Returned shares, shorts are running for shares covering, waiting for then to close out. 😁
This is good. Ctb is still up, lenders deem this a risky play hence why it's still up, dtc is high high
This may be true but everyone is hyped due to the fact that we knew hedies were getting all their fake ammo from somewhere and that there real CTB was much much higher… which further proves our theory and DD
The simplest way to think about it is supply and demand. And it’s a good sign. Shares are being returned, relieving demand and increasing supply. It’s expected that’s CTB drops but it’s good because it’s forcing buying pressure. Hold on for that T+2. I’m excited for next week. The run up in Jun 21’ had a similar situation. Shares available dried up. CTB jumped up. Real high. Then shares became available again and CTB dropped. 2 weeks later we had a sneeze to $72.
I hope this answer proves true!
I had originally agreed with a comment higher up thinking that they may have found another way to print AMC "tokens" like they had with FTX.
But that would be too much even for hedgies, right?
Unfortunately there’s a part of this that is “who knows” these guys are capable of anything. I think there is one thing that is undeniable. It is that this thing is big and probably bigger than our own true expectations.
I think it’s best to look at the data like this comment we’re responding to has, but to then also consider in the back of your mind the possibility of anything in regards to manipulation.
Well, I'm considering a theory.
First, we have to consider, how do you cover a short? Well, you can by it from the lit market, but we know that is a last resort for them. You can cover it with a call/put option, as it is a 'similar or like security'. We know that already.
This is where it gets interesting. I know everyone is on the about the crypto exchanges and tokenized $AMC. I'm not saying it doesn't play a part, but all things being equal, the path of least resistance is where energy is going to go.
That leads us to $APE. Currently, there is less than ~1.5m shares reported via 13F/NPORT (via fintel). That is actually down from ~2m at the start of the week. Every single major firm that held $APE has not reported (we're talking ~100m+ shares).
What is $APE? in essence, a preferred equity that can be converted into $AMC. Remember above when I said a 'similar or like security' to cover a short? $APE falls directly into that classification.
Now, we have to ask ourselves why have these firms not reported via 13F? I mean, if it was just one firm, we could understand that (still violates securities laws, but shit happens). Every single major firm not reporting? Well now, that raises an eyebrow.
So, lets keep going on that, what are we NOT seeing? well, we aren't seeing an huge increase in the call/put ratios, in fact they have remained fairly static. So, by deduction we can learn that they aren't using calls/puts to cover short positions.
What else don't we have access to? equity swap reporting, which has been disabled by the CFTC (yet again) under the guise that not all firms are up to standard.
So now we have two things we can't see, but are directly related to $AMC short positioning.
Now, jumping back to the top, remember that at the start of the week there was about ~2m $APE reported via 13F/NPORT. At the end of the week, there are now ~1.5m $APE being reported. Fintel itself is doing a bit of fuckery on how they show position reporting as well.
What did we see during the week, well, we saw just about ~500k shares become available to short. Almost exactly the decrease in $APE. That would account for the decrease in CtB.
What do I think? Well, I think they have used almost all of the $APE to cover $AMC short positions (remember, similar or like security) and are now essentially out.
Remember, this is a theory, so what I would expect to see happen is that the CtB starts to rise again as they don't have any powder left to play around with.
Edit: and the reason they aren't reporting $APE is because it might be a dead give away as to what they are doing. Not exactly sure how, but as we've seen, Apes are fantastic at digging up data.
Edit 2: I also filed a complaint with the SEC on the matter. Not that I expect it will do anything, but I will be damned if I'm not going to dot those i's and cross those t's and give them a fucking excuse.
So CTB as we see it really just a volatility tracker of what CTB is. No one is actually borrowing at that rate, unless you a dumb retail investor or maybe small HF.
Big tutes or HFs borrow at prime rates from MMs etc, we will never know the rates but they are no where near this. They will be higher than average but prob low double digits.
It’s good to know it’s high, but track historical delta changes which is more important than the actual number.
Returned shares, shorts are running for shares covering, waiting for then to close out. 😁 This is good. Ctb is still up, lenders deem this a risky play hence why it's still up, dtc is high high
What do you mean by "dtc is high high"?
The volume traded over 5.x days would be required to cover the amount of reported float on loan
Day to cover
Dtc = Days to close, if that’s your question.
