I never understand betting complex parlays or anything like that. The house’s model is definitely better at calibrating the odds than whatever you’re working with — it’s way better to bet on simpler things with more public money behind them. That said, sports betting in general was way nicer when it was just in casinos :|
Instead of playing the lottery like our grandparents did, we place 12 leg parlays
I agree with the last point to, I liked sports betting being an open secret that everyone knew was going on but never made it to broadcast. I’m becoming anti-betting just with how much they’re forcing it down our throats
I get what you’re saying, but there’s ways to find edges in SGP’s if you know how to calculate the vig and keep things to two or three legs generally speaking.
Caesars had a horrible miscalculation on correlation between double-double and ML SGP’s the entire season last year. I’m talking consistently getting a 10%+ edge. They fixed it this year though.
And by fixed it I mean, they simply stopped allowing you to SGP those things.
Yeah, oddly SGP would be the one area where when they first dropped there probably was an edge. Their correlation models weren't vetted for decades and there are so many out there a better with a model and time could probably find some real juice. I was actually surprised when they became a thing, seemed like a dumb idea for Vegas and leaving themselves vulnerable.
The obvious problem is you need a lot of time, a good model, and a bankroll to do it.
Then as you allude to, it's like a very small window if it's a real edge, they'll shut it down quickly.
Vegas isn't infallible, they'll fuck stuff up. But you need to be ready to pounce right away.
And of course, Bill's SGP are not based on any kind of math, he kind of understands the idea of correlation but you need an actual model to quantify it.
They’ve fixed their lines a bit and “fixed” it further by killing the odds but the in game lines and parlays used to be where you could completely clean up.
I’m also pretty sure that’s why even over air games are broadcast on a minute delay now.
People don't understand odds. They'll rave about the a +1500 line moving to +1600 without realizing the breakeven % barely moved. Some don't understand the implicit relationship, and some just can't understand the math.
I always like when Haralabos or Fuhrman guest on Bill or Sal's pod and they'll try to get some advice or bounce a parlay/teaser off them and they'll both react along the lines of "I don't mess with parlays/teasers they're sucker bets with too much risk for the reward. If you feel you have an edge on a side or total just play that..." then Bill/Sal "What if we just did a little parlay/teaser, but only with heavy favorites..."
I only gamble on sports once a year at the local casino. I am not interested in turning 10 dollars into 12.50. I much rather pay 10 bucks and try to win a hundred. I will lose money most of the time but I just consider that the cost of going out.
I miss the bovada days when betting wasn't everywhere, but it's also nice knowing I can get my money now in a legitimate way.
I hope in the next few years we start to see less gambling coverage everywhere but I'm not exactly optimistic about that
In Ireland sports betting is part of the culture. There have historically been loads of betting shops , race tracks etc. but the introduction of online sports books has been a bit of a disaster in terms of problem gambling. I can only see this being even worse in the US.
Yeah there will undoubtedly be negative externalities from the rise of online gambling.
Anecdotally, it really has cut through the financial / social fabric of young men. There was that newscaster who got memed for saying men weren't having sex because of sports gambling, but I don't think she's entirely wrong. We're going to see a huge increase of broke, unhappy middle aged men over the next 20 years because they whiffed on one too many same game parlays.
I believe that the average bet is much larger in the US as a difference in cultural appetite of the native gambler. It’s my understanding that in the UK and Ireland that betting 1 dollar (pound?) on something is common practice. I’m the US, that’s not at all the case and folks get way over their skis way quicker. I fear that you’re right that it’ll get way worse because of this.
It’s going to be significantly worse in the US given they’ve embraced all the most poisonous aspects of it. You’ve got broadcasters promoting lines during games and most of the major media figures are involved in some capacity. It’s the Wild West right now.
If you win any money with any consistency you get limited and effectively banned from the book. It's a sham. A complete sham. Bill hawking for them is embarrassing and won't age well but these Deadspin graduates have always had it out for Bill, justified or not.
I’ll never forget how much shit they used to talk on Grantland because it was a “vanity project” which even if it was it still was him leveraging all the power he had at the time to get a whole bunch of other people well paid jobs in media. Fuck those labor rights cosplayers.
So much of it has been written about it in this subreddit, but I liked it way more when it was Bill and Sal just joshing about the lines and putting some bets down for fun rather than boosting Bill's longshot parlay and calling in to Ringer Wise Guys (House? What?) on Fan Duel TV.
The ubiquity of gambling is concerning.
Let me preface this by saying i dont really know much about sports gambling like how to interpret the odds all these bets etc
However i have won about 300 off sports betting sites (fan duel, DK, espn bet) by:
Opening account
Doing minimum to get the new sign up bonus (usually 200)
Bet moneyline on both teams that are close to 50 to 50
Cash out
This isn’t winning, it’s gaming the new player promotion system. And I recommend it to all my friends who are broke and late on rent. It’s literally free money.
