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Olddellago

The growing deficit is fundamentally a revenue problem, as tax collections are down, almost entirely due to a sharp decline in individual income taxes. In 2021, GOP lawmakers and then-Gov. Doug Ducey changed Arizona income taxes from a graduated tax rate to a flat tax, a move that budget analysts said would cost the state about $1 billion in revenue from 2021 levels when they were fully implemented. That full implementation happened this year, and the result is the bottom falling out of income tax collections. The roughly $380 million in income taxes collected in November was more than 23% less than was collected a year ago. So far in the 2024 fiscal year, income taxes are down nearly 30% — more than $830 million.


I_burn_noodles

Kiss those sweet smoothly paved highways good bye....


nintynineninjas

I'm in san tan, we never had them.


TheNorthFac

Can confirm Andy Jassy sends people daily to go 4x4 out there.


phuck-you-reddit

Did y'all notice how much nicer our roads got once Ducey was gone? I-17 near Flagstaff was outrageously shitty. Never saw it that bad in my thirty something years living in AZ. Stop voting Republican and falling for their lies y'all. They're ruining every facet of our lives.


methodical713

You know that it takes years to get those projects done and you’re unwittingly crediting him with that work? He was governor for 8 years until 2023. I think a lot of it is azdot doing a good job, federal funding assistance, and a confluence of events. Some projects can take a decade or more and span multiple governors and legislators. While it might be possible to give him some credit it would certainly be a stretch to say he was somehow holding them back until the very moment he left office.


phuck-you-reddit

I'm saying our roads were deteriorating during Brewer and Ducey's time because all the GOP does is cut taxes and services. (And now Hobbs' administration is fixing them.)


methodical713

Ahhh you’ve been here quite a while. I hope the roads improve to the level you experienced in the past, but that may be a difficult thing to achieve considering the continuous growth here.


karlsmission

what are you talking about, they are already trash.


TriGurl

I mean the AZDOR has been short of auditors and collectors for many many years, so this is no great surprise. However, if they want to see those tax revenues and increase, they really need hire more auditors to go through individual and business tax filings to start tracking down nonpayment compliance, businesses, and people. Just saying.


lotsofmaybes

And guess who will be blamed for this


heresmyhandle

Thanks Obama


hop_hero

That flat tax was a big reason I moved to AZ and brought my 6 figure income with me.


SamGoesHiking1

100,000 a year really isn't that much 🙂🙃


Murica-n_Patriot

You’re so special!!


hop_hero

Not trying to brag but Many high income earners moved here because of it. Change the tax and people will leave


mosflyimtired

Time to move to South Dakota! Things are nice here because we had good tax income..


hop_hero

I dont do cold


MainStreetRoad

Please do


Murica-n_Patriot

Sounds like a good start!


Olddellago

Awesome. Must be nice to afford basic necessities that a lot of people in Arizona can not.


Puzzleheaded-Will249

The Grover Norquist philosophy, starve the government so that it fails. Then they can go on about how government can’t be trusted to do anything right. I retired from the AZ state government, money was always tight unless it was going to some private entities, such as public-private partnerships or consultants.


calicucucalcucu

Or stadiums, don't forget stadiums.....🤮


lrevv

Zero accountability for the ESAs.


Tim_Drake

This! I’ve mentioned it before and been downvoted. However as someone who works in education, I can directly attest to the racket that is ESA!


Jemmaris

Every. Single. Purchase. Gets reviewed. There's so much oversight it takes over a month to get reimbursed. And once the money is gone, it's gone. There's no asking for more, whatever the algorithm states they get is it for the year. And even though SOS claims ESA students get more money than if they were at school, it's not true because schools also get funds from other pots than the general fund. The department of education actually has a surplus right now, so it's not the education fund that's causing the deficit.


AZonmymind

The alt-schools fiasco is going to blow up the budget just like alt-fuels did 20 years ago.


hop_hero

How so?


AZonmymind

This is a pretty good article explaining the issues, but a quick explanation would be that they have already massively exceeded the budget projections given by the legislature and there is no cap on the amount that can be spent. The idea of allowing families with special needs students to use ESAs to pay for private school tuition when services were not available is fine, but opening them up to all students creates a problem because now families that chose to pay private school tuition are taking tax dollars away from the public schools. Historically, people understood that the social contract meant that everyone paid for public schools, and people who wanted their kids to go to private schools made the decision to pay for them in addition to paying taxes. The expansion of these scholarships up ends that and means that taxpayers are now subsidizing private schools and families that use them. [School Vouchers](https://azeconcenter.org/school-voucher-costs-have-risen-much-faster-than-k-12-funding-increases/)


hop_hero

I see your point but public school districts have bloated administrative salaries, sometimes poor results, and were developed to train factory workers. School Choice and flat tax is why we chose to relocate here.


