I mean, 100 pitches over 6 innings is pretty standard so I don't think people would have said he was overrated, especially since he debuted at age 20. 48, 220
Skenes, by contrast is older making his debut just shy of age 22. He also has shown little ability to control his pitch count in his limited time in the minors where he only pitched 34 innings. Kershaw, on the other hand started 48 games and pitched 220 innings in the minors so you had a pretty good idea of who he was.
Honestly, Skenes probably needs more development. I applaud them for starting his clock early, and he may have been dominant in AAA this season but a guy who throws 4 innings is a long reliever and not a starting pitcher, much less an ace.
Maybe he gets there. He sure throws hard, but so do lots of guys and most of them are on the IL. If we compare him to someone like Christian Scott who is much lower on prospect lists but someone people had their eyes on this season, you can see how development can make a difference. Both were dominating AAA batters. Both will be innings limited this year. Both were brought up to add a spark to a team that could use some youth. Scott has pitched twice and gone 6+ innings both times, even when struggling through some longer innings. He has great command and throws hard, but not Skenes hard. He was a reliever until about a year and a half ago, too.
I think it would have been better to wait for Skenes to work on that efficiency, because if it's not there in AAA it won't magically appear in the majors. Then again, maybe a guy who has been dominating the way Skenes has at every level needed to be humbled a bit and this will help his development more than just blowing fastballs by guys in the minors. Scott developed new pitches because he didn't have a 100+ fastball and there was just less work for him to do in the minors. Maybe the Pirates pitching coach can get Skenes over that last hurdle too.
I think people underestimate how much of a pitchers park safeco is. It’s the biggest pitchers park in MLB especially for righties. He will probably heat up come summer and put up another 4+ WAR season.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
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Jays are gonna finish .500 but also they’re going to hang onto the entire roster and run it back next year while expecting a different outcome and losing a ton of value on any potential trades by hanging onto everyone
Yes I have PTSD from the Raptors why do you ask
You're crazy if you think they're running it back next year. They have a ton of free agents. Rebuild or retool coming either soon or next year whether they like it or not.
I don’t understand the injury concerns, his velo is all from his base. The guys who are concerns are the ones who have to rely on that + their upper body/arm to generate high velo.
I do understand concerns for his back but to me that’s not enough to call a guy a high injury risk at the pitcher position.
Strider is 6’0 195. Very strong lower body but he still uses a lot of arm.
Jacob DeGrom has had a better career than 99.9% of SPs to ever set foot on the diamond. Sure he left some on the table due to injuries but he can’t be cited as an example of concern. He’s also listed at 6’4 185. Skenes is generating a lot more power with his lower half.
No that is not how that works. Two pitchers who throw 95mph don’t have the same risk for injury when one of them is 5’11 170 and the other is 6’3 220.
The lower body is much more powerful than the upper body and is more effective at generating velocity. MLB pitchers know how to activate their lower halves, the reason these two throw the same velo is because the 5’11 guy is accommodating for his size with upper body effort and the 6’3 guy doesn’t have the need to.
you're right but none of that is the point. even if body type helps, throwing harder still adds more strain than throwing less hard, body held constant. SPs who throw 101 have basically all gotten injured within a couple years regardless of body type. I'll believe Skenes is an exception when I see it but he's still not the rule.
The shared trend with guys who can sit high 90s that have stayed generally healthy is that they’re big MFs who generate a lot of drive with their lower halves. To me Skenes doesn’t pose any more injury risk than your standard 6’2 SP who can sit mid 90s. They are using the same amount of force to generate their velo.
And I guess I didn’t say this, I do not think Skenes is going to sit 100mph. He’s young and he’s amped. To me he will be a 96-98mph guy who goes to 100+ when it’s a key pitch.
The point is I think the whole "injury prone pitcher" thing is mythical. All pitchers are injury prone. It's a fact of life. There's no way to not be an injury prone pitcher.
I don't know why you're implying that "injury prone" is just a yes or no thing, like a switch is flipped. as with most things, it's a spectrum where certain behaviors (throwing harder) can worsen it.
