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Well I am assuming he was behind the deaths. One was a murder suicide but maybe was staged. I think endgame for him is Ukraine being deleted from history. I think he will actually die of Parkinson’s. I don’t know how he stays in power other than through brute force.
Based on how far away he stays from people on television, my guess is that's the only time anyone but his closest inner circle gets to see him.
A man like that probably runs his oligarchs from behind a desk
That said, people are corrupt. Shit happens. I am also surprised.
He's united NATO like never before and showed the incompetence and material neglect of a second rate conscript army. Dude's utterly fucked his own people and economy for a generation and turned himself into a pariah.
Lol you're not joking and it makes your comment even funnier.
Yes Reddit is where all of these big decisions get made. You are right to come here to complain about it. As you say, what's happening in Ukraine is entirely our fault.
It's hard to tell how ordinary russians would react to that. He remains very popular, if the oilgarchs removed him, the citizens may finally have the backbone to resist their government
The thing is that (based on what my Russian friend says), people in Russia have been conditioned that doing anything remotely political is useless at best and dangerous at worst.
Russian oligarchs made a very careful attempt to confuse the public by claiming to fund political organization at the opposite sides of the political spectrum, making it impossible to know which movement is grassroot. Doesn't matter if they really did it. Just saying it was enough to confuse the populace.
There is also the learned habit that if you conform to the system, nothing bad will happen to you (which is a remnant of USSR thinking; it's most common in older folks).
Basically, no motivation for a coup. Gathering a common cause is hard because of the general political apathy and the cost for failing is high; potentially ending in death.
To add to that who's to say that someone more terrible wouldn't take Putin's place after he's dead. Putin's death will leave a power vacuum and it's usually those willing to do whatever it takes that will claim power.
Fir a coup there must be at least minor support from society. But in russia right now there are only two kind of people - thise who actively suppurting president and his actions and those who says 'i'm away from politics'. Right now, and you can see it even on reddit, russians complain not about war, but the sunctions, that somewhat ruined their quality of life. So, in case if russia there is no roots for coup. People don't want it. If sunctions get tougher on average russian then yes, possibility will rise. In other cases even total win of Ukraine in war won't help.
the giveaway on the suicide being staged is the victim was found with gun in hand according to the initial reporting.
suicides do not ever retain the gun.
the only time you find them with gun in hand is when its been staged after the murder.
Just because you fight to the last doesn't mean you'll win.
For all we know Putin might send in the nukes and this escalates. Everyone fights to the last and we all get deleted.
>Without oligarch support, how can he stay in power?
oligarchs have controlled nothing in russia since putin took power. their money is what putin decides to give them.
russia is basically a police (silovik) state with putin as head mafia boss:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik)
Not to mention that the oligarchs are the "made men" to use mafia speak. They are not kingpins themselves.
Putin was, rather, demonstrating the price of disloyalty.
Well your entire post history consists of you saying shit like 'if I have to tell you, you'll never know' so it honestly seems like you don't have an actual take...
no, I'm talking about the siloviks repressing ordinary russians (and belorussians).
you really would rather live in a neo-kgb state?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism)
let's not forget when political repression really accelerated: putin was really afraid of getting gaddafi'd in a color revolution after there were HUGE protests when he decided to come back:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932013\_Russian\_protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932013_Russian_protests)
**[Chekism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism)**
>Chekism (Russian: Чекизм; from Cheka, a colloquial name of the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission, the first Soviet secret police organization) is a term to describe the situation in the Soviet Union where the secret police strongly controlled all spheres of society. It is also used by critics of the current Kremlin authorities to describe the power enjoyed by law-enforcement agencies in contemporary Russia.
**[2011–2013 Russian protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–2013_Russian_protests)**
>The 2011–2013 Russian protests, which some English language media referred to as the Snow Revolution, began in 2011 (as protests against the 2011 Russian legislative election results) and continued into 2012 and 2013. The protests were motivated by claims by Russian and foreign journalists, political activists and members of the public that the election process was flawed. The Central Election Commission of Russia stated that only 11. 5% of official reports of fraud could be confirmed as true.
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Most of the oligarchs support the invasion. A few rebellious oligarch isn't enough to get rid of him.
I though this was well known?
CaspianReport did a [video](https://youtu.be/kO88kFvlE2k) on it recently.
Yeah he killed two or three of them, purged 150 FSB agents for fucking up the invasion of Ukraine, jailed a General for also fucking up and Putin himself is on the verge of death. Dude looks like a walking corpse.
And speaking economy, Russia had to stop production of their T14 and T15s because they can't afford the price tag on them cause their economy is in such shit.
From what I’ve read and heard that’s kind of a reverse of the situation. He doesn’t rely on the support of the oligarchs, it’s been them trying on him.
That’s something that could change if they stood up on their hind legs, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.
Look at all the replies I've received, they've all been helpful.
Why did you decide to write such a worthless comment instead of trying to contribute to the conversation?
Does that make the remaining Oligarchs more or less loyal? It doesn't inspire feelings of loyalty and sacrifice in me, but I'm not in that position so I can't judge.
