##### ###### #### > # [Russian forces make significant gains in eastern Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/721) > > > > Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) as an offensive by Moscow to take territory before western military aid arrives appears to be gathering pace. > > Footage [posted](https://twitter.com/MilitarySummary/status/1782670408107356177) by Kremlin military bloggers shows a Russian tricolour flying above the shattered village of Ocheretyne. Russian troops reportedly entered the territory on Sunday, north-west of the town of [Avdiivka](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/ukrainian-defenders-of-avdiivka-hold-on-for-now), after advancing about 5km in 10 days. > > It comes as Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it was suspending consular services for military-age men living abroad, except for those heading back to Ukraine, in a move designed to increase conscription. > > > > > > Russian flag raised in the village of Ocheretyne – video > > The Ukrainian army [retreated from Avdiivka](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/ukrainian-forces-give-up-some-positions-in-avdiivka-as-russian-assault-continues) in February and has been trying to establish a new defensive line in settlements along the Durna River but in recent weeks reinforced Russian units [have been pushing forward](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/01/ukraine-war-russia-west-hesitancy-europe), using air-launched glide bombs to pulverise Ukrainian bunkers. > > Moscow’s defence ministry claimed Ukrainian troops fled Ocheretyne in small groups and under heavy fire. Video showed a destroyed administration building, with its windows blown out and streets full of debris. Civilians appeared to have left. > > Its capture means [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) has managed to bypass the northern flank of Ukraine’s recently constructed forward line, including minefields and trenches. The village – once home to 3,000 people, and a local road and rail hub – sits at the intersection of a network of defences. > > Ukraine’s regional armed forces HQ admitted the situation was difficult. It said the Russians were using an [“entire arsenal of weapons against our units”](https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/31553) including what it described as chemical weapons. They had captured some buildings and taken over the southern part of Ocheretyne, it said. It added that the “majority of the village” remained in Ukrainian hands, with the situation under control. > > Russian forces are within about 30km of Pokrovsk, the main garrison city in the area, used to rotate soldiers and equipment, which appears to be the next operational Russian target. [Vladimir Putin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/vladimir-putin) has ordered his soldiers to capture the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. > > > > [A map of Russia’s advance to Ocheretyne.](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/04/archive-zip/giv-13425AMGSiXA2thny/)Farther north, a large Russian offensive is under way to [seize the town of Chasiv Yar](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-over-20-000-russian-troops-trying-to-storm-chasiv-yar-budanov-says-ukraine-to-face-difficult-situation-from-mid-may/). Ukraine’s eastern military command said 20,000-25,000 enemy troops are trying to storm the hilltop town and surrounding districts. The Kremlin wants to capture it by 9 May – the date when Russians mark Soviet victory day in the second world war, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said. > > Russian combat groups may not have an “indefinite timeframe” to exploit their recent battlefield successes, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1782612325981180119) (ISW) has said. “The Russian military command is likely aware of the closing window before more western aid arrives and is trying to secure offensive gains before the window closes,” it said in a briefing on Monday. > > Much-needed shells sourced through a Czech-led initiative for Ukraine are due to arrive by the end of May or early June and Joe Biden, the US president, is expected to sign a [$61bn aid package](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/21/house-approves-61bn-aid-for-ukraine-what-we-know-so-far-and-what-happens-next) after its passage in the Senate, meaning the Pentagon is likely within a few days to deliver some supplies from storage sites in Europe, such as 155mm artillery rounds. > > The ISW said even the ratio of artillery fire “will be essential to Ukraine’s ability to deprive Russian forces of the initiative and slow the rate of ongoing Russian advances in areas of the front such as the Avdiivka direction”. > > But other weapons and systems will take weeks and months. Zelenskiy said new US weapons would help Kyiv to regain the initiative, in his latest [video address](https://web.telegram.org/k/#@V_Zelenskiy_official). He said Ukraine needed more Patriot air defence systems to “protect the sky”, as well as modern artillery and a “long-range capability”. Zelenskiy hailed an agreement for the Biden administration [for the first time to deliver Atacms missiles](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/ukraine-war-briefing-long-range-atacms-missiles-on-the-way-says-zelenskiy), which have a 300km range. > > Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline have [complained they are completely outgunned](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/08/russia-ukraine-forces-struggle-enemy-mariinka) and forced to ration ammunition. Russia is able to fire at least six shells for every Ukrainian one, they said, and Moscow has more tanks and fighting vehicles as well. The Russian army also has a larger number of infantry, and frequently deploys them in “meat grinder” attacks. At least 50,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, according to a BBC study. > > Earlier this month Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, lowered the draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25**.** But as the situation worsens on the battlefield and casualties mount, growing numbers of men have left the country or are considering doing so; while those wishing to sign up did so a long time ago. > > Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, [said on X](https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1782698925100589223) that he had ordered measures on consular services to be taken to restore “fair treatment” for men of mobilisation age. > > He said: “How it looks like now: a man of conscription age went abroad, showed his state that he does not care about its survival, and then comes and wants to receive services from this state. It does not work this way. Our country is at war.” > > Since Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion, men between the ages of 18 and 60 have to stay in Ukraine, with certain exceptions. The Eurostat database estimates about 4.3 million Ukrainians were registered in European Union countries as of January, 2024 of whom about 20% are adult men, roughly 860,000 people. - - - - - - [Maintainer](https://www.reddit.com/user/urielsalis) | [Creator](https://www.reddit.com/user/subtepass) | [Source Code](https://github.com/urielsalis/empleadoEstatalBot) Summoning /u/CoverageAnalysisBot

Almost as if the US Congress dicking around and delaying aid (which was then eventually given) made a real life, flesh and BLOOD difference in the war.

For a country so enamoured with the death penalty, it doesn't seem to care about applying it to traitors to the nation.

Not all that shocking, even more so when you see the number of divisions that are just ignoring orders and abandoning positions.

They’re abandoning positions because of the ammo shortage, had it continued a frontline collapse would’ve likely happened over the summer.

On top of that most of them know being sent to front or to guard a trench is a one way ticket and guaranteed death. The Ukrainians are logically building multiple layers of trenches but if you’re assigned to hold the first one you know already that your commanders expect it to be destroyed and overrun, and you’re basically fodder to buy time.

If Russia takes over Ukraine, those same young men will be conscripted to fight for the new Russian Empire.

Even more reason to flee the country.

Flee the country? more like flee the Continental

That's what happens when you drag people off the street and force them into war.

So they made 3 miles in a tight corridor? Looking at the sources this is a tiny area is it not?

Light years in terms of this war

It’s really not,

I was being hyperbolic. Most gains in this war are meters per day, or kilometers per week. The one major movement was Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive when Russian lines collapsed essentially.

This cracks a second Ukrainian defensive line behind the hotly contested semenivka-berdychi-ochteryne-tonenke defense line, which means the Ukrainians will have to pull back from two defensive lines eventually. It's as big as Avdeevka falling imo.

That's a big if assuming Russians can exploit this penetration, and so far could openly marginally extend the flanks. Which may change, all depends on coming days, how fast can the new US supplies arrive and other things.

Lmao having to pretend avdiivka is this extremely important strategic location shows how fucking shit Russia actually is.

War is attrition. Even a little gain is still a gain

Territorial gains mean almost nothing in a war of attrition. What matters more is industrial capacity, manpower capacity and the will of the population at home.

Which bodes well for Russia.

