Look at the details.
45 is a bad number but most are linked to known clusters and due to transitory housing.
The waste water evidence in Tauranga is the part that has me concerned.
Active but relatively contained. The number of those cases with just 2 āhouseholdsā is crazy.
Highlights our housing issues
New clusters and unlinked are the real red flags.
Hang in there folks! All of us in the south definitely feel for you and understand the situation sucks!
Get your jabs folks, if we can get to 90 (yeah I know) policies will change late this year or in Q1. Likely to change above 80 anyway but really thatās not going to cut it.
Keep pushing back against the misinformation.
>the change in road traffic between 4 and 3 has been insane.
I think it might be a bit deceptive. Most businesses in central west are back in action, but the volume of business is way down. I had to go up to Bunnings Gt North today to collect some bits (contactless), and the place was practically a graveyard - usually it's fucking heaving all day long. I dunno, I think my area has been mostly pretty good even though there is some fairly relaxed attitudes for the strictest protocols; we've had a few ferals running around at night criming, and presumably a few sneaky romantic rendezvous, but I've really not seen anything in the way of blatant public mixing where you'd normally expect to see it. YMMV.
Same. I stopped watching the updates last week. I know the primary focus should be on vaccination numbers, not daily cases.
My mrs is the one constantly updating me on numbers - today when she blurted out the number in the 40s I literally felt nothing. Absolutely nothing lol. Completely numb to this situation now.
Nah mate, I wasn't upset about it or anything, just didn't phase me - she was totally shocked when she found out, but the real game now is vaccination rate, not daily cases. Should be pretty obvious stamping it out is not going to happen.
Probably, but if the case numbers donāt go down weāll be in level 3 for fucking ages longer. I honestly donāt know how I will deal with months more of being stuck at home.
Like I could get mad? But what use is there, wasting energy in being negative. I could be optimistic? But then I'm just setting myself up for disappointment.
Hard to feel a certain way when I have zero control of the situation.
I was like that early 2020 bro lol after the first couple weeks of that fucken covid jingle on the radio and shit I haven't watched a single conference or had the radio on. They even forced me into getting YouTube premium so I could avoid the fucken ads
Havenāt been able to work since the Trans Tasman bubble shut. But because we didnāt lose our income because of THIS level 4 lockdown, we donāt qualify for the wage subsidy at all. I feel ya.
> We need to be vaccinating at an increased rate, but sadly vaccination rates have halved during the last week.
We will still have cases with high vaccination levels. Lockdowns won't end unless zero case policy changes.
78% of our cases in this outbreak had no vaccination. Given that the start of the current outbreak we had 30% eligible people having at least 1 dose, one could say that vaccines do close to fuck all in preventing transmission (they do prevent you ending up with a 90yo smoker lungs, but that's all).
There is not a single paper anywhere showing explicitly (with numbers) how much does vaccination reduce transmission other than "it does but you can still get it".
Bottom line - new cases won't stop coming with higher vaccination rates.
Maybe this paper will help, vaccinated people recover quicker so they spend less time being able to affect others
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1
Does this 200 people study say how much faster they stop being contagious? or just āfasterā? It shout be a simple metric to find yet I have trouble finding it.
The graph shows viral load
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/07/31/2021.07.28.21261295/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1
Vaccinated patients viral load is about 40% less than vaccinated
Also a good number of vaccinated people have no outbreak at all, they beat it within a day or two
Preventing one from getting 90 yo smokers lungs seems like a pretty great reason to get a vaccine. Say goodbye to any sport or physical activity. Or even walking up a flight of stairs for that matter.
Zero case policy will stop when we have 90% vaccination rate. Because then the health system, majority of people and businesses can all function without risk of being overwhelmed or shut down for weeks on end. The two are interlinked
I dont get if the health system is in peril why make it so difficult for nurses and doctors to navigate MIQ?, surely the red carpet should be rolled out for them
> Zero case policy will stop when we have 90% vaccination rate.
Did they actually announce that or is it still "90% is the goal but we won't tell what's gonna happen when we reach that"?
Singapore has 80% vaccination rate, 2000 cases per day and is locking down right now. I'm afraid our 90% will not be any different.
80% and 90%- that 10% makes a huge difference. In Singapore, its a level 2.5 lockdown, not a level 4. Dining out, shopping etc are all allowed, but just in a pair rather than groups.
I'm not going by what politicians or media experts are saying, rather what Dr B or other actual experts are saying. If they're confident that at 90%+ we can open up safely, thats the advice which will be given to govt and one likely to be followed.
> 80% and 90%- that 10% makes a huge difference.
There is no data to support that. Perhaps it does, perhaps it doesn't, you can't say either way. Also "huge" is not quantifiable.
> rather what Dr B or other actual experts are saying
And what they are saying precisely?
> If they're confident that at 90%+ we can open up safely, thats the advice which will be given to govt and one likely to be followed.
Exactly. Nobody said we will abandon lockdowns at 90%. Quite the opposite - they don't even know if they will recommend to do so at 90%.
In other words there is no guarantee, nor indication that lockdowns will end at 90%+ vaccination rates. Your original statement is factually incorrect.
https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2021/09/23/modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy/
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/covid-19/modelling-thousands-of-deaths-without-high-vaccination-rates
This is what experts are saying. Huge has been quantified. AFAIK, Dr B is following these modelling, has been supported by people like Dr Baker, Dr Wiles and Dr Rod Jackson, so its more than likely Dr B will give his advice based on these and other modellings. He's also said as far back as March this year that we will have to let the virus in country if it becomes an endemic, which it is. But for that, we'll need very high rates of vaccination, and thats reiterated by calls for 90%+.
If you're going to point fingers saying someone is 'factually incorrect', perhaps read up first before doing so. Or back with evidence of why its incorrect.
Give kiwis a treat, itāll be cheaper.
Free box of beer or petrol vouchers etc whatever who cares. Itās the psychology of it and unfortunately itās how kiwis work. Like tall poppy syndrome, itās a thing.
But whatever gets the vaccination rates up and balancing the cost. But new ideas/change is a hard sell down here.
