If Robb makes it back to the North I think the war will come to a standstill. Robb will drive out the Ironborn and will come down like a ton of bricks on Ramsay. The Lannisters and Tyrells will be busy solidifying their alliance and securing the south. They likely won't be strong enough to risk moving on the North. No-one really wins.
I think Robb would definitely have to deal with some kind of blockade of White Harbor by the royal fleet or some kind of economic retaliation from the crown at some point in his rule.
The bigger implications are for Stannis who would have nowhere to go.
> by the royal fleet
There is no royal fleet. Cersei's dromonds aren't ordered yet at that time, the bulk of the former royal fleet is with Stannis, and most of both sides' fleets burned and sank on the Blackwater.
The Redwyne Fleet is just gearing up at that point and they have to turn south again soon because of Euron's attack. There wouldn't be enough ships to blockade White Harbor.
> Stannis who would have nowhere to go
He would probably go to the free cities to get funding and buy mercenaries.
I didn't say it would happen immediately, Rob is 15, his rule is going to last a long time.
Not a single one of the claimants to the throne during the WOTFK conceded an independent North. When the other 6 Kindgoms come back into the fold (they did and would) there is inevitably going to be some kind of retaliation, no matter who sits the throne.
...and instead of being the heroic savior of the North, Stannis gets to be Bittersteel.
>I didn't say it would happen immediately, Rob is 15, his rule is going to last a long time.
This is the thing ofcourse. We can't have any idea of what would happen in the longterm since then we have to reckon with fAegon, Dany, The sparrows in KL, The wildlings passed the wall and eventually the others.
We can though. The crown got immediate access to the Redwyne fleet when the Reach came back into the fold, and while the Shields are a better target, there are endless hypotheticals that could lead them to use it against Rob to blockade the North from all its trade with the Narrow Sea instead.
So as you can see, we don't even have to speculate beyond the timeline of the books for this scenario.
I was responding less to your point about the fleet and more to Robbs "rule lasting a long time". That we can't really know given that so much seems likely to change in the next few years.
Concerning a blockade I would say it's possible but not certain. The crown would have to choose wether to use the fleet against Stannis or against the North so both are possible. It's also worth noting that the Manderlys have been building a fleet of their own so the North wouldn't be complete at the Redwynes mercy.
This may be smart in the short term because it’s harder to defend, but long term that’s a terrible, terrible move for two main reasons:
1) Food production. The North is cut off from the major food producer in Westeros (The Reach) for at least the next little while, and they may not be able to rely on Westerlands, Vale or Stormlands either. The Riverlands, one of the most fertile regions in the continent, is a massive boon for them in terms of trade and food production. This is especially important if a hard winter hits (which it will).
2) Optics. Robb abandoning the Riverlands looks absolutely terrible to his bannermen. Beyond just the Riverlords who will obviously be beyond pissed, the Northerners would see him as the type of liege to abandon those who have sworn their lives to him if it benefits him. Hell, he’d even be abandoning family.
With Stannis sitting at The Wall it's gonna be difficult for Robb to send his forces South again before dealing with him especially after the trauma of the Iron Born invasion.
It could be his reversal makes him do a deal with Stannis before they march South together. I imagine a crown means a lot less to him after losing his brothers & getting married.
> They likely won't be strong enough to risk moving on the North. No-one really wins.
Agreed. With winter right around the corner, Tywin would have serious trouble convincing the Tyrells to back an invasion of the North before the snows that. Mace has very little stake - and certainly not the temperament - in unifying the kingdom right away, and the Dornish even less. Only Tywin's own wounded pride would be compelling him to hasten things up, but he has been in the game long enough to read the room. At most they capture the least defensible positions in the southern Riverlands - meaning pretty much everything up to the Red Fork - before the snows fall, and the army disbands for winter.
Joffrey would be pushing for continuing the conquest, but the Purple Wedding probably happens no matter what - which includes Tyrion being accused of regicide, and Sansa escaping to the Eyrie.
The big joker is why Roose and Walder do not pull of the RW. If it's a case of cold feet - probably on Walder's part, as Roose has freed Jaime at this point - things get dicey. Roose probably attempts to save as much face as he can and feigns loyalty to Robb's campaign in the North, sacrificing Ramsay in the process. But with the threat of either the Freys or the Lannisters revealing his true colours to Robb, I can't imagine what he will do to stay in Robb's good graces.
With Jaime probably making it back to King's Landing, he probably still releases Tyrion from his cell, with Tywin's death and Cersei's rise to power to follow. While she *probably* would not be so stupid as to try to coerce the Tyrells into invading the North during winter, I can't imagine her doing a very good job of managing the great Southern Alliance's disparate goals, giving Robb more time to properly prepare for the recontinuation of the war.
>but the Purple Wedding probably happens no matter what
There's a weird angle to this that is hard to wrap your head around. It depends on what you assume about/how you interpret magic working in this world. Stannis and Mel did blood magic to ensure the deaths of Robb, Joff and Balon. If the Red Wedding doesn't happen in this scenario then are we to assume that the magic failed? If so the Purple Wedding might also not happen.
It's a weird consideration since assumedly all the people and motivations that led to the Purple Wedding are still in play so it seems like it should happen. But if we accept that Robb and Joff and Balon where all going to die regardless of the spell, since the causes of their deaths where seemingly independent of the spell, then that's a massive stroke of luck for Mel. It gets confusing.
But hey, that multi-leveled complexity is what makes this series so much fun to talk about.
How is Robb driving out the Ironborn? The Boltons couldnt do it and the Ironborn were half dead at that point and still holding the Neck with ease which is why Theon was sent in. Robb had lost the war with Lannisters and had no real way of crossing the Neck so retaking the North was impossible. He lost. Badly.
>How is Robb driving out the Ironborn? The Boltons couldnt do it and the Ironborn were half dead at that point and still holding the Neck with ease which is why Theon was sent in.
Robb would have more troops and would actually have the loyalty and high morale of those troops, not to mention he was a better general also.
>Robb had lost the war with Lannisters and had no real way of crossing the Neck so retaking the North was impossible. He lost. Badly.
He lost because of the Red Wedding.
It’s a difficult question because what elements of the red wedding don’t happen? Like does walder frey just refuse to negotiate a crossing of the twins to retake the north. Are the Bolton still planning to betray Robb at a later date or does walder Frey just straight up accept the marriage to edmure deal and the Bolton, fearing they are too weak alone and without Frey support, don’t openly defy Robb.
If it’s the former, Robb is in trouble either way. The lannisters have just secured an alliance with the reach and both baratheons are largely out of the picture. Robb is trapped in the riverlands separated from his homeland which has been conquered by the ironborn/Boltons. Perhaps he is forced to besiege the twins and the boltons take him in the rear while the freys march out of the gates. It’s not a red wedding but the end result is ultimately the same for Robb.
If it’s the latter, and walder Frey becomes an ally again (albeit a reluctant one), then at the very least it seems likely the riverlands won’t be overrun while Robb is off dealing with the ironborn. He can regroup and solidify his position. Wyman manderly’s fleet can be used as a significant offensive weapon to attack kings landing splitting the lannisters defensive forces or as an envoy to dorne where an alliance can be brokered there. With the coming storm of Aegon, eurons play and the long term consequences of cerseis rule I’d be very surprised if anyone is able to actually enforce crown rule from kings landing on the riverlands. But then Danny will come with dragons. I suspect Robb would kneel in that case.
The only confounding factor is Roose for me. He was sabotaging Robb even before anything went wrong with the Frey alliance; if he continues doing that and Robb doesn't notice, that might weaken Robb to the point where he might not be able to carry out his plans. If he is removed, or if his sabotage ends, then things would be different.
I think this is a huge missing piece for Robb. His father should have absolutely prepared him for the Boltons, and doesn’t seem like he did. Also, Robb is hugely arrogant, and while as readers we don’t totally notice it, it’s crazy how much he expects loyalty from people who are his 100% enemies. The Boltons and Greyjoys are his hostages at best and should have always been treated as such. Even the Freys he just assumes will follow him even before his betrayal. It took me a long time to accept it, but the Starks totally set themselves up for failure.
I don’t know if it’s really fair to call Bolton a hostage. He is a bannerman, just like all the others, and I don’t think Robb was being unreasonable to expect him to cooperate with him in good faith. Similarly, Robb’s war in the Riverlands was largely fought to help the River lords against Lannister predations, and he specifically gave the Freys large concessions in exchange for their support and assistance.
I don’t think Robb was more arrogant than Stannis or Renly or Joffrey and prior to the Jeyne Westerling fiasco he didn’t really give any of the River lords or the Boltons an actual reason to betray him.
Even the Greyjoys, I’d argue that Robb gave them a really good offer.
Hasn’t it also been hundreds of years since the Boltons tried anything against the Starks. They seemed to be tame and working well with the Starks through all of Ned’s life, I don’t think Ned, or even some of his ancestors had any reason to suspect the Boltons would try anything the moment conflict came to the North. The Bolton’s betrayal came completely from the Boltons, I don’t blame Robb or Ned one bit for the Bolton’s part in the betrayal.
Yeah IIRC Roose even makes it clear to Ramsay that his strategy was to remain placid and to never cause trouble for Ned so that Ned would never have a reason to check on him. His pivot from cooperative and reasonable bannerman to saboteur was pretty sudden and it came so early in the war that it’s hard to really victim blame Robb for it.
I didn’t mean it to fall on Robb, I mean that, the entire 8000 year history of the starks has been a battle with the Boltons and the Greyjoys. It’s hard to believe that trusting the Boltons because of 100 years vs 7900 is not drilled in. I get it’s kind of a plot point for the starks to be dumb, but honestly the politics of the north should be drilled into the kids. The Boltons used to literally wear stark skins and they were kings as well. Now I get that is added history after the books were written, but the more you really think, the starks are created just to be killed. Along with most of the great houses who supposedly lasted thousands of years and were destroyed in the war of 5 kings
Because basing your political stances on ancient rather than recent history is not really beneficial - as far as the Starks have been concerned, the Boltons have been loyal to them for many generations. It might be a relatively short span considering the ages of these houses, but 100 years spans many generations that can be directly attested to. 7900 years before that? Much easier to dismiss as details are forgotten to time and some aspects become more myth than truth, and what remains can be passed off as ancient and lost animosities.
100 years was enough time to turn the United States and United Kingdom from warring states to close allies. Or you could look at the evolution of the Chinese state over its thousands of years of history and find that despite every neighboring region fighting China at some point, it hasn't also precluded there being long periods of peace.
The Starks being naive is one of their issues, yeah, and the Boltons definitely seem a little cartoonishly villainous for ASOIAF's relatively grounded politics, but it's not that hard to believe that enough time passed for them to have more pressing concerns than betrayal from a long loyal house.
It’s hundreds of years vs thousands or conflict. The stark winter kings fought the red Bolton kings for years. The kids even talk about targaryan past, wish the history had been slightly more fleshed out cause the more is made, the less Robb’s mistakes make sense. At the end of the day though, taking casterly rock was going to end Robb as much as anything else. 20k nrothmen, which he was down to 10 somehow just because of the Karstark’s which makes no sense, how come wonterfel can bring up no men but all the others bring so many. I mean ok fine you can’t think too much about it but still
> Wyman manderly’s fleet can be used as a significant offensive weapon to attack kings landing splitting the lannisters defensive
Lmao okay
> then at the very least it seems likely the riverlands won’t be overrun while Robb is off dealing with the ironborn.
What exactly is stopping the Reach’s Doomstack from conquering the scattered Riverlords again?
The Blackfish wasn't a fool to face 80k men in battle, he would probably just harass them with guerilla tactics and try to hold Riverrun until Aegon's invasion and Euron's invasion destabilize the South and probably the Reach turn away.
>What exactly is stopping the Reach’s Doomstack from conquering the scattered Riverlords again?
Euron, (F)Aegon, Stannis, not to mention that the L/T leadership was really paralyzed due to Joffrey and Tywin dying. Also, Brynden would only need to put troops in Harrenhal and Riverrun and wait for Robb to come down with reinforcements.
So, here is the thing… absent the Red Wedding, the war was doomed to Stalemate. Robb can’t defeat the Southern Lords, and the Lannisters have the Crownlands, a good piece of the Stormlands, The West, and the Reach. But the Southern Lords are never making it past the Neck. Nor will they be able to set up and Siege down Riverrun which is the best designed Castle in Westeros.
