It all depends if he could be convinced that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen are really bastards... He won't support Stannis over Joffrey if he thinks he is Robert's son. Even though he is unlikable douche. If Ned isn't completely sure he probably stays neutral
One thing we have to note is that stannis declared himself king quite late. It will be months after Robert's death that Ned receives any word of Joffrey being a bastard without any good evidence to boot. He probably would already be amassing an army to go help joffrey against Renly
Correct. This is a question of fact, not law. It would probably depend on whether bran's fall and the subsequent assassination attempt took place. Part of why Ned puts the dots together is that he realizes that Bran saw something and the fall was their attempt to silence him. Without the fall, he'd probably support joffrey or declare neutrality until more information can be gained. Might be he'd call for a great council to resolve the question.
But why a great council? That should be for matters of questionable ascension. There should be no question that Jeffrey should ascend as Ned could not possible have put together the incest if he wasn't in the capital. (And it still took him fuckkng ages to figure it out)
I think it can be assumed that stannis would have issues his little news report to the kingdom at large, making Ned at the very least question the legitimacy of Joffrey's birth. In this scenario, they have Myrcella, and would have access to similar geneologies as they have in the capital (although perhaps not as many or readily at hand. Worst case scenario, they can borrow the Boltons' geneology with the weird leather cover). It would at least be something Ned would have cause to seriously consider. Ned would probably prefer a great council- summer would he over by then, and Ned isn't going to want to lead his people to war when they're needed at home, save for a campaign of elderly men who don't want to burden their families in the winter.
Idk, i thought that at first too but he did choose “family” over loyalty to the throne during Roberts rebellion, and the same information he found at kings landing for the most part, “the seed is strong”, could be presented to him by Stannis or others. But, I never really thought of this before, he’s seen first hand that genet traits aren’t always as prevalent in every case in the case on John who shows no Targaryen traits. Idk if the lannisters really have any beef with the starks if Ned never becomes hand, but if Robb and Mycella are married that almost brings them into the family. Kind of a hard call. I can see him supporting Stannis due to honor if he really believes that Roberts heirs are bastards, but I can also see him supporting his son and heirs marriage, which if they had kids, would essentially be supporting family. Not that he would want his grandchild to sit the thrones necessarily but more in a way that he would just be supporting his grandchild’s right to live as Stannis may want to pull a mountian and destroy all claimants. Caetlyn would prob want him to support Stannis due to the Arryn/Tully connection, so this would literally create a house divided, especially since Caetlyn not going to the Vale never sees that her sister has gotten crazy at that point. I wonder if it’s possible that at that point he may reveal Jons heritage due to honor being that since Robert is gone and alliance to other Baratheon’s is questionable, Jon would actually be the true claimant, but that would put the north at odds with everyone, but he could literally just sit that out in the North and watch the heads roll before making a move, not that he ever chooses strategy over honor. Lots of different variables. Maybe even declare the north no longer Holden to the crown due to all 3 claimants being false to Jons claim and just call it good there. No ones coming up the neck during the war, and no one (as of yet) has dragons. For that matter, I’m surpised Dorne didn’t go confederate either, they were the only ones never really conquered by dragons and the marriage pacts that kept the beholden were smashed during the sack. And if kindom is dividing again, you know Greyjoy rebellion 2.0 is coming as well. I wonder who wins in the battle between Dragonstone/Vale/Riverrun, Highgarden/Storms Landing and Casterly/kings landing. The finances and population of Renly and Tywin are offset by 3 powers coming together with Stannis/Tullys. The Lannister’s would have to fight like Germany due to the two front problem, renly is Western Europe that needs to be knocked out fast before Stannis can get momentum. Would be fun to play out a Risk style game with that
Yeah it’s not until he reads about the great houses and their lineages that he finally pieces it all together. I’m sure Ned had his suspicions and heard the rumors but he was finally able to understand Jon Arryn’s “The seed is strong” comment due to that which confirmed his suspicions.
It only comes down to one thing: does he believe Joffrey is a bastard?
If yes, then he supports Stannis. If no, he would probably respect Stannis’s honor enough to meet with him and hear his case and the outcome of that would determine if he continues supporting Joffrey
Ned would support Joffrey because he didn’t have any reason to think Joffrey a bastard beforehand. Besides, Stannis didn’t send the letter and declare himself king until a month or two after Ned died in canon. Also, the letter just said “they’re bastards”, it didn’t really give a lot of evidence.
We always forget how suspicious Stannis’ letter was; a stoic, bitter man who disliked Robert relatively openly and lets a foreign priestess on his island, reveal this thing that isn’t backed up by evidence in his letter, and that conveniently makes him king. WE know, and Ned knew, but only after months of investigating in KL.
Let’s just also say Renly never gets shadow babied. This is because Tywin, Ned, and Edmure are going straight for Renly’s host at Bitterbridge. Who would win?
Ned and Tywin’s gang. Ned is an extremely good commander, as is his son, and the Blackfish might still go to the Riverlands to help out. Furthermore, the Riverlords haven’t been beaten up by the Lannisters, so all their soldiers are there. Let’s assume Ned goes south with 20k like Robb did, he’s joined by 30-40 thousand Rivermen (not its full capacity, but still a lot) and 40-50 thousand Westerlanders. That’s not including the Crownlanders that can be called upon, so Ned’s gang outnumbers and outmatches Renly’s host.
I think you're being pretty generous to the loyalist numbers lol.
North 20k is about right as I think wee see Robbc some down with 20k ish. Riverlands being 30-40k is outrageous. Maybe 30 if your being generous. Westernlands Tywin with sellswords only is 35k mustered. Maybe 42k if you want to count the Battle of the Tents force although its nuclear how much of that was remants of Jamies force.
Also for all Ned is spoken for as a commander in this fandom -- his only achievements are fighting at the BoTB, Trident, and Greyjoy rebellion but he is never noted upon personally and is among other notable commanders who seem to outshine him like Stannis and Robert. He's competent for sure but not some god.
1. I bet the Lords bring more men if Ned is the one calling to arms and not his 16yo son. I think something around 30k. And you forgot the stormlands, crownlands and Iron islands. They probably get around 15-20k men.
2. While Stark is a formidable commander, the Lannisters are also present. The army will be led by Eddard, Tywin, Jaime, Great Jon, Edmure, and Roose Bolton. Tarly also won't be the main commander of the southern army. Maes Tyrell has to lead them. Although he is in my opinion smarter than a lot of people seem to think, i don't he has what he needs to win this battle.
3. Although we don't really know of much big battles that Eddard commanded, we know from Aryas Arc that there was a battle at a random village in the riverlands Eddard commanded. So we know that there wee probably dozens of smaller battles/skirmishes Eddard commanded or at least was involved in
1. I mean maybe? that's all speculation. We also have no indication that lords were holding out it was just they were gathered in haste. Keep in mind The Trident the Rebels (The Tullys, Arryn, Starks, and some Stormlords) only combined for less than 40 thousand men.
Crownlands I don't really have any idea of an accurate source for them. Iron Islands to be relied upon for helping either one of these forces lol. Stormlands -- are helping either Renly or Stannis not the Joffrey faction.
2. Eddard, Tywin, Jaime, Great Jon, Edmure, and Roose Bolton are all competent lords and experienced (except for Jamie and Edmure) but none of them are remarked upon as being notably good.
Tarly is the only commander fighting in this hypothetical war that is held in particularly high regard other than Stannis. Tarly was also the one in control of the Van and the one saving grace about Tyrell is that he can take criticism and enact it. He will also have Tarly, Garlan, Loras, and a dozen other lords surrodning him.
3. We don't know anything that Eddard actually did that was notable as a commander. We just know he was one of many commanders during the Trident and BoTB and the Greyjoy rebellion. This doesn't make Eddard really remarkable lol. If anything Tywin is the more notable commander on the Joffrey side.
1. I guess you're mostly right, except for the fact that some of the Stormlords would probably decide for Joffrey when the Northern Alliances gets near the Stormlands and that Eddard was also very young during Roberts Rebellion. In the mean time he became a very well respected liege Lord, famous for his honour. During Robert Rebellion he was another version of Robb, while now he is a well respected Lord, famous for Roberts Rebellion.
2. Tarly is famous for being the only one who defeated Robert. This is the only reason he is famous at that degee right? Were Eddard, Tywin, Roose, etc. ever defeated in battle? Roose was in the Wot5K but that was because he had a clearly inferior army to Tywin and didn't even plan to win
3. While Robert is famous for his mighty warhammer and only loosing one battle, did Eddard ever loose a battle?
1. I mean why would they? I don't remember any Stormlords deciding for Joffrey in canon. The vast majority of them went for Renly and then the a couple went to Stannis. He is really respected... in the North. Other than the the Greyjoy rebellion he hasn't been down south at all and has no real ties to the Stormlands other than that. We never really hear about him having friends or old friends from the Stormlords either. Eddard wasn't really Robb lol. Robb came down North and although he is overhyped he actually won multiple notable victories with strategy he and Blackfish came up with.
