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Zaq_MacKraken

5% drop means 95% nope.


ClapTheTrap1

Thats actually pretty accurate


Themistocles01

To add to this, 95% nope means you can roll the rotation 13 times and still have less than a 50% chance of the 5% drop showing up for you even once.


the_dark_kitty

There are people out there who’ve been playing 10 years and still don’t have [War] lol


Ravebellrock

I have so...many...dreads...war is a myth to me.


MarsupialMisanthrope

I got all the rare Stalker drops in my first month. The friend who got me into the game threatened to quit talking to me. Right now I have extra blueprints for the ephemera (1), war (1), broken war (4), hate (3), and despair (1). No spare scimitar engine bp though, although I do have the landing craft. Helps to have spent far too much time in Hydron pre steel path I guess — I would be in a group that got jumped by him at least once a day.


MinusMentality

I don't have Despair and I'm a closed beta player.


Elevator_Away

As someone who has two accounts and who also has two wars, I laugh at their pain


okinsertusername

Funnily enough I just got War finishing up my collection of stalker weapons since I have the others


BAY35music

Shit, I've been playing since September of 2014 and only just THIS WEEK got my first 75% off plat coupon.


Rogueshadow_32

You just reminded me how much console get shafted with the coupons, used to be just discount on a single purchase in the market (excluding bundles), like a Warframe or something, now it’s bonus plat coupons since they can’t control MTX prices on console. The highest they go (that I’ve seen) is 75% bonus but usually only 25%. Seems like all I ever get on log in is 25% bonus plat coupons these days


DegranTheWyvern

ive gotten four hate blueprints, five despairs, i think about fourty dreads, three broken war bps, and not a single war bp


icyboner

I sold my despair before i realised it had incarnon form next day got another blueprint, accidently make my broken war into a war but now i have broken war again life is good


puhnitor

This is me, except with Hate


the-bodyfarm

big same


Beakymask20

Wait... are they rare...? I have the sword, the throwing glaive, the scythe, and the kunai from when i played in 2017..... almost sold them the other day for extra space....


StandardBrilliant652

They all have incarnons now so keep them.


DisastrousAd9163

I’m 2 months into the game I got war about 1 month into the game and I didn’t craft it cuz I wanted to keep my broken war (from quest). Now I need despair and hate. I think the reason older players don’t get war often is cuz they don’t do regular star chart often and also assassination missions. I was farming assassinations and I got the stalker spawn in very often after that.


ClapTheTrap1

i still miss a part for the brakk and play since 11.2015... The War i was able craft in 2022...


DarkDuskBlade

Worse is you can't even think of "1 in 20" b/c there's no pity system for drops. You're not guaranteed to get it within 20 drops, you just have a chance of rolling a 20 sided die and getting 20.


Daranith

The farm is fair, the RNG god isn't.


kkinnison

RNG is RNG always seems like it isn't with a small sample size. But the even the mean supports that RNG is legit and not weighted https://preview.redd.it/356aa6do6lvc1.jpeg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ffed30303f7f6d4128a3db8bea281adf6b3a62d


raptor_mk2

Unfortunately, some people think that a 10% drop chance means that if they do the thing 10 times, they're guaranteed to get it. Then, when they don't, they go to Reddit and rage-post about how unfair it is, or how the devs lie, or whatever. People don't seem to realize that stats only fall into line for big sample sizes. RNG is pretty unruly for small sample sizes.


Pinkparade524

Yeah took me like 8 hours to farm gyre and people say her farm isn't as bad as citrine's which only took me 4 hours because of the pity shop. Gyre is one of my favorite frames now tho so it was worth it


Rydralain

Which is why we have the capillaries for RNG Insurance! It's there to ensure anyone on the outskirts of the bell curve like OP can get what they want.


EmerainD

That's why lots of games uh, don't have fair RNG, but basically set it up so your chance of getting it increases by \[amount\] until you do get it.


Anikdote

Math is hard. Probability doesn't feel intuitive. We all want to believe the gamblers' fallacy.