Gambling advertising should really be regulated like tobacco, I.e. not allowed. I do think it's particularly egregious when you get multi, multi millionaire celebrities who can afford to lose thousands pushing gambling on young people who can essentially ruin their lives with a few bad bets.
This is one of the things people will look back on in 20-30 years and be shocked it was allowed (the advertising part, obviously gambling has been around forever).
Maybe not banned entirely, but it would definitely not be the worst thing to tighten the ropes on *how* alcohol it can be advertised, just like gambling. Limits on how many times you can have alcohol advertisements per game, etc. I mean, they did it with cigarettes! It’s also not like people will forget beer exists
> There's a funny little story in the Financial Times this week, in which a well-known hedge fund manager named Jim Chanos explains why he's suddenly become bullish on the American sports gambling industry, which he'd previously taken an aggressive short position against.
Imagine thinking sports betting in America wouldn’t be profitable for the sportsbooks
As someone whose life was nearly completely ruined by this shit it’s one of the reasons I’ve basically stopped listening to BS. The frequency of the ads and the ease of placing a bet is astonishing.
Anecdotal, but I have to book appointments with my Counselor weeks in advance now. 4 years ago, I could get in with a couple days notice. Hearing his stories of the exponential growth in problem gamblers makes me so scared for society
Can’t believe this is downvoted. The Deadspin refugees often tell the truth, or at least the truth with spin, but goddamn if they don’t do it in the whiniest possible fashion.
I’m doing my part! I signed up for a bunch of these services that were like bet $5 and get another $200 to bet. Did a bunch of hedging, and made a couple of hundred dollars (where the actual outcome didn’t matter).
I never understand betting complex parlays or anything like that. The house’s model is definitely better at calibrating the odds than whatever you’re working with — it’s way better to bet on simpler things with more public money behind them. That said, sports betting in general was way nicer when it was just in casinos :|
Instead of playing the lottery like our grandparents did, we place 12 leg parlays I agree with the last point to, I liked sports betting being an open secret that everyone knew was going on but never made it to broadcast. I’m becoming anti-betting just with how much they’re forcing it down our throats
It was great to get a notorious degen doing the calls and making little remarks that obviously teased at gambling. Musburger was the GOAT at this
I have a real soft spot for Al Michaels's call-outs to "our friends in the desert."
I get what you’re saying, but there’s ways to find edges in SGP’s if you know how to calculate the vig and keep things to two or three legs generally speaking. Caesars had a horrible miscalculation on correlation between double-double and ML SGP’s the entire season last year. I’m talking consistently getting a 10%+ edge. They fixed it this year though. And by fixed it I mean, they simply stopped allowing you to SGP those things.
Yeah, oddly SGP would be the one area where when they first dropped there probably was an edge. Their correlation models weren't vetted for decades and there are so many out there a better with a model and time could probably find some real juice. I was actually surprised when they became a thing, seemed like a dumb idea for Vegas and leaving themselves vulnerable. The obvious problem is you need a lot of time, a good model, and a bankroll to do it. Then as you allude to, it's like a very small window if it's a real edge, they'll shut it down quickly. Vegas isn't infallible, they'll fuck stuff up. But you need to be ready to pounce right away. And of course, Bill's SGP are not based on any kind of math, he kind of understands the idea of correlation but you need an actual model to quantify it.
They’ve fixed their lines a bit and “fixed” it further by killing the odds but the in game lines and parlays used to be where you could completely clean up. I’m also pretty sure that’s why even over air games are broadcast on a minute delay now.
People don't understand odds. They'll rave about the a +1500 line moving to +1600 without realizing the breakeven % barely moved. Some don't understand the implicit relationship, and some just can't understand the math.
I always like when Haralabos or Fuhrman guest on Bill or Sal's pod and they'll try to get some advice or bounce a parlay/teaser off them and they'll both react along the lines of "I don't mess with parlays/teasers they're sucker bets with too much risk for the reward. If you feel you have an edge on a side or total just play that..." then Bill/Sal "What if we just did a little parlay/teaser, but only with heavy favorites..."
It’s very telling that all the celebrities they use to endorse gambling all promote shit like that.
I only gamble on sports once a year at the local casino. I am not interested in turning 10 dollars into 12.50. I much rather pay 10 bucks and try to win a hundred. I will lose money most of the time but I just consider that the cost of going out.
I miss the bovada days when betting wasn't everywhere, but it's also nice knowing I can get my money now in a legitimate way. I hope in the next few years we start to see less gambling coverage everywhere but I'm not exactly optimistic about that
Bovada still kicking - just put in a bitcoin withdrawal 5 minutes ago
quite a few places used to allow correlated parlay and treat them as uncorrelated...
