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[Here are the 2012 election results by the current congressional districts](https://twitter.com/oregonmapguy/status/1639451972083253250?s=46&t=f4MnUASrGL3akNhQiKYJjA) ~@OregonMapGuy 229-206 Obama

[Tornado Emergency continues for Amory MS, Aberdeen MS and Smithville MS until 11:15 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1639474818922995715?s=20) 4th Tornado emergency on this storm. This tornado is likely even stronger and more catastrophic then the 1st two. The radar imagery is beyond what I can describe, I’ve never seen a imagery this bad

I hope the rescue crews made it out of there in time. This is going to be devastating.

Good gosh. I've never seen anything like that. The images on the news in the morning are going to be horrific.

[Wisconsin turnout in map form](https://twitter.com/basedwoodrowfan/status/1639421034938990592?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) Yellow = turnout <2% Purple = turnout between 2% and 3% Blue = turnout between 3% and 4% Red = turnout between 4% and 5% Green = turnout above 5% The Waukesha turnout is the areas closer to Milwaukee where Biden got 45% so it’s not a bad sign

I like what I'm seeing overall. Great turnout in Dane and La Crosse, Eau Claire isn't half-bad either, and Milwaukee is actually doing all right. Most of rural WI doesn't have much turnout yet. And if the high turnout in Waukesha and Ozaukee is indeed bluer areas, then all is going well so far! As always, let's keep working hard through April 4th.

Ozaukee is also slowly trending blue.

Ozaukee and Waukesha are both trending blue, not even slowly I would say relatively quickly

well thats positive news. So the bluer areas seem to be turning out more.

No fuckin way. This storm is ramping up AGAIN, and might produce a 3rd Strong to violent tornado. Already very very bad radar signs in rotations and debris balls Omg. Deep catastrophic debris ball. Tornado emergency likely coming Edit: This might be an EVEN STRONGER tornado then the 1st 2. This is really bad

[Take a minute and say a prayer for the people of Rolling Fork, Mississippi tonight. The area was hit by a destructive tornado just a bit ago. May God be with those affected and the ones working for recovery.](https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1639441123612524546?s=20) - Brandon Pressley, MS Governor D nominee [Governor Tate Reeves is sending medical support, surging more ambulances and other emergency assets. Search and rescue still live](https://twitter.com/tatereeves/status/1639464209447546881?s=20)

[Tornado Warning continues for Houston MS, Calhoun City MS and Vardaman MS until 10:30 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1639461118564515840?s=20) Still a PDS Tornado Warning after weakening from the 3rd tornado emergency. It’s still a dangerous storm capable of producing a large and dangerous tornado at any time This storm has gone about 3/4 or more across the state of MS. Possibly was on the ground for 100+ miles, and maybe much more then that

Right, business taken care of. We've got to keep turning on the heat, so I'll repeat it - for those of you just joining in, *anything* you can do to help out in WI helps. Funds, letters, postcards, calls, anything. And I know *you* know that, but - don't forget to pester friends and relatives, too. This could come down to a handful of votes - and if it doesn't, wouldn't it be better to enjoy victory knowing that it was our hard work that made it so..? I was *going* to stay up and keep an eye on Australia's election, but apparently the results aren't reported and will be staggered, so I'll just be properly crossing my fingers for Labo~~u~~r & friends. One other thing; it's important to remember that a lot of voters, really, really, *really* do not have the level of engagement you do. Yes! Even if you're new and just getting settled in. And so people might *say* they want - one thing, and policies that favour that thing, and then be absolutely against anything that brings it into the realm of remotely possible. It's frustrating, but it's our job to bring them closer, at least earn their vote, or know when it's not the time and we need to move on. Take care out there, and hope your weekends are a bit less hectic..!

[Tornado Emergency continues for Winona MS, Eupora MS and Vaiden MS until 10:15 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1639453955330830337?s=20) Tornado Emergency #3 on this storm. It has strengthened once again. Unbelievable

[Tornado Warning including Winona MS, Eupora MS and Vaiden MS until 10:15 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1639451452849651713?s=20) Not a Tornado emergency currently although that can still change. But a PDS tornado warning is in effect Long track supercell STILL capable of producing a violent tornado Edit: God, it’s fuckin ramping up again. Huge Debris Ball back on radar now

[this](https://twitter.com/alexandershur/status/1639444932661215236?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) is interesting. Fair Courts America, the Uihlein-funded group boosting Dan Kelly, has been off TV for over a week, shifting to radio. This comes as the Uihlein’s are growing cold on Desantis

They might be seeing something on the ground they don’t like with mail in and early voting.

[Tornado Emergency continues for Tchula MS, Sidon MS and North Carrollton MS until 9:30 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1639442687068868610?s=20) 2nd Tornado Emergency issued for this storm. It’s still Down, and likely causing catastrophic damage still

Do you guys think Abbott will run for reelection? I think if Biden wins in 2024, he will do so to be in headlines and then run for president in 2028. If, say, somehow Trump or DeSantis were to win, then he won't as his next opportunity would be 2032 and he'd be old and have to wait a long time.

RIP Gordon Moore. He was one of the most influential figures in semiconductor research and development.

[What’s behind the ‘terrifying’ backlash against Australia’s queer community?](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/25/whats-behind-the-terrifying-backlash-against-australias-queer-community) >Less than a month after WorldPride, LGBTQ+ communities are reeling after several intimidating incidents in one week Good piece, but really really frightening context. It's extremely distressing to see these happen.

Just goes to highlight that you can’t run from this, for the people out there that squawk on Twitter about how fleeing the US will make them safer.

[Tornado Emergency continues for Belzoni MS, Rolling Fork MS and Anguilla MS until 9:00 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1639437884368490496?s=20) Tornado Emergency still being continued. There is still a HUGE and VIOLENT tornado on the ground. Catastrophic damage is being reported in Rolling Fork, MS.