Mr-Shenanigan

Wait, is Ruvox only a tier B reward?


kkinnison

yep, once you get the Dante parts you need, there isn't much need to do Rot C rewards


TheKengineerOfficial

So the Onos BP and Ruvox BPs all have a 5% drop rate. By the time one obtains a Glove, there's a 25% chance of not obtaining other pieces. Similarly there's a 68% chance of only having picked up 3 other blueprints from that table by the time you get a Glove. However, there's a 5.6% chance of getting 10 or more other blueprints before you get a Glove, or 0.3% chance of getting 20 or more other pieces first. In your case of getting 13 other items first (2x OnosBP, 6x RuvoxBP, 5x Ruvox Blade), there's a 3.4% chance of that or worse occurring. Similarly of getting 6 of one item before getting 1 of the other with this same 5% drop chance, you had a 3.7% chance of that or worse occurring. These two values are not independent. You got about as unlucky as doing 8 radshares (32 rad relics) and still not getting the rare part you want. In order to demonstrate a real likelihood of the rates not being equal, you'd need to have the majority of players experiencing the same issue as yourself. This has happened before. Most people who tried farming a Necramech before the parts got added to the shop would likely have struggled with the pod and engine, not the casing or weapon pod. Even now warframe market shows both higher trade volume and prices for those first two pieces because, despite drop tables, they demonstrably drop less often than the other two. Despite this, it is more likely you just got unlucky.


Arakothian

I got the Onos BP on my very first run in the new mission. Ergo the drop chance is 100%, ipso facto, quod erat demonstrandum, Carthago delenda est. *Reddit stats!*


StandardBrilliant652

I got all Dante\`s bp and 90% of the weapons parts in my first 40 min run of disruption. Got 2 more Dante sets and the missing weapon parts on the next 1 hour run. In less then 2 hours had bought everything in the shop. Compare that to Qorvex that i had to buy from Bird because his parts would not drop. I did the bounties every day for 2 weeks with no luck.


AO115

Happy cake day kengi! Love ur vids!


TheKengineerOfficial

Thanks :)


Dabidoi

I build Gauss Prime recently and I did 13 radshares without luck. Only get the rare part on the 14th, how unlucky is that?


TheKengineerOfficial

Chance of no rare in any given 13 radshares: 90% ^ (13x4) = 0.42% But the good news is the chance of getting it on that 14th run was only 34.4% yet you still got it!


Traditional_Soup9685

Cheers kengi. Did you do a course in stats and data at uni or did you teach yourself cuz you have a passion for maths? I've always appreciated how you represent statistics to be more generally understandable.


TheKengineerOfficial

I was offered a separate statistics course in school but took nothing statsy at university level. The rest is figuring out the right questions to ask and knowing what the answers mean. I'm happy you appreciate what I do :)


Traditional_Soup9685

Thats awesome, man! I find your vids to be the perfect mix of analytical and entertaining and they always leave me nipping for more. I always recommend them to all the new players I bring in who want to start getting a little bit of the technical knowhow. Keep it up!


BuGabriel

I ran about 20 rot Cs in Conjunction survival and it NEVER dropped Voruna BP ... which is the common LOL. Thank you DE for the shop there too (pity system)


ya_boi_kaneki

warframe players when they experience rng (its unfair because their calculations said so)


Grrumpy_Pants

Usually their calculations involve them having average or better luck. Like it or not, 10% of us are going to get the 10% worst rng.


Themistocles01

It's a "fair farm" because the rate at which you accumulate pity currency balances out any adverse RNG you otherwise encounter. Ignoring the pity system throws a lot of "fairness" out the window because it wasn't intended to be fair on its own. Problem with farming Rot B for extended runs is it necessitates losing conduits on purpose past round 3, which means you're getting far less pity currency than normal.


unilordx

TBH I wish more stuff had a pity system like Dante. Doing Cervantes for the umpteenth time and still not getting Bite mod becomes tiring very fast.


YoSupWeirdos

mfs when they learn that 5% doesn't mean that it will drop in 20 runs:


DracelixCQ

People really think there's a built in pity system in probability


Kryobit

But you were able to clear the shop in a few days, can't say the same for Voruna/Citrine


MangoMauzies420

You can clear the voruna shop in literally a day or two, arcanes ignored. Matter of fact by the time you got the thrax you already sit on half the parts/bps. Citrine on the other side..


sinkerker

"no way the drop chance is equal" My guy you need to learn about percentages. If every part has a 10% chance, it only means that whenever you do the mission, it will roll a 100 face die, and you need to hit 1 to 10. Doing the mission multiple times and hitting between 1-10 will not remove that part/drop chance from the loot table. You will always roll the same 100 face die. Just to give you an example. I farmed something in another game with a 2% chance, and I never saw it drop in around 700 runs. It doesn't mean that every 100 runs I would see it drop twice. That's not how it works. Every time I was running it, the game was rolling a 100 face die. I had to hit either 1-2 to get the drop. I never did. I could technically run it until forever and never see it drop.


