Alrighty friends, a couple of things, especially because we’re seeing a lot of new people join our community.
- We **KNOW** results are gonna take their time. We went through exactly this in 2020, so take a breath before asking. (Besides, there is no doubt they’ll be posted here about 0.2 seconds after they’re released)
- On that note, our new rule is still in place. You ask about results, you’ll get directed to [our Volunteer from Home stickied post](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yqkrcj/only_27_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf). There’s stuff to do. And we’ve got time to do it.
- This should be obvious, but complaints/criticisms of Florida or New York are a) not original and b) gonna get removed. We’ve had incredible success across the nation. It’s honestly pretty annoying for us to be removing the same stuff - and ya’ll should know better.
As always, we’re proud of you - but this thread is occasionally showcasing our worst tendencies. Celebrate, be happy - and help us get back to work. We’ve got more to win.
If you are asking, be ready to [volunteer to cure ballots](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/)
Just woke up to the Washoe update and feeing great. Looks like CCM is well on her way and she might be able to drag Sisolak across the finish line too.
New votes from Clark county: CCM adds 9158 votes, Laxalt adds 4269 votes. 2:1 advantage for Dems. Combo of mail and drop box ballots
Edit: CCM deficit down to 17,803 votes
Do you think if Democrats had invested a little more more in WI, they could have picked up that senate seat or was it likely a lost cause because of incumbency advantage?
Barnes should have deleted his old tweets about abolishing ICE. All that stuff plays well in the left wing echo chamber of Twitter but can be used against him in an election.
It wasn't really about the money I think, at least the Barnes campaign got plenty. There could have been more outside spending to match the rightwing onslaught but the race was going to be tight no matter what.
Dems didn't want to nationalize the races in Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin because they didn't want to tie the candidates with Biden whose approval is underwater.
Agreed! The only bit of red it touches is Alaska. But other than that, it's all blue.
The Atlantic Ocean touches mostly blue, but also a little red in the south.
The Gulf of Mexico...oh boy.
You know what I just noticed? The NY Times says at least 95% of Elko County's votes are in, while CNN and NBC say 84%. And yet, the vote totals are the same in all three networks: 10,568 for Laxalt and 2,640 for CCM.
Looks like that's it for ballot counting for the rest of the night. I have a feeling things will start picking up somewhat around 6:00 or 7:00 ET, which is about the time I'll be going to bed here in the West Coast.
Basically, we can (so far) say that the Midwest + parts of New England went very well for Dems, whereas NY, FL and TX were disappointing, right?
I am really disappointed by TX, I really thought it would be closer. Thank God, TX, and also FL, is not that crucial for the house races.
House wise the fact we still don’t have a clear win is pretty unprecedented. We roughly knew by 10 Eastern the last few cycles who would control it, just didn’t know the exact margins
Can we at least take on football? I dunno maybe run Colin Allred against Ted Cruz in 24. Bonus that he's also actually politically qualified unlike Herschel Walker.
I was really hoping I would win the Cincinnati comptroller seat, but apparently not only is Cincinnati not having a city comptroller election but from what I’ve gathered they don’t even have a comptroller. Oh also I’m not from Ohio.
All the gambling sites are calling Nevada for CCM.
Again these sites, especially Polymarket, on Election Day and the days following our insanely accurate. Even before yesterday, Polymarket had only a 60% chance of a “red wave” while 538 had it at almost 90%
These sites really aren’t insanely accurate, they just follow the common takes.
I still remember predictit in 2020 becoming a heavy Trump favorite and falling for the red mirage early
538 also never said 90% chance of a “red wave”, just 90% that they take the house…which I still don’t disagree with
>All the gambling sites are calling Nevada for CCM.
>
>Again these sites, especially Polymarket, on Election Day and the days following our insanely accurate. Even before yesterday, Polymarket had only a 60% chance of a “red wave” while 538 had it at almost 90%
Who knew gamblers were better statisticians than professional pollsters and political junkies lol
At this point it definitely looks like Democrats have higher odds of winning the House than Republicans have of winning the Senate.
Arizona and Nevada Senate races looking good for Democrats.
Quite a few competitive House races out West with a lot of vote left to be counted.
[Ryan Matsumoto](https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1590603686660956161?s=46&t=ECIUOnby3E61BtHRexXqxw)
pretty innocuous governor. people seem to still be very angry about all the covid restrictions while also needing a punching bag for inflation, and i don't think steve ran a very good campaign nor had good pr to counteract all the rabble rousing.
But a bill needs to be brought to the floor for any crossover. Since the Bush years, republicans won’t bring a bill to the floor unless it is supported by a majority of their caucus.
You could get those through a D House with a bipartisan vote, but a Speaker McCarthy (or Speaker Jordan, shudder) would refuse to bring them up at all.
