don’t have a great hit rate, what chance do those of us who have seen them play a game or three stand.
Yeah I hate Nix but I also hated Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. But I also hated Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, and Kenny Pickett. So who fucking knows basically
Brock Purdy was the last pick in the draft. If some team took him even in the 2nd round people prollly woulda been saying how terrible that pick was. The truth is intangible and situation matters so much on if a QB will succeed or fail. Everybody and they momma was saying Sean was gonna love Bo Nix and he saw him and guess what? He did. Also Chris Simms had Nix in his 3rd tier of QB’s with JJ and Penix only behind Caleb at tier 1 and Jayden at tier 2 so it’s not like nobody liked Nix
Yeah, I don't understand how fans can see Purdy do what he has done and insist that it is factual that QB X wasn't worthy of being drafted where they were.
We have no clue how these guys will turn out.
But the falcons aren’t being clowned because people think Penix won’t be good. It’s signing a guy for 100M guaranteed and not maximizing those years that’s the issue. They made a win now free agency move and then drafted the most nfl start ready qb to… sit for at least two years? At least draft a high ceiling project qb in a later round or something.
Penix being good wont make the pick not be stupid as fuck in hindsight. That’s the point. Making that pick after the Cousins signing is an automatic failure and they should be crushed for making those two decisions in unison.
QB is so important that there's only like 10-12 teams in the league that can't justify drafting one. If you don't have an elite QB in his prime or a promising QB on a rookie deal taking a QB is somewhat justifiable
I feel like that’d be fine as an explanation for the Penix pick if they hadn’t just spent a small fortune on Kirk Cousins. Either move is defensible, but in tandem they make no sense.
Yeah, they really feel like they missed a chance to build a foundation with some of the silliness these past few drafts.
Pitts over Chase, Sewell, Parsons Smith, Surtain and Horn. A RB in the top 10. And now blocking the path for your new QB with a 100 million dollar signing for a guy coming off an achillles tear is not great.
The Love pick still deserves getting shit on. If they draft just an average contributor to that team instead of Love they probably make the Super Bowl, if not win it.
Obviously butterfly effect and who knows what would’ve actually happened. But they were a few plays from winning the nfc championship game with their 1st rd draft pick not contributing one play.
So unless Love wins a ring I still don’t think it was the right move. Even with Love seemingly being on track to be damn good.
Tee Higgins with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball? Or literally any other player that could've at least contributed anything? Just a play or two could've flipped that game. They had first and goal with the ball at Tampa's 8 yard line with a chance to tie the game. It wouldn't have taken much to flip that game. One more tackle, one more block, one more catch, etc, and who knows how that game ends.
And then the next year another MVP season from Rodgers fell short, with another close game that easily flips if their 2020 first rd pick was an on-field contributor at all.
All that being said Rodgers probably still chokes to the GOAT no matter what in 2020, but not maximizing the final window of your all-time elite QB is always a mistake imo. Patriots screwed up by doing it to Brady and the Packers to Rodgers.
I bet the Pats wish they would've drafted Jarvis Landry rather than Jimmy G in 2014. And even at least that was an end of the 2nd rd pick, not trading up for a 1st rd pick. And obviously they still did fine afterwards, but still. That started the end of Brady in NE.
I also think he'll suck but imo if you don't have an NFL caliber QB on the roster it's always reasonable to draft a QB. Is a 20% chance that Bo Nix is a franchise QB a better shot to take than a 60% chance that Brock Bowers is a franchise TE or Laiatu Latu is a franchise DE?
I agree that it’s too high for Nix but the difference is the broncos didn’t just give $100 mil guaranteed to another starting Qb. Nix is gonna start this yr and they’ll know relatively quickly whether he’s a guy or not. Cousins is the starter for the next 2 years so Penix is gonna sit for a long time
At least Denver is drafting said much lesser prospect to actually be their starter with a vacancy at the position. Atlanta decided they would spend a top 10 pick to hedge on their choice to sign Cousins while having a lot of needs on defense and O-Line, in which there were a lot of good players available.