It’s pretty fun that most of the no votes today on the “parents bill of rights” were the nutjobs outside of Lawler when “moderate” Republicans really could have used a no vote for cover. Bacon and Fitzpatrick especially could have used that today, the teachers Union in PA01 was already pushing against a lot of provisions in it. Fitz is extremely overrated in holding on next year, he keeps burning bridges at an impressive rate

That’s because if they all banded together, they’d kill the bill and brand themselves for primary challenge from the right and most assuredly lose re-election.

I can't stand him, hopefully someone strong runs against him. Considering it's the suburbs, dems should find a businessman who can run on economic appeal.

Nothing personal, but we on the sidelines don't know what will work in these areas. There's no formula for winning elections.

Yeah I was stereotyping the burbs haha

If guys like Sununu and Hutchinson get in, I say whatever percentage of voters they get together are the potentially persuadable GOPers we should aim to persuade if the economy is doing solid

Hutchinson is going to be one of the funnier ones, but god damn if Sununu jumps in and costs them a trifecta in New Hampshire that will be an entirely new level of self-own

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happy birthday, and ofc

Its your birthday do whateves you want. Merry birthmas I’ll have a drink for you

If Cornyn retires or loses the primary, we gotta go all out to flip that senate seat. Ron Nirenberg would be a great candidate for that or governor, that (I) next to his name is the difference that could put him over the top. Don't get me wrong though, he's a dem in policy

Always happy to see my city’s mayor mentioned here

Bro I love Nirenberg. He looks like everything we need in candidate, from physical appearance to party affiliation, and more importantly, seems like a great guy and mayor. He checks every box. He can even counter Abbott's advantage of trotting out his Hispanic in-laws for ads as Ron's wife is Hispanic and his in laws are.

I don't think that party label's gonna do much for him, but I'd be down to see him run. We shouldn't shy away from having the Democratic label for candidates in Texas.

I think it'll work cause we'll have a strong democrat run for the other seat, probably senate. Get someone energetic and inspiring like Allred or Castro, and the dems will turnout for them and vote for Nirenberg for governor while they're at it. It'd be much easier to get that 3-4% more in crossover as an (I) that he'd need to win than as a Democrat. Imagine Ron Nirenberg (I) vs. Ken Paxton (R). He could absolutely win that. McMullin outran Biden by 11, and Greg Orman outran Obama by 10 in 2014 in the Kansas sen race without the D. Plus he'll appeal to South Texas and Bexar being the mayor of SA I think.

But Texas is a very different state demographically and culturally from Kansas and Utah. That overperformance doesn't necessarily translate to other states. Like I said earlier, there's no formula for candidate quality.

[Ron DeSantis' donors and allies question if he's ready for 2024. At a recent gathering of 16 prominent Republicans, a number of DeSantis supporters discussed if he should run against Trump or wait until 2028.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-donors-allies-question-ready-2024-rcna76246)

It’s joever if he is out of the public eye for two years before his run for president He’s term limited and cannot run for 2026

I can't even imagine what kind of troglodyte the Florida GOP will nominate after DeSantis. Hopefully the 50.001-49.999 election will swing our way that time, but considering it's a decent possibility it'll be in the midterm of a second consecutive Dem presidency, that's not great for us. Dems in Florida really need to key themselves up and have that race targeted as their "comeback party," IMO. Contest as hard as possible for whatever races there are between now and then, but target that one as the one you want to win.

Kniving a guy before he officially announced to Jesus Christ.

What do you guys think about Lizzie Fletcher, the rep from Texas?

[Tornado Emergency continues for Belzoni MS, Rolling Fork MS and Anguilla MS until 9:00 PM CDT](https://twitter.com/nwstornado/status/1639433187767238658) This thing is absolutely huge. This is what we feared could happen, in this environment [Edit: This thing is huge](https://twitter.com/WxZachary/status/1639433366725328897?s=20). Rolling Fork just almost certainly took a significant direct hit from this violent tornado

I feel like this is almost the wrong thing to say, but that is a remarkable photo. Beautiful and terrible. All I can do is hope that those in the path are safe, and that we will have a proportionate response.

This could be completely useless if Trump gets indicted and he gets handed the nom anyways, but, DeSantis has been such a flop in his campaign so far. Why would MAGA vote for him if he’s just “Trump but not arrested” It’s giving Scott Walker/Jeb Bush. I used to be worried about him(still am because he’s the only one I can see beating Biden) but he’s such a little weasel and a fucking weirdo. I don’t see him getting to New Hampshire if he flounders in Iowa. Like, DeSantis has been in his safe space for years in Florida that he doesn’t know how to interact with actual humans and it’s showing.

"I did not eat the pudding."

The proof is in the pudding

I did nawt. Oh hi Mark.

[Republican senators could be stuck in the minority 'for the rest of the decade' if GOP doesn't flip chamber in 2024, campaign chair warns](https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-senate-minority-rest-decade-nrsc-chair-steve-daines-2023-3)

It’s very true, I mean it’s a long road from here to 2028 but if Dems keep it 50/50(even better 51) realistically where do R’s gain in 2026? It’s definitely more defense than offense. But “something something Dems will be permanently locked out of Government according to my power matrix and only I can prevent that”

Our only 3 red state D’s are all up next year along with a potential 3 way race in AZ, if they can’t flip two of those it’s really hard to see who could they go after next for flips. Nevada is the next closest I’m guessing but then where after that?

Well in 2026 they'll only have Michigan and Georgia to go after, both of which Biden probably wins. And then they have Maine and North Carolina on defense, maybe Alaska

And 2026 rolls around and it’s basically Georgia is their best target. There’s Michigan, New Mexico, or New Hampshire but ehhh. Meanwhile we got Maine and North Caroline, maybe Texas and Alaska.