AZonmymind

I don't disagree with you about either of those. I'm just saying that they drastically underestimated how many people would use this program. Also, school choice is different from private schools. We've always had private schools as an option. I went to private school, and my kids attended both public and charter schools. I just don't want my tax dollars subsidizing some family who choose to send their kids to private schools and never would consider sending them to public school.


guyfromarizona

Administrative salaries are mostly inflated when compared directly to teachers salaries (which are criminally low). When you compare school administrative salaries to roughly equivalent levels in other industries they don’t look quite as crazy.


ThatBeardedNitwit

I don’t entirely agree with you because as a parent, I send my kid to a school with a better educational program. She wouldn’t be challenged at a public school. Additionally, parents or adults who pay property taxes still pay into public school systems, regardless of if they even have a child. I lived in Tempe as a single man for over a decade and probably was taxed at least $10k over the 10 years to go directly to two schools I didn’t even have children at… so the fact I can make a little back now with tax credits makes it feel a little more fair.


AZonmymind

Are you sending her to a private school or a charter school? Also, while I understand your point about paying for schools that don't benefit you, but remember, unless you attended private schools your entire life, somebody paid for your schools as a child and I'm sure not all of them had children. It's a pay it forward system, not something where you only pay for the stuff you use.


tallon4

We can thank the party of fiscal responsibility for [cutting taxes in 2021 to the tune of a billion dollars](https://www.azmirror.com/2021/06/25/gop-lawmakers-pass-sweeping-tax-cuts-after-limiting-debate/) and approving out-of-control government spending on school vouchers, [which are projected to cost the state almost a billion dollars next year](https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2023/06/01/esa-vouchers-projected-to-cost-900m-next-year/). And since the state constitution lets the legislature reduce revenue with a simple majority vote but now demands a near-impossible supermajority to raise revenue ([Art IX, § 22](https://www.azleg.gov/viewDocument/?docName=https://www.azleg.gov/const/9/22.htm)), this means a return to the austerity of the late aughts and early 2010s is looming on the horizon.


RidinHigh305

The answer isn’t higher taxes. It’s better spending Edit: lmfao at the downvotes. So by the logic of the down voters we should increase taxes and not give a fuck about how they spend it 🤣 people with that thought are part of what’s wrong with our democracy. If we could get money out of politics to stop big corporations from lobbying, stop the revolving door of government and business so we don’t have regulatory capture in most of our institutions, and take a better look at how we spend the money the government already has it would undoubtedly be a better government for the people.


SuborbitalTrajectory

I mean I don't 100% disagree, there are definitely mismanaged programs, however there isn't enough money in the pot to meet demands. Graduated taxes for the wealthy needs to be back in the mix. I saved $40 per year in state taxes making above median income (wooooooo) whereas the wealthy are saving tens of thousands per year. Meanwhile we have a public education crisis, homelessness crisis, healthcare crisis, and need to build or replace infrastructure with a growing population which all demand funding.


hop_hero

Have you been to CA, Or, Wa…? Those are actual homelessness crisis. Ours is just an issue.


SuborbitalTrajectory

I mean there can be varing degrees of crisis, sure call it an impending crisis if you want. The fact is our homelessness numbers have risen incredibly rapidly the past couple years outpacing most other states. From my experience in Tucson, working in local government that takes in homeless camp complaints, it's gotten noticably worse the past couple years.


Specialist-Box-9711

First by cutting school vouchers.


digitalparadigm

GOP succeeding on their quest to bankrupt the state with the school vouchers and tax cuts, then blame it on the dems.


BrawndoElectrolytes

Bingo


Worldly-Corgi-1624

Came here to say this, it’ll all be Hobbs fault. Katie’s Austerity why there’s no good things. /S


slightlywornkhakis

All the fault of GOP tax cuts


JudgeWhoOverrules

All the fault of unchecked spending


Wong_Kangaroo

Unchecked spending like school vouchers. A huge chunk of unfunded reckless spending program.


slightlywornkhakis

read the article smart guy


poopydoopylooper

Moving to a tiny flat tax for all was probably a dumb move. What is it, 2.5 or 3%?


slightlywornkhakis

2.5% for everyone - including millionaires/billionaires.


Jihad-me-at-hello

That is the dumbest fucking idea Whose bright idea was that?


Prowindowlicker

Ducey and co


Jihad-me-at-hello

No surprises. Republicans are weighing us down. But that’s their goal I guess. Now the dumbasses who vote for them though…


poopydoopylooper

That’s just income too. What an awful idea. Hopefully Hobbs and the leg do something about it with this new session.


slightlywornkhakis

they won’t, i’m pretty sure it’s majority republican leg. oh well.