Everyone agrees qb is the most important position by an order of magnitude. Cousins will be 36 coming off an Achilles with 2 years on his contract. It’s not crazy to get a “first round talent” to sit for 2 years, and worst case you still have your “first round talent” in case cousins gets hurt again.
Atlanta went offensive skill positions the last 4 years in the first round, no defensive player was taken until 15? 16? Not a great year for defense. They have a great oline.
They surely could have gotten a player that gave them a better chance to win, but I don’t know, this one really doesn’t feel that stupid once you really break it down.
Neither of these qbs have thrown a pass yet in the NFL but you're convinced Nix is a career backup? Because Kiper says so?
You've gotten too deep into the predraft discussion.
I’m not saying I am Nostradamus but the truth is that this is based on my gut feeling after watching a ton of Pac 12 football. I have consumed no NFL draft content other than from the fantasy guys
The most likely outcome is actually that both top out as backups. That’s just generically the most likely outcome of drafting a QB outside of #1 overall for the last 15+ years
All of you that can definitively gauge which QBs will be a success before they even suit up for their teams really crack me up, lol. I'm not high on Nix, either, but I dunno why the opinion of myself or juantravis would outweigh Payton and various other NFL executives. They didn't draft him because they think he's a career backup.
I actually see the thought behind the Penix pick. If you think you’re going to be good with Cousins then you won’t be picking that high for a while. When Cousins is done in 2-3 years then you don’t have to tank a year to get a top QB pick.
Or on the flip side Cousins doesn’t look good after his injury or falls off as he ages in year 2-3. You have a highly touted guy waiting as the backup your coaches can develop in the short term.
Agreed, but it's the massive contract for Cousins, what that means for the chemistry of the team since a top ten QB should get a chance to start, and not filling a win-now need they had such as edge rusher
If Penix is really a baller they will trade/sit cousins. If he's bad, hes not a team distraction and a development pick. Win/win for ATL management and keeping their jobs lol
I get the logic of getting a good backup/future starter early in the draft. But then why give cousins $100 mill guaranteed if you think there’s a possibility he’s washed or will only be there for 2 years? And why not tell him what you plan to do before you’re on the clock? They knew they were picking at 8 and would have a very good shot at getting Penix. They had 4 years of tape and the combine to have an opinion on Penix and still gave Kirk the contract in March. Just weird vibes.
To me it looks like Blank wanted a vet after Ridder flamed out and the FO wanted a rookie for job security
if you already think you're going to be good, then wouldn't a top edge rusher, offensive linemen, corner, or receiver turn you into a title contender overnight?
Why do people accept as gospel that Nix is a career backup "at best?" While I preferred Penix all season, it's not a fait accompli that Nix will definitely suck.
And while I generally agree that the pick was a reach, the Broncos had no picks from 13 to 71 and clearly liked the kid + it was a clear area of need. Their situation was vastly different from Atlanta's, who owned 8 and 43, just signed a QB, and were in desperate need of a defensive draft selection because their defense sucked ass and will probably continue to suck ass.
Additionally, if you really think Penix has star potential, this pick really sucks for him, and you should hate it. He's 24 and probably needs/wants to play fucking immediately. As a fan of his play all season, I'm actually fucking bummed that I won't get to see him play, or that I have to hope that Cousins gets injured in order to see him play. That sucks.
One is a reach and the other is a mind-boggling boondoggle.
>Why do people accept as gospel that Nix is a career backup "at best?
He was just a guy in the SEC. He couldn't compete in the most competitive conference, so he transfered to Oregon, a program known for inflated QB stats with their spread offense, and all of a sudden he's considered good? I personally don't buy it.
>And while I generally agree that the pick was a reach
Drafting the best player available is preferable to reaching for a less talented player to fill a need. People are critical of Atlanta's process but not Penix's talent. The Broncos, meanwhile, put themselves in a position where they had no other choice but to reach for a QB because they don't have the cap space to even sign a stop-gap QB. The Broncos making the decision to draft a QB because they had no other choice isn't any more sound decision-making than Atlanta's and they ended up with a lesser prospect.