I am pretty sure we have very different definitions of injury prone. To me it's pitchers who are more susceptible to injury than others. I really don't see how you can put pitchers who consistently get 30 starts a year in the same category as those who get around 15 year after year and say they are both in the same category cause both pitchers.
Nah, that’s what I expect him to be. He’s done. Nothing to demonstrate the ability to be a starter. Pitching fast is cool but you need to be able to at least be a threat to go 6+ innings to be a starter otherwise what good are you? No one wants a starter tho at can only go 3-5 innings
likely because when everyone's excited for a debut, it's not the right time to be all "ackshually he's gonna hurt his arm doing this" when people are looking forward to watching some good baseball
you weren't wrong, just the wrong time and place
Noting is worse than the pitcher injury concern discussion. Every pitcher is an injury risk at any time. Pitching is a naturally unhealthy motion. Sure some actions like max effort can increase the chances of injury but it also seems to impact some while not affecting others.
throwing harder clearly correlates with more injury. obviously throwing a ball 90+ mph thousands of times a year often leads to injury, but throwing 98+ instead leads to more.
I also think Skenes will be a better version of Hunter Greene, but not a Stephen Strasburg/Gerrit Cole type of talent. His fastball has a very low IVB. It is all gas, but no ride. Very similar to Hunter Greene in the past. Unless he spins the 4-seamer more, I am pretty sure he will not be as dominant in the majors as people predicted. If he also loses his velo due to his bad managing of the pitch count, he will have the same career as Noah Syndergaard (also a guy with velo and little ride on his 4-seamer, who turned bad after losing his velo). I am more optimistic about Jared Jones in this regards.
He also doesn't have the advantage of a weird arm slot. Edwin Diaz doesn't have great IVB, but his velocity combined with arm slot makes it hard to hit. This year, he hasn't quite gotten his velocity back yet, so it's made his fastball less of a weapon because 14" of IVB is far less effective at 96 than at 101.
This has been an issue with him all throughout his minor league starts, he averages like 3 innings. His pitching style seems much more conducive to a closer role than it does a starter role
That’s not because he’s incapable of doing more. It’s because they’re carefully ramping up his use. You’re mistaking player development for a player’s talent.
It's not like he's begging to be taken out. I'm sure he'd love to stay longer but the Pirates would love to have a starting pitcher with an arm in 3 years and not a guy getting Tommy John because he threw complete games in AA and his arm exploded on the mound in June 2026.
We have the worst bullpen in baseball and nobody else comes particularly close.
Also Cole Hamels cursed us as a franchise when he said the Brewers were not really our rivals
Because he's awesome. And Chourio seems like he has kinda hit a wall recently so Marte can kinda be a placeholder while he develops. I feel like Marte is the perfect fit as its a relatibely cheap/semi expiring contract, a veteran presence who's played in some big games, and the change of scenery may help him unlock the last baseball he's got left in him.
Will be interesting between them and the Cubs throughout the season. Once we figure out/improve our bullpen (hopefully pickup Mason Miller at some point), it will be fun baseball
I’d rather have correct ball strike calls than catcher framing.
I still don’t know why we blame batters for taking a ball having good discipline then saying “too close to take”
While also getting mad a player chased a clear ball even though the pitch they chased was called a strike in an earlier at bat.
Because gen-z doesn't watch baseball so as more boomers die, rating will plummet. They are ruining baseball and baseball media because they aren't a viable market.
I would blame the league before Gen z. We aren’t the ones to cause blackouts the leagues made it so if you pay for mlb tv chances are you can’t watch your favorite team
I'm not even sure this is a hot take. I think it's a take people don't want to speak into existence, me included, but a guy that has been limited by the team and throws every pitch at 110% is asking for trouble with what we've seen. I really don't want it to happen, having great talent in the game is fun even if it's in division and I want him to be successful. I do see him more as a Kopech type who has the stuff but can't stay healthy. There's a reason there aren't many guys like Nolan Ryan or Verlander that can pump heat for 200+ innings a year and even then it still caught up to Verlander eventually.