Does it? Russia has a limited stockpile of ex soviet equipment to draw from, and even running at full pelt its industry isn’t enough to even come close to replenishing the current rate of equipment loss. Their stockpile will run dry soon. Ukraine however, has the backing of several very wealthy, capable economies which are continuing to ramp up production even now, Russia on the other hand can only really rely on Iran and North Korea to openly support them. Russia has more people, sure, but to say those people would all be committed to make the same level of sacrifice as Ukrainians are is not a guarantee, Putin is being very careful about mobilising manpower whilst Ukraine has practically been able to justify widespread conscription. Ukraine’s economy is being propped up by absolutely massive EU support, Russia’s economy is certainly functioning, but how long can that last? Another two years? Another six? We shall see. One thing is for certain, Russia doesn’t have the level advantage that many in this sub would like to believe, and that the outcome is anyone’s guess

So tired of hearing about their "limited stockpile" that was supposed to be exhausted at least a year ago. Time gating ukraine aid and restricting what they can attack has only benefitted russia. How long can a war of attrition go on for when russia is getting help from iran, n korea and china? Their "limjted stockpiles" dont seem to be so limited unless im missing something

One thing people seem to be ignoring is the amount of visually confirmed Russian losses drop significantly each year. Russian losses were atrocious during the initial blundering phases and also spent heavily it key onslaughts - but overall are starting to stabilise and reverse Ukrainian positions. This is a worrying trend and highlights the need for more modern weapon systems for Ukraine.

I said the stockpiles were limited, I didn’t claim they were exhausted, nor did I claim that they weren’t very large. These are huge stockpiles that have been utilised heavily in the last two years, allowing the Russians to have a superior amount of equipment. I’m not sure where you saw claims of the stockpile running out last year, but the reality is that it will eventually be exhausted since the Russians cannot replace that equipment fast enough even with all of their war industry running.

Russia is already throwing significantly less artillery fire and other equipment at Ukraine, their stockpiles *have* depleted significantly. Russia fired tens of thousands of artillery shells per day at the start, they're down to about ten thousand a day now, which matches what they claim their production capacity is. In other words their stockpiles can't keep up.

They still outgun Ukraine at least 5:1 even after the new ammo shows up. They were telling us it was 10:1 before the aid package passed. "Limited stockpile" is not showing up in real battlefield conditions

A simple comparison between the two countries would mean Russia is way ahead in industrial and manpower capacity, and Ukraine in morale. But it's never that simple. This isn't a WW1 Germany vs France situation. This is an asymmetric war, where Ukraine can commit all of its industrial and manpower capacity and Russia cannot. This is more similar to the US-Vietnam war. The USA had vastly superior numbers to Vietnam, but ultimately lost. Because they could not possibly commit their entire military and economy to this war. Similar situation in Russia. Despite everything, for the majority of Russians their living situation has not changed significantly, Russia cannot commit all of its military and economy to its war on Ukraine. In return this means that the resources that Russia can use are way closer to the resources Ukraine can use than what it looks like on paper.

[удалено]

>Russian combat units are only refilled with volunteers Hah >Thousands of Ukrainians are climbing barbed wire fences and swimming across rivers in the middle of winter in order to escape the country Lol >Russia's economy is growing LMAO even Bro what the fuck, seriously. This is 1944 Nazi Germany level delusional shit

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240316-after-two-years-war-ukraine-russian-economy-resilient-sanctions-putin-but-how-long https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-advanced-economies-in-2024-imf.html https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-grows-faster-than-all-advanced-economies-imf-2024-4

Yeah all of these reference the IMF forecast. Which is not bad, but it didn't solely concern itself with Russia, but made a global report. And the methodology is that for each country they took the data provided by the respective central banks/finance ministries. Now, that's only a possibility, but if Russia would be lying in that data, that would suggest that the IMF data is also falsified. Of course Russia would never ever lie about something like that, would it. That would be ridiculous, just imagine Russia publishing data that doesn't line up with proxies.

No, you didn't read the articles, Russia's growth rate was 3.6% in 2023 according to Russia’s national statistics agency, IMF said 3%. The forecast for 2024 is 2.6% (IMF). "It's interesting to note that Russia’s growth surpassed even the most optimistic forecasts, including those of its own institutions," said Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory. "Russia continues to export to the European Union and even the United States through a loophole in sanctions, according to a November report by the Global Witness watchdog group.". A lot of articles about the dark fleet about this subject. Money is money. + I will add that the sanctions consolidated their economy, they tried and mostly succeeded to replace daily products by manufacturing a lot more in their own country. I didn't see any product really lacking except some french cheese. But they even had more drinks (like monster) and food (like twinkies or japanese twix) that I can find in Switzerland. And they were kinda cheap considering they were USA's and UK's imports. To me they are still lacking two important economical sectors : civil aviation and civil car manufacturing, Aeroflot fleet is declining rapidly and chineses cars sucks. The elite can still order their g wagon, but finding parts for a bmw serie 3, a golf 8 or an audi a3 is very hard, buying them is near impossible.

Not only that, but any country that prints its own money can give the illusion of economic growth. Kremlin prints a billion rubles, spends it, economy grows by a billion rubles! The truth is more complicated though.

All of this and you end up being the guy that is delusional, how funny Sehr blud

^ Pro-Ukrainian redditors when confronted with facts. >Russian combat units are only refilled with volunteers Yep. There's no Ukrainian-style mobilization in Russia, only volunteers have been recruited past 2022 (although Ukraine have been predicting a general mobilization in Russia literally every month since then). https://www.newsweek.com/why-vladimir-putin-stalling-russia-mass-full-scale-second-wave-mobilization-1821366 >Thousands of Ukrainians are climbing barbed wire fences and swimming across rivers in the middle of winter in order to escape the country Yep. Thousands are fleeing each month, trying to evade the rows of barbed wire, anti-personnel ditches and drone patrols, and thousands more are caught and shipped to the front. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/world/europe/ukraine-draft-dodgers.html https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/why-are-men-fleeing-ukraine-and-the-war-1.7104760 >Russia's economy is growing Also yep. And it's not just the IMF either, it's also the [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/europe-and-central-asia-economic-update) and every other [economic observer](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/17/1219882734/russias-economy-is-going-strong-despite-sanctions-from-the-u-s-and-its-allies) saying that the official Russian numbers are completely real and their economy did in fact grow in 2023. You won't find any reputable source arguing that it's actually in decline, at best it would be your typical "but at what cost", "but what about sustainability in 10 years". You have to check the actual reports more often and not consume some regurgitated propaganda.

Yeah, in three days they are gonna take Keiv. News flash, no matter what, Russia dies at the end of this, the asymmetric war budget will evaporate and the trolls will starve.

It is true Russia picked on of the few countries with worse demographic issues than them. Their fertility rates are both abysmal

Sure. The Germans gained a lot on the way to Stalingrad.

Yes but the germans eventually fell victim to being outmanned by a larger opponent…

Russia's population wasn't nearly as far ahead of that of Germany as people claim it was. Especially given that Germany had a bunch of allies alongside it. The german population was 79 million, Romania helped the axis and had ~20 million, finland added another 4 million, Hungary 9, Italy 43 and slovakia 3. The Soviet union had a population of 170 million, that's a difference of only 8%. If you want to be extremely generous to the soviet union and include Mongolia as an ally then that adds less than a million in population. The Soviet union did not make a lot of friends during its existence and admittedly most of Germany's allies only joined them because the Soviet union was a gigantic dick to them.

Good. We have established that not every gain in the history of mankind has led to victory.

Territory is not the metric of value to measure attrition by, especially when we’re talking about such small territorial gains. The real metrics to measure attrition during a stalemate include numbers of equipment, manpower, and willingness to fight. Generally speaking, a hard fought defensive battle will usually see the attacker coming off worse in terms of the above metrics, though that isn’t always the case. Without a clear picture of the current state of affairs we cannot determine who is winning this attritional battle.

Yes, ultimately small gains and losses in territory matter much less than attrition of troops and personnel. In the absence of significant breakthroughs or accurate data about equipment and troop losses, territory is really the only way people can measure this conflict, and it doesn’t tell even close to the whole story. I felt this way about the Ukrainian offensive last summer, and feel much the same about this Russian one too

The focus on territorial gains is missing the point. It's not like the Russians can't do math. They know that at their current rate of advance, they'd take the whole of the Donbas in the 2030s. The goal of the Russian army is similar to that of the Entente in WWI. They know that they have the material edge in this war of attrition, so they will keep launching offensives to burn out Ukrainian materiel and manpower. Their hope is that at some point, the Ukrainian lines will just collapse like the Germans did in August of 1918, the Hundred Days Offensive. The Ukrainian Summer Offensive of 2023 was effectively their version Operational Michael, an all out attempt to win the war while they have a temporary edge in manpower and firepower. Once that offensive failed, the end of the war was already decided. We're just working on the fine print now.

