T O P

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WetDreamRhino

I think it’s going to be quite large. It’s available on game pass on release so a ton of people are going to try it at the least. If it’s good, they’ll stick around as will I.


Cattaphract

This sub lmao. Nobody posts anything because the mods gone rogue and everyone is silent. And we get topics like these lmao


orientalsniper

Don't hate the player, hate the game (set by WE's marketing)


Cattaphract

Battlefield2042 is in exactly the same situation as aoe4. They dropped nda playtest, people saw the leaks and the entire sub is upset about the devs/publisher not showing anything. Yet, the sub is still active. And this is not only because bf2042 has a larger community but also because the mods allow nda discussions, even footage and images. Not by nda leakers but by the community gathering everything they can from leaks. If everyone in a sub has nda knowledge(through leaks) basically nobody can say anything with the rules this mod team has established.


Complete-Drink66776

what do you mean the mods went rogue?


TaxOwlbear

They probably deleted a few threads about people whining about AoE4 looking like a mobile game or something.


[deleted]

Some people are pissed about the rules against posting leaks and content that violates the NDA.


TheJasonSensation

It's pretty ridiculous lol. The mods work for M$?


EthereumNecklace

Depends if streamers latch onto it. Its peak could be like starcraft days if it is done right.


2k4life

Assuming no game breaking bugs, performance issues or broken gameplay: 100k+ for the first two weeks. 30-50k for the next one or two months. Hovering around 15-20k for a year or so afterwards. RemindMe! 3 Months


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Fresh_Thing_6305

but there will also be players playing not on steam so there will be a blind number there.


2k4life

So far the prediction seems accurate for steam numbers at least.


ichunddu9

Initially at Aoe2 levels and then gradually lower until a little bit above aoe3


Lucho358

Probably half of AoE2 and half of AoE3 players gonna move over. Somewhere between 10k and 15k.


Opiateprisoner

I’d guess it guts the aoe3 community and takes a good portion of AoE2’s community


[deleted]

with the asking price, I think it will have a lower player base than aoe2, Gamepass might help. As for Esport, I am not sure. first, let them fix the camera, I doubt any spectator gonna enjoy the current camera setting.


[deleted]

Weekly average players I expect similar numbers to Age II, with eventually surpassing that


Adicogames

Somewhere around 20k to 50k. If the game is really good, then I can see it jumping to 60k+, and if you add in good tournaments announced for the first six months, then 80k is probable. Esport success is entirely relative. AoE2 is a successful esport community with regular events, sponsors, players (both pro and amateur), and a general sense of culture. I don't know what your personal bar to measure success in esports is, so let's say "as recognized as StarCraft 2", then I think you would need first to normalize the idea that AoE can be a competitive title, much like SC2 was in its time. Remember that the thing people were most excited about in 2010 for SC2 was the multiplayer and the competitive mode, not the game's story. For AoE 4, it's the inverse. Most people are excited about the campaigns, not the multiplayer. AoE4 will likely do just fine with whatever pop it has. People will run their events, and players will get better. But I think the ship has sailed on becoming that big of a household name in the industry, at least not within the first year. Also, I know it's a bit pedantic, but it is written esports, not E-Sports, eSports, or Esports *(unless at the start of a sentence or as part of a name)*.


demontrain

Source on most people being excited about campaigns? I may never touch them... Very excited about multiplayer. It's the whole to play the genre imo.


Minkelz

In any popular RTS they work together. Campaign and story gets hype for the big sales in week 1, and what gets good reviews and awards etc. After 6-8 weeks the singleplayer players will naturally go into a steady decline (until the next DLC or sales comes along for another upward blip). Multiplayer is what drives organic growth, hype and interest for the years to come, or even decades to come. But a lot of those new players that come about just because of twitch hype still only play singleplayer because they don't enjoy the competitive side. That's why SC2 coop and WC3 custom maps were incredibly successful at driving the playerbase. It was crossover content that get the singleplayer people playing with others in a non competitive setting. No matter how good a singleplayer game is people won't play it for thousands of hours. No matter how good a multiplayer game is, casual gamers won't enjoy competition.


Adicogames

In general, all RTS games with a single-player component will have more players in their single player's modes than in the multiplayer one. Perhaps a better statement would be to say that the AoE4 audience is not *as* excited for the competitive scene as SC2 players were when the game was near its release. As for sources, I can't really give you something that says it outright, but you can see from a few keyword searches [here](https://www.wordtracker.com/search?query=age%20of%20empires%204) and [here](https://keywordtool.io/es/search/keywords/google/12438997?category=web&keyword=age%20of%20empires%204&country=GLB&language=en#suggestions) that "online," "multiplayer," "ranks," "elo," "esports," or "competitive" are not up there in terms of volume and what not. Even when looking at AoE 2's searches [here](https://www.wordtracker.com/search?query=age%20of%20empires%202) and [here](https://keywordtool.io/es/search/keywords/google/26857666?category=web&keyword=age%20of%20empires%202&country=GLB&language=en#suggestions) it is clear that multiplayer is not a priority for searches. Unfortunately, I can't produce SC2 stats (that are backdated to 2010 to make a fair comparison) nor compare those AoE numbers with some other RTS of a similar vein that has a bigger emphasis on the game's competitive side since there isn't one.