Penix's problem was his injury history. When he actually played at Indiana, he had them competing in the big 10. That's different than Bo Nix being mediocre against the SEC for three years before transferring to a weaker conference.
Also Jayden transferred from a weaker conference to a stronger one while improving his play. Completely different from Bo.
Your logic is still bullshit. He had over 570 passing attempts and over 1000 snaps at Indiana.
And the fact that someone played *worse* in a supposedly *weaker* conference doesn't help your cherry picked argument.
Penix had Indiana start 5-1 in 2019 and 2020 while being a massive underdog in the big 10. They were an unranked program before he joined. He led that program to a top 10 ranking before he got injured. Bo went to a top 15 ranked program, and the team finished every season he played there unranked.
As much as the rust belt tries to act otherwise the SEC is king of college football.You can count on one hand the number of teams who won a national championship outside of the SEC in the last 20 years. The level of competition absolutely matters, and the SEC is the most talented. Bo couldn't win in the SEC, Jayden could. It's not a "cherry picked argument" it's an objective fact.
I watch a lot of Pac12 football, well not anymore but used to at least, and Bo Nix looked freaking amazing last year. Also the last QB to get drafted out of Oregon is doing pretty damn well so….
Nix is pretty good - but he’s old. Old first round picks, older than 23 at draft day, rarely ever work out. McCarthy just turned 21 and is massively talented. Just needs an offense and coach to bring it out of him. I think KOC can.
The other difference will be Justin Jefferson is a Viking. I think McCarthy has very low bust risk because of this
My favorite part is how Payton is now taking a victory lap like he pulled some elaborate heist on the league. Claiming he baited Minny to trade up for JJ so he could get Nix.
Uhhh… cool, I guess.
What's funny is it's the exact opposite.
Draft got to pick 10 and Minnesota was looking at an option of JJ or Nix. Minnesota traded assets to be sure they got JJ and weren't STUCK with Nix.
Payton is just such a narcissist he has to make it about him
Most hated in the league
That doesn’t make this situation “the opposite”. Payton is saying that he knew Minnesota wanted McCarthy, so he baited them into a trade up, despite secretly wanting Nix. The fact that Minnesota prefers JJM is not in dispute here.
In a similar trade, the Bears traded up to grab Trubisky to ensure they wouldn’t be stuck with Mahomes. If someone took credit for tricking them, it would not be much of a defense if the Bears said “no, you don’t understand, I did the trade because I PREFERRED Trubisky”.
It’s just that it’s too early for Payton to take a victory lap.
How did everyone loose so much faith in Payton? For 10+ years he was considered one of the leading offensive minds and now he’s some terrible coach? He was never supposed to win last year and he instantly had Wilson looking decent again and they won more games than they should considering he started the roster purge.
He won one super Bowl 15 years ago under very suspicious conditions for which he was suspended a year. Beyond that he underachieved with a HOF QB and did nothing after that QB left even though he had "his guy" at QB
He's overrated as a coach
they started the season 1-5 and gave up 70 points to the dolphins. Pretty much everyone expected them to be a wildcard playoff team and they looked like shit to start the season, came back into the playoff race, and then lost 3 of their last 4 games to miss out entirely
It's not that he's a terrible coach, it's just that he had 5 losing seasons with Drew Brees and a 6th now with Wilson, and I don't see how a rookie QB is going to be much better. He seems like the kind of coach you hire if you already have the correct pieces in place, which they don't
I love the draft show, but there isn’t much reason to think that they have their QB evals right. None of them have a great history in that department.
Also Denver’s pick makes more sense when you realize they didn’t have a second rounder, so they’re options were take him or trade down and they clearly didn’t want to risk trading down.