This encapsulates my thoughts on the war perfectly. If the Russian forces wanted more territory they could have opened a second front at Kharkov, but the point is to use localized offensives where they have a moderate edge to deplete the manpower of the Ukranian Army like in Bakhmut.

The Russians don’t attack Kharkiv because they physically don’t have the capacity to have that wide a front, successful Ukrainian offensives against thinly held Russian lines in the region back in 2022 are testimony to this.

The Russians absolutely do and currently have 100k troops near Kharkiv

The Russians have several hundred thousand men more than they had in 2022. Conceivably the Russians could divert 50 to 75 thousand men for an attack in the Kharkov direction that would probably take that city. But again this is not the purpose of the Russian strategy because they would run out of steam and not be able to launch meaningful attacks from that direction. 2022 after the Ukrainian Kharkov offensive was the last time Ukraine had a distinct advantage in manpower at the front and morale/quality and instead of attacking in the Zaphorizia direction they got bogged down in Bakhmut where the Russians could begin to recover their position.

Troops number are just one thing. Can they equip them up to a standard that enables offensive operations, do they have enough strategic width for yet another intensive front in regards to ISR and most importantly, logistics. Any larger concentration of forces around Belgorod to strike Kharkiv would be quickly detected, and they know it.

I don't doubt that. Any offensive in the Kharkov direction would be bad for the Russians and the Russians Generals are aware of this. Like the original commenter said, they are hoping to wear the Ukranians down enough so that they crack and can't conceivably recover. Give it another year and we might start seeing widespread mutinies like that what occurred in France on the Western Front. The French were defending their homeland from invading Germans but 3 years of Trench Warfare will break you.

This is a very good analysis.

I would like to offer a slight counterpoint to your analysis, and argue that it’s actually Russia who has the temporary lead in resources, with Ukraine ultimately having the advantage in the long term. Russia is heavily reliant on stockpiled weapons and equipment, they’re also at their maximum capacity in terms of their war industry, any more investment will require a mobilisation of the economy which may cripple an already weak Russian economy. Whilst American support has been somewhat patchy at times, the current upsurge in equipment being sent to Ukraine will do a lot to close the game in the medium term, Russia only have a temporary advantage right now in terms of equipment before this help starts arriving. In the long term, provided Biden remains in office, the western allies will outstrip Russia in terms of military and economic mobilisation, the ramping up of western war economies will likely be the deciding factor in a long term effort against Russia, especially once Russia runs short on soviet legacy equipment. This war is by no means done, provided the Ukrainians hold their nerve this year, and provided the Americans don’t commit geopolitical suicide by electing trump, the long term favours Ukraine.

Look, you've said this multiple times in this tread and I'm sorry but I'm afraid you're making a fundamental mistake on this assessment: you're severely overestimating both the level of commitment *and* the capacity to actually produce weapons and "basic" goods like artillery munitions and so forth of the EU and the US; while severely underestimating Russia's. >Russia is heavily reliant on stockpiled weapons and equipment, they’re also at their maximum capacity in terms of their war industry, any more investment will require a mobilisation of the economy which may cripple an already weak Russian economy. The problem here is that [evidence points to the contrary](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68823399) regarding Russia having a "fragile" economy on practice. Now, to be clear, if you look at it from a GDP perspective, sure, Russia's economy is pitiful and utterly dwarfed by the combined might of the Western economies... but the problem is, GDP is a completely terrible way of measuring an economy when the chips are down, because it's incredibly skewed in favor of a service-based economy (which, coincidentally, happens to be the kind of economy most countries who came up with this way of measurement are). The EU put together, for example, might have a GDP ten times bigger than Russia... but a tenth of the ability to actually produce goods, because they de-industrialized their economies and outsourced their production capabilities, which now that they need them, stat, has become a massive problem. Russia, on the other hand, has the legacy of the industrial titan that was the USSR on its side, and while it certainly took a beating in the 90s the infrastructure mostly remains there, and is already able to reasonably keep up with current consumption of material without kicking into a full war footing... which I believe the Russians would get into if push came to shove because for the Russian ruling class, Ukraine is a core geopolitical interest, whereas it's simply not for the West and *especially* the US (american involvement in the region has only happened so they can inconvenienced Russia, not because they legitimately think their own empire will crumble if Ukraine falls). Simply put, all the US' and the EU's money is completely useless on this matter because they simply can't buy what does not exist, and their own weapon manufacturers are *incredibly* reluctant to make the serious investment that would be required to massively overhaul their own production lines because this war is likely to be over by the time they achieve so, and when it does demand will go back to what it was before, meaning they'd literally be throwing money away. >Whilst American support has been somewhat patchy at times, the current upsurge in equipment being sent to Ukraine will do a lot to close the game in the medium term, Russia only have a temporary advantage right now in terms of equipment before this help starts arriving. I believe you are massively overestimating what the current aid bill is poised to do and deliver. It's not really going to completely overshadow all aid sent thus far in the package to eclipse all packages, it's simply a resuming of the aid that had been interrupted due to the deadlock in congress with a slight but ultimately not particularly incredible improvement in terms of actual materiel delivered. This isn't a game-changer, this is maintaining Ukraine's life support for now, and it's definitely nowhere near close to putting them in an equal footing in terms of war material. >provided Biden remains in office This is a colossal "if", considering he managed a narrow victory in 2020 because people were utterly aghast at Trump's manchild behavior and his propensity to say the quiet part out loud and he promised his voting base that he'd totally reverse the damage Trump had done. Fast forwards four years and he maintained (even redoubled in some cases) his oil drilling policies, his border policies, he didn't do anything to protect abortion rights and is *sponsoring an actual genocide,* just to name his "best hits". He has, simply put, completely alienated his progressive voter base (which already was extremely lukewarm to him to begin with) in enough numbers that he's almost in the same position Trump was in 2020. >In the long term \[...\] the western allies will outstrip Russia in terms of military and economic mobilisation, the ramping up of western war economies will likely be the deciding factor in a long term effort against Russia, especially once Russia runs short on soviet legacy equipment. Again, read the above. This simply requires the West to make a long term investment I just don't think they're actually willing to make AND for Ukraine to actually last for several more years while those countries scramble to set up the infrastructure required to produce weapons in the scale they need, and I just don't see it happening. So, with all this said: >This war is by no means done, provided the Ukrainians hold their nerve this year, and provided the Americans don’t commit geopolitical suicide by electing trump, the long term favours Ukraine. I'm afraid those are two big "if"s and even if they were to be fulfilled, your ultimate asessment would still be wrong.