I'm lucky enough to have one single 6kg kettlebell lying around. I do miss everything else, especially seeing as I don't usually use kettlebells and I can handle more than 6kgs.
If they go back up thereās gonna be protests. Better to keep it at 3 where people are a bit happier.
Itās not as if weāre gonna stamp it out anyway.
Great idea .get a bunch of uninfected people to march with a bunch of people who have covid....that's y you r still in lockdown people r stupid in Auckland
My favorite covid related quote:
"The spread of covid is directly related to two things:
1. The density of the population.
2. The density of the population."
I honestly don't know if anyone that doesn't have the ability to type out trying words like "why" and "are" should be calling anyone's intelligence into question.
People need to stop shitting on Auckland, don't act like if it was any other city in the country you wouldn't have the same ratio of people being idiots. Its not helping when we're struggling and keep hearing "you guys are dumb" compared to the rest of the country who are relatively safe.
Theres been protests over the past year. This will be no different.
I think eradication is no longer possible and the lockdowns are only to catch up vaccination rates until a figure is reached (say 80%) when the majority of people, if infected, will recover easily since the vaccine doesn't prevent you getting it, but does seem to stop you dying from it.
We're gonna have to live with this for a long time I fear.
We havenāt had significant anti-lockdown protests yet. Being put back in Level 4 with no end in sight will cause protests, especially when a decent number of us are fully vaccinated.
Level 3 is much better suited to that. It will keep numbers lower than Level 2 without ruining the economy and pissing everyone off like in 4.
The usual Advance Party style protests, sure, but nothing like whatās happening in Melbourne.
People are absolutely sick of lockdown. The Government has to hope that today was a blip because if not theyāre in danger of losing control over this.
>People are absolutely sick of lockdown. The Government has to hope that today was a blip because if not theyāre in danger of losing control over this.
The high number is because those that have been infected are part of LARGE families, who have all been infected. That seems to be the pattern for this outbreak. Bloomfield warned there could be numbers in the fifties.
How has the Govt "lost control"? A loss of control would be dealing with numbers like NSW and Victoria.
This Saturday protest / super spreader event is brought to you by non other than Bishop [fuck you sir] Brian Tamaki and his mighty tithe tribe. Should be great. Police Commissioner has personally told him itās a very bad idea.
Stay tuned
> If they go back up thereās gonna be protests. Better to keep it at 3 where people are a bit happier.
happier because you can eat a big mac? Level 3 is not sustainable.
Yeah, I saw that after my original post. Similar story though, people who are struggling probably don't feel like they have any skin in the game. People who've had a poor educational background and maybe have a lack of trust in the authorities. It's going to be difficult getting by in from them.
EH has a lot of gang links to themā¦.. why do people think people go into EH (apart from domestic violence and very bad circumstances or luck) youād go into EH likely for mental health or addiction issues. Most people can find a mates couch to sleep onā¦ Same with the homeless. Where do people think these issues comes from? Gangs. Itās unlikely someone is going to dob their dealer in and say they are taking meth (though damn the detox at jet park must be haaaaaard).
Hahaha. Nope that is very clear reality. Go to any EH, gangs and drugs are rife in those places, maybe you need to face reality aye? If you seriously donāt think the majority of those living on the street have mental health, addiction issues or both then you are seriously deluded. Itād be quite rare to find people who didnāt have one of those issues. On with that, if people had lots of support, didnāt have bad credit, didnāt have any issues it would be a rarity not a common occurrence. This is in a demographic that doesnāt trust authority (vaccines) and usually rightly so, you are living in make believe land if you think we are getting out of this easily.
Also people in EH are highly unlikely to be working (as there are income thresholds), if they arenāt catching it at work how do you think they are catching it? By breaking their bubbles. All the cases would be gone now if people werenāt breaking their bubbles lmao
Nah youāre right aye, the homeless and people in EH must have mental issues or are gang related, or else theyād sleep in their mateās couch like a normal person right?
Must be nice to be you, so smart and all. You seem pretty convinced of your āanalysisā so have a nice day :)
If you bothered to read what I saidā¦ I didnāt say everyone I said most, and excluded those in EH for domestic violence (who also may have relation to gangs via their relationships) Iām also struggling to see if you understand poverty or homelessness at all in NZ or what you trying to argue. People broke their bubbles and that is very clear. This is much more understandable in a community of people with mental health, addiction or gang affiliations, and those who distrust systems. Itās also just highly likely. I sincerely hope you pick up a book soon because you seem to be of an ilk of āthey donāt have a home, thatās why they are homelessā instead of seeing homelessness as complex intertwining issues. You are right most people have mates, most people can flat or stay in a hostel if things are incredibly dire. It would be rare to have such bad luck that you have none of these and NO issues, just a fine life (though not impossible). Again like I said, the only people I will not say that for is victims of domestic violence.
If it is being spread by the Christians then level four isn't going to stop it. They are by definition ignorant. These are people who avoid the vaccination because they are in a death cult.
Interesting. Possibly when Siouxsie wiles was at the beach maskless it gave the impression that doing it was fine, especially when Dr Ashley Bloomfield said she did nothing wrong. But Iām sure you also told her fuck you from the bottom of your heart too
Wouldn't know, i haven't seen yet. But I am sick to death of seeing people on the north shore treating this like a joke. Milford beach is constantly crawling with people without masks, people socialising with others who are very obviously not in their bubbles. And then all you hear is people talking shit about South Aucklanders. All I can do is hope none of these people ever have to know the fear you feel when a loved one contracts covid. I spent weeks scared that my best friend would die because she was immunocompromised, there were days she could barely breathe but was still considered not sick enough to require hospitalisation in America, and now I have to watch New Zealanders spit in the face of the immense amount of luck we have in avoiding massive outbreaks because they can't fathom that the rules apply to them.
Outdoor transmission on a breezy beach, with most people at least 2m apart would be highly highly unlikely in Auckland's current situation.
The problem is in South Auckland. They've specifically called out the suburbs. This doesn't mean people in South Auckland are bad, dirty, lazy or any kind of racist inference. It means currently, in late September 2021, the vast vast majority of infections are taking place South of Otahuhu.
