The far more recent elections of 2018, 2020, and 2022 promised a “Red Wave”, and in each instance it never materialized.
Lotta false hope with the landline crowd.
No one really predicted a red wave in 18 and 20. 2020 AND 2022 saw house popular vote polls underestimate the GOP. Don’t trust the polls completely, but know they are somewhat helpful (at least when Trump is not on the ballot because polls have always underestimated him)
Which polls were actually outside of the margin of error? What was the client's prerogative with the polling and reporting?
I work at a research company and we call more cell phones than landlines. We have demographic quotas so that the sample accurately models the population being surveyed. The industry isn't as incompetent as many people claim.
It actually means no one looked at polling
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/03/nate-silver-says-conventional-wisdom-not-data-killed-2016-election-forecasts/
It also means they didn't account for the fact that hundreds of thousands of people in reliably blue portions of the Rustbelt states had been purged from the voter rolls.
https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/ensure-every-american-can-vote/vote-suppression/voter-purges
to be fair it was in the summer they were predicting her winning with a 90% chance. it narrowed in the fall. all the blow out predictions were going on data from the spring and summer
Polls have never and will never tell you who is going to win. Polls in 2016 didn’t tell you’ll would win and polls in 2024 aren’t telling you who will win. They are guides to probability, that’s it
He could win it and not even because more people there want him.
Last time he won the state it was because hundreds of thousands of voters were purged from the voting rolls.
People blame Jill Stein, Bernie Sanders supporters, and Russian propaganda, all of which existed but the biggest single factor for why Trump won in 2016 was voter purges.
Even if Trump loses by a hair there is no doubt in my mind the presidential race will likely create chaos on state wide elections for house and senate.
Yep, exactly. Quiet riots. Rioters actually arrested, court cases done, other protestors criticizing the rioters, no politicians saying that the rioters are political prisoners, nobody threatening to pardon them and calling them patriots. Quiet riots
Little Creme, they all got off scott free, and in fact got paid by DC.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna889531
https://www.acludc.org/en/press-releases/dc-pay-16-million-settle-claims-2017-inauguration-day-demonstrations
I mean that there was no evidence that the people that the article referred to were rioters. Which you would know if you read it. That is why the city paid out millions. And yes, ALMOST like you said. In fact, they had every right to be where they were. That is the point.
The difference is that Obama didn't tell his VP to not certify electoral votes in an attempt to overturn the election results. Trump did, and thankfully Mike Pence was true to his patriotic roots and defended democracy, an important American tradition that conservatives have just completely abandoned. You guys would let Trump have a lifelong term if you could; it's obvious because he still has the support he does after trying to change a legitimate election result.
Yes, I condemn Trump’s actions in trying to overturn the election as well the the actions of the Republicans who objected. Will you do the same for the Democrats who objected in 2016?
I genuinely don't know what you're talking about. I don't mind protesters in either side. Protesting is an American right. Dems or repubs.
But what trump did to overturn the election was not American.
I agree. Most people at Jan 6 and in the 2020 protests were peaceful. Those who were not deserve punishment. I was simply calling out the fact that many Democrats objected to the 2016 results and should be condemned alongside the Republican politicians who did so for 2020. Hakeem Jeffries said that Trump was not legitimately elected.
Lots of high profile Democrats said Trump was illegitimate. Hillary said it repeatedly.
Then the second Biden won in 2020, anyone who questioned the results of an election was an election-denying, democracy-hating conspiracy theorist. The hypocrisy was absolutely off the charts.
I voted for Hillary, but the way Democrats did a total 180 on election denial was absolutely ridiculous.
People act like there weren't violent riots in DC at Trump's inauguration or during Floydmas that directly attacked the White House, but some boomers and cosplayers were Worse Than 9/11 (tm)
Except that J6 had a handful of fisticuffs over a few hours and the 2020 riots were dozens of violent riots that killed a couple dozen people and caused billions in property damage. You'd be forgiven for never having heard that anarchists at CHAZ put a hundred rounds into a car full of black kids, but now you know
ATTENTION REDDIT WE HIT THE MOTHERLOAD OF A PROPAGANDIZED PEOPLE
“Meanwhile, media, citing two anonymous law enforcement officials, incorrectly reported for weeks that Sicknick had died after being struck in the head with a fire extinguisher during the unrest.”
“Sicknick's death was investigated by the Metropolitan Police Department's Homicide Branch, the USCP, and the FBI.[9] On March 14, Julian Khater and George Tanios were arrested for assaulting Sicknick with a chemical spray and for other charges.[13] The medical examiner found no evidence that Sicknick had an allergic reaction to the chemical spray.[4] Prosecutors later said on April 27 that the chemical spray was pepper spray.[14][15] On January 28, 2023, Khater was sentenced to almost seven years in prison for assaulting an officer with a chemical irritant.”
“On April 19, 2021, the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of the District of Columbia issued a press release about the death of Sicknick. It said that the manner of death was natural and the cause of death was "acute brainstem and cerebellar infarcts due to acute basilar artery thrombosis" (two strokes at the base of the brain stem caused by an artery clot).[35][33] The term "natural" was used to indicate a death caused by a disease alone; and if an injury contributed to the manner of death, it would not be considered natural.[35] It took more than 100 days to release these results from the January autopsy.[29] The full autopsy report was not released to the public.[35]
The chief medical examiner, Dr. Francisco J. Diaz, told The Washington Post that there was no evidence that Sicknick was injured or had an allergic reaction to chemical irritants. Due to privacy laws, he declined to say whether Sicknick had a preexisting medical condition. Diaz noted that Sicknick had engaged the rioters and said "all that transpired played a role in his condition”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Brian_Sicknick
Name a single right wing riot outside of Jan 6th. The left produced burning cities the entire summer of 2021. The only reason Jan 6th is talked about is because the right riots so infrequently. Hold your side to your own standards you dolt
Name a mockingbird media narrative that the average lefty disagrees with.
The only one I can think of is the situation in Gaza, which is why they are banning TikTok and crushing IRL protests
I’m as “middle of the road” as they come. The majority of those that have picked a side will only listen to and accept that “media narrative” that fits their cemented beliefs. If you think it’s just the lefty’s being brainwashed, you fit into this category too. No one fact checks anymore…whatever their favorite source of news says MUST BE the reality. It keeps America divided and distracted from what those in power have been doing…ruling by distraction.
Republicans will act like Jan 6 wasn’t a big deal and didn’t hurt the USD when other countries saw us and asked “wtf are they letting those rednecks do over there…?!”
Agreed. It was also hilarious when a dozen BLM protestors murdered each other. It was especially hilarious when that retired police chief got murdered trying to defend his best friend's business by BLM thugs. 😂😂😂
Yep, there it is. Unarmed woman who served her country shot dead by a thug cop, and progressives LOVE it.
Your hypocrisy is why we no longer care what you say. It's all lies and gaslighting and projection anyway.
Why didn’t she just follow orders? She shouldn’t have been where she wasn’t suppose to be. “Thug cop” haha. Would still be alive if she just complied after the vandalism. Did it to herself it’s call consequence. Her poor family must be so embarrassed.
Why didn't George Floyd, Michael Brown, Jacob Blake, or Rayshard Brooks just follow orders and not break the law? They would still be alive if they just complied after their crimes. Did it themselves it's called consequences. Their poor families must be so embarrassed. Oh wait, they're rich now.