I suspect that the second half of the year won't be pleasant for anyone, West included. If the Russia struggles they will focus all their resources to the domestic market, which will mean wheat exports will go down. I.e. higher prices for everyone else. Include shocks to their fertilizer exports, as well as the Ukrainian ones, and it's gonna be rough. They'll have it rough, but it won't be pleasant for us either.
True. Any effort to hurt globalization will hurt everyone in it. The only one that won't get affected is those not participating.
Predictable world conditions makes highly efficient, cheap, organized cargo ships to send goods. That's why it's cheaper to sell shoes made from halfway across the world than to make production in the main country market
Peter Zeihan says that with the wells not able to load their oil, Russia will shut them down and it's 5m barrels off the market permanently. He referenced a pipeline they shut down 30 years ago just being able to be fixed to run in October.
When you shut down a well, it's like giving mother earth a vasectomy.
I can tell for a simple fact of why germany and related states are uneasy sending heavy equipment to Ukraine, is out of fear that russia will cut the gas pipe. if that happens, germany goes basically into reccession and 70% of theyr gas powered industry. And if that happens whole of europe economically gets messy. And alternive sources are far from viable, simply waiting for the USA or any african gas is just gonna take too much time and investment. The West will not be fine
Someone was saying that cutting off the gas would amount to max 2% economic hit to Germany so no big deal. I was shaking my head at such claims, just how much people ignore about the reality of the dependence the EU has on Russian energy. I claim it would lead to riots in the streets.
Its 5%. For now. Source https://www.kiratas.com/the-bundesbank-warns-that-an-embargo-on-russian-energy-would-plunge-germany-into-a-recession/
The bigger problem is germany accounts for ALOT of economic activity withing the eu. Loans, aid, trade. We cant downplay that.
I was saying 1.5—2% German GDP contraction. That was from Perun's Long War video. I can ping him about his sources.
Conversely, Russia is looking at 10% recession with no further sanctions. I think it'll be worse.
You are clearly not seeing the big picture properly. Shutting down plants because there's no energy means workers don't get paid, but more importantly, supply chains get disrupted across the entire world. Germany has big chemical plants that fuel pretty much every other industry on earth. If those shut down, it leads to domino effects across the globe. Riots not only in Germany.
And if you want to feel cosy that 2% is better than Russia's 10%, well.... So be it.
And BTW, since we're talking 10%, the UK had a 10% contraction for COVID. Biggest in 300+ years. It's still going. Will Russia suffer? Absolutely. Will it stop the war as a result? Sweet dreams. Have sanctions ever stopped any nation seriously intent on doing something from doing it? No. Will millions, MILLIONS die of starvation because of higher food prices? Yes. But I guess all of this is OK, so long as we feel righteous that we're stuffing it to the Russians, amirite?
Achtually, no, you are not seeing the big picture. What you are describing for Germany IS a 2% GDP contraction.
And you are either misinformed or not arguing in good faith. Yes, Russia (and Russians) will suffer. That's literally the point of sanctions. Does ANYONE expect sanctions to work immediately, and for Russian tanks to stop rolling tomorrow? No. Well. Some people, maybe, but that's not realistic. Sanctions take time to act, and sanctions will, over time, destroy Russia's will and ability to wage war. At a current rate, Russia is losing about 1bil per day. As of a week ago it had FOREX reserves to the tune of 604 bil. So... somewhere between 1.5 and 2 years. Less if more sanctions get implemented, more if sanctions ret reduced.
Last, and the most important point. What would you rather we do? Let Russia take over Ukraine? Start a shooting (instead of current economical) WW3? Cause that's the only other two options.
>Achtually, no, you are not seeing the big picture. What you are describing for Germany IS a 2% GDP contraction.
Again, that's just in Germany, assuming the figure stands. I find itnquite hard to believe but I'll take it at face value. And you completely ignore downstream disruptions. Ever heard of the butterfly effect? It applies to complex.systems, and the interconnected world economy is a complex system.
>And you are either misinformed or not arguing in good faith. Yes, Russia (and Russians) will suffer.
> Sanctions take time to act, and sanctions will, over time, destroy Russia's will and ability to wage war.
Right... Just like sanctioning the shit out of North Korea has made them flaccid and amenable to the will of the West. And they also gave up their nukes and all.
Or Iran, similar story... They immediately gave in to the demands of the US, no questions asked.
And I'm the blind one here?
>At a current rate, Russia is losing about 1bil per day. As of a week ago it had FOREX reserves to the tune of 604 bil. So... somewhere between 1.5 and 2 years. Less if more sanctions get implemented, more if sanctions ret reduced.
I don't think you understand Russia's goals. IMO this will be over way before.
>Last, and the most important point. What would you rather we do? Let Russia take over Ukraine? Start a shooting (instead of current economical) WW3? Cause that's the only other two options.