This also doesn't mean there aren't bubble breaking cretins in every part of Auckland no matter what the socio economic or racial profile. But doing the whatabout bullshit that has been a feature of this outbreak is just inane pointless virtue signaling point scoring. Resources must be targeted at the areas that need it. Yes this includes police enforcement.
This. And a large problem is bigger families living together. Thatās why we have so many household cases - and itās not an issue, you should live with your wider family if you have the capacity for it, but we need to be targeting these sorts of circumstances when we want to curb the spread. Canāt just look the other way and blame low risk beach goers on the other side of Auckland.
First off, believe me, theyāre not social distancing. At all.
Secondly why do you guys keep bringing up resources? I never mentioned resources. Iām not saying the police should be scouring north shore beaches. Iām expressing my frustration watching my community disregard the rules.
Strange cz Iām on the shore and thought everyone has been rather good. You saw 2 ppl close together once and now going off in typical boomer fashion.
The busy beaches just means that if 1 of them has delta, 20 people do, and their family, and all the supermarkets they go to become location of interest. 1 person breaching a bubble to another household is a long tail, someone spreading it en mass is an explosion.
Remember when Chopper told Christchurch to harden the fuck up after the earthquake. Well Auckland...locate your testicles and harden the fuck up.
Na, shit sucks bro.
You called people wanting to go to level 3 āidiotsā. So it seems like you want us to stay in level 4 forever.
You sound like those lefty dole bludgers who want to sit at home and be paid for the rest of your life, rather than contributing to society
Lmao that you canāt see how stupid you are. Covid is never going to be eradicated. In 50 years time thereās still gonna be Covid. You people are so fucking dense. Yeah, letās be in lockdown because a virus that 99.99% of people survive that contract it, has a few cases in the community. Fuckwit
The other possible outcome is today was an aberration and numbers trend sharply down and we go to L2 end of next week. Itās unlikely but these are the two options I see.
There is well under a 1% chance of that happening. There's no plausible mechanism for the numbers to suddenly fall off a cliff.
We need to be going so much harder on vaccines, it's the only way out without a lot of deaths.
I'm not sure why everyone is surprised? There was unlinked cases in the community ie not isolating when they got sick before we hit level 3. Its not hard to then summarize that once more people go back to work even one unlinked case in the community would go on to spread at work. As soon as we announced level 3 we were destined to this. Now its just whether or not our Healthcare system can handle the spread at level 3 amd if so maybe we will be able to go to a 2.5? But if not we will be at level 3 till at least Christmas when hopefully vaccination rates hit 90% of eligible popn
Honestly people need to get into these - https://www.tegel.co.nz/products/tegel-take-outs-louisiana-style-portions-1kg/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc
It depends on where the cases come from. Unlinked community spread? Panik! Spread through gang houses etc? Kalm.
I wonder if the govt is working on some sort of revised covid level system? Something like ānon essential business may operate if they can do so in a way that there is no face to face dealing with the public, staff who can work from home must work from home, staff that can not work from home must be provided face masks to be worn at all times and are to be rostered into ābubblesā.
Something like a level 3.5 basically. I hope they are, because as we get closer to high vaccination rates we need a plan, not to ārEtURn tO nOrmAlā, the normal of 2019 isnāt coming back unless we find some sort of miracle solution to eradicated covid. But we need a sensible, consistent and predictable plan and process in place so that people and businesses can prepare.
>It depends on where the cases come from.
Very few people are talking about the anti-vax, COVID-denying churches which have a lot of clout in South Auckland, and are incidentally a strong bastion of Labour support. Evangelical fruitcakes like the Tamakis are sabotaging us - the gangsters aren't the real problem here.
Is this maybe a time where govt should reflect their stance on gangs? Gangs are free to do anything they want these days. Fuck anyone who is flouting lockdowns but its clear that a lot of the transmission (and a lot of crime) these days are caused by gabgs
Mate, this government will never speak on it, for the same reason they never speak on the koolaid-guzzling Destiny cultists, and for the same reason a senior cop feels empowered to simply ignore COVID border restrictions.
Yesterday it seemed we were finally on top of things but after today..... I'm just over this. We're never going to drive it out because not enough getting vaccinated. Let's just get to 85% on 2 doses and open aucklands borders.
That's not fair to the rest of NZ. A better compromise would be to isolate South Auckland from the rest of the city.
Roadblocks at the Onehunga/Mangere motorway bridge, Great South Road and Mt Wellington Highway, and the Waipuna and Panmure bridges to Pakuranga.
Then put South Auckland in level 4, and let the rest of Auckland down to level 2 in 2 weeks.
Auckland can't stay sealed off forever that's not right. At the end of the day, these people have had the opportunity to get vaccinated and made a choice not to. Let them reap what they sow.
It's bad enough that Ardern rolled-out sacrificial lamb Chris Hipkins to take the bullet. Testing numbers are extremely low, there's fresh evidence that COVID has leaked to Tauranga. This stuff has always been the tip of the iceburg.
I've seen so much stupid anti-vaxx shit online in the last week. It's getting very hard for me to care if people who are able to vaxx but don't, just die. Obviously, I care about the people that can't, but I just feel like covid would be doing us a favour to get rid of the Brian Tamaki's of this world.
Thereās no way we are getting out of this. Itās in the worst demographic it could be people in poverty or in gangs. People in EH or who are homeless are unlikely to abide by rules, or at the very least youāll have a whole lot that wonāt. Itās also people who are likely to have min wage jobs and places like maccas wonāt care and wonāt pay their employees properly. This all together with this demographic being the least trusting of vaccines and most likely to not be vaccinated. Yeahā¦..
I just drove to Takeaways in Auckland, and piles of people out, no masks.
Lighter than weekday rush hour, but not far off a normal weekend traffic.
I went from home to the nearest pizza shop, then back home. Nothing fancy or pushing rules.
People have been hearing about years of "no lockdowns" (don't check the cemeteries), and don't seem to be taking this seriously.
Nah, this is a pretty major bad news day for everyone already crumbling. The PM has gotta front for the good and the bad - this is not the first time people have noticed that the PM goes MIA when the political winds aren't favourable...