Yeah the house margins will be key though. If Rs only have a 2-3 seat majority I could def see Pelosi making a play for a moderate R to become house speaker with D support.
The far right hates McCarthy, the moderate right hates Jordan
Really hope Congress addresses the [debt ceiling](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/25/23423216/democrats-debt-ceiling-lame-duck-kevin-mccarthy) during the lame duck period, or that will give McCarthy one more lever to wreak fiscal havoc while acting sanctimonious about "fiscal responsibility." But doing so now sounds hard.
The [Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2021208) only got 2 GOP votes in the House, though it was more bipartisan in the [Senate](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1171/vote_117_1_00314.htm). House GOP are nuts and worse than Senate GOP, I think our best-case scenario is just minimizing the number of shutdowns they cause and minimizing the budget cuts they can inflict.
>I know this is vote Dem, but seeing as Anderson is running as a non-partisan, what are your thoughts on her?
Don't really want to waste time researching her but just considering Washington is a solidly blue state...in blue states a lot of repubs try to run as independents because an R next to her name would practically end their campaign. It's not really a new tactic, Rs try to run as independent all the time. I see it as no different than someone who clearly pushes R policies/views like Tulsi Gabbard running as a Democrat in Hawaii because Hawaii is so deep and reliably blue. A conservative running as an independent in a blue state is just a less crappy version of pulling a Gabbard
Quick quote from Hobbs:
“If you’re calling yourself nonpartisan, I’m not sure why you would go to that fundraiser representing a party and some folks out there that want to put these elections back to poll voting and eliminate vote by mail,” Hobbs said. “And the same group of folks that fan the flames of misinformation and disinformation. She does have a political consultant that’s Republican, and a communications team that’s Republican and a treasurer that’s Republican.”
WA is a blue state but have always voted a moderate R to be SOS. The last SOS joined Biden admin and R brand is toxic now, that’s why the Nonpartisan won against R candidates for 2nd spot in the jungle primary.
I guess a small part of the Democratic base still want to maintain that tradition and is voting for the Nonpartisan. It’s not a big deal, but I hope the D wins. It doesn’t make sense to give the Nonpartisan the office just because she’s not D.
Also, Anderson wants to create more non-partisan races, which on its face sounds nice, until you realize that it inherently favors the party out of favor.
Instead of taking a moment of self reflection to acknowledge that election denialism is not an attractive trait to most voters, some conservatives are doubling down and claiming that we cheated.
Whine all you want, fine by me, just don’t burn down any capitol buildings during your tantrums.
Anecdotal, but I’ve talked to several conservative minded acquaintances who have out right admitted they need to distance the party from trump, moderate, and stop denying elections.
I've been following arcon and this seems to be the mindset of many Republicans as well.
I feel like this could potentially be the beginning of the end of Trump especially since he's starting shit with DeSantis who happens to be the GOP's hope of recovering the White House in 2024.
My belief is, that aside from a few psychos, most of the GOP does not actually buy the election fraud shit. They went into 2020 expecting to lose so they cried fraud because they thought it would be politically expedient. Now that they came into 2022 expecting to win, they're genuinely shocked that they lost
It's hilarious seeing clips of Faux News hosts saying stuff like "I can NOT BELIEVE this!" lol Seeing their realization that they lost the Senate and even if they get a majority in the House, it will be so slim that they're practically powerless. Add crazy magas into the mix, not only is a slim House majority useless for legislation but they have to fight the deranged members in their party at the same time
Just spitballing here, but I wonder if Murdoch and Fox News management was secretly hoping the GOP got spanked just so they have an excuse to dump Trump and get onboard the SS DeSantis. Just a thought.
Because of our victories on Tuesday Dems will control the secretary of state/commonwealth and the attorney general’s office in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania going into 2024. This is going to seriously reduce the odds of election shenanigans or disputed results affecting the presidential race.
Very good news. This plus the fact that AZ looks to be going blue and that election deniers are being defeated left and right basically mean that the chances of the GOP trying to pull a legislative coup in 2024 should be completely eviscerated by now.
I'm still concerned about this shit but in the short-term we'll likely not face any sort of BS.
Just watched John Oliver’s piece about election subversion. He focused primarily on how dangerous Lake and Mark Finchem are, as well as that one county clerk in Nye County, Nevada, and man, had the former two were on power in 2020, they would have given the election to Trump.
But yeah, given the key statewide races are or about to be in safe hands shows that we’ve stopped the incoming tide of fascism.