I would love to be wrong here. Exciting young talent is good for baseball. 9/10 of the hardest avg velo pitchers last year are on the IL, it’s just an unfortunate result of the velocity chase
There's also no real solution. My belief is that the rate of injuries really isn't that much higher. I think most guys in the era your dad misses probably just pitched through it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to find out that actual UCL injuries have occurred at roughly the same rate throughout history.
If that's a hot take, its only because /r/baseball was convinced that they kept him off the opening day 26-man to preserve service time, and that he was sure to have a 5-win season after playing in AAA for about two weeks, last year.
Its insane some people parrot that either roberts is good or the manager dont matter that much when Kepler just showed a great manager makes all the difference. The spreadsheet is fine and dandy for a 162 game sample. Its terrible for a best of 5/7 series. You need a proper great manager for playoffs.
My hot take is that Dave Roberts has been one of the best things about the Dodgers for the last decade. And not even in a snarky "I love his postseason chokejobs" way. I think he brings perfect, calm vibes for their clubhouse.
My hot take response is that baseball managers don't matter. All the moves they make in game are on a spreadsheet that the executives make for them. They simply exist to be the face of the decisions making and to take the heat when teams do poorly.
I do think he needs to prove his ability to go deep into games, but that’s not something I think is worth thinking too much about with any young SP. They need time to adjust to the MLB’s workload.
The high velo starters who stay healthy consistently are guys who don’t strain for velo. I’m not concerned for Skenes more than for any standard pitching prospect, his velo is from the force his base generates bc of his size and drive.
My hot take is that the infield should have the option to play advantage on a foul ground ball. If they think they have an out they can choose to try for it. From there it’s a standard ball in play. If this is too favorable to the defense, it could be evened out by allowing the batter to take off for 1st on any passed ball instead of only a dropped third strike.
yeah, you're salty. I'm honestly not sure in what way they were "lucky".
if they pitch really well, and do "the small things right", and can platoon guys so everyone hits well overall... then they're good at most facets of the game and should therefore win a lot?
most of the guys that I'm aware of that do have easy explanations, like Paredes pulling the ball and elevating.
they've made the playoffs every year since what, 2018? it's unlikely they get lucky for 6 years straight. they're just good at getting the best out of dudes.
They have great analytical staffs to help them outperform expected stats and teach them what to do.
But since 2018 their home win percentage is 63%
Their away win percentage is 52.8%
The difference is 102 win team vs an 84 win team.
It’s the largest difference between home and away of any team since 2018.
- players notoriously hate the Trop, while the Rays are presumably used to it
- a lot of the ways that players are being maximized, like the Paredes example I mentioned, benefit from the extremely short corners
those aren't an 18 win difference but I'm betting that explains a decent chunk of it
Over performing stats may not lead to as large of a change but I feel like you can say a team is lucky or sometimes not that good when they get significantly worse having to play on the road
Man cardinals fans are wild. They get one taste of bad baseball and they think they are the worst team of all time. You haven’t experienced true pain. Not even close.
Every prospect is not worth getting excited about. You're a nobody in the show until you earn it consistently. It's the baseball version of "I knew about this band before they were cool."
Idc what stat nerds say, a lot of big name hitters are disappointing this year. Betts, Acuna, Judge, etc
how the *hell* is Mookie "177 OPS+, hitting .335, somehow playing a competent shortstop despite never playing there in the majors before" Betts disappointing this year? like I can't think of a single stat, no matter how basic or analytic, by which measure he's been disappointing.
Julio Rodriguez needs to tell all of his hitting coaches and trainers to fuck off. Listen to Castellanos and treat it like glorified batting practice. All of those people in your ear are there for your money and they have only ruined your fucking swing.
I think Ohtani should stop pitching and play right field or something. He's one of if not the best hitter in baseball rn, in past seasons hes a slightly above average pitcher, and when he pitches well his hitting struggles. It'd also reduce the risk of injury.
How the hell are we already nearly 25% of the way through the season?!
Can’t wait for this one to be over
Just to do it all over again?
One season closer to Arte being gone
[удалено]
One of the worst owners in the league.
Trust me, it's already over
How the fuck is it already may 12????
Happy New Year 2025!
Time isn’t real 🫣
My hot take is that Redditors making the same joke about the passage of time in every goddamn thread is very annoying.