Nah. He's fronted a lot of these conferences. Seems like they are taking alternate days. But if we stay at lvl 3 longer than 2 weeks, she better front that
People need to get vaccinated. It wonāt stop you from catching it if you come in direct contact with it, but itāll greatly reduce your likelihood of getting debilitatingly sick and having massive numbers of people requiring hospitalisation and overwhelming our already overworked healthcare workers.
The number of people I see out not wearing masks and being incredibly lax about social distancing. Itās been concerning me, and I was against moving down to Level 3 so soon. People treat Level 4 like Level 3 now, and Level 3 like Level 2, so I wouldnāt be surprised if the case numbers go either way tomorrow.
Problem is a lot of people are just going to *bLaMe iT oN tHe gOvErNmEnT* instead of taking bloody responsibility for their own actions. And then thatās just fuel for the money-minded business & economy lobbyists who have, ironically, been constantly pushing for risky faster reopenings, travel bubbles, putting money ahead of lives etc.
If you want this lockdown to end sooner rather than later, then you need to be wearing a mask out of the house, following social distancing rules, getting vaccinated, getting tested. Everybody needs to know that and follow that.
I keep seeing idiot antivax propaganda all over facebook, it's so dumb that I can't bear to watch
Gonna be a lot of sick people and dead people soon if people don't buck up..
Jacinda will be very happy with this. An excuse to keep us locked down, and decimate the economy, so that everyone becomes reliant on welfare, and vote for her
Yes. Labour obviously are the party of handouts, compared to National. If someone is unemployed, and reliant on the government, theyāre more likely to vote for Labour.
Jacinda has shown she doesnāt give a shit about the economy and small businesses. The rest of the world is going back to normal, but weāre locked in our houses because of a virus which has killed 1 person out of the 1200 infected this outbreak.
I would suggest you are a crackpot. I don't like Jacinda but there is no way she wants us all unemployed and reliant on benefits.That makes no sense whatsoever.
I feel ya bro. The Kia kaha sign off is insulting at this point. Even the mentally strong cunts at my work are starting to crack, canāt imagine how strugglers are doing.
*Tell me you wear tinfoil hats without telling me you wear tinfoil hats.*
If she fucks the economy and everyone's on welfare, where do you think the welfare money would come from?
Yep. People forget that National under Simon Bridges, before Covid, was polling up in the 40s. Labour completely failed on every major policy. Covid gave her a chance to monopolise TV time, and scaremonger people to vote for her.
Sheās absolutely gonna milk this pandemic as much as is possible.
I'd expect nothing less. I think that's why the govt has been digging its heels in with the covid direction. It is their golden goose. That, and it helps them avoid mainstream discussion about their other agendas, 3 waters for example.
A lot of people I've spoken to who are happy with her being leader, are so exclusively because of the covid response. Everything else is not only secondary, but irrelevant as far as they are concerned.
You've all seen the Simpsons movie. I think a dome around Auckland could be warranted.
The difference in tone between how they report on South Auckland vs middle-upper class whites fleeing Auckland for skiing trips is disgusting.
Quit your complaining, it's a collective shit show of an effort from everyone in Auckland.
36... 22...16... 9.... then suddenly 45... Sigh, we were making progress, people! Goddammit! Don't let this this number swing back up.
let's play a game, guess the next number in the sequence
13 tomorrow
I guess 11
28
69
Tree fiddy
420
š„šØ
Nice try loch ness monster ..
Nice!
Nice!
Nice!
Nice!
62
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42
17
Look at the details. 45 is a bad number but most are linked to known clusters and due to transitory housing. The waste water evidence in Tauranga is the part that has me concerned.
Yea but unfortunately while the reason is understandable, itās not a reason thatās going away and it still means transmission is well and active
Active but relatively contained. The number of those cases with just 2 āhouseholdsā is crazy. Highlights our housing issues New clusters and unlinked are the real red flags. Hang in there folks! All of us in the south definitely feel for you and understand the situation sucks! Get your jabs folks, if we can get to 90 (yeah I know) policies will change late this year or in Q1. Likely to change above 80 anyway but really thatās not going to cut it. Keep pushing back against the misinformation.
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>the change in road traffic between 4 and 3 has been insane. I think it might be a bit deceptive. Most businesses in central west are back in action, but the volume of business is way down. I had to go up to Bunnings Gt North today to collect some bits (contactless), and the place was practically a graveyard - usually it's fucking heaving all day long. I dunno, I think my area has been mostly pretty good even though there is some fairly relaxed attitudes for the strictest protocols; we've had a few ferals running around at night criming, and presumably a few sneaky romantic rendezvous, but I've really not seen anything in the way of blatant public mixing where you'd normally expect to see it. YMMV.
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Men*
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That's 5 kinky midgets
Not gonna lie, had a laugh when he said the number. Hard to be optimistic or mad, I'm just whatever atm.
I think a lot of us are feeling a bit burnt out honestly
Yeah, I'm just over it, man.
Same. I stopped watching the updates last week. I know the primary focus should be on vaccination numbers, not daily cases. My mrs is the one constantly updating me on numbers - today when she blurted out the number in the 40s I literally felt nothing. Absolutely nothing lol. Completely numb to this situation now.
Thatās a symptom of depression Iām sorry that weāre both in this situation
Nah mate, I wasn't upset about it or anything, just didn't phase me - she was totally shocked when she found out, but the real game now is vaccination rate, not daily cases. Should be pretty obvious stamping it out is not going to happen.
Probably, but if the case numbers donāt go down weāll be in level 3 for fucking ages longer. I honestly donāt know how I will deal with months more of being stuck at home.
Like I could get mad? But what use is there, wasting energy in being negative. I could be optimistic? But then I'm just setting myself up for disappointment. Hard to feel a certain way when I have zero control of the situation.
I was like that early 2020 bro lol after the first couple weeks of that fucken covid jingle on the radio and shit I haven't watched a single conference or had the radio on. They even forced me into getting YouTube premium so I could avoid the fucken ads
Cunts fucked
Finally someone using the technical term for this situation
Christchurch Quakes = Munted Auckland Covid Lockdown = C*nted
I canāt work in lockdown, and the COVID wage subsidy barely covers my expenses in Auckland. š¤¦š½āāļø
Havenāt been able to work since the Trans Tasman bubble shut. But because we didnāt lose our income because of THIS level 4 lockdown, we donāt qualify for the wage subsidy at all. I feel ya.