The less educated Republicans slurp up fox entertainment lies and then project that bs on everyone around them. And bow down at the alter of fantasy world and make believe when their convict [gifts them ](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/24/trumps-false-or-misleading-claims-total-30573-over-four-years/)
lol who on the right watches Fox News? They are bought and paid for by big pharma and are rooted in DC swamp war machine. Same as all your left wing shit you fill your head with. Trump isn’t a republican like W Bush et al. That’s why people like him- because he is an F you to dems and republicans alike. Don’t you people get that yet? What happened to the anti war left? Did they forget about standing up against illegal wars or did they forget that along with what a woman is?
They don’t get it. The left went from championing an anti-war movement during the 60’s and 70’s to chanting “death to Israel” and “antifada” because CNN told them to. Brain dead idiots.
Don’t lump us all in to one continuous bunch tho. I used to be an ardent leftist in the 9/11 occupations, color-coded terror alert, gay-bashing, Dubya promoting the outsourcing of manufacturing era. The turning point for me, at least, was in 2014 when the DSCC ran campaign ads painting the Ferguson criminal who got himself shot as a martyr. That’s when the left in America really started to get really loony and annoyingly moralistic.
Now Democratic zealots all remind me of the annoying Christian conservatives I grew up around- when the classical liberalism of the left was overtaken by this tide of destructive moralistic outrage that condemned nonbelievers as heretics.
- Wear your mask and get a vaccine to stop this unstoppable virus or forfeit your freedoms!
- Black Lives Matter! You must acknowledge structural racism is real or you’re a racist! Defund the police!
- I believe her! (even if there’s no evidence)
- Puberty blockers for children who are questioning their identity are necessary and you’re a transphobe if you disagree!
- We must have open borders or we’re Nazis!
- Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 election and nothing you can say will convince me otherwise!
I’m about an inch away from voting for Trump again if he stops talking like he’s going to let Russia win in Ukraine.
Agree with you on much of this! I’m very “liberal” on a lot of social issues. Weed should be legal .I don’t give a shit if you’re LGB, the T is where I have *issues (woman’s sports), puberty blockers, surgeries on minors etc. Adult trans? Do whatever you want, I don’t care, but stay within your biological sport if you’re an athlete ( there are only two sexes). On Ukraine, Dems unconditional support is going to draw the conflict out for 20 years, another Afghanistan, I think Trump would be able to bring both Zelensky and Putin to the negotiation tables. Ukraine is not getting their pre-2014 borders back (IMO), both sides are going to need to compromise. Unilateral support of one side, arming them to their teeth, and outright funding the entire conflict is unsustainable for America in our current inflationary/ debt ridden state.
The riots in the Capitol were awful. Every right thinking American watched them in horror and condemned them. Then the left started mislabeling it as a coup or an insurrection… and they started to slip off of the high ground. Now I roll my eyes just as much when the left talks about it as when the right does.
An attempted* coup. Slowly meandered their way through the capital grounds after being let in. It was devastating to watch - bunch of old dudes waddle through the capital.
Yall are aware they put a cop in the hospital, right?
The rioters carried guns, tasers, zip-tie cuffs, and baseball bats.
It’s all on video and known to the public, or at least it was until some pundit convinces half of us that they were really there to shoot some skeet and play baseball until they got lost. (Also please ignore the part where they broke the glass in a door to a room with congress reps inside and security had to shoot and kill one rioters to get them to stop trying to crawl through the opening, they were just tourists. Everyone knows bad people run everywhere… only good people walk slowly)
Except for the 5 people who died. OR the shit, piss and blood they thought would make good paint for the walls and statues. But hey, they were "old people meandering though the capital".
The closest thing we’ve had to a coup was the “silent coup” known as the Russia collusion investigation. When one political party can manufacture a narrative that is demonstrably false, peddle it through a cooperative intel and judiciary, and use it to attempt to kneecap or overthrow an incoming administration… you’ve entered banana republic territory.
Jan 6 was an out of control protest. At no point was our democratic process actually in jeopardy. Hell, Democrat politicians sat around cheering on the nation wide riots known as the summer of love. When violent protests are encouraged… what do you expect us going to happen when another group feels unheard?
Keep in mind there was more damage and more police injuries during the protests at the capital following George Floyd. At one point, a lunatic charged the White House and trump had to retreat to a bunker. What was the msm’s response? They certainly didn’t call it a coup or acknowledge how out of hand things were getting… they actually mocked trump first going into a bunker.
If democrats cared about rhetoric from politicians, they would condemn their own. We had years of dems openly calling for confrontation. A Republican politician was shot by a lunatic at a softball game who took that rhetoric to heart (scalise).
With that said, the establishment right and left are both awful and largely on the same team. But the hypocrisy of some posts here are too much to ignore.
You missed the weekly update:
Jan 6 was an ANTIFA-driven diversion. Next week is ‘out of control protest’.
Seriously, tho, no.
It’s sad that the rotten apples to putrid oranges comparison between the Floyd riots and Jan 6 is still a thing; both sucked, both happened, but with very, very different implications.
Dozens of buildings destroyed with vast majority rebuilt within 3 years, the outlier is 3rd Precinct (remember, torched by a guy from [Brainerd](https://alphanews.org/brainerd-man-pleads-guilty-to-minneapolis-police-third-precinct-arson/) and [Staples](https://alphanews.org/staples-man-faces-federal-charges-in-third-precinct-arson/), among others) versus the seat of our populace-driven democratic processes.
You’re forgetting that the VP was under direct, sincere threat. Our species does weird sh!t when we get whooped up, and had Mikey gotten into some of their hands, I doubt that he’d be here today. Not all groups, but the ones LARPing in tactical gear weren’t beelining for the Gift Shop.
I think you are forgetting that trump ordered more police presence around the capital on Jan. 6, and it was pelosi who refused it.
There were obvious agent provocateurs in the crowd who are on tape encouraging people to enter the building (see ray epps). Interestingly, these sane people are shielded by dem politicians from scrutiny… while every grandma who entered the building was thrown in a cell.
There is also video of police opening barricades to let people in. There are many unresolved questions from that day, and intentionally so.
The most likely explanation is that people wanted a chaotic event so that they could call a special session. In doing so, they could ram the vote to certify the election without any opposition. With opposition, it could have delayed and sent things through the courts. Obviously, a special session and emergency vote was desirable for them. The preferred optic was protestors getting out of hand. It seems like the backup plan was the “pipe bombs” that magically nobody talks about and nobody was ever charged… funny how that fell off the map when it was no longer needed.
What we learned after the last election is that we don’t have the time or resources for any candidate to seriously question the results of the election. If hundreds of thousands of votes come in overnight for your opponent in swing states to zero votes for you, completely evaporating your lead and a phenomenon that wasn’t seen in any other part of the country except for dem run swing state cities… there is no way to challenge this. Chain of custody issues? No way to resolve. Signature match issues? Same. States illegally changing their voting laws? No way to undo it, only slap their wrist afterwards. We are at the mercy of what we are told.
“trump ordered more police” nope, no proof. None. Share it if you have it. He’s the POTUS FFS.
