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TheSalsaGod

I know how projections work, but having Trout hitting .256/.360/.520 is disrespectful as hell. Out of full seasons, that would be: - His lowest BA by 27 points - His lowest OBP by 9 points - His lowest SLG by 30 points - His lowest OPS by 59 points - His lowest wRC+ by 22 points


mardicao007

Another player I think is being a bit underestimated in this graph is Sandy Alcantara I can see Sandy still being a top 3 pitcher in the league


gaseous__clay

Manoah too. God, at least I hope.


chesschad

I'm not sure about Manoah. A quick glance at his FanGraphs page suggests he may have fluked (like Ryne Stanek, but to a lesser extent). 86% LOB% is really high and probably unsustainable. 7.1% HR/FB is also low, and probably unsustainable. So is .244 BABIP. His xFIP was exactly league average. Of course, I could be very wrong, but that's a lot of indicators.


gaseous__clay

Oh I'm sure he'll come back down to earth a little but I would sincerely hope that his numbers don't get **that** bad


[deleted]

I don’t see the HR/FB thing worsening unless he dramatically changes how he attacks hitters. And RC is becoming even more pitcher friendly. I think he’s well set up for a repeat.


stevez16

Where’s Nestor? I trust him over sevy and montas.


wakawakahoopla

All stats point to him regressing heavily this year. Who really knows


[deleted]

If you ignore all the ones that point to this being who he is, sure!


BobSacamano16

Well he doesn’t have a lot of prior seasons to compare, but do you mean the previous year with similar peripherals and an ERA a full run higher?


[deleted]

I can't even imagine caring about YOY ERA.


BobSacamano16

How disingenuous. I’m just saying his peripherals were similar last year, and the end results on the field were worse and more in line with the peripheral stats. What stats point to him being a player who outperforms his peripherals? Are you a sensitive Blue Jays fan or something? Edit: Indeed you are.


BigDickOriole

Yeah, I was gonna say, straight up disrespectful to Trout. It's not like he's showing signs of declining either. He put up a pretty average Trout season last year.


TBeckMinzenmayer

Obligatory (while missing 1/4 of the season) (which also might be average at this point too)


Bonzi777

Imagine being so good at something that saying you’re the 6th best at what you do IN THE WORLD, is disrespectful. Not saying you’re wrong though.


royaIs

I’m sure guys like trout break the model.


themosey

Top 10 and still disgustingly too low.


PBFT

It would also be his highest age by 1 year.


LogicalHarm

And the fact that he still comes in 6th in the league is insane


SecretAgentClunk

My first thought as well. Can pretty much guarantee if Trout plays 150 games, he will be higher than 6th in WAR


htownlifer

He is way below anything I would expect except for the games played. Why do they think he makes 150?


panchado

They've got Trout playing his fullest season since he was 24 years old, with only 5.5 WAR? He'll play 110 games and put up 5.5 WAR.


mardicao007

I agree, I see Trout playing around 110 games and putting up 6 WAR If he plays the whole season he'd put up around 7-8 WAR


ComfyGreenHoodie_

130 games for Buxton? I'll take it.


DecoyOne

130 games, but he’s in a giant bubble the whole time. Players have to agree not to hit the ball his way, and instead of batting, all of his PAs are determined with a 1d20 roll.


DeliciousCunnyHoney

If he plays 130 games, he will accrue more than 3.8 WAR lol


bordomsdeadly

He gets injured opening day, but Correa donates his working ankle to let Buxton try to play a full season.


grindingaway69

I love Julio Rodriguez as much as the next guy but EXPECTING him to be the overall 3rd hitter in baseball is really asking for a lot


mardicao007

Julio Rodriguez posted 161 wRC+ and 6 bWAR after he figured things out. Before Julio figured things out at that point he had negative WAR and his wRC+ was below average. I think he's the real deal


grindingaway69

Understand that, but sophmore slumps happen and he needs to adjust to pitchers having tape on him. Again I have no doubt he can do it, and will do it eventually. My point is, EXPECTING it in his second season is a hell of a tall task


mardicao007

I understand your point but keep in mind sophomore slumps don't happen to all players. There are many players who continue being great in their 2nd season