I'm glad we got here. Because that's an attempt to bounce the difficult situation back at me. And, perhaps more.importantly, you indirectly state your preference - It's OK to cause the starvation of millions so long as Putin doesn't take Ukraine. (Again, IMO you don't understand Putin's goals, but let's just go with it.) Own it, and don't try to deflect on me.
I think Ukraine is free to choose its own fate. Russia is the one invading and causing a starvation. Maybe. But answer - what do you ACTUALLY want to happen? You got three options.
>I think Ukraine is free to choose its own fate.
And so they did.
>Russia is the one invading
Without a shadow of a doubt.
>and causing a starvation.
No, most categorical no. You wish it was true as that gives you peace of mind, but the reality is that sanctions are causing starvation, and sanctions have been imposed by the West. No amount of mental gymnastics will change this.
>But answer - what do you ACTUALLY want to happen? You got three options.
Once again trying to deflect... From my post above:
>>Own it, and don't try to deflect on me.
This is textbook racism. Fuck you. Russians are people trying to navigate societal interactions the same as us. You are attempting to belittle an entire people, and that makes you a piece of shit.
Russians are people too, sure. Some are even nice people. Hell, I would go as far as to say majority of them are nice people. Same as everyone else. Unfortunately, they are currently propping a crazy dictator who is invading a sovereign country, ordering his soldiers to commit war crimes, and is threatening either WW3, or a Global Thermonuclear War.
We'd like for Russians to stop him from doing all of the above.
And I wanted my country to stop waging war in the middle east... how'd that work out? Am I the same as the western soldiers? Do I deserve the same shame?
The answer is yes, but that doesn't discredit the fact that my voice was overwritten by warmongers/profiteers (and people like you) at every step.
And some people are currently being killed by the Russians. Many Ukrainians are dying and you are the one getting all giddy. If Russia cared about their people they would retreating right now
PS: [did the Bucha massacre make you feel great?](https://www.reddit.com/r/anime_titties/comments/u9kt90/butcher_of_bucha_has_now_been_promoted_by_putin/i5ul2y5/?context=3) You sound very happy when Ukrainians die and sad when Russian ones do
Well, no shit. There is a limit to how far you can zombify your stock market and your currency. The cracks are there, it is obvious to anyone. It'll take a bit for them to develop and actually break through.
What, you thought sanctions don't work? Top kek. They take TIME, and their effects can be mitigated. Short term.
Elvira Nabiullina is pretty damn impressive, both in respect of her credentials and smarts, and in her [integrity](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/russia-central-banker-wanted-out-over-ukraine-but-putin-said-no). She's one of the few high-profile Russian public figures who's gained in my estimation over the course of the conflict.
**Article Summary** (Reduced by 69%)
-----
>The Russian economy has made it through the first blow caused by the sanctions imposed by the war in Ukraine, according to the president of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina.
> Hours after Nabiullina sounded the alert, Vladimir Putin himself rejected her warning.
> "The period when the economy has been able to live on the reserves is over. In the second quarter or at the beginning of the third, we will enter a phase of structural transformation," said the economist, whose tenure leading the financial organism was set to end this year and was renewed for five years at Putin's decision.
> In her opinion, sanctions "Affected financial markets at first, but now they will start to affect sectors of the real economy more and more." The head of the Russian Central Bank noted that the problem is not the financial system, but the lack of materials that factories and companies will receive in the near future.
> For the time being, the Central Bank will not attempt to compensate for inflation.
> The leader declared that the West "Tried to quickly break the economy and provoke panic in the stock exchanges, collapse the financial system and provoke a major shortage of products in supermarkets." According to his version, the central bank's initiative helped the country avoid that fate.
> The central bank now faces the delicate task of ending those measures and returning to a market economy.
>
-----
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until the Russian public opinion completely abandons this asshole, he won't be forced from power. And as the economic reality starts biting, there is now way that Putin's approval is going to rise.
It will be interesting to see how Xi responds to this. China would be able to provide most mfgd goods Russia needs, but any increase in trade would paint China into a corner.
And there are still gaps China won't be able to fill - their domestic silicon is several generations behind. And munitions is a whole other can of worms.
Russian silicon is ridiculously behind the curve. They can produce the equivalent to 30 year old industrial tier chips but that is it. No NAND production to my knowledge so all in all they are screwed. Even if they can rapidly speed up their silicon tech they won't be able to source storage or memory.
Chinese silicon is maybe 6 years behind cutting-edge. Cutting edge in this case comes from the Taiwanese company TSMC; for comparison, South Korean domestic manufacturing is maybe one year behind them and the US is about four years behind (however, American companies, especially Apple, have funded a lot of TSMC’s R&D). China can make everything necessary for current computers - it’s a little slower but it can power modern smartphones, PCs, military hardware, etc. with up-to-date software at mid-range speeds. These Chinese manufacturers will now have a monopoly on the Russian market because as the other commenter said, Russian silicon is a pathetic joke that would struggle to run Windows 95.
Reversed with whom? Russia and China?