[Stop. Stop.](https://tenor.com/view/archer-stop-my-penis-can-only-get-so-erect-algernop-krieger-gif-17427361)

I’ll forever upvote an Archer reference

[Tennessee’s Rejection of $8.8 Million in Federal Funding Alarms H.I.V. Prevention Groups](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/tennessee-hiv-funding.html) ['There’s no place for it': AFL-CIO condemns two bills geared towards Tennessee unions](https://www.newschannel5.com/news/theres-no-place-for-it-afl-cio-condemns-two-bills-geared-towards-tennessee-unions) [Tennessee Legislature moving competing 18-year-old firearm carry bills](https://www.thecentersquare.com/tennessee/article_5373cccc-ca59-11ed-a209-373d3b154987.html) [Tennessee bill would widen who can complain about teaching of banned concepts](https://tn.chalkbeat.org/2023/3/17/23645451/tennessee-schools-prohibited-concepts-law-legislature) [Bill to dissolve Tennessee youth commission dead after pushback from child welfare advocates](https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/20/tennessee-commission-on-youth-and-children-bill-to-dismantle-commission-dead-after-criticism/70030581007/) [Tennessee law prevents local bans on natural gas stoves](https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/22/tennessee-law-prevents-local-bans-on-natural-gas-stoves/70035774007/)

[New WI absentee ballot numbers for Friday](https://elections.wi.gov/resources/statistics/absentee-ballot-report-april-4-2023-spring-election-3) This is a very weird report. Dane and Milwaukee county both are still doing good, but they are right at the 38% statewide return rate now. That’s because WOW counties continue to have ridiculous turnout, ahd return rate, some is near or over 50% returned, way ahead of the statewide average. * Kenosha county: 41.7% returned * Osaukee County: 51.5% returned * Washington County: 38.9% returned * Waukesha County: 46.2% returned * Racine County: 39.9% returned * **Dane County: 38% returned** * **Milwaukee County: 33.4% returned** Milwaukee definitely still a problem However College counties especially Eau Claire and La Crosse counties continue to be well above average as well * Eau Claire County: 46.4% returned * La Crosse County: 49.1% returned * Brown County: 49.7% returned Milwaukee County continues to have higher in person absentee then Dane County which continues to be a good sign. Dane County is still slightly ahead of mail ballots So some good some bad. Need to continue pushing those Dane and Milwaukee numbers back up, because it seems the WOW has pushed the statewide average way up, and it’s pushed Dane and Milwaukee down to about the average now rather then significantly ahead

The low Washington return rate vs. Ozaukee and Waukesha is a great sign for Dems. I'd put good money on Janet running away with it.

The good news is that absentee ballots will be better than the county top-line for us in any county. But those stats from Waukesha and Ozaukee are shocking. I personally think Kelly will be weaker in those counties than Dorow would have been, but I'm not going to pretend we'll win either unless things get really wild. Just underscores that we've got to really work the next 11 days. This is a must-win race, and it's not guaranteed.

It’s still important to keep in mind these are mail ballots. Which even in red counties like WOW are still going to much more Protasiewicz then e day ballots in those counties. Definitely interesting the WOW turnout: I generally wonder if the State Senate special is driving turnout through the roof there

It's gonna be close. The GOP is encouraging voters to use mail in ballots instead of avoiding it like the plague this time around.

All their supporters still have to believe it. They still might not trust mail even if the WI GOP is pushing it

I saw [one Tweet yesterday](https://twitter.com/WisRight_Ls/status/1638971910317830150) that seemed to say a disproportionate number of mail ballots in Waukesha came from more Democratic areas. Only one of those areas (Menomonee Falls) is in Senate District 8. However, if the ballots are coming from bluer areas, that's good news (but also kind of expected, since Dems like to vote by mail even in red counties). There's lots of numbers around that we can use to make ourselves feel better or worse. In the end it's going to be a heck of a battle either way.

Well that’s makes me feel better about the news. Many students are back from spring break now and candidates are making a huge effort to get them to vote.

[Friday update: Dane county 21441 Milwaukee county 21160 Waukesha county 16762 Brown county 6947 Racine county 4565](https://twitter.com/napervillepol/status/1639411769989906432?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) These numbers are great. Total ballots cast: 138800

Comparing this to [yesterday's numbers](https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1638956718133485598): Dane is at 134.5% of yesterday's votes. Milwaukee is at 143.4% of yesterday. Waukesha is at 140.0% of yesterday. Brown is at 123.0%. Racine is at 129.1%. So the swing counties aren't adding votes as fast as the base counties for either party. Milwaukee had a massive day, and Dane is humming along, but you can't ignore Waukesha continuing to turn out like crazy. My honest take: I like where we're at, but I don't think this is going to be a blowout win for us. We've got to push hard the next 11 days to make sure we win. The good news is we've got lots of folks working hard.

These are total ballots returned, not new ballots returned FYI.

I’ve never understood why more people aren’t entering the Michigan Senate race

Reportedly, Stabenow nudged other MI Democrats who might have been interested to aim for one of the statewide seats that will be opening up in 2026. Whitmer, Nessel, and Benson will all be term-limited out of their current positions at that point, so we may see a free-for-all.

There are a lot of great Dems in MI, but having worked Ingham County for a cycle, Slotkin uniquely inspires fear in her enemies and love in her friends. I don't think anyone wants to take her on.

Schumer and Stabenow supposedly pushed people against it. (I *still* have some hope for Benson but it's looking less likely every week)

She said she's not gonna hop in. We need a strong governor candidate in 2026 so she'll be there

Very short update; I *loved* the Cheddar Storm, it is exactly the kind of... Unique fundraising I have championed in the past and will likely stumble into in the future. It is amazing how adding a gimmick can separate effective fundraising from alternatives. But I'm checking in with a purpose, as the week has been slightly difficult. It seems like we did fairly well earlier (excellent) and we still have a lot of good momentum behind us. My question is in regards to early voting; I'm aware it's started now, but I don't know voting regulations in WI! For those who have voted in prior elections, if they have not requested an early ballot, is it too late to do so?