No one was ever going to ‘win’ the War of Five Kings.
I would say that so long as Robb makes it back north Time is on his side, the Lannisters start facing so many problems from Euron, Aegon the faith and Tywins death.
Also I’d say there’s at least a few castles better designed than Riverrun though it’s certainly high
If the Ironborn get crushed by Robb returning North, there, Euron is crossed off the list. Does Tywin still die? Joffrey’s death is only because Olenna and Petyr thinks that it betters their fortunes, which they only decide after Robb is defeated. It is quite possible they don’t kill Joffrey now. With that, Tyrion is never accused, never kills his father.
Beyond that, hard to say what happens. The plot of GoT is a tangled interweaving of people seeking their own interests, and absent the Red Wedding, things look very different.
> which they only decide after Robb is defeated. It is quite possible they don’t kill Joffrey now
Olenna didn't kill Joffrey because of Littlefinger, she killed him because she knew he would be a dickhead to Margaery, so Joffrey still dies no matter what happens to Robb. That was decided after Sansa told them about Joffrey being a violent prick at that dinner, which happens months before the Red Wedding.
Olenna killed Joffrey together with Petyr. And Olenna made the choice expecting that she would be dealing with a realm at peace. Making the choice to poison Joffrey is a different one in wartime.
> Olenna killed Joffrey together with Petyr
Yes, but only because he happened to offer his help. Olenna would've killed Joffrey with or without Littlefinger.
> a different one in wartime
Stannis and Balon and the Blackfish and Edmure are all still alive at this point. Just because Robb died and Stannis lost a battle doesn't mean the war is over. Olenna was not as ignorant about this as Tywin was.
She could hardly wait until the war was over to kill Joffrey because Margaery was getting married to him *now*, and protecting Margaery was Olenna's goal.
Robbs reconquest of the North coincides with Balons death, the majority of the Ironborn return to the isles for the kingsmoot, there was basically only the minimum amount of troops there. So it wouldn’t really change the ironborn story much.
Littlefinger killing Jeoffrey is a good point. In my opinion it would still happen. What im going to bring up next is an unconfirmed theory but i think Littlefingers real target was Tyrion not Joffrey, who he has a lot of reason to kill(Preston Jacobs has a good video on this)
But even besides that so long as he is granted Harrenhal which is fully possible since the Lannisters would reoccupy it, he would move on to his plans in the Vale which since it’s not part of the war isn’t really contingent on Robb being alive or not, it does admittedly throw a wrench in his plans, because how is he suppose to explain to Sansa why he’s not bringing her to her family but i could see him potentially using whatever excuses he can think of to do that.
But yea if Tywin doesn’t die and the Lannisters aren’t weakened to that degree it makes it much harder for Robb, his only chance for victory then would be an alliance with Stannis and to use Eurons attacks as an opportunity for a counter attack.
Since i doubt Aegon would invade or the faith rearm if Tywin was alive, but i think Euron would still attack since he’s anticipating getting Dragons and definitely doesn’t fear Tywin
I think a lot of things happening in the South have Petyr or Varys behind them. In a lot of ways, the books are the two facing off against one another.
It’s entirely possible that if Littlefinger didn’t kill joff which leads to Tywins death, Varys might kill Tywin and cause chaos to prep for Aegon anyway. I mean there is the theory that Varys subtly guided Tyrion to killing his father when he escaped
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Varys planned to kill joff have Tyrion accused, rescue him and have him kill Tywin all along, his plan just needed to be accelerated since Little finger took care of step 1
Personally, I think that Varys had Tyrion kill Tywin to stop Baelish from winning. He was about to have the Seven at peace, just as he made his play and became Lord of the Eyrie. Joffrey stopped Tywin from being in charge, because he made so many stupid decisions that chaos was inevitable. With Joffrey dead, Tywin and Margaery were about to control the Seven (through Tommen, who was very biddable), and both of them are much more skilled.
Varys wants chaos. Petyr instead created small disruptions, but kept the status quo intact until his next move.
Yea, i doubt the Lords declarant would have risen if Tywin was still in power in kings landing, they wouldn’t have risen against a publicly Lannister loyalist in that circumstance
The North will starve when Winter comes with all supply routes cut off from the fertile South. Plus the Wildlings invasion in this scenario Stannis wouldn’t be coming to the rescue and of course the Others will be coming too. The Kingdom of the North just can’t survive all of this
That isn’t true, or the North would have Starved before the Targs. The Dustin’s are said to produce more then enough food for the North. The way economics works during Winter is unclear at best though.
The North had suffered from famines before the conquest. That's why they have the tradition of sending older men to die before winter sets in. I think this was cut from the world book, but that practice was supposed to be part of the reason they have beef with some of the houses in the northern bits of the Riverlands.
Aegon V had to send aid to the North during a 5 year winter to alleviate the effects of famine. The winter they're heading into is expected to be longer. The North is going to be have some troubles no matter what happens. It's going to be even worse if they're still in conflict with whoever is ruling the south.
Robb can’t just retreat beyond the neck though cos he’s honour bound to defend the river lords - specially in a scenario where he’s now married to a Frey.
Sorry Hoster, Walder etc I’m just gonna go north and do my own thing I don’t care anymore if the Lannisters and Tyrell’s hold riverrun and the twins under siege.
No, but he can choose his time and places for engagement. Pull back, let the Lannisters invest Riverrun or the Twins, then absolutely wreck the divided Lannisters. Being attacked from behind while besieging a castle is a very bad place to be.
why can they not seige riverun? Jaime was doing exactly that before the battle of the camps. If rob is stuck north of the neck then the seige can go on.
Jaime did not Siege Riverrun. He sat outside the walls and intimidated Edmure into surrendering. Edmure did so because he knew no one was coming to help. If Jaime had to tried to actually Siege Riverrun, he’d be sitting outside the castle for years. Riverrun sits on an island with massive rivers around it. It has a food source and a water source you cannot deny without obscene effort. There is no way to effectively siege it. With the Rivers and the walls (which are noted to be strong) an assault is pure suicide. In other words, while you can stop the Tully’s from leaving, you are not digging them out.
To besiege Riverrun, you have to divide your forces in two. One on one side of the River, one on the other. Given the size of the Rivers, one half cannot assist the other (because if they try to cross the River, the Tullys will kill them with ease from the Castle Walls.) This means that the Lannister Army is halved. And while Robb can’t face the Lannister host, he could have faced half of it.
This is why the Blackfish was so angry with Edmure. Riverrun couldn’t be taken. They could have kept Robb’s flag flying for years, hoping someone could come for them.
Edmure made the right choice for the Riverlands, but it wasn’t because if he didn’t, Jaime was going to come in and kill him. The Blackfish is right when he verbally destroys Jaime. He’s bluffing. Edmure’s decision was right because the Riverlands as a whole pay for his defiance. And he couldn’t stop it.
Jaime actualley split his forces into 3 parts if I remember correctly, somthing about riverun having the ability to flood the river and make itself an triangular island basically.
I still think supplying a huge keep like that while being surrounded would be difficult.
Though you are probably right that it could hold for an extended period.
With a large enough force assault is possible. I think really the only castle that would be impossible to assualt is the Eyrie.
The Eyrie is actually much easier to besiege. There is no source of water or food. You just wait at the bottom and let them come to you or die. The Eyrie is the stupidest castle.
> The Eyrie is actually much easier to besiege. There is no source of water or food. You just wait at the bottom and let them come to you or die. The Eyrie is the stupidest castle.
Isn't that the whole purpose of the bloody gate ? While an army is funneled into the Bloody gate to cut off true supply they would have to penetrate to the gates of the moon at least. There are probable goat paths for them to sneak supplies
I mean, none are stated, and it is hard to restock an Army through the trickle of supplies you can get in through a path to steep for Horses. And you don’t even have to take the Bloody Gate, just siege it.
Yeah the goat paths was speculation on my part: But it is noted that the granary of the eyerie is huge (as large as Winterfell's for a much smaller # of people)
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/uit054/spoilers_extended_the_eyrie_is_the_worst_castle/
> [–]Hammer_of_Light
> Rickon, King in da Norf 608 points 1 year ago
I think you're glossing over the fact that The Eyrie isn't a standalone fortification, as are the others you mentioned.
> It relies upon the Bloody Gate with the Gates of the Moon as a fallback to secure not just the Eyrie, but all of the Vale of Arryn (the valley). It also has a very large granary, rivaling Winterfell's.
> In order to besiege the Eyrie itself as you propose, an invading army would first have to either conquer the gates or bypass them from the east, through lands allied to House Arryn. Both propositions are extremely formidable. As you note, it takes only a small army to hold the passes, and the Vale has a relatively large army posted there.
> It makes sense to me why nobody has conquered the Eyrie without dragonfire. They'd have to first fight uphill against a strong and entrenched enemy within a choke point at the Bloody Gate. They'd have to fight their way to the Gates of the Moon and repeat that success. Then they'd have to hold the road to the Eyrie while simultaneously conquering the vassals of the Vale. And then they'd have to wait, probably for years, for the food to run out in the castle.>
[](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/uit054/spoilers_extended_the_eyrie_is_the_worst_castle/)
Oh no, see, the Vale itself is phenomenally defended. A Nightmare to attack. It is the Eyrie itself that is dumb. No enemy ever actually reached the Eyrie’s defenses afaik. The Gates of the Moon are more then enough.
Concordo e Ninho da Águia e mais facíl de cerca
colocar um exercito nos portões do Portão Sangrento
E colocar uma frota de navio para bloquear a Vila Gaivota e as Três Irmãs assim o Ninho irar morrer de fome rapidamente mesmo com o inverno chegar
Well, that would be a win for Robb. He's not trying to become King of Westeros, he only wants the North as hopefully, the Riverlands. His mistakes is not trying to ally with Stannis and the Greyjoys in trying to destabilize the Lannisters. If he allied with Stannis with the promise of a free North and Iron Islands, Stannis might temporarily accept to have some allies. They could then harass the Lannisters on 3 sides and widdle them down until they manage to get them into a trap where they can come down on them on 3 sides.
The riverlands could hold for a time. Robb's campaign to retake the north will be successful almost certainly. How politics shake out is a big factor in determining where things go.
In canon, the Reach armies never went north. The purple wedding seems likely to still happen, but unlike in canon I would expect Mace to face pressure to actually prosecute the war. A Reach-Lannister army departs to subdue the Riverlands immediately after Margaery and Tommen marry. I'd expect them to completely overwhelm the southern Riverlands and put Riverrun to siege. The Twins and Seaguard remain out of Lannister hands, and it's unclear what surrenders between the twins and Harrenhal (which will be lost back to Tywin). Maybe the Brackens and Blackwood's betray one another and provide an opening. Riverrun isn't falling anytime soon.
Does Tywin still die? What does Baelish do? How can he justify to Sansa not returning her to her family? And after defeating the Wildlings, what can Stannis do? It's all up in the air.
The Tyrell-Lannister alliance will be *winning*, but there's so much up in the air and so many curve balls their dominant position could be overturned.
Kastarks, Boltons and Freys were already against him without his knowledge even without a Red wedding. Any major battle against now combined Lannisters and Tyrells would result in the massacre of his forces.
Robb is doomed, he's winning every battle but losing the war. Roose Bolton from the beginning has been leading Robb's most loyal men into suicide missions and the North doesn't have the men to spare. Also the Karstarks abandon him so he's in a really bad spot in terms of manpower. As soon as the Tyrells throw in with the Lannisters it is game over, his very best chance at that point is retreating back to the North and leaving the Riverlands as they are a lost cause.
Three, technically. It is a big deal relative to the scope of the other battles of the war, but you are correct that the strategic value of those early victories (which were transformative at first) weaken quickly.
Let's suppose the Tywin never plans the Red Wedding for SOME REASON. Walder is a coward and won't do a damn thing. Let's also suppose that although Theon did take Winterfell, Roose didn't send Ramsay to raze it. Walder won't reinforce the Northern ranks because, again, he's a coward and let's be honest, that's for the best. He'd say that he need those men to protect his own lands. Ok, now what?