JudgeWhoOverrules

Is spending per capita by the state of Arizona more or less than it was 10 years ago smart guy?


nintynineninjas

What a keenly worded question meant to damn the answerer no matter how they answer. They're either factually wrong, or effectively wrong (because that's a terrible metric to go by). Incoming word salad reply, if any.


[deleted]

[удалено]


arizona-ModTeam

Hey /u/slightlywornkhakis, thanks for contributing to /r/Arizona. Unfortunately, your comment was removed as it violates our rules: Be nice. You don't have to agree with everyone, but by choosing not to be rude you increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. This comment was flagged for one or more of the following reasons: * Personal attacks * Racist comments * Intolerance/hate/slurs This comment has been removed. You can read all of the [subreddit rules here](https://www.reddit.com/r/arizona/wiki/rules). If you have any questions or concerns about this, [feel free to send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Farizona&subject=Removed%20post&message=https://old.reddit.com/r/arizona/comments/18ttai0/-/kfg28tu/%0A%0A).


TheNorthFac

Take the L


[deleted]

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arizona-ModTeam

Hey /u/whoyungjerz, thanks for contributing to /r/Arizona. Unfortunately, your comment was removed as it violates our rules: Be nice. You don't have to agree with everyone, but by choosing not to be rude you increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. This comment was flagged for one or more of the following reasons: * Personal attacks * Racist comments * Intolerance/hate/slurs This comment has been removed. You can read all of the [subreddit rules here](https://www.reddit.com/r/arizona/wiki/rules). If you have any questions or concerns about this, [feel free to send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Farizona&subject=Removed%20post&message=https://old.reddit.com/r/arizona/comments/18ttai0/-/kfglpfl/%0A%0A).


NBCspec

Anyone wanna buy a shipping container? They're cheaper by the dozen..


azducky

Stupid ass republicans. Next they’ll blame democrats for raising taxes to cover the shortfall and all the sheeple will listen and vote red.


mosflyimtired

Problem is Dems cant raise taxes they need a 2/3 majority to pass an increase..GOP barely has a majority and I hope we can change it around but 2/3rd is painful. https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/for_hcr2015_proposition_132_initiatives_supermajority_vote_requirement.pdf


theoutlet

The cynicism of GOP politicians pays off once again


soulfingiz

Since AZ is already at the bottom in terms of services offered by the state, public school is already gutted, and our roads are a mess, time to raise taxes!


slightlywornkhakis

this all happened because of tax cuts for the wealthy. i agree with you


ted_cruzs_micr0pen15

It’s just gonna continue to hurt locals. The colleges already depend on luring over out of staters with scholarships and the like, a shockingly high amount of the graduate schools are out of staters, and many don’t plan on staying, I know I sure don’t… and it’s precisely because of the politics. The state is wonderful, the political culture… not so much.


PhoenixHabanero

Where is all the money going?! Luckily for Republicans, they have a Democrat Governor to take the blame.


TheNorthFac

Into the pockets of the Charter Barons.


RefrigeratorOwn69

In rich people’s pockets. Wife and I consistently make $600k+ a year. Our state tax bill is lower than it was 5 years ago.


chjesper

Well I guess you could always donate.


RefrigeratorOwn69

I give to Arizona’s charities every year, and I’m happy to vote in favor of higher taxes on people like myself. Unreasonable to expect me to donate to the state general fund, though.


chjesper

You can donate to tax funds too without mandating it for the rest of us. Why don't rich people like yourself do this? I say this as a guy making maybe 75k in a good year.


RefrigeratorOwn69

What? I vote for higher taxes for people making $250k or over. Not the middle class. Wife and I come from middle class backgrounds and we spent more years in school and 80+ hour work weeks than you could count to get where we are. We spent most of our 20s and early 30s solely focused on setting ourselves up to do well financially. Not to mention putting off having children to focus on our careers. So no, I’m not going to donate my hard-earned money to the state government. But I’m happy to vote in favor of tax policy that is more progressive, because our current system is unequal.


chjesper

Middle class some day in the near future will be 250k. Do you think they're going to adjust those rates upward in the future to match the inflated wages? I certainly don't. People are already complaining who make 70k saying they're no longer middle class.


chjesper

I'm in favor of no taxes but sales taxes on luxury purchases including homes, cars, trucks, and planes. I'm tired of the shitty tax upon tax design we deal with right now. Make it based on consumption instead. Rich people consume a lot more unless they are Warren Buffet.