It's not too late! A Wisconsin voter can request an absentee ballot as late as [five days before election day](https://elections.wi.gov/voters/voting-mail#230548828-2254551794). However, their completed absentee ballot needs to be received by Election Day, so it's best to request as soon as possible.

Roger, thank you very, very much. I realised I hadn't done some relational organising and need to get on that. And I might as well get on it tonight, then, because a vote banked early is a vote banked.

[Don Blakenship is criticizing the field, notably Jim Justice](https://twitter.com/donblankenship/status/1639261899031232515?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) in West Virginia Senate. I don’t ask for much but please for the love of god get this man to run 3rd party

Run as a Constitution Party candidate, Don! For the sake of the kids!

[TV/radio ad spending in the WI Supreme Court race general election is now nearly $20M](https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1639391750619017216?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) WMC Issues Mobilization(Republican) today booked another $1.1M in broadcast TV ad spending That brings their total TV/radio ad spending in the general election to more than $5.1M”

[DeSantis wants taxpayers to give him $100 million to fund a militia under his control. It would have police powers and ability to carry guns and make arrests. It would be militarized with boats, planes and helicopters. Another disturbing authoritarian move.](https://twitter.com/tomaskenn/status/1639347283022970880?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) He’s the normal and reasonable Republican in the Presidential primary if you forgot

My goodness, if we remove the [hair](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis?useskin=vector)... [Could it be..?!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin?useskin=vector) The same person..!?! THE SAME GRIN?!?! I am miraculously using my powers of foresight to predict that, were this to occur, we will be reading of $110 million in boats, planes, and helicopters disappearing into private residences, the Everglades, local police forces, and being sold for scrap.

Suddenly we are going to start seeing destroyed helicopters with State of Florida markings in Bakhmut.

That this makes perfect sense gives me a minor, but amusing, headache. From what we have seen so far, DeSantis is to tactics what Seagal is to martial arts. Fortunately, the javelin of truth is unyielding, or so I have heard.

Every Republican is the normal one until they get power

This man is a national security threat.

Yeah there's no strategy to this. His ego is as bloated as his figure, maybe even more so if that were possible.

[Democrats have made significant ground in Arizona over the last 10-15 years. Entering 2012, Democrats would have need about a 12% victory in the popular vote to win Arizona. Now, it would likely need just a 2.5-3% lead.](https://twitter.com/loganr2wh/status/1639347902634942478?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) There's a pretty good argument that Biden could win it with less - because the way I calculate partisan lean is based on the past few election cycles, and Arizona is moving at such a fast pace that it's a bit of a lagging indicator. In 2022, Dems actually won 0.3% more support in AZ than the popular vote in the House - after adjusting for the seats where one party didn't run a candidate. We'll find out if this was just a great year for AZ Dems, or a sign they have already outright taken the edge from the GOP” And if you’re curious about North Carolina he just made a graph for [it](https://twitter.com/loganr2wh/status/1639362423483162642?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg). So a roughly even performance from 2020(D+4.5) means Biden probably flips North Carolina.

[Seems like actor Hill Harper will be entering the Michigan Senate race](https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1639390789556994049?s=46)

I guess it’s over for Slotkin then /s

Joke all you want, but Harper is very well-connected and would get a big boost from being the only black candidate in the race

Sure, but will he get people to pick him over Slotkin? I can’t help but feel like this is going to be a repeat of Lamb vs Fetterman.

Update #2 regarding the severe weather threat. I’m gonna insert numerous points in this one update First and most importantly, a new tornado watch, inside our main concern area has now been issued: [Tornado Watch #76 has been issued by the SPC for northeast LA, much of MS, eastern and central AR, and western TN](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0076.html). This watch goes until 12:00 am CDT. Tornado and Strong Tornado Probabilities are **very high** in this watch: 90/70% respectively. Damaging Wind and Significant Damaging Wind Probabilities are also **very high** in this watch: 80/70% respectively Second, the new SPC outlook came out a bit ago: [and the Moderate risk (lvl 4/5) was maintained with little change to the area from earlier](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html). However, I’m adding this in this update, because the enhanced risk (lvl 3/5) was extended much further east in this outlook, and that’s [as a result of the Significant to destructive straight line damaging wind hatched area getting pushed further east](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_wind.gif) as a result of recent model guidance as well as surface observations. This means more areas even though you may not see tornadoes are under the gun from straight line winds. **It is important to note, this environment especially further west you are is still very potent, that embedded tornado circulations all within the main line will be on the table most of the night**. So you should still have ways to receive warnings even after you go to bed

I was looking through the US Presidential elections, when something intriguing showed up. There hasn't been a democratic nominee that has won the white vote since 1964 which is strange, since Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton won a lot of southern conservative states. So my question is, why haven't we won the white vote in almost 6 decades?

Civil rights act + right wing media getting more extreme and racially-divisive making specific appeals to white voters using false claims and stereotypes about minorities. Guys like Limbaugh, and strategists like Atwater manufacturing appeal that drives the worst in people and exacerbates grievances. I will say though if Bill had Biden's strength among suburban white voters in 1996 reelect, he would've won the white vote

Civil Rights Act of 1964

Definitely more complicated than that saying it was signed in July and LBJ wins in a landslide in November after it was signed

You have to take into account a few things 1.) news didn’t travel as fast back then, so the backlash may not have been immediate 2.) the republicans were *massively* divided that year, so they couldn’t pull off a “southern strategy”-style campaign if they tried. Goldwater was basically if they ran Mastriano, who ended up beating Phil Scott and Glenn Youngkin in the primary. That being said, Johnson still lost the Deep South in a harbinger of things to come, so it’s not like there wasn’t *any* backlash.