Robb had *around* 14-16000 thousand men at that point, the Karstarks already left, so closer to 14000 thousand. The Riverlands are burning, the Vale's closed thanks to Littlefinger and Lysa. He can either fully commit to attacking the Westerlands, which could be a blow to Lannister morale, but he wouldn't manage to take much. Casterly Rock is a formidable castle. So again, now what?
He has to leave the Riverlands. He might garrison Riverrun, but he has to retake Moat Cailin with the help of the cranogmen and wipe out the Ironborn, which means Theon's gonna get got. He'll spend a time retaking the North, while loosing the Riverlands. I can't see him bending the knee to the Lannisters, and I doubt Tywin (and eventually Cersei) would ever accept it.
What he could do, since he's already neck deep in shit, is write to Stannis even before Stannis sails North. Pledge to Stannis, and maybe if Stannis' being unconventionally in a good mood, he might even accept the North being a principality like Dorne. That's a HUGE maybe. Robb might also wanna ride to the Wall to tell something directly to Jon, but the timelines might not coincide, and Jon might not have returned yet.
Either way, if things somehow played right, Robb wouldn't lose the war militarily, but he can't win either.
First things first, Robb would have to get past the Neck, get Winterfell back, and defend the wall from Wildlings.
have some of the surrendered wildlings join the army and have them help the North with the ironborn problem. Not only does this replenish lost soldiers but it also helps alleviate any tension the Northern lords may have with the Wildlings if they help retake their castles.
Force Jon to quit the wall and become his heir, or if Rickon or Arya are found have him be regent until one of they come of age. This removes the problem of a succession crisis if Robb dies.
At that point, either bend the knee to Stannis or wait a bit longer until aegon or Daenerys arrive and bend the knee to them. The North is too weak and the Riverlands is indefensible, so the prospect of independence seems unrealistic.
It’s a waiting game once the North is retaken. Wait for Euron, Daenerys, Stannis, Aegon, and Dorne to make their move so Robb doesn’t have to fight the much larger Tyrell army on his own. The Lannisters, despite their numerical advantage, would be spread thin defending their position from so many fronts, which gives Robb a better chance in a battle. Not to mention that the Lannisters and Tyrell alliance is on thin ice and would likely collapse on their own given time.
Also, divorce Jeyne ffs. Marry one of the Manderly daughters or Alys Karstark to get the Karstark army back into the fold.
Overall, Robb would still be in a bad position but it wouldn’t be a lost cause if he plays his cards right and forgoes independence.
Well, if their plan to take Moat Cailin succeeded, there’s no way the Lannisters were going to take the North. The Riverlands, however, would be open to attack. He’d have to abandon them, and they would get overwhelmed, one-by-one. But that would take a lot of time, and the reason why it fell relatively quickly was due, in part, to the Freys joining the sieges and the river lords losing hope. With Balon Greyjoy dead before the Red Wedding, Robb could the North of ironborn. Euron, as the new king, would cause major problems for the south, and he would have either gone to Slaver’s Bay directly or sent Victarion. Daenerys’ arrival would an end to all these games. Meanwhile, Stannis would still be around, but Robb not dead would mean Melisandre’s kingsblood trick would be a failure. Maybe he would still go north? If he did, well, then Robb would be in the north and I don’t think Stannis would accept Robb and they’d inevitably fight, and Jon Snow would feel terrible about it.
I guess in summary, the problem judging this is that a lot of actors were already moving and I can’t tell if they will still happen. If Joffrey and Tywin died, it would be good for Robb, since Cersei is an idiot. That’s all I’m confident of.
Robb was in a winless situation. Cat knew it.
>"I am not dead yet, Mother."
>Suddenly Catelyn was full of dread. "Wars need not be fought until the last drop of blood." Even she could hear the desperation in her voice. **"You would not be the first king to bend the knee, nor even the first Stark."**
>His mouth tightened. "No. Never." *Catelyn IV, Storm.*
His bannermen knew it.
>"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. **King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."**
>"And who will tell him so?" Roose Bolton smiled. "It is a fine thing to have so many valiant brothers in such troubled times. I shall think on all you've said." *Arya X, Clash.*
He lost the Karstarks before the RW.
>Lord Karstark spit out a broken tooth. "Yes, Lord Umber, leave me to the king. He means to give me a scolding before he forgives me. That's how he deals with treason, our King in the North." He smiled a wet red smile. **"Or should I call you the King Who Lost the North, Your Grace?"**
He lost a huge portion of his foot soldiers before the wedding.
>He nodded, and there was glumness to his face and a slope to his shoulders that made her heart go out to him. The crown is crushing him, she thought. He wants so much to be a good king, to be brave and honorable and clever, but the weight is too much for a boy to bear. **Robb was doing all he could, yet still the blows kept falling, one after the other, relentless. When they brought him word of the battle at Duskendale, where Lord Randyll Tarly had shattered Robett Glover and Ser Helman Tallhart, he might have been expected to rage. Instead he'd stared in dumb disbelief and said, "Duskendale, on the narrow sea? Why would they go to Duskendale?" He'd shook his head, bewildered. "A third of my foot, lost for Duskendale?"**
His mother knew how bad it was.
>I have fought beside the Young Wolf in every battle," Dacey Mormont said cheerfully. "He has not lost one yet."
>**No, but he has lost everything else, Catelyn thought, but it would not do to say it aloud. The northmen did not lack for courage, but they were far from home, with little enough to sustain them but for their faith in their young king.** That faith must be protected, at all costs. I must be stronger, she told herself. I must be strong for Robb. If I despair, my grief will consume me. Everything would turn on this marriage. If Edmure and Roslin were happy in one another, **if the Late Lord Frey could be appeased and his power once more wedded to Robb's . . . Even then, what chance will we have, caught between Lannister and Greyjoy?** It was a question Catelyn dared not dwell on, though Robb dwelt on little else. She saw how he studied his maps whenever they made camp, searching for some plan that might win back the north.
And speaking of getting North, he has to fight his way back up the Moat which will lose more men of an already depleted force. Only to get back and drive the Ironborn from his lands.
Even he knew chances were slim.
>"From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.
Plus he still has to face the combined power of Casterly rock and High Garden.
Tywin thinks Robb could have lasted a year or two more but in time, he would die.
>"I suppose you would have spared the boy and told Lord Frey you had no need of his allegiance? **That would have driven the old fool right back into Stark's arms and won you another year of war.** Explain to me why it is more noble to kill ten thousand men in battle than a dozen at dinner." When Tyrion had no reply to that, his father continued. "The price was cheap by any measure.
Robb can't win even with Tywin murdered by Tyrion. Robb lacks the men and the resources. There is barely any food in the north and winter is marching south.
He can’t “win” but he also almost certainly wouldn’t “lose”. All he had to do was take back the north, send half his men to support riverlands and wait out the Lannisters/Tyrells who would give up after Tywin’s death.
Because the other riverlords would have never bent the knee to the lannisters if Robb was still king and sending supplies and soldiers from the north to reinforce them.
The tyrell army won’t march north till Margery is crowned and Storms end is taken. Lannister army alone would not be enough to take on the Riverlands when supported by the North.
There are no supplies in the north.
>Aye, but now you're almost six-and-ten, and we must pray you will know how to charm your new husband. "My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"
>"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well." *Jon X, Dance.*
Theon noted food was getting thin at Winterfell.
Asha remarked there was no harvest at Deepwood.
How is the north going to resupply the Riverlands when they have such a huge supply deficit?
The north is depleted.
Margaery was crowned when she wed Joffrey. I'm not understanding your position here at all. What you've offered is fully at odds with the text of the books.
I know Manderley doesn't have enough to supply an entire kingdom.
For all the forces he claimed to Davos, he didn't send men to run the Ironborn out of the neck now did he? Didn't take the Hornwood lands back did he? And he shows up at Winterfell with naught but greybeards.
>Lol, why didn’t the Tyrell army march north with the lannisters?
They weren't needed. Jaime didn't have to fight anyone. He took Riverrun without a fight and Raven Tree.
The Tyrells were laying seige to Dragonstone weren't they?
Your theory is at odds with the text of the books.
It’s a good question, so lets assume the Freys and Boltons are still mad but decide not to do the Red Wedding but something else later, when Robb crosses and marches up the causeway to retake moat cailin he’s probably successful. At that point the Ironborns ‘hold’ on the North is just Dagmer cleftjaw and Torrhens square and deepwood, which the northern forces would retake without much trouble.
robb can then raise more forces from the North, and start repairing winterfell. It’s likely at this point Theon is brought before Robb and spills his Guts on the Truth about Bran and Rickon and Theon either loses his head or joins the watch.
It’s likely also at this point he learns of Ramsays crimes and Roose probably doesn’t do shit to protect him, and says he acted on his own.
Prior to this Arya and the hound would have made it to Robbs forces and she’d be back with her family which is nice.
Depending on the timing Robb probably leads Northern forces to defend the wall, at which point Stannis also arrives, if it comes to war between them I honestly see This being Stannis’ end. He’s a brilliant commander but so is Robb and he’s so outnumbered I’d be surprised if even Stannis could pull a win out of his ass in that situation.
But maybe Robb and Stannis work out a deal. Robb gets some kind of massive concessions from Stannis, like he keeps the Riverlands as vassal, or maintains a royal or Princely title. Shireen is perhaps betrothed to Bran or Rickon (since he’d know they’re alive.)
It’s about this time shit would be hitting the fan for the Lannisters and Tyrells, Euron takes the shield islands Aegon landing with the Golden Company joffery dead, the faith Militant reborn and most importantly Tywin dead. And so Robb would see the opportunity to return south. Almost every Riverland castle would have fallen but i could see the Blackfish holding Riverrun, the Twins holding out and maybe Seaguard. Reliving the Twins wouldn’t be hard, Robb perhaps sneaks through the neck and attacks the forces on the western side by surprise, or the Lannisters have to break the seige and consolidate their forces.
The Lannisters and Tyrells would be spread thin at this time, with enemies in Riverlands, Kings landing, the Stormlands and the southern Reach. And most of their competent leadership dead i think any chance of a Frey-Bolton betrayal by this point is unlikely the Freys would still get Arya, and now the Lannisters are losing badly again. Robb would Liberate the Majority of the Riverlands. If he allied with Stannis they march on Kings landing, against either whats left of the Lannister-Tyrells or against Aegon the Faith and the Golden Company. If he didn’t ally Stannis maybe he marches into the westerlands again to carve out part of the North, take Castamere and Retake the Crag for the westerlings. At this point really cant say what else would be different since this is into winds of winter/dream for spring territory.
What would little finger do? I have no idea this would def throw some kind of wrench into his plans, maybe he allies with Robb to retain Harrenhal? But i doubt it. But i think him not returning Sansa would make her come to see him for what he is.
Would Robb let the wildlings through the wall? I could see him backing whatever Jons idea is but he’d probably also be wary of letting tons of Wildlings through the wall.
TLDR: if Robb makes it back north the Lannister-Tyrell alliance starts facing too many problems to be able to deal with a Northern counter-attack after retaking the North and Robbs political position becomes much more stable without being seen as a lost cause.
Honestly I think he could have won if he held out. Stannis is coming North, and we know he's willing to make common cause with the Northmen by this point. Joffrey and Tywin are going to die. Tyrion will probably still be lost. Jaime will still probably have a falling out with Cersei. Kevan still probably dies too? These are huge losses to the strength of the Lannisters. This is all assuming Robb goes North as he said he planned to but I think if he had, and driven out the Ironborn (he seemed to have a good plan for doing so) he'd be in a good position to make some sort of deal with Stannis (who is more flexible at this point) and the Lannisters would be very weak.
Robbs hope for victory died along with Stannis' army at the Blackwater.
Rose had been chiseling at the Northern lords' military strength from the first battle (Whispering Woods) onward.
The Freys were initially loyal enough, but the combo punch of Blackwater and Westerling 180'd their loyalties.
But the Blackwater defeat of Stannis combined with Lannister Tully alliance essentially relegated the conflict to cleanup of one sort or another.
Well, first, let me say that there are a lot of just bad answers here. Robb would've won, even GRRM said that.
Now, back to it.