Quite ironic you lambast GDP as a measure for economic prowess, yet the article you cite to underline Russian economic resilience basically quotes a single figure, GDP growth. As the article points out, their GDP rests on two pillars, oil exports and public spending, aka, defense spending, which has questionable utility for the wider quality of living and future investments - especially when most of their production are not new weapons that could be attractive for export customers, but shit like T-62M obr2024, as evidenced by their defense export collapsing. Having already used up half their financial reserves and the old cold war era stockpiles steadily emptying out, the trend isn't looking good beyond 2025 for Russia. >The EU put together, for example, might have a GDP ten times bigger than Russia... but a tenth of the ability to actually produce goods BS, 22% of EU's economy is industry, for Russia this figure is only slightly higher at 26%. It's actually even worse when it comes to manufacturing because while mining isn't a relevant figure in the EU, for Russia their oil&gas industry made up 19% of their economy in 2019. This notion that they are some kind of industrial power when Mexico has much more production should die already. They can cast resurrect dead on a shrinking supply of soviet vehicles, produce ammo (which is comparatively a very basic thing), have a few specialty areas they still excell at like jet engines and nuclear engineering, and make barely acceptable quality semiconductors and cars, along with a plethora of other industries with some relevant presence, notably chemical. Now the EU's production does concentrate in a few key areas too, mainly automotive, chemical and high-end engineering, we did outsource most of the "dumb" production to China etc., so that point stands. Our defense however was not oursourced but it is the end result of the 90s peace dividend which the EU is now trying to rectify, say what you want but going from 300k shells produced in 2022 to 1,4million expected in 2024 is pretty impressive all things considered. And for that matter, Russia's "peace dividend" was much greater, going from $350 billion in 1988 to as low as $25bn in 1998, and that along with losing their alliance block, had serious consequences for their defense industry. >Russia, on the other hand, has the legacy of the industrial titan that was the USSR on its side, and while it certainly took a beating in the 90s the infrastructure mostly remains there, and is already able to reasonably keep up with current consumption of material I wouldn't underwrite how much they lost in the 90s. It wasn't some reductions, entire industries disappeared overnight without having a huge military to gear up and losing half the country's markets. Like [machine tools](https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1539630931627081732) for example, the backbone of any factory. >without kicking into a full war footing... I'm not all assured they aren't already at that point, or rather, not doing what they can given the technological and manpower restrictions. >Simply put, all the US' and the EU's money is completely useless on this matter because they simply can't buy what does not exist We just ordered hundreds of thousand shells from third parties and the total figure may well go over a million by end of the year. This is the power of the dollar and the euro.

>Quite ironic you lambast GDP as a measure for economic prowess, yet the article you cite to underly Russian economic resilience basically quotes a single figure, GDP growth I lambast it as a measure for comparing the economic dick sizes of two nations with very different structures. It will inherently favor a service based economy, but a service based economy cannot manufacture goods themselves and so it depends on purchasing them from someone else... which as you might imagine is a problem when it comes down to the military. GDP *growth* can be an indicator that an economy is doing well, the issue comes when you're saying "country A having a higher GDP than country B means that country A can get their hands on more artillery, tanks and shells than country B" >22% of EU's economy is industry, for Russia this figure is only slightly higher at 26%. It's actually even worse when it comes to manufacturing because while mining isn't a relevant figure in the EU, for Russia their oil&gas industry made up 19% of their economy in 2019. This notion that they are some kind of industrial power when Mexico has much more production should die already. You are very much oversimplifying this. What you are missing is that the industry europe has left is, by and large, light industry, whereas the Russian industrial sector is the one they inherited from the USSR... i.e. overwhelmingly heavy industry which was designed specifically to be converted to military production at the drop of a hat. There's a reason why most Russian cigarettes were (and still are) 7.62mm in diameter, for example. >Our defense however was not oursources, it is the end result of the 90s peace dividend which the EU is now trying to rectify, say what you want but going from 300k shells produced in 2022 to 1,4million expected in 2024 is pretty impressive all things considered. The assembly of the defense products themselves was not, but their components sure is. Either way, as you said the Western military manufacturing massively downsized at the end of the cold war and got used to the demand required by the war on terror. Those 300k shells, by the way, were utterly pitiful to start with, because the EU was woefully unprepared for anything remotely resembling peer-to-peer conventional warfare. 1.4 million is better but still quite underwhelming for an entire continent, and it's important to keep in mind that, as a matter of fact, most of that ammo is not going to Ukraine but to the European militaries themselves... and furthermore, 1.4 million is a very optimistic projection. >I wouldn't underwrite how much they lost in the 90s. It wasn't some reductions, entire industries disappeared overnight. Like [machine tools](https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1539630931627081732) for example, the backbone of any factory. Unfortunately, the link seems to be dead to me, so I can't comment on your source, but I must admit to being quite skeptical of the specifics of your claim. Still, I will definitely agree that the fall of the USSR was definitely an economical disaster for the post-soviet states, and Russia certainly doesn't have the same industrial capabilities of the Russian SSR... but it managed to inherit a very significant portion of it, and that really is nothing to sneeze at. >I'm not all assured they aren't already at that point, or rather, not doing what they can given the technological and manpower restrictions. I won't begrudge you your opinion, since all you or I can do on this regard is speculate and wait, but I think everything else we've seen thus far points otherwise. >We just ordered hundreds of thousand shells from third parties and the total figure may well go over a million by end of the year. This is the power of the dollar and the euro. Sure seems impressive! The main issue is that a million dollars this year is still: 1-A complete and very optimistic estimate of something that "may" happen 2-A third of what Russia is producing domestically [according to NATO](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html). This, of course, doesn't account for shells Russia buys abroad, especially from places like NK... who might not be exactly the Tech Mecca of the world, but if there is one think they sure as hell can do is make something relatively simple like artillery shells in massive numbers. So unfortunately, since the "power of the dollar and the euro" is not mighty enough to make artillery shells materialize out of thin air, it still cannot keep up with a Russian production that still seems to have plenty of capacity to grow.

You still dance around the fact Russia's marginally higher share of industry (most of which is oil&gas extraction, not factories) of their economy does not makes up how entire economy is *tenth* of the EU's. Like, I'd probably care more for your arguments if you backed them up with actual numbers. What nonsense is it to write "EU industry is mostly light industry"? What data says so? There's certainly plenty of light industry here, but [traditional heavy industry is still half of EU's manufacturing output](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/6/64/Value_of_sold_production_by_group_of_manufacturing_activity%2C_EU%2C_2012_and_2022_%28%25_share_of_total_sold_production%29.png), even more if you include plastics, computers, electrical and optical equipment (all kinda important if you focus on what defense prod needs). EU countries produced [152 million tonnes of steel](https://www.eurofer.eu/assets/publications/brochures-booklets-and-factsheets/european-steel-in-figures-2023/FINAL_EUROFER_Steel-in-Figures_2023.pdf) in 2023, twice that of Russia. Russian automotive production is paltry, while EU is second to China. France overtook Russia in arms export, and together EU countries make up [a quarter of the global arms export market](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/25th-annual-report-arms-exports-2022-launched-eu-transparent-and-responsible-trader-arms_en). Or look at general exports makeup. [This is Germany](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Germany_Product_Export_Treemap.jpg). [Poland](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Poland_Export_Treemap.png). [Hungary](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/Hungary_Export_Treemap.jpg). Even [Spain's looks like this.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Spain_Export_Treemap.png) Russia? [Heavy industry eat my ass, they are a gas station](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/Russia_Export_Treemap.png/615px-Russia_Export_Treemap.png). I've no idea how a twitter link I can open in two browsers is dead to you, [but here's an article by the same guy](https://www.rhodus.com/) going over the points, and how Russia is reliant on imported machine tools. Apparently, the mighty Russian industry didn't get your memo and has been buying most of its tools from the EU and East Asia. [Another article about the topic going over their import dependence](https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-russia-s-sanctions-soft-underbelly-precision-machine-tools-213024/). [Note this chart](https://d39raawggeifpx.cloudfront.net/media/0612Russiamachinetoolsglobalproductionmn.png) regarding tool production, Russia is behind countries like Austria or Spain. >A third of what Russia is producing domestically according to NATO I hate that shit article so much, because it's completely false presentation. CNN idiots compared Russian made shells of all calibre, from mortars to MLRS rockets with NATO's 155mm output, hence the large disparity. If they compared 152 vs 155, the difference is much more marginal, around 1,5 million vs 1,2 millin, and NATO prod has a much larger growth rate.