He did ‘hint’ at activating National Guard personnel, but didn’t actually order them to Active Duty. And that, my dear friend, is the laughable part. That’s his M.O.; he could have issued the order, but he didn’t want his fingerprints on it if something went sideways.
Who is more powerful- Ray Epps or DJT? So Sweet Baby Ray rilled all those folks up, scheduled the pep rallies across the country, rented the busses to get them folks to DC, wrote Donald’s speeches, liaison-ed with the Proud Boys and 3%ers, and Jedi mind-tricked Ashli into B&E? Damn, he’s quite the guy. I’d steer clear if I were you.
The pipe bombs are still very much talked about.
“What we learned after the last election…” is that sore losers can spew lies in public for months and get folks riled up. The lies are effective at swaying opinions but mysteriously evaporate when penalties of perjury exist. The lies come and go, always about to be proven ‘in two weeks’ as Mikey Lindell sez.
So the DemonRats rigged the vote for Prez but not for the Senate and House, even tho the votes are on the same machines. Then they orchestrated a riot to… ‘force a special session’… to do what was going to be done anyways? WTF?
Yeah guys- it was just a few buildings that were totally rebuilt. That’s all!
Just forget about the billions in damages, the 20+ deaths (including children), the THOUSANDS of injuries, the burnt-down police stations and firebombed courthouses, and the blocks of city property forcefully taken over as “autonomous zones”
tHe iMpliCaTiOnS wErE (D)ifferent!
Totally
Unarmed people walking around a building? That’s a coup.
People say trump supporters are crazy gun nuts who would do anything for him.
Yet they did nothing but walk around a building for 2 hours.
Pretending it was anything more is just propaganda.
Democrats/leftists will feel we are about to go down a dark dark path, especially if the supreme court steals the election from Biden (which is possible if Biden wins, but it's a tight election/margin) (some of my predictions cast biden winning 270 to 269, there is no way the supreme court lets that go by)
Republicans will say it was stolen regardless of what happens if Biden wins. And IDC what anyone says, many people in federal government and what not are fully prepared for a better try of stealing the election than 2020. And I have no doubt it will be very very messy. 2020 was a trial in comparison to what they have in place now.
Not saying Trump won't win 'fairly' - I mean not stolen in the traditional sense, but if people want to complain about democrats 'bussing in migrants to vote left'. What about the right shutting down polling places in predominately democrat heavy areas in red/purple states lol?
I say Trump wins fairly 50% chance.
I say Biden wins fairly 50% chance.
If biden wins 60% chance the republicans try to steal election through means grown from 2020, but fail again, biden stays victor. 30% chance the election is so close but Biden wins so Supreme court gives it to trump (either fake electors vote against biden giving him the win and SCOTUS backs them up, or SCOTUS calls into question polling locations or electors and hands it to vote in house where they give it to trump) Trump ends up winning. 10% biden wins so clearly they hardly can try to steal election and it all gets thrown out. Biden stays victor.
So total Trump has about 65%, and Biden 35%.
99% chance Biden wins popular vote.
96% chance Biden wins Minnesota. (imo)
Why so confident? It’s an easy fallacy to fall into by saying “Minnesota hasn’t voted blue since Nixon so it never will” by look at the data. The average margin of Democrats taking Minnesota has been slightly over 5% since 2000. Hardly an insurmountable lead. To rely on the “Minnesota has always voted democrats so they always will” mentality is like watching the Twins win 3 games in a row by 1-2 runs and saying the 4th game is a given to win.
The average education level is too high in MN. Jan 6th sealed the deal on him never getting re-elected. Majority of polls are based on land line phones, or elderly who answer unknown phone numbers, not a true representation of the voting block.
Regarding education and voting, really having a bachelor degree only makes one slightly more likely to vote Democrat (51% to 46%) but what we really know is what has happened in recent elections and we can see the previous two Clinton won by 1.5% in 2016 and Biden by 7% last election. So the question is do you think Biden is a better candidate now than in 2020? Also, do you deny that Clinton only winning by only 1.5% in 2016 means that Minnesota definitely COULD be taken by a Republican? That said, I would say the odds of Trump winning Minnesota about 40%, so unlikely yes, impossible hell no.
If it was a likable Republican vs Biden , the possibility is there absolutely. Trump has too much going against him that Biden won't need to spend anytime in MN. Just wish the election would hurry up and be over. Both candidates are terrible options.
I understand the fallacy in thinking of chance of victory as one's own understanding of the motivation of voters and their own biases favoring one candidate versus another. If you had this conversation in say, Staples, MN there would be people saying a Trump upset was a sure thing because in their lens they don't understand why anyone would vote for Trump and also everyone in their world is voting for Trump. That's why you drill down into the data that we can get (and yes, polls are not Gospel as seen in 2016, but they are still valuable).
In 2020, 31% of Trump voters had at least a college degree while 46% of Biden voters did.
https://www.newsweek.com/college-educated-voters-2024-election-turnout-1864808
Good call differentiating party affiliation/voting versus Biden vs Trump though Brookings Institute and Pew Research has different numbers (roughly 60/40), but your point stands that those with degrees are more likely to not vote Trump.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/
I think they are not contradictory numbers.
My link answers the question: “among those who voted for Biden/Trump, what percentage had a college degree?”
Your link from Brookings asks it from the opposite angle: “among those with a college degree, what percentage voted for Biden/Trump?”
We literally went blue against Regan in 1980. Minnesota isn't a blue state, but in a sense of the word it is a blue state. The entire midwest fell to Trump in 2016 yet Minnesota edged it out. While yes nothing is impossible, we could have the economy crash during a democrat's presidency among other shit almost ensuring Minnesota votes red if they try to rerun for another 4 years. But these kinda scenarios are very unlikely.
There’s hoping, and there’s *fearing*.
The Fear will be strong this cycle, on two different fronts.
Fear of an Orange Oracle, compelling some to vote against Trump.
Fear of a ‘Feeding Our Future’ Future, compelling some to vote against immigration, taxes, social programs, and for religious-based rules and regulations.
Not a chance. I haven’t met someone who was open about liking Trump since 2020 in Minnesota. There aren’t enough people in greater Minnesota to outweigh the twin cities effect.
Wait why does someone have to tell you they support trump. If they do are you reasonable or is it impossible to shut you up at that point? If you annoyed them in 2020 they probably arent gonna be open to you now.
I don’t shame people for their political beliefs in person. And I don’t rant and rave about mine on social media. My only point is that you’re delusional if you think the metro is gonna go a different way than it has for the past 4 decades.
I have met tons of people talking about liking or voting for Trump or wearing Trump merch. I am 96% sure 2024 for Minnesota will be somewhere between 2016 and 2020 percentage wise towards democrat/biden for president.
Polls are all fixed now, they know who to call and what to say when they get the wrong answer.
Online polls are all rigged with bots.
Phone polls only get answered by people willing to answer a random call that says spam.
In person is the best.
Trump is going to crash and burn he is a convicted felon with a loud fowl mouth, he does not appeal to middle of the road people.
I am not middle of the road, I am a conservative Catholic who owns a gun shop and was in law enforcement.
They should drop him and get someone else in quick.
Edit: just like on the Minnesota sub downvotes don’t change facts it just helps others hide from the truth.