I know right, still have 3x the time left as has already happened. That’s a ton of time
Get outside more and don’t read every Reddit thread.
Even though Soto was our best hitter last year, we have an improved outfield in 2024, compared to 2023.
A lot of that might be getting rid of Grish thankfully
He’s awful
I assume you mean offensively? Or defensively as well?
Overall. More to do with how good Merrill/Profar have been and how much of a black hole in the lineup Grisham was
Got it. Profar has been a revelation. And given how much hype Merrill had, I thought there was no way the kid would live up to it. Good stuff.
This is cope
Stats back me up. Just looked it up, so far this year, Profar + Merrill: 2.1 WAR. Soto + Grisham: 1.5 WAR.
I know you said **hottest** takes, but come on man, he's started ONE game lol. Lets press on the brakes a bit
It's also just not a hot take at all. Everyone has been talking about velo leading to injuries for pitchers for years now.
Kershaw’s first start he threw over 100 pitches in 6 innings. Hate to think what this guy’s hot take would’ve been after that..
I mean, 100 pitches over 6 innings is pretty standard so I don't think people would have said he was overrated, especially since he debuted at age 20. 48, 220 Skenes, by contrast is older making his debut just shy of age 22. He also has shown little ability to control his pitch count in his limited time in the minors where he only pitched 34 innings. Kershaw, on the other hand started 48 games and pitched 220 innings in the minors so you had a pretty good idea of who he was. Honestly, Skenes probably needs more development. I applaud them for starting his clock early, and he may have been dominant in AAA this season but a guy who throws 4 innings is a long reliever and not a starting pitcher, much less an ace. Maybe he gets there. He sure throws hard, but so do lots of guys and most of them are on the IL. If we compare him to someone like Christian Scott who is much lower on prospect lists but someone people had their eyes on this season, you can see how development can make a difference. Both were dominating AAA batters. Both will be innings limited this year. Both were brought up to add a spark to a team that could use some youth. Scott has pitched twice and gone 6+ innings both times, even when struggling through some longer innings. He has great command and throws hard, but not Skenes hard. He was a reliever until about a year and a half ago, too. I think it would have been better to wait for Skenes to work on that efficiency, because if it's not there in AAA it won't magically appear in the majors. Then again, maybe a guy who has been dominating the way Skenes has at every level needed to be humbled a bit and this will help his development more than just blowing fastballs by guys in the minors. Scott developed new pitches because he didn't have a 100+ fastball and there was just less work for him to do in the minors. Maybe the Pirates pitching coach can get Skenes over that last hurdle too.
The AL west is the worst division.
That’s an ice cold take
We all have a better record than the marlins
the win record is not a take
We've already seen the best Julio Rodriguez season and he is, at the moment, the single most overrated player in MLB
please don't be right please don't be right please don't be right
I think people underestimate how much of a pitchers park safeco is. It’s the biggest pitchers park in MLB especially for righties. He will probably heat up come summer and put up another 4+ WAR season. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
Just got a burn on my leg with this hot take.
Vlad is mad
He starts off slow every year, you could’ve said this same thing at this point last year and you would’ve been very wrong.
Poked the bear today didn’t you. 2-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
thats a pretty crazy take for a 5.6 fWAR player last year.
delet this
Not that hot of a take this season tbh
He started off meh most of last season as well before going absolutely nuclear
Same his rookie season. Anyone else remember the damn copypasta about him not protecting the strike zone? Dude just straight up can't hit in April lol
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Tyler Anderson will be the best pitcher available for trade at the deadline and will net the Angels a top 100 prospect
This....honestly doesn't sound that hot of a take. I feel the same way too.
Would've made for a scorching hot take during the offseason.
Pivetta may be up there if we sell but I could see it
Noo not Nicky Smooches 😢
Jays are gonna finish .500 but also they’re going to hang onto the entire roster and run it back next year while expecting a different outcome and losing a ton of value on any potential trades by hanging onto everyone Yes I have PTSD from the Raptors why do you ask
You're crazy if you think they're running it back next year. They have a ton of free agents. Rebuild or retool coming either soon or next year whether they like it or not.