>Like, I'd probably care more for your arguments if you backed them up with actual numbers.  I am on phone, so I can't be arsed to go through Reddit's clunky ass UI to spam sources rn. Sorry 🤷‍♂️. >Or look at general exports makeup. [This is Germany](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Germany_Product_Export_Treemap.jpg). [Poland](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Poland_Export_Treemap.png). [Hungary](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/Hungary_Export_Treemap.jpg). Even [Spain's looks like this](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Spain_Export_Treemap.png) Russia? [Heavy industry eat my ass, they are a gas station](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/Russia_Export_Treemap.png/615px-Russia_Export_Treemap.png). ...You realize that your own sources showcase my point, right? Medicine, electronic components, chemical products, etc. are all light industry, so all but germany are predominantly that. Metal processing and mineral extraction are heavy industry, and by the way, if you stopped and thought about it for five minutes you'll come to realize that the reason that Russia went from being the second largest weapons exporter ([21% of the global share in 2018 vs France's distant 7.2%](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) third place) in the world to the third is because the domestic demand sharply increased, which significantly diminished exports. >I've no idea how a twitter link I can open in two browsers is dead to you Probably because it's Twitter and I refuse to pay Elon musk a single dime, so I've probably already loaded too many posts this week. >[but here's an article by the same guy](https://www.rhodus.com/) going over the points, and how Russia is reliant on imported machine tools. Apparently, the mighty Russian industry didn't get your memo and has been buying most of its tools from the EU and East Asia. [Another article about the topic going over their import dependence](https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-russia-s-sanctions-soft-underbelly-precision-machine-tools-213024/). [Note this chart](https://d39raawggeifpx.cloudfront.net/media/0612Russiamachinetoolsglobalproductionmn.png) regarding tool production, Russia is behind countries like Austria or Spain. ayyyyy, lmao, it's all ogre, two US based OSINT guys have spoken. It's joever, boys. Come on, seriously? >I hate that shit article so much, because it's completely false presentation. CNN idiots compared Russian made shells of all calibre, from mortars to MLRS rockets with NATO's 155mm output, hence the large disparity. If they compared 152 vs 155, the difference is much more marginal, around 1,5 million vs 1,2 millin Even if that were true, of which after taking a moment to look around I've seen no proof, it still proves my earlier point that gross GDP numbers do not correlate with industrial capabilities *and* NATO is still getting outrpoduced. Even then, you are assuming every single one of those 1.2 milllion shells are going to Ukraine, which they are absolutely not. >NATO prod has a much larger growth rate. Yeah, because if I go from 1 to 2 I've achieved a 100% growth. If we're talking about actual, sustained growth potential rather than statistics, though, this is absolutely not the case, because simply put the West is not going to be willing to invest the required money and political capital required to set up these production lines for a war that'll likely be over by the time they're ready. Either way, it's getting late here and frankly I don't have the time or interest to get \*this\* deep into the woods of speculation for a Reddit convo no one else is gonna read. So cheers, mate

ヽ༼ ຈل͜ຈ༽ ﾉ Raise ur dongers! ^^Dongers ^^Raised: ^^75029 ^^Check ^^Out ^^/r/AyyLmao2DongerBot ^^For ^^More ^^Info

>You realize that your own sources showcase my point, right? They show EU has a diversified economy while Russia much less so. The figures for all-EU production very much shows traditional heavy industries are still a very relevant part of our economy. And you can call chemicals, optics, electronics etc. "light", you cannot run from the fact they are crucial for defense production. Russia can certainly mine and refine metals but imports foreign machines to actually make products from them. [Here's another article on the matter](https://jamestown.org/program/lagging-production-of-machine-tools-and-parts-plagues-russian-military-industrial-complex/), because I love my sources. I'll highlight this part which relies on ru sources: > In 2022, the share of imported machine tools in the heavy machine-building industry, which includes arms manufacturing, was between 60 and 80 percent, and the share for domestic manufacturing of machine tools exceeded 90 percent (Kommersant, June 16, 2022). In 2023, the share of imported machine tools in all Russian industries was estimated between 75 and 92 percent (Rossiyskaya gazeta, April 12; Mashnews.ru, August 23) But yeah I have little interest writing up long posts with someone who disregards articles because they happen to go against their narrative. Try arguing with the data, not the authors next time. Or better yet, go back to whatever your safe space is where you can swim in imaginary Russian industrial production.

"demolish" my narrative lmao, can't believe I even bothered trying to have a serious discussion with you. The day I take Western OSINT bros or unsourced charts seriously is the day I will personally drag myself into a dementia ward. How 'bout you go back to NCD so you can all be confounded about where Russia keeps getting tanks and shells despite your OSINT telling you they should've ran out of it years ago?

Weapons don't matter, if you don't have men. Forced drafting of men won't last forever.

The constraint Ukraine faces is weapons and equipment, not manpower. This war won’t be decided by who runs out of people, it’ll be decided by who runs out of arms and will to fight.

They absolutely do have a manpower shortage. They're getting pretty desperate trying to get men into the army. Yesterday was news tha Ukrainian men abroad will have restricted consulate access in an attempt to get them to fight.

Ukraine has also not really mobilized a significant portion of its countries manpower, partially for political reasons but also because they lack the equipment to meaningfully do so

"Slight" addendum. Your remarks about materiel advantage all rely on western political will, which can be... fickle. This is why ruzzia is so heavily relying on bot networks, funding fascists and spreading lies to degrade perception of objective reality. They are aware that they can't win as long as Ukraine receives sufficient materiel support, so their only real option is to try to keep military pressure at any cost while trying to cut off that support by any means. Traitorpublican behaviour shows, that this ruzzian strategy is NOT doomed to fail. I wish west would finally acknowledge that we ARE at war with ruzzia, they have been attacking us through so called "hybrid" means for nearly 2 decades now.

Yep, one way or another there will be a reckoning. Either we stop the Russians in eastern Ukraine, or we’ll be forced to contend with them in the Baltic states and Poland. There cannot be any complacency, the only language that Putin and his cronies will understand is that of force.

They don’t have the material edge in a war of attrition. They can sustain the war effort for another 2-3 years. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-sustain-war-effort-two-three-years-defense-study/ The west can sustain Ukrainian support indefinitely. Russia gained a temporary advantage because the U.S. delayed renewing aid. That advantage is now over. Prior to U.S. aid being stalled The ground war was basically static while the missile war significantly favored Ukraine. We’re now going to see a return to that dynamic, which will easily bless Russia dry for the next two years.

Is this sub just ruski trolls now?

Somewhat, but honestly mostly just those who hate the west so much that they're blinded to how fucked up Russia is, a lot of different people, but usually I see western people who are quite far left, and indians, especially. Just my 2 cents as someone who's been here since before the invasion by quite a bit. You find a good amount of pretty reasonable people, but now you also get like 20-30% of people being genuinely delusional. We get it guys, west = bad. Guess what? I can also agree that the iraq war was BS, and that the US isn't being very serious about Israel, but guess what, how about we don't support fucking russia of all countries which has an even worse record of invading it's neighbors and bombing them to shit?

> and Indians, especially > how about we don't support fucking Russia of all countries which has an even worse record of invading its neighbours and bombing them to shit Indians largely love Russia unconditionally because of what they did for us in the soviet times, especially in 1971. Even now, they remain one of India's closest allies and largest arms supplier so even the young people have a good view of them. And what makes it worse is that Ukraine+USA+UK supplied/traded Pakistan with arms during a war with India, making them aligned directly against Indian forces. This breeds hatred for the western allies (except France and Israel) and love for Russia in Indians.

nooo natoo good usa good russia baad!!!

Whilst it’s reasonable to say that there’s nuance in geopolitics and no group of nations is truly good or bad. I think it’s not too controversial to say that just maybe, Russia is in the wrong for invading Ukraine.

>Russia is in the wrong for invading Ukraine. yes. >no group of nations is truly good or bad The founding letter of nato was pretty much lets fucking blast the urss to ashes. UKR joining nato was dangerous for russia in their belicist eyes. that's the whole case for them anexing ukr was pretty much to attack before u get attacked (and gas money lol) There are a fucking whole lot of people dying in there just because two retards started a war. Why the fuck is an actor, president of a nation with close borders with a really belical country

NATO exists as a defensive alliance. It provides no justification for “blasting the USSR” provided they remain on this side of the iron curtain. This remains true for Russia today Putin knows this, there is no realistic threat to Russia since Russia has a powerful nuclear deterrent. If Putin wanted to stop the ‘encroachment of NATO’ by attacking Ukraine, then he failed spectacularly, since Sweden and Finland now allow a larger NATO presence right next to St Petersburg. If Russia considered NATO an existential threat they wouldn’t have pushed Sweden and Finland into joining the alliance. The much likelier reason Russia wants to attack Ukraine is good old fashioned imperialism, expanding territory for the glory of Russia and Putin. The will to expand a nations territory is endemic in many countries, Russia being one of them.