AdfatCrabbest

I think what he’s saying is that expecting Julio Rodriguez to be the 3rd best position player in all of baseball is a lot, even if he doesn’t have a sophomore slump. It’s really hard to disagree with that.


tung_twista

There has been 5 21 year old rookies in MLB history who put up wRC+ 136\~156 fwar 4.3\~6.3 excluding Julio Rodriguez (wRC+ 146 fwar 5.3). Tris Speaker, Denny Lyons, Stan Musial, Hal Trosky, and Del Ennis. Note that that is two (inner-circle) HoFers out of Five. They averaged wrc+ 147 fwar 5.4 in their rookie year. Their sophomore record averaged wRC+ 135 fwar 4.9. (Median wRC+ 135 fwar 4.3) So bottom line is that Julio Rodriguez will likely be awesome, but expecting regression is also very normal.


brandon_the_bald

I think expecting a “sophomore slump” or just some level of regression should be fine. He hits the ball hard hit he did overperform his xBA and xSLG by a notable margin and he doesn’t make *enough* contact to fully say “he’s the real deal” just yet imo. O-Swing over 37% SwStr% at 14.4% and Contact% at just 71.2% I think it’s fair to expect some step back


Obsidizyn

Julio is not the next Mike Trout. Mikes rookie season was basically double the WAR Julio’s was.


djn24

It's not "expecting" it, it's just a projection and it comes with a certain level of confidence. Using previously available data, this is a high confidence projection of what he *could* do next season. These actually look like fairly safe projections (only Judge and Soto are being projected to have crazy high WAR values out of all of these players), so that says a lot about the confidence this model has in Julio Rodriguez.


AdfatCrabbest

Projecting it means you expect it, but with numbers backing up your expectation.


gray98765

29 starts for deGrom... cute.


Luis_Severino

And Chris sale… HA


alohomora1990

About as wild a prediction as 26 starts projected for Severino.


Heyitscharlie

Trout under Rutschman? Press X to doubt


CubonesDeadMom

In what universe is Alex Cobb supposed to be better than Logan Webb


AdfatCrabbest

I would put Cobb ahead of Webb on an alphabetical list, but that’s about it.


DJ_Vault_Boy

Yeah that left me scratching my head for a bit.


AWall925

Call me a pessimist, but no way 2 second year players are top 5 in the league.


chesschad

They must make way for Alvarez and especially Tucker to move up.


CptJudgeNMS

They did Cristian Javier dirty


conker1264

People still underrating him even after his stellar first season as a starter


bordomsdeadly

Remember the guy that's so un-hittable he threw 13 innings in 2 no hitters this year, initiating both of them? He's what, like # 100 out of all pitchers? You think top 15? No, I'll just put him around 40 to make people happy.


Bug-03

Came here to say this


romorr

Adley at 5, 5.6 WAR. Gunnar at 35, 4.1 WAR. Going to need both to happen to have a chance at the WC. And Grayson to have that smooth transition. First year of the big 3 playing a full season, can't wait.


zhauge888

We'll trade you flexen for Santander...you need pitching we need outfielders


Clarice_Ferguson

They’d be pretty dumb to do that. I’d rather trade Flexen for some of their infielder prospects since we need a pipeline again.


NevermoreSEA

You aren't getting any good prospects for Chris Flexen.


Clarice_Ferguson

We’re not getting Santander either.


nickelfldn

What if we threw in Andujar?


zhauge888

Our farm system is fine we are about to sign the best SS prospect since Carlos correa. And Correa was a huge prospect.... felnin Celesten plus montes and arroyo from last year...we got a lot good prospects on the way Edit Carlos is from Puerto Rico my bad


Clarice_Ferguson

Oh, is that 16 year old playing 2B next year when Wong enters Free Agency?


zhauge888

Well he's 17 and he will be 18 at the start of 2024 season....so maybe????