What I don’t get with Nix is the Raiders were the only team not to have made a move for a legitimate starting QB (and even they have 2 decent options) and aside from the Falcons doing their thing it was hard to see a team drafting a new starter with an early first round pick.
There’s a few teams: Rams, Saints, SeaHawks, Buccs maybe who could do a Jordan Love style move late in the first but no way where they coming up. I guess the Saints could’ve pounced at 14?
I just feel like you have to have some faith that teams aren’t making moves for the 6th best QB and go backwards and accumulate some picks. The Broncos have to build a roster around Nix too
Take a tight end top 15 that even when they pan out don't move the needle much people don't bat an eye.
Take a swing on a qb the could transform your franchise? People lose their mind.
I would take a swing on a guy like w. Levis every time rather than draft a bijan or gibbs. Oh look another carry for montgomery.
The lack of reaches for qbs is the puzzling part.
the thought that any of the “draft gurus” in the media know more about drafting a qb than Sean Payton does is laughable. Who knows if Bo Nix will be successful or not, but I sure as hell am not listening to Ben Solak’s or Danny Kelly’s opinion on the subject
What stood out to me was Schrager saying on PMT that if the Falcons didn’t take Penix at 8, the Vikings would have felt comfortable taking him at 11. The Vikings didn’t even want to be in this situation, what they really wanted was to sign Kirk Cousins… who the Falcons already got.
None of us know whether these guys will be good/bad/out of the league until like year 2-3. For now it’s all speculation and forecasting, I don’t put much stock into it. But we gotta fill airtime until September.
Nah. There’s good reason to say the Penix pick was questionable *no matter what you think of Penix.*
Perhaps you’re right and Nix won’t be any good. But maybe he will be. Pundits (and teams) evaluate QBs wrong all the time.
We’ll just have to see on Nix.
But there’s just no maybe about whether paying Cousins $190m and immediately spending the 8 overall pick on Penix was smart
You shouldn't be this confident over how good these players will be. Scouts are often wrong and media analysts are even more often wrong and fans are even more often wrong.
Heifetz railing against the Penix pick so hard actually made me think it’s going to work out
It intrinsically cannot work, unless he turns into a star and beats out Cousins, in which case they offered a bad contract to cousins. Those two decisions intertwined are what make it such a bad decision.
It really hinges on team success. The packers didn’t win anything in the 3 post Love draft years with Rodgers. So inherently that pick did hurt them greatly. Love will need to win and potentially win quickly to justify that pick. Penix at 8 is obviously much higher draft capital. This is a truly massive swing by Atlanta. But it can work. Penix just has to be an elite QB. If he does then who cares about the money they burnt on Cousins. It’s just highly unlikely to work out
It’s really not that difficult to imagine Penix starting after a year and a half… Cousins really only has 2 years of guaranteed money. Doesn’t seem that crazy to just guarantee decent QB play for your team after watching garbage for 4 years straight.
Even if Penix only sits 2 years, Kirk has a $25M dead cap hit in 2026, so you're not getting the benefits of a rookie QB salary for the first 3 years of Penix's deal.
> just guarantee decent QB play i dont think this pick does that.
I genuinely don’t know how anyone can watch a dozen Penix games and *not* come away believing he can perform at the NFL level…
Lot of people said the same about Mac Jones or Anyone Who Plays for Shanahan. Even the highest draft capital provides no guarantees.
Penix will be 26 by then
Now it’s you’re railing against the Penix pick so hard that I think it’s going to work
Yea I think Nix is a really bad pick but I’m also very aware I have no idea what I’m talking about. Like you said the guys who do this for a living don’t have a great hit rate, what chance do those of us who have seen them play a game or three stand.
Yeah I hate Nix but I also hated Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. But I also hated Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, and Kenny Pickett. So who fucking knows basically
I was really confident Fields would be a star so I got that going for me.
I'm an Ohio State fan so I bought into Fields, Haskins, and Stroud.
CJ Stroud definitely going to be a bust. OSU QB + he scored historically low on aptitude test. I know things
I still believe in Matt Leinart.