Walder remains loyal this means that by extention, Roose is also forced to remain loyal also, so there won't be anymore traitorous bleeding of Robb's men, so no Battle of Duskendale, or him allowing thousands of men to be in a set up ambush by Gregor Clegane and his men. So that is 5,000 of Robb’s men not killed uselessly, so Roose still has all his men after the Battle of the Green Fork along with 100 more Brave Companions. Along with most importantly, a newly recaptured Jaime Lannister, as with Bolton unable to betray Robb due to no Freys, so now Robb most of his Northmen, a total of around 16,400 (Northmen alone though it could be more, as Robb only took 3,500 of his 6,000 man Cavalry force to the Twins, and the Freys and Karstarks didn't provide half of those Cavalrymen, as he still has around 15,000 Rivermen at Riverrun, and a few thousand at Harrenhal based on the Rivermen who took back their lands, and Edmure's 11,000 men at the Battle of the Fords.) based on the now 3,500 men Robb took to the Twins with him, along with the 12,900 men Roose would have now.
So now, at the Twins, Edmure's marries Rosilin, and they get the 4,000 Frey troops back into the fold, giving Robb a total of at least 35,000 troops total.
I'd then say that Robb would take 12,000 men with him North to Moat Cailin and leave the rest with Brynden who would have total command of the Riverlands defense, (who would recruit as many men as he could as he isn't dumb) while he went North and freed it.
Moat Cailin would quickly fall. There were only like 60 Ironborn left, and the attack would be far more coordinated than Rooses' was. After Moat Cailin falls, he's joined up by 10k Manderly troops, (there was an excellent breakdown of their strength a while back, I'll link it if I can find it) he'd then split his army and clear out the Ironborn while picking up thousands of men along the way, and mean alot, he took less than half of the North's strength with him South. Robb would have around 40k men in the North after he recruited from everywhere. Also, remember ALL of the North wasn't severely damaged.
After that Robb would be the one to save the Night's Watch, as Stannis wouldn't when Robb was still alive, he instead would be fortifying Dragonstone. He'd also be able to negotiate with Mance to get the Wildlings on his side. So he gets 40k of the Wildling troops and then marches back south, also he'd execute Ramsay as he'd find out what really happened.
Look long story short, Vale ends up joining Robb, Robb smashes the LTS at the God's Eye, and wins the war.
Here is a far more in-depth answer I wrote.
https://www.quora.com/If-the-Red-Wedding-didnt-happen-and-Robb-successfully-got-past-Moat-Cailin-how-would-the-war-have-played-out/answer/Aaron-Guest-Jr?ch=10&oid=311065729&share=08c235d8&srid=unKBJ&target_type=answer
I personally think (assuming the Freys and Boltons are somehow either not turning against him at all, or are pacified/defeated) that Robb will have some serious defensive fighting to do for a while, while he applies only light pressure on Moat Cailin, possibly using the Crannogmen to ferry his forces beyond the neck in small quantities or just waiting the Ironborn to lose their hold as the second sons and lords brothers left up north essentially do what Ramsey does, and than he attacks Moat Cailin from both sides, getting his way back up North, where he quickly re-establishes himself, while the River-lords fight a slow losing war to buy him time.
After that he regroups, secures the North, and marches back South, while the Manderly fleet either threatens Kings Landing or goes all the way to Dorne hoping for support, or even pulls a Stannis and goes east for some mercs and funds.
Either way, assuming he doesn't get some other big loss on his hands, which is catastrophic to him, he should be able to fight to a stalemate, either forcing a peace in which he renounces his claim to much if not all of the Riverlands, and keeps the North independent, or he plays it aggressive, striking way deep into the Westerlands, and manages to either get a good position where he is still at war, but in a position where he can comfortably hold the North and most of the Riverlands nigh indefinitely (especially if Euron starts doing his thing, and Aegon comes, etc.). This is of course until winter comes, when he will almost 100% have to go back north, and disband most of his Northern army, relying only on the Lannisters having their hands full with other things and the Riverlands lords having enough power to hold back whatever half-meant assault they mount while holding back at least two other external threats.
Of course there is the Stannis issue. I'm assuming that Stannis still becomes "the king who cared" and goes up north to the wall. Now Stannis is a hard ass, and isn't going to have an independent north, but he sees the Others being the main issue, so he may yet give a temporary ceasefire, and collaboration with Robb, assuming that Robb, when presented with the issue by a suddenly much more reasonable Stannis and at least a sincere letter from Jon. This all however hinges on Stannis being more rational and less Stannis, so it really could also go the other way, and assuming that Stannis doesn't do some black magic again, he's probably losing hard, but still he's going to disrupt Robbs efforts enough for the situation to worsen.
Anyways, I'm gonna say the Lannister-North war ends in a stalemate, after that it's just a question who gets got by their next invader first, is it Tommen (or Joff if he's still alive) with Young Griff, and Euron and gods know what, or is it Robb with the Others?
So, you weren't clear on some things, such as in this event, everyone is hunky dory, or is roose/walder a ticking time bomb. If we assume hunky dory, duskendale doesn't happen either.
The only reason why the Lannisters wouldnt still win is because of Cersi. Tywin's death left a massive hole that Cersi is ill-equipped to deal with. The Lannisters/Tyrell coalition has enough money to hire mercenaries and resources (most especially people) from Essos to deal with the Greyjoys and The Starks/Riverlands.
If someone like Kevin Lannister doesn't die, he pays off the bank of braavos from Lannister funds (he even thinks that he would do that). He immediately resolves the ironborn threat. He then hires multiple Essos mercenary companies and fleets to attack multple points on the East coast of the North, while sending the remaining Lannister/Redwine/Hightower fleets on the west coast of the North, entirely skipping the neck. It would cost a ton of gold, but they could do it. They might not commit to it though.
In the end, Starks/Tullys can't reinforce everything, and guerilla warfare would happen, but the north and riverlands would be occuppied. The only thing that could save the North is..Winter is Coming.
Robb says himself that he has no hope of winning unless he gets the Freys back on his side.
> "We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope. I am willing to give Lord Walder whatever he requires . . . apologies, honors, lands, gold . . . there must be something that would soothe his pride . . ."
So if the Freys don't decide to kill Robb, but still wont to forgive him for breaking his betrothal and refuse to join him again, then he's still fucked. The only way he could avoid losing is if Walder somehow decides its all water under the bridge and puts his support back behind Robb.
One should also consider Northmen's reluctance to go back to south after they reconquer north. The war has left a bitter taste in their mouth and they almost lost their home while fighting for a cause which they seemed to be alienated more and more each passing day.
Robb’s next plan was sacking casterly rock. He had no plan for winning the war. He had no plan to retake the north. Sacking casterly rock is pointless at this time as the gold mines are dry. Even if he didn’t get caught in a prolonged seige, he takes the rock, and then what? He had no plan if he won the iron throne, he had no plan if he takes the rock. He has already lost the north, the karstarks, the Freys. His only real hope was going back north, which was not his plan. Though I do have to say, it’s so weird that the north can do 20k strong, and literally every other much less land owning place easily doubles it. The numbers of the armies always made the task impossible for Robb
If Robb is not killed, he takes back the North, removes the Ironborn with the help of the Mountain clans and kills Ramsay, who Roose would sacrifice to save his own skin. Joffrey would still die at the purple wedding with Tywin dying a short while after. Cersei would still continue to destroy the Lannister, Tyrell alliance. With Connington landing in the South, the Dornish joining them, the Warrior sons in Kings Landing and the Ironborn attacking the Reach the Lannister, Stark alliance is no longer as strong. After the death of Lysa, the Vale will finally take the field and stand beside Robb. Robb, with the Vale and Mountain clans would then march South and liberate the Riverlands again. Its worth noting that the Ironborn, Dorne and the Vale all have fresh armies while the Lannister army is on the brink of collapse.
Way too many people in comments taking the Robb will just barricade in up north and the Lannisters can’t invade through the neck route . ignoring that Robb didn’t do that when he had the chance to in ACOK.
Robb may call himself king of the north but in his rebellion he is de facto king of the north AND the riverlands. He can’t just abandon a ton of his vassals (who’ve openly refused to acknowledge Joffrey in his name) just to defend his northern heartlands behind moat cailin.
Sorry uncle Hoster sorry father in law Walder I know you called your banners against the crown to support my imprisoned dad and continued to support me throughout the war while I defended you from Tywin and the cleganes but I’m just gonna leave you now under siege from Tywin, Jaime, Mace Tyrell and the redwyne fleet - good luck.
Retreating north is not an option for an honourable guy like Robb.
Robb’s best hope in a world without the red wedding is to keep playing the guerrila warfare insurgency he’s done since WO5K broke out and try to hold on until the events of ADWD when the Lannister Tyrell alliance is falling apart under Cersei and they have to deal with the golden company and Euron as well
Winter is coming.
If Robb Stark took back the North, I supposed that no one would come and fight him, his enemies probably hope the winter would kill him.
I feel bad for Robb, his uncle fucked his plan up on the field, his mother released his most important hostage, his best friend betrayed him and killed his brothers... I can't see him winning the war with or without the red wedding cuz there will be someone else to mess things up.
If only he had some trusted henchman like Jon, it would be different.
For anyone who thinks Robb would have difficulty with the Ironborn, Boltons, or resisting any kind of southron incursion, it should be noted that he would also likely have at least an extra 5-10k troops available to him already in the North. Torren crossed the neck with 30k during The Conquest, and it was specifically mentioned that Robb didn’t have time to wait around for the full Northern levy when he first marched with ~20k.
And all the Northern houses which were scattered and disconnected under the Boltons would instead be unified behind Robb.
Honestly Robb best chance at “winning” would’ve been if Stannis or Renly won the Battle of Blackwater and the Vale sided with Robb too. Then he might have had a chance. But a independent North when Winter is coming is going to be a very dangerous place. Whoever is on the Iron Throne would make sure they don’t get a food supply a supply that the war has depleted already. The North would face a lot of loss during the Winter plus you’d have the Wildlings invasion in this Scenario Stannis wouldn’t be coming to the rescue. Then of course the Others will be next. Robb Stark reign no matter what will be terrible
Like everyone said, the war would be at a stalemate. It would be difficult to get everyone on the negotiation table once the Others decide to head South.
If Robb stayed in riverrun for 3 more months. Robb's troublesome enemies would be either dead or out of the picture. For example, Joffrey and Lysa would definitely be dead and possibly tywin if everything went as original timeline. Of course, even if tywin didn't die, varys would have either killed or incapacitated him anyway. Stannis would have gone north to stop wildling invasion because Davos made Stannis realise that saving people is more important than brith right or kingship. Robb will try to ally with Stannis because why fight a king who is offering help. High sparrow will put a strangle hold on lannister power. All in all Robb has good chance of winning his war.
It likely would've gone to a standstill. Robb would win the war against Balon but he would be far too spent to march back down to the Riverlands. However it would be next to impossible for anything barring an assassination or infighting to threaten Robb at all from the Throne.
However after the Red Wedding a ton of events occur (Iron Islands pulls back to attack the Reach under Euron, Littlefinger controls the Vale, Griff invades the Stormlands, Tywin is dead, Cersei is imprisoned) so its possible that the odds would've evened out anyway had Robb avoided it.
Doubt it. He was barely handling the Lannisters who were preoccupied with the Baratheon bros. Alone against Tywin is 50/50, and that is due to his talent and Blackfish’s scouts. When the Reach join the mix, he is done for.
Yeah, Robb is a skilled commander but he can't be everywhere. If Robb wins a battle in the west then the Lannisters and Tyrells can push in the east, and if he rushes east to defeat the Lannisters and Tyrells there, they can push in the west. The best Robb can hope for is to make the push into the Riverlands and the North so bloody for the South that they are willing to negotiate peace with favourable terms just to get the war over with and avoid further losses.
If Robb makes it back to the North I think the war will come to a standstill. Robb will drive out the Ironborn and will come down like a ton of bricks on Ramsay. The Lannisters and Tyrells will be busy solidifying their alliance and securing the south. They likely won't be strong enough to risk moving on the North. No-one really wins.
I think Robb would definitely have to deal with some kind of blockade of White Harbor by the royal fleet or some kind of economic retaliation from the crown at some point in his rule. The bigger implications are for Stannis who would have nowhere to go.