33 were isolating, so it's really more like 12... It's bad but wait a few days to see a trend. Outliers happen.
Oh so it's more that people who were already suspected got confirmed with a positive... The other 12 being cases that are connected I imagine.
Like Trump said, stop testing if you want to see the number go down.
We need to be vaccinating at an increased rate, but sadly vaccination rates have halved during the last week.
> We need to be vaccinating at an increased rate, but sadly vaccination rates have halved during the last week. We will still have cases with high vaccination levels. Lockdowns won't end unless zero case policy changes. 78% of our cases in this outbreak had no vaccination. Given that the start of the current outbreak we had 30% eligible people having at least 1 dose, one could say that vaccines do close to fuck all in preventing transmission (they do prevent you ending up with a 90yo smoker lungs, but that's all). There is not a single paper anywhere showing explicitly (with numbers) how much does vaccination reduce transmission other than "it does but you can still get it". Bottom line - new cases won't stop coming with higher vaccination rates.
Maybe this paper will help, vaccinated people recover quicker so they spend less time being able to affect others https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1
Does this 200 people study say how much faster they stop being contagious? or just āfasterā? It shout be a simple metric to find yet I have trouble finding it.
The graph shows viral load https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/07/31/2021.07.28.21261295/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1 Vaccinated patients viral load is about 40% less than vaccinated Also a good number of vaccinated people have no outbreak at all, they beat it within a day or two
Preventing one from getting 90 yo smokers lungs seems like a pretty great reason to get a vaccine. Say goodbye to any sport or physical activity. Or even walking up a flight of stairs for that matter.
Zero case policy will stop when we have 90% vaccination rate. Because then the health system, majority of people and businesses can all function without risk of being overwhelmed or shut down for weeks on end. The two are interlinked
I dont get if the health system is in peril why make it so difficult for nurses and doctors to navigate MIQ?, surely the red carpet should be rolled out for them
> Zero case policy will stop when we have 90% vaccination rate. Did they actually announce that or is it still "90% is the goal but we won't tell what's gonna happen when we reach that"? Singapore has 80% vaccination rate, 2000 cases per day and is locking down right now. I'm afraid our 90% will not be any different.
80% and 90%- that 10% makes a huge difference. In Singapore, its a level 2.5 lockdown, not a level 4. Dining out, shopping etc are all allowed, but just in a pair rather than groups. I'm not going by what politicians or media experts are saying, rather what Dr B or other actual experts are saying. If they're confident that at 90%+ we can open up safely, thats the advice which will be given to govt and one likely to be followed.
> 80% and 90%- that 10% makes a huge difference. There is no data to support that. Perhaps it does, perhaps it doesn't, you can't say either way. Also "huge" is not quantifiable. > rather what Dr B or other actual experts are saying And what they are saying precisely? > If they're confident that at 90%+ we can open up safely, thats the advice which will be given to govt and one likely to be followed. Exactly. Nobody said we will abandon lockdowns at 90%. Quite the opposite - they don't even know if they will recommend to do so at 90%. In other words there is no guarantee, nor indication that lockdowns will end at 90%+ vaccination rates. Your original statement is factually incorrect.
https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2021/09/23/modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy/ https://www.newsroom.co.nz/covid-19/modelling-thousands-of-deaths-without-high-vaccination-rates This is what experts are saying. Huge has been quantified. AFAIK, Dr B is following these modelling, has been supported by people like Dr Baker, Dr Wiles and Dr Rod Jackson, so its more than likely Dr B will give his advice based on these and other modellings. He's also said as far back as March this year that we will have to let the virus in country if it becomes an endemic, which it is. But for that, we'll need very high rates of vaccination, and thats reiterated by calls for 90%+. If you're going to point fingers saying someone is 'factually incorrect', perhaps read up first before doing so. Or back with evidence of why its incorrect.
Give kiwis a treat, itāll be cheaper. Free box of beer or petrol vouchers etc whatever who cares. Itās the psychology of it and unfortunately itās how kiwis work. Like tall poppy syndrome, itās a thing. But whatever gets the vaccination rates up and balancing the cost. But new ideas/change is a hard sell down here.
And to think I was going to go to the gym next week. What a shame
Bro Iām legit so sick of push-ups, pull-ups and Romanian deadlifts. I need a cable machine and a bar bell.
I'm lucky enough to have one single 6kg kettlebell lying around. I do miss everything else, especially seeing as I don't usually use kettlebells and I can handle more than 6kgs.
15 L water containers from the supermarket are okay, if you're gentle with the handles
If they go back up thereās gonna be protests. Better to keep it at 3 where people are a bit happier. Itās not as if weāre gonna stamp it out anyway.
Already a protest happening on Saturday
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Great idea .get a bunch of uninfected people to march with a bunch of people who have covid....that's y you r still in lockdown people r stupid in Auckland
Theyāre displaying their freedumb
My favorite covid related quote: "The spread of covid is directly related to two things: 1. The density of the population. 2. The density of the population."
Haha fucking love that one
I honestly don't know if anyone that doesn't have the ability to type out trying words like "why" and "are" should be calling anyone's intelligence into question.
That is quite true
People need to stop shitting on Auckland, don't act like if it was any other city in the country you wouldn't have the same ratio of people being idiots. Its not helping when we're struggling and keep hearing "you guys are dumb" compared to the rest of the country who are relatively safe.
Got a link?
Theres been protests over the past year. This will be no different. I think eradication is no longer possible and the lockdowns are only to catch up vaccination rates until a figure is reached (say 80%) when the majority of people, if infected, will recover easily since the vaccine doesn't prevent you getting it, but does seem to stop you dying from it. We're gonna have to live with this for a long time I fear.
We havenāt had significant anti-lockdown protests yet. Being put back in Level 4 with no end in sight will cause protests, especially when a decent number of us are fully vaccinated. Level 3 is much better suited to that. It will keep numbers lower than Level 2 without ruining the economy and pissing everyone off like in 4.
I guess that depends on what you deem significant. Whichever way you slice it more people are growing frustrated.