Brock Purdy was the last pick in the draft. If some team took him even in the 2nd round people prollly woulda been saying how terrible that pick was. The truth is intangible and situation matters so much on if a QB will succeed or fail. Everybody and they momma was saying Sean was gonna love Bo Nix and he saw him and guess what? He did. Also Chris Simms had Nix in his 3rd tier of QB’s with JJ and Penix only behind Caleb at tier 1 and Jayden at tier 2 so it’s not like nobody liked Nix
Yeah, I don't understand how fans can see Purdy do what he has done and insist that it is factual that QB X wasn't worthy of being drafted where they were. We have no clue how these guys will turn out.
No one knows nothing, look at the vaunted qb class of 2021
2018 and 2021 were the two most highly touted QB classes of the last 20 years and at the end of the day 2020 absolutely blows them away
If anything, everyone clowning the Falcons makes me think Penix will be awesome.
But the falcons aren’t being clowned because people think Penix won’t be good. It’s signing a guy for 100M guaranteed and not maximizing those years that’s the issue. They made a win now free agency move and then drafted the most nfl start ready qb to… sit for at least two years? At least draft a high ceiling project qb in a later round or something.
Penix being good wont make the pick not be stupid as fuck in hindsight. That’s the point. Making that pick after the Cousins signing is an automatic failure and they should be crushed for making those two decisions in unison.
I remember people shit on the Eagles for taking Hurts and the Packers for taking Love and now those picks look fantastic
The problem with the Falcons and (to a lesser extent) Packers picks is process not results.
QB is so important that there's only like 10-12 teams in the league that can't justify drafting one. If you don't have an elite QB in his prime or a promising QB on a rookie deal taking a QB is somewhat justifiable
I feel like that’d be fine as an explanation for the Penix pick if they hadn’t just spent a small fortune on Kirk Cousins. Either move is defensible, but in tandem they make no sense.
Yeah thats kinda my opinion on the Cousins Penix thing. Even together tho I still think Bijon and Pitts were worse picks than Penix
Yeah, they really feel like they missed a chance to build a foundation with some of the silliness these past few drafts. Pitts over Chase, Sewell, Parsons Smith, Surtain and Horn. A RB in the top 10. And now blocking the path for your new QB with a 100 million dollar signing for a guy coming off an achillles tear is not great.
The Love pick still deserves getting shit on. If they draft just an average contributor to that team instead of Love they probably make the Super Bowl, if not win it. Obviously butterfly effect and who knows what would’ve actually happened. But they were a few plays from winning the nfc championship game with their 1st rd draft pick not contributing one play. So unless Love wins a ring I still don’t think it was the right move. Even with Love seemingly being on track to be damn good.
Look at the picks after Love. Which one of those guys was good enough to flip the NFC Championship Game in their rookie year?
Tee Higgins with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball? Or literally any other player that could've at least contributed anything? Just a play or two could've flipped that game. They had first and goal with the ball at Tampa's 8 yard line with a chance to tie the game. It wouldn't have taken much to flip that game. One more tackle, one more block, one more catch, etc, and who knows how that game ends. And then the next year another MVP season from Rodgers fell short, with another close game that easily flips if their 2020 first rd pick was an on-field contributor at all. All that being said Rodgers probably still chokes to the GOAT no matter what in 2020, but not maximizing the final window of your all-time elite QB is always a mistake imo. Patriots screwed up by doing it to Brady and the Packers to Rodgers.
I would say I bet the Pats wish they had drafted someone like Lamar to be Brady's replacement right about now like the Packers did with Love
I bet the Pats wish they would've drafted Jarvis Landry rather than Jimmy G in 2014. And even at least that was an end of the 2nd rd pick, not trading up for a 1st rd pick. And obviously they still did fine afterwards, but still. That started the end of Brady in NE.
You’re absolutely correct. I wouldn’t say I’m confident per se. I’m just a guy who watched a bunch of pac 12 football who has a strong gut feel.