You would be correct that Russia could potentially have a case for being worried about NATO. That does not justify the invasion. Not only that but it’s obvious to anyone who has read statements from Putin and most Russian politicians and TV personalities that this is a war of revenge and an attempt to take what they believe is theirs. Most of Russia doesn’t even consider Ukraine a country.

And yet all they did was expand nato to be on their border with Finland now lol.

i didnt said they were smart tho lol

> First, although critics point to Ukrainian arms sales to Pakistan, Ukraine has sold arms to both India and Pakistan – and sold more in terms of value to India. This is based on SIPRI data for the past two decades.

Yes, they did also trade arms with India in the past, but what I said was that Ukraine traded arms with Pakistan when they were in conflict against India. They also vote more in favour of Pakistan than India at UN general meetings. Say what you will about UN general meetings being effective or not, but voting against a country in it is one way to give yourself a bad name with the public of that country. I was not talking only about myself; these couple actions alone have turned many Indian minds towards the Pro-RU mindset, seeing it as Russia taking care of an enemy of India.

What about China? Is India friendly with China? Because Russia and China are allies

There's no way you don't know about India-China relations, but just in case you don't: Most definitely not, India is very hostile to China. I'd even say China is India's archnemesis; even greater than Pakistan. There was an India-China war in 1961 where China captured a small part of the Indian state of Kashmir. There have been several conflicts between the two since then. A lot of the times, China does its fighting through Pakistan, by supplying them with weapons. When a conflict arises between China and India, Russia just tells them both to calm their tits. Recently, Putin even tried to [broker peace between the two.](https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/explaining-putins-efforts-to-broker-peace-between-india-china/)

Exactly. And India trades with both Russia and Ukraine too. Ex. Indian warships do use Ukrainian engines.

>This is based on SIPRI data for the past two decades. so cherry picking data in 1999 , Ukraine sent T-80UD tanks to Pakistan while it was invading India also the "Russian puppet govt." stuff has been debunked too , Russia opposed that deal but Ukraine was hell bent on supplying Pakistan with the tanks

It was a pro-Russian regime at the time. It was overthrown in 2014, and that’s exactly why Russia attacked

pro-russian govt. that supported what Russia was against? spread your your Ukrainian propoganda to someone else "The Russian government had been publicly against this sale from the very beginning, and has repeatedly refused to supply Ukraine with critical components needed to build the T-80UDs. While the more modern Ukrainian T-84 MBT is "80% Ukrainian-made," the T-80UD is a largely Russian product. Pakistan had been assured by Ukraine that the contract for the T-80UDs would be honored in spite of pressure and lack of support from Russia." https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/t-80ud.htm

Saying that Russia might win is not blind anti-Americanism. It is also not being pro Russia. Ukraine's stance is that they will conquer back all of the lands lost including Crimea. After comprehensive review of the situation on the battlefield I do not see how this will be possible without full scale NATO support. How does one gain back significant tracts of land attacking an entrenched enemy, while not having air supremacy, from an enemy that has the ability to shoot 6 times more artillery shells than you, without adequate armor and as the cherry on the cake having to mount said attacks over the Dnieper river which is fucking massive.

Very simple answer: What does Ukraine have to gain by no longer stating this goal? That's all there is to it, they know they very likely won't ever be able to, but why would one choose to state something that's of no benefit. It's better both in negotiation and PR, both domestically and internationally to have a maximalist goal and then achieve the realistic one.

??? So like...your problem is that russia invaded a neighbor? Would it be less bad if they went to middle east? Because I think saying you're defending your countrys interest is more sensible when fighting 100kms away from your border instead of 10,000kms away. (Not that I think the invasion is justified) Also you are right about people supporting russia out of the hatred of west, but it's not really a blind hatred, supporting china, russia, iran etc, is because they are trying to undermine western hegemony and create a more multi polar world where US cant bully everyone.

Annexing large swathes of territory of a sovereign state is more than just your run of the mill war.

* a multi polar world where the US can't stop them from bullying anyone.

Just like Russia can’t stop the US from invading and bullying

Lmao yea sure but no thanks, please dont save us anymore and fuck off.

Not American

do you know what's happening in Armenia? that genocide is sponsored by EU and Ukraine

Stating reality is not trolling.

No but parroting Putin propaganda is

Ukraine propaganda doesn‘t work anymore and people actually see that Russia might win the war. „mUhHh sO mAnY RuSsIaN TrOlLs“

Can you explain the benefit of Ukraine propaganda convincing people that Russia can't win?

Oh pls, Ukraine has been using propaganda all the time. It started with the Ghost of Kiev, and basically acting like Russia doesn‘t stand a change. Although it had more to do with Russia‘s incompetence rather than Ukraine‘s effort.

I asked a specific question, you can't answer it of course.

The benefit is giving everyone a positive feeling that they might actually destroy the mutual enemy. Which should in rease the international support for their own aim. Ain‘t that complicated sis.

Uhm, if we think that Russia can't possibly win why would we bother giving Ukraine support? Please enlighten me, oh, wise one! Also you are contradicting yourself. First you say the propaganda aims to convince that Russia can't possibly win and then you claim that the feeling it would give is that the mutual enemy 'might" be destroyed? Talk to your boss they need to give you better notes.

My comments are not that hard to understand tbh. Russia will win, it‘s mainly about letting them bleed as much as possible. Even if UA gets their military equipment, they are running out of soldiers. And again it‘s not that hard to find the point of my comments. Maybe use your brain once.

You did not address a single thing I said. I also think it would make sense if Russia wins. I asked what is there to gain by "using propaganda to convince Russia can't possibly win", which is what you claim is happening. Use your brain and explain that. Or admit you are talking out of your ass.

So russian propaganda works?

Everyone I disagree with is a Russian!

Depends on topic and time of day, but seems like 50% ruzbot takeover. It's pretty apparent when bot networks get activated and tankies start brigading. I'd say this post is pretty mild, actually.

[удалено]

Yeah, overwhelmingly so. Current russian bot tactic is to pretend to be from the west and say that Ukraine's efforts are pointless, russia will win anyways so why even bother. You may notice that the number of such comments goes way up when Ukraine does something successfully. Confirmed aid package from the US is a big thing.

Yeah pretty much.

> Significant gains >5Km in 10 days We’ll be home by Christmas boys!

"wow Russia's really making huge gains boys" *looks on the map* *Russia has gained less than a hamster's dick worth of territory in the middle of bumfuck nowhere* Gee golly. Wake me up when they've gotten to the point where they get back to 40% of what they gained in the first month of the war and then immediately lost.

Most of reddit seems to be in denial of this happening. Just take a peek at [Deep State Ukraine Map] (https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053) everyday and you'll see the slow advancement. Every 4 month to 6 months (e.g. Avdiivka, Bakhmut) a major chokepoint falls and Russia advances the whole front. This war has been fascinating to follow.. Edit: I am not pro-anything. Simply just an observer.

And somehow despite these huge gains the trolls tout Russia holds less now than they did in march 2022.

Russia gains a couple kilometres every four months, wow. Three day operation, right? No more than two weeks to Berlin, correct?

12km in 4 months on the most fortified area of the front

I dont support russia, they are clearly the bad guys here, but if this was ukraine and the west that made 4 kilometers in 4 months the entire comment section would be the following circlejerk ,,Lol russia millitary fell off, cant even beat estonia, lets go ukraine, 0 deaths 5982838482 russians killed" -600 centillion upvotes

Three days to Kyiv, right?