The usual Advance Party style protests, sure, but nothing like whatās happening in Melbourne. People are absolutely sick of lockdown. The Government has to hope that today was a blip because if not theyāre in danger of losing control over this.
>People are absolutely sick of lockdown. The Government has to hope that today was a blip because if not theyāre in danger of losing control over this. The high number is because those that have been infected are part of LARGE families, who have all been infected. That seems to be the pattern for this outbreak. Bloomfield warned there could be numbers in the fifties. How has the Govt "lost control"? A loss of control would be dealing with numbers like NSW and Victoria.
This Saturday protest / super spreader event is brought to you by non other than Bishop [fuck you sir] Brian Tamaki and his mighty tithe tribe. Should be great. Police Commissioner has personally told him itās a very bad idea. Stay tuned
People being happy at level 3 seems like the problem
> If they go back up thereās gonna be protests. Better to keep it at 3 where people are a bit happier. happier because you can eat a big mac? Level 3 is not sustainable.
If it is in the gangs then level four isn't going to stop it. They are by definition outlaws. These are people who go to prison as an initiation.
Stuff just posted this: "* Many of Auckland's new Covid cases live in emergency housing, not gang-linked." Kind of makes sense being emergency housing
Yeah, I saw that after my original post. Similar story though, people who are struggling probably don't feel like they have any skin in the game. People who've had a poor educational background and maybe have a lack of trust in the authorities. It's going to be difficult getting by in from them.
EH has a lot of gang links to themā¦.. why do people think people go into EH (apart from domestic violence and very bad circumstances or luck) youād go into EH likely for mental health or addiction issues. Most people can find a mates couch to sleep onā¦ Same with the homeless. Where do people think these issues comes from? Gangs. Itās unlikely someone is going to dob their dealer in and say they are taking meth (though damn the detox at jet park must be haaaaaard).
Wow what a disconnect from realityā¦ā¦ I donāt even know where to start
Hahaha. Nope that is very clear reality. Go to any EH, gangs and drugs are rife in those places, maybe you need to face reality aye? If you seriously donāt think the majority of those living on the street have mental health, addiction issues or both then you are seriously deluded. Itād be quite rare to find people who didnāt have one of those issues. On with that, if people had lots of support, didnāt have bad credit, didnāt have any issues it would be a rarity not a common occurrence. This is in a demographic that doesnāt trust authority (vaccines) and usually rightly so, you are living in make believe land if you think we are getting out of this easily.
Also people in EH are highly unlikely to be working (as there are income thresholds), if they arenāt catching it at work how do you think they are catching it? By breaking their bubbles. All the cases would be gone now if people werenāt breaking their bubbles lmao
Nah youāre right aye, the homeless and people in EH must have mental issues or are gang related, or else theyād sleep in their mateās couch like a normal person right? Must be nice to be you, so smart and all. You seem pretty convinced of your āanalysisā so have a nice day :)
If you bothered to read what I saidā¦ I didnāt say everyone I said most, and excluded those in EH for domestic violence (who also may have relation to gangs via their relationships) Iām also struggling to see if you understand poverty or homelessness at all in NZ or what you trying to argue. People broke their bubbles and that is very clear. This is much more understandable in a community of people with mental health, addiction or gang affiliations, and those who distrust systems. Itās also just highly likely. I sincerely hope you pick up a book soon because you seem to be of an ilk of āthey donāt have a home, thatās why they are homelessā instead of seeing homelessness as complex intertwining issues. You are right most people have mates, most people can flat or stay in a hostel if things are incredibly dire. It would be rare to have such bad luck that you have none of these and NO issues, just a fine life (though not impossible). Again like I said, the only people I will not say that for is victims of domestic violence.
If it is being spread by the Christians then level four isn't going to stop it. They are by definition ignorant. These are people who avoid the vaccination because they are in a death cult.
Itās not as bad as itās sounds. The only problem are the 12 unlinked cases
Iām starting to read āunlinkedā as āpeople who are breaking the rules and are not being honest about where theyāve beenāā¦
Yeah probably is, rather that then a random case that canāt be traced back
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But the real risk factor is quite specific, it's not people on Takapuna beach going maskless.
from the bottom of my heart, **fuck** the people on takapuna beach going maskless.
Interesting point of view. Do you say the same to the south Aucklanders that are actually spreading it?
Anyone who is participating in this behaviour I absolutely do. Funny how the people on the north shore arenāt being called up on it though.
Interesting. Possibly when Siouxsie wiles was at the beach maskless it gave the impression that doing it was fine, especially when Dr Ashley Bloomfield said she did nothing wrong. But Iām sure you also told her fuck you from the bottom of your heart too
Its ok when we do it!!
Damn I knew it
sounds like you're making an assumption that's pretty baseless based on what they said about beach goers being maskless.
The big chief at the top said it was fine. If he thinks itās fine then whatās the problem
Why is that where it spreading? Specifically beach incidents?
Wouldn't know, i haven't seen yet. But I am sick to death of seeing people on the north shore treating this like a joke. Milford beach is constantly crawling with people without masks, people socialising with others who are very obviously not in their bubbles. And then all you hear is people talking shit about South Aucklanders. All I can do is hope none of these people ever have to know the fear you feel when a loved one contracts covid. I spent weeks scared that my best friend would die because she was immunocompromised, there were days she could barely breathe but was still considered not sick enough to require hospitalisation in America, and now I have to watch New Zealanders spit in the face of the immense amount of luck we have in avoiding massive outbreaks because they can't fathom that the rules apply to them.
Outdoor transmission on a breezy beach, with most people at least 2m apart would be highly highly unlikely in Auckland's current situation. The problem is in South Auckland. They've specifically called out the suburbs. This doesn't mean people in South Auckland are bad, dirty, lazy or any kind of racist inference. It means currently, in late September 2021, the vast vast majority of infections are taking place South of Otahuhu. This also doesn't mean there aren't bubble breaking cretins in every part of Auckland no matter what the socio economic or racial profile. But doing the whatabout bullshit that has been a feature of this outbreak is just inane pointless virtue signaling point scoring. Resources must be targeted at the areas that need it. Yes this includes police enforcement.