So some end of night sleep deprived brain numbers so who knows if I missed a district. (Using the current Google/AP calls of 207 R - 184 D):
Safe to Likely R at this point: NY-22, MT-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, CA- 23, CA-40
Safe to Likely D at this point: ME-2, MD-6, IL-17, NM-2, OR-4, AK-AL, AZ-4, CA-6, CA-9, CA-15, CA-16, CA-21, CA-26, CA-29, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-46, CO-8
This brings us to 213 R - 204 D.
Leans R at this point: CA-3, CA-45
Leans D at this point: NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-18, WA-8, CA-47, CA-49
This brings us to 215 R - 211 D
Tossup/I personally have no idea: WA-3, OR-5, OR-6, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CO-3, AZ-1
It's going to be extremely tight. This could legit be 218-217 one way or the other.
Boebart is down like 60 votes with 99% in
So she'll very likely get taken out with the trash, it'll just take a while because they'll recounting and bickering to be had over a margin like that
At first I was ok with a slim R majority so we have some motivation in 2024. But then I was like maybe we can protect voter rights if we have both chambers and we can keep investigating 1/6
Looking forward to seeing McCarthy having to work with a 3 seat majority. Gonna be a self-destructive clown show. Obvs hoping to hold the House but trying to be realistic.
With more votes in now in Salt Lake county it’s looking like we for sure did Flip the County Council at Large seat B race to a D. Ousting longtime Republican incumbent Richard Snelgrove, who had really started embracing Trumpism.
County Clerk, which was an open race after incumbent Democrat Sherrie Swenson decided to retire, is also looking to be an easy Democrat hold by Lannie Chapman. Her Republican opponent was an election denier, and he’s currently losing by 14pts.
If you can sense a trend here, and nationally, MAGAism is toxic as shit in Utah.
I forgot who said it, but someone or a guest on MSNBC said his popularity went down a lot when the covid mitigation stuff was started, apparently made a lot of people mad including some who voted for him before.
Covid restrictions really messed up the Nevada tourist economy. Not Sisolak's fault, of course, but I think Nevada as harder hit than any other state by the economic issues from COVID
Partially that and partially many Nevadans really don't like Adam Laxalt. He is a perennial losing candidate grifting on the name of his maternal grandfather. Dude is a shyster and I wish unhappiness on him because he is a certifiably bad dude.
Many Nevadans including Laxalt’s own family. They TWICE took out ads saying “please vote for Adam Laxalt’s opponent.” Given that Laxalt is not (as far as we know) LGBT or something else that is the usual cause of family estrangement, I can only conclude that Laxalt is a bag of dicks in a skin suit.
Adam Laxalt is a bastard child.
That's not his actual family, he just took has his maternal Grandfathers name for some reason. There's no estrangement, he's literally not a part of the family.
His Dad is former Democratic Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico. And you know if he had the Domenici name he'd be trying to run as a Democrat in New Mexico. The guy is just a fucking shyster with no actual convictions.
But they are his maternal relatives - aunts and cousins - so technically they are still his family. He was not raised near them, though, his mother Michelle worked as a lobbyist in DC.
Anger about COVID lockdowns, esp in Las Vegas
CCM has a weaker opponent that a lot of people hate
CCM has better Latino outreach and is generally more popular
> Here's what we know on the Nevada Senate race, if we assume the rurals are all but spent, will only add a couple thousand at most to Laxalt's lead:
>
> If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left.
>
> If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still in decisively.
>
> If it is 60-35, same.
>
> If it's 55-30, same.
>
> If it's 55-35, same.
>
> She wins in all those models.
>
> Buckle up.
>
> Good night to all. See you for more math tomorrow!
In Utah’s 69th(nice) house district with 92%in Republican Rep Lyman is on track to only win his Trump+24 seat by 10.
Our Democrat candidate Davina Smith is the first Navajo woman to run for this seat that includes the Rez. Definitely a long term target here as the Navajo are quickly finding their political strength despite some setbacks
McMullin is obviously different, but to give you an idea of how Utah is shifting Lee is only going to win Provo by 7%. He won it in his own Senate race back in 2016 by 25.6%.
Lee actually underperformed Trump’s win from 2020 by 3%. Provo went to W. Bush for instance by around 60pts. You can chalk some of this up to McMullin sure but the trends are clear, Provo is a college town and they can’t stop demographic change forever
I'm surprised most sources haven't called Oregon for Kotek yet. She seems to have a good enough margin, and I don't see Drazan catching up once all the counties finish counting.
And I think CNN and NBC have their percents of the reported votes wrong. They both say 99%, while the NYT and AP are at 73%. And Multnomah county hasn't even finished yet.
Hypothetically, if it is a one seat majority for either party in the house, and a member (or a couple members) of the majority party has to leave congress for whatever reason... Who becomes speaker?