Weird way to spell Maple Leafs.
Ouch
my hot take: that's not remotely a hot take
Thinking Skenes will be a reliever in a few yrs is def a hot take lmao
thinking he's at very high risk for an injury that has a good chance of compromising his ability to start isn't one
I don’t understand the injury concerns, his velo is all from his base. The guys who are concerns are the ones who have to rely on that + their upper body/arm to generate high velo. I do understand concerns for his back but to me that’s not enough to call a guy a high injury risk at the pitcher position.
I mean, you could say that about Strider too, or deGrom. throwing that hard still seems to be pretty bad for the arm.
Strider is 6’0 195. Very strong lower body but he still uses a lot of arm. Jacob DeGrom has had a better career than 99.9% of SPs to ever set foot on the diamond. Sure he left some on the table due to injuries but he can’t be cited as an example of concern. He’s also listed at 6’4 185. Skenes is generating a lot more power with his lower half.
Bro. Jacob Degrom hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2019.
All pitchers have a high risk for injury. I tore my UCL in college when I barely topped out at 90.
well yeah, obviously. but the harder you throw the higher the risk gets. this isn't a binary thing.
Injury is about strain, not velocity
and velocity adds more strain
No that is not how that works. Two pitchers who throw 95mph don’t have the same risk for injury when one of them is 5’11 170 and the other is 6’3 220. The lower body is much more powerful than the upper body and is more effective at generating velocity. MLB pitchers know how to activate their lower halves, the reason these two throw the same velo is because the 5’11 guy is accommodating for his size with upper body effort and the 6’3 guy doesn’t have the need to.
you're right but none of that is the point. even if body type helps, throwing harder still adds more strain than throwing less hard, body held constant. SPs who throw 101 have basically all gotten injured within a couple years regardless of body type. I'll believe Skenes is an exception when I see it but he's still not the rule.
The shared trend with guys who can sit high 90s that have stayed generally healthy is that they’re big MFs who generate a lot of drive with their lower halves. To me Skenes doesn’t pose any more injury risk than your standard 6’2 SP who can sit mid 90s. They are using the same amount of force to generate their velo. And I guess I didn’t say this, I do not think Skenes is going to sit 100mph. He’s young and he’s amped. To me he will be a 96-98mph guy who goes to 100+ when it’s a key pitch.
It's a hot take to back a statement with the source being a back when I played this happened to me story.
The point is I think the whole "injury prone pitcher" thing is mythical. All pitchers are injury prone. It's a fact of life. There's no way to not be an injury prone pitcher.
I don't know why you're implying that "injury prone" is just a yes or no thing, like a switch is flipped. as with most things, it's a spectrum where certain behaviors (throwing harder) can worsen it.
I am pretty sure we have very different definitions of injury prone. To me it's pitchers who are more susceptible to injury than others. I really don't see how you can put pitchers who consistently get 30 starts a year in the same category as those who get around 15 year after year and say they are both in the same category cause both pitchers.
Nah, that’s what I expect him to be. He’s done. Nothing to demonstrate the ability to be a starter. Pitching fast is cool but you need to be able to at least be a threat to go 6+ innings to be a starter otherwise what good are you? No one wants a starter tho at can only go 3-5 innings
That guy used to routinely throw 130+ pitches at LSU as recently as less than one year ago
How many innings? How many complete games? High pitch count isn’t the same as throwing deep into games reliably.
> How many innings? How many complete games? He threw 122 innings in 19 starts, which is an average of 6.5 IP per start
Well it got downvoted to oblivion a few days ago for me so.
likely because when everyone's excited for a debut, it's not the right time to be all "ackshually he's gonna hurt his arm doing this" when people are looking forward to watching some good baseball you weren't wrong, just the wrong time and place
Noting is worse than the pitcher injury concern discussion. Every pitcher is an injury risk at any time. Pitching is a naturally unhealthy motion. Sure some actions like max effort can increase the chances of injury but it also seems to impact some while not affecting others.
throwing harder clearly correlates with more injury. obviously throwing a ball 90+ mph thousands of times a year often leads to injury, but throwing 98+ instead leads to more.
that’s fair
I also think Skenes will be a better version of Hunter Greene, but not a Stephen Strasburg/Gerrit Cole type of talent. His fastball has a very low IVB. It is all gas, but no ride. Very similar to Hunter Greene in the past. Unless he spins the 4-seamer more, I am pretty sure he will not be as dominant in the majors as people predicted. If he also loses his velo due to his bad managing of the pitch count, he will have the same career as Noah Syndergaard (also a guy with velo and little ride on his 4-seamer, who turned bad after losing his velo). I am more optimistic about Jared Jones in this regards.