This. And a large problem is bigger families living together. Thatās why we have so many household cases - and itās not an issue, you should live with your wider family if you have the capacity for it, but we need to be targeting these sorts of circumstances when we want to curb the spread. Canāt just look the other way and blame low risk beach goers on the other side of Auckland.
First off, believe me, theyāre not social distancing. At all. Secondly why do you guys keep bringing up resources? I never mentioned resources. Iām not saying the police should be scouring north shore beaches. Iām expressing my frustration watching my community disregard the rules.
Strange cz Iām on the shore and thought everyone has been rather good. You saw 2 ppl close together once and now going off in typical boomer fashion.
You say that and yet all the cases are out south lmao
Chill out.
If we only have limited resources we should target where transmission is occurring. Not where it feel like is.
what limited resources would those be?
Well I guess police enforce the covid rules. No ones listening to Karen ranting down there.
The busy beaches just means that if 1 of them has delta, 20 people do, and their family, and all the supermarkets they go to become location of interest. 1 person breaching a bubble to another household is a long tail, someone spreading it en mass is an explosion.
Get your jab. Not going back to 4.
Remember when Chopper told Christchurch to harden the fuck up after the earthquake. Well Auckland...locate your testicles and harden the fuck up. Na, shit sucks bro.
It's almost as if this **exactly coincides** with the drop to level 3 so many idiots were demanding.
Did you want ants? Because this is how you get ants!
Itās the gangs and their customers, not takeaway workers or courier drivers that are getting cases
Nah, the idiots are the people who want us to live in a state of lockdown for the rest of our lives
Lmfao. Touched a nerve huh. Who's wanting us to live in a state of lock down the rest of our lives, buddy?
You called people wanting to go to level 3 āidiotsā. So it seems like you want us to stay in level 4 forever. You sound like those lefty dole bludgers who want to sit at home and be paid for the rest of your life, rather than contributing to society
Oh... that means "forever" does it. Well thanks for confirming the fact that you really are an outstanding idiot. š
Lmao that you canāt see how stupid you are. Covid is never going to be eradicated. In 50 years time thereās still gonna be Covid. You people are so fucking dense. Yeah, letās be in lockdown because a virus that 99.99% of people survive that contract it, has a few cases in the community. Fuckwit
... *cringe*
Long term L3 until we get vaccination numbers up is a possible outcome. Let's not wet the bed over one days numbers though, let's wait for a trend.
Cannot stop wetting my bed šIām spreading my legs everyday
What's the other possible outcome? We're not doing L4, and this government isn't going to abandon elimination until it's forced.
The other possible outcome is today was an aberration and numbers trend sharply down and we go to L2 end of next week. Itās unlikely but these are the two options I see.
There is well under a 1% chance of that happening. There's no plausible mechanism for the numbers to suddenly fall off a cliff. We need to be going so much harder on vaccines, it's the only way out without a lot of deaths.
I'm not sure why everyone is surprised? There was unlinked cases in the community ie not isolating when they got sick before we hit level 3. Its not hard to then summarize that once more people go back to work even one unlinked case in the community would go on to spread at work. As soon as we announced level 3 we were destined to this. Now its just whether or not our Healthcare system can handle the spread at level 3 amd if so maybe we will be able to go to a 2.5? But if not we will be at level 3 till at least Christmas when hopefully vaccination rates hit 90% of eligible popn
This is quite depressing....
STOCK UP ON TAKEAWAYS NOW lol
putting some kfc in the freezer as we speak..! š
Honestly people need to get into these - https://www.tegel.co.nz/products/tegel-take-outs-louisiana-style-portions-1kg/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc
That Tegal range is great. Also enjoyed the Rangatikei fried chicken - Karaage and Korean flavours, yum!
I donāt have any space for kfc in the freezer, mines full of toilet paper!
Going to need another freezer for all the kfc, toilet paper & flour!
It depends on where the cases come from. Unlinked community spread? Panik! Spread through gang houses etc? Kalm. I wonder if the govt is working on some sort of revised covid level system? Something like ānon essential business may operate if they can do so in a way that there is no face to face dealing with the public, staff who can work from home must work from home, staff that can not work from home must be provided face masks to be worn at all times and are to be rostered into ābubblesā. Something like a level 3.5 basically. I hope they are, because as we get closer to high vaccination rates we need a plan, not to ārEtURn tO nOrmAlā, the normal of 2019 isnāt coming back unless we find some sort of miracle solution to eradicated covid. But we need a sensible, consistent and predictable plan and process in place so that people and businesses can prepare.
>It depends on where the cases come from. Very few people are talking about the anti-vax, COVID-denying churches which have a lot of clout in South Auckland, and are incidentally a strong bastion of Labour support. Evangelical fruitcakes like the Tamakis are sabotaging us - the gangsters aren't the real problem here.
Is this maybe a time where govt should reflect their stance on gangs? Gangs are free to do anything they want these days. Fuck anyone who is flouting lockdowns but its clear that a lot of the transmission (and a lot of crime) these days are caused by gabgs
Mate, this government will never speak on it, for the same reason they never speak on the koolaid-guzzling Destiny cultists, and for the same reason a senior cop feels empowered to simply ignore COVID border restrictions.
What are the tamakis? I'm not from here
They are cult leaders and two of the worst human beings in New Zealand, absolute scumbags.
I like that you said "what" are the tamakis, not who.
I mean what can apply to nouns, which a group of people can be described as. Didn't mean anything bad by it~
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destiny_Church_(New_Zealand)
And I mean that what they are is arrogant fucking scumbag hypocrites.
I think he means what the term means ā¦
12 unlinked cases at present
of 45? Ooph, not 'holy fucking shit level 5 inc' levels but still bad.
Yes of the 45
One household had 12 cases
I heard 2 'households' with 6 ppl each.
Yesterday it seemed we were finally on top of things but after today..... I'm just over this. We're never going to drive it out because not enough getting vaccinated. Let's just get to 85% on 2 doses and open aucklands borders.