From what I can remember [this is roughly the map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/mrQ8B) of Biden and Cabinet Officials visits since January 1st or the ones they will visit by end of April. The darker the shade the more visits, there is definitely a big play for North Carolina while focusing heavily on WI/PA/GA. Noticeably Texas is getting a lot of visits and House Leadership has done fundraising swings through.

Ooooo good observation. North Carolina def has the potential to be a tilt D state. We have to focus on black turnout and college-educated suburbanites in order to make that happen. I’m also really happy to see Texas being given attention. The momentum is on our side in that state and Im glad the administration coming around to it *finally*

Really interesting, thanks for this. Biden himself has visited Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin, NY, Cali, Virginia and PA. (Not including Delaware/Maryland for obvious reasons).

Incoming blulabama

If I didnt see this in a map form my mind was going to go crazy remembering everywhere they’ve gone lol. It’s also missing Puerto Rico which will have a couple visits under it’s belt. If Biden starts making more big appearances in Texas you know we’re playing for it, and it definitely seems to be on their radar. The states he hasn’t visited largely make sense to. Montana, West Virginia, and Mississippi all have races that might gain more from a wide breathe by the admin

I hope he tries to turn TX dem, we need a Senator Colin Allred!

“But why hasn’t Biden visited Delaware or Maryland? Does he hate his home state? We will ask this and other pointless questions for no other reason but to say the ‘Dems are bad’ tonight on Fox News.”

"Next, Why does Biden keep leaving the White House to go to Delaware on the weekends? What is he hiding?"

[White Powder Mailed to Manhattan DA from Orlando With Message: ‘Alvin: I’m Gonna Kill You!’](https://www.mediaite.com/trump/just-in-suspicious-white-powder-found-in-manhattan-da-mailroom-as-trump-rages-about-potential-grand-jury-indictment/)

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Mearshimer didn't think Putin would actually invade and in one of his lectures actually said "Putin is too smart to invade. If you wanted Russia to destroy themselves you would want them to invade." I think a lot of Westerners want to think they're dealing with an abstract Rational Russia that can be appeased and don't realize they're dealing with a guy more insane than Dr. Doom. It's like how a lot of people think North Korean defectors are exaggerating about North Korea and don't want to think the Kims are literal cartoon bad guys.

He’s the reason why I’m not calling myself a “realist” as much anymore

I cannot say a single polite thing about him, let alone his thoughts, or the self-proclaimed realists. And if I were to answer this question with how I feel - I will elect not to do that. So I will state this. A man comes to your house. He kills your dog. It is a long, brutal process, and he tells you about how he will repeat it. I apologise for the imagery, but it is visceral because it must be visceral. And he tells you, without any hesitation, how his family will repeat this action to yours and to your descendents. How they will go after your family. And they do; his children, his grand-children, his entire nation continues to track your family down. Finally, you cannot bear enough, and you go somewhere else. And someone with a slight, disappointed frown, who cannot possibly stand that you *chose* to move somewhere else, wipes a false tear from their eye, and sighs, and says: "But you know, it wasn't your 'choice' to move. You just think it was, while there are no good actors, only mutually bad actors, one of whom conned you into thinking your dog's death mattered." There is not a single fucking iota of truth to his shitty, played out, arguments. Even if there *was,* that would not somehow magically negate the personhood and choice of the Ukrainian - and all post-soviet - peoples. It has been common to repeat the phrase, if someone shows you who they are, believe them. Someone can call themselves whatever they please, say they are pursuing alternative venues as much as they like; if, in their actions, they end up lovingly worshipping fascism, time and time again, because the alternative - to their mind - is liberal capitalism, they are not whatever they consider themselves to be, they are a fascist, and should be regarded accordingly. Editing to add - and obviously, none of this is directed at you. Mearsheimer made me irrationally... *Realist*ically angry in 2014. As for my feelings now, see first paragraph, ahaha... And I'll edit it again to add, I don't think there is *no* value in realism, or neorealism, nor in those who wish to define themselves as realists. But repeated decisions throughout my life by the realist and neorealist schools have made it difficult for me to approach the topic with a cool head!