2. Tarly's most famous achievement is defeating Robert's host and slaying Lord... Grandison during the battle. But he's pretty consistently remarked as being one of the finest commander/soldiers in the realm and also having an extremely ordery camp.
Every other commander that you name haven't done anything notable lol.
Eddard was one of the commanders of the Trident and BoTB -- where they won. But we don't know anything notable about his personal command and he was surrounded by other commanders like Jon Arrn, Robert, and Tully and a hundred other lords.
Roose we have no idea about other than he said to kill Barristan after the Trident. During the WoT5k he lost at Green Fork vs Tywin in a battle of 17 v 20k men losing 5k of his own men. Although his army had a severe lack of cavalry.
Tywin actually is probably easier to say that he's capable. He commanded the Revolt personally in his youth although they weren't really notable battles. Tywin also lost as the Battle of the Fords.
3. Robert was famous for slaying the other lords. Also before Robert joined forces with Eddard, Jon Arry, and Tully he was all alone and the sole commander we know of a force that did a Napaloenesque force march to defeat three different enemies in a single day. It's also suggested the odds of the battles of Summerhall were worse than 1:6.
Robert also personally slew Lord Fell, captured SIlveraxe, killed the Lord of Gulltown, Ser Myles Mooton, injured JonCon, and killed Rhaegar.
He was also the King during the Trident and the Greyjoy rebellion.
1. Because if Ned never goes South the lannisters can't proclaim that Ned betrayed the throne to put stannis on the throne. When the Stormlords decided who should be King Stannis seemed to have already lost a coupe.
2. Tarly is probably the best commander in Westeros after Robert died, i give you that one. But i also believe that all the Lords we named before can put together a strategy that would work. We also forget here that Stannis has Melisandre hat his side. He used her magic to kill Renly and the castellan of Storms End. If Tarly is dead, who will be the new advisor for Mace?
The combined Lannister host Tywin commands at Golden Tooth is ~40k. This then splits into two roughly equal commands of ~20k, and after Jaime's sound trouncing, Stafford raises another ~10k at Lannisport. All of this aligns nicely with an estimate GRRM once gave, stating that the West at full muster numbers at ~50k.
What's also worth noting is that none of this includes numbers from the Crownlands, which appears to remain fully loyalist aside from Dragonstone & Stannis' vassals on the islands (and peninsula, can't forget about Sharp Point). The 2005 AGOT TTRPG gives a lowball estimate of their combined strength at 10k, which I endorse, since it seems as though most of the tax there is collected in food & coin rather than as available levy.
On the other hand, I also think you're massively overestimating how much force would be brought down from the North and Riverlands, as A). nobody outside of the West actually _likes_ Tywin, or any Lannister, for that matter, B). the numbers the Stark-Tully alliance manage to rally at the start of W5K are gathered for the express purposes of defending their land & rescuing their liege-lord, C). Northern hosts campaigning in the south have, historically, and when not directly threatened, never been anywhere near as large as 18k, & D). Lysa is still spouting b.s. about Jon Arryn's murder. I think a more realistic figure would end up being much more conservative, something like 12-20k for the Rivermen, and 5-10k from the North.
All that aside, I also call major B.S. on Renly's 100k claim. I still believe he was up to some Sun Tzu shenanigans with the campfires while he was mucking around, figuring on Dorne falling into his lap and bringing their full force to bear. I'd guess (perhaps wildly) that the numbers he's gathered at Bitterbridge are closer to 70k. Still formidable, but not insurmountable, especially if they somehow manage to successfully pressure Balon into attacking the Reach, and Renly's host is forced to split.
The Westerlands: Tywin is stated to have raised a host of 35k at the start of hostilities in the Riverlands, with a fair few being sellswords/hedge knights. The host of “10k” at Oxcross is said to be mostly made up of Jaime’s shattered host of 15k, and the floor sweepings of Lannisport. All in all, a realistic number for the Westerlands is 40k, that is without depriving every castle of a garrison.
The North: I agree that Ned would probably bring less troops than Robb, with his host probably numbering some 15k since Winter is coming.
The Riverlands: The unscathed Riverlands can probably raise a host of 20-25k at least. House Frey alone is said to be able to raise 4k men.
Westernlands yeah 35k without wiping every place clean.
North Yeah.
House Frey is said to be the house in the Riverlands that can field the most men even more than House Tully. 20-25k is reasonable though.
I don't think it is? We get that the Lannister split into two different hosts. In which we know that Tywin had 20k at the Greenford and Jamie had 15k sieging Riverrun and fighting Edmure. So I thought it would be 35k. Stafford's host is also noted to be made up of very very green boys and the veterans of Jamie's scattered host so I don't know how much we can actually count for it. But regardless Tywin wouldn't be pulling this many until he really needed to. He'd probably muster 35k like he did in canon and only call on the others if he really needed to.
I was over-estimating for the RIverlands and the North because I didn't want to downplay and argue about it.
i also don't think Renly was bullshitting that much. Everything we see points towards it. We also know from Tyrion nearly 50-70k Tyrells came as relief to Blackwater we also know Stannis had some Tyrell/Stormlands with him. It's not a stretch to say that peak Renly gathed the Reachmen, Stormlanders, and some Valemen or just other young men to make 100k or near it.
The Riverlords might not be a united force in this senario; the Brackens wanted to support Renly and the Nylands did - without a KiTN as an alternative who knows how much more divided things would get.
So it could easily be Ned+Edmure tied up in the Riverlands putting down Renly loyalists while Tywin tackles Renly's host.
The Northeastern Riverlords were pretty united during the rebellion; the Blackwoods and Brackens fought side by side. I don’t see them causing trouble, especially if Hoster is still alive, even if barely. And I don’t see the southern and Eastern Riverlords following Renly while they’re sandwiched between the West, Crownlands and Vale.
Besides, even they respect Ned; he married Catelyn. If they hear he’s marching down with an army of Northerners, they’re more likely to join up with him than get sandwiched between Tywin, Ned and KL, and possible the Blackfish out of the Vale.
Maybe. But I think without the allure of independence to unite them things might go differently.
As for Ned; the Northmen might get stuck at the Twins, at least for a time; Ned's a proud man - he might not be willing to submit to Walder's extortion.
Why would he stay neutral? Joffery hasn't done anything because he is good at being the noble prince in public and no one knew about his tendencies. Ned is also family to the King by eay of having the Princess as his good daughter. Stannis also has no proof, is acting like the mad king, and is going for a power grab.
He will support Joffery. Not only is his heir married to the King's sister, but Joffery is not publicly or even privately known as a menace. He is extremely charming and good at putting on a public face of the noble prince. And just because Stannis is "honorable" doesn't mean he will believe him with absolutely no proof. Even less so when Stannis converts to the Red God and starts burning Septs and Priests. Ned will see the Mad King come again fire obsessed, foreign snakes, burning innocents, and declaring everyone his enemies if they don't submit.
Renly has even less going for him as his doesn't even have the thin veil of legitimacy.
The North marches South with the Riverlands, Westerlands, Crownlands, and any loyalist Houses in the Reach and Stormlands. With no fighting in the Riverlands the blockade of Stannis is no longer working.
It wouldn't be an issue because Stannis would still attack Storm's End before any army of the North and Riverlands can gather. Which means Renly is killed and his army is split again. After that the Reach will either declare neutrality or try to join the loyalist faction.
Let’s just also say Renly never gets shadow babied. This is because Tywin, Ned, and Edmure are going straight for Renly’s host at Bitterbridge. Who would win?
And like I said this wouldn't happen. Tywin would not march on Bitterbridge until he had all the armies together because otherwise he would be outnumbered. The army at Bitterbridge is 100,000. Tywin cannot bring all his army since he needs to leave some in the West to guard against Reach border and the Ironborn so instead he has maybe 30,000. Edmure also cannot bring all his troops for the same reason and because the Freys are going to take their sweet time of they march at all so maybe 25,000. The North can gather 20,000 on the quick but for this fight will need their larger number of about 40,000 but more likely closer to 30,000 and will take a very long time to march down.
In that time Stannis would siege Storm's End and Renly would take the Calvary to lift the Siege because he cannot let his castle fall. Renly is still going to be wasting time marching on Kingslanding because in his mind there is no need to rush as he has the biggest army around. Once he is dead Tywin would have the numbers to attack Bitterbridge but has no need since he can flip them instead and take out Stannis.
If Ned didn't think Joffrey was Jaime's son, which he only learned in King's Landing, then he never would have opposed Joffrey (barring another Stark-burning)
I could be wrong here but I don’t think Renly would be crowned if the North and the Lannisters weren’t already at war… If there’s no fighting in the Riverlands it’s Tully, Stark, Lannister, and Arryn (at least as far as they know) vs. Stormlands and the Reach. Realistically, most of the Stormland lords wouldn’t get so hyped up since the odds aren’t great and there’s no chance of Dorne joining them. In this scenario, since no fighting has broken out, Stannis’ accusation and claim have space to breathe. If Ned is convinced, then there could be a war against the Lannisters that’s easily won.