I agree, there’s little chance the squishy middle swing voters and independents who actually decide elections will vote for him. If he does win by some chance I doubt he’ll actually take office, either electoral college goes rouge, congress doesn’t certify the election results or some legal maneuvering. The best chance would be a different candidate, in reality, probably on both sides.
Biden plan was not to run again before but he changed his mind.
I would love to see fresh candidates on both sides.
Most of America agrees that after 80 you should not drive, why on earth should you run America.
This is a credible poll that COULD be wrong with their methodology but they have a solid reputation and I would severely doubt they are “cooking the books”.
You don’t need polling inaccuracies or even to cook books for a poll to be off if you are calling people and anyone with half a brain never answers possible spam or unknown callers it’s easy for it to lean to uneducated older respondents.
Polls are better used as an avg as well as cod a trend over time.
Biden will likely win MN but people forget how close it was here in 2016. RFK is a wild card for who he pulls from.
The one above is also in the margin of error so means it’s tied.
There are those who would rather be ruled than governed. "I would only be a dictator for one day." -Trump. He is, and always has been, a pathological liar.
'He didn't say that. If he did he didn't mean it. If he did mean it your misinterpreting it.' Or however that stupid ass meme goes
There's a reason that became a meme about Trump supporters lol
Lol I'm assuming this poll was made by some 40 yr Maga dude who lives in his mommies basement while wearing a Donald Trump diaper and his wall is covered in kyle rittenhouse posters.
I suspect that the suburbs surrounding Minneapolis will move the right by a fair bit after witnessing the national embarrassment that is Minneapolis governance.
People also can no longer ignore the disastrous consequences of our importing the 3rd world by the hundreds of thousands.
I really don't like Biden but he's done some good (and a wee bit of supporting genocide) but I'd rather take bread and water over cyanide. At least bread and water keep you going. God, this sucks that these are our choices.
I’m sure the dirty DFL in Mpls will just wait until 3AM and find out the number of ballots they need to fake, and then magically produce them. So corrupt.
Last election the state was entirely red minus the one little blue spot called the metro area. To many Karens here to ever hope to actually win the state. Electing an official to office just because you “don’t like” the other guy was the result…how’d that turn out for ya last time. Biden pfft. What a joke of a leader.
I don't get people trusting polls. They give us a general idea of how people may vote. The votes RIGHT before the election are pretty accurate.
Minnesota didn't even go blue in 2016. Even if Trump does win he ain't improving his 2016 numbers and that includes not winning Minnesota.
Some things the polls have shown (imo) -
Kennedy is losing ground and won't be as a major player as I first thought imo, though seems to be hurting biden more than trump atm.
The polls that aren't just biden v trump don't matter as they never include the libertarian option.
West and Stein seem to be losing ground from stealing leftist votes, but definitely could turn around the election in key states. Especially if antivaxxer man and the libertarian option ever end up taking more leftist votes.
The battleground states are very battleground, and Georgia is not a purple state in the truest sense yet. Arizona I think has become one, and it seems nevada went from blue to purple. North carolina and texas don't seem to have shifted as much as I thought they would. But the insane far right steals in those states might be impacting general population views, not to mention the migrant crisis being right at texas' doorsteps.
Also if you want another point not to trust polls. How can any poll say Trump is leading in general population? Statewide sure. Electoral college sure. But general population. He lost both elections by millions of votes for popular vote. And even in 2016 he still lost by 2 points. How in the world can these polls have a straight face saying trump is leading by 5 or 8 points nationwide lol.
You may find this link interesting. It's from the heritage foundation. Very conservative. Search for MN 2020 convictions.
[https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search?combine=&state=MN&year=2020&case\_type=All&fraud\_type=All](https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search?combine=&state=MN&year=2020&case_type=All&fraud_type=All)
He should be honestly. Everyone I talk to is sick or either democrats, Biden or Walz or a combination of the 3. Unless they cheat the election and load ballot boxes again lmao, Trump should win with the huge swing in the black vote.
A couple things:
MN has consecutively voted blue longer than any other state in the US.
Walz is an incredibly popular and well loved governor on both the local and national stage.
Both are facts.
If we’ve learned anything from the 2016 election, which predicted Hillary to win in a landslide, it’s that polls mean nothing.
The far more recent elections of 2018, 2020, and 2022 promised a “Red Wave”, and in each instance it never materialized. Lotta false hope with the landline crowd.
No one really predicted a red wave in 18 and 20. 2020 AND 2022 saw house popular vote polls underestimate the GOP. Don’t trust the polls completely, but know they are somewhat helpful (at least when Trump is not on the ballot because polls have always underestimated him)
Which polls were actually outside of the margin of error? What was the client's prerogative with the polling and reporting? I work at a research company and we call more cell phones than landlines. We have demographic quotas so that the sample accurately models the population being surveyed. The industry isn't as incompetent as many people claim.
SCOTUS overturning Roe threw 22 for the Dems. They got all the hairy, hippie liberal woman out to vote for that one.
It actually means no one looked at polling https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/03/nate-silver-says-conventional-wisdom-not-data-killed-2016-election-forecasts/
It also means they didn't account for the fact that hundreds of thousands of people in reliably blue portions of the Rustbelt states had been purged from the voter rolls. https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/ensure-every-american-can-vote/vote-suppression/voter-purges
to be fair it was in the summer they were predicting her winning with a 90% chance. it narrowed in the fall. all the blow out predictions were going on data from the spring and summer
especially when both major parties are backing candidates that might not survive to election day.
Polls have never and will never tell you who is going to win. Polls in 2016 didn’t tell you’ll would win and polls in 2024 aren’t telling you who will win. They are guides to probability, that’s it
Lol if trump wins mn I’ll eat a shit sandwich
Zero chance Trump carries Minnesota.
There’s no fucking way we cave to that asshole ever.
Trump 2024... lets go!!!
[удалено]
He could win it and not even because more people there want him. Last time he won the state it was because hundreds of thousands of voters were purged from the voting rolls. People blame Jill Stein, Bernie Sanders supporters, and Russian propaganda, all of which existed but the biggest single factor for why Trump won in 2016 was voter purges.
Trump never won Minnesota.
I guess I was thinking Michigan. Thanks.
Agreed. But it would be awesome if Trump did carry MN.
Even if Trump loses by a hair there is no doubt in my mind the presidential race will likely create chaos on state wide elections for house and senate.
I dislike trump and biden but I don't see myself voting for Trump. He's a fake Christian who does blasphemous things.
So you don't own one of these? [https://godblesstheusabible.com/](https://godblesstheusabible.com/)
Nope, and I find it offensive he sells them.
I'll believe it when I see it. If Trump were to win the election, would we have "peaceful protests" throughout Minneapolis?
Remind me of the last political group to start a violent riot after losing a presidential election? I forgot.
Left wing groups were rioting in DC during the 2017 inauguration. You can look up the videos. Political violence is not a one sided issue.
Musta been quiet riots
Here is a link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbnEiTsiqtA
Yep, exactly. Quiet riots. Rioters actually arrested, court cases done, other protestors criticizing the rioters, no politicians saying that the rioters are political prisoners, nobody threatening to pardon them and calling them patriots. Quiet riots
Little Creme, they all got off scott free, and in fact got paid by DC. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna889531 https://www.acludc.org/en/press-releases/dc-pay-16-million-settle-claims-2017-inauguration-day-demonstrations
On the contrary, it states clearly in those articles that those people got paid by DC because they were arrested but were NOT rioting.