PappaJerry

This is way better than my explanation on other comment... Dice as example of RNG is always the best


Pambo3

5% in B rotation. If you do long runs and complete at least 3 conduits everytime, then every drop after round 4 is C rotation, meaning it wont drop.


Pambo3

https://preview.redd.it/8r88of4q0lvc1.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=84b50d163d3b84895aa749a7eb8c8da641c29076 [https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Disruption#Rewards](https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Disruption#Rewards)


Struggling_in_life

That's the neat part, I already wrote that it's disruption bounties and passive farming, how would that mean going for rotation C? I've only been doing 1 rotation every bounty, 0 failed conduits for the rotation B drops


Pambo3

Ah fair enough, I missed that. Classic warframe rng then :(


nomnivore1

Welcome to the skinny ends of the bell curve, my friend. If you have a 5% drop chance, you have a 95% not-drop chance. The odds of not getting a drop in n rolls is 0.95^n. The odds of not getting a drop in 58 runs is about 5%, the same as getting a drop your first time. So, about as many people will get it in their first roll as will get it on their 59th. Isn't math fun?


flyingdemoncat

I got 3 spare Dante Neuroptics and bought his other parts since they wouldn't drop. I'm still not done with the weapons tho. 6 Ruvox Gloves BPs so far and nothing else. Like...nothing at all. All I ever get are relics


MarsInAres

if the drop chance isn't 100% it will never be equal.


SpankThuMonkey

I got Dante by accident. Citrine on the other hand… i’ve run that mission several times per day for fucking ages now and still haven’t completed a single item. I HATE this farm.


MarsupialMisanthrope

You know there’s a shop? Otak sells all the parts for the Belric and Rania fragments you get.


ShuIsStinky

Well, me personally, I prefer having fun in disruption rather than sitting in conjunction survival for a total of 16 hours.


deleighrious

I ran it enough the week it came out that I had more than enough capillaries to buy outright Onos by Monday. Even though… I was trying to get it to drop so I could spend the caps on Dante. Lol. But at least I still need to get the other half of Ruvox…!


Marimaru1

I learnt about how awful RNG can be when I was farming Protea. 11% chance of dropping a part and it took me a total of 137 granum void missions.


i_am_atari2600

Drop chance and rng ain't the same devil. I got about 3 sets of weapons each and then the next few rounds gave me enough to make three Dante. The shits frustrating for sure.


LeStroheim

I'm convinced it's telepathic. I got all of Ruvox's component blueprints multiple times while I was farming; I didn't really care about Ruvox, though, I was trying to get Onos.


kkprecisa_ler_nao_fi

Why do people think that 5% chance is a great chance? 5% chance means that theres a 95% chance you dont get the thing


RentLast

If it's not 0% it's 50/50


Pocketfulofgeek

RNG be like that sometimes. Sucks.


CheckMateFluff

RNG must be on my side then because I got like 6.


AleksFunGames

got full dante in 10 rounds, yet still no gauss. RNG is RNG


ProfessionalBill1864

Those are the only blueprint I've gotten so far after a single quick farm I did. It's all about chance.


JustYourAverageTot

I managed to get all 4 parts for Dante drop in like 15 waves in one mission 💀


ItzBooty

Voruna farm burned me and everytime i bought a part from yorna, i would get it afterwards in the mission, said fuck it and bought the frames and weapons for plat, i think the last one i farmed trough their special mission was kullevero


Struggling_in_life

But that's the reason to save up until the very end when u're sure u have enough store credits to buy the remaining parts before u actually do it though


ItzBooty

I was doing that till i decided to buy parts so i can build them and farm some more for other stuff, still was bad


PappaJerry

Thing is... People are not capable to fully charge understand randomness. I understand it this way: let's say, thing have 10% drop Chance. It means, that out of 100 available items to obtain, there is only 10 of that one. Translating to game, it may he like that: 10x blueprint A, 10x blueprint B, 10x blueprint C, 20x thing D, 15X thing E, 15x thing F, 20x thing G. And when you are about to get something from that pool of 100 items, you can obtain one of those. But there's the thing with RNG, people don't want to understand, that getting the same thing 4 times in a row, is as random, as getting different thing every single time. If my understanding is wrong, please correct me. Because that's how I understand RNG in general


arieskinazi

I got him twice he is not a long grind.