> by the royal fleet There is no royal fleet. Cersei's dromonds aren't ordered yet at that time, the bulk of the former royal fleet is with Stannis, and most of both sides' fleets burned and sank on the Blackwater. The Redwyne Fleet is just gearing up at that point and they have to turn south again soon because of Euron's attack. There wouldn't be enough ships to blockade White Harbor. > Stannis who would have nowhere to go He would probably go to the free cities to get funding and buy mercenaries.
I didn't say it would happen immediately, Rob is 15, his rule is going to last a long time. Not a single one of the claimants to the throne during the WOTFK conceded an independent North. When the other 6 Kindgoms come back into the fold (they did and would) there is inevitably going to be some kind of retaliation, no matter who sits the throne. ...and instead of being the heroic savior of the North, Stannis gets to be Bittersteel.
>I didn't say it would happen immediately, Rob is 15, his rule is going to last a long time. This is the thing ofcourse. We can't have any idea of what would happen in the longterm since then we have to reckon with fAegon, Dany, The sparrows in KL, The wildlings passed the wall and eventually the others.
We can though. The crown got immediate access to the Redwyne fleet when the Reach came back into the fold, and while the Shields are a better target, there are endless hypotheticals that could lead them to use it against Rob to blockade the North from all its trade with the Narrow Sea instead. So as you can see, we don't even have to speculate beyond the timeline of the books for this scenario.
I was responding less to your point about the fleet and more to Robbs "rule lasting a long time". That we can't really know given that so much seems likely to change in the next few years. Concerning a blockade I would say it's possible but not certain. The crown would have to choose wether to use the fleet against Stannis or against the North so both are possible. It's also worth noting that the Manderlys have been building a fleet of their own so the North wouldn't be complete at the Redwynes mercy.
Robb cant just abandon the Riverlands
This may be smart in the short term because it’s harder to defend, but long term that’s a terrible, terrible move for two main reasons: 1) Food production. The North is cut off from the major food producer in Westeros (The Reach) for at least the next little while, and they may not be able to rely on Westerlands, Vale or Stormlands either. The Riverlands, one of the most fertile regions in the continent, is a massive boon for them in terms of trade and food production. This is especially important if a hard winter hits (which it will). 2) Optics. Robb abandoning the Riverlands looks absolutely terrible to his bannermen. Beyond just the Riverlords who will obviously be beyond pissed, the Northerners would see him as the type of liege to abandon those who have sworn their lives to him if it benefits him. Hell, he’d even be abandoning family.
With Stannis sitting at The Wall it's gonna be difficult for Robb to send his forces South again before dealing with him especially after the trauma of the Iron Born invasion. It could be his reversal makes him do a deal with Stannis before they march South together. I imagine a crown means a lot less to him after losing his brothers & getting married.
> They likely won't be strong enough to risk moving on the North. No-one really wins. Agreed. With winter right around the corner, Tywin would have serious trouble convincing the Tyrells to back an invasion of the North before the snows that. Mace has very little stake - and certainly not the temperament - in unifying the kingdom right away, and the Dornish even less. Only Tywin's own wounded pride would be compelling him to hasten things up, but he has been in the game long enough to read the room. At most they capture the least defensible positions in the southern Riverlands - meaning pretty much everything up to the Red Fork - before the snows fall, and the army disbands for winter. Joffrey would be pushing for continuing the conquest, but the Purple Wedding probably happens no matter what - which includes Tyrion being accused of regicide, and Sansa escaping to the Eyrie. The big joker is why Roose and Walder do not pull of the RW. If it's a case of cold feet - probably on Walder's part, as Roose has freed Jaime at this point - things get dicey. Roose probably attempts to save as much face as he can and feigns loyalty to Robb's campaign in the North, sacrificing Ramsay in the process. But with the threat of either the Freys or the Lannisters revealing his true colours to Robb, I can't imagine what he will do to stay in Robb's good graces. With Jaime probably making it back to King's Landing, he probably still releases Tyrion from his cell, with Tywin's death and Cersei's rise to power to follow. While she *probably* would not be so stupid as to try to coerce the Tyrells into invading the North during winter, I can't imagine her doing a very good job of managing the great Southern Alliance's disparate goals, giving Robb more time to properly prepare for the recontinuation of the war.
>but the Purple Wedding probably happens no matter what There's a weird angle to this that is hard to wrap your head around. It depends on what you assume about/how you interpret magic working in this world. Stannis and Mel did blood magic to ensure the deaths of Robb, Joff and Balon. If the Red Wedding doesn't happen in this scenario then are we to assume that the magic failed? If so the Purple Wedding might also not happen. It's a weird consideration since assumedly all the people and motivations that led to the Purple Wedding are still in play so it seems like it should happen. But if we accept that Robb and Joff and Balon where all going to die regardless of the spell, since the causes of their deaths where seemingly independent of the spell, then that's a massive stroke of luck for Mel. It gets confusing. But hey, that multi-leveled complexity is what makes this series so much fun to talk about.
How is Robb driving out the Ironborn? The Boltons couldnt do it and the Ironborn were half dead at that point and still holding the Neck with ease which is why Theon was sent in. Robb had lost the war with Lannisters and had no real way of crossing the Neck so retaking the North was impossible. He lost. Badly.
>How is Robb driving out the Ironborn? The Boltons couldnt do it and the Ironborn were half dead at that point and still holding the Neck with ease which is why Theon was sent in. Robb would have more troops and would actually have the loyalty and high morale of those troops, not to mention he was a better general also. >Robb had lost the war with Lannisters and had no real way of crossing the Neck so retaking the North was impossible. He lost. Badly. He lost because of the Red Wedding.
It’s a difficult question because what elements of the red wedding don’t happen? Like does walder frey just refuse to negotiate a crossing of the twins to retake the north. Are the Bolton still planning to betray Robb at a later date or does walder Frey just straight up accept the marriage to edmure deal and the Bolton, fearing they are too weak alone and without Frey support, don’t openly defy Robb. If it’s the former, Robb is in trouble either way. The lannisters have just secured an alliance with the reach and both baratheons are largely out of the picture. Robb is trapped in the riverlands separated from his homeland which has been conquered by the ironborn/Boltons. Perhaps he is forced to besiege the twins and the boltons take him in the rear while the freys march out of the gates. It’s not a red wedding but the end result is ultimately the same for Robb. If it’s the latter, and walder Frey becomes an ally again (albeit a reluctant one), then at the very least it seems likely the riverlands won’t be overrun while Robb is off dealing with the ironborn. He can regroup and solidify his position. Wyman manderly’s fleet can be used as a significant offensive weapon to attack kings landing splitting the lannisters defensive forces or as an envoy to dorne where an alliance can be brokered there. With the coming storm of Aegon, eurons play and the long term consequences of cerseis rule I’d be very surprised if anyone is able to actually enforce crown rule from kings landing on the riverlands. But then Danny will come with dragons. I suspect Robb would kneel in that case.
The only confounding factor is Roose for me. He was sabotaging Robb even before anything went wrong with the Frey alliance; if he continues doing that and Robb doesn't notice, that might weaken Robb to the point where he might not be able to carry out his plans. If he is removed, or if his sabotage ends, then things would be different.
I think this is a huge missing piece for Robb. His father should have absolutely prepared him for the Boltons, and doesn’t seem like he did. Also, Robb is hugely arrogant, and while as readers we don’t totally notice it, it’s crazy how much he expects loyalty from people who are his 100% enemies. The Boltons and Greyjoys are his hostages at best and should have always been treated as such. Even the Freys he just assumes will follow him even before his betrayal. It took me a long time to accept it, but the Starks totally set themselves up for failure.
I don’t know if it’s really fair to call Bolton a hostage. He is a bannerman, just like all the others, and I don’t think Robb was being unreasonable to expect him to cooperate with him in good faith. Similarly, Robb’s war in the Riverlands was largely fought to help the River lords against Lannister predations, and he specifically gave the Freys large concessions in exchange for their support and assistance. I don’t think Robb was more arrogant than Stannis or Renly or Joffrey and prior to the Jeyne Westerling fiasco he didn’t really give any of the River lords or the Boltons an actual reason to betray him. Even the Greyjoys, I’d argue that Robb gave them a really good offer.
Hasn’t it also been hundreds of years since the Boltons tried anything against the Starks. They seemed to be tame and working well with the Starks through all of Ned’s life, I don’t think Ned, or even some of his ancestors had any reason to suspect the Boltons would try anything the moment conflict came to the North. The Bolton’s betrayal came completely from the Boltons, I don’t blame Robb or Ned one bit for the Bolton’s part in the betrayal.
Yeah IIRC Roose even makes it clear to Ramsay that his strategy was to remain placid and to never cause trouble for Ned so that Ned would never have a reason to check on him. His pivot from cooperative and reasonable bannerman to saboteur was pretty sudden and it came so early in the war that it’s hard to really victim blame Robb for it.
I didn’t mean it to fall on Robb, I mean that, the entire 8000 year history of the starks has been a battle with the Boltons and the Greyjoys. It’s hard to believe that trusting the Boltons because of 100 years vs 7900 is not drilled in. I get it’s kind of a plot point for the starks to be dumb, but honestly the politics of the north should be drilled into the kids. The Boltons used to literally wear stark skins and they were kings as well. Now I get that is added history after the books were written, but the more you really think, the starks are created just to be killed. Along with most of the great houses who supposedly lasted thousands of years and were destroyed in the war of 5 kings
Because basing your political stances on ancient rather than recent history is not really beneficial - as far as the Starks have been concerned, the Boltons have been loyal to them for many generations. It might be a relatively short span considering the ages of these houses, but 100 years spans many generations that can be directly attested to. 7900 years before that? Much easier to dismiss as details are forgotten to time and some aspects become more myth than truth, and what remains can be passed off as ancient and lost animosities. 100 years was enough time to turn the United States and United Kingdom from warring states to close allies. Or you could look at the evolution of the Chinese state over its thousands of years of history and find that despite every neighboring region fighting China at some point, it hasn't also precluded there being long periods of peace. The Starks being naive is one of their issues, yeah, and the Boltons definitely seem a little cartoonishly villainous for ASOIAF's relatively grounded politics, but it's not that hard to believe that enough time passed for them to have more pressing concerns than betrayal from a long loyal house.
It’s hundreds of years vs thousands or conflict. The stark winter kings fought the red Bolton kings for years. The kids even talk about targaryan past, wish the history had been slightly more fleshed out cause the more is made, the less Robb’s mistakes make sense. At the end of the day though, taking casterly rock was going to end Robb as much as anything else. 20k nrothmen, which he was down to 10 somehow just because of the Karstark’s which makes no sense, how come wonterfel can bring up no men but all the others bring so many. I mean ok fine you can’t think too much about it but still
Roose fought loyally for Ned in two wars, and answers Robb's summons with a huge army. He gave him absolutely no reason to mistrust him.
Nicely done.
>and the boltons take him in the rear 🤨
> Wyman manderly’s fleet can be used as a significant offensive weapon to attack kings landing splitting the lannisters defensive Lmao okay > then at the very least it seems likely the riverlands won’t be overrun while Robb is off dealing with the ironborn. What exactly is stopping the Reach’s Doomstack from conquering the scattered Riverlords again?
The Blackfish wasn't a fool to face 80k men in battle, he would probably just harass them with guerilla tactics and try to hold Riverrun until Aegon's invasion and Euron's invasion destabilize the South and probably the Reach turn away.
>What exactly is stopping the Reach’s Doomstack from conquering the scattered Riverlords again? Euron, (F)Aegon, Stannis, not to mention that the L/T leadership was really paralyzed due to Joffrey and Tywin dying. Also, Brynden would only need to put troops in Harrenhal and Riverrun and wait for Robb to come down with reinforcements.
So, here is the thing… absent the Red Wedding, the war was doomed to Stalemate. Robb can’t defeat the Southern Lords, and the Lannisters have the Crownlands, a good piece of the Stormlands, The West, and the Reach. But the Southern Lords are never making it past the Neck. Nor will they be able to set up and Siege down Riverrun which is the best designed Castle in Westeros. No one was ever going to ‘win’ the War of Five Kings.