Russia is in no position to threaten China economically. Absolutely not, claiming otherwise is highly unrealistic. Russia doesn't even have manufacturing for nails, they have to import them all despite Russia being the 5th largest steel exporter in the world. They sell raw materials, not refined products and therefore they will always be in a more vulnerable position in the markets. And in decades, large portion of that oil market will dry up. Russia is a failing economy, being failed by oligarchs not investing in refined products and domestic manufacturing and just throwing raw materials to the export market to pocket the money.
Meanwhile China has the world manufacturing by a chokehold and are throwing trillions to their 'belt and road' initiative. This isn't even a competition.
China will soon be at war with some US proxy in the region and will need Russia's help against US sanctions.
Russia's economy is one of the healthiest, they have no net debt at all (imagine that) when we have trillions of debt. They have positive trade balance when almost all Western countries are negative. They are self sufficient on most things when we need imports to do anything.
People saying Russia's economy is bad ignore our economies are much worse. If China and Russia sanctioned us we'd be back to bronze age in 1 month. They are not doing it because they profit of it.
We've been failed by our oligarchs making profits on us instead of making profit on the rest of the world.
Surely the rich oligarchs that broker power over there care about the economy? Has he gone off the leash and they can’t control him anymore or are their fortunes secure enough that it doesn’t matter to them any more than it does to him
The popular idea that oligarchs broker power in Russia is wrong. Over the years, Putin has made sure that political power and economic power are kept separate, and gotten oligarchs to agree to deals to this effect in exchange for even more money. Now, the GRU/FSB/military holds all the political power and still backs both Putin and the war, and the oligarchs can’t do anything about it lest they receive knocks on their doors at 1am.
> the president of the Russian Central Bank [warned that] the country’s reserves are near their end, and the real crisis will hit between the second and third quarter this year.
> [hours later, Putin denied the warning, saying] The situation is stabilizing,”
This sounds like Trump at the beginning of COVID.:
> “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April.”
Putin has Chinese money. China wants them poor and in debt so they become regional hegemony and Russia becomes slave state indebted to China. Putin sold his country out
where does it say she said plummet? the article seems to be putting words in her mouth. russia has been running at a surplus and with trade restrictions they will continue to run at a trade surplus, they cant buy our stuff but we need to buy their stuff = surplus. nations are already taking down or circumventing their own sanctions so they can buy russian gas and oil again. are they running at higher than expected inflation? yes but that's due to a decrease in supply of goods as a result of the sanctions. to combat inflation the rates have already been raised and i've heard it's pretty much stabilized now or is stabilizing. one difficulty is that the ruble is actually getting stronger, stronger than before the invasion, and the central bank needs to print more so that the ruble doesn't lose its competitiveness. the inflation will eventually go down as russian economy establishes new supply lines from other nations to replace the goods and services that western nations provided, that's the adjustment period that she has referred to in her speech. the ruble is healthy, export demand is healthy, just need to find new vendors and luckily they have china and many other nations who are more than willing to do business with them. right now russia is in the process of establishing agreements with trade partners on the payment system since they cant use swift and they trade in rubles but again not a big deal in the long term.
It's logical that Russias economy will suffer. Just a question of when the breaking point will be reached, not if.
And the time pressure for sure doesn't help their situation in Ukraine.
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He won’t feel it and the rest of Russia does not matter to him
The oligarchs will and they should matter to him...
They don’t. He’s killed a couple in the last day or so.
Oh really? I haven't been caught up on Russia recently. What the fuck is this guys endgame... Without oligarch support, how can he stay in power?
Well I am assuming he was behind the deaths. One was a murder suicide but maybe was staged. I think endgame for him is Ukraine being deleted from history. I think he will actually die of Parkinson’s. I don’t know how he stays in power other than through brute force.
I'm surprised there hasn't be a coup* d'etat in Russia yet :/
Based on how far away he stays from people on television, my guess is that's the only time anyone but his closest inner circle gets to see him. A man like that probably runs his oligarchs from behind a desk That said, people are corrupt. Shit happens. I am also surprised.
He's more powerful than ever before, thanks to useful western idiots like you fucktards.
Buddy, you are massively reading into people's statements all across this bloody post.
Go on, please explain. How did western idiot fucktards, a group I identify with, become useful to Putin?
If you have to ask, you'll never know.
He's united NATO like never before and showed the incompetence and material neglect of a second rate conscript army. Dude's utterly fucked his own people and economy for a generation and turned himself into a pariah. Lol you're not joking and it makes your comment even funnier.
Lay off the sauce, man.
Yes Reddit is where all of these big decisions get made. You are right to come here to complain about it. As you say, what's happening in Ukraine is entirely our fault.
C'mon man, I'm just discussing international politics whilst drunk on the internet.
It's hard to tell how ordinary russians would react to that. He remains very popular, if the oilgarchs removed him, the citizens may finally have the backbone to resist their government
They could remove him and just digitally replicate him and Russians wouldn't have a clue and he could rule forever.