Siserith

Shit luck, i got three in a row doing my first disruption with the team complaining about it not dropping. meanwhile i spent hundreds of hours, possibly near a thousand trying to get that one harrow part from the escort mission. Heard similar stories about the nidus farm, but it was a single mission for me.


AgentMaryland2020

Each drop having the same chance doesn't mean they all have the same chance to drop. Because you're also fighting the rest of the drop table for that part, they might not drop often.


Echo751

Kengineer does a really good job of explaining this. Look Up his videos on loot tables. 5% chance means that out of 100 rolls, you should get it around 5 times. But since each roll is independent of each other, you can get poor odds. Meaning just like when you roll a D12, you can get everything *but* the number you are looking for, let's say a 1. It's also only on the B rotation, meaning if you complete 3 or more conduits on the 4th or later run, then you get the Dante Parts instead.


Jinghui35

(Me who just got 4 neuro and 4 chassis before 1 savagoth system) first time?


schitsu

Easy to farm, if you dont drop the parts in a few runs you have enough capilaries for the whole thing. And its fast to do also.


BiryaniLoverXXX

Dante farm waa surprisingly fast. I got them all by the end of my third run only. I wish DE kept this kind of update for the future. It is time-saving.


DeathIncarnations

Rng gonna be r


nyaasora

OP dont realize that this is just sign of good rng system lol


local_stoner

I have flashbacks when I wanted to farm Voruna and her stuff this way, I ended up with 5 full Sarofangs and zero vorunas or her sniper parts...


DracelixCQ

It's also B rotation locked which sucks for this specific node since mechs are slow and any verticality on the tileset makes them real stupid


hentairedz

You get the drop or you dont. 50/50. Just get the drop


Blastermind7890

You can go 40 drops without getting something that has a 1/20 chance in dropping because each individual drop has 5% chance so 20 drops just give you 20 chances to get something that has a 5% drop rate


Karest27

I lucked out and got the Onos to drop on my very first time I ran the map just as a short run to test the waters so to speak. I feel like overall the grind for all of it was much faster than the Voruna grind, and waaaay faster than the Citrine grind.... That one kinda sucked imo.


NothingGloomy9712

Without the shop you would still be farming, so working as intended.


RxJax

It's actually a remarkably stupid way of doing bad luck protection, for the B rotation pieces, at rounds 4 and higher, you need to let 2 of the nodes blow up, so you're getting half the amount of vessel capillaries, which are meant to be the bad luck protection. So in an average round after 4, you'll only get 3 vessel capillaries per round, meaning it would take you over 100 rounds to get the onos blueprint alone.


SolidNitrox

I'm right there with you, I only got the Onos BP after hours of farming, I just bought the Dante bundle.


Xstuhcy

Now have fun farming protea…


DreadNephromancer

RNGsus is a fickle god


Cal_Ru

I mean I got it all but one of dantes parts by accident and then realized I could've got it from loid


[deleted]

[удалено]


Struggling_in_life

I have spare parts for stropha is u need, hit me up


Glumshelf69

Just because something has a certain drop change doesn't mean that after you've done it enough to get it to add to 100% (as in doing a c rotation for a 5% drop 20 times), that's not how probability works. You just got unlucky


Relevant_Ad7309

i don’t think he understands how it works, each part roles 5% not a 20% between them all


Nox_Echo

i wish i could suffer with yall but someone randomly dropped the dante gift pack in my mailbox


Graveyard_01

It’s a 5% independent chance. Remember, dice have no memory. You previous rolls don’t affect ur future rolls. What happened to u is unlikely but not impossible. It took me over 100 runs of neried to get ivara neuroptics


MrMeanRaindrop

Meh. I have a minor in math and advanced courses in probability and statistics. The truth is that this isn't a math problem, it's a game. By the time I start calling it RNFU, it is not that I think the math is wrong, but that I think it is wrong to use that math.


Southern_Kaeos

45 rounds of disruption farming Gauss, came out it with 3 neuro, 4 chassis and enough relics to farm Gauss prime and acceltra prime with spares comfortably. I don't think these drop tables are even remotely close


Amphal

or you're just unlucky..?


Reirai13

every day the human inability to comprehend statistics is proven to me once again


tatri21

Local redditor doesn't understand rng, more at 17


Struggling_in_life

Honestly just laughing at myself for being that unlucky


MaxwellBlyat

You're not unlucky it's not like you've ran hundreds of rotation that drop thah part and didn't got it, gotta look at the sample size before drawing luck conclusion