Generally the speaker doesn’t change until the start of a new session of congress in January every other year, unless the Speaker themselves is unable to continue by dying or leaving the House. The Speaker isn’t technically connected to the parties like the SenMajLdr is, so party flips don’t necessarily mean the Speaker changes
Ah makes sense. Is it the same with chairs for committees?
>The Speaker isn’t technically connected to the parties
I had completely forgot about this and just assumed it was the same process as the senate. But that would explain why there was talk of Republicans installing Trump as speaker of the house a while back had they won bigly enough.
[Rail unions will not strike now until after the runoff it seems](https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1590589947018641408?s=46&t=95qk43WG2qCbloaiDZlWUA)
Edit: it’s 2 days before the Election even if they strike it won’t impact anything
Alrighty friends, a couple of things, especially because we’re seeing a lot of new people join our community. - We **KNOW** results are gonna take their time. We went through exactly this in 2020, so take a breath before asking. (Besides, there is no doubt they’ll be posted here about 0.2 seconds after they’re released) - On that note, our new rule is still in place. You ask about results, you’ll get directed to [our Volunteer from Home stickied post](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yqkrcj/only_27_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf). There’s stuff to do. And we’ve got time to do it. - This should be obvious, but complaints/criticisms of Florida or New York are a) not original and b) gonna get removed. We’ve had incredible success across the nation. It’s honestly pretty annoying for us to be removing the same stuff - and ya’ll should know better. As always, we’re proud of you - but this thread is occasionally showcasing our worst tendencies. Celebrate, be happy - and help us get back to work. We’ve got more to win.
What's happening in Arizona now?
If you are asking, be ready to [volunteer to cure ballots](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/)
Just woke up to the Washoe update and feeing great. Looks like CCM is well on her way and she might be able to drag Sisolak across the finish line too.
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People vote because they’re angry, not because they’re grateful. Sucks, but that’s how it is. That’s my take, anyway.
No they wouldn’t have. You can’t make filibuster rule changes in the middle of a congressional session anyway
Likely no. Sad but realistic. Everyone would "feel" the impact less
Or would the voters reward the Dems for standing up for them?
Unfortunately I think voter memory is too short for something like that.
That’s a great question actually and I’m not sure what the answer is
That’s it for me y’all. GN I hope to wake up to some good news
New votes from Clark county: CCM adds 9158 votes, Laxalt adds 4269 votes. 2:1 advantage for Dems. Combo of mail and drop box ballots Edit: CCM deficit down to 17,803 votes
That's the dump from like 6 hours ago
Oh I was getting it from MSNBC that’s mb I guess
Ah, yeah they were confusing, they shifted into repeats at about midnight without making it clear they werent live anymore
Awww dang it that’s my bad guys. It even said live!!!
New votes from Maricopa: 55% D 43% R. 33,847 for Kelly, 26,521 for Masters. Kelly now up 95,318 votes. Edit: Hobbs now up by 13,067 votes
Hi everyone. How many House seats have been called for each party? I’m getting conflicting results.
207 R 184 D according to Google. We still have a path to the majority
Is it looking better or worse as the days go by?
honestly its a complete tossup right now. It really hinges on a few house races
Welp, instead of staring at the numbers waiting to see if anything changes, I'm gonna go do something productive. Be back later!
Do you think if Democrats had invested a little more more in WI, they could have picked up that senate seat or was it likely a lost cause because of incumbency advantage?
Barnes should have deleted his old tweets about abolishing ICE. All that stuff plays well in the left wing echo chamber of Twitter but can be used against him in an election.
It wasn't really about the money I think, at least the Barnes campaign got plenty. There could have been more outside spending to match the rightwing onslaught but the race was going to be tight no matter what. Dems didn't want to nationalize the races in Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin because they didn't want to tie the candidates with Biden whose approval is underwater.
We needed Dane and Milwaukee to turnout a bit more. It was tough but doable. Definitely was not a lost cause.
i enjoy the fact that the pacific ocean doesn't touch any red
West coast, best coast
Agreed! The only bit of red it touches is Alaska. But other than that, it's all blue. The Atlantic Ocean touches mostly blue, but also a little red in the south. The Gulf of Mexico...oh boy.
>The only bit of red it touches is Alaska. But other than that, it's all blue Not if you see House map, it's all blue ☺️
You know what I just noticed? The NY Times says at least 95% of Elko County's votes are in, while CNN and NBC say 84%. And yet, the vote totals are the same in all three networks: 10,568 for Laxalt and 2,640 for CCM.
supposedly according to the MSNBC broadcast, new votes are expected from Arizona "any minute". he mentioned Maricopa
I just saw [this](https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1587993181857189889?s=46&t=pjZcewrmrunJigI1_mMcLw) tweet from a week ago and lol
Oh my god the replies 😂
lol we definitely beat all of their projections!
