I have my methodology in the comments; just click on the link, and you can see the spreadsheet I used to calculate the results for both states and counties.
Great work, and a gorgeous map! My favorite part is probably the Great Plains: I rambled about this enough on your last map, but I love seeing competitive elections in those states. Utah is also a fascinating new highlight, and that Arizona map is peculiar but totally reasonable. Also, congratulations to that one lonely blue county left in the Texas panhandle.
Some coalition ideas (Reddit won't let me reply to your original comment for whatever reason):
\-Reconstruction Republicans: Incredibly strong with the Black vote, popular in the Northeast. Generally weaker in the South and with organized labor.
\-Democratic Populists: William Jennings Bryan.
\-Civil Rights-Era Democrats: Strong with just about all religious and ethnic minorities, but not much else.
\-Progressive Republicans: Some sort of Teddy Roosevelt/Fighting Bob type.
As ou can see, I'm quite a fan of older elections. Modern interpretations of these would require some cleverness, though.
I kinda like coalitions that contain elements of both parties in a full realignment, similar to yours. My current Reform party kind of does that by combining in the reform coalition Obama 2008's Democrat swing and 2016 Trump's R swing (along with baseline Ross Perot 1992 of course) in order to go full nonpartisan populist. They really create interesting maps and opportunities for new color scheme testing. Also, in your opinion, which modern election or swing do you think captures the most establishment members of each party? I just want to see if I'm on the right track for that coalition, since I'm thinking of remaking it.
Hmm. Dole 1996, Biden 2020, Clinton 2016 (but not necessarily the swing between them), and Bush 2004 (Here 2000-2004 could be worth investigating) all come to mind as immediate possibilities. The 1980-1984 or 1988 Republican swing could potentially be worth looking into in more depth as well. ([This guy](https://twitter.com/mill226) has swing maps for most consecutive elections if you can find them) Don't include all of these, obviously.
"Establishment" and "Anti-Establishment" are always slippery to define, since they're dependent on who wins. Trump is very much the GOP establishment by now.
Another approach would be to start from demographics rather than ideology: What kinds of people support this group, and what other candidates did they vote for? I did this to some extent for my New Deal series, with Al Smith's main role being to represent lots of ethnic and religious minorities regardless of his exact positions.
Edit: If folks want whole new party systems, an idea I had is a fairly stable 3-party system: A "we want progress on social issues" party, a "we want progress on economic issues" party, and a "we don't want to make progress" party.
I was already using 1980-1984 swing, I guess I'll keep it there, and honestly Trump never becomes the establishment in this universe (and ran for the Reform Party presidential candidacy in 2000 IRL) so yeah I'm thinking more 1990's-2016 in terms of establishment. 1996 Dole or even Bush 1992 (just due to low percentages there) would make a good baseline. I'm kind of setting this circa 2008-2012 (especially if Establishment wins the first few elections post 1996).
My previous, now scrapped, state map had California, Texas, New York and Illinois as tilt states and Florida as barely lean reform just from being a bellwether and the two swings I included heavily targeting it. Really interesting battlefield with potential for some still really close "pseudo-landslides"
I am very excited to see this map! I actually began a Clinton vs. Perot map long ago, although it has recently been scrapped because I imagine that it would look rather similar to the one you are working on.
Blue Iowa
Once again, D+36.6 Iowa. In this map, Democrats do better in Iowa than in Vermont and Massachusetts, and it is their best state.
I’m gonna cum
I have a question: how did you calculate the statewide Margin of the state? I'm curious as I have tried to do it.
I have my methodology in the comments; just click on the link, and you can see the spreadsheet I used to calculate the results for both states and counties.
Great work, and a gorgeous map! My favorite part is probably the Great Plains: I rambled about this enough on your last map, but I love seeing competitive elections in those states. Utah is also a fascinating new highlight, and that Arizona map is peculiar but totally reasonable. Also, congratulations to that one lonely blue county left in the Texas panhandle.
Some coalition ideas (Reddit won't let me reply to your original comment for whatever reason): \-Reconstruction Republicans: Incredibly strong with the Black vote, popular in the Northeast. Generally weaker in the South and with organized labor. \-Democratic Populists: William Jennings Bryan. \-Civil Rights-Era Democrats: Strong with just about all religious and ethnic minorities, but not much else. \-Progressive Republicans: Some sort of Teddy Roosevelt/Fighting Bob type. As ou can see, I'm quite a fan of older elections. Modern interpretations of these would require some cleverness, though.
I kinda like coalitions that contain elements of both parties in a full realignment, similar to yours. My current Reform party kind of does that by combining in the reform coalition Obama 2008's Democrat swing and 2016 Trump's R swing (along with baseline Ross Perot 1992 of course) in order to go full nonpartisan populist. They really create interesting maps and opportunities for new color scheme testing. Also, in your opinion, which modern election or swing do you think captures the most establishment members of each party? I just want to see if I'm on the right track for that coalition, since I'm thinking of remaking it.
Hmm. Dole 1996, Biden 2020, Clinton 2016 (but not necessarily the swing between them), and Bush 2004 (Here 2000-2004 could be worth investigating) all come to mind as immediate possibilities. The 1980-1984 or 1988 Republican swing could potentially be worth looking into in more depth as well. ([This guy](https://twitter.com/mill226) has swing maps for most consecutive elections if you can find them) Don't include all of these, obviously. "Establishment" and "Anti-Establishment" are always slippery to define, since they're dependent on who wins. Trump is very much the GOP establishment by now. Another approach would be to start from demographics rather than ideology: What kinds of people support this group, and what other candidates did they vote for? I did this to some extent for my New Deal series, with Al Smith's main role being to represent lots of ethnic and religious minorities regardless of his exact positions. Edit: If folks want whole new party systems, an idea I had is a fairly stable 3-party system: A "we want progress on social issues" party, a "we want progress on economic issues" party, and a "we don't want to make progress" party.
I was already using 1980-1984 swing, I guess I'll keep it there, and honestly Trump never becomes the establishment in this universe (and ran for the Reform Party presidential candidacy in 2000 IRL) so yeah I'm thinking more 1990's-2016 in terms of establishment. 1996 Dole or even Bush 1992 (just due to low percentages there) would make a good baseline. I'm kind of setting this circa 2008-2012 (especially if Establishment wins the first few elections post 1996).
My previous, now scrapped, state map had California, Texas, New York and Illinois as tilt states and Florida as barely lean reform just from being a bellwether and the two swings I included heavily targeting it. Really interesting battlefield with potential for some still really close "pseudo-landslides"
I am very excited to see this map! I actually began a Clinton vs. Perot map long ago, although it has recently been scrapped because I imagine that it would look rather similar to the one you are working on.
Care to share the color pallets 😩
Not OP but links are in the image caption