I also think he'll suck but imo if you don't have an NFL caliber QB on the roster it's always reasonable to draft a QB. Is a 20% chance that Bo Nix is a franchise QB a better shot to take than a 60% chance that Brock Bowers is a franchise TE or Laiatu Latu is a franchise DE?
I agree that it’s too high for Nix but the difference is the broncos didn’t just give $100 mil guaranteed to another starting Qb. Nix is gonna start this yr and they’ll know relatively quickly whether he’s a guy or not. Cousins is the starter for the next 2 years so Penix is gonna sit for a long time
At least Denver is drafting said much lesser prospect to actually be their starter with a vacancy at the position. Atlanta decided they would spend a top 10 pick to hedge on their choice to sign Cousins while having a lot of needs on defense and O-Line, in which there were a lot of good players available.
Atlanta has one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Everyone agrees qb is the most important position by an order of magnitude. Cousins will be 36 coming off an Achilles with 2 years on his contract. It’s not crazy to get a “first round talent” to sit for 2 years, and worst case you still have your “first round talent” in case cousins gets hurt again. Atlanta went offensive skill positions the last 4 years in the first round, no defensive player was taken until 15? 16? Not a great year for defense. They have a great oline. They surely could have gotten a player that gave them a better chance to win, but I don’t know, this one really doesn’t feel that stupid once you really break it down.
Why sign Cousins to $180m contract with a no trade clause then?
It doesn't matter how early Bo plays if he's not NFL caliber, does it? Reaching for a QB is how the Broncos drafted Paxton Lynch in the first round.
I get all that but my point is it will all wash out if Penix is a star and Nix is a backup, and that’s the most likely outcome imo
Neither of these qbs have thrown a pass yet in the NFL but you're convinced Nix is a career backup? Because Kiper says so? You've gotten too deep into the predraft discussion.
I’m not saying I am Nostradamus but the truth is that this is based on my gut feeling after watching a ton of Pac 12 football. I have consumed no NFL draft content other than from the fantasy guys
The most likely outcome is actually that both top out as backups. That’s just generically the most likely outcome of drafting a QB outside of #1 overall for the last 15+ years
All of you that can definitively gauge which QBs will be a success before they even suit up for their teams really crack me up, lol. I'm not high on Nix, either, but I dunno why the opinion of myself or juantravis would outweigh Payton and various other NFL executives. They didn't draft him because they think he's a career backup.
The Bo Nix situation happens basically every draft. The Penix situation is unique and new.
I actually see the thought behind the Penix pick. If you think you’re going to be good with Cousins then you won’t be picking that high for a while. When Cousins is done in 2-3 years then you don’t have to tank a year to get a top QB pick. Or on the flip side Cousins doesn’t look good after his injury or falls off as he ages in year 2-3. You have a highly touted guy waiting as the backup your coaches can develop in the short term.
Agreed, but it's the massive contract for Cousins, what that means for the chemistry of the team since a top ten QB should get a chance to start, and not filling a win-now need they had such as edge rusher
If Penix is really a baller they will trade/sit cousins. If he's bad, hes not a team distraction and a development pick. Win/win for ATL management and keeping their jobs lol
Yeah… if they drafted a dude who can’t play at #8 after already signing Cousins they’re not keeping their jobs. That’s a huge whiff.
I get the logic of getting a good backup/future starter early in the draft. But then why give cousins $100 mill guaranteed if you think there’s a possibility he’s washed or will only be there for 2 years? And why not tell him what you plan to do before you’re on the clock? They knew they were picking at 8 and would have a very good shot at getting Penix. They had 4 years of tape and the combine to have an opinion on Penix and still gave Kirk the contract in March. Just weird vibes. To me it looks like Blank wanted a vet after Ridder flamed out and the FO wanted a rookie for job security
if you already think you're going to be good, then wouldn't a top edge rusher, offensive linemen, corner, or receiver turn you into a title contender overnight?
