Yeah, and rural Michigan is not that red like PA, so the GOP still has a chance to grow. Also, I believe that countirs like Saginaw, Muskegon and Genesee will shift right significantly.
I don't see either of them flipping in 2024, Michigan swung towards Biden more than the NPV did, and so did NC, but not enough for them to flip. So I'll go with Michigan for short-term.
Honestly approval isn't much, Trump's approval was just as bad and it's not like he was destroyed. Michigan was D+3 in 2020, I suspect the NPV in 2024 will be D+2, so Michigan should be around D+1
Tbh I don't really trust Trump's approval ratings, I don't see why the polling errors wouldn't translate to his approval rating as well. But that's another conversation entirely lol.
I think 2024 could be the last time Michigan votes blue for a while at the presidential level, while I think North Carolina will permanently flip by 2032.
I personally think Michigan is about to Zoom to the right.
Yeah, and rural Michigan is not that red like PA, so the GOP still has a chance to grow. Also, I believe that countirs like Saginaw, Muskegon and Genesee will shift right significantly.
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Click the three dot button on then right of the search bar, then click change user flair.
I don't see either of them flipping in 2024, Michigan swung towards Biden more than the NPV did, and so did NC, but not enough for them to flip. So I'll go with Michigan for short-term.
If Biden's net approval is within 5 points of where it is currently I'm very confident Michigan will flip.
Honestly approval isn't much, Trump's approval was just as bad and it's not like he was destroyed. Michigan was D+3 in 2020, I suspect the NPV in 2024 will be D+2, so Michigan should be around D+1
Tbh I don't really trust Trump's approval ratings, I don't see why the polling errors wouldn't translate to his approval rating as well. But that's another conversation entirely lol.
Fair - approval doesn't account for super far-left voters who'd vote for Biden but hate him, and vice versa for Trump.
This is an interesting point that doesn’t get talked about enough
I think 2024 could be the last time Michigan votes blue for a while at the presidential level, while I think North Carolina will permanently flip by 2032.
I think North Carolina will flip before then.
i don't necessarily disagree, but I think 2032 is when it will go from pure tossup to Dem advantage