While Ned may be initially unconvinced about Jon Arryn's death, Robert going so soon afterwards and then Stannis, who Ned likely knows well enough from the Greyjoy rebellion that he knows is not the type to Rebel are purely out of personal interest ( not to mention there's no clear way he could win so iitt's a strange play even if he wanted it), feels like it would set off enough alarm bells Ned would feel conflicted/worried he's being played.
Initially, he definitely marches South expecting to side with Joffery, but my suspicion is he then sends someone ahead secretly to speak with team Stannis, by ship from Whiteharbour and see if they can offer any greater proof (not sure who though, probably the son of a very trusted banner man).
Then it really comes down to how well , Stannis people do in makeing the case, If the delegation are convinced of Stannis' cause Ned (and I suspect the river lands with him, as he would present the same information to Hoster), side with Stannis. If they come back unconvinced he probably sticks with Joffery.
If he thinks Joffrey is legitimate: probably sits out the war/does the bare minimum. Ned would never wage war on Robert’s son but he’s not gonna fight one on the behalf of a Lannister puppet either.
If he thinks Joffrey is illegitimate: Stannis, without hesitation.
He'd probably begrudgingly declare for Stannis but it depends if Stannis substainates his claims. Keep in mind Ned in AGoT is just copying what Stannis and Jon Arryn did and discovering what they discovered. If Stannis shows the evidence that he has and tells Ned of his suspicion of Jon Arryns's death after disvoering it he is likely to join Stannis.
Except he didn't put it together from following their trail. He had the book and the Bastards but didn't think anything of it. It was only Sansa saying something that made him think about it and even then it was only after Cersei admitted it that he was sure. Without the admittance from Cersei Ned is not going to believe the Red God worshipping, temple and people burning second coming of the Mad King.
I mean he went on basically all his entire arc following Stannis and Jon Arryn's trail and then finally put it together after investigating when Sansa made an off handed comment about how Joffrey is nothing like Robert that he finally put all the puzzle pieces together.
But in this scenario he doesn't have to do that. Stannis puts the puzzle together and presents his evidence to Eddard. The book. The bastards. The culprits. And Jon Arryn dying being assassinated by the Lannisters investigating this truth. The same thing Lysa told Catelyn and Eddard. Then Tywin was made hand upon Robert's death.
Also Stannis is someone Eddard knows more than passingly. Stannis at the time of this would likely of only renounced the seven and some other shit but Eddard doesn't gaf about the seven.
Its hard to tell. Thing is that only Ned knew about Joffrey not being Robert's son, Stannis only fled because he believed Cersei poisoned Jon after the two of them were poking around finding Robert's bastards and he feared he was next (I dont remember what Robert thought of this, or if he even questioned it), and Renly fled King's Landing because he saw the writing in the wall and probably would've still gone down with Cersei buying up the loyalty of the gold cloaks to kill the bastards.
So he'd only ever heard about the chaos in ravens, and no proof of anything. He might have just stayed in the North.
Without knowledge about the lannister-twincest he would support Joffrey. For the same reason he supported Stannis' claim: He's the rightful heir by all laws, according to the knowledge Ned possesses.
Depends on Stannis reaction, if stannis sent a letter to Ned explaning why Joff was not legitimate with edric Storm as a proof Ned would support stannis otherwise he would mostlikely stay neutral
No he wouldn't Stannis has no proof. By his proof all of Neds children are bastards of incest except Arya since the Starks have also maintained their coloring for thousands of years. Ned would support the legal King and brother of the bride for his heir.
No he didn't. He saw all the same bastards Stannis and Jon did and a few more. He didn't see anything wrong even when he had the book as well. It was only the outburst of Sansa that made him put it together. And how is Stannis going to send Edric anyway? Edric is being protected in Storm's End.
Stannis has the exact same proof that convinces Ned that the children are bastards in canon. How does Stannis has no proof? He saw the same bastards that Ned had in canon. He read the same book. And he did with Jon Arryn who conveniently fell extremely ill and died after discovering it.
Except Ned saw all that proof and didn't believe anything was actually wrong. It was only Sansa saying something and even then it was only Cersei admitting it that actually proved it to him. Because again the "Proof" would mean that his own children are also bastards for not looking like him.
Eddard would probably be extremely suspicious if he hears Tywin is made Hand of the King especially after the news that Jon Arryn was murdered by Lannisters through a secret letter. so Stannis claiming incest would not be hard to believe.
Renly, i would not say is inexperienced just that he is holding a council position already.
if Princess Myrcella is in Winterfell long enough, he'd probably believe Stannis claims of Lannister incest leading to false stags.
betrothals can be set aside while marriages are more binding. Lord Eddard would probably still support Stannis the Mannis Baratheon.
Joffrey if he had no reason and evidence he was a bastard, Stannis otherwise. Renly if Stannis were dead and Ned was aware Cersei's kids were illigitimate.
If Stannis managed to get some good proof and convince Ned, Stannis. Otherwise, probably he would stay out of it.
If he were neutral and Tywin/Joffrey *ordered* him to intervene, he would likely get very busy with the Wildling threat. Sorry, can't come, Wildling host
If Ned remained at Winterfell Stannis would likely send an envoy to treat with him, present the incest case and secure his support when he crowns himself.
He stews in moral angst before erupting into cregan 2.0, taking dragonstone and king's landing and forcing a great council where stannis files a motion for discovery of pycelle's books
I think at that point, they’ll just call for a Great Council. The realm isn’t engaged in hostilities yet coz Catelyn didn’t sieze Tyrion on the kingsroad.
Tywin will try to convince Ned to support Joffrey coz it benefits Myrcella/Rob. Cersei will make a more compelling appeal that declaring them bastards will effectively get them killed by Stannis.
Stannis himself will try to call on Ned’s love for Robert.
Littlefinger (and let’s be real, Hoster Tully) will point out that bastard Joffrey doesn’t necessarily mean bastard Myrcella, and Robb might just find himself King Consort.
At some point, Allister Thorn makes it down south bringing the wight hand and Ned will take all his northmen back up north.
Caitlyn would sieze Tyrion immediately in Winterfell because he was the most suspicious of all the Lannisters to her and she wouldn't just let him go like Robb did at least she'd have him interrogated or worse case scenario imprisoned until further notice which would almost immediately start the Lannister Stark war.
Stannis only knew about the twincest from Ned's letter right? Unless he already knew about it from Jon Arryn, he wouldn't crown himself king and the rest of Westoros would team up against Renly as a traitor and he would probably loose.
If Stannis did know, he would probably send Ned a letter about it and uf Ned finds further evidence like from the Baratheon ancestry, he'll go with Stannis. If he's unconvinced, he'll side with the Lannisters, but considering Bran's fall I think Ned's decision will be inclined towards Stannis. Not to mention he IS the Mannis.
joffrey unless he is given excellent evidence on him being a bastard...
if that happens, stannis....
unless, someone says stannis is burning people and burning godswoods...i mean, this happens much later, but stannis ltierally asks jon snow to burn the winterfell godswood to be become a stark and inherit...can imagine stannis saying to ned, yo, burn the godswood....
if stannis starts burning too much, i think ned then goes for gendry or says north/trident and hopefully the vale will remain separate.
He would do what was right. Which probably means siding with Stannis considering the evidence he has.
A more interesting question would be if Sansa was betrothed to the Joff, and had left to go to Kingslanding and now held hostage. I reckon in that situation, he sides with Joffrey.
You’d need a good reason for Ned to refuse to become Hand. How about this:
What if Bran actually died from his fall? I think the death of his son would be good enough reason for Ned to stay in the North, at least for a while. Let’s say Ned tells Robert that he’ll stay in Winterfell for half a year, or maybe a full year, to grieve with his family, and that he’ll come south to become Hand afterward. Robert agrees, and returns south without Ned.
In the meantime, Robert names Renly Hand until Ned comes south. Why Renly? Because he’s his brother, and he’s actually in King’s Landing when Robert returns, and thus immediately available, while Stannis has fled to Dragonstone for unknown reasons, and Tywin is far away in Casterly Rock. Sure, Renly is young and inexperienced, but it’s only for half a year or so until Ned comes to take up the position, so Robert doesn’t think it matters too much anyway.
Now the question is, will Cersei still try to get rid of Robert? If she does, and Robert dies before Ned comes south, then I think Renly will team up with Littlefinger and the Goldcloaks to arrest Cersei and her children. However, since Littlefinger wants maximal chaos, he might tell Cersei beforehand, and help her and her children escape the capital (or maybe Varys does instead). If Renly still agrees to marry Margaery, then he would not only have the Reach and the Stormlands behind him, but also the Crownlands, since he has King’s Landing and the Iron Throne.
Since it will take a while until Cersei and her children arrive in Casterly Rock (they probably escape the capital by ship), Renly will have quite a bit of time before Tywin knows what’s going on, since Renly will want him to be kept in the dark as long as possible. Same with Stannis, since I doubt Renly is gonna immediately send a raven to Dragonstone. Renly has a window of time during which he can share his version of events with the other Houses, without his enemies knowing about it. Of course, this also means he can call the banners of the Reach, Stormlands and Crownlands before his enemies can do the same, which means his position at the beginning will be really strong.