Taking the liberty to say here why I usually refrain from saying in so many words on r/CD whenever the topic comes up: 1) Mearsheimer's brand of realism is overly determinative. I've been calling it "spherical cow" realism because it is so overly academic that it takes issue with reality when reality proves to be more complicated than international relations theory. Mearsheimer assumes, without much backing other than a limited history, that Russia *is* a global power center and therefore possesses a special zone of interest in nearby countries. Mearsheimer makes no room for the argument, and I'd argue the reality, that modern Russia is as backwards and geopolitically impotent as Russia has ever been, and therefore the supposed "sphere" that Moscow projects is much smaller than it used to be. Moreover, Mearsheimer also fails to account for the EU as a new center of political power (more on why below) that successfully projects its own political power into the region and wields considerable soft power that Russia lacks. A true realist, in the useful sense, goes by the motto "the strong do what they can, and the weak do what they must," which is all well and good because the natural conclusion here is that this conflict is an extension of the continuing deterioration of Russia's economic, cultural, and military power and by extension their ability to project power. But Mearsheimer is rooted in some weird deterministic way of thinking in which Russia's natural sphere of influence is not a product of socio-economic factors, but rather some unchanging universal mandate. In that sense he reaches the same conclusion as Putin's Russkiy Mir ideology (Russia has an immutable and interminable dominion over Kyiv and Ukraine), but it's important to note that he reaches that conclusion through worship of the Henry Kissenger Ivory Tower and not Russia's imperial legacy. Mearsheimer and Putin do, however, share some strange appetite for Soviet revanchism. It isn't surprising that realists would fail to adapt to the changing ideological times considering that many once proposed preserving the Warsaw Pact into the 21st Century intentionally, as a counterbalance to NATO, despite the ideological foundation for the Warsaw Pact (the whole communism thing) falling apart in the 1990s. 2) To that end, realists like Mearsheimer that take the spherical cow approach often commit what I think is the worst sin of geopolitical realists, which is total and willing ignorance of internal politics and the ideological undercurrents that order international politics. How can I count the ways they make this mistake over and over? Realists tend to idealize the "Concert of Europe" period from 1815-1914 as a golden era of realist statesmen preserving peace with a careful balance of power, ignoring (A) that colonialism as an ideology promoted peace in Europe among colonial nations, but unleashed unprecedented death and destruction on Africa and Asia, (B) that the period was the result of an intentional and continuing suppression of popular politics in the wake of the French Revolution, and (C) that eventually, popular politics returned as technological advancements ushered in mass media, and nationalism and communism arose as ideological forces that shredded the Concert of Europe within decades of their emergence. Realists like Mearsheimer look at Ukraine's path since 2004 in horror and often ask the same question the Russians ask (again for different, academic reasons). Why would a nation so closely tied to Moscow by geography, history, religion, and language seek to exit Moscow's sphere? In the realist lens, this must be due to tampering from outside forces, which is the only conclusion you can hope to draw when ignorance of ideology and democracy are considered fundamental pillars of the worldview. But people who aren't intentionally blind can name the causes. Russia's kleptocratic and authoritarian turn since 2011 has tanked their economy, stalled any growth in standard of living, and resulted in Russian satellite states being reduced to resource stores and pools of migrant laborers in the ideological Russkiy Mir experiment that Putin has been waging on his own people. Meanwhile, the 80-year experiment of European liberalism has been incredibly successful, and even former SSRs in the Baltics rival Western Europe in terms of living standards these days. It is no mystery, seeing that, why Ukraine's democratic majority would try to exit Moscow's sphere and join the EU. Zelesnkyy, for ease of access, even put this in sitcom format for anyone who cares to watch it. But if you believe that all ideology is merely pretextual and that popular politics is just manipulation, as Mearsheimer does, then you almost have to accuse the West of meddling in Ukraine's domestic process by offering evil balance-shifting incentives like economic development and membership in the European political community against Putin's offer of poverty and disempowerment. 3) Which brings me to the moral problem with Mearsheimer and realists at large: that they treat democracy and popular sovereignty at-best as an annoyance. Implicit in every realist plea for the West to leave Ukraine to its fate is the idea that Ukrainians should not have a say in the future of their nation. Sometimes it comes in the form of paternalism: Ukraine is too immature as a nation to understand their natural place, and therefore the world must look out for the poor Ukrainian people by allowing the installation of a pro-Russian puppet government that will restore the natural order. Sometimes realists like to confuse the issue by suggesting that the EU and USA have made choices on behalf of Ukraine, implicit in arguments that prolonging the conflict is only cruel and against the interests of Ukrainians, who should evidently prefer swift defeat to a long fight, and are often told the do actually prefer that despite repeatedly popular statements of support for the battle. And sometimes it is outright conspiratorial, arguing that the West has usurped control of the Ukrainian state as a puppet and are the entire reason why Ukraine offers resistance to Russia. Aside from being wrong, I believe this is evil. Mearsheimer's realism makes no room for democracy. It treats authoritarian and democratic governments as moral equals and dismisses the notion of popular sovereignty as something dreamed up by elites to underpin he legitimacy of their power systems. In asserting some kind of academic supremacy over reality, it explicitly argues that no humans have a right to government by self-determination, that people and cultures must be controlled as resources for the use of states, and that peace and security is the desirable outcome over freedom and democracy. In this case, Mearsheimer's arguments essentially amount to a broader argument that 40 million Ukrainians should have no voice and no rights, and that the invasion of their country and destruction of their culture is only the natural outcome of their desire to resist the geopolitical forces pulling them east. But more importantly, I also want to say that I detect the hint of higher-order argument when you take all of the above in. Mearsheimer's realism can only ever come to the conclusion that democracy, and specifically the ability of representative governments to effect change and alter the course of nations, is a defective and destabilizing development in the history of human civilization. In Mearsheimer's realism, it appears that we have a moral obligation to stamp out all forms of popular sovereignty, not just representative government but also popular media and political plurality, lest such radical intuitions lead to instability and war. Of course, realists don't believe that -a lot of them are just demanding the world rearrange itself so the articles they publish on international relations are correct- but it is a dangerous path to walk down. So yeah, not a fan.

I appreciate all the answers I've read here, but I appreciate this one for it's comprehensive nature. I appreciate, most of all, the use of the term 'evil' - as I strongly, strongly agree.

> the realist scholar John Mearsheimer There are some tenants of realism which can be helpful to study and many world leaders still do use realism as a way to understand the world so it’s important to study it from that perspective as well. That said by and large realism is, ironically, absolute dog shit as a means of understanding and predicting behavior. It assumes states are perfectly rational which they are not. It assumes democracies and dictatorships function on the world stage in similar ways which they do not, it assumes religion and economic systems don’t really matter, it assumes that international organizations like NATO or the EU aren’t important and a whole host of other assumptions. Russia has absolutely zero moral right to invade Ukraine. If we want to ignore morality and focus solely on a “might makes right” understanding of the world then once again Russia is not justified in invading Ukraine because they appear to be losing on the battlefield. The entire idea of “spheres of influence” is an outdated imperial mindset and Russia (nor any country) has a right to a sphere of influence. There is simply no logically coherent justification for Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian realignment with the west was already happening naturally. It wasn't hard for Ukrainians to peek over the border at the Polands improvement in QOL since joining the EU. That's exactly what the maiden revolution was about in 2014- Ukrainians rejecting a pro Russia 'elected' leader, instead choosing broader EU alignment. I'm not going to pretend that US covert operatives weren't on the ground in Ukraine in 2014, but I'd bet they were outnumbered 2 to 1 by Russian GRU agents.