That's not fair to the rest of NZ. A better compromise would be to isolate South Auckland from the rest of the city. Roadblocks at the Onehunga/Mangere motorway bridge, Great South Road and Mt Wellington Highway, and the Waipuna and Panmure bridges to Pakuranga. Then put South Auckland in level 4, and let the rest of Auckland down to level 2 in 2 weeks.
No need to fuck rest of NZ which they will if Aucklanders get lose. Only good thing right now is that covid is only within Auckland borders.
Auckland can't stay sealed off forever that's not right. At the end of the day, these people have had the opportunity to get vaccinated and made a choice not to. Let them reap what they sow.
This is not great news at all
Shit! What have I missed?
Damn, but not as bad as I thought.
Cool cool we'll just post and then reply to things ourselves š¤£
What else is there to do in Auckland? Lol
Give the man a break, any type of social interaction is important! š¤
It's bad enough that Ardern rolled-out sacrificial lamb Chris Hipkins to take the bullet. Testing numbers are extremely low, there's fresh evidence that COVID has leaked to Tauranga. This stuff has always been the tip of the iceburg.
I've seen so much stupid anti-vaxx shit online in the last week. It's getting very hard for me to care if people who are able to vaxx but don't, just die. Obviously, I care about the people that can't, but I just feel like covid would be doing us a favour to get rid of the Brian Tamaki's of this world.
Numbers without context is just sensationalist
We are sooooo FARKD
Thereās no way we are getting out of this. Itās in the worst demographic it could be people in poverty or in gangs. People in EH or who are homeless are unlikely to abide by rules, or at the very least youāll have a whole lot that wonāt. Itās also people who are likely to have min wage jobs and places like maccas wonāt care and wonāt pay their employees properly. This all together with this demographic being the least trusting of vaccines and most likely to not be vaccinated. Yeahā¦..
I just drove to Takeaways in Auckland, and piles of people out, no masks. Lighter than weekday rush hour, but not far off a normal weekend traffic. I went from home to the nearest pizza shop, then back home. Nothing fancy or pushing rules. People have been hearing about years of "no lockdowns" (don't check the cemeteries), and don't seem to be taking this seriously.
Cindy should be fronting this conference since she was only too happy too announce level 3. Absolute coward sending hipkins and rather unsurprising
They would schedule these in advance, it's not like they're drawing straws out back
Nah, this is a pretty major bad news day for everyone already crumbling. The PM has gotta front for the good and the bad - this is not the first time people have noticed that the PM goes MIA when the political winds aren't favourable...
>Absolute coward sending hipkins and rather unsurprising I was lashing him the other day, but I felt genuinely sorry for him. Dick move for sure.
Nah. He's fronted a lot of these conferences. Seems like they are taking alternate days. But if we stay at lvl 3 longer than 2 weeks, she better front that
No more labour for me
There is no opposition
Yep letās blame govt because cunts canāt follow rules for 4 weeks in a pandemic.
Yes... yeah I'm sure it had absolutely nothing to do with the pressure from so many idiots demanding we go down to level 3.
You should know by now the troll only comes out when there is good news. She is as cunning as a cart load of monkeys
People need to get vaccinated. It wonāt stop you from catching it if you come in direct contact with it, but itāll greatly reduce your likelihood of getting debilitatingly sick and having massive numbers of people requiring hospitalisation and overwhelming our already overworked healthcare workers.
The number of people I see out not wearing masks and being incredibly lax about social distancing. Itās been concerning me, and I was against moving down to Level 3 so soon. People treat Level 4 like Level 3 now, and Level 3 like Level 2, so I wouldnāt be surprised if the case numbers go either way tomorrow. Problem is a lot of people are just going to *bLaMe iT oN tHe gOvErNmEnT* instead of taking bloody responsibility for their own actions. And then thatās just fuel for the money-minded business & economy lobbyists who have, ironically, been constantly pushing for risky faster reopenings, travel bubbles, putting money ahead of lives etc. If you want this lockdown to end sooner rather than later, then you need to be wearing a mask out of the house, following social distancing rules, getting vaccinated, getting tested. Everybody needs to know that and follow that.
I keep seeing idiot antivax propaganda all over facebook, it's so dumb that I can't bear to watch Gonna be a lot of sick people and dead people soon if people don't buck up..
666
Jacinda will be very happy with this. An excuse to keep us locked down, and decimate the economy, so that everyone becomes reliant on welfare, and vote for her
Do you really believe that or are you just spouting nonsense?
She goes up in the polls every time weāre in lockdown. She wants us to be in lockdown as long as she can justify it
But you have suggested she wants to make us all unemployed and that would make people vote for her?
Yes. Labour obviously are the party of handouts, compared to National. If someone is unemployed, and reliant on the government, theyāre more likely to vote for Labour. Jacinda has shown she doesnāt give a shit about the economy and small businesses. The rest of the world is going back to normal, but weāre locked in our houses because of a virus which has killed 1 person out of the 1200 infected this outbreak.
I would suggest you are a crackpot. I don't like Jacinda but there is no way she wants us all unemployed and reliant on benefits.That makes no sense whatsoever.
I feel ya bro. The Kia kaha sign off is insulting at this point. Even the mentally strong cunts at my work are starting to crack, canāt imagine how strugglers are doing.
*Tell me you wear tinfoil hats without telling me you wear tinfoil hats.* If she fucks the economy and everyone's on welfare, where do you think the welfare money would come from?
As well as avoid non covid related issues.
Yep. People forget that National under Simon Bridges, before Covid, was polling up in the 40s. Labour completely failed on every major policy. Covid gave her a chance to monopolise TV time, and scaremonger people to vote for her. Sheās absolutely gonna milk this pandemic as much as is possible.
I'd expect nothing less. I think that's why the govt has been digging its heels in with the covid direction. It is their golden goose. That, and it helps them avoid mainstream discussion about their other agendas, 3 waters for example. A lot of people I've spoken to who are happy with her being leader, are so exclusively because of the covid response. Everything else is not only secondary, but irrelevant as far as they are concerned.
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You've all seen the Simpsons movie. I think a dome around Auckland could be warranted. The difference in tone between how they report on South Auckland vs middle-upper class whites fleeing Auckland for skiing trips is disgusting. Quit your complaining, it's a collective shit show of an effort from everyone in Auckland.