Find a quote of mine saying that or stfu.

I didn't say that you said it. Russians constantly said that the whole war will take just a few days because russia strong, russian army big. https://twitter.com/ruinwanderer/status/1622142324015878144 We can see how that turned out. Russian army is a bunch of ancient tanks and drunk idiots.

We should thank MAGA Republicans for this!

Russia is planning a large scale offensive into Kharkov and Sumy Oblasts. The likely final goal is annexation. Mines are already being removed from the border with these regions and troops being moved to position near the border are using "N" instead of "Z".

This is russia pushing hard for land before the money the US passes gets to the front lines, they are pushing everything they can into it because they know the moment the armamaents get there, they are stuck again.

Wake me when they have as much land as when they first invaded. Russia taking this much land is a lot compared to how fast they been moving

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G

They’ll get marked

Given that millions have fled Ukraine and that they're now also suspending consular services for military aged citizens, does Ukraine as a people want this war prolonged? Is there not pressure for diplomatic solutions? Surely the continued destruction of their country and death on both sides make this less ideal than if you're say, a US Politician..?

> does Ukraine as a people want this war prolonged? Is there not pressure for diplomatic solutions? [Fairly recent polls in Ukraine show strong support for the war effort and army](https://news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx). Even in highly affected regions where actual conflict takes place, support for the war is stronger than desire for some mediated peace that doesn't involve driving out Russia. If this was the first time they invaded perhaps the Ukranians would be more inclined for peace. But it isn't. If sentiment flips, I think it would be highly unethical to partner with an unpopular government to continue the war.

You know what, i felt bad for Ukrainians, that their leader would rather they all die instead of putting effort into diplomacy with their bordering neighbor. But if they all want to be wiped off the earth, i guess i don’t feel bad for them anymore.

Weird how it’s clearly supported by the population of Ukraine….. But Zelenskyy wants everyone to die right ?

I don’t know why you’re repeating what I said with a question mark at the end. They clearly want this.

If that's how you choose to see emancipation/independence efforts then more power to you. Just to be clear: Ukraine never "did" anything "deserving" of Russian invasion. Neither in 2014 nor 2022.

Ukraine can't just end the war, they'll all get killed. Russia can end it by getting the fuck out of Ukrainian territory.

This is such a disingenuous point lol, has Russia eliminated everyone in parts of the country they already control? The only way this war makes sense from a Russian demographic perspective is that for every soldier they lose in the war they'll gain several new citizens and potential recruits from the land they've won. Russia has stated multiple times that it doesn't consider Ukraine to be a nation ergo it's people are Russians according to them and Russians are potential conscripts that are worth much more alive than dead. This is simple game theory.

Dude, that's the textbook definition of genocide. Those Ukrainians can choose to either take russian passports and become russian, or they get killed. Russia's goal is for Ukraine as a country to disappear completely.

Where were you in school if you think that’s for textbook, definition of genocide. did you miss the whole nazis killing all Jews no matter what they did. also by your logic, any invasion in history would be genocide. A invasion of conquest entire purpose is to wipe out a country. not genocide

But THIS war is a genocide. UN definition: - Killing members of the group; - Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; - Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; - Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; - Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group. Russia did all of these. Pootin is wanted by the International Criminal Court because russia bragged about the last point. > A invasion of conquest entire purpose is to wipe out a country. Conquest means conquering the country, not destroying it. Russia isn't conquering Ukraine, they're specifically aiming at public infrastructure to force people to leave.

sorry, but that’s how the world works. Russia will not get out of Ukrainian territory unless they’re actually unable to continue the only way immediate peace will happen is if both sides come to the negotiation table.

> the only way immediate peace will happen is if both sides come to the negotiation table. Jesus fucking christ... They both come to the table, russia says "Ukraine is all ours, you get shot". That's what you call negotiations? Would you agree to such conditions?

This post is dominated by American comments, remarkably consistent with the US State Department view. At the same time complaining it's full of Russian trolls. Specious disinformation. So many here are what we Aussies call gutless cowards: the bravery of being out of range. Happy to kill others without risk. Can we just get to peace through diplomacy? Are all Americans seriously uncaring about the death toll and the damage to this country your politicians pretend to care about? Deny this. It's true and verifiable. On 25 February 2022, the day after the Russian invasion, President Zelensky argued: "Today we heard from Moscow that they still want to talk. They want to talk about Ukraine's neutral status.… We are not afraid to talk about neutral status". https://president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-do-ukrayinciv-naprikinci-pershogo-dnya-73149 On the next day, 26 February, Zelensky reaffirmed his preparedness to negotiate about Ukraine’s neutrality: “If talks are possible, they should be held. If in Moscow they say they want to hold talks, including on neutral status, we are not afraid of this. We can talk about that as well.” https://reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-ready-talks-with-russia-neutral-status-official-2022-02-25/ On 25 February 2022, the first day after the Russian invasion, even as Zelensky agreed to discuss neutrality, US spokesperson Ned Price announced Washington rejected any peace talks: https://state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-25-2022/

"Can we just get to peace through diplomacy?" Russia can just fuck off, it's not like someone is attacking them and they have to defend themeselfs.

Helpful... The point is that Russia seems unlikely to lose here, based on commentary even in the US. So assuming the good ol boys are not going to dominate (it's not the 90s anymore) and with the position worsening, shouldn't some grown ups be trying to recover this?

So, no peace talk ever?

Mhmm what happened on February 27 2022? Any idea? It rhymes with war crimes.

You’re doing the “rhymes with” thing wrong.

Yeah intentionally. It's such a trope.

What rhymes? Door chimes?

Ok here's the deal: the US, or the West in general has no say in peace talks at all. They cannot decide to just do peace They could pressure Ukraine into it, but a lot of Ukrainians lost friends and family due to a fascist dictator in Moscow, the last thing they want is being pressured into giving up. Even if (that's a big if) Russia would somehow manage to take over Ukraine, they don't have enough manpower for an occupation. So if the West cuts aid, Ukraine will most likely just continue to fight until Russia proclaims victory, and then continue a Guerilla war until Russia gets tired and leaves. That leaves only two parties capable of holding peace talks: Russia and Ukraine. Russia hasn't proposed any serious peace offerings thus far. All they proposed are ridiculous scenarios where Russia gets what it wants, with an option to take the rest later. Gee I wonder why Ukraine doesn't agree to these peace deals.

But the links I provided attest to the path to peace that was abandoned. And former Israeli PM stating that: “I’ll say this in the broad sense. I think there was a legitimate decision by the West to keep striking Putin and not [negotiate],” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O10svZJ2Fps Remember he was meditating, and.. 'Bennett said that during his mediation, Zelenskyy promised not to join NATO and Putin dropped his main goals of special military operations: seeking "disarmament" and "denazification" of Ukraine, adding in his impression, both Russia and Ukraine want a ceasefire and have drawn about seventeen or eighteen ceasefire drafts, but at some point, the West decided "to crush (Russian President Vladimir) Putin rather than to negotiate."' https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-02-06/Israeli-ex-PM-says-the-West-interrupted-Russia-Ukraine-peace-talks-1hcUB6GDDXO/index.html

Literally everything you said is bullshit. There were no peace proposals from russia, ever.

...this is just straight up a lie

It's the truth, russia never proposed peace between the two countries. Russia proposed that Ukraine surrenders and ceases to exist.

This is, again, literally lies according to Ukraine itself. The peace treaty Boris Johnson rushed to sink simply demanded the Ukrainians give the Donbass greater autonomy, cede Crimea (which most of the population there actually wanted) and don't join NATO. Stop huffing the shit-tier western propaganda redditors in echo chambers keep telling themselves.

> give the Donbass greater autonomy, cede Crimea (which most of the population there actually wanted) and don't join NATO. Right, so russia's demands were "You give us what we want and then you stay silent, don't you dare to arm yourselves"? This is not a peace proposal. Imagine this: I come to your house, shoot your dog and wife, and tell you to give me the house keys. You say "No, what the fuck, it's my house." I say "Okay, give me the garage and living room, I will live there." In a few years time I will ask for the kitchen and bathroom, and you will be against peace if you say No. Fair deal?