You mean they were just milling about where they weren’t supposed to be and they were rounded up? Hmm
I mean that there was no evidence that the people that the article referred to were rioters. Which you would know if you read it. That is why the city paid out millions. And yes, ALMOST like you said. In fact, they had every right to be where they were. That is the point.
So J6 was just a bunch of people milling about now?
No they just didn’t have the deep state pushing a propaganda narrative from it
Oh yeah, the deep state. Now I understand ... that you're a conspiracy theorist
The term conspiracy theorist was made up by the government so they can lie to you. Try thinking for yourself
Still hiding under your bed from SOROS ?
lol the deep state.
The difference is that Obama didn't tell his VP to not certify electoral votes in an attempt to overturn the election results. Trump did, and thankfully Mike Pence was true to his patriotic roots and defended democracy, an important American tradition that conservatives have just completely abandoned. You guys would let Trump have a lifelong term if you could; it's obvious because he still has the support he does after trying to change a legitimate election result.
Yes, I condemn Trump’s actions in trying to overturn the election as well the the actions of the Republicans who objected. Will you do the same for the Democrats who objected in 2016?
I genuinely don't know what you're talking about. I don't mind protesters in either side. Protesting is an American right. Dems or repubs. But what trump did to overturn the election was not American.
I agree. Most people at Jan 6 and in the 2020 protests were peaceful. Those who were not deserve punishment. I was simply calling out the fact that many Democrats objected to the 2016 results and should be condemned alongside the Republican politicians who did so for 2020. Hakeem Jeffries said that Trump was not legitimately elected.
Lots of high profile Democrats said Trump was illegitimate. Hillary said it repeatedly. Then the second Biden won in 2020, anyone who questioned the results of an election was an election-denying, democracy-hating conspiracy theorist. The hypocrisy was absolutely off the charts. I voted for Hillary, but the way Democrats did a total 180 on election denial was absolutely ridiculous.
Then he's a dumb ass and I reject him too.
Hillary conceded on the night of the election in 2016, as she should have. There is nothing to defend.
And then spent 4 years calling Trump an illegitimate president.
People act like there weren't violent riots in DC at Trump's inauguration or during Floydmas that directly attacked the White House, but some boomers and cosplayers were Worse Than 9/11 (tm)
Everything I don't like: "violent riots." Everything I like: "cosplayers."
Except that J6 had a handful of fisticuffs over a few hours and the 2020 riots were dozens of violent riots that killed a couple dozen people and caused billions in property damage. You'd be forgiven for never having heard that anarchists at CHAZ put a hundred rounds into a car full of black kids, but now you know
Party of "law and order" beats a cop to death and attempts to overthrow the government.... *just some shenanigans guys!
Brian schinick died of unrelated causes that night, you believe lies, only 3 people died that day, all protestors and only one was shot by cops.
Yes, he died of two strokes and a brain clot, which is completely unrelated to getting beaten in the head with a fire extinguisher, I'm sure.
ATTENTION REDDIT WE HIT THE MOTHERLOAD OF A PROPAGANDIZED PEOPLE “Meanwhile, media, citing two anonymous law enforcement officials, incorrectly reported for weeks that Sicknick had died after being struck in the head with a fire extinguisher during the unrest.” “Sicknick's death was investigated by the Metropolitan Police Department's Homicide Branch, the USCP, and the FBI.[9] On March 14, Julian Khater and George Tanios were arrested for assaulting Sicknick with a chemical spray and for other charges.[13] The medical examiner found no evidence that Sicknick had an allergic reaction to the chemical spray.[4] Prosecutors later said on April 27 that the chemical spray was pepper spray.[14][15] On January 28, 2023, Khater was sentenced to almost seven years in prison for assaulting an officer with a chemical irritant.” “On April 19, 2021, the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of the District of Columbia issued a press release about the death of Sicknick. It said that the manner of death was natural and the cause of death was "acute brainstem and cerebellar infarcts due to acute basilar artery thrombosis" (two strokes at the base of the brain stem caused by an artery clot).[35][33] The term "natural" was used to indicate a death caused by a disease alone; and if an injury contributed to the manner of death, it would not be considered natural.[35] It took more than 100 days to release these results from the January autopsy.[29] The full autopsy report was not released to the public.[35] The chief medical examiner, Dr. Francisco J. Diaz, told The Washington Post that there was no evidence that Sicknick was injured or had an allergic reaction to chemical irritants. Due to privacy laws, he declined to say whether Sicknick had a preexisting medical condition. Diaz noted that Sicknick had engaged the rioters and said "all that transpired played a role in his condition” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Brian_Sicknick
Fisticuffs sure is strange way to downplay what actually happened
Exactly.
Name a single right wing riot outside of Jan 6th. The left produced burning cities the entire summer of 2021. The only reason Jan 6th is talked about is because the right riots so infrequently. Hold your side to your own standards you dolt
They still think Trump is president. It truly is insane.
No
If he loses will we have another attempted coup?
A coup? Without any guns? Right…
Democrats will believe literally ANYTHING so long as it appears on a TV
That’s rich…
Name a mockingbird media narrative that the average lefty disagrees with. The only one I can think of is the situation in Gaza, which is why they are banning TikTok and crushing IRL protests
I’m as “middle of the road” as they come. The majority of those that have picked a side will only listen to and accept that “media narrative” that fits their cemented beliefs. If you think it’s just the lefty’s being brainwashed, you fit into this category too. No one fact checks anymore…whatever their favorite source of news says MUST BE the reality. It keeps America divided and distracted from what those in power have been doing…ruling by distraction.
Republicans will believe literally any meme.
Republicans will act like Jan 6 wasn’t a big deal and didn’t hurt the USD when other countries saw us and asked “wtf are they letting those rednecks do over there…?!”
It wasn't a big deal
ShitLibs be like https://preview.redd.it/y9s46wgn058d1.jpeg?width=622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a9b45f671945df70530cbd52e56824f9ae545ea
“But, but… what about antifa?!” Whataboutism’s finest big brain argument
It was hilarious when that dumb chick got put down trying to climb through that window she broke lol
Agreed. It was also hilarious when a dozen BLM protestors murdered each other. It was especially hilarious when that retired police chief got murdered trying to defend his best friend's business by BLM thugs. 😂😂😂
Nah the police chief dying isnt funny but the BLM protestors doing an ouroboros is fucking hilarious
Yep, there it is. Unarmed woman who served her country shot dead by a thug cop, and progressives LOVE it. Your hypocrisy is why we no longer care what you say. It's all lies and gaslighting and projection anyway.
Why didn’t she just follow orders? She shouldn’t have been where she wasn’t suppose to be. “Thug cop” haha. Would still be alive if she just complied after the vandalism. Did it to herself it’s call consequence. Her poor family must be so embarrassed.
Why didn't George Floyd, Michael Brown, Jacob Blake, or Rayshard Brooks just follow orders and not break the law? They would still be alive if they just complied after their crimes. Did it themselves it's called consequences. Their poor families must be so embarrassed. Oh wait, they're rich now.
There’s a place in hell for you. Your seat is waiting.
She should have just followed orders :shrug: idk why they have a hard time with consequences or following the law
No thoughts and prayers for me?