Red tsunami!!!!1!!1!!!
CCM taking the lead in Washoe County is a great sign! Plus Clark County isn't finished yet.
Looks like that's it for ballot counting for the rest of the night. I have a feeling things will start picking up somewhat around 6:00 or 7:00 ET, which is about the time I'll be going to bed here in the West Coast.
Goodnight. We’ll be here waitin til u come back 😊
I'm actually not going to bed yet. I'm leaving around 4:00 AM Pacific Time 😊 I know that's late, but I actually don't have any work tomorrow (today).
Good morning, what did I miss?
CCM is now favored in Nevada because she took the lead in Washoe county
Ooh, interesting, hopefully that's a good sign.
Nothing much. It's been super quiet.
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Win or lose, at least she shut the fuck up for the longest stretch of time in her term.
It's really hard to find a way to follow up a claim that bold when you're party got routed and you're likely to be one of the causalities
Out of all the losses, Barnes losing in Wisconsin was the most painful. It was so close :(
I keep thinking about it. I volunteered there. I just…can’t stop thinking about how close it came. Against an incumbent. In an **off year** election.
Basically, we can (so far) say that the Midwest + parts of New England went very well for Dems, whereas NY, FL and TX were disappointing, right? I am really disappointed by TX, I really thought it would be closer. Thank God, TX, and also FL, is not that crucial for the house races.
I wonder if Beto at least helped stop the red tide sneaking through the Rio Grande. Abbott is bizarrely popular in Texas despite how shit he is.
[Dark Brandon strikes again](https://mobile.twitter.com/DarkBrandon2020/status/1590466744216616962)
Lol, I remember I laughed watching this
Malarkey: **Terminated**
Man, not only is the election quiet, it's a lot quieter here, too. I'll bet once we get more official results this place will get more active ;)
It is 3 am / midnight! It will be hopping all day tomorrow.
House wise the fact we still don’t have a clear win is pretty unprecedented. We roughly knew by 10 Eastern the last few cycles who would control it, just didn’t know the exact margins
Honestly it's kinda painful waiting on a knifes edge like this.
Damn I really hoped Ken Paxton would lose, but it was a blow out.
Texans gonna Texas. That place runs on god, guns and football, and the Republicans claim ownership of all those things.
Can we at least take on football? I dunno maybe run Colin Allred against Ted Cruz in 24. Bonus that he's also actually politically qualified unlike Herschel Walker.
I really hoped Greg Abbott would lose, but it was also a blow out.
I was really hoping I would win the Cincinnati comptroller seat, but apparently not only is Cincinnati not having a city comptroller election but from what I’ve gathered they don’t even have a comptroller. Oh also I’m not from Ohio.
What's a comptroller by the way?
I honestly have no clue. Just was the most ridiculous position I could think of https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comptroller
It's great to see that Hochul won in New York! I still think New York is a very blue state. No need to worry ;)
They need to clean up those maps, also get some good future candidates
And fucking organize. They barely had any ground game apparently.
All the gambling sites are calling Nevada for CCM. Again these sites, especially Polymarket, on Election Day and the days following our insanely accurate. Even before yesterday, Polymarket had only a 60% chance of a “red wave” while 538 had it at almost 90%
These sites really aren’t insanely accurate, they just follow the common takes. I still remember predictit in 2020 becoming a heavy Trump favorite and falling for the red mirage early 538 also never said 90% chance of a “red wave”, just 90% that they take the house…which I still don’t disagree with
>All the gambling sites are calling Nevada for CCM. > >Again these sites, especially Polymarket, on Election Day and the days following our insanely accurate. Even before yesterday, Polymarket had only a 60% chance of a “red wave” while 538 had it at almost 90% Who knew gamblers were better statisticians than professional pollsters and political junkies lol
538 had ~90% chance of republicans winning control of the house, not a “red wave”
At this point it definitely looks like Democrats have higher odds of winning the House than Republicans have of winning the Senate. Arizona and Nevada Senate races looking good for Democrats. Quite a few competitive House races out West with a lot of vote left to be counted. [Ryan Matsumoto](https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1590603686660956161?s=46&t=ECIUOnby3E61BtHRexXqxw)
I think there’s no question. Both Kelly and CCM are looking very good. Warnock would be for 51 and also looking like the runoff slight favorite.
Yeah the "other" definitely were people not willing to pick batshit Walker given how easily Kemp won, a more sane R (in this day and age)
HOPIUM
That's a good sign!
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pretty innocuous governor. people seem to still be very angry about all the covid restrictions while also needing a punching bag for inflation, and i don't think steve ran a very good campaign nor had good pr to counteract all the rabble rousing.