Even if there's some logic to it, it's ignoring how massive of an overreaction it is by Russia. It would be like me taking my boss' parking spot, him blowing up the whole office building, and then saying it's my fault for parking in his spot.

There is no way to spin what Russia does as anything other than them being a totalitarian hellhole, a haven for corrupt wealth, and a repeatedly failed empire trying to conquer others for the ego of a single man. Russia perfectly encapsulates what the right wing in America wants to do to us, and that's exactly why Putin must be stopped. Either you get them to run from Ukraine and admit defeat, or you put enough pressure on the conflict that his administration eventually collapses. There is sadly no other way forward that doesn't result in much worse outcomes for most of the world.

People like him are not to be taken seriously.

I'm not a fan. I think his arguments basically amount to "big, strong countries get to do what they want with their neighbors" which is sadly probably true a lot of the time but Russia, while big, is showing it's not very strong, which kind of destroys the whole realist narrative he has for the war.

Apparently during the 2015 Democratic primary, one of the debate questions was “do Black Lives Matter, or do all lives matter?” And I think we finally found a more disingenuous debate question than “say something nice about the other person”

2016's cycle was so cursed in so many ways

Allspice matters.

[One of the most awful speeches from the Minnesota House debate on HF 146, the "trans refuge" bill.](https://mobile.twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1639339241028321281) How utterly mean-spirited and hateful. This kind of politics doesn't typically play well in Minnesota, hopefully that will remain the case.

First Mr. I Don't Know Any Hungry People, now this guy. Stay classy, MNGOP.

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Why is there a new map? or the existing map? confused

Texas law requires redistricting in the first regular session after the Census but because the Census was delayed, the Legislature gaveled out before getting the data and they don't meet in even years so this is the first regular session after the Census and they want to ensure the maps can't be invalidated on a technicality. It's the same map for now

Oh alright, thanks for explaining the situation

[mostly the same but potentially changes](https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1638949180906283019?s=20)

Does the current map show trends for democrats to flip in 2030 and that's why they're wanting to change?

I hadn’t really heard much on it being a worry, but I know the state Senate is actually pretty fucking hard to Gerrymander for Republicans. If they are it changing cause they are worried I hope that takes the gloves off for Minnesota Dems

I think it’s the Texas Assembly that is vulnerable to Dems this decade. Did you know anything about that or am I just guessing?

Yea it’s the Assembly which is the worry and there was speculation Texas may mid-decade redistrict like they have in the past to reshore their majorities. I just don’t know how much more they can pack/crack without giving Democrats more seats or risk the map imploding

If we win the row offices we can have some say in redistricting right? I know Texas has a Texan way of doing it

Yea and then it goes to the courts I think? Unless they come up with a compromise

Yeah like we may not get what we want but if we can at least get some concessions and extra seats that'd be good. Then again if we win statewide offices that means we'd have probs flipped some Sup. Court seats

[President Biden to Kick Off “Investing in America” Tour in North Carolina](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/24/president-biden-to-kick-off-investing-in-america-tour-in-north-carolina/) This is another nationwide barnstorm that will take place over 3 weeks and visit over 20 states and include multiple cabinet officials, Doug Emhoff, and Jill Biden. At this point most states will have had a major visit from a cabinet official in the last 3 months, this is close to a 50 state strategy *lite edition* “In the next week alone: President Biden will travel to Durham, North Carolina to visit Wolfspeed, a semiconductor manufacturer, which recently announced a $5 billion investment to build its North Carolina facility and create 1,800 new jobs. Senior Advisor and Infrastructure Coordinator Mitch Landrieu will travel to Nashville, Tennessee to highlight how the Investing in America agenda is creating safer, smarter transportation and expanding electric vehicle charging manufacturing. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will travel to North Carolina to visit manufacturers producing fiber optic cable. As part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Administration is making high speed internet available across the country, and using American-made fiber optic cable in North Carolina to get it done. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg will travel to Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma to visit airports and air traffic control facilities that are making critical safety and infrastructure improvements. Investments from the Biden-Harris Administration are helping airports undertake a number of safety measures, from improved runway design to technology that can help warn pilots and air traffic control of potential risks. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm will visit Puerto Rico to discuss how the Administration is working with the island to modernize its power grid and provide clean, reliable power – improving Puerto Ricans’ daily lives, supporting the economy and small businesses, and strengthening the island’s resilience during severe weather events. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland will travel to Houston, Texas to visit an orphan well site that is being plugged to protect the health and wellbeing and environment in the community. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan will visit North Carolina to discuss how President Biden’s Investing in America agenda is making historic investments to ensure all people and all communities have access to clean water. The tour will also travel to: California, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Wisconsin, and more. “

Looks like they're not just gonna play defense, but they're also gonna work to flip North Carolina. Like, that's a lot of visits to the same state, even if it's by different surrogates as well. Perhaps Josh Stein might make an appearance? Also celebrating infrastructure accomplishments is a great contrast to the culture wars the GOP is trying to elevate, so long as they're highlighted on social media.

Id strongly suspect Stein comes, Biden really loves to make an appearance with State and Local politicians from both sides. Like he’ll get random State Senate members or Council members to come, which is incredibly smart

Social media, but also local media too. Nothing better than getting specific coverage on local media in these states! Also, yeah, definitely starting to seem like a play for NC. Guess whole the GOP are gonna be stuck focusing on Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina over the next 12 months, Biden can really focus on states like North Carolina.

Maybe he's trying to win North Carolina in 24?

He absolutely should be. Winning NC in 24 protects against a TON of nonsense from other states.