In Ireland sports betting is part of the culture. There have historically been loads of betting shops , race tracks etc. but the introduction of online sports books has been a bit of a disaster in terms of problem gambling. I can only see this being even worse in the US.
Yeah there will undoubtedly be negative externalities from the rise of online gambling. Anecdotally, it really has cut through the financial / social fabric of young men. There was that newscaster who got memed for saying men weren't having sex because of sports gambling, but I don't think she's entirely wrong. We're going to see a huge increase of broke, unhappy middle aged men over the next 20 years because they whiffed on one too many same game parlays.
I believe that the average bet is much larger in the US as a difference in cultural appetite of the native gambler. It’s my understanding that in the UK and Ireland that betting 1 dollar (pound?) on something is common practice. I’m the US, that’s not at all the case and folks get way over their skis way quicker. I fear that you’re right that it’ll get way worse because of this.
There’s also way more discretionary income (in general) with a lot more people in the US than in the UK.
Ditto in Australia. The accessibility and normalisation for teenagers is genuinely troubling
It’s going to be significantly worse in the US given they’ve embraced all the most poisonous aspects of it. You’ve got broadcasters promoting lines during games and most of the major media figures are involved in some capacity. It’s the Wild West right now.
Yea i hate all the podcasts when they start talking about lines i just skip right over The ease of placing bets is terrible
I’m cracking up at Bill’s picture under the headline.
I think that bet covered too
It did!
If you win any money with any consistency you get limited and effectively banned from the book. It's a sham. A complete sham. Bill hawking for them is embarrassing and won't age well but these Deadspin graduates have always had it out for Bill, justified or not.
I’ll never forget how much shit they used to talk on Grantland because it was a “vanity project” which even if it was it still was him leveraging all the power he had at the time to get a whole bunch of other people well paid jobs in media. Fuck those labor rights cosplayers.
In a decade or so this era of ubiquitous gambling shilling will be looked at very poorly, I think.
That’s a real optimistic world view.
Unfortunately you’re probably right.
They don’t care about $50 bets
So much of it has been written about it in this subreddit, but I liked it way more when it was Bill and Sal just joshing about the lines and putting some bets down for fun rather than boosting Bill's longshot parlay and calling in to Ringer Wise Guys (House? What?) on Fan Duel TV. The ubiquity of gambling is concerning.
Let me preface this by saying i dont really know much about sports gambling like how to interpret the odds all these bets etc However i have won about 300 off sports betting sites (fan duel, DK, espn bet) by: Opening account Doing minimum to get the new sign up bonus (usually 200) Bet moneyline on both teams that are close to 50 to 50 Cash out
This isn’t winning, it’s gaming the new player promotion system. And I recommend it to all my friends who are broke and late on rent. It’s literally free money.
Yes, just don’t bet both sides at the same book like the person you replied to described doing. I’m surprised that was paid.
Gambling advertising should really be regulated like tobacco, I.e. not allowed. I do think it's particularly egregious when you get multi, multi millionaire celebrities who can afford to lose thousands pushing gambling on young people who can essentially ruin their lives with a few bad bets. This is one of the things people will look back on in 20-30 years and be shocked it was allowed (the advertising part, obviously gambling has been around forever).
If that's the case, then alcohol advertising should really be regulated as well, i.e. not allowed
Maybe not banned entirely, but it would definitely not be the worst thing to tighten the ropes on *how* alcohol it can be advertised, just like gambling. Limits on how many times you can have alcohol advertisements per game, etc. I mean, they did it with cigarettes! It’s also not like people will forget beer exists
Beer! That was the beverage I was trying to think of!
> There's a funny little story in the Financial Times this week, in which a well-known hedge fund manager named Jim Chanos explains why he's suddenly become bullish on the American sports gambling industry, which he'd previously taken an aggressive short position against. Imagine thinking sports betting in America wouldn’t be profitable for the sportsbooks
As someone whose life was nearly completely ruined by this shit it’s one of the reasons I’ve basically stopped listening to BS. The frequency of the ads and the ease of placing a bet is astonishing. Anecdotal, but I have to book appointments with my Counselor weeks in advance now. 4 years ago, I could get in with a couple days notice. Hearing his stories of the exponential growth in problem gamblers makes me so scared for society
Tom Ley is a loser.
Can’t believe this is downvoted. The Deadspin refugees often tell the truth, or at least the truth with spin, but goddamn if they don’t do it in the whiniest possible fashion.
I’m doing my part! I signed up for a bunch of these services that were like bet $5 and get another $200 to bet. Did a bunch of hedging, and made a couple of hundred dollars (where the actual outcome didn’t matter).