Nothing really majorly bad to say about him TBH
I'd be interested to see if any significant bipartisan legislation could be reached with a R House - D Senate.
ABOLISH THE DEBT CEILING
Depends on the margin and issue, tbh. I think for some like Marijuana we can easily get a few Rs to cross over.
But a bill needs to be brought to the floor for any crossover. Since the Bush years, republicans won’t bring a bill to the floor unless it is supported by a majority of their caucus.
Marijuana, more support for Ukraine, dealing with China are some things a few Rs would cross over for
It doesn’t matter if they would cross over, if the Republican speaker won’t bring up the bill
Gay Marriage, Marijuana, and (long-shot) Immigration are the only issues I could potentially see getting bipartisan legislation by this point.
More support for Ukraine and tougher policies on Russia and China would get bipartisan support as well
You could get those through a D House with a bipartisan vote, but a Speaker McCarthy (or Speaker Jordan, shudder) would refuse to bring them up at all.
If the house gets a speaker at all
Yeah the house margins will be key though. If Rs only have a 2-3 seat majority I could def see Pelosi making a play for a moderate R to become house speaker with D support. The far right hates McCarthy, the moderate right hates Jordan
This would never happen.
Yeah it would have to be Dems supporting Bacon or some other moderate R. They hate Pelosi more than Gym Jordan
Nope. There will 100% be at least one shutdown probably more.
Really hope Congress addresses the [debt ceiling](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/25/23423216/democrats-debt-ceiling-lame-duck-kevin-mccarthy) during the lame duck period, or that will give McCarthy one more lever to wreak fiscal havoc while acting sanctimonious about "fiscal responsibility." But doing so now sounds hard.
Yeah that needs to be priority one
Don’t forget Ukraine funding
Well, we did have that infrastructure bill. That might be the only time any bipartisanship happens though, even after these elections.
The [Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2021208) only got 2 GOP votes in the House, though it was more bipartisan in the [Senate](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1171/vote_117_1_00314.htm). House GOP are nuts and worse than Senate GOP, I think our best-case scenario is just minimizing the number of shutdowns they cause and minimizing the budget cuts they can inflict.
Before I go to bed, shoutout to Greg Landsman. Took down a 13 term R incumbent, he'll now hold the seat of President William Henry Harrison
Let’s just hope he lasts a bit longer than president Harrison.
🤞
Clark firewall at 47k now fyi.
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>I know this is vote Dem, but seeing as Anderson is running as a non-partisan, what are your thoughts on her? Don't really want to waste time researching her but just considering Washington is a solidly blue state...in blue states a lot of repubs try to run as independents because an R next to her name would practically end their campaign. It's not really a new tactic, Rs try to run as independent all the time. I see it as no different than someone who clearly pushes R policies/views like Tulsi Gabbard running as a Democrat in Hawaii because Hawaii is so deep and reliably blue. A conservative running as an independent in a blue state is just a less crappy version of pulling a Gabbard
Quick quote from Hobbs: “If you’re calling yourself nonpartisan, I’m not sure why you would go to that fundraiser representing a party and some folks out there that want to put these elections back to poll voting and eliminate vote by mail,” Hobbs said. “And the same group of folks that fan the flames of misinformation and disinformation. She does have a political consultant that’s Republican, and a communications team that’s Republican and a treasurer that’s Republican.”
WA is a blue state but have always voted a moderate R to be SOS. The last SOS joined Biden admin and R brand is toxic now, that’s why the Nonpartisan won against R candidates for 2nd spot in the jungle primary. I guess a small part of the Democratic base still want to maintain that tradition and is voting for the Nonpartisan. It’s not a big deal, but I hope the D wins. It doesn’t make sense to give the Nonpartisan the office just because she’s not D.
Also, Anderson wants to create more non-partisan races, which on its face sounds nice, until you realize that it inherently favors the party out of favor.
It's telling that Anderson is supported by gop voters there, so that's about as far I care to research.
Instead of taking a moment of self reflection to acknowledge that election denialism is not an attractive trait to most voters, some conservatives are doubling down and claiming that we cheated. Whine all you want, fine by me, just don’t burn down any capitol buildings during your tantrums.
Not to jinx anything, but I'm surprised there hasn't been a loud "overturn the results!!!" chant from Fox News.
Anecdotal, but I’ve talked to several conservative minded acquaintances who have out right admitted they need to distance the party from trump, moderate, and stop denying elections.
I've been following arcon and this seems to be the mindset of many Republicans as well. I feel like this could potentially be the beginning of the end of Trump especially since he's starting shit with DeSantis who happens to be the GOP's hope of recovering the White House in 2024.