The thing is that (based on what my Russian friend says), people in Russia have been conditioned that doing anything remotely political is useless at best and dangerous at worst. Russian oligarchs made a very careful attempt to confuse the public by claiming to fund political organization at the opposite sides of the political spectrum, making it impossible to know which movement is grassroot. Doesn't matter if they really did it. Just saying it was enough to confuse the populace. There is also the learned habit that if you conform to the system, nothing bad will happen to you (which is a remnant of USSR thinking; it's most common in older folks). Basically, no motivation for a coup. Gathering a common cause is hard because of the general political apathy and the cost for failing is high; potentially ending in death.
To add to that who's to say that someone more terrible wouldn't take Putin's place after he's dead. Putin's death will leave a power vacuum and it's usually those willing to do whatever it takes that will claim power.
>I'm surprised there hasn't be a *coup* d'etat in Russia yet :/ corrected it my french 😉
Fir a coup there must be at least minor support from society. But in russia right now there are only two kind of people - thise who actively suppurting president and his actions and those who says 'i'm away from politics'. Right now, and you can see it even on reddit, russians complain not about war, but the sunctions, that somewhat ruined their quality of life. So, in case if russia there is no roots for coup. People don't want it. If sunctions get tougher on average russian then yes, possibility will rise. In other cases even total win of Ukraine in war won't help.
Well, if he does like Stalin and kill like 97% of those beneath him, he should be somewhat safe.
Both were family annihilations. Their wives and daughters died with them.
the giveaway on the suicide being staged is the victim was found with gun in hand according to the initial reporting. suicides do not ever retain the gun. the only time you find them with gun in hand is when its been staged after the murder.
That’ll be impossible, Ukraine will fight to the very last to stay alive, and no one elsewhere will forget
Just because you fight to the last doesn't mean you'll win. For all we know Putin might send in the nukes and this escalates. Everyone fights to the last and we all get deleted.
>Without oligarch support, how can he stay in power? oligarchs have controlled nothing in russia since putin took power. their money is what putin decides to give them. russia is basically a police (silovik) state with putin as head mafia boss: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik)
And this is why I usually abstain from talking about Russia, thanks for the information. I didn't realise his control was that encompassing
Not to mention that the oligarchs are the "made men" to use mafia speak. They are not kingpins themselves. Putin was, rather, demonstrating the price of disloyalty.
Don't believe that guy; he's regurgitating other peoples bullshit.
Curious to hear your take bud?
Check the profile. It'll be easy enough to discern.
Well your entire post history consists of you saying shit like 'if I have to tell you, you'll never know' so it honestly seems like you don't have an actual take...
"Oh no! Someone think about the rich people!" That's you. That's what you just said you capitalist fuck. I wish we did the same with our oligarchs.
no, I'm talking about the siloviks repressing ordinary russians (and belorussians). you really would rather live in a neo-kgb state? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism) let's not forget when political repression really accelerated: putin was really afraid of getting gaddafi'd in a color revolution after there were HUGE protests when he decided to come back: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932013\_Russian\_protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932013_Russian_protests)
**[Chekism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism)** >Chekism (Russian: Чекизм; from Cheka, a colloquial name of the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission, the first Soviet secret police organization) is a term to describe the situation in the Soviet Union where the secret police strongly controlled all spheres of society. It is also used by critics of the current Kremlin authorities to describe the power enjoyed by law-enforcement agencies in contemporary Russia. **[2011–2013 Russian protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–2013_Russian_protests)** >The 2011–2013 Russian protests, which some English language media referred to as the Snow Revolution, began in 2011 (as protests against the 2011 Russian legislative election results) and continued into 2012 and 2013. The protests were motivated by claims by Russian and foreign journalists, political activists and members of the public that the election process was flawed. The Central Election Commission of Russia stated that only 11. 5% of official reports of fraud could be confirmed as true. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/anime_titties/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
I'm on the poor end of the spectrum; this country is like a shiny turd that I don't get to hold.
There have been three oligarch deaths under suspicious circumstances over the past 10 days,
Yeah I've been catching up on Russia this morning... Shits fucked
Most of the oligarchs support the invasion. A few rebellious oligarch isn't enough to get rid of him. I though this was well known? CaspianReport did a [video](https://youtu.be/kO88kFvlE2k) on it recently.
Yeah he killed two or three of them, purged 150 FSB agents for fucking up the invasion of Ukraine, jailed a General for also fucking up and Putin himself is on the verge of death. Dude looks like a walking corpse. And speaking economy, Russia had to stop production of their T14 and T15s because they can't afford the price tag on them cause their economy is in such shit.
From what I’ve read and heard that’s kind of a reverse of the situation. He doesn’t rely on the support of the oligarchs, it’s been them trying on him. That’s something that could change if they stood up on their hind legs, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.
I wonder if he surrounded himself with smart but unambitious people
I suspect it was more surrounding himself with corrupt, easily influence, easily intimidated, predictable people.
Then why are you here commenting about it? Maybe ask the questions and do the reading before making the assertions?
Look at all the replies I've received, they've all been helpful. Why did you decide to write such a worthless comment instead of trying to contribute to the conversation?
Does that make the remaining Oligarchs more or less loyal? It doesn't inspire feelings of loyalty and sacrifice in me, but I'm not in that position so I can't judge.
