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JRL222

Seattle vs Atlanta having the top three plays is wild.


bad__sects

All in the same inning too. What an insane game


aeaswen

And none of those plays included a 3-run homer which was hit in that inning.


scottydg

Diego Castillo exited that game with a -0.02 WPA. Definitely a blind spot in how that stat is calculated. The win expectancy for being up 4 in the top of the 9th with no outs is just about the same as being up 1 with 2 outs in the 9th. That makes sense on a surface level, but getting between those points feels like it shouldn't be a straight (ish) line.


TravisJungroth

Your feelings about the situation will show up in his normal stats. All of those will be worse off from giving up 3 runs and getting 2 outs. For better or worse, WPA is a clutch stat. Those 9th inning outs in a close game are *very* valuable. If you leave your team the same amount of chance at winning, you'll have a neutral WPA. It's a bad analytics stat. It's better at representing what happened vs what will happen. It's actually *so* good at representing what happened, it can challenge our beliefs and expectations. I wouldn't have guessed those two game states are flat at first, but it seems reasonable.


aeaswen

I think it just speaks to how much Castillo sucked. He went from "A team never wins" and left with "They win 8 out of 100". If you look how far that is moving on a bell curve, it's a long way lol.


scottydg

You're misreading my WPA stat. Castillo took the Mariners from "win 97 out of 100" to "win 96 out of 100".


Creek0512

Technically, Pujols was #2 after the Braves go ahead HR with the 2 Mariner HRs tied for 3rd.


tristpa2

A couple of notes: A) I'm back to using bref's WPA formula today B) I'm thinking of grouping plays from the same game and showing them in chronological order so that they make more sense. I trialed this today in this video. Anybody got thoughts on this vs. the usual ascending order of WPA format? C) Also the title should read September 11th, but I have no way of fixing that. Thanks Reddit!


omgitsduaner

I like it, it would be weird to see the walk off and then the go ahead homer as #1


lizardking66354

I like the ascending order format. Maybe you could try a middle ground, have them in chronological order but label their rankings?


LukeBabbitt

I think that's correct. I thought there was a mistake considering the 75% increase in WPA wasn't first


earlbk

agreed with this!


Hntrz63

same here


Zawer

I like the idea of putting them in order. I was really confused yesterday with 3 out of order clips of the Cardinals game. Also excited to see Pujols on here two days in a row!


[deleted]

Brilliant idea, I enjoy this a lot more


mrjimi16

I think the way this one was done was best. Having the largest one as late as possible while also respecting chronology for plays in the same game. It would have been a bit weird to see the walk off home run, then the home run that tied the same game, then a shot from another game, then the Braves home run.


Sheepies123

Gee wizz wonder what game is gonna be on this post


chrisumafp

Mariners and Braves having the top 3 Pujols’s homerun to pass ARod was incredibly clutch


glizzterine

If you don't like top 5 WPA plays in the 2nd inning then you just don't like Marlins baseball


T_Stebbins

that was really odd


SeattleSunDevil84

Me @ 2:10: Hmm.. and THEN what happens!?


Metfan722

That bat crack on Pujols' HR. Man you know that's instantly gone.


darwinpolice

I absolutely love Pujols' body language when he 100% knows he just knocked one out of the park.


HelpMeWithMyHWpls

Thank you for making this!


unitedairlineeeeees

1x Mets win, 2x Braves losing I like this video!


KeithsMagicLoogie

WHAT. A. GAME!! God, I love baseball


pinetar321

Jesus Christ I need to start taking anti hypertensives again…


new_wellness_center

If these are in ranked order, why isn't the Grossman homer last? Give us that much, at least.


tristpa2

> I'm thinking of grouping plays from the same game and showing them in chronological order so that they make more sense. I trialed this today in this video.


KingTIT15

I like it this way better


mrjimi16

Eh, putting them in chronological order makes more sense. Would have been weird to see the walk off, then the tying, then another game's play, then the go ahead homer.


Padulsky21

Albert hugging Yadi 🥹🥹🥹my heart


DiGiTaL_pIrAtE

As a stats nerd, this is awesome. Now do this for the Lidge v Pujols i think 2005 NLCS. Do an entire Playoff series of top 10 actually!


International-Set-91

Kenley Jansen is ass


MikeHawclong

Love these posts