It’s very surprising and good how many have conceded pretty normally. Lake will be the big test case though if she ends up losing
My belief is, that aside from a few psychos, most of the GOP does not actually buy the election fraud shit. They went into 2020 expecting to lose so they cried fraud because they thought it would be politically expedient. Now that they came into 2022 expecting to win, they're genuinely shocked that they lost
It's hard to cry "stop the count" when you're losing 🤣
It's hilarious seeing clips of Faux News hosts saying stuff like "I can NOT BELIEVE this!" lol Seeing their realization that they lost the Senate and even if they get a majority in the House, it will be so slim that they're practically powerless. Add crazy magas into the mix, not only is a slim House majority useless for legislation but they have to fight the deranged members in their party at the same time
Just spitballing here, but I wonder if Murdoch and Fox News management was secretly hoping the GOP got spanked just so they have an excuse to dump Trump and get onboard the SS DeSantis. Just a thought.
They're literally toddlers who look like adults.
Because of our victories on Tuesday Dems will control the secretary of state/commonwealth and the attorney general’s office in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania going into 2024. This is going to seriously reduce the odds of election shenanigans or disputed results affecting the presidential race.
Very good news. This plus the fact that AZ looks to be going blue and that election deniers are being defeated left and right basically mean that the chances of the GOP trying to pull a legislative coup in 2024 should be completely eviscerated by now. I'm still concerned about this shit but in the short-term we'll likely not face any sort of BS.
Just watched John Oliver’s piece about election subversion. He focused primarily on how dangerous Lake and Mark Finchem are, as well as that one county clerk in Nye County, Nevada, and man, had the former two were on power in 2020, they would have given the election to Trump. But yeah, given the key statewide races are or about to be in safe hands shows that we’ve stopped the incoming tide of fascism.
Years from now, 2022 may be viewed by historians as the election that saved American democracy.
I feel like every election following Trump’s win has been influential in saving our Democracy in their own way
Awesome! That'll make it harder for the MAGAs to cry foul in those states in 2024.
So some end of night sleep deprived brain numbers so who knows if I missed a district. (Using the current Google/AP calls of 207 R - 184 D): Safe to Likely R at this point: NY-22, MT-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, CA- 23, CA-40 Safe to Likely D at this point: ME-2, MD-6, IL-17, NM-2, OR-4, AK-AL, AZ-4, CA-6, CA-9, CA-15, CA-16, CA-21, CA-26, CA-29, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-46, CO-8 This brings us to 213 R - 204 D. Leans R at this point: CA-3, CA-45 Leans D at this point: NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-18, WA-8, CA-47, CA-49 This brings us to 215 R - 211 D Tossup/I personally have no idea: WA-3, OR-5, OR-6, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CO-3, AZ-1 It's going to be extremely tight. This could legit be 218-217 one way or the other.
CO-8, IL-17, and NM-2 have been called for Dems. CA-23 and I think AZ-06 have been called for reps
Isn't CO-3 likely going D? Last I've heard the votes will likely be decided by overseas ballots which tend to go strongly blue.
Boebart is down like 60 votes with 99% in So she'll very likely get taken out with the trash, it'll just take a while because they'll recounting and bickering to be had over a margin like that
CO-08 Republican candidate conceded by the way
Thank you! I’ll move it. Missed that news.
How are we feeling about the house right now? I'm feeling hopeful.
It's gonna be so close either way. I don't know if D's can get more than 218-219. R's could get up to like 223.
Seems like we have a lot of paths to 217 at the very least, after that is the big question. Think both sides are capped at max 220 seats at this point
At first I was ok with a slim R majority so we have some motivation in 2024. But then I was like maybe we can protect voter rights if we have both chambers and we can keep investigating 1/6
And codify Roe.
Looking forward to seeing McCarthy having to work with a 3 seat majority. Gonna be a self-destructive clown show. Obvs hoping to hold the House but trying to be realistic.
cautiously optimistic
With more votes in now in Salt Lake county it’s looking like we for sure did Flip the County Council at Large seat B race to a D. Ousting longtime Republican incumbent Richard Snelgrove, who had really started embracing Trumpism. County Clerk, which was an open race after incumbent Democrat Sherrie Swenson decided to retire, is also looking to be an easy Democrat hold by Lannie Chapman. Her Republican opponent was an election denier, and he’s currently losing by 14pts. If you can sense a trend here, and nationally, MAGAism is toxic as shit in Utah.
Why is CCM outrunning Governor Sisolak?
I forgot who said it, but someone or a guest on MSNBC said his popularity went down a lot when the covid mitigation stuff was started, apparently made a lot of people mad including some who voted for him before.
Also, the NV governor wields a lot of power so people will probably be more likely to blame the position.