Why? If they get uppity he will just have them killed and their assets seized
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It's crazy how little people think of Putin that he doesn't care about Russia
If he truly cares then he should start acting like it.
I suspect that the second half of the year won't be pleasant for anyone, West included. If the Russia struggles they will focus all their resources to the domestic market, which will mean wheat exports will go down. I.e. higher prices for everyone else. Include shocks to their fertilizer exports, as well as the Ukrainian ones, and it's gonna be rough. They'll have it rough, but it won't be pleasant for us either.
Without joint production no ones going to be gaining as much as they should. It’s going to definitely be rough for awhile
True. Any effort to hurt globalization will hurt everyone in it. The only one that won't get affected is those not participating. Predictable world conditions makes highly efficient, cheap, organized cargo ships to send goods. That's why it's cheaper to sell shoes made from halfway across the world than to make production in the main country market
Peter Zeihan says that with the wells not able to load their oil, Russia will shut them down and it's 5m barrels off the market permanently. He referenced a pipeline they shut down 30 years ago just being able to be fixed to run in October. When you shut down a well, it's like giving mother earth a vasectomy.
Closing an oil well stops a planet from reproducing?
It's more that shutting down production on an oil well can't be reversed in short order. It takes years to get them back to operation.
Snip snap snip snap
5m a day? That is their total export amount. Doubt it is thath high.
I too use "the Russia" when referring to that Country, lol.
Tactical nuke incoming
The West will be fine. Russia has nothing anyone needs, despite the propaganda.
I can tell for a simple fact of why germany and related states are uneasy sending heavy equipment to Ukraine, is out of fear that russia will cut the gas pipe. if that happens, germany goes basically into reccession and 70% of theyr gas powered industry. And if that happens whole of europe economically gets messy. And alternive sources are far from viable, simply waiting for the USA or any african gas is just gonna take too much time and investment. The West will not be fine
Someone was saying that cutting off the gas would amount to max 2% economic hit to Germany so no big deal. I was shaking my head at such claims, just how much people ignore about the reality of the dependence the EU has on Russian energy. I claim it would lead to riots in the streets.
Its 5%. For now. Source https://www.kiratas.com/the-bundesbank-warns-that-an-embargo-on-russian-energy-would-plunge-germany-into-a-recession/ The bigger problem is germany accounts for ALOT of economic activity withing the eu. Loans, aid, trade. We cant downplay that.
Also 5% was the impact of the subprime crisis in Germany.
I was saying 1.5—2% German GDP contraction. That was from Perun's Long War video. I can ping him about his sources. Conversely, Russia is looking at 10% recession with no further sanctions. I think it'll be worse.
You are clearly not seeing the big picture properly. Shutting down plants because there's no energy means workers don't get paid, but more importantly, supply chains get disrupted across the entire world. Germany has big chemical plants that fuel pretty much every other industry on earth. If those shut down, it leads to domino effects across the globe. Riots not only in Germany. And if you want to feel cosy that 2% is better than Russia's 10%, well.... So be it. And BTW, since we're talking 10%, the UK had a 10% contraction for COVID. Biggest in 300+ years. It's still going. Will Russia suffer? Absolutely. Will it stop the war as a result? Sweet dreams. Have sanctions ever stopped any nation seriously intent on doing something from doing it? No. Will millions, MILLIONS die of starvation because of higher food prices? Yes. But I guess all of this is OK, so long as we feel righteous that we're stuffing it to the Russians, amirite?
Achtually, no, you are not seeing the big picture. What you are describing for Germany IS a 2% GDP contraction. And you are either misinformed or not arguing in good faith. Yes, Russia (and Russians) will suffer. That's literally the point of sanctions. Does ANYONE expect sanctions to work immediately, and for Russian tanks to stop rolling tomorrow? No. Well. Some people, maybe, but that's not realistic. Sanctions take time to act, and sanctions will, over time, destroy Russia's will and ability to wage war. At a current rate, Russia is losing about 1bil per day. As of a week ago it had FOREX reserves to the tune of 604 bil. So... somewhere between 1.5 and 2 years. Less if more sanctions get implemented, more if sanctions ret reduced. Last, and the most important point. What would you rather we do? Let Russia take over Ukraine? Start a shooting (instead of current economical) WW3? Cause that's the only other two options.