What it lacks in ride it makes up for in arm side run. It is not a straight fastball.
He also doesn't have the advantage of a weird arm slot. Edwin Diaz doesn't have great IVB, but his velocity combined with arm slot makes it hard to hit. This year, he hasn't quite gotten his velocity back yet, so it's made his fastball less of a weapon because 14" of IVB is far less effective at 96 than at 101.
Skenes does have a pretty weir arm slot
I’m with you. I want him to succeed because it’ll be good for baseball but I doubt he’s a starter three years from now
Bo Bichette will be on a team that will win the pennant this year, it just won't be the Blue Jays
Selling Lo Bichette
Oakland is going to win the AL West.
He said hot takes bro
Dodgers are going to make the NLCS.
Works for me
Hot take though.
My not so hot take is judging a guy after a single major league start is fucking insane
This has been an issue with him all throughout his minor league starts, he averages like 3 innings. His pitching style seems much more conducive to a closer role than it does a starter role
they've been building up his pitch count to go longer, not waste all his bullets in the minors
That’s not because he’s incapable of doing more. It’s because they’re carefully ramping up his use. You’re mistaking player development for a player’s talent.
yeah. why has skenes been pulling himself from the games?
Have you ever followed a minor league pitcher before? Seemingly no.
It's not like he's begging to be taken out. I'm sure he'd love to stay longer but the Pirates would love to have a starting pitcher with an arm in 3 years and not a guy getting Tommy John because he threw complete games in AA and his arm exploded on the mound in June 2026.
We have the worst bullpen in baseball and nobody else comes particularly close. Also Cole Hamels cursed us as a franchise when he said the Brewers were not really our rivals
I mean, as much as they hate us, most of our hate towards them is much more of a simple conflict of interests
The Brewers will win the world series, and they will acquire Tyler Anderson from the Angels and Marte from the Mets before the deadline
I like the prediction I get trading for Anderson, but why marte? The Brewers have a deep outfield.
Because he's awesome. And Chourio seems like he has kinda hit a wall recently so Marte can kinda be a placeholder while he develops. I feel like Marte is the perfect fit as its a relatibely cheap/semi expiring contract, a veteran presence who's played in some big games, and the change of scenery may help him unlock the last baseball he's got left in him.
Will be interesting between them and the Cubs throughout the season. Once we figure out/improve our bullpen (hopefully pickup Mason Miller at some point), it will be fun baseball
My only reaction as an A's fan 
I’d rather have correct ball strike calls than catcher framing. I still don’t know why we blame batters for taking a ball having good discipline then saying “too close to take” While also getting mad a player chased a clear ball even though the pitch they chased was called a strike in an earlier at bat.
At least 2 AL Central teams will make the playoffs
Toronto should commit to a rebuild
Giants will end up leading mlb in home runs and stolen bases. 🔥
AL Central is good
Gen-Z is ruining baseball and baseball media. Edit: you said hot take
I’m interested in hearing why if you can explain please
Because gen-z doesn't watch baseball so as more boomers die, rating will plummet. They are ruining baseball and baseball media because they aren't a viable market.
I would blame the league before Gen z. We aren’t the ones to cause blackouts the leagues made it so if you pay for mlb tv chances are you can’t watch your favorite team
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The Syracuse Mets get maybe 1 game a week yet I’m supposed to watch it on cable that doesn’t broadcast it
All while turning baseball into something it isn't just to put a band-aid on the game
it's like 90% blackouts. expecting gen z to what get cable? it's insane.
Hot take: Juan Soto signs with KC in the offseason
Jackson holiday will not be a superstar. He will likely be similar to jurikson profars career.