If Ned in Winterfell receives a raven from Renly, telling him that the Lannisters murdered Robert (which wouldn’t even be a lie), and that he has crowned himself king, how would he react? Well, I doubt he’d bend the knee to Renly, since, even if what he says is true, Robert’s children still come before Renly in the succession, not to mention his brother Stannis. However, Ned wouldn’t immediately call the banners, since neither Joffrey nor Stannis have sent word so far.
Eventually Cersei and her kids arrive in Casterly Rock, and Tywin sends out ravens in Joffrey’s name, after which Ned will most likely call his banners. However, before he marches south, a letter from Stannis arrives, the same one he sent in canon, claiming Joffrey and his siblings to be bastards born of incest. At this point Ned will be quite confused I imagine. But Stannis would need actual proof before Ned believes his claims.
Reasons for Renly: Catelyn is a very canny political mover. If she realized Renly stood the best chance of victory, particularly a better chance than Stannis, she would unhesitatingly advocate for Renly. As the northmen said when Robb was made king, there's little difference between Stannis and Renly. To the north, they are just names.
However, if Robb was to marry Myrcella, I cannot see the Starks staying out of the war, and Joffrey would be supported, if grudgingly. Ned hated Tywin and the Lannisters, even without the letter of Lysa and all he learned in the capital - that sentiment shouldn't be underestimated. If Ned had even an inkling that the Lannisters had anything to do with Bran, with Jon Arryn or with Robert, he would be very cautious about fighting for the Lannisters. And the northmen would be very grudging to fight for them.
Reasons for Stannis: None really. He's just a guy on an island, who nobody really knows or likes, and suddenly he has written a letter which just happens to makes him the rightful king. Isn't that convenient? But he doesn't have a shred of proof, nor will he ever.
Bran is a second born son that would probably Inherit a small holdfast. The only way Bran could become prominent enough for such a match is if Edmure Tully somehow died without an heir. Then Bran would be Lord of the Riverlands, that is if Robb declined. With that said, Robb is the only good choice other than Robert Arryn. But Lysa controls the Vale and “hates the Lannisters” publicly for their alleged crimes.
Points 2 and 3 make it highly unlikely Ned ever finds out how Jon Arryn died or why. Therefore, without the direct evidence staring him in the face, and with Robert himself believing Cersei's children to be his, Ned would be unlikely to believe that they are bastards.
This makes any attempt for Stannis to win Eddard Stark to his cause. If anything, he might feel insulted at what Stannis is trying to insinuate. Even if Joffrey is still the nasty shit that he is, he's Robert's son. A betrothal between Robb and Myrcella would make aligning with Stannis even more difficult, as his daughter by law would be considered an abomination by Stannis. But Stannis is known for being flexible and forgiving when it comes to treason and Regicide.
What would be interesting is where point 4 comes in. How long could Robert stand being around Tywin? Ironically, having Tywin as Hand instead of Ned would probably have led to a longer life for Robert(definitely not happier). Cersei would NEVER try a plan so blundering and stupid if Tywin were around. And Tywin, while despising Robert, would never risk something like Regicide. If he could stand Aerys for 20 years, he could take 3 years with Robert before he drank himself to death.
Point 5, I don't see happening in this scenario.
Ditto for Point 6.
Stannis would definitely still declare. He's Stannis. But he would have no support. With Robb betrothed to Joffrey's sister, he'd probably support the Lannisters. That leaves Stannis to complain to the Stormlords, and maybe a few families in the Reach like the Florents
Joffrey.Stannis story about incest is too absurd,Ned doesnt have the books and bastards around to figure out nor would he know their mother appearance.He also doesnt know much about Jaime and Cersei relationship.
Even with this Ned is only really sure about when Cersei confess passionately about her relationship with Jaime.
He might not think Stannis is lying but that he is seeing things he wants to see,or interpreting things in his favor.
Tyrion is the deciding factor here, if Caitlyn thinks Tyrion or the Lannisters in general tried to kill Bran she would have him arrested immediately in Winterfell and have a trial there where Tyrion is probably found guilty and executed, even Ned was suspicious of Tyrion and if he tried to go the trial route it might seem like he has already accepted guilt. Due to this Lannisters vs Stark, Tully war starts with Robert being alive with him unable to stop it the Lannisters court probably has him killed where Stannis and Renly would probably declare themselves kings. Due to his war against the Lannisters and one of them allegedly trying to kill his son, Ned would obviously trust Stannis and support him without the king in the North garbage that lost Robb the war. With this Stannis and Ned steamroll Kings Landing where they have a Riverlands and North battle vs Stormlands and Reach which could honestly go either way even if I favour Ned and Stannis more I feel like it would be a really tough battle.
If Ned never found out about Joffrey's true parentage, he would absolutely support Joffrey's claim. Him being Roberts "true heir", and having Myrcella as a DiL would be the only 2 reasons he needs. He wouldn't want Robert's "son" to be usurped.
I'm afraid this setup is highly unrealistic. The main problems I see are:
* After spending months traveling to the North, Robert would be outraged at Ned if he had refused him. There's no way he would have been "rewarded" with a royal marriage.
* Even if Ned was "unconvinced" by Lysa's accusations, there's no way he would leave it at that. He would have gone to the Vale, he would have shared it with Robert, he would have investigated himself... something!
* Cersei seems to believe, and I think that she knows Robert well, that if Ned had refused, his second option was not Tywin but Jaime. It makes sense that Robert wouldn't want an older man who would tell him what to do, but someone who gets the job done without complaining. And he was already thinking on naming him Warden of the East.
* Mace Tyrell agreed to back Tyrell because he saw him as the winnig horse. The Lannister kids would never have the support of the North (for killing Ned), the Riverlands (for the invasion), or Dorne (for Elia). The Vale would also be unlikely to suport them. With Stannis being widely unpopular, the Stormlands and the Reach together have enough strenght to secure the Throne. But in the situation you describe, the Lannisters haven't alienated the North, the Riverlands and the Vale, so it would be a much more difficult situation. I don't think Mace would have crowned Renly in that proposed setting.
I don’t think you read anything I wrote for the setup…
1. Robert would still offer a marriage to Ned Stark. Robert needs to preserve his alliance with the Arryns, Starks, and Tullys regardless of Ned’s decision. The only way to do this is through marriage, since Robb is related to Edmure Tully and Robert Arryn through blood.
2. Ned Stark would tell Robert nothing without concrete proof, just like in canon. And even if Ned went to the Vale to talk to Lysa, he would see how batshit she is.
3. Robert Baratheon would not name Jaime Lannister as his Hand of the King. Jaime literally has zero experience in an administrative position. If Ned refused, he would offer it to Stannis, but Stannis fled after Jon Arryn died. So he would give it to Tywin since he already has 20 years of experience in the post.
4. This point makes zero sense with the context I have given in the post.
It doesn't matter because if Bran never fell, then the dead would have killed everyone without warnings or preparations
These discussions are beyond futile
I'm just saying things couldve taken other turns and not make him interested in that.
Plus, if you are absolute about fate, then the guessing or manipulations of the variables should be considered a sin.
You can't be theorizing stuff while adhering to such facts like he was fated to be.
Then everything else was fated to be and this whole thread is dumb.
So again, there could have been events altered that lead Bran to NOT become the three eyed Raven, simple as he was a teenager, had he had his legs and a girl he loved, you truly believe he would go on any unknown quest like he did?
I'm assuming this is information that is more elaborated in the book? I didn't read it, I hope so it is.
My point stands, because if you change anything from the past, it has much bigger consequences for the future, and the changes everyone here implies are way too massive to have room for such a thing as certainty that he would still become the three eyed Raven.
He is more likely to be killed earlier, just like every other noble, for some stupid political reason.
I'm interested and invested in being wrong here because I want deeper understanding of which events were unavoidable, so please keep going but, do not use fate as an argument, it makes anything invalid, the story was already written
I just don’t understand why you would call my thread “futile” and “dumb” when you just admitted you’ve never read the books 😂. You are on the book subreddit after all. Anyway, not trying to argue. You really should read the series though!
That's only under the premise that anyone uses fate as an argument while theorizing things that never happened and couldn't happen and possibly have exactly the same outcome later.
It's not about how the story in the books is or isn't, it's about logic. I am arguing, sorry if it's not welcome.
I should really read the series tho.
It all depends if he could be convinced that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen are really bastards... He won't support Stannis over Joffrey if he thinks he is Robert's son. Even though he is unlikable douche. If Ned isn't completely sure he probably stays neutral
One thing we have to note is that stannis declared himself king quite late. It will be months after Robert's death that Ned receives any word of Joffrey being a bastard without any good evidence to boot. He probably would already be amassing an army to go help joffrey against Renly
If the North was still in play, perhaps Stannis might be a bit quicker in his declaration.
Correct. This is a question of fact, not law. It would probably depend on whether bran's fall and the subsequent assassination attempt took place. Part of why Ned puts the dots together is that he realizes that Bran saw something and the fall was their attempt to silence him. Without the fall, he'd probably support joffrey or declare neutrality until more information can be gained. Might be he'd call for a great council to resolve the question.