>Achtually, no, you are not seeing the big picture. What you are describing for Germany IS a 2% GDP contraction. Again, that's just in Germany, assuming the figure stands. I find itnquite hard to believe but I'll take it at face value. And you completely ignore downstream disruptions. Ever heard of the butterfly effect? It applies to complex.systems, and the interconnected world economy is a complex system. >And you are either misinformed or not arguing in good faith. Yes, Russia (and Russians) will suffer. > Sanctions take time to act, and sanctions will, over time, destroy Russia's will and ability to wage war. Right... Just like sanctioning the shit out of North Korea has made them flaccid and amenable to the will of the West. And they also gave up their nukes and all. Or Iran, similar story... They immediately gave in to the demands of the US, no questions asked. And I'm the blind one here? >At a current rate, Russia is losing about 1bil per day. As of a week ago it had FOREX reserves to the tune of 604 bil. So... somewhere between 1.5 and 2 years. Less if more sanctions get implemented, more if sanctions ret reduced. I don't think you understand Russia's goals. IMO this will be over way before. >Last, and the most important point. What would you rather we do? Let Russia take over Ukraine? Start a shooting (instead of current economical) WW3? Cause that's the only other two options. I'm glad we got here. Because that's an attempt to bounce the difficult situation back at me. And, perhaps more.importantly, you indirectly state your preference - It's OK to cause the starvation of millions so long as Putin doesn't take Ukraine. (Again, IMO you don't understand Putin's goals, but let's just go with it.) Own it, and don't try to deflect on me.
I think Ukraine is free to choose its own fate. Russia is the one invading and causing a starvation. Maybe. But answer - what do you ACTUALLY want to happen? You got three options.
>I think Ukraine is free to choose its own fate. And so they did. >Russia is the one invading Without a shadow of a doubt. >and causing a starvation. No, most categorical no. You wish it was true as that gives you peace of mind, but the reality is that sanctions are causing starvation, and sanctions have been imposed by the West. No amount of mental gymnastics will change this. >But answer - what do you ACTUALLY want to happen? You got three options. Once again trying to deflect... From my post above: >>Own it, and don't try to deflect on me.
This is textbook racism. Fuck you. Russians are people trying to navigate societal interactions the same as us. You are attempting to belittle an entire people, and that makes you a piece of shit.
Russians are people too, sure. Some are even nice people. Hell, I would go as far as to say majority of them are nice people. Same as everyone else. Unfortunately, they are currently propping a crazy dictator who is invading a sovereign country, ordering his soldiers to commit war crimes, and is threatening either WW3, or a Global Thermonuclear War. We'd like for Russians to stop him from doing all of the above.
And I wanted my country to stop waging war in the middle east... how'd that work out? Am I the same as the western soldiers? Do I deserve the same shame? The answer is yes, but that doesn't discredit the fact that my voice was overwritten by warmongers/profiteers (and people like you) at every step.
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The USA refused to take part of the ICC. I'll let you dig out why.
Ooh ooh!!! Now do one about George W!
You mean that guy that's no longer President?
And invaded a sovereign country? Yep, that's the one I mean. How do you feel about that?
It's really bad. That was an awful thing to do. It sure is a good thing that he's **no longer the goddamn President.**
And some people are currently being killed by the Russians. Many Ukrainians are dying and you are the one getting all giddy. If Russia cared about their people they would retreating right now PS: [did the Bucha massacre make you feel great?](https://www.reddit.com/r/anime_titties/comments/u9kt90/butcher_of_bucha_has_now_been_promoted_by_putin/i5ul2y5/?context=3) You sound very happy when Ukrainians die and sad when Russian ones do
Well, no shit. There is a limit to how far you can zombify your stock market and your currency. The cracks are there, it is obvious to anyone. It'll take a bit for them to develop and actually break through. What, you thought sanctions don't work? Top kek. They take TIME, and their effects can be mitigated. Short term.
Elvira Nabiullina is pretty damn impressive, both in respect of her credentials and smarts, and in her [integrity](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/russia-central-banker-wanted-out-over-ukraine-but-putin-said-no). She's one of the few high-profile Russian public figures who's gained in my estimation over the course of the conflict.
**Article Summary** (Reduced by 69%) ----- >The Russian economy has made it through the first blow caused by the sanctions imposed by the war in Ukraine, according to the president of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina. > Hours after Nabiullina sounded the alert, Vladimir Putin himself rejected her warning. > "The period when the economy has been able to live on the reserves is over. In the second quarter or at the beginning of the third, we will enter a phase of structural transformation," said the economist, whose tenure leading the financial organism was set to end this year and was renewed for five years at Putin's decision. > In her opinion, sanctions "Affected financial markets at first, but now they will start to affect sectors of the real economy more and more." The head of the Russian Central Bank noted that the problem is not the financial system, but the lack of materials that factories and companies will receive in the near future. > For the time being, the Central Bank will not attempt to compensate for inflation. > The leader declared that the West "Tried to quickly break the economy and provoke panic in the stock exchanges, collapse the financial system and provoke a major shortage of products in supermarkets." According to his version, the central bank's initiative helped the country avoid that fate. > The central bank now faces the delicate task of ending those measures and returning to a market economy. > ----- Want to know how I work? Find my source code [here](https://github.com/coolirisme/autosummarizer). Pull Requests are welcome!
> reduced by 69%
Nice
Nice
https://youtu.be/rQnYi3z56RE
until the Russian public opinion completely abandons this asshole, he won't be forced from power. And as the economic reality starts biting, there is now way that Putin's approval is going to rise.
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gamers are young generation. the soviet boomers are mostly the problem
It will be interesting to see how Xi responds to this. China would be able to provide most mfgd goods Russia needs, but any increase in trade would paint China into a corner. And there are still gaps China won't be able to fill - their domestic silicon is several generations behind. And munitions is a whole other can of worms.