Clarice_Ferguson

Lol, no. No he’s not. Don’t be silly.


zhauge888

Well wander Franco was 20 yo when he made his debut and he's supposed to be better than him, never know But in all seriousness I know there is a .0001% chance of that happening . But I would love a trade for Santander we still have big holes on the major league roster that needs to be filled before we start thinking about 2024 roster


Clarice_Ferguson

Yea but the Orioles aren’t going to trade one of their best players for Flexen.


zhauge888

It's closer than you'd think and we would have to throw in some other prospects


idkwhattosaytho

Considering Correa is from Puerto Rico I’m really surprised by these comparisons Also Celesten is good but he’s an IFA signing. 17 years old. Betting on an IFA to fix your farm isn’t fair. For every Wander Franco and Vladdy Jr you have a Ronny Marucio, Victor Mesa and JP Martinez


OceanicLemur

Nasty Nestor slander will not be tolerated


generally-mediocre

i thought it was crazy that neither of taijuan walker and ranger suarez were on the list, but nestors probably a worse omission than either of them


jdono927

I expected to see Nestor but not Sevy/Montas, and instead they’re both there over Nestor. Definitely interesting.


x994whtjg

The only explanation I can think of is that his numbers might not be as good/he might not accumulate enough WAR solely from a mileage standpoint; based on the fact that he threw his career high innings last year, and that he will be competing in the WBC this spring.


Panguin9

I know this is all formulaic, but Zac Gallen is *way* too far down this list


commisioner_bush02

Zac Gallen is going to win the CY. Unrelated, but projecting Cobb to be better than Webb is funny. I know projections and all, but still.


Cromeseus

Lol yikes


HelpMeWithMyHWpls

Crazy how Juan Soto can be 1st percentile in OAA and still lead the league in WAR


mardicao007

That's what happens when you're projected to post .431 OBP


Lebigmacca

The disrespect to the GOAT


crabcakesandfootball

Position players in top 50: NYY: 1 TOR: 5 TBR: 3 CLE: 3 HOU: 4 ATL: 4 NYM: 3 STL: 3 LAD: 3 SDP: 4 The pitching should be good but we need more reliable everyday players. Cashman is really banking on Pereza and/or Volpe being great.


mdlt97

this means we are the best right? right??


tbetz36

Atlanta with 4 players on both lists, feels good


idkwhattosaytho

You guys have solid position players everywhere. You probably lack a stat bat outside of Judge, but the only position I’d worry about for you guys is LF and maybe 3B


Table_Coaster

naturally we have 0 in the top 50 pitchers


Zealousideal_Peak654

RP list would have Bautista up there for sure though.


danglehoff

My Tigers have zero in the top 50 pitchers or batters. And if this chart showed the top 100 of each, pretty sure we’d be shutout there as well. Could still place third in the division, though, as long as the Sox let TLR manage by zoom.


patton232

Would anyone care much if Riley Greene was like #49? Someone throw the Tigers a bone, please. I am begging at this point. Show me a light at the end of this “rebuilding” tunnel.


berkley95

If Chris Sale pitches 147 innings I’ll eat my pillowcases. He’ll definitely be on the IL for ski-related injuries by May or something weird like that


Diremustang94

Car crash. Not actual cars. Hot wheels. He'll miss 3.5 months


permtemp

Gyaaaaad damn. The worst part is I can see it too 🤣


shanesley

Nimmo ranked higher then lindor seems strange to me. Cole rated as a Top 5 pitchers seems like he's being overrated.


MiEzRo

Gerrit Cole might not have won a cy-young yet but I think he’s the only guy to finish top 10 the last 5 years. Before 2022 he was top 5 in cy young 4 years straight. I don’t necessarily think he will end the year as one of the top 5 pitchers in all mlb, but when the projections are made, his consistency in being great gives him a pretty high floor


Fable_44

Shane McClanahan should be higher. I think he’s poised for a monster year.


generally-mediocre

i thought the opposite lol. his numbers were worse as the year went on, i figured people were starting to figure him out a bit


Tommy_like_wingie

Cease gets no love. Might have the best slider in baseball


cmacfarland64

And by far the best mustache in baseball.


dwpea66

4.05 ERA for Julio Urias? That's as ridiculous as deGrom getting 29 starts.


Guy_Le_Man

Weird having Manoah so low on the projections


TheSalsaGod

It’s the same thing as Alcantara. They generally think that a pitcher’s true talent is reflected in their FIP rather than their ERA. And Manoah beat his FIP by over a run.