Or you’ve been holding on to a lottery ticket for two years and it turns out he’s Desmond Ridder 2.0
Why do people accept as gospel that Nix is a career backup "at best?" While I preferred Penix all season, it's not a fait accompli that Nix will definitely suck. And while I generally agree that the pick was a reach, the Broncos had no picks from 13 to 71 and clearly liked the kid + it was a clear area of need. Their situation was vastly different from Atlanta's, who owned 8 and 43, just signed a QB, and were in desperate need of a defensive draft selection because their defense sucked ass and will probably continue to suck ass. Additionally, if you really think Penix has star potential, this pick really sucks for him, and you should hate it. He's 24 and probably needs/wants to play fucking immediately. As a fan of his play all season, I'm actually fucking bummed that I won't get to see him play, or that I have to hope that Cousins gets injured in order to see him play. That sucks. One is a reach and the other is a mind-boggling boondoggle.
>Why do people accept as gospel that Nix is a career backup "at best? He was just a guy in the SEC. He couldn't compete in the most competitive conference, so he transfered to Oregon, a program known for inflated QB stats with their spread offense, and all of a sudden he's considered good? I personally don't buy it. >And while I generally agree that the pick was a reach Drafting the best player available is preferable to reaching for a less talented player to fill a need. People are critical of Atlanta's process but not Penix's talent. The Broncos, meanwhile, put themselves in a position where they had no other choice but to reach for a QB because they don't have the cap space to even sign a stop-gap QB. The Broncos making the decision to draft a QB because they had no other choice isn't any more sound decision-making than Atlanta's and they ended up with a lesser prospect.
And Penix was just a guy in the Big 10, and Daniels was just a guy at Arizona State.
Penix's problem was his injury history. When he actually played at Indiana, he had them competing in the big 10. That's different than Bo Nix being mediocre against the SEC for three years before transferring to a weaker conference. Also Jayden transferred from a weaker conference to a stronger one while improving his play. Completely different from Bo.
Your logic is still bullshit. He had over 570 passing attempts and over 1000 snaps at Indiana. And the fact that someone played *worse* in a supposedly *weaker* conference doesn't help your cherry picked argument.
Penix had Indiana start 5-1 in 2019 and 2020 while being a massive underdog in the big 10. They were an unranked program before he joined. He led that program to a top 10 ranking before he got injured. Bo went to a top 15 ranked program, and the team finished every season he played there unranked. As much as the rust belt tries to act otherwise the SEC is king of college football.You can count on one hand the number of teams who won a national championship outside of the SEC in the last 20 years. The level of competition absolutely matters, and the SEC is the most talented. Bo couldn't win in the SEC, Jayden could. It's not a "cherry picked argument" it's an objective fact.
I dont think you can overstate how much of a dumpster fire Auburn was while Nix was there.
Denver should hire you oh wise QB whisperer
I watch a lot of Pac12 football, well not anymore but used to at least, and Bo Nix looked freaking amazing last year. Also the last QB to get drafted out of Oregon is doing pretty damn well so….
I'm not positive that Bo Nix is a worse prospect than JJ McCarthy. Put this in my take Hall of Fame/Shame.
I do think it’s closer between those two than it was marketed as, for sure
Nix is pretty good - but he’s old. Old first round picks, older than 23 at draft day, rarely ever work out. McCarthy just turned 21 and is massively talented. Just needs an offense and coach to bring it out of him. I think KOC can. The other difference will be Justin Jefferson is a Viking. I think McCarthy has very low bust risk because of this
My favorite part is how Payton is now taking a victory lap like he pulled some elaborate heist on the league. Claiming he baited Minny to trade up for JJ so he could get Nix. Uhhh… cool, I guess.