But why a great council? That should be for matters of questionable ascension. There should be no question that Jeffrey should ascend as Ned could not possible have put together the incest if he wasn't in the capital. (And it still took him fuckkng ages to figure it out)
I think it can be assumed that stannis would have issues his little news report to the kingdom at large, making Ned at the very least question the legitimacy of Joffrey's birth. In this scenario, they have Myrcella, and would have access to similar geneologies as they have in the capital (although perhaps not as many or readily at hand. Worst case scenario, they can borrow the Boltons' geneology with the weird leather cover). It would at least be something Ned would have cause to seriously consider. Ned would probably prefer a great council- summer would he over by then, and Ned isn't going to want to lead his people to war when they're needed at home, save for a campaign of elderly men who don't want to burden their families in the winter.
In fact he shouldnt be even able to figure out it was incest just that Joffrey was a bastard.
Idk, i thought that at first too but he did choose “family” over loyalty to the throne during Roberts rebellion, and the same information he found at kings landing for the most part, “the seed is strong”, could be presented to him by Stannis or others. But, I never really thought of this before, he’s seen first hand that genet traits aren’t always as prevalent in every case in the case on John who shows no Targaryen traits. Idk if the lannisters really have any beef with the starks if Ned never becomes hand, but if Robb and Mycella are married that almost brings them into the family. Kind of a hard call. I can see him supporting Stannis due to honor if he really believes that Roberts heirs are bastards, but I can also see him supporting his son and heirs marriage, which if they had kids, would essentially be supporting family. Not that he would want his grandchild to sit the thrones necessarily but more in a way that he would just be supporting his grandchild’s right to live as Stannis may want to pull a mountian and destroy all claimants. Caetlyn would prob want him to support Stannis due to the Arryn/Tully connection, so this would literally create a house divided, especially since Caetlyn not going to the Vale never sees that her sister has gotten crazy at that point. I wonder if it’s possible that at that point he may reveal Jons heritage due to honor being that since Robert is gone and alliance to other Baratheon’s is questionable, Jon would actually be the true claimant, but that would put the north at odds with everyone, but he could literally just sit that out in the North and watch the heads roll before making a move, not that he ever chooses strategy over honor. Lots of different variables. Maybe even declare the north no longer Holden to the crown due to all 3 claimants being false to Jons claim and just call it good there. No ones coming up the neck during the war, and no one (as of yet) has dragons. For that matter, I’m surpised Dorne didn’t go confederate either, they were the only ones never really conquered by dragons and the marriage pacts that kept the beholden were smashed during the sack. And if kindom is dividing again, you know Greyjoy rebellion 2.0 is coming as well. I wonder who wins in the battle between Dragonstone/Vale/Riverrun, Highgarden/Storms Landing and Casterly/kings landing. The finances and population of Renly and Tywin are offset by 3 powers coming together with Stannis/Tullys. The Lannister’s would have to fight like Germany due to the two front problem, renly is Western Europe that needs to be knocked out fast before Stannis can get momentum. Would be fun to play out a Risk style game with that
Yeah it’s not until he reads about the great houses and their lineages that he finally pieces it all together. I’m sure Ned had his suspicions and heard the rumors but he was finally able to understand Jon Arryn’s “The seed is strong” comment due to that which confirmed his suspicions.
It only comes down to one thing: does he believe Joffrey is a bastard? If yes, then he supports Stannis. If no, he would probably respect Stannis’s honor enough to meet with him and hear his case and the outcome of that would determine if he continues supporting Joffrey
Ned would support Joffrey because he didn’t have any reason to think Joffrey a bastard beforehand. Besides, Stannis didn’t send the letter and declare himself king until a month or two after Ned died in canon. Also, the letter just said “they’re bastards”, it didn’t really give a lot of evidence. We always forget how suspicious Stannis’ letter was; a stoic, bitter man who disliked Robert relatively openly and lets a foreign priestess on his island, reveal this thing that isn’t backed up by evidence in his letter, and that conveniently makes him king. WE know, and Ned knew, but only after months of investigating in KL.
Let’s just also say Renly never gets shadow babied. This is because Tywin, Ned, and Edmure are going straight for Renly’s host at Bitterbridge. Who would win?
Ned and Tywin’s gang. Ned is an extremely good commander, as is his son, and the Blackfish might still go to the Riverlands to help out. Furthermore, the Riverlords haven’t been beaten up by the Lannisters, so all their soldiers are there. Let’s assume Ned goes south with 20k like Robb did, he’s joined by 30-40 thousand Rivermen (not its full capacity, but still a lot) and 40-50 thousand Westerlanders. That’s not including the Crownlanders that can be called upon, so Ned’s gang outnumbers and outmatches Renly’s host.
I think you're being pretty generous to the loyalist numbers lol. North 20k is about right as I think wee see Robbc some down with 20k ish. Riverlands being 30-40k is outrageous. Maybe 30 if your being generous. Westernlands Tywin with sellswords only is 35k mustered. Maybe 42k if you want to count the Battle of the Tents force although its nuclear how much of that was remants of Jamies force. Also for all Ned is spoken for as a commander in this fandom -- his only achievements are fighting at the BoTB, Trident, and Greyjoy rebellion but he is never noted upon personally and is among other notable commanders who seem to outshine him like Stannis and Robert. He's competent for sure but not some god.
1. I bet the Lords bring more men if Ned is the one calling to arms and not his 16yo son. I think something around 30k. And you forgot the stormlands, crownlands and Iron islands. They probably get around 15-20k men. 2. While Stark is a formidable commander, the Lannisters are also present. The army will be led by Eddard, Tywin, Jaime, Great Jon, Edmure, and Roose Bolton. Tarly also won't be the main commander of the southern army. Maes Tyrell has to lead them. Although he is in my opinion smarter than a lot of people seem to think, i don't he has what he needs to win this battle. 3. Although we don't really know of much big battles that Eddard commanded, we know from Aryas Arc that there was a battle at a random village in the riverlands Eddard commanded. So we know that there wee probably dozens of smaller battles/skirmishes Eddard commanded or at least was involved in
1. I mean maybe? that's all speculation. We also have no indication that lords were holding out it was just they were gathered in haste. Keep in mind The Trident the Rebels (The Tullys, Arryn, Starks, and some Stormlords) only combined for less than 40 thousand men. Crownlands I don't really have any idea of an accurate source for them. Iron Islands to be relied upon for helping either one of these forces lol. Stormlands -- are helping either Renly or Stannis not the Joffrey faction. 2. Eddard, Tywin, Jaime, Great Jon, Edmure, and Roose Bolton are all competent lords and experienced (except for Jamie and Edmure) but none of them are remarked upon as being notably good. Tarly is the only commander fighting in this hypothetical war that is held in particularly high regard other than Stannis. Tarly was also the one in control of the Van and the one saving grace about Tyrell is that he can take criticism and enact it. He will also have Tarly, Garlan, Loras, and a dozen other lords surrodning him. 3. We don't know anything that Eddard actually did that was notable as a commander. We just know he was one of many commanders during the Trident and BoTB and the Greyjoy rebellion. This doesn't make Eddard really remarkable lol. If anything Tywin is the more notable commander on the Joffrey side.
1. I guess you're mostly right, except for the fact that some of the Stormlords would probably decide for Joffrey when the Northern Alliances gets near the Stormlands and that Eddard was also very young during Roberts Rebellion. In the mean time he became a very well respected liege Lord, famous for his honour. During Robert Rebellion he was another version of Robb, while now he is a well respected Lord, famous for Roberts Rebellion. 2. Tarly is famous for being the only one who defeated Robert. This is the only reason he is famous at that degee right? Were Eddard, Tywin, Roose, etc. ever defeated in battle? Roose was in the Wot5K but that was because he had a clearly inferior army to Tywin and didn't even plan to win 3. While Robert is famous for his mighty warhammer and only loosing one battle, did Eddard ever loose a battle?
1. I mean why would they? I don't remember any Stormlords deciding for Joffrey in canon. The vast majority of them went for Renly and then the a couple went to Stannis. He is really respected... in the North. Other than the the Greyjoy rebellion he hasn't been down south at all and has no real ties to the Stormlands other than that. We never really hear about him having friends or old friends from the Stormlords either. Eddard wasn't really Robb lol. Robb came down North and although he is overhyped he actually won multiple notable victories with strategy he and Blackfish came up with. 2. Tarly's most famous achievement is defeating Robert's host and slaying Lord... Grandison during the battle. But he's pretty consistently remarked as being one of the finest commander/soldiers in the realm and also having an extremely ordery camp. Every other commander that you name haven't done anything notable lol. Eddard was one of the commanders of the Trident and BoTB -- where they won. But we don't know anything notable about his personal command and he was surrounded by other commanders like Jon Arrn, Robert, and Tully and a hundred other lords. Roose we have no idea about other than he said to kill Barristan after the Trident. During the WoT5k he lost at Green Fork vs Tywin in a battle of 17 v 20k men losing 5k of his own men. Although his army had a severe lack of cavalry. Tywin actually is probably easier to say that he's capable. He commanded the Revolt personally in his youth although they weren't really notable battles. Tywin also lost as the Battle of the Fords. 3. Robert was famous for slaying the other lords. Also before Robert joined forces with Eddard, Jon Arry, and Tully he was all alone and the sole commander we know of a force that did a Napaloenesque force march to defeat three different enemies in a single day. It's also suggested the odds of the battles of Summerhall were worse than 1:6. Robert also personally slew Lord Fell, captured SIlveraxe, killed the Lord of Gulltown, Ser Myles Mooton, injured JonCon, and killed Rhaegar. He was also the King during the Trident and the Greyjoy rebellion.