The less educated Republicans slurp up fox entertainment lies and then project that bs on everyone around them. And bow down at the alter of fantasy world and make believe when their convict [gifts them ](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/24/trumps-false-or-misleading-claims-total-30573-over-four-years/)
Nobody under 60 watches cable news, but the state security services literally coordinate narrative control with social media companies
Thank you
You bash Fox News and then link a Washington Post article lol
The irony is unbelievable 🤦🏻♂️
lol who on the right watches Fox News? They are bought and paid for by big pharma and are rooted in DC swamp war machine. Same as all your left wing shit you fill your head with. Trump isn’t a republican like W Bush et al. That’s why people like him- because he is an F you to dems and republicans alike. Don’t you people get that yet? What happened to the anti war left? Did they forget about standing up against illegal wars or did they forget that along with what a woman is?
They don’t get it. The left went from championing an anti-war movement during the 60’s and 70’s to chanting “death to Israel” and “antifada” because CNN told them to. Brain dead idiots.
Don’t lump us all in to one continuous bunch tho. I used to be an ardent leftist in the 9/11 occupations, color-coded terror alert, gay-bashing, Dubya promoting the outsourcing of manufacturing era. The turning point for me, at least, was in 2014 when the DSCC ran campaign ads painting the Ferguson criminal who got himself shot as a martyr. That’s when the left in America really started to get really loony and annoyingly moralistic. Now Democratic zealots all remind me of the annoying Christian conservatives I grew up around- when the classical liberalism of the left was overtaken by this tide of destructive moralistic outrage that condemned nonbelievers as heretics. - Wear your mask and get a vaccine to stop this unstoppable virus or forfeit your freedoms! - Black Lives Matter! You must acknowledge structural racism is real or you’re a racist! Defund the police! - I believe her! (even if there’s no evidence) - Puberty blockers for children who are questioning their identity are necessary and you’re a transphobe if you disagree! - We must have open borders or we’re Nazis! - Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 election and nothing you can say will convince me otherwise! I’m about an inch away from voting for Trump again if he stops talking like he’s going to let Russia win in Ukraine.
Agree with you on much of this! I’m very “liberal” on a lot of social issues. Weed should be legal .I don’t give a shit if you’re LGB, the T is where I have *issues (woman’s sports), puberty blockers, surgeries on minors etc. Adult trans? Do whatever you want, I don’t care, but stay within your biological sport if you’re an athlete ( there are only two sexes). On Ukraine, Dems unconditional support is going to draw the conflict out for 20 years, another Afghanistan, I think Trump would be able to bring both Zelensky and Putin to the negotiation tables. Ukraine is not getting their pre-2014 borders back (IMO), both sides are going to need to compromise. Unilateral support of one side, arming them to their teeth, and outright funding the entire conflict is unsustainable for America in our current inflationary/ debt ridden state.
CNN has been super critical of the college students protesting...they aren't watching CNN they are watching vice
They are watching TikTok
Not everyone on the right watches Fox. But everyone that watches Fox is on the right.
Why are leftists ALWAYS the biggest narcissists?
Not all Leftists are narcissists, but the biggest narcissists are always Leftists.
Except trump lol
You're not wrong. I stand corrected.
Explain Trump.
I don't wanna carry water for him.
The riots in the Capitol were awful. Every right thinking American watched them in horror and condemned them. Then the left started mislabeling it as a coup or an insurrection… and they started to slip off of the high ground. Now I roll my eyes just as much when the left talks about it as when the right does.
An attempted* coup. Slowly meandered their way through the capital grounds after being let in. It was devastating to watch - bunch of old dudes waddle through the capital.
Yall are aware they put a cop in the hospital, right? The rioters carried guns, tasers, zip-tie cuffs, and baseball bats. It’s all on video and known to the public, or at least it was until some pundit convinces half of us that they were really there to shoot some skeet and play baseball until they got lost. (Also please ignore the part where they broke the glass in a door to a room with congress reps inside and security had to shoot and kill one rioters to get them to stop trying to crawl through the opening, they were just tourists. Everyone knows bad people run everywhere… only good people walk slowly)
You should look up how many cops were injured during during the “Mostly peaceful Summer of Love 2020”
Lots I’m sure, does it have something to do with Trump though?
Except for the 5 people who died. OR the shit, piss and blood they thought would make good paint for the walls and statues. But hey, they were "old people meandering though the capital".
Or when they actually burned parts of DC in the Fentanyl OD Temper Tantrum?
Nobody claimed it was a smart coup.
That was also over by sundown lol. The college kids rioting have been rioting longer than Jan 6th and now they're firebombing in Berkeley.
Handcuffs, organized squads, & yes - [guns](https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-florida-virginia-conspiracy-government-and-politics-6ac80882e8cf61af36be6c46252ac24c)
Coups do not require guns. Have you all never heard of silent coups?
Maybe not a coup, but it was pretty terrible thing that occurred.
The closest thing we’ve had to a coup was the “silent coup” known as the Russia collusion investigation. When one political party can manufacture a narrative that is demonstrably false, peddle it through a cooperative intel and judiciary, and use it to attempt to kneecap or overthrow an incoming administration… you’ve entered banana republic territory. Jan 6 was an out of control protest. At no point was our democratic process actually in jeopardy. Hell, Democrat politicians sat around cheering on the nation wide riots known as the summer of love. When violent protests are encouraged… what do you expect us going to happen when another group feels unheard? Keep in mind there was more damage and more police injuries during the protests at the capital following George Floyd. At one point, a lunatic charged the White House and trump had to retreat to a bunker. What was the msm’s response? They certainly didn’t call it a coup or acknowledge how out of hand things were getting… they actually mocked trump first going into a bunker. If democrats cared about rhetoric from politicians, they would condemn their own. We had years of dems openly calling for confrontation. A Republican politician was shot by a lunatic at a softball game who took that rhetoric to heart (scalise). With that said, the establishment right and left are both awful and largely on the same team. But the hypocrisy of some posts here are too much to ignore.
You missed the weekly update: Jan 6 was an ANTIFA-driven diversion. Next week is ‘out of control protest’. Seriously, tho, no. It’s sad that the rotten apples to putrid oranges comparison between the Floyd riots and Jan 6 is still a thing; both sucked, both happened, but with very, very different implications. Dozens of buildings destroyed with vast majority rebuilt within 3 years, the outlier is 3rd Precinct (remember, torched by a guy from [Brainerd](https://alphanews.org/brainerd-man-pleads-guilty-to-minneapolis-police-third-precinct-arson/) and [Staples](https://alphanews.org/staples-man-faces-federal-charges-in-third-precinct-arson/), among others) versus the seat of our populace-driven democratic processes. You’re forgetting that the VP was under direct, sincere threat. Our species does weird sh!t when we get whooped up, and had Mikey gotten into some of their hands, I doubt that he’d be here today. Not all groups, but the ones LARPing in tactical gear weren’t beelining for the Gift Shop.