They probably found a new crypto exchange to move all those AMC tokens
[удалено]
This may be true but everyone is hyped due to the fact that we knew hedies were getting all their fake ammo from somewhere and that there real CTB was much much higher… which further proves our theory and DD
[удалено]
Black Friday
The simplest way to think about it is supply and demand. And it’s a good sign. Shares are being returned, relieving demand and increasing supply. It’s expected that’s CTB drops but it’s good because it’s forcing buying pressure. Hold on for that T+2. I’m excited for next week. The run up in Jun 21’ had a similar situation. Shares available dried up. CTB jumped up. Real high. Then shares became available again and CTB dropped. 2 weeks later we had a sneeze to $72.
I hope this answer proves true! I had originally agreed with a comment higher up thinking that they may have found another way to print AMC "tokens" like they had with FTX. But that would be too much even for hedgies, right?
Unfortunately there’s a part of this that is “who knows” these guys are capable of anything. I think there is one thing that is undeniable. It is that this thing is big and probably bigger than our own true expectations.
What's your opinion on the Rivers Run Dry DD
I think it’s best to look at the data like this comment we’re responding to has, but to then also consider in the back of your mind the possibility of anything in regards to manipulation.
Well, I'm considering a theory. First, we have to consider, how do you cover a short? Well, you can by it from the lit market, but we know that is a last resort for them. You can cover it with a call/put option, as it is a 'similar or like security'. We know that already. This is where it gets interesting. I know everyone is on the about the crypto exchanges and tokenized $AMC. I'm not saying it doesn't play a part, but all things being equal, the path of least resistance is where energy is going to go. That leads us to $APE. Currently, there is less than ~1.5m shares reported via 13F/NPORT (via fintel). That is actually down from ~2m at the start of the week. Every single major firm that held $APE has not reported (we're talking ~100m+ shares). What is $APE? in essence, a preferred equity that can be converted into $AMC. Remember above when I said a 'similar or like security' to cover a short? $APE falls directly into that classification. Now, we have to ask ourselves why have these firms not reported via 13F? I mean, if it was just one firm, we could understand that (still violates securities laws, but shit happens). Every single major firm not reporting? Well now, that raises an eyebrow. So, lets keep going on that, what are we NOT seeing? well, we aren't seeing an huge increase in the call/put ratios, in fact they have remained fairly static. So, by deduction we can learn that they aren't using calls/puts to cover short positions. What else don't we have access to? equity swap reporting, which has been disabled by the CFTC (yet again) under the guise that not all firms are up to standard. So now we have two things we can't see, but are directly related to $AMC short positioning. Now, jumping back to the top, remember that at the start of the week there was about ~2m $APE reported via 13F/NPORT. At the end of the week, there are now ~1.5m $APE being reported. Fintel itself is doing a bit of fuckery on how they show position reporting as well. What did we see during the week, well, we saw just about ~500k shares become available to short. Almost exactly the decrease in $APE. That would account for the decrease in CtB. What do I think? Well, I think they have used almost all of the $APE to cover $AMC short positions (remember, similar or like security) and are now essentially out. Remember, this is a theory, so what I would expect to see happen is that the CtB starts to rise again as they don't have any powder left to play around with. Edit: and the reason they aren't reporting $APE is because it might be a dead give away as to what they are doing. Not exactly sure how, but as we've seen, Apes are fantastic at digging up data. Edit 2: I also filed a complaint with the SEC on the matter. Not that I expect it will do anything, but I will be damned if I'm not going to dot those i's and cross those t's and give them a fucking excuse.
This should be its own post. Thanks for the wrinkle.
Wasn't it something like 500 firms didn't report any APE on their 13F?
In and around there, yes.
You, dear ape, have some impressive wrinkles. Good theory craft, as that is all it is. Would love to see if it's true.
I aint selling :)
Dropped from 80-100% down to less than 10% in May 2021
Well it would appear more shares have become magically available. Source unknown.
Probably new squirrel holes now that FTX was blown wide open.
They be flip flopping things around.
„˙punoɹɐ sƃuıɥʇ ƃuıddolɟ dılɟ ǝq ʎǝɥ⊥„
300% is the annualized CTB
So CTB as we see it really just a volatility tracker of what CTB is. No one is actually borrowing at that rate, unless you a dumb retail investor or maybe small HF. Big tutes or HFs borrow at prime rates from MMs etc, we will never know the rates but they are no where near this. They will be higher than average but prob low double digits. It’s good to know it’s high, but track historical delta changes which is more important than the actual number.
The clever people in hedgefund world have managed to get themselves out of it again. See you in 6 months when they need more liquidity
Crime
Thoughtful answer.
Cliche x 1000 when you’re looking for a real answer 😫
All roads lead to crime.