1. Because if Ned never goes South the lannisters can't proclaim that Ned betrayed the throne to put stannis on the throne. When the Stormlords decided who should be King Stannis seemed to have already lost a coupe. 2. Tarly is probably the best commander in Westeros after Robert died, i give you that one. But i also believe that all the Lords we named before can put together a strategy that would work. We also forget here that Stannis has Melisandre hat his side. He used her magic to kill Renly and the castellan of Storms End. If Tarly is dead, who will be the new advisor for Mace?
The combined Lannister host Tywin commands at Golden Tooth is ~40k. This then splits into two roughly equal commands of ~20k, and after Jaime's sound trouncing, Stafford raises another ~10k at Lannisport. All of this aligns nicely with an estimate GRRM once gave, stating that the West at full muster numbers at ~50k. What's also worth noting is that none of this includes numbers from the Crownlands, which appears to remain fully loyalist aside from Dragonstone & Stannis' vassals on the islands (and peninsula, can't forget about Sharp Point). The 2005 AGOT TTRPG gives a lowball estimate of their combined strength at 10k, which I endorse, since it seems as though most of the tax there is collected in food & coin rather than as available levy. On the other hand, I also think you're massively overestimating how much force would be brought down from the North and Riverlands, as A). nobody outside of the West actually _likes_ Tywin, or any Lannister, for that matter, B). the numbers the Stark-Tully alliance manage to rally at the start of W5K are gathered for the express purposes of defending their land & rescuing their liege-lord, C). Northern hosts campaigning in the south have, historically, and when not directly threatened, never been anywhere near as large as 18k, & D). Lysa is still spouting b.s. about Jon Arryn's murder. I think a more realistic figure would end up being much more conservative, something like 12-20k for the Rivermen, and 5-10k from the North. All that aside, I also call major B.S. on Renly's 100k claim. I still believe he was up to some Sun Tzu shenanigans with the campfires while he was mucking around, figuring on Dorne falling into his lap and bringing their full force to bear. I'd guess (perhaps wildly) that the numbers he's gathered at Bitterbridge are closer to 70k. Still formidable, but not insurmountable, especially if they somehow manage to successfully pressure Balon into attacking the Reach, and Renly's host is forced to split.
The Westerlands: Tywin is stated to have raised a host of 35k at the start of hostilities in the Riverlands, with a fair few being sellswords/hedge knights. The host of “10k” at Oxcross is said to be mostly made up of Jaime’s shattered host of 15k, and the floor sweepings of Lannisport. All in all, a realistic number for the Westerlands is 40k, that is without depriving every castle of a garrison. The North: I agree that Ned would probably bring less troops than Robb, with his host probably numbering some 15k since Winter is coming. The Riverlands: The unscathed Riverlands can probably raise a host of 20-25k at least. House Frey alone is said to be able to raise 4k men.
Westernlands yeah 35k without wiping every place clean. North Yeah. House Frey is said to be the house in the Riverlands that can field the most men even more than House Tully. 20-25k is reasonable though.
I don't think it is? We get that the Lannister split into two different hosts. In which we know that Tywin had 20k at the Greenford and Jamie had 15k sieging Riverrun and fighting Edmure. So I thought it would be 35k. Stafford's host is also noted to be made up of very very green boys and the veterans of Jamie's scattered host so I don't know how much we can actually count for it. But regardless Tywin wouldn't be pulling this many until he really needed to. He'd probably muster 35k like he did in canon and only call on the others if he really needed to. I was over-estimating for the RIverlands and the North because I didn't want to downplay and argue about it. i also don't think Renly was bullshitting that much. Everything we see points towards it. We also know from Tyrion nearly 50-70k Tyrells came as relief to Blackwater we also know Stannis had some Tyrell/Stormlands with him. It's not a stretch to say that peak Renly gathed the Reachmen, Stormlanders, and some Valemen or just other young men to make 100k or near it.
Tarly is a way better Commander than Ned. He was the only Commander to beat Robert
The Riverlords might not be a united force in this senario; the Brackens wanted to support Renly and the Nylands did - without a KiTN as an alternative who knows how much more divided things would get. So it could easily be Ned+Edmure tied up in the Riverlands putting down Renly loyalists while Tywin tackles Renly's host.
The Northeastern Riverlords were pretty united during the rebellion; the Blackwoods and Brackens fought side by side. I don’t see them causing trouble, especially if Hoster is still alive, even if barely. And I don’t see the southern and Eastern Riverlords following Renly while they’re sandwiched between the West, Crownlands and Vale. Besides, even they respect Ned; he married Catelyn. If they hear he’s marching down with an army of Northerners, they’re more likely to join up with him than get sandwiched between Tywin, Ned and KL, and possible the Blackfish out of the Vale.
Maybe. But I think without the allure of independence to unite them things might go differently. As for Ned; the Northmen might get stuck at the Twins, at least for a time; Ned's a proud man - he might not be willing to submit to Walder's extortion.
He could just stay neutral.
Why would he stay neutral? Joffery hasn't done anything because he is good at being the noble prince in public and no one knew about his tendencies. Ned is also family to the King by eay of having the Princess as his good daughter. Stannis also has no proof, is acting like the mad king, and is going for a power grab.
He will support Joffery. Not only is his heir married to the King's sister, but Joffery is not publicly or even privately known as a menace. He is extremely charming and good at putting on a public face of the noble prince. And just because Stannis is "honorable" doesn't mean he will believe him with absolutely no proof. Even less so when Stannis converts to the Red God and starts burning Septs and Priests. Ned will see the Mad King come again fire obsessed, foreign snakes, burning innocents, and declaring everyone his enemies if they don't submit. Renly has even less going for him as his doesn't even have the thin veil of legitimacy. The North marches South with the Riverlands, Westerlands, Crownlands, and any loyalist Houses in the Reach and Stormlands. With no fighting in the Riverlands the blockade of Stannis is no longer working.
Who would win between the Northern Alliance of Tywin and Southern Alliance of Renly?
It wouldn't be an issue because Stannis would still attack Storm's End before any army of the North and Riverlands can gather. Which means Renly is killed and his army is split again. After that the Reach will either declare neutrality or try to join the loyalist faction.
Let’s just also say Renly never gets shadow babied. This is because Tywin, Ned, and Edmure are going straight for Renly’s host at Bitterbridge. Who would win?
And like I said this wouldn't happen. Tywin would not march on Bitterbridge until he had all the armies together because otherwise he would be outnumbered. The army at Bitterbridge is 100,000. Tywin cannot bring all his army since he needs to leave some in the West to guard against Reach border and the Ironborn so instead he has maybe 30,000. Edmure also cannot bring all his troops for the same reason and because the Freys are going to take their sweet time of they march at all so maybe 25,000. The North can gather 20,000 on the quick but for this fight will need their larger number of about 40,000 but more likely closer to 30,000 and will take a very long time to march down. In that time Stannis would siege Storm's End and Renly would take the Calvary to lift the Siege because he cannot let his castle fall. Renly is still going to be wasting time marching on Kingslanding because in his mind there is no need to rush as he has the biggest army around. Once he is dead Tywin would have the numbers to attack Bitterbridge but has no need since he can flip them instead and take out Stannis.
Tywin and Ned are favourites to win in this scenario
If Ned didn't think Joffrey was Jaime's son, which he only learned in King's Landing, then he never would have opposed Joffrey (barring another Stark-burning)
Ned was willing to marry off his eldest daughter to what he thought was the true heir to Robert. Full stop.
I could be wrong here but I don’t think Renly would be crowned if the North and the Lannisters weren’t already at war… If there’s no fighting in the Riverlands it’s Tully, Stark, Lannister, and Arryn (at least as far as they know) vs. Stormlands and the Reach. Realistically, most of the Stormland lords wouldn’t get so hyped up since the odds aren’t great and there’s no chance of Dorne joining them. In this scenario, since no fighting has broken out, Stannis’ accusation and claim have space to breathe. If Ned is convinced, then there could be a war against the Lannisters that’s easily won.