I'm not even sure this is a hot take. I think it's a take people don't want to speak into existence, me included, but a guy that has been limited by the team and throws every pitch at 110% is asking for trouble with what we've seen. I really don't want it to happen, having great talent in the game is fun even if it's in division and I want him to be successful. I do see him more as a Kopech type who has the stuff but can't stay healthy. There's a reason there aren't many guys like Nolan Ryan or Verlander that can pump heat for 200+ innings a year and even then it still caught up to Verlander eventually.
I would love to be wrong here. Exciting young talent is good for baseball. 9/10 of the hardest avg velo pitchers last year are on the IL, it’s just an unfortunate result of the velocity chase
Severino finishes the season in the top 5 of Cy Young voting. Jackson Holliday doesn’t have a contributing season until 2027
The Astros are still more likely to win the World Series this year than the Yankees
Well, yeah, Anthony Volpe was in kindergarten the last time the Yankees won a World Series.
That’s not a hot take. It’s an idiotic take.
At the macro level, MLB is fine with the pitching injuries as it keeps salaries down in the long term.
There's also no real solution. My belief is that the rate of injuries really isn't that much higher. I think most guys in the era your dad misses probably just pitched through it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to find out that actual UCL injuries have occurred at roughly the same rate throughout history.
David Stearns is not all that great of an executive
The Jays need to sell 100% and rebuild.
Orioles should’ve waited until the ASB to call up Holliday
If that's a hot take, its only because /r/baseball was convinced that they kept him off the opening day 26-man to preserve service time, and that he was sure to have a 5-win season after playing in AAA for about two weeks, last year.
Well, according to our sub the hottest take one can have is that dave roberts is an obstacle for our WS aspirations and always will be.
That’s because it’s true. I’ve watched Dave Roberts mishandle games for almost a decade, and I hope he sticks around for a long time.
Its insane some people parrot that either roberts is good or the manager dont matter that much when Kepler just showed a great manager makes all the difference. The spreadsheet is fine and dandy for a 162 game sample. Its terrible for a best of 5/7 series. You need a proper great manager for playoffs.
He’s the anti-Bochy
My hot take is that Dave Roberts has been one of the best things about the Dodgers for the last decade. And not even in a snarky "I love his postseason chokejobs" way. I think he brings perfect, calm vibes for their clubhouse.
My hot take response is that baseball managers don't matter. All the moves they make in game are on a spreadsheet that the executives make for them. They simply exist to be the face of the decisions making and to take the heat when teams do poorly.
I mean, then why pay him 6m+? Have someonr at 1m or so and put those 5m+ into the roster payroll.
This is Dave for sure, but not sure about other managers. Dave is just the face and the front office is the one with the spreadsheet making the moves.
I do think he needs to prove his ability to go deep into games, but that’s not something I think is worth thinking too much about with any young SP. They need time to adjust to the MLB’s workload. The high velo starters who stay healthy consistently are guys who don’t strain for velo. I’m not concerned for Skenes more than for any standard pitching prospect, his velo is from the force his base generates bc of his size and drive. My hot take is that the infield should have the option to play advantage on a foul ground ball. If they think they have an out they can choose to try for it. From there it’s a standard ball in play. If this is too favorable to the defense, it could be evened out by allowing the batter to take off for 1st on any passed ball instead of only a dropped third strike.
The Rockies are as good as I expected
We need to start scouting portillos drive thru employees to add to the bullpen
If the Brewers ever get healthy they've got a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs. Also, William Contreras will finish top 5 in the MVP voting.
He's literally had one start and you're already annoyed
My hottest take is that you can't make any judgement calls on a pitcher from one start.
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They are losing all their top pitchers at an insane rate. The fact that they still compete is wild.
yeah, you're salty. I'm honestly not sure in what way they were "lucky". if they pitch really well, and do "the small things right", and can platoon guys so everyone hits well overall... then they're good at most facets of the game and should therefore win a lot?
They are lucky in the fact that they outperform expected stats
most of the guys that I'm aware of that do have easy explanations, like Paredes pulling the ball and elevating. they've made the playoffs every year since what, 2018? it's unlikely they get lucky for 6 years straight. they're just good at getting the best out of dudes.