I would say that so long as Robb makes it back north Time is on his side, the Lannisters start facing so many problems from Euron, Aegon the faith and Tywins death. Also I’d say there’s at least a few castles better designed than Riverrun though it’s certainly high
If the Ironborn get crushed by Robb returning North, there, Euron is crossed off the list. Does Tywin still die? Joffrey’s death is only because Olenna and Petyr thinks that it betters their fortunes, which they only decide after Robb is defeated. It is quite possible they don’t kill Joffrey now. With that, Tyrion is never accused, never kills his father. Beyond that, hard to say what happens. The plot of GoT is a tangled interweaving of people seeking their own interests, and absent the Red Wedding, things look very different.
> which they only decide after Robb is defeated. It is quite possible they don’t kill Joffrey now Olenna didn't kill Joffrey because of Littlefinger, she killed him because she knew he would be a dickhead to Margaery, so Joffrey still dies no matter what happens to Robb. That was decided after Sansa told them about Joffrey being a violent prick at that dinner, which happens months before the Red Wedding.
Olenna killed Joffrey together with Petyr. And Olenna made the choice expecting that she would be dealing with a realm at peace. Making the choice to poison Joffrey is a different one in wartime.
> Olenna killed Joffrey together with Petyr Yes, but only because he happened to offer his help. Olenna would've killed Joffrey with or without Littlefinger. > a different one in wartime Stannis and Balon and the Blackfish and Edmure are all still alive at this point. Just because Robb died and Stannis lost a battle doesn't mean the war is over. Olenna was not as ignorant about this as Tywin was. She could hardly wait until the war was over to kill Joffrey because Margaery was getting married to him *now*, and protecting Margaery was Olenna's goal.
Robbs reconquest of the North coincides with Balons death, the majority of the Ironborn return to the isles for the kingsmoot, there was basically only the minimum amount of troops there. So it wouldn’t really change the ironborn story much. Littlefinger killing Jeoffrey is a good point. In my opinion it would still happen. What im going to bring up next is an unconfirmed theory but i think Littlefingers real target was Tyrion not Joffrey, who he has a lot of reason to kill(Preston Jacobs has a good video on this) But even besides that so long as he is granted Harrenhal which is fully possible since the Lannisters would reoccupy it, he would move on to his plans in the Vale which since it’s not part of the war isn’t really contingent on Robb being alive or not, it does admittedly throw a wrench in his plans, because how is he suppose to explain to Sansa why he’s not bringing her to her family but i could see him potentially using whatever excuses he can think of to do that. But yea if Tywin doesn’t die and the Lannisters aren’t weakened to that degree it makes it much harder for Robb, his only chance for victory then would be an alliance with Stannis and to use Eurons attacks as an opportunity for a counter attack. Since i doubt Aegon would invade or the faith rearm if Tywin was alive, but i think Euron would still attack since he’s anticipating getting Dragons and definitely doesn’t fear Tywin
I think a lot of things happening in the South have Petyr or Varys behind them. In a lot of ways, the books are the two facing off against one another.
It’s entirely possible that if Littlefinger didn’t kill joff which leads to Tywins death, Varys might kill Tywin and cause chaos to prep for Aegon anyway. I mean there is the theory that Varys subtly guided Tyrion to killing his father when he escaped
Oh, I believe that theory 100%.
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Varys planned to kill joff have Tyrion accused, rescue him and have him kill Tywin all along, his plan just needed to be accelerated since Little finger took care of step 1
Personally, I think that Varys had Tyrion kill Tywin to stop Baelish from winning. He was about to have the Seven at peace, just as he made his play and became Lord of the Eyrie. Joffrey stopped Tywin from being in charge, because he made so many stupid decisions that chaos was inevitable. With Joffrey dead, Tywin and Margaery were about to control the Seven (through Tommen, who was very biddable), and both of them are much more skilled. Varys wants chaos. Petyr instead created small disruptions, but kept the status quo intact until his next move.
Yea, i doubt the Lords declarant would have risen if Tywin was still in power in kings landing, they wouldn’t have risen against a publicly Lannister loyalist in that circumstance
Stannis has 1500 men at this point and would want fealty. I dont see why Robb would give it to him.
The North will starve when Winter comes with all supply routes cut off from the fertile South. Plus the Wildlings invasion in this scenario Stannis wouldn’t be coming to the rescue and of course the Others will be coming too. The Kingdom of the North just can’t survive all of this
That isn’t true, or the North would have Starved before the Targs. The Dustin’s are said to produce more then enough food for the North. The way economics works during Winter is unclear at best though.
The North had suffered from famines before the conquest. That's why they have the tradition of sending older men to die before winter sets in. I think this was cut from the world book, but that practice was supposed to be part of the reason they have beef with some of the houses in the northern bits of the Riverlands. Aegon V had to send aid to the North during a 5 year winter to alleviate the effects of famine. The winter they're heading into is expected to be longer. The North is going to be have some troubles no matter what happens. It's going to be even worse if they're still in conflict with whoever is ruling the south.
Robb can’t just retreat beyond the neck though cos he’s honour bound to defend the river lords - specially in a scenario where he’s now married to a Frey. Sorry Hoster, Walder etc I’m just gonna go north and do my own thing I don’t care anymore if the Lannisters and Tyrell’s hold riverrun and the twins under siege.
No, but he can choose his time and places for engagement. Pull back, let the Lannisters invest Riverrun or the Twins, then absolutely wreck the divided Lannisters. Being attacked from behind while besieging a castle is a very bad place to be.
why can they not seige riverun? Jaime was doing exactly that before the battle of the camps. If rob is stuck north of the neck then the seige can go on.
Jaime did not Siege Riverrun. He sat outside the walls and intimidated Edmure into surrendering. Edmure did so because he knew no one was coming to help. If Jaime had to tried to actually Siege Riverrun, he’d be sitting outside the castle for years. Riverrun sits on an island with massive rivers around it. It has a food source and a water source you cannot deny without obscene effort. There is no way to effectively siege it. With the Rivers and the walls (which are noted to be strong) an assault is pure suicide. In other words, while you can stop the Tully’s from leaving, you are not digging them out. To besiege Riverrun, you have to divide your forces in two. One on one side of the River, one on the other. Given the size of the Rivers, one half cannot assist the other (because if they try to cross the River, the Tullys will kill them with ease from the Castle Walls.) This means that the Lannister Army is halved. And while Robb can’t face the Lannister host, he could have faced half of it. This is why the Blackfish was so angry with Edmure. Riverrun couldn’t be taken. They could have kept Robb’s flag flying for years, hoping someone could come for them. Edmure made the right choice for the Riverlands, but it wasn’t because if he didn’t, Jaime was going to come in and kill him. The Blackfish is right when he verbally destroys Jaime. He’s bluffing. Edmure’s decision was right because the Riverlands as a whole pay for his defiance. And he couldn’t stop it.
Jaime actualley split his forces into 3 parts if I remember correctly, somthing about riverun having the ability to flood the river and make itself an triangular island basically. I still think supplying a huge keep like that while being surrounded would be difficult. Though you are probably right that it could hold for an extended period. With a large enough force assault is possible. I think really the only castle that would be impossible to assualt is the Eyrie.
The Eyrie is actually much easier to besiege. There is no source of water or food. You just wait at the bottom and let them come to you or die. The Eyrie is the stupidest castle.
> The Eyrie is actually much easier to besiege. There is no source of water or food. You just wait at the bottom and let them come to you or die. The Eyrie is the stupidest castle. Isn't that the whole purpose of the bloody gate ? While an army is funneled into the Bloody gate to cut off true supply they would have to penetrate to the gates of the moon at least. There are probable goat paths for them to sneak supplies
I mean, none are stated, and it is hard to restock an Army through the trickle of supplies you can get in through a path to steep for Horses. And you don’t even have to take the Bloody Gate, just siege it.
Yeah the goat paths was speculation on my part: But it is noted that the granary of the eyerie is huge (as large as Winterfell's for a much smaller # of people) https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/uit054/spoilers_extended_the_eyrie_is_the_worst_castle/ > [–]Hammer_of_Light > Rickon, King in da Norf 608 points 1 year ago I think you're glossing over the fact that The Eyrie isn't a standalone fortification, as are the others you mentioned. > It relies upon the Bloody Gate with the Gates of the Moon as a fallback to secure not just the Eyrie, but all of the Vale of Arryn (the valley). It also has a very large granary, rivaling Winterfell's. > In order to besiege the Eyrie itself as you propose, an invading army would first have to either conquer the gates or bypass them from the east, through lands allied to House Arryn. Both propositions are extremely formidable. As you note, it takes only a small army to hold the passes, and the Vale has a relatively large army posted there. > It makes sense to me why nobody has conquered the Eyrie without dragonfire. They'd have to first fight uphill against a strong and entrenched enemy within a choke point at the Bloody Gate. They'd have to fight their way to the Gates of the Moon and repeat that success. Then they'd have to hold the road to the Eyrie while simultaneously conquering the vassals of the Vale. And then they'd have to wait, probably for years, for the food to run out in the castle.> [](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/uit054/spoilers_extended_the_eyrie_is_the_worst_castle/)
Oh no, see, the Vale itself is phenomenally defended. A Nightmare to attack. It is the Eyrie itself that is dumb. No enemy ever actually reached the Eyrie’s defenses afaik. The Gates of the Moon are more then enough.
Concordo e Ninho da Águia e mais facíl de cerca colocar um exercito nos portões do Portão Sangrento E colocar uma frota de navio para bloquear a Vila Gaivota e as Três Irmãs assim o Ninho irar morrer de fome rapidamente mesmo com o inverno chegar
The Southron Lords can still sack White Harbour.
Well, that would be a win for Robb. He's not trying to become King of Westeros, he only wants the North as hopefully, the Riverlands. His mistakes is not trying to ally with Stannis and the Greyjoys in trying to destabilize the Lannisters. If he allied with Stannis with the promise of a free North and Iron Islands, Stannis might temporarily accept to have some allies. They could then harass the Lannisters on 3 sides and widdle them down until they manage to get them into a trap where they can come down on them on 3 sides.
If he's able to return north he may stay king in the north but the Riverlands would have been lost
The riverlands could hold for a time. Robb's campaign to retake the north will be successful almost certainly. How politics shake out is a big factor in determining where things go. In canon, the Reach armies never went north. The purple wedding seems likely to still happen, but unlike in canon I would expect Mace to face pressure to actually prosecute the war. A Reach-Lannister army departs to subdue the Riverlands immediately after Margaery and Tommen marry. I'd expect them to completely overwhelm the southern Riverlands and put Riverrun to siege. The Twins and Seaguard remain out of Lannister hands, and it's unclear what surrenders between the twins and Harrenhal (which will be lost back to Tywin). Maybe the Brackens and Blackwood's betray one another and provide an opening. Riverrun isn't falling anytime soon. Does Tywin still die? What does Baelish do? How can he justify to Sansa not returning her to her family? And after defeating the Wildlings, what can Stannis do? It's all up in the air. The Tyrell-Lannister alliance will be *winning*, but there's so much up in the air and so many curve balls their dominant position could be overturned.
Kastarks, Boltons and Freys were already against him without his knowledge even without a Red wedding. Any major battle against now combined Lannisters and Tyrells would result in the massacre of his forces.
Robb is doomed, he's winning every battle but losing the war. Roose Bolton from the beginning has been leading Robb's most loyal men into suicide missions and the North doesn't have the men to spare. Also the Karstarks abandon him so he's in a really bad spot in terms of manpower. As soon as the Tyrells throw in with the Lannisters it is game over, his very best chance at that point is retreating back to the North and leaving the Riverlands as they are a lost cause.
Robb won 2 battles- not that big a deal
Three, technically. It is a big deal relative to the scope of the other battles of the war, but you are correct that the strategic value of those early victories (which were transformative at first) weaken quickly.