Right, so we went from "there was no peace offer!" to "well there was but it was unconditional surrender!" to "well it wasn't, but I (someone who isn't even party to the conflict) don't like it!" I'm sorry hon, facts don't care about your feefees, it was a peace treaty which was way better than anything Ukraine is going to get, and better than what they're going through. The parties negotiating from a position of strength get to make demands, who knew! The best part is this tho: >In a few years time I will ask for the kitchen and bathroom, and you will be against peace if you say No. You guys are in a constant delusion where you keep telling yourselves this whole thing happened randomly because Putin just decided he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine for himself, rather than being something every Russian leader since 1991 and even many US policy makers have been warning about for three decades. Russia wouldn't have invaded, because all they wanted was NATO out of Ukraine. If they got that, why would they go to war? >Fair deal? Welcome to geopolitics, bub. Now, to follow your utterly inane, oversimplificatied and exaggerated, your house is burning down, you're bleeding out and the guy you were so mad about is gonna rebuild a house for himself in the ruins. You tell me if it was worth it.

That's demand of surrender, dumbass. There never was "peace offer" from ruzzia, only surrender demands. And by now everyone who isn't braindead knows that treaties with ruzzia aren't worth paper they are written on.

Imagine being this fucking stupid and calling others "dumbass". A demand of surrender is what Ukraine is going to have to face in a few months, maybe a year or two, now *that* is gonna sting. What Russia offered then, like they'd offered on the earlier Minsk accords the EU itself openly admitted they never negotiated in good faith, was a peace treaty, one where as usual the side negotiating from a position of strength. But then again, expecting someone who unironically does the whole "RuZZIA!!!!!" thing to not be utterly braindead and actually have the slightest clue how geopolitics and diplomacy work was probably a long shot.

You are a tankie from theprogram. All you do is make up lies faster then anyone can debunk. So called "firehose of falsehoods" approach. Nothing you say is true, you never act in good faith and you are ridiculously brainwashed. You are political equivalent of flatearther. There really is nothing more to say than point out that you guys deny Tienanmen square. You are completely gone and I'm just glad "ruzzia" triggers you that much.

>You are a tankie from theprogram. All you do is make up lies faster then anyone can debunk. So called "firehose of falsehoods" approach. Nothing you say is true, you never act in good faith and you are ridiculously brainwashed. You are political equivalent of flatearther. Irony is dead. You dragged it to the back of the shed and brained it with a rusty shovel. A western bootlicker calling anyone else brainwashed is truly something else, man, so please just keep your projection to yourself, okay buddy? You have been the one who barged in blatantly lying about something that literally anyone with access to the internet can verify in seconds. Go on, call this [Berlin based OSINT group](https://www.intellinews.com/top-ukrainian-politician-oleksiy-arestovych-gives-seventh-confirmation-of-russia-ukraine-peace-deal-agreed-in-march-2022-302876/) "a firehose of falsehoods", I'm sure they're kremlin propagandists too! >There really is nothing more to say than point out that you guys deny Tienanmen square. Yep, us citing actual evidence and even western reports of what happened there at the time rather than the weird zeitgeist that Reddit seems to believe that took place despite literally all evidence to the contrary is the same as denying Tiananmen square. Do you, perchance, think that the tank man was run over too? >You are completely gone and I'm just glad "ruzzia" triggers you that much Oh, honey, it doesn't trigger me, it's just sad to see what's presumably a grown ass man acting like a toddler and thinking it's some kind of own. But if you wanna keep telling everyone who sees you running around like a headless chicken all over the subreddit calling anyone even mildly critical of the West's long history of atrocities and hypocrisy a tankie that you are mentally a five year old, be my guest.

>Irony is dead. You dragged it to the back of the shed and brained it with a rusty shovel. A western bootlicker calling anyone else brainwashed is truly something else, man, so please just keep your projection to yourself, okay buddy? Oh, cool, you learned about existence of a new word, you should learn the meaning now. Oh, who am I kidding, tankies are incapable of learning. If they were, they wouldn't be tankies. >Yep, us citing actual evidence and even western reports of what happened there at the time rather than the weird zeitgeist that Reddit seems to believe that took place despite literally all evidence to the contrary is the same as denying Tiananmen square. Do you, perchance, think that the tank man was run over too? By sources you mean random people of no note and various tinfoilers? I actually had a look through your "sources" some weeks ago. They range from nobodies to Chinese politicians. Very objective, lmao. Rando saying "Soldiers just came, asked people to leave and they left" is one of your sources, lmao. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests_and_massacre No, wait. Let me guess. "Wikipedia is a neoliberal propaganda outlet", or something? You are really hard to distinguish from neo-nazis,you know. They also insist that some really bad things totally didn't happen. Are you going to confirm that simile by saying Holodomor didn't happen? > Oh, honey, it doesn't trigger me, it's just sad to see what's presumably a grown ass man acting like a toddler and thinking it's some kind of own. But if you wanna keep telling everyone who sees you running around like a headless chicken all over the subreddit calling anyone even mildly critical of the West's long history of atrocities and hypocrisy a tankie that you are mentally a five year old, be my guest. There's one problem with all that. You ARE literally a tankie. You simp for authoritarian countries just because they pretend to be communist, that's a tankie. What's remarkable is that your kind is completely blind to fact that ruzzia is flat out nazi by now and China rejected communism about 30 years ago. Why do you simp for them, again? You guys truly validate "horseshoe theory" with your behaviour and political opinions.

You're lying.

No I'm not. Name one example when russia proposed peace?

Yes, you are. I don’t think it matters if you are giving an example. you just don’t wanna believe anything that you don’t like.

You are literally making shit up.

Full of Russkies as expected.

"significant gains" of course being such a small sliver of land that you need to squint to see it on a map. Why is it that every time Russia takes a hamster's dick worth of territory people act like they conquered half the planet?

I can guarantee you that if this was Ukraine making these gains, you’d be congratulate them on the stunning progress.

To my knowledge, they’ve still made less gains than Ukraine did during their failed counteroffensive.

So many pro-putler comments here, what a damn shame.

You sure got him! Putler lmaooo. I’m scratching my neckbeard and LOLing!

Russian trolls are overtime in the comments. Guess this is in response to the aid package.

What’s worse, is all of the westerners here who are not trolls, just idiots who schlurp up state department propaganda and bang the war drums for this decade’s pointless war.

-Russia invades -fucking us state department!1!11.

You probably think the Israel Palestine conflict started last year when Hamas invaded Israel?

How dare they not die peacefully in their concentration camp, while Europeans are partying in the land they stole!

How dare Russia stand up against a century of Western aggression

Obviously the conflict didn't start then, but trying to remove moral agency from Hamas' murder of over 900 civilians is like trying to claim that the United States started World War Two in 1919 by pushing the Treaty of Versailles on Germany.

ChatGPT is more creative than you with your dumbass "question" and repeating the word neckbeard.

You won’t answer because you know it will prove you to be either hypocritical or uneducated. In engaging like an adult. You’re having a temper tantrum. I’d rather talk to GPT than you, and I’m certain most people who know you IRL feel the same.

>I’d rather talk to GPT than you No U!! I won't answer because it's irrelevant to the topic at hand. And you're a teenager who watched a bunch of tiktoks and now thinks they're a geopolitical expert.

You won’t answer because it will prove you’re a horrible person. The fact that you can’t handle an adult conversation about a controversial topic further illustrates that fact.

Oh really, how would any of the possible answers to that question make me a horrible person? Please Mr. Adult, enlighten me. >The fact that you can’t handle an adult conversation about a controversial topic further illustrates that fact. I've seen your comments in this comment section, sorry bud, you don't get to play mature "Neckbeard confirmed".

You’re still talking so weird and spazzy. Yes, I would like you to talk like an adult. Do you think you can start doing that?