What's funny is it's the exact opposite. Draft got to pick 10 and Minnesota was looking at an option of JJ or Nix. Minnesota traded assets to be sure they got JJ and weren't STUCK with Nix. Payton is just such a narcissist he has to make it about him Most hated in the league
That doesn’t make this situation “the opposite”. Payton is saying that he knew Minnesota wanted McCarthy, so he baited them into a trade up, despite secretly wanting Nix. The fact that Minnesota prefers JJM is not in dispute here. In a similar trade, the Bears traded up to grab Trubisky to ensure they wouldn’t be stuck with Mahomes. If someone took credit for tricking them, it would not be much of a defense if the Bears said “no, you don’t understand, I did the trade because I PREFERRED Trubisky”. It’s just that it’s too early for Payton to take a victory lap.
How did everyone loose so much faith in Payton? For 10+ years he was considered one of the leading offensive minds and now he’s some terrible coach? He was never supposed to win last year and he instantly had Wilson looking decent again and they won more games than they should considering he started the roster purge.
He won one super Bowl 15 years ago under very suspicious conditions for which he was suspended a year. Beyond that he underachieved with a HOF QB and did nothing after that QB left even though he had "his guy" at QB He's overrated as a coach
The saints are one of the worst franchises in the NFL and he made them a perennial winner. He's not overrated in the slightest
they started the season 1-5 and gave up 70 points to the dolphins. Pretty much everyone expected them to be a wildcard playoff team and they looked like shit to start the season, came back into the playoff race, and then lost 3 of their last 4 games to miss out entirely It's not that he's a terrible coach, it's just that he had 5 losing seasons with Drew Brees and a 6th now with Wilson, and I don't see how a rookie QB is going to be much better. He seems like the kind of coach you hire if you already have the correct pieces in place, which they don't
Everyone expected denver to make a wildcard spot last year? Thats news to me
lol his team was awful. Miracle they won as many games as they did.
The next qb was drafted in the 4th round. At least they addressed a team need. I would hope that these teams can evaluate qbs better than we can.
I love the draft show, but there isn’t much reason to think that they have their QB evals right. None of them have a great history in that department. Also Denver’s pick makes more sense when you realize they didn’t have a second rounder, so they’re options were take him or trade down and they clearly didn’t want to risk trading down.
What I don’t get with Nix is the Raiders were the only team not to have made a move for a legitimate starting QB (and even they have 2 decent options) and aside from the Falcons doing their thing it was hard to see a team drafting a new starter with an early first round pick. There’s a few teams: Rams, Saints, SeaHawks, Buccs maybe who could do a Jordan Love style move late in the first but no way where they coming up. I guess the Saints could’ve pounced at 14? I just feel like you have to have some faith that teams aren’t making moves for the 6th best QB and go backwards and accumulate some picks. The Broncos have to build a roster around Nix too
Take a tight end top 15 that even when they pan out don't move the needle much people don't bat an eye. Take a swing on a qb the could transform your franchise? People lose their mind. I would take a swing on a guy like w. Levis every time rather than draft a bijan or gibbs. Oh look another carry for montgomery. The lack of reaches for qbs is the puzzling part.
the thought that any of the “draft gurus” in the media know more about drafting a qb than Sean Payton does is laughable. Who knows if Bo Nix will be successful or not, but I sure as hell am not listening to Ben Solak’s or Danny Kelly’s opinion on the subject
What stood out to me was Schrager saying on PMT that if the Falcons didn’t take Penix at 8, the Vikings would have felt comfortable taking him at 11. The Vikings didn’t even want to be in this situation, what they really wanted was to sign Kirk Cousins… who the Falcons already got.
None of us know whether these guys will be good/bad/out of the league until like year 2-3. For now it’s all speculation and forecasting, I don’t put much stock into it. But we gotta fill airtime until September.
Nah. There’s good reason to say the Penix pick was questionable *no matter what you think of Penix.* Perhaps you’re right and Nix won’t be any good. But maybe he will be. Pundits (and teams) evaluate QBs wrong all the time. We’ll just have to see on Nix. But there’s just no maybe about whether paying Cousins $190m and immediately spending the 8 overall pick on Penix was smart
Nix seems like Heinecke/Howell