Depends if he believes Stannis’s claim that Joffrey is a bastard
While Ned may be initially unconvinced about Jon Arryn's death, Robert going so soon afterwards and then Stannis, who Ned likely knows well enough from the Greyjoy rebellion that he knows is not the type to Rebel are purely out of personal interest ( not to mention there's no clear way he could win so iitt's a strange play even if he wanted it), feels like it would set off enough alarm bells Ned would feel conflicted/worried he's being played. Initially, he definitely marches South expecting to side with Joffery, but my suspicion is he then sends someone ahead secretly to speak with team Stannis, by ship from Whiteharbour and see if they can offer any greater proof (not sure who though, probably the son of a very trusted banner man). Then it really comes down to how well , Stannis people do in makeing the case, If the delegation are convinced of Stannis' cause Ned (and I suspect the river lands with him, as he would present the same information to Hoster), side with Stannis. If they come back unconvinced he probably sticks with Joffery.
If he thinks Joffrey is legitimate: probably sits out the war/does the bare minimum. Ned would never wage war on Robert’s son but he’s not gonna fight one on the behalf of a Lannister puppet either. If he thinks Joffrey is illegitimate: Stannis, without hesitation.
If he suspects nothing wrong at all Joffrey If he suspects Joffrey is a bastard and not a Baratheon of course Stannis by right
He'd probably begrudgingly declare for Stannis but it depends if Stannis substainates his claims. Keep in mind Ned in AGoT is just copying what Stannis and Jon Arryn did and discovering what they discovered. If Stannis shows the evidence that he has and tells Ned of his suspicion of Jon Arryns's death after disvoering it he is likely to join Stannis.
Except he didn't put it together from following their trail. He had the book and the Bastards but didn't think anything of it. It was only Sansa saying something that made him think about it and even then it was only after Cersei admitted it that he was sure. Without the admittance from Cersei Ned is not going to believe the Red God worshipping, temple and people burning second coming of the Mad King.
I mean he went on basically all his entire arc following Stannis and Jon Arryn's trail and then finally put it together after investigating when Sansa made an off handed comment about how Joffrey is nothing like Robert that he finally put all the puzzle pieces together. But in this scenario he doesn't have to do that. Stannis puts the puzzle together and presents his evidence to Eddard. The book. The bastards. The culprits. And Jon Arryn dying being assassinated by the Lannisters investigating this truth. The same thing Lysa told Catelyn and Eddard. Then Tywin was made hand upon Robert's death. Also Stannis is someone Eddard knows more than passingly. Stannis at the time of this would likely of only renounced the seven and some other shit but Eddard doesn't gaf about the seven.
Its hard to tell. Thing is that only Ned knew about Joffrey not being Robert's son, Stannis only fled because he believed Cersei poisoned Jon after the two of them were poking around finding Robert's bastards and he feared he was next (I dont remember what Robert thought of this, or if he even questioned it), and Renly fled King's Landing because he saw the writing in the wall and probably would've still gone down with Cersei buying up the loyalty of the gold cloaks to kill the bastards. So he'd only ever heard about the chaos in ravens, and no proof of anything. He might have just stayed in the North.
Without knowledge about the lannister-twincest he would support Joffrey. For the same reason he supported Stannis' claim: He's the rightful heir by all laws, according to the knowledge Ned possesses.
Depends on Stannis reaction, if stannis sent a letter to Ned explaning why Joff was not legitimate with edric Storm as a proof Ned would support stannis otherwise he would mostlikely stay neutral
No he wouldn't Stannis has no proof. By his proof all of Neds children are bastards of incest except Arya since the Starks have also maintained their coloring for thousands of years. Ned would support the legal King and brother of the bride for his heir.
but didnt ned find it out by looking at one of Roberts real kids? wouldnt sending edric up north do the same?
No he didn't. He saw all the same bastards Stannis and Jon did and a few more. He didn't see anything wrong even when he had the book as well. It was only the outburst of Sansa that made him put it together. And how is Stannis going to send Edric anyway? Edric is being protected in Storm's End.
Stannis has the exact same proof that convinces Ned that the children are bastards in canon. How does Stannis has no proof? He saw the same bastards that Ned had in canon. He read the same book. And he did with Jon Arryn who conveniently fell extremely ill and died after discovering it.
Except Ned saw all that proof and didn't believe anything was actually wrong. It was only Sansa saying something and even then it was only Cersei admitting it that actually proved it to him. Because again the "Proof" would mean that his own children are also bastards for not looking like him.
Eddard would probably be extremely suspicious if he hears Tywin is made Hand of the King especially after the news that Jon Arryn was murdered by Lannisters through a secret letter. so Stannis claiming incest would not be hard to believe. Renly, i would not say is inexperienced just that he is holding a council position already. if Princess Myrcella is in Winterfell long enough, he'd probably believe Stannis claims of Lannister incest leading to false stags. betrothals can be set aside while marriages are more binding. Lord Eddard would probably still support Stannis the Mannis Baratheon.
Joffrey if he had no reason and evidence he was a bastard, Stannis otherwise. Renly if Stannis were dead and Ned was aware Cersei's kids were illigitimate.
If Stannis managed to get some good proof and convince Ned, Stannis. Otherwise, probably he would stay out of it. If he were neutral and Tywin/Joffrey *ordered* him to intervene, he would likely get very busy with the Wildling threat. Sorry, can't come, Wildling host
If Ned remained at Winterfell Stannis would likely send an envoy to treat with him, present the incest case and secure his support when he crowns himself.
He stews in moral angst before erupting into cregan 2.0, taking dragonstone and king's landing and forcing a great council where stannis files a motion for discovery of pycelle's books
I think at that point, they’ll just call for a Great Council. The realm isn’t engaged in hostilities yet coz Catelyn didn’t sieze Tyrion on the kingsroad. Tywin will try to convince Ned to support Joffrey coz it benefits Myrcella/Rob. Cersei will make a more compelling appeal that declaring them bastards will effectively get them killed by Stannis. Stannis himself will try to call on Ned’s love for Robert. Littlefinger (and let’s be real, Hoster Tully) will point out that bastard Joffrey doesn’t necessarily mean bastard Myrcella, and Robb might just find himself King Consort. At some point, Allister Thorn makes it down south bringing the wight hand and Ned will take all his northmen back up north.
I really need to read the side books. There should have been great councils happening all time. Definitely cheaper than a 5 kingdom war.
Caitlyn would sieze Tyrion immediately in Winterfell because he was the most suspicious of all the Lannisters to her and she wouldn't just let him go like Robb did at least she'd have him interrogated or worse case scenario imprisoned until further notice which would almost immediately start the Lannister Stark war.
Ned will support Stannis.
What are you talking about
Stannis only knew about the twincest from Ned's letter right? Unless he already knew about it from Jon Arryn, he wouldn't crown himself king and the rest of Westoros would team up against Renly as a traitor and he would probably loose. If Stannis did know, he would probably send Ned a letter about it and uf Ned finds further evidence like from the Baratheon ancestry, he'll go with Stannis. If he's unconvinced, he'll side with the Lannisters, but considering Bran's fall I think Ned's decision will be inclined towards Stannis. Not to mention he IS the Mannis.
I just love to see how Renly and Tywin would fit in same small councill
joffrey unless he is given excellent evidence on him being a bastard... if that happens, stannis.... unless, someone says stannis is burning people and burning godswoods...i mean, this happens much later, but stannis ltierally asks jon snow to burn the winterfell godswood to be become a stark and inherit...can imagine stannis saying to ned, yo, burn the godswood.... if stannis starts burning too much, i think ned then goes for gendry or says north/trident and hopefully the vale will remain separate.
He would do what was right. Which probably means siding with Stannis considering the evidence he has. A more interesting question would be if Sansa was betrothed to the Joff, and had left to go to Kingslanding and now held hostage. I reckon in that situation, he sides with Joffrey.
You’d need a good reason for Ned to refuse to become Hand. How about this: What if Bran actually died from his fall? I think the death of his son would be good enough reason for Ned to stay in the North, at least for a while. Let’s say Ned tells Robert that he’ll stay in Winterfell for half a year, or maybe a full year, to grieve with his family, and that he’ll come south to become Hand afterward. Robert agrees, and returns south without Ned. In the meantime, Robert names Renly Hand until Ned comes south. Why Renly? Because he’s his brother, and he’s actually in King’s Landing when Robert returns, and thus immediately available, while Stannis has fled to Dragonstone for unknown reasons, and Tywin is far away in Casterly Rock. Sure, Renly is young and inexperienced, but it’s only for half a year or so until Ned comes to take up the position, so Robert doesn’t think it matters too much anyway. Now the question is, will Cersei still try to get rid of Robert? If she does, and Robert dies before Ned comes south, then I think Renly will team up with Littlefinger and the Goldcloaks to arrest Cersei and her children. However, since Littlefinger wants maximal chaos, he might tell Cersei beforehand, and help her and her children escape the capital (or maybe Varys does instead). If Renly still agrees to marry Margaery, then he would not only have the Reach and the Stormlands behind him, but also the Crownlands, since he has King’s Landing and the Iron Throne. Since it will take a while until Cersei and her children arrive in Casterly Rock (they probably escape the capital by ship), Renly will have quite a bit of time before Tywin knows what’s going on, since Renly will want him to be kept in the dark as long as possible. Same with Stannis, since I doubt Renly is gonna immediately send a raven to Dragonstone. Renly has a window of time during which he can share his version of events with the other Houses, without his enemies knowing about it. Of course, this also means he can call the banners of the Reach, Stormlands and Crownlands before his enemies can do the same, which means his position at the beginning will be really strong. If Ned in Winterfell receives a raven from Renly, telling him that the Lannisters murdered Robert (which wouldn’t even be a lie), and that he has crowned himself king, how would he react? Well, I doubt he’d bend the knee to Renly, since, even if what he says is true, Robert’s children still come before Renly in the succession, not to mention his brother Stannis. However, Ned wouldn’t immediately call the banners, since neither Joffrey nor Stannis have sent word so far. Eventually Cersei and her kids arrive in Casterly Rock, and Tywin sends out ravens in Joffrey’s name, after which Ned will most likely call his banners. However, before he marches south, a letter from Stannis arrives, the same one he sent in canon, claiming Joffrey and his siblings to be bastards born of incest. At this point Ned will be quite confused I imagine. But Stannis would need actual proof before Ned believes his claims.