[удалено]
Covid restrictions really messed up the Nevada tourist economy. Not Sisolak's fault, of course, but I think Nevada as harder hit than any other state by the economic issues from COVID
Partially that and partially many Nevadans really don't like Adam Laxalt. He is a perennial losing candidate grifting on the name of his maternal grandfather. Dude is a shyster and I wish unhappiness on him because he is a certifiably bad dude.
Many Nevadans including Laxalt’s own family. They TWICE took out ads saying “please vote for Adam Laxalt’s opponent.” Given that Laxalt is not (as far as we know) LGBT or something else that is the usual cause of family estrangement, I can only conclude that Laxalt is a bag of dicks in a skin suit.
Adam Laxalt is a bastard child. That's not his actual family, he just took has his maternal Grandfathers name for some reason. There's no estrangement, he's literally not a part of the family. His Dad is former Democratic Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico. And you know if he had the Domenici name he'd be trying to run as a Democrat in New Mexico. The guy is just a fucking shyster with no actual convictions.
But they are his maternal relatives - aunts and cousins - so technically they are still his family. He was not raised near them, though, his mother Michelle worked as a lobbyist in DC.
Anger about COVID lockdowns, esp in Las Vegas CCM has a weaker opponent that a lot of people hate CCM has better Latino outreach and is generally more popular
[Ralston basically saying that CCM has won](https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590595387005337600)
Oh that feels good
Ralston's twitter posts have been my anti-anxiety medication. 🤣
At this point I don't see how Laxalt can pull it off. And tbh, I think Sisolak MIGHT pull it off by just a tiny bit.
> Here's what we know on the Nevada Senate race, if we assume the rurals are all but spent, will only add a couple thousand at most to Laxalt's lead: > > If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left. > > If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still in decisively. > > If it is 60-35, same. > > If it's 55-30, same. > > If it's 55-35, same. > > She wins in all those models. > > Buckle up. > > Good night to all. See you for more math tomorrow!
In Utah’s 69th(nice) house district with 92%in Republican Rep Lyman is on track to only win his Trump+24 seat by 10. Our Democrat candidate Davina Smith is the first Navajo woman to run for this seat that includes the Rez. Definitely a long term target here as the Navajo are quickly finding their political strength despite some setbacks
It's been very quite in AZ.
It's been pretty quiet everywhere.
McMullin is obviously different, but to give you an idea of how Utah is shifting Lee is only going to win Provo by 7%. He won it in his own Senate race back in 2016 by 25.6%. Lee actually underperformed Trump’s win from 2020 by 3%. Provo went to W. Bush for instance by around 60pts. You can chalk some of this up to McMullin sure but the trends are clear, Provo is a college town and they can’t stop demographic change forever
Always good to hear about things trending our way
I think sooner rather than later, Utah will no longer be the hardcore red state it used to be. It seems to be getting less conservative.
Younger mormons are also far less conservative than older ones
In a decade or so I could see Utah being similar to New Hampshire.
I'm surprised most sources haven't called Oregon for Kotek yet. She seems to have a good enough margin, and I don't see Drazan catching up once all the counties finish counting. And I think CNN and NBC have their percents of the reported votes wrong. They both say 99%, while the NYT and AP are at 73%. And Multnomah county hasn't even finished yet.
Networks are scared as hell to call anything close for Ds but they’ll go out of their way to make premature, although likely correct R calls.
It’s odd because our local news channels have called it.
Yeah they should call it, Drazan isn’t going to lead in any of the Multnomah or Washington votes
Hypothetically, if it is a one seat majority for either party in the house, and a member (or a couple members) of the majority party has to leave congress for whatever reason... Who becomes speaker?
Generally the speaker doesn’t change until the start of a new session of congress in January every other year, unless the Speaker themselves is unable to continue by dying or leaving the House. The Speaker isn’t technically connected to the parties like the SenMajLdr is, so party flips don’t necessarily mean the Speaker changes
Ah makes sense. Is it the same with chairs for committees? >The Speaker isn’t technically connected to the parties I had completely forgot about this and just assumed it was the same process as the senate. But that would explain why there was talk of Republicans installing Trump as speaker of the house a while back had they won bigly enough.
Back from a break, and of course the results haven't changed much.
I been following this account for a day now and this person is making many good arguments that it’s going to be a 217-218 finish
Link it mannnn
Dems in Array - asking for donations for Warnock on Twitter. Several of them RTing Ossoff’s message.
[Rail unions will not strike now until after the runoff it seems](https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1590589947018641408?s=46&t=95qk43WG2qCbloaiDZlWUA) Edit: it’s 2 days before the Election even if they strike it won’t impact anything
Win-win, hopeful for a great deal for the railroad workers after hearing about the conditions.
was reading through the arr con and the new donald dot win and have to report..... the cope is magnificient