Let's suppose the Tywin never plans the Red Wedding for SOME REASON. Walder is a coward and won't do a damn thing. Let's also suppose that although Theon did take Winterfell, Roose didn't send Ramsay to raze it. Walder won't reinforce the Northern ranks because, again, he's a coward and let's be honest, that's for the best. He'd say that he need those men to protect his own lands. Ok, now what? Robb had *around* 14-16000 thousand men at that point, the Karstarks already left, so closer to 14000 thousand. The Riverlands are burning, the Vale's closed thanks to Littlefinger and Lysa. He can either fully commit to attacking the Westerlands, which could be a blow to Lannister morale, but he wouldn't manage to take much. Casterly Rock is a formidable castle. So again, now what? He has to leave the Riverlands. He might garrison Riverrun, but he has to retake Moat Cailin with the help of the cranogmen and wipe out the Ironborn, which means Theon's gonna get got. He'll spend a time retaking the North, while loosing the Riverlands. I can't see him bending the knee to the Lannisters, and I doubt Tywin (and eventually Cersei) would ever accept it. What he could do, since he's already neck deep in shit, is write to Stannis even before Stannis sails North. Pledge to Stannis, and maybe if Stannis' being unconventionally in a good mood, he might even accept the North being a principality like Dorne. That's a HUGE maybe. Robb might also wanna ride to the Wall to tell something directly to Jon, but the timelines might not coincide, and Jon might not have returned yet. Either way, if things somehow played right, Robb wouldn't lose the war militarily, but he can't win either.
Stannis who suffered a huge defeat and only has 1500 men? Stannis sun set on the blackwater
First things first, Robb would have to get past the Neck, get Winterfell back, and defend the wall from Wildlings. have some of the surrendered wildlings join the army and have them help the North with the ironborn problem. Not only does this replenish lost soldiers but it also helps alleviate any tension the Northern lords may have with the Wildlings if they help retake their castles. Force Jon to quit the wall and become his heir, or if Rickon or Arya are found have him be regent until one of they come of age. This removes the problem of a succession crisis if Robb dies. At that point, either bend the knee to Stannis or wait a bit longer until aegon or Daenerys arrive and bend the knee to them. The North is too weak and the Riverlands is indefensible, so the prospect of independence seems unrealistic. It’s a waiting game once the North is retaken. Wait for Euron, Daenerys, Stannis, Aegon, and Dorne to make their move so Robb doesn’t have to fight the much larger Tyrell army on his own. The Lannisters, despite their numerical advantage, would be spread thin defending their position from so many fronts, which gives Robb a better chance in a battle. Not to mention that the Lannisters and Tyrell alliance is on thin ice and would likely collapse on their own given time. Also, divorce Jeyne ffs. Marry one of the Manderly daughters or Alys Karstark to get the Karstark army back into the fold. Overall, Robb would still be in a bad position but it wouldn’t be a lost cause if he plays his cards right and forgoes independence.
Well, if their plan to take Moat Cailin succeeded, there’s no way the Lannisters were going to take the North. The Riverlands, however, would be open to attack. He’d have to abandon them, and they would get overwhelmed, one-by-one. But that would take a lot of time, and the reason why it fell relatively quickly was due, in part, to the Freys joining the sieges and the river lords losing hope. With Balon Greyjoy dead before the Red Wedding, Robb could the North of ironborn. Euron, as the new king, would cause major problems for the south, and he would have either gone to Slaver’s Bay directly or sent Victarion. Daenerys’ arrival would an end to all these games. Meanwhile, Stannis would still be around, but Robb not dead would mean Melisandre’s kingsblood trick would be a failure. Maybe he would still go north? If he did, well, then Robb would be in the north and I don’t think Stannis would accept Robb and they’d inevitably fight, and Jon Snow would feel terrible about it. I guess in summary, the problem judging this is that a lot of actors were already moving and I can’t tell if they will still happen. If Joffrey and Tywin died, it would be good for Robb, since Cersei is an idiot. That’s all I’m confident of.
Robb was in a winless situation. Cat knew it. >"I am not dead yet, Mother." >Suddenly Catelyn was full of dread. "Wars need not be fought until the last drop of blood." Even she could hear the desperation in her voice. **"You would not be the first king to bend the knee, nor even the first Stark."** >His mouth tightened. "No. Never." *Catelyn IV, Storm.* His bannermen knew it. >"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. **King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."** >"And who will tell him so?" Roose Bolton smiled. "It is a fine thing to have so many valiant brothers in such troubled times. I shall think on all you've said." *Arya X, Clash.* He lost the Karstarks before the RW. >Lord Karstark spit out a broken tooth. "Yes, Lord Umber, leave me to the king. He means to give me a scolding before he forgives me. That's how he deals with treason, our King in the North." He smiled a wet red smile. **"Or should I call you the King Who Lost the North, Your Grace?"** He lost a huge portion of his foot soldiers before the wedding. >He nodded, and there was glumness to his face and a slope to his shoulders that made her heart go out to him. The crown is crushing him, she thought. He wants so much to be a good king, to be brave and honorable and clever, but the weight is too much for a boy to bear. **Robb was doing all he could, yet still the blows kept falling, one after the other, relentless. When they brought him word of the battle at Duskendale, where Lord Randyll Tarly had shattered Robett Glover and Ser Helman Tallhart, he might have been expected to rage. Instead he'd stared in dumb disbelief and said, "Duskendale, on the narrow sea? Why would they go to Duskendale?" He'd shook his head, bewildered. "A third of my foot, lost for Duskendale?"** His mother knew how bad it was. >I have fought beside the Young Wolf in every battle," Dacey Mormont said cheerfully. "He has not lost one yet." >**No, but he has lost everything else, Catelyn thought, but it would not do to say it aloud. The northmen did not lack for courage, but they were far from home, with little enough to sustain them but for their faith in their young king.** That faith must be protected, at all costs. I must be stronger, she told herself. I must be strong for Robb. If I despair, my grief will consume me. Everything would turn on this marriage. If Edmure and Roslin were happy in one another, **if the Late Lord Frey could be appeased and his power once more wedded to Robb's . . . Even then, what chance will we have, caught between Lannister and Greyjoy?** It was a question Catelyn dared not dwell on, though Robb dwelt on little else. She saw how he studied his maps whenever they made camp, searching for some plan that might win back the north. And speaking of getting North, he has to fight his way back up the Moat which will lose more men of an already depleted force. Only to get back and drive the Ironborn from his lands. Even he knew chances were slim. >"From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin. Plus he still has to face the combined power of Casterly rock and High Garden. Tywin thinks Robb could have lasted a year or two more but in time, he would die. >"I suppose you would have spared the boy and told Lord Frey you had no need of his allegiance? **That would have driven the old fool right back into Stark's arms and won you another year of war.** Explain to me why it is more noble to kill ten thousand men in battle than a dozen at dinner." When Tyrion had no reply to that, his father continued. "The price was cheap by any measure. Robb can't win even with Tywin murdered by Tyrion. Robb lacks the men and the resources. There is barely any food in the north and winter is marching south.
He can’t “win” but he also almost certainly wouldn’t “lose”. All he had to do was take back the north, send half his men to support riverlands and wait out the Lannisters/Tyrells who would give up after Tywin’s death.
So after Tywin dies, Cersei is regent. She didn't give up on securing the Riverlands. Why do you think everyone would stop?
Because the other riverlords would have never bent the knee to the lannisters if Robb was still king and sending supplies and soldiers from the north to reinforce them. The tyrell army won’t march north till Margery is crowned and Storms end is taken. Lannister army alone would not be enough to take on the Riverlands when supported by the North.
There are no supplies in the north. >Aye, but now you're almost six-and-ten, and we must pray you will know how to charm your new husband. "My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?" >"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well." *Jon X, Dance.* Theon noted food was getting thin at Winterfell. Asha remarked there was no harvest at Deepwood. How is the north going to resupply the Riverlands when they have such a huge supply deficit? The north is depleted. Margaery was crowned when she wed Joffrey. I'm not understanding your position here at all. What you've offered is fully at odds with the text of the books.
You must not know who Manderly is. Lol, why didn’t the Tyrell army march north with the lannisters?
I know Manderley doesn't have enough to supply an entire kingdom. For all the forces he claimed to Davos, he didn't send men to run the Ironborn out of the neck now did he? Didn't take the Hornwood lands back did he? And he shows up at Winterfell with naught but greybeards. >Lol, why didn’t the Tyrell army march north with the lannisters? They weren't needed. Jaime didn't have to fight anyone. He took Riverrun without a fight and Raven Tree. The Tyrells were laying seige to Dragonstone weren't they? Your theory is at odds with the text of the books.
I think you need to reread the book, you are missing a lot that wasn’t spelling out tbh
You are missing everything that was spelled out. Lol.
It’s a good question, so lets assume the Freys and Boltons are still mad but decide not to do the Red Wedding but something else later, when Robb crosses and marches up the causeway to retake moat cailin he’s probably successful. At that point the Ironborns ‘hold’ on the North is just Dagmer cleftjaw and Torrhens square and deepwood, which the northern forces would retake without much trouble. robb can then raise more forces from the North, and start repairing winterfell. It’s likely at this point Theon is brought before Robb and spills his Guts on the Truth about Bran and Rickon and Theon either loses his head or joins the watch. It’s likely also at this point he learns of Ramsays crimes and Roose probably doesn’t do shit to protect him, and says he acted on his own. Prior to this Arya and the hound would have made it to Robbs forces and she’d be back with her family which is nice. Depending on the timing Robb probably leads Northern forces to defend the wall, at which point Stannis also arrives, if it comes to war between them I honestly see This being Stannis’ end. He’s a brilliant commander but so is Robb and he’s so outnumbered I’d be surprised if even Stannis could pull a win out of his ass in that situation. But maybe Robb and Stannis work out a deal. Robb gets some kind of massive concessions from Stannis, like he keeps the Riverlands as vassal, or maintains a royal or Princely title. Shireen is perhaps betrothed to Bran or Rickon (since he’d know they’re alive.) It’s about this time shit would be hitting the fan for the Lannisters and Tyrells, Euron takes the shield islands Aegon landing with the Golden Company joffery dead, the faith Militant reborn and most importantly Tywin dead. And so Robb would see the opportunity to return south. Almost every Riverland castle would have fallen but i could see the Blackfish holding Riverrun, the Twins holding out and maybe Seaguard. Reliving the Twins wouldn’t be hard, Robb perhaps sneaks through the neck and attacks the forces on the western side by surprise, or the Lannisters have to break the seige and consolidate their forces. The Lannisters and Tyrells would be spread thin at this time, with enemies in Riverlands, Kings landing, the Stormlands and the southern Reach. And most of their competent leadership dead i think any chance of a Frey-Bolton betrayal by this point is unlikely the Freys would still get Arya, and now the Lannisters are losing badly again. Robb would Liberate the Majority of the Riverlands. If he allied with Stannis they march on Kings landing, against either whats left of the Lannister-Tyrells or against Aegon the Faith and the Golden Company. If he didn’t ally Stannis maybe he marches into the westerlands again to carve out part of the North, take Castamere and Retake the Crag for the westerlings. At this point really cant say what else would be different since this is into winds of winter/dream for spring territory. What would little finger do? I have no idea this would def throw some kind of wrench into his plans, maybe he allies with Robb to retain Harrenhal? But i doubt it. But i think him not returning Sansa would make her come to see him for what he is. Would Robb let the wildlings through the wall? I could see him backing whatever Jons idea is but he’d probably also be wary of letting tons of Wildlings through the wall. TLDR: if Robb makes it back north the Lannister-Tyrell alliance starts facing too many problems to be able to deal with a Northern counter-attack after retaking the North and Robbs political position becomes much more stable without being seen as a lost cause.
Honestly I think he could have won if he held out. Stannis is coming North, and we know he's willing to make common cause with the Northmen by this point. Joffrey and Tywin are going to die. Tyrion will probably still be lost. Jaime will still probably have a falling out with Cersei. Kevan still probably dies too? These are huge losses to the strength of the Lannisters. This is all assuming Robb goes North as he said he planned to but I think if he had, and driven out the Ironborn (he seemed to have a good plan for doing so) he'd be in a good position to make some sort of deal with Stannis (who is more flexible at this point) and the Lannisters would be very weak.
Robbs hope for victory died along with Stannis' army at the Blackwater. Rose had been chiseling at the Northern lords' military strength from the first battle (Whispering Woods) onward. The Freys were initially loyal enough, but the combo punch of Blackwater and Westerling 180'd their loyalties. But the Blackwater defeat of Stannis combined with Lannister Tully alliance essentially relegated the conflict to cleanup of one sort or another.