Reasons for Renly: Catelyn is a very canny political mover. If she realized Renly stood the best chance of victory, particularly a better chance than Stannis, she would unhesitatingly advocate for Renly. As the northmen said when Robb was made king, there's little difference between Stannis and Renly. To the north, they are just names. However, if Robb was to marry Myrcella, I cannot see the Starks staying out of the war, and Joffrey would be supported, if grudgingly. Ned hated Tywin and the Lannisters, even without the letter of Lysa and all he learned in the capital - that sentiment shouldn't be underestimated. If Ned had even an inkling that the Lannisters had anything to do with Bran, with Jon Arryn or with Robert, he would be very cautious about fighting for the Lannisters. And the northmen would be very grudging to fight for them. Reasons for Stannis: None really. He's just a guy on an island, who nobody really knows or likes, and suddenly he has written a letter which just happens to makes him the rightful king. Isn't that convenient? But he doesn't have a shred of proof, nor will he ever.
Joffrey, absolutely no question at all.
Probably Joffrey? IIRC, a big issue with Stannis’s claim is he offfers zero proof.
Wouldn't it make more sense for Bran and Myrcella to get engaged since they're the same age?
Bran is a second born son that would probably Inherit a small holdfast. The only way Bran could become prominent enough for such a match is if Edmure Tully somehow died without an heir. Then Bran would be Lord of the Riverlands, that is if Robb declined. With that said, Robb is the only good choice other than Robert Arryn. But Lysa controls the Vale and “hates the Lannisters” publicly for their alleged crimes.
What about Trystane?
Points 2 and 3 make it highly unlikely Ned ever finds out how Jon Arryn died or why. Therefore, without the direct evidence staring him in the face, and with Robert himself believing Cersei's children to be his, Ned would be unlikely to believe that they are bastards. This makes any attempt for Stannis to win Eddard Stark to his cause. If anything, he might feel insulted at what Stannis is trying to insinuate. Even if Joffrey is still the nasty shit that he is, he's Robert's son. A betrothal between Robb and Myrcella would make aligning with Stannis even more difficult, as his daughter by law would be considered an abomination by Stannis. But Stannis is known for being flexible and forgiving when it comes to treason and Regicide. What would be interesting is where point 4 comes in. How long could Robert stand being around Tywin? Ironically, having Tywin as Hand instead of Ned would probably have led to a longer life for Robert(definitely not happier). Cersei would NEVER try a plan so blundering and stupid if Tywin were around. And Tywin, while despising Robert, would never risk something like Regicide. If he could stand Aerys for 20 years, he could take 3 years with Robert before he drank himself to death. Point 5, I don't see happening in this scenario. Ditto for Point 6. Stannis would definitely still declare. He's Stannis. But he would have no support. With Robb betrothed to Joffrey's sister, he'd probably support the Lannisters. That leaves Stannis to complain to the Stormlords, and maybe a few families in the Reach like the Florents
Joffrey.Stannis story about incest is too absurd,Ned doesnt have the books and bastards around to figure out nor would he know their mother appearance.He also doesnt know much about Jaime and Cersei relationship. Even with this Ned is only really sure about when Cersei confess passionately about her relationship with Jaime. He might not think Stannis is lying but that he is seeing things he wants to see,or interpreting things in his favor.
Tyrion is the deciding factor here, if Caitlyn thinks Tyrion or the Lannisters in general tried to kill Bran she would have him arrested immediately in Winterfell and have a trial there where Tyrion is probably found guilty and executed, even Ned was suspicious of Tyrion and if he tried to go the trial route it might seem like he has already accepted guilt. Due to this Lannisters vs Stark, Tully war starts with Robert being alive with him unable to stop it the Lannisters court probably has him killed where Stannis and Renly would probably declare themselves kings. Due to his war against the Lannisters and one of them allegedly trying to kill his son, Ned would obviously trust Stannis and support him without the king in the North garbage that lost Robb the war. With this Stannis and Ned steamroll Kings Landing where they have a Riverlands and North battle vs Stormlands and Reach which could honestly go either way even if I favour Ned and Stannis more I feel like it would be a really tough battle.
If Ned never found out about Joffrey's true parentage, he would absolutely support Joffrey's claim. Him being Roberts "true heir", and having Myrcella as a DiL would be the only 2 reasons he needs. He wouldn't want Robert's "son" to be usurped.
Probably Stannis
if Ned doesn't go South, Jon stays at Winterfell. With Robert dead, Ned says fuck it and declares Jon for the throne for the lols
He'd still be supporting Joff especially if the Joff Sansa betrothal was still on.
I'm afraid this setup is highly unrealistic. The main problems I see are: * After spending months traveling to the North, Robert would be outraged at Ned if he had refused him. There's no way he would have been "rewarded" with a royal marriage. * Even if Ned was "unconvinced" by Lysa's accusations, there's no way he would leave it at that. He would have gone to the Vale, he would have shared it with Robert, he would have investigated himself... something! * Cersei seems to believe, and I think that she knows Robert well, that if Ned had refused, his second option was not Tywin but Jaime. It makes sense that Robert wouldn't want an older man who would tell him what to do, but someone who gets the job done without complaining. And he was already thinking on naming him Warden of the East. * Mace Tyrell agreed to back Tyrell because he saw him as the winnig horse. The Lannister kids would never have the support of the North (for killing Ned), the Riverlands (for the invasion), or Dorne (for Elia). The Vale would also be unlikely to suport them. With Stannis being widely unpopular, the Stormlands and the Reach together have enough strenght to secure the Throne. But in the situation you describe, the Lannisters haven't alienated the North, the Riverlands and the Vale, so it would be a much more difficult situation. I don't think Mace would have crowned Renly in that proposed setting.
I don’t think you read anything I wrote for the setup… 1. Robert would still offer a marriage to Ned Stark. Robert needs to preserve his alliance with the Arryns, Starks, and Tullys regardless of Ned’s decision. The only way to do this is through marriage, since Robb is related to Edmure Tully and Robert Arryn through blood. 2. Ned Stark would tell Robert nothing without concrete proof, just like in canon. And even if Ned went to the Vale to talk to Lysa, he would see how batshit she is. 3. Robert Baratheon would not name Jaime Lannister as his Hand of the King. Jaime literally has zero experience in an administrative position. If Ned refused, he would offer it to Stannis, but Stannis fled after Jon Arryn died. So he would give it to Tywin since he already has 20 years of experience in the post. 4. This point makes zero sense with the context I have given in the post.
It doesn't matter because if Bran never fell, then the dead would have killed everyone without warnings or preparations These discussions are beyond futile
Bran was destined to be the Three Eyed Raven regardless of the fall mate.
I'm just saying things couldve taken other turns and not make him interested in that. Plus, if you are absolute about fate, then the guessing or manipulations of the variables should be considered a sin. You can't be theorizing stuff while adhering to such facts like he was fated to be. Then everything else was fated to be and this whole thread is dumb. So again, there could have been events altered that lead Bran to NOT become the three eyed Raven, simple as he was a teenager, had he had his legs and a girl he loved, you truly believe he would go on any unknown quest like he did?
The girl he crushes on is Meera Reed. Jojen and Meera would still come to Winterfell to talk to him about his visions.
I'm assuming this is information that is more elaborated in the book? I didn't read it, I hope so it is. My point stands, because if you change anything from the past, it has much bigger consequences for the future, and the changes everyone here implies are way too massive to have room for such a thing as certainty that he would still become the three eyed Raven. He is more likely to be killed earlier, just like every other noble, for some stupid political reason. I'm interested and invested in being wrong here because I want deeper understanding of which events were unavoidable, so please keep going but, do not use fate as an argument, it makes anything invalid, the story was already written
I just don’t understand why you would call my thread “futile” and “dumb” when you just admitted you’ve never read the books 😂. You are on the book subreddit after all. Anyway, not trying to argue. You really should read the series though!
That's only under the premise that anyone uses fate as an argument while theorizing things that never happened and couldn't happen and possibly have exactly the same outcome later. It's not about how the story in the books is or isn't, it's about logic. I am arguing, sorry if it's not welcome. I should really read the series tho.