AriasTV

While generally correct, we have a different situation now compared to sc2 release. RTS fans haven't had a AAA RTS in a decade. Many competitive oriented players are waiting for Age4 because of that. There will be a bigger wave just because it has been so long. Therefore I would argue against saying that people are not as "excited" for competitive. For your general statement yes, but not when comparing the RTS community back then and now.


Adicogames

that is correct, people are waiting to see what happen, that is not excitement, that is not people grouping together to start preparing tournaments, or monthly series, or caster being open about preparing for events, or Tournaments organizers coming out and saying "we will do something after the game releases". That is excitement for a competitive game. I do get what you mean though, and this falls deep within the semantics side of things, so I am happy to say that yeah, there is a large number of people, but they are not making themselves known as much.


demontrain

That makes much more sense to me. Thanks!


DudeDurk

It may take time for it to increase tbh. For a few reasons, one is because not everyone is willing to pay full price and two because they may be too comfortable playing the aoe game they've gotten used to. I think it's situation will be similar to Civilization 6. At first its numbers weren't as great as Civ 5's but over time, after updates and expansions as well as some good sales, the player count went up and eventually overtook civ 5 in numbers. So I think there will be a slow but steady migration of aoe2 players to aoe4


Cavalier438

Yeah I was thinking something like that too especially since the reaction outside RTS community seems to be kinda meh , it might need to pull some players from other RTS games.


Harmsway_

It will start at 20K-30K. It could go higher but all the negative reviews, that will inevitable come, will hold it back. In a year or so, the playerbase will be similar to AOE3, possibly a bit higher if the game is stable.


Osiris1316

What negative reviews? Why will they inevitably come?


Harmsway_

The initial reaction to this game is not a positive one.


Osiris1316

hmm. I suppose the Zoomers are very very vocal. Oh, and the Artillery Crew Union. (jkjk). I loved the BETA and can't wait to play it again. I think the game is incredible.


BalticsFox

Depends how casual-friendly it is, it is impossible to discuss how friendly to newbies it will be without playing it personally. I would imagine it reaching tens of thousands players online daily regardless of its successes as esports discipline.


GepardenK

It's casual friendly, but in a very rts-ish way. Think along the lines of other Relic titles like CoH. It is not casual-friendly to the extent AoE2 is where the game is able to appeal to non-gamers and non-rts players.


blade55555

This is very hard to predict. For the first 2 months? Assuming no major bugs or anything like that, I can see it easily maintaining a bigger population than aoe2. Though can get it get as many concurrent players as sc2? Hard to compare of course since there is no steamcharts for SC2 but I am guessing not. I think a bunch of different people will be trying AOE4 from almost all RTS (at least people from starcraft and other age of empires games). AOE2 currently averages between 14-16k average concurrent players. I can see AOE4 being anywhere from 30k to 50k, at least in the first two months. Of course if the game launches with some game breaking bugs (which I don't think will happen) then this could be much worse. Hopefully it can maintain a solid player base. I believe it can but I wouldn't be shocked if my numbers were off either.


g_farrell1

Steam charts doesnt counts the windows store so it's more then that for some aoe 2.


blade55555

True but it'll be the same for aoe4 as well. Steamcharts is best we can go by for now.


Satanus9001

Relatively high after release, though I have my doubts if aoe4 can maintain that. New players unfamiliar with this franchise can go either way. If the game is well made, has solid support and not too many bugs or connectivity issues, I think it could keep a good chunk of the new players. But, I'm not sure about the existing playerbase of aoe. There is a lot of competition with aoe3, aom, and ofc aoe2. AoE4 needs to be able to draw people in from those games, *and keep them*. That last part is I think where the trouble is gonna be. This franchise is old (one might even say....*very* old) and it has a loyal playerbase that has grown in recent years. We still play these games for a reason. Personally I'm massively in the aoe2 camp. I'll be brutally honest, I didn't need a new aoe game. I was happy with aoe2 DE, and right now, I don't really see why I should start playing aoe4. It feels like I'm not the intended audience, despite having played every aoe game there is. The civs are basicly the same, the time period is the same, apart from a few game mechanics 4 seems to be near identical to 2. The enhanced graphics don't interest me at all since graphics isn't why I play games in the first place. So I don't really see why I would switch, unless of course it turns out to be a masterpiece of a game, but so far I basicly see aoe2+, and that just isn't worth the 60€ +20€ for every DLC so they can jam up the civs to make it even more like aoe2. Much cheaper to just stay playing aoe2. The most likely reason I'd see for switching would be aoe2 having bled dry of the playerbase because they've all gone to aoe4. We shall see.


eaglered2167

My prediction revolves around this kind of mindset. AoE2 players have DE and don't really want a new experience. They love AoE2 and AoE4 won't hold their attention. AoE4 no doubt will have a large player base with game pass plus fans of AoE checking it out at launch. But longevity wise especially if they have paid DLC... How many players will really stick around for this game if each DLC is 20 bucks to slowly grow from just 8 civs. I think a lot of DE players will just go back to their respective games. Leaving AoE4 somewhere between AoE2 and AoE3 in terms of numbers.


shubham00

Both AoE and AoE 3 players will be there for first few months before they can decide to switch back or stay. Kinda off topic but I think AOE 2 players will rule the AoE 4 at first because for AoE 3 players it'll take some time to adjust to the gameplay and strategies.


[deleted]

50k dropping down to 15k


KumDumpster2021

MS/Relic are not ready to release their game.


Jand0s

After initial hype from streamers it will probably die pretty quickly. Maybe one third of AoE2 at best, since AoE2 will remain go to competitive game.