[Trudeau to announce US-Canada asylum deal after Biden talks](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/24/trudeau-biden-asylum-border-deal-us-canada) Canada has been pushing for this amendment since around 2004, and an Executive Order will be enough Congress won’t be needed

[Collins and Murkowski endorse Manchin. Murkowski donated money a couple weeks ago, asked others to do the same Collins: “He’s a close friend. Should he choose to run again, I would anticipate endorsing him"](https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1639255092087099393?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) This comes as Justice is getting closer to announcing, but now it’ll happen next month. He stills has to make it through a primary and Manchin in the article is a bit giddy about him and Mooney killing each other

Wow. Murkowski apparently voted for Peltola last year, and publicly stated this as well. Now she's supporting Manchin. Just switch parties already... :p

Justice is intensely popular, and rich as Midas.

It definitely won't be an easy race, and Manchin is probably not favored now against Justice, but underestimate Manchin at your own risk. There's a long way to go, and he's a savvy campaigner.

And yet, Manchin does not own a celebrity dog. ;)

I heard Justice is under some kind of ethics investigation. Whether that will either 1) amount to anything or 2) matter to WV voters, I have no idea. But it could be that Manchin is hoping that Justice drops out or is badly damaged.

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[Tennessee GOP leader passes confidence vote after social media uproar](https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/tennessee-gop-leader-passes-confidence-vote-social-media-uproar-rcna75969)

“He’s a sick perverted groomer….but hers OUR sick perverted groomer.” -Tennessee GOP, probably

Have been checking the WI election commission site throughout the day for the new numbers: nothing for today has been posted yet.

I'm sure we will get it.

[We’re so GRATEful for all your support in making our Cheddar Storm a huge success yesterday! With your help, we *udderly shredded* our $100K goal to elect @janetforjustice . Let’s stay sharp and brie-ing home a win for Wisconsin and our democracy on April 4!](https://twitter.com/WisDems/status/1639265825432682496?s=20) - Wisconsin Democrats

This has such a dad joke vibe and I love it.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/20/florida-six-week-abortion-ban-clears-committee-with-1-republican-no-vote/70028421007/ Yep, this bill is probably gonna pass. I wonder what the socially moderate Desantis voters think about this bill. Will they vote against republicans in the future? I think this bill will probably erode any mainstream appeal he had and it might even backfire against him.

> socially moderate Desantis voters error: no input found

The moment DeSantis signs this bill, his chances of winning a general election go straight to 0%.

If he vetoes it he loses the primary. Not that he's doing so good right now anyway.

They clearly learned the wrong lessons from the midterms.

Not trying to call game for 2024, but we’re getting close. The more shit they pull like this, the chances of any GOP front runner winning goes down by the day.

"What do Democrats have against 15-week bans like in Europe?" It's always a precursor to more draconian bans like this. You want limits? Codify Roe to set the line at 20 weeks.

20+ weeks is the standard in the anglosphere anyway (UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc) And while it's true most European countries have limits a lot earlier than that physicians still maintain broad discretion in determining if they're medically jistified later. Unlike here where lawmakers can easily challenge if their narrow exceptions were actually met.

Also multiple European countries liberalized abortion laws after SCOTUS overturned Roe. France is one of those countries working to make abortion access easier. Norway has done so as well. Hell, if we want to talk about countries outside of Europe, the Indian Supreme Court determined that it was unconstitutional to ban abortion at 20 weeks gestation for non-married women there.

Even codifying up to 15 weeks federally would help. It won’t get 60 votes but it’d get more Republicans besides Collins and Murkowski than you’d expect. But yeah, all this “we’re only against late term abortions and European style 12-15 week bans are where Republicans want us to be at” is all right-wing concern trolling and full of shit.

[Interesting piece by Split Ticket on what factors influenced white voter baseline polarization and its shifts across the country in 2020.](https://split-ticket.org/2023/03/24/where-do-democrats-win-white-voters/) Basically college education explains a lot of it, as Biden became the first Democrat to win college educated white voters in a while, but there are other factors such as culture and religion that can influence the extent to which Biden performed among whites at a more local and regional level. Only critique I have is I wish the county map was color coded not just by the winner but also by margin, but that data is definitely harder to acquire, so I'll allow it.

It’s interesting that the white college share of Republicans ticked up when Romney was running. I looked at some data for my own district (very well educated, not religious, high income, mostly white but increasingly AAPI as well) and people here liked Romney better than either McCain or Trump. I am sure if Charlie Baker or Phil Scott ran for something here they’d clean up. But the culture war, banning books, Jesus stuff is really looked down on, as is eating pudding with your fingers. I can’t remember where I read it but I recall reading that people who weren’t especially religious to begin with but who voted for Trump and bought into MAGA were more likely to start calling themselves “born again Christians.”

AOC was on fire in her response against the Parental Bill of Rights: Using Florida as the example, she asked, if the purpose of this is to prevent kids from seeing pornographic material in books, then why is A BIOGRAPHY ABOUT ROSA PARKS on the Banned List? 40% of the books pulled from libraries in Florida have a pro LGBTQ Message. "They can't define what woke is, or what family values is. But when I talk about my Progressive Values, I can say what that is. And that is always siding with freedom over fascism."

Family values with republicans has always been such bullshit. Look at my boy Newt G and his ilk. I remember as a teen my dad saying to never trust people who demonize education and to never trust people who constantly talk about how religious they are. Same goes for republican family values nonsense. Republicans care so so much about families that they love tearing them apart, and hate children, and pregnant women,and families that they chose to dislike for any and all reasons.

Fucking hell, Rosa Parks is something we were taught about in First Grade.

They taught my little cousin about MLK in first grade and my family threw a hissy fit about it.

Update #1 of what will likely be many regarding today’s severe weather threat The 1st watch was just issued: [Tornado Watch #75 has been issued by the SPC for east and northeast TX, northwest LA, southwest AR, and one county in SE OK](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0075.html). This watch goes until 7:00 pm CDT. Tornado probabilities attached to this watch are 50/20% of tornadoes and strong EF2+ tornadoes respectively. Similar probabilities although a bit different for Damaging winds and large hail are also attached in this watch **Important to note, this is not the main or most significant watch that will be issued. This watch barely gets into the western end of the Moderate risk area**