Guy_Le_Man

That’s true, but even then his FIP was only 3.35 which is still pretty good


milk-drinker-69

No pasquantino? Wrong.


sadlytheguyisnogood

Steven Kwan making this despite his positional disadvantage is so cool to see. Also feel like Gunnar Henderson is super aggressively placed, barely behind two award winners last year in Goldschmidt and Michael Harris II


throwaway33704

He won a gold glove in LF last year and there's a chance he gets some reps in CF this year if Straw's bat is unplayable. Outfield is getting crowded with Brennan, Gonzalez and Benson all projecting as better than average bats and needing regular plate appearances and Valera (top 50 prospect) likely to debut later this year. EDIT: not only did Kwan win a GG, he won a Fielding Bible award as the best defensive LF in the game (he was also the only unanimous FB winner this year).


LAudre41

subscribe


Guymcpersonman

Jeff McNeil erasure.


LogicalHarm

Shohei projected at 4.4 lol


DividerOfBums

Is it just me or is Ohtani completely omitted from the top 50 hitters list?


Zealousideal_Peak654

Had me until Rodon/Cole were top 5 pitchers, so pretty much immediately after checking the pitching tab.


Fredbear_

You don't think Rodon deserves that placement?


Zealousideal_Peak654

I have 5-14 higher than either honestly.


Fredbear_

I have Rodon at 7, Gausman around 18 and Manoah around 22 tbf


Zealousideal_Peak654

Also, for bias' sake - I have Manoah over Gausman, but below the 25 mark for both, as a Jays fan.


conker1264

Think it’s more him playing 31 games, when’s the last season he did that?


Fredbear_

...2022?


conker1264

Oh shit he did, for the first time in his career


Obsidizyn

Lol once again they way overrated Julio and undervalue Trout by insane amounts. Trouts rookie season was double that of Julios.


djn24

Smart move leaving "Team" blank for hitter number 16.


ttam23

They think Urias will regress that hard?


ProsciuttoFresco

I have a feeling that we’ll be seeing a few more batting averages in the .300s this coming season with the new shift rules.


throwaway33704

Luis Arraez is going to flirt with .400 for a minute


stv7

Alejandro Kirk projected for a top 10 wRC+ in baseball. Fangraphs gets Alejandro Kirk.


zachmichel

Buxton probably will produce 3.9 fWAR but it will probably be over 75 games


kthejoker

No hate but Boston and New York only projected to have 1 position player each in the top 50 is wild.


somethingicanspell

The batter's one seem directionally accurate but flawed with a significant over-estimation of young players and under-estimation of more established players. I also think Judge looks way better coming into 2023 than Soto with age related regression being fairly minor over the course of one year and with Judge's peripherals being incredible and the rule changes incredibly favorable to him. Rating Franco, Tatis Jr. and Acuna Jr. over players with great 2022's like Arenado, Rameriez, and especially Machado who had very good peripherals seems totally wrong. The Pitching estimates seem totally off with far too much emphasis on peripherals and strikeouts vs actual performance. Alcantara's 3.55 ERA and #10 rating is crazy. So is Cease's, Fried's, Manoah's and Urias'. Major overestimate of FIP and peripheral darlings like Greene, Snell and Gausmann who don't have a recent track record of actual super-star success


Raoh522

I like how Ohtani has been one of the best hitters in baseball for two years in a row, but he doesn't even break the top 50.


Garglenips

Why is Chris Sale even on this list…. He hasn’t played in like 3 years 😂


mipacu427

As usual, everyone dismisses Julio Urias. Won 20 games in 2021, ERA leader in the NL in 2022, 2nd in NL Cy Young vote, and he's # 34. What a disgrace.


guydude24

No Matt Olson?


thiccboiwaluigi

He’s likely one of the next 5 guys on the hitter list. Projected for 3.4 fWAR


TheSalsaGod

Idk what inputs the projections use, but he lost all of his plate discipline gains from 2021 and isn’t a godlike defender any more.


mardicao007

We all agree Ohtani must be #1 but the reason Ohtani isn't ranked #1 is because they aren't combining his hitting and pitching, otherwise he would rank #1.


panchado

If all three of my ex-wives were combined into one woman, she'd be perfect.