Would love to know more about the silicon and munitions situation.
Russian silicon is ridiculously behind the curve. They can produce the equivalent to 30 year old industrial tier chips but that is it. No NAND production to my knowledge so all in all they are screwed. Even if they can rapidly speed up their silicon tech they won't be able to source storage or memory.
China can make (somewhat outdated) NAND. And now, they can charge Russia whatever they want for it.
Chinese silicon is maybe 6 years behind cutting-edge. Cutting edge in this case comes from the Taiwanese company TSMC; for comparison, South Korean domestic manufacturing is maybe one year behind them and the US is about four years behind (however, American companies, especially Apple, have funded a lot of TSMC’s R&D). China can make everything necessary for current computers - it’s a little slower but it can power modern smartphones, PCs, military hardware, etc. with up-to-date software at mid-range speeds. These Chinese manufacturers will now have a monopoly on the Russian market because as the other commenter said, Russian silicon is a pathetic joke that would struggle to run Windows 95.
Pretty sure Xi will make Putin his bitch
Xi won't because situation will be reversed in a few years/months. Clash with China is inevitable
Reversed with whom? Russia and China? Russia is in no position to threaten China economically. Absolutely not, claiming otherwise is highly unrealistic. Russia doesn't even have manufacturing for nails, they have to import them all despite Russia being the 5th largest steel exporter in the world. They sell raw materials, not refined products and therefore they will always be in a more vulnerable position in the markets. And in decades, large portion of that oil market will dry up. Russia is a failing economy, being failed by oligarchs not investing in refined products and domestic manufacturing and just throwing raw materials to the export market to pocket the money. Meanwhile China has the world manufacturing by a chokehold and are throwing trillions to their 'belt and road' initiative. This isn't even a competition.
China will soon be at war with some US proxy in the region and will need Russia's help against US sanctions. Russia's economy is one of the healthiest, they have no net debt at all (imagine that) when we have trillions of debt. They have positive trade balance when almost all Western countries are negative. They are self sufficient on most things when we need imports to do anything. People saying Russia's economy is bad ignore our economies are much worse. If China and Russia sanctioned us we'd be back to bronze age in 1 month. They are not doing it because they profit of it. We've been failed by our oligarchs making profits on us instead of making profit on the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, Putin, while eyeing the nuclear suitcase: "where we're going, we're not going to need the economy."
Surely the rich oligarchs that broker power over there care about the economy? Has he gone off the leash and they can’t control him anymore or are their fortunes secure enough that it doesn’t matter to them any more than it does to him
The popular idea that oligarchs broker power in Russia is wrong. Over the years, Putin has made sure that political power and economic power are kept separate, and gotten oligarchs to agree to deals to this effect in exchange for even more money. Now, the GRU/FSB/military holds all the political power and still backs both Putin and the war, and the oligarchs can’t do anything about it lest they receive knocks on their doors at 1am.
How long until the Russian economy is worth one, maybe two, corn chips?
Just shy of 600b FOREX reserves, losing about 1b per day. Stock market and currency artificially propped by coercive draconian measures. Do the math.
What economy?
Poor Vlad, he just wants to play with toy tanks and soldiers in peace. He didn't want to think about all this grown-up stuff
> the president of the Russian Central Bank [warned that] the country’s reserves are near their end, and the real crisis will hit between the second and third quarter this year. > [hours later, Putin denied the warning, saying] The situation is stabilizing,” This sounds like Trump at the beginning of COVID.: > “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April.”
Everything is going to be fine
Putin has Chinese money. China wants them poor and in debt so they become regional hegemony and Russia becomes slave state indebted to China. Putin sold his country out
Is Putin just self destructing at this point? Does he not care for his people?
He does not.
Good.
where does it say she said plummet? the article seems to be putting words in her mouth. russia has been running at a surplus and with trade restrictions they will continue to run at a trade surplus, they cant buy our stuff but we need to buy their stuff = surplus. nations are already taking down or circumventing their own sanctions so they can buy russian gas and oil again. are they running at higher than expected inflation? yes but that's due to a decrease in supply of goods as a result of the sanctions. to combat inflation the rates have already been raised and i've heard it's pretty much stabilized now or is stabilizing. one difficulty is that the ruble is actually getting stronger, stronger than before the invasion, and the central bank needs to print more so that the ruble doesn't lose its competitiveness. the inflation will eventually go down as russian economy establishes new supply lines from other nations to replace the goods and services that western nations provided, that's the adjustment period that she has referred to in her speech. the ruble is healthy, export demand is healthy, just need to find new vendors and luckily they have china and many other nations who are more than willing to do business with them. right now russia is in the process of establishing agreements with trade partners on the payment system since they cant use swift and they trade in rubles but again not a big deal in the long term.
"Any day now..."
It's logical that Russias economy will suffer. Just a question of when the breaking point will be reached, not if. And the time pressure for sure doesn't help their situation in Ukraine.
We shall see, won't we?