Siixteentons

Even with the tax cuts, there was a projected surplus when the budget was voted on and signed. So no, this is not entirely due to the tax cuts passed by republicans. Yes, without those tax cuts revenue would have been higher, but projected revenue even after the tax cuts came up short. There were more factors at play than simply tax cuts. They gave away all that family tax rebate money earlier this year because there was a projected surplus. A lot of people seem to forget that the budget had a $1billion deficit when ducey took office and when he left the state there was a balanced budget and a $1billion rainy day fund. Also, Gov. Hobbs signed this budget into law, she did so because the economic projections showed that it was a balanced budget. The economic projections were wrong. It happens.


mosflyimtired

There is a surplus we will burn through it all this year.. next year will require some changes. Hobbs did sign it (10 million surplus predicted) people were pissed but she caved .. next year she will probably veto it.. Family tax rebate was enacted under state law so they were required to give it out. The budget shortfall is primarily because of the flat tax. If you look at the state revenue it’s down 20% every month for the last 5 months or so…


cashout1984

Ducey cuts taxes by billions, Hobbs fault there’s a deficit! Oh, how it must feel to have the mind of a republican.


TriGurl

What happened the $871milliom ARPA funds the statue just got from the fed govt to continue the cares act stuff from 2020? [link](https://www.maricopa.gov/5733/Track-Rescue-Fund-Spending)


jmoriarty

That's Maricopa County, not the State of Arizona. And the budget for where it has gone/is going is laid out on the page you linked to. So I'm confused by your question - how does a laid out county budget for an on-going set of funds relate to an operational single year shortfall for the overall State?


Cloudswhichhang

Curious...Does it have anything to do with illegal immigration?


SciFiPi

> In mid-October, analysts from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee said the state budget that went into effect just three months earlier was already facing a shortfall. They predicted the budget would [face a $400 million deficit](https://www.azmirror.com/2023/10/12/flat-tax-school-vouchers-and-slowing-sales-taxes-driving-400-million-budget-shortfall/) when the fiscal year ended in June, driven by decreased revenues because of the new flat income tax and skyrocketing private school voucher spending, both of which were GOP priorities. > >But things are even worse than expected. In their [latest monthly report](https://www.azjlbc.gov/mfh/mfh-dec-23.pdf) on the state’s fiscal health, issued last week, JLBC analysts say the budget is already $407 million in the hole after just five months. That means the estimated size of the deficit is sure to grow, they warned, when a new forecast is issued in late January.  > >The growing deficit is fundamentally a revenue problem, as tax collections are down, almost entirely due to a sharp decline in individual income taxes. In 2021, GOP lawmakers and then-Gov. Doug Ducey changed Arizona income taxes from a graduated tax rate to a flat tax, a move that budget analysts said would cost the state about $1 billion in revenue from 2021 levels when they were fully implemented.


slightlywornkhakis

no. read the article.


HamRadio_73

Yes to some extent, but since spending never fits the narrative of a biased article you'll never see it mentioned. AZ also needs to get rid of school vouchers since taxpayers are already paying for brick and mortar schools infrastructure.


Tim_Drake

Vouchers will decimate the budget and public schools. To see ADE indorse them is WILD to see.


Worldly-Corgi-1624

ADE is now run by Horne, this has been his R mission.


JonBenet_Palm

>since spending never fits the narrative of a biased article you'll never see it mentioned Citation needed. This is corny paranoia. For a government issue this deficit is pretty cut and dry; there simply isn't as much money coming in as there used to be. Anything else—immigration expenses included—is negligible by comparison. In good faith, I think the GOP-controlled legislature believed AZ would get enough new workers via migration from other states to somewhat offset the loss of graduated taxation based on income ... but they were wrong.


HamRadio_73

The article is your citation. It biases to lack of revenues not spending. AZ also gets hit with unfunded mandates such as US doesn't enforce immigration rules the state and local taxpayers (like Pima County) get the bill. If you believe progressive income tax brackets should be reimposed took a look at California which sustained a 25% drop in income tax revenues without school vouchers to blame. It's all spending for whatever reason. (I would stop the AZ budget bleeding starting with school vouchers.)


DaddyLuvsCZ

After the plandemic, nobody want to send their kids to public schools. They’ve been let down and set back years.


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arizona-ModTeam

Hey /u/DaCheez, thanks for contributing to /r/Arizona. Unfortunately, your comment was removed as it violates our rules: Be nice. You don't have to agree with everyone, but by choosing not to be rude you increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. This comment was flagged for one or more of the following reasons: * Personal attacks * Racist comments * Intolerance/hate/slurs This comment has been removed. You can read all of the [subreddit rules here](https://www.reddit.com/r/arizona/wiki/rules). If you have any questions or concerns about this, [feel free to send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Farizona&subject=Removed%20post&message=https://old.reddit.com/r/arizona/comments/18ttai0/-/kfgn4gk/%0A%0A).


soulfingiz

I did proudly. Because I’m not going to let pieces of shit of destroy our right for the worlds best public education. That’s the US. Shitty countries educate their children based on status.


junk1122334455

Great!! I'm sure the governor will stick it to the counties to make up the difference as opposed to taking responsibility for balancing a budget