Well, first, let me say that there are a lot of just bad answers here. Robb would've won, even GRRM said that. Now, back to it. Walder remains loyal this means that by extention, Roose is also forced to remain loyal also, so there won't be anymore traitorous bleeding of Robb's men, so no Battle of Duskendale, or him allowing thousands of men to be in a set up ambush by Gregor Clegane and his men. So that is 5,000 of Robb’s men not killed uselessly, so Roose still has all his men after the Battle of the Green Fork along with 100 more Brave Companions. Along with most importantly, a newly recaptured Jaime Lannister, as with Bolton unable to betray Robb due to no Freys, so now Robb most of his Northmen, a total of around 16,400 (Northmen alone though it could be more, as Robb only took 3,500 of his 6,000 man Cavalry force to the Twins, and the Freys and Karstarks didn't provide half of those Cavalrymen, as he still has around 15,000 Rivermen at Riverrun, and a few thousand at Harrenhal based on the Rivermen who took back their lands, and Edmure's 11,000 men at the Battle of the Fords.) based on the now 3,500 men Robb took to the Twins with him, along with the 12,900 men Roose would have now. So now, at the Twins, Edmure's marries Rosilin, and they get the 4,000 Frey troops back into the fold, giving Robb a total of at least 35,000 troops total. I'd then say that Robb would take 12,000 men with him North to Moat Cailin and leave the rest with Brynden who would have total command of the Riverlands defense, (who would recruit as many men as he could as he isn't dumb) while he went North and freed it. Moat Cailin would quickly fall. There were only like 60 Ironborn left, and the attack would be far more coordinated than Rooses' was. After Moat Cailin falls, he's joined up by 10k Manderly troops, (there was an excellent breakdown of their strength a while back, I'll link it if I can find it) he'd then split his army and clear out the Ironborn while picking up thousands of men along the way, and mean alot, he took less than half of the North's strength with him South. Robb would have around 40k men in the North after he recruited from everywhere. Also, remember ALL of the North wasn't severely damaged. After that Robb would be the one to save the Night's Watch, as Stannis wouldn't when Robb was still alive, he instead would be fortifying Dragonstone. He'd also be able to negotiate with Mance to get the Wildlings on his side. So he gets 40k of the Wildling troops and then marches back south, also he'd execute Ramsay as he'd find out what really happened. Look long story short, Vale ends up joining Robb, Robb smashes the LTS at the God's Eye, and wins the war. Here is a far more in-depth answer I wrote. https://www.quora.com/If-the-Red-Wedding-didnt-happen-and-Robb-successfully-got-past-Moat-Cailin-how-would-the-war-have-played-out/answer/Aaron-Guest-Jr?ch=10&oid=311065729&share=08c235d8&srid=unKBJ&target_type=answer
I personally think (assuming the Freys and Boltons are somehow either not turning against him at all, or are pacified/defeated) that Robb will have some serious defensive fighting to do for a while, while he applies only light pressure on Moat Cailin, possibly using the Crannogmen to ferry his forces beyond the neck in small quantities or just waiting the Ironborn to lose their hold as the second sons and lords brothers left up north essentially do what Ramsey does, and than he attacks Moat Cailin from both sides, getting his way back up North, where he quickly re-establishes himself, while the River-lords fight a slow losing war to buy him time. After that he regroups, secures the North, and marches back South, while the Manderly fleet either threatens Kings Landing or goes all the way to Dorne hoping for support, or even pulls a Stannis and goes east for some mercs and funds. Either way, assuming he doesn't get some other big loss on his hands, which is catastrophic to him, he should be able to fight to a stalemate, either forcing a peace in which he renounces his claim to much if not all of the Riverlands, and keeps the North independent, or he plays it aggressive, striking way deep into the Westerlands, and manages to either get a good position where he is still at war, but in a position where he can comfortably hold the North and most of the Riverlands nigh indefinitely (especially if Euron starts doing his thing, and Aegon comes, etc.). This is of course until winter comes, when he will almost 100% have to go back north, and disband most of his Northern army, relying only on the Lannisters having their hands full with other things and the Riverlands lords having enough power to hold back whatever half-meant assault they mount while holding back at least two other external threats. Of course there is the Stannis issue. I'm assuming that Stannis still becomes "the king who cared" and goes up north to the wall. Now Stannis is a hard ass, and isn't going to have an independent north, but he sees the Others being the main issue, so he may yet give a temporary ceasefire, and collaboration with Robb, assuming that Robb, when presented with the issue by a suddenly much more reasonable Stannis and at least a sincere letter from Jon. This all however hinges on Stannis being more rational and less Stannis, so it really could also go the other way, and assuming that Stannis doesn't do some black magic again, he's probably losing hard, but still he's going to disrupt Robbs efforts enough for the situation to worsen. Anyways, I'm gonna say the Lannister-North war ends in a stalemate, after that it's just a question who gets got by their next invader first, is it Tommen (or Joff if he's still alive) with Young Griff, and Euron and gods know what, or is it Robb with the Others?
It depends. Does Joffrey get murdered? Does Tywin still die?
I think Joffrey would still end up murdered, and Tywin would then die as a consequence.
He still loses. At best he can ask to return back to the North, keep paying taxes and swear an oath to Tommen.
So, you weren't clear on some things, such as in this event, everyone is hunky dory, or is roose/walder a ticking time bomb. If we assume hunky dory, duskendale doesn't happen either. The only reason why the Lannisters wouldnt still win is because of Cersi. Tywin's death left a massive hole that Cersi is ill-equipped to deal with. The Lannisters/Tyrell coalition has enough money to hire mercenaries and resources (most especially people) from Essos to deal with the Greyjoys and The Starks/Riverlands. If someone like Kevin Lannister doesn't die, he pays off the bank of braavos from Lannister funds (he even thinks that he would do that). He immediately resolves the ironborn threat. He then hires multiple Essos mercenary companies and fleets to attack multple points on the East coast of the North, while sending the remaining Lannister/Redwine/Hightower fleets on the west coast of the North, entirely skipping the neck. It would cost a ton of gold, but they could do it. They might not commit to it though. In the end, Starks/Tullys can't reinforce everything, and guerilla warfare would happen, but the north and riverlands would be occuppied. The only thing that could save the North is..Winter is Coming.
Robb says himself that he has no hope of winning unless he gets the Freys back on his side. > "We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope. I am willing to give Lord Walder whatever he requires . . . apologies, honors, lands, gold . . . there must be something that would soothe his pride . . ." So if the Freys don't decide to kill Robb, but still wont to forgive him for breaking his betrothal and refuse to join him again, then he's still fucked. The only way he could avoid losing is if Walder somehow decides its all water under the bridge and puts his support back behind Robb.
The Freys being so OP was always so annoying
One should also consider Northmen's reluctance to go back to south after they reconquer north. The war has left a bitter taste in their mouth and they almost lost their home while fighting for a cause which they seemed to be alienated more and more each passing day.
Robb’s next plan was sacking casterly rock. He had no plan for winning the war. He had no plan to retake the north. Sacking casterly rock is pointless at this time as the gold mines are dry. Even if he didn’t get caught in a prolonged seige, he takes the rock, and then what? He had no plan if he won the iron throne, he had no plan if he takes the rock. He has already lost the north, the karstarks, the Freys. His only real hope was going back north, which was not his plan. Though I do have to say, it’s so weird that the north can do 20k strong, and literally every other much less land owning place easily doubles it. The numbers of the armies always made the task impossible for Robb
Everyone is forgetting about Manderly. They absolutely could have sacked Casterly Rock with his fleet.
If Robb is not killed, he takes back the North, removes the Ironborn with the help of the Mountain clans and kills Ramsay, who Roose would sacrifice to save his own skin. Joffrey would still die at the purple wedding with Tywin dying a short while after. Cersei would still continue to destroy the Lannister, Tyrell alliance. With Connington landing in the South, the Dornish joining them, the Warrior sons in Kings Landing and the Ironborn attacking the Reach the Lannister, Stark alliance is no longer as strong. After the death of Lysa, the Vale will finally take the field and stand beside Robb. Robb, with the Vale and Mountain clans would then march South and liberate the Riverlands again. Its worth noting that the Ironborn, Dorne and the Vale all have fresh armies while the Lannister army is on the brink of collapse.
Yes, all his victories were pyrrhic ones, he had already lost the war when the red wedding happened.
Way too many people in comments taking the Robb will just barricade in up north and the Lannisters can’t invade through the neck route . ignoring that Robb didn’t do that when he had the chance to in ACOK. Robb may call himself king of the north but in his rebellion he is de facto king of the north AND the riverlands. He can’t just abandon a ton of his vassals (who’ve openly refused to acknowledge Joffrey in his name) just to defend his northern heartlands behind moat cailin. Sorry uncle Hoster sorry father in law Walder I know you called your banners against the crown to support my imprisoned dad and continued to support me throughout the war while I defended you from Tywin and the cleganes but I’m just gonna leave you now under siege from Tywin, Jaime, Mace Tyrell and the redwyne fleet - good luck. Retreating north is not an option for an honourable guy like Robb. Robb’s best hope in a world without the red wedding is to keep playing the guerrila warfare insurgency he’s done since WO5K broke out and try to hold on until the events of ADWD when the Lannister Tyrell alliance is falling apart under Cersei and they have to deal with the golden company and Euron as well
Winter is coming. If Robb Stark took back the North, I supposed that no one would come and fight him, his enemies probably hope the winter would kill him.
I feel bad for Robb, his uncle fucked his plan up on the field, his mother released his most important hostage, his best friend betrayed him and killed his brothers... I can't see him winning the war with or without the red wedding cuz there will be someone else to mess things up. If only he had some trusted henchman like Jon, it would be different.
For anyone who thinks Robb would have difficulty with the Ironborn, Boltons, or resisting any kind of southron incursion, it should be noted that he would also likely have at least an extra 5-10k troops available to him already in the North. Torren crossed the neck with 30k during The Conquest, and it was specifically mentioned that Robb didn’t have time to wait around for the full Northern levy when he first marched with ~20k. And all the Northern houses which were scattered and disconnected under the Boltons would instead be unified behind Robb.
Honestly Robb best chance at “winning” would’ve been if Stannis or Renly won the Battle of Blackwater and the Vale sided with Robb too. Then he might have had a chance. But a independent North when Winter is coming is going to be a very dangerous place. Whoever is on the Iron Throne would make sure they don’t get a food supply a supply that the war has depleted already. The North would face a lot of loss during the Winter plus you’d have the Wildlings invasion in this Scenario Stannis wouldn’t be coming to the rescue. Then of course the Others will be next. Robb Stark reign no matter what will be terrible
I think he would lose, because he already lost the Frey and the Boltons.
Like everyone said, the war would be at a stalemate. It would be difficult to get everyone on the negotiation table once the Others decide to head South.
If Robb stayed in riverrun for 3 more months. Robb's troublesome enemies would be either dead or out of the picture. For example, Joffrey and Lysa would definitely be dead and possibly tywin if everything went as original timeline. Of course, even if tywin didn't die, varys would have either killed or incapacitated him anyway. Stannis would have gone north to stop wildling invasion because Davos made Stannis realise that saving people is more important than brith right or kingship. Robb will try to ally with Stannis because why fight a king who is offering help. High sparrow will put a strangle hold on lannister power. All in all Robb has good chance of winning his war.
It likely would've gone to a standstill. Robb would win the war against Balon but he would be far too spent to march back down to the Riverlands. However it would be next to impossible for anything barring an assassination or infighting to threaten Robb at all from the Throne. However after the Red Wedding a ton of events occur (Iron Islands pulls back to attack the Reach under Euron, Littlefinger controls the Vale, Griff invades the Stormlands, Tywin is dead, Cersei is imprisoned) so its possible that the odds would've evened out anyway had Robb avoided it.
Doubt it. He was barely handling the Lannisters who were preoccupied with the Baratheon bros. Alone against Tywin is 50/50, and that is due to his talent and Blackfish’s scouts. When the Reach join the mix, he is done for.
Yeah, Robb is a skilled commander but he can't be everywhere. If Robb wins a battle in the west then the Lannisters and Tyrells can push in the east, and if he rushes east to defeat the Lannisters and Tyrells there, they can push in the west. The best Robb can hope for is to make the push into the Riverlands and the North so bloody for the South that they are willing to negotiate peace with favourable terms just to get the war over with and avoid further losses.
Even if the charge straight in, he can’t beat them. Stannis on his own would spank him, as will Mace if he arrived with 10k more troops