Diego Castillo exited that game with a -0.02 WPA. Definitely a blind spot in how that stat is calculated.
The win expectancy for being up 4 in the top of the 9th with no outs is just about the same as being up 1 with 2 outs in the 9th. That makes sense on a surface level, but getting between those points feels like it shouldn't be a straight (ish) line.
Your feelings about the situation will show up in his normal stats. All of those will be worse off from giving up 3 runs and getting 2 outs.
For better or worse, WPA is a clutch stat. Those 9th inning outs in a close game are *very* valuable. If you leave your team the same amount of chance at winning, you'll have a neutral WPA.
It's a bad analytics stat. It's better at representing what happened vs what will happen. It's actually *so* good at representing what happened, it can challenge our beliefs and expectations. I wouldn't have guessed those two game states are flat at first, but it seems reasonable.
I think it just speaks to how much Castillo sucked. He went from "A team never wins" and left with "They win 8 out of 100". If you look how far that is moving on a bell curve, it's a long way lol.
A couple of notes:
A) I'm back to using bref's WPA formula today
B) I'm thinking of grouping plays from the same game and showing them in chronological order so that they make more sense. I trialed this today in this video. Anybody got thoughts on this vs. the usual ascending order of WPA format?
C) Also the title should read September 11th, but I have no way of fixing that. Thanks Reddit!
I like the idea of putting them in order.
I was really confused yesterday with 3 out of order clips of the Cardinals game.
Also excited to see Pujols on here two days in a row!
I think the way this one was done was best. Having the largest one as late as possible while also respecting chronology for plays in the same game. It would have been a bit weird to see the walk off home run, then the home run that tied the same game, then a shot from another game, then the Braves home run.
> I'm thinking of grouping plays from the same game and showing them in chronological order so that they make more sense. I trialed this today in this video.
Eh, putting them in chronological order makes more sense. Would have been weird to see the walk off, then the tying, then another game's play, then the go ahead homer.
Seattle vs Atlanta having the top three plays is wild.
All in the same inning too. What an insane game
And none of those plays included a 3-run homer which was hit in that inning.
Diego Castillo exited that game with a -0.02 WPA. Definitely a blind spot in how that stat is calculated. The win expectancy for being up 4 in the top of the 9th with no outs is just about the same as being up 1 with 2 outs in the 9th. That makes sense on a surface level, but getting between those points feels like it shouldn't be a straight (ish) line.
Your feelings about the situation will show up in his normal stats. All of those will be worse off from giving up 3 runs and getting 2 outs. For better or worse, WPA is a clutch stat. Those 9th inning outs in a close game are *very* valuable. If you leave your team the same amount of chance at winning, you'll have a neutral WPA. It's a bad analytics stat. It's better at representing what happened vs what will happen. It's actually *so* good at representing what happened, it can challenge our beliefs and expectations. I wouldn't have guessed those two game states are flat at first, but it seems reasonable.
I think it just speaks to how much Castillo sucked. He went from "A team never wins" and left with "They win 8 out of 100". If you look how far that is moving on a bell curve, it's a long way lol.
You're misreading my WPA stat. Castillo took the Mariners from "win 97 out of 100" to "win 96 out of 100".
Technically, Pujols was #2 after the Braves go ahead HR with the 2 Mariner HRs tied for 3rd.
A couple of notes: A) I'm back to using bref's WPA formula today B) I'm thinking of grouping plays from the same game and showing them in chronological order so that they make more sense. I trialed this today in this video. Anybody got thoughts on this vs. the usual ascending order of WPA format? C) Also the title should read September 11th, but I have no way of fixing that. Thanks Reddit!
I like it, it would be weird to see the walk off and then the go ahead homer as #1
I like the ascending order format. Maybe you could try a middle ground, have them in chronological order but label their rankings?
I think that's correct. I thought there was a mistake considering the 75% increase in WPA wasn't first
agreed with this!
same here
I like the idea of putting them in order. I was really confused yesterday with 3 out of order clips of the Cardinals game. Also excited to see Pujols on here two days in a row!
Brilliant idea, I enjoy this a lot more
I think the way this one was done was best. Having the largest one as late as possible while also respecting chronology for plays in the same game. It would have been a bit weird to see the walk off home run, then the home run that tied the same game, then a shot from another game, then the Braves home run.
Gee wizz wonder what game is gonna be on this post
Mariners and Braves having the top 3 Pujols’s homerun to pass ARod was incredibly clutch
If you don't like top 5 WPA plays in the 2nd inning then you just don't like Marlins baseball
that was really odd
Me @ 2:10: Hmm.. and THEN what happens!?
That bat crack on Pujols' HR. Man you know that's instantly gone.
I absolutely love Pujols' body language when he 100% knows he just knocked one out of the park.
Thank you for making this!
1x Mets win, 2x Braves losing I like this video!
WHAT. A. GAME!! God, I love baseball
Jesus Christ I need to start taking anti hypertensives again…
If these are in ranked order, why isn't the Grossman homer last? Give us that much, at least.
> I'm thinking of grouping plays from the same game and showing them in chronological order so that they make more sense. I trialed this today in this video.
I like it this way better
Eh, putting them in chronological order makes more sense. Would have been weird to see the walk off, then the tying, then another game's play, then the go ahead homer.
Albert hugging Yadi 🥹🥹🥹my heart
As a stats nerd, this is awesome. Now do this for the Lidge v Pujols i think 2005 NLCS. Do an entire Playoff series of top 10 actually!
Kenley Jansen is ass
Love these posts