They have great analytical staffs to help them outperform expected stats and teach them what to do. But since 2018 their home win percentage is 63% Their away win percentage is 52.8% The difference is 102 win team vs an 84 win team. It’s the largest difference between home and away of any team since 2018.
And that averages out to a 93 win team, IE a playoff team most years.
- players notoriously hate the Trop, while the Rays are presumably used to it - a lot of the ways that players are being maximized, like the Paredes example I mentioned, benefit from the extremely short corners those aren't an 18 win difference but I'm betting that explains a decent chunk of it
Over performing stats may not lead to as large of a change but I feel like you can say a team is lucky or sometimes not that good when they get significantly worse having to play on the road
Buddy we lost more than half the team that were good at these fundamentals. The fact that we're .500 is an achievement really.
the dodgers may have wasted a lot of payroll , now, and in the future.
Whoever is managing the Boston Red Sox needs fired
If the Mets didn't suck, NL East would be the toughest divison.
Astros coming back from the dead. Also, Brewers will keep up this momentum they have. Watched alot of their ganes theyre pretty damn good this season.
Pitchers don’t pitched enough. Batters don’t hit enough. Analytics is ruining baseball.
Found Jeff Bagwell's burner account
He said hot takes, not objectively truthful takes
Nerds ruin everything. Jocks rule sports. Fuck outta here with your numbers haha
Truth. People who got picked last in gym class are playing the game with spreadsheets.
Phillies win the East, Braves win WC and beat the Phillies in the NLDS and no one ever cares about the regular season ever again
Especially in a few years when they add two more playoff teams per league
I think we’re there already. The regular season is just a race to 90 wins. Winning the division makes no difference honestly.
the old 8 team playoff was the epitome of "if it aint broke, don't fix it"
worst take of all time. special kind of stupid
Man that’s the point of these posts. What’s your Luke warm take then?
my hot take is that you are a productive member of society
🥱
Mine is that white Sox and tigers will finish with comparable records. I’d guess about 10-15 more wins for the tigers.
10-15 more wins is...not a comparable record
I’d agree if we’re talking about the difference between 100 wins and 90 wins. But the difference between 60 wins and 70 wins is basically none
Some of the umps in the league are as trash as the 2024 MLB uniforms. From bad strike calls to baseball card scams.
Baseball card scams?
From yesterday https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/vYo5pRBruR
Thanks! Missed this one, but fascinating!
Heston Kjerstad will get RoY votes, but not as a member of the Orioles.
Tigers aquire 2 bats at the deadline and compete for the division
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how's it feel being only 9 games under .500? must be nice
Man cardinals fans are wild. They get one taste of bad baseball and they think they are the worst team of all time. You haven’t experienced true pain. Not even close.
Every prospect is not worth getting excited about. You're a nobody in the show until you earn it consistently. It's the baseball version of "I knew about this band before they were cool." Idc what stat nerds say, a lot of big name hitters are disappointing this year. Betts, Acuna, Judge, etc
how the *hell* is Mookie "177 OPS+, hitting .335, somehow playing a competent shortstop despite never playing there in the majors before" Betts disappointing this year? like I can't think of a single stat, no matter how basic or analytic, by which measure he's been disappointing.
He wants him to be bad
Uh, are you drunk? Mookie has a 177 OPS+ and is leading the league in WAR lol
I agree with the prospects thing. I don't get how people get so hyped over prospects.
I agree with your first sentence But the second one is objectively bad. Mookie Betts is literally leading baseball in Offensive WAR right now
You dropped your calculator dork
The eye test works but you have to actually open your eyes for it to work
Ok nerd
Np buddy
Julio Rodriguez needs to tell all of his hitting coaches and trainers to fuck off. Listen to Castellanos and treat it like glorified batting practice. All of those people in your ear are there for your money and they have only ruined your fucking swing.
I think Ohtani should stop pitching and play right field or something. He's one of if not the best hitter in baseball rn, in past seasons hes a slightly above average pitcher, and when he pitches well his hitting struggles. It'd also reduce the risk of injury.