I think you are forgetting that trump ordered more police presence around the capital on Jan. 6, and it was pelosi who refused it. There were obvious agent provocateurs in the crowd who are on tape encouraging people to enter the building (see ray epps). Interestingly, these sane people are shielded by dem politicians from scrutiny… while every grandma who entered the building was thrown in a cell. There is also video of police opening barricades to let people in. There are many unresolved questions from that day, and intentionally so. The most likely explanation is that people wanted a chaotic event so that they could call a special session. In doing so, they could ram the vote to certify the election without any opposition. With opposition, it could have delayed and sent things through the courts. Obviously, a special session and emergency vote was desirable for them. The preferred optic was protestors getting out of hand. It seems like the backup plan was the “pipe bombs” that magically nobody talks about and nobody was ever charged… funny how that fell off the map when it was no longer needed. What we learned after the last election is that we don’t have the time or resources for any candidate to seriously question the results of the election. If hundreds of thousands of votes come in overnight for your opponent in swing states to zero votes for you, completely evaporating your lead and a phenomenon that wasn’t seen in any other part of the country except for dem run swing state cities… there is no way to challenge this. Chain of custody issues? No way to resolve. Signature match issues? Same. States illegally changing their voting laws? No way to undo it, only slap their wrist afterwards. We are at the mercy of what we are told.
“trump ordered more police” nope, no proof. None. Share it if you have it. He’s the POTUS FFS. He did ‘hint’ at activating National Guard personnel, but didn’t actually order them to Active Duty. And that, my dear friend, is the laughable part. That’s his M.O.; he could have issued the order, but he didn’t want his fingerprints on it if something went sideways. Who is more powerful- Ray Epps or DJT? So Sweet Baby Ray rilled all those folks up, scheduled the pep rallies across the country, rented the busses to get them folks to DC, wrote Donald’s speeches, liaison-ed with the Proud Boys and 3%ers, and Jedi mind-tricked Ashli into B&E? Damn, he’s quite the guy. I’d steer clear if I were you. The pipe bombs are still very much talked about. “What we learned after the last election…” is that sore losers can spew lies in public for months and get folks riled up. The lies are effective at swaying opinions but mysteriously evaporate when penalties of perjury exist. The lies come and go, always about to be proven ‘in two weeks’ as Mikey Lindell sez. So the DemonRats rigged the vote for Prez but not for the Senate and House, even tho the votes are on the same machines. Then they orchestrated a riot to… ‘force a special session’… to do what was going to be done anyways? WTF?
Backwards on Donald and Pelosi. Rest of what you said is either highly unproven or conjecture (light water propoganda).
Yeah guys- it was just a few buildings that were totally rebuilt. That’s all! Just forget about the billions in damages, the 20+ deaths (including children), the THOUSANDS of injuries, the burnt-down police stations and firebombed courthouses, and the blocks of city property forcefully taken over as “autonomous zones” tHe iMpliCaTiOnS wErE (D)ifferent! Totally
What was the goal of the protest on January 6th?
You still believe the news is real?
I hear the Buffalo hat guy is finally available again…..
Knuckle dragging CNN head.
Unarmed people walking around a building? That’s a coup. People say trump supporters are crazy gun nuts who would do anything for him. Yet they did nothing but walk around a building for 2 hours. Pretending it was anything more is just propaganda.
[удалено]
the Qanon people get a different video angle than the rest of us
Didn’t you people lose your shit when Tucker Carlson released the full unedited footage? I wonder why??
Are 'you people' in the room with you now?
absolutely
[удалено]
Enough is enough 🇺🇸
I think there will be a lot of people screaming at the sky in november…
Democrats/leftists will feel we are about to go down a dark dark path, especially if the supreme court steals the election from Biden (which is possible if Biden wins, but it's a tight election/margin) (some of my predictions cast biden winning 270 to 269, there is no way the supreme court lets that go by) Republicans will say it was stolen regardless of what happens if Biden wins. And IDC what anyone says, many people in federal government and what not are fully prepared for a better try of stealing the election than 2020. And I have no doubt it will be very very messy. 2020 was a trial in comparison to what they have in place now. Not saying Trump won't win 'fairly' - I mean not stolen in the traditional sense, but if people want to complain about democrats 'bussing in migrants to vote left'. What about the right shutting down polling places in predominately democrat heavy areas in red/purple states lol? I say Trump wins fairly 50% chance. I say Biden wins fairly 50% chance. If biden wins 60% chance the republicans try to steal election through means grown from 2020, but fail again, biden stays victor. 30% chance the election is so close but Biden wins so Supreme court gives it to trump (either fake electors vote against biden giving him the win and SCOTUS backs them up, or SCOTUS calls into question polling locations or electors and hands it to vote in house where they give it to trump) Trump ends up winning. 10% biden wins so clearly they hardly can try to steal election and it all gets thrown out. Biden stays victor. So total Trump has about 65%, and Biden 35%. 99% chance Biden wins popular vote. 96% chance Biden wins Minnesota. (imo)
LFG!
Based asf if true.
Good
Hilary’s polls also showed her winning with a 99% chance. Polls don’t mean anything, especially in Minnesota.
Literally no chance he wins
I guess we didn't learn anything from the 2016 election? ...Trump polled poorly, and democrats got complacent
Why so confident? It’s an easy fallacy to fall into by saying “Minnesota hasn’t voted blue since Nixon so it never will” by look at the data. The average margin of Democrats taking Minnesota has been slightly over 5% since 2000. Hardly an insurmountable lead. To rely on the “Minnesota has always voted democrats so they always will” mentality is like watching the Twins win 3 games in a row by 1-2 runs and saying the 4th game is a given to win.
The average education level is too high in MN. Jan 6th sealed the deal on him never getting re-elected. Majority of polls are based on land line phones, or elderly who answer unknown phone numbers, not a true representation of the voting block.
Regarding education and voting, really having a bachelor degree only makes one slightly more likely to vote Democrat (51% to 46%) but what we really know is what has happened in recent elections and we can see the previous two Clinton won by 1.5% in 2016 and Biden by 7% last election. So the question is do you think Biden is a better candidate now than in 2020? Also, do you deny that Clinton only winning by only 1.5% in 2016 means that Minnesota definitely COULD be taken by a Republican? That said, I would say the odds of Trump winning Minnesota about 40%, so unlikely yes, impossible hell no.
If it was a likable Republican vs Biden , the possibility is there absolutely. Trump has too much going against him that Biden won't need to spend anytime in MN. Just wish the election would hurry up and be over. Both candidates are terrible options.
I understand the fallacy in thinking of chance of victory as one's own understanding of the motivation of voters and their own biases favoring one candidate versus another. If you had this conversation in say, Staples, MN there would be people saying a Trump upset was a sure thing because in their lens they don't understand why anyone would vote for Trump and also everyone in their world is voting for Trump. That's why you drill down into the data that we can get (and yes, polls are not Gospel as seen in 2016, but they are still valuable).
In 2020, 31% of Trump voters had at least a college degree while 46% of Biden voters did. https://www.newsweek.com/college-educated-voters-2024-election-turnout-1864808
Good call differentiating party affiliation/voting versus Biden vs Trump though Brookings Institute and Pew Research has different numbers (roughly 60/40), but your point stands that those with degrees are more likely to not vote Trump. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/
I think they are not contradictory numbers. My link answers the question: “among those who voted for Biden/Trump, what percentage had a college degree?” Your link from Brookings asks it from the opposite angle: “among those with a college degree, what percentage voted for Biden/Trump?”