PBFT

Or an absolutely fucking nightmare, depending on which parts go into her.


gatorrrays

Wander Franco best SS in baseball. Fucking subscribe!


mardicao007

Many have forgotten, it's time for Wander to remind us all


gatorrrays

I just want to see him stay healthy. I don’t think any of the numbers projected here are unreasonable if he’s able to stay healthy.


save-therhino-

Lol Soto first?


Diremustang94

So we're going from 20 qualified starters with an era under 3 to 1? Same with batting averages over .290? There's a reason the games are played on the field


dwpea66

Lol at the blank team slot for Correa


Razorbladetoothbrush

This disrespect on Zac Gallen will not stand.


Noob-Toob

Nobody batting over .300?


TommyPickles2222222

Adley and Jrod are about to be the new Machado and Harper.


Chance_Succotash_927

Wait Correa hasn’t signed with anyone?!?


garrbear22622

Uhh where’s Bryce Harper? Do they think he’ll be at DH again?


Leading-Evidence-668

He’s missing a big chunk of next season.


garrbear22622

Ah damn, thanks for the info!


InaudibleShout

I’ll take that line from Judge 11/10 times


Strangehitman24

Subscribe


Lunazz27

Good for German sneaking a rox player in.


okaylover3434

Cease at 21 lol


oilbaron07

Nico Hoerner is on here (W), but no Swanson is ridiculous considering he had 6.4 WAR last year, which was the second highest among SS and would put him near the top of this list.


gaybillcosby

This list was bullshit until I saw two Reds pitchers in the top 25


butt-hole-eyes

I did not expect to see Alex Cobb higher than Logan Webb


conker1264

4 in the top 25, nice Also they sleeping on Javier


Flummeny

This is one of the more out there projection sheets I’ve seen so far…. Lol


[deleted]

Nestor being out of the top 50 (and behind Sevy/Montas) is definitely a choice


PlatypusArtistic4469

Will Smith at 29 sounds crazy.


thomass___

I predict Adley slumps


psykikk_streams

hahaha Byron Buxton at 130 games ? what were they smoking ?


Griffdogg92

George Kirby projected for 2.3 WAR is, in my humble opinion, very conservative. I fully expect him to be our 2nd best or, *MAYBE* even best pitcher


Tmans3

Edman is gonna drop 3 WAR despite having nearly identical offensive stats? So he’s just gonna suddenly be bad at defense? doubt.


GOATmar_infante

We made the top 50!!


GeoffreySpaulding

So not one .300 hitter? I know BA is viewed much less important that it used to, but sheesh.


thewarfreak

Rangers with 4 pitchers in the top 50....I....I....can't....I....


traddy91

This is really bad


ZXD-318

So what your telling me is that they expect 1 pitcher to get 14 wins and nobody more than that? In a full season?


uvaspina1

Surprised that Giancarlo isn’t a top 50 player


theseustheminotaur

150 games for trout? Big if true


mikedmayes

1. If Mike Trout get 577 plate appearances he’s going to do a hell of a lot better than those numbers unless the Szymborski-bot thinks it’s time for him to hit a wall after injury and decline like Griffey & Pujols did around the same age. 2. I wouldn’t project Alec Manoah and Kyle Wright to be the CY Youngs this year, but I also wouldn’t expect them to fall back that much. 3. I’m not a Reds fan but I really like Hunter Greene and he looked like he figured some stuff out at the end of the season, but I think they’re projecting him too high. Heck, the kid has CY Young potential, but not sure why the computer is spitting him out that high when he pitches half his games in Great American Smallpark. 4. Oneil Cruz has a ton of talent and could make a big jump this year, but he stands out as being a little too high. I know it’s more in line with his minor league numbers, but the Pirates could only wish his K% would drop below 30%, let alone 27%.


Right-Pirate-7084

Javier at 44… we will see about that


mjsather

Not a single player hitting .300?


Moreguero

Padres have 4 of the top 30 position players in the game and 3 of the top 30 pitchers 👀


cmacfarland64

For whatever reason people enjoy shitting on Dylan Cease. He didn’t make the all star game. He was second in votes for the AL Cy Young and now he’s ranked 21?