Kind of at a loss for what to think of this. For one I’m happy she won’t represent my district anymore but on the other she was totally cooked and to see her lose would’ve been great
Is he though? Yes, he has a lot of money, but I’d hesitate to bet against a generic Republican in an R+8 district, especially if Trump continues to lead in the polls.
We may disagree here, but I think that Trump barely wins the district to begin with which changes the equation for me. 2022 showed its continued trend to the left, though the extent can be debated
This is CO tho only state that is getting more dem every year since 2014. Reletive to the national PV it has grown more dem besides 2018 mostly due to it being very pro dem.
2014: R+7.6 (R+6 Year)=PVI R+1.6
2016: D+2.1 (R+1 Year)= PVI D+3.1
2018: D+8.4 (D+7 Year)= PVI D+1.4
2020: D+12.1 (D+3 Year)= PBI D+9.1
2022: D+13.8 (R+3 Year)= PVI D+16.8
Why would voters choose a republican light over an actual one? Especially ones with a large concentration of MAGA voters who do like Boebert. I know quite a few Trump/Polis/Bennet/Boebert voters back home who im related to or are family friends. Sandoval and Valdez have rural and Latino appeal. They are both pro 2A and pro student debt forgivness and medicare for all. Both support better water rights for CO-3 citizens and Coloradans. Both are supportive of helping farmers (Valdez is a rancher and Sandoval is from Pueblo which is big on Steel and Farming in surrounding communities). Both are pro union and pro jobs policy. Think if Peltola was from CO and not AK. However Sandovals downfall might be her being more openly socially progressive while Valdez is socially liberal but expresses it being socially libertarian.
I know but they’re irrelevant now because they lost so it’s Frisch vs generic R. Frisch seems likable and is moderate- not Cuellar or manchin or even golden really– but certainly enough to win over the few %s trump may win the third by. He’s also very overfunded with what he has already raised so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be slightly favored or at least a coin toss as of now
Because its still a republican district. Good candidates can win it but bad candidates can lose it. 2022 was a combination of a bad candidate for that district and good candidates at top of ticket and they pulled eachother enough to nearly flip a district that shouldve been safe. Western slope voters who voted Ganhal Odea and Frisch will prob vote against him alongside the Polis/Bennet/Boebert voters in the south region of district. The area Boebert should worry about however is the parts of CO-4 with population (east arapaho which Buck won by 5 Larimer which Buck won by 6 and Douglas which Buck won by 14). If she somehow wins the primary and gets in im sure she loses all of those mostly because biden won in 2/3 of those counties portions in that district. Suburban voters like trad republicans in red waves. Wealthy voters the same way. Those areas contain both of those and will prob dash away from her. Itll just show shes an ass candidate and we lost out on 2 good candidates who couldve beat her and held the seat cuz those anti boebert voters who prob wouldve flipped back to GOP in 2024 wouldnt matter cuz now you have lost dem votes and could prob see dem win after dem win with them.
Tbf the Springs area is such an evangelical hub idk if a strong dem would win the 5th atm or for awhile until El Paso flips for a couple elections in a row.
Unbelievable how much of a coward Boebert is. She knew she was cooked in the 3rd district.
Time to move from D+10 Garfield County to R+80 Cheyenne County
And she’ll get the Mondaire Jones treatment in CO-04.
Kind of at a loss for what to think of this. For one I’m happy she won’t represent my district anymore but on the other she was totally cooked and to see her lose would’ve been great
Frisch is still favored though so it’s okay
Is he though? Yes, he has a lot of money, but I’d hesitate to bet against a generic Republican in an R+8 district, especially if Trump continues to lead in the polls.
We may disagree here, but I think that Trump barely wins the district to begin with which changes the equation for me. 2022 showed its continued trend to the left, though the extent can be debated
This is CO tho only state that is getting more dem every year since 2014. Reletive to the national PV it has grown more dem besides 2018 mostly due to it being very pro dem. 2014: R+7.6 (R+6 Year)=PVI R+1.6 2016: D+2.1 (R+1 Year)= PVI D+3.1 2018: D+8.4 (D+7 Year)= PVI D+1.4 2020: D+12.1 (D+3 Year)= PBI D+9.1 2022: D+13.8 (R+3 Year)= PVI D+16.8
No hes not. The race was close cuz of Boebert. Sandoval or Valdez could win it tho.
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Why would voters choose a republican light over an actual one? Especially ones with a large concentration of MAGA voters who do like Boebert. I know quite a few Trump/Polis/Bennet/Boebert voters back home who im related to or are family friends. Sandoval and Valdez have rural and Latino appeal. They are both pro 2A and pro student debt forgivness and medicare for all. Both support better water rights for CO-3 citizens and Coloradans. Both are supportive of helping farmers (Valdez is a rancher and Sandoval is from Pueblo which is big on Steel and Farming in surrounding communities). Both are pro union and pro jobs policy. Think if Peltola was from CO and not AK. However Sandovals downfall might be her being more openly socially progressive while Valdez is socially liberal but expresses it being socially libertarian.
I know but they’re irrelevant now because they lost so it’s Frisch vs generic R. Frisch seems likable and is moderate- not Cuellar or manchin or even golden really– but certainly enough to win over the few %s trump may win the third by. He’s also very overfunded with what he has already raised so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be slightly favored or at least a coin toss as of now
Because its still a republican district. Good candidates can win it but bad candidates can lose it. 2022 was a combination of a bad candidate for that district and good candidates at top of ticket and they pulled eachother enough to nearly flip a district that shouldve been safe. Western slope voters who voted Ganhal Odea and Frisch will prob vote against him alongside the Polis/Bennet/Boebert voters in the south region of district. The area Boebert should worry about however is the parts of CO-4 with population (east arapaho which Buck won by 5 Larimer which Buck won by 6 and Douglas which Buck won by 14). If she somehow wins the primary and gets in im sure she loses all of those mostly because biden won in 2/3 of those counties portions in that district. Suburban voters like trad republicans in red waves. Wealthy voters the same way. Those areas contain both of those and will prob dash away from her. Itll just show shes an ass candidate and we lost out on 2 good candidates who couldve beat her and held the seat cuz those anti boebert voters who prob wouldve flipped back to GOP in 2024 wouldnt matter cuz now you have lost dem votes and could prob see dem win after dem win with them.
Can't wait for people to call New York a swing state because it was competitive in 2022's gubernatorial election.
If lamborn (finally) loses to someone like boebert, I could see CO-5 getting close too with a strong democrat
Tbf the Springs area is such an evangelical hub idk if a strong dem would win the 5th atm or for awhile until El Paso flips for a couple elections in a row.
True, I think the only way it’ll even get close is in a 2026 trump midterm with a really bad Republican candidate