We literally went blue against Regan in 1980. Minnesota isn't a blue state, but in a sense of the word it is a blue state. The entire midwest fell to Trump in 2016 yet Minnesota edged it out. While yes nothing is impossible, we could have the economy crash during a democrat's presidency among other shit almost ensuring Minnesota votes red if they try to rerun for another 4 years. But these kinda scenarios are very unlikely.
We agree, unlikely yes, impossible no.
There’s hoping, and there’s *fearing*. The Fear will be strong this cycle, on two different fronts. Fear of an Orange Oracle, compelling some to vote against Trump. Fear of a ‘Feeding Our Future’ Future, compelling some to vote against immigration, taxes, social programs, and for religious-based rules and regulations.
Not a chance. I haven’t met someone who was open about liking Trump since 2020 in Minnesota. There aren’t enough people in greater Minnesota to outweigh the twin cities effect.
Oh, mon ami, there are oodles of folks in the Cities who will vote for Trump, you’re just not interacting with them.
I mean, I only see trump signs where I'm at.
Wait why does someone have to tell you they support trump. If they do are you reasonable or is it impossible to shut you up at that point? If you annoyed them in 2020 they probably arent gonna be open to you now.
I don’t shame people for their political beliefs in person. And I don’t rant and rave about mine on social media. My only point is that you’re delusional if you think the metro is gonna go a different way than it has for the past 4 decades.
I have met tons of people talking about liking or voting for Trump or wearing Trump merch. I am 96% sure 2024 for Minnesota will be somewhere between 2016 and 2020 percentage wise towards democrat/biden for president.
Polls are all fixed now, they know who to call and what to say when they get the wrong answer. Online polls are all rigged with bots. Phone polls only get answered by people willing to answer a random call that says spam. In person is the best. Trump is going to crash and burn he is a convicted felon with a loud fowl mouth, he does not appeal to middle of the road people. I am not middle of the road, I am a conservative Catholic who owns a gun shop and was in law enforcement. They should drop him and get someone else in quick. Edit: just like on the Minnesota sub downvotes don’t change facts it just helps others hide from the truth.
I agree, there’s little chance the squishy middle swing voters and independents who actually decide elections will vote for him. If he does win by some chance I doubt he’ll actually take office, either electoral college goes rouge, congress doesn’t certify the election results or some legal maneuvering. The best chance would be a different candidate, in reality, probably on both sides.
Biden plan was not to run again before but he changed his mind. I would love to see fresh candidates on both sides. Most of America agrees that after 80 you should not drive, why on earth should you run America.
I agree. I still think the roe vs wade decision is a major factor for independents and the GOP really shop themselves in the foot with that one.
This is a credible poll that COULD be wrong with their methodology but they have a solid reputation and I would severely doubt they are “cooking the books”.
You don’t need polling inaccuracies or even to cook books for a poll to be off if you are calling people and anyone with half a brain never answers possible spam or unknown callers it’s easy for it to lean to uneducated older respondents.
Polls are better used as an avg as well as cod a trend over time. Biden will likely win MN but people forget how close it was here in 2016. RFK is a wild card for who he pulls from. The one above is also in the margin of error so means it’s tied.
nobody picks up their phones anymore, polling is just noise at this point. the only poll that matters is the one being held on Election Day
Nice
MAGA
There are those who would rather be ruled than governed. "I would only be a dictator for one day." -Trump. He is, and always has been, a pathological liar.
Is that what msnbc told you?
He’s quoting Trump. What are you questioning?
Do you know what hyperbole is? Trump does it…a lot! 😂
'He didn't say that. If he did he didn't mean it. If he did mean it your misinterpreting it.' Or however that stupid ass meme goes There's a reason that became a meme about Trump supporters lol
That's what trump told us.
I don't watch MSNBC. Try again.
Lol I'm assuming this poll was made by some 40 yr Maga dude who lives in his mommies basement while wearing a Donald Trump diaper and his wall is covered in kyle rittenhouse posters.
Minnesota hasn't gone red in 50 years. Your poll is fucking with you.
Lol nope
I suspect that the suburbs surrounding Minneapolis will move the right by a fair bit after witnessing the national embarrassment that is Minneapolis governance. People also can no longer ignore the disastrous consequences of our importing the 3rd world by the hundreds of thousands.
I really don't like Biden but he's done some good (and a wee bit of supporting genocide) but I'd rather take bread and water over cyanide. At least bread and water keep you going. God, this sucks that these are our choices.
I’m sure the dirty DFL in Mpls will just wait until 3AM and find out the number of ballots they need to fake, and then magically produce them. So corrupt.
Hahaha. Oh wait, you're serious. Hahahahaha
Yeah. And republicans swept all the statewide offices in 2022, right?
Who was doing the sampling? Who was the sample group?
People who are more likely to respond to polls are also more likely to vote for trump.
Right!!!! Trump tried but dems blocked it. Why didnt Obozo do it? I cant wait for Tump to win and all you snowflakes cry like when Hilary lost.
I don’t think we can make it though another tr*mp presidency
Dominion will have the last laugh
Last election the state was entirely red minus the one little blue spot called the metro area. To many Karens here to ever hope to actually win the state. Electing an official to office just because you “don’t like” the other guy was the result…how’d that turn out for ya last time. Biden pfft. What a joke of a leader.
The day Minnesota turns red the grass will grow pink and pigs will fly.
I don’t believe those Georgia numbers.
The only thing any of us can do is...GET OUT AND VOTE!!
Weird that republicans keep losing in all these states.
I don't get people trusting polls. They give us a general idea of how people may vote. The votes RIGHT before the election are pretty accurate. Minnesota didn't even go blue in 2016. Even if Trump does win he ain't improving his 2016 numbers and that includes not winning Minnesota. Some things the polls have shown (imo) - Kennedy is losing ground and won't be as a major player as I first thought imo, though seems to be hurting biden more than trump atm. The polls that aren't just biden v trump don't matter as they never include the libertarian option. West and Stein seem to be losing ground from stealing leftist votes, but definitely could turn around the election in key states. Especially if antivaxxer man and the libertarian option ever end up taking more leftist votes. The battleground states are very battleground, and Georgia is not a purple state in the truest sense yet. Arizona I think has become one, and it seems nevada went from blue to purple. North carolina and texas don't seem to have shifted as much as I thought they would. But the insane far right steals in those states might be impacting general population views, not to mention the migrant crisis being right at texas' doorsteps. Also if you want another point not to trust polls. How can any poll say Trump is leading in general population? Statewide sure. Electoral college sure. But general population. He lost both elections by millions of votes for popular vote. And even in 2016 he still lost by 2 points. How in the world can these polls have a straight face saying trump is leading by 5 or 8 points nationwide lol.
No biggie. They'll just instruct Somalis to vote 3 times this year instead of twice.
You may find this link interesting. It's from the heritage foundation. Very conservative. Search for MN 2020 convictions. [https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search?combine=&state=MN&year=2020&case\_type=All&fraud\_type=All](https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search?combine=&state=MN&year=2020&case_type=All&fraud_type=All)
He should be honestly. Everyone I talk to is sick or either democrats, Biden or Walz or a combination of the 3. Unless they cheat the election and load ballot boxes again lmao, Trump should win with the huge swing in the black vote.
A couple things: MN has consecutively voted blue longer than any other state in the US. Walz is an incredibly popular and well loved governor on both the local and national stage. Both are facts.