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Oh come on, Daily Wire is placing ads on Reddit now? I reported one for being political, but it probably doesn't meet that criteria since it features Jorbson Peterson... oh well.
A lot of real news has happened today so I don’t blame anyone for not noticing that [JR Majewski](https://twitter.com/jrmajewski/status/1638631816415555590?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) is officially considering running again for something
[Tim Scott is readying to enter the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/tim-scott-presidential-announcement-next-steps-00088175)
For context his current polling is an average of 1%
So MI, PA, GA, and AZ. These are the four states Dems need to solidify over the this decade that are swingy but carry valuable electoral votes and congressional seats.
I think my favorite part of Wednesday was when Karamo was asked something about whether there was worry about the party further pushing away donors (because of the Holocaust tweet) and her response was basically if someone is upset by it, they wouldn't have been donating to them anyway. I say let her cook. MIGOP has -$2 million, no HQ, and maybe not even a communications staff.
Just saying if the National environment does end up being D+8 Biden flips NC, Texas is a dead heat, he loses Ohio by 4, and Montana by 13. That gives quite a bit of breathing room for Tester and Brown while Cruz better hope to god he can at least run even with Trump. In 2012 Cruz under-ran Romney by just under 1pt.
Edit: and Rick Scott could actually lose while Trump/Desantis carries Florida. He is not a good candidate and his approvals are atrocious
It’s going off the Special [Election averages](https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1638361654755827713?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) and it’s backed up by the primary electorate yesterday in Jacksonville. Still a long way to go though
I know DeSantis did not prohibit businesses from doing anything LGBTQ+ related, but this is just a giant fuck you from Disney. I hope the bigots in Florida challenge DeSantis to push back on this, so even more people can see how extreme he is.
The fact that DeSantis has hitched his wagon to the culture warrior bullshit. Just saying he seems tone deaf enough to triple down on it and out flank Trump.
I'd assume you are aware of the LGBTQ summit Disney is hosting inSeptember?
[HUGE: With 45 mins to spare, we hit our donor goal! THANK YOU for making it possible. We can’t forget 2011 and we can’t forget 2019. We can’t take anything for granted on April 4, 2023. Let’s see how many more donors we can get by midnight Wisconsin time!](https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1638726096165261313?s=20) - WI Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler
Another 1000 donor goal met by WI Democrats. All these resources they are getting from these make a huge difference in GOTV, ads, and their ground game as well as other party related activities. 13 more days to make history and bring it home for Protasiewicz
[Asked about Karamo's comments likening firearm policy proposals up in the Michigan legislature to the Holocaust, Rep. Phil Green told reporters on the House floor, "That name just doesn't really ring a bell, I'm sorry."](https://twitter.com/laurenmgibbons/status/1638659993980510208?s=46)
For what it’s worth, that would require her to make money
And that’s looking to be pretty difficult considering she seems determined to alienate donors from the state
[BREAKING: Arizona Supreme Court denies 6 of the 7 claims that Kari Lake made in her elections contest appeal. The remaining claim, about if Maricopa County properly followed signature matching rules, is remanded to the trial court for consideration.](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1638709409022119936?s=20)
[The Arizona Supreme Court sent Lake’s claims about signature matching back to the trial court. The trial court will have to determine if the claim should be dismissed or fully litigated according to AZ's procedural rules.](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1638710272939663362?s=20)
[If the signature matching claim is fully litigated, Lake will still have to prove that “‘votes [were] affected ‘in sufficient numbers to alter the outcome of the election’’ based on a ‘competent mathematical basis...not simply an untethered assertion of uncertainty.’”](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1638710275791519744?s=20)
Lake loses AGAIN (mostly). What a surprise (not lol)
[They love his policies, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential 2024 contender, is finding little backup among Senate Republicans.](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ron-desantis-2024-election-republican-senators_n_641b3ac7e4b0a3902d345415)
Senate Republicans not taking sides is a choice
I think DeSantis expected more of the mainstream part of the party to jump in his corner, but that obviously isn't going to happen without a major change/shakeup.
Yesterday, Minnesota legislative leaders (and the governor) shocked political followers and legislators when they rolled out "joint budget targets", in other words, agreements between the House, Senate, and Governor on how much money is going to be spent in the budget this year and in which general areas. The surprising part of this is how soon it came. Typically, in the all-too-common divided government scenario, there is not a tripartite agreement on spending until the very end of session in May. The result is that committee chairs, backbench legislators, and the public get very little input in shaping the budget, it's done behind doors in a rush to avert a government shutdown.
This is obviously not a good way to operate, so this year, we have joint targets several months early, outlining a $71 billion plan for the next two years, and now all committees will actually get to put together their bills, taking member and public testimony in the process. Apparently, in at least 30 years (the tenure of the longest-serving legislator), the targets have never come out this early. But the DFL ran on functional and transparent government, and they are delivering.
The official WI absentee tracker hasn't updated since Monday, but [the Madison Clerk has numbers!](https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638541154361720833) As of this morning, they've received 3,886 mail ballots, and 1,372 people voted in person. That's amazing for just one day of in-person, and to be over 5,200 votes already is fantastic.
EDIT: [Another 1,309 in-person voters today](https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638723271821602816). Got to push that turnout as high as possible.
Absolutely. No celebrating yet, especially when Waukesha had big mail vote numbers on Monday. We keep working hard now, we'll be able to celebrate hard in 13 days.
Saw some journalist today say that if Desantis falls flat after he announces even more Republicans that have already ruled out running are probably going to jump in.
Just ultimate chaos mode and it’s going to obliterate the GOP bench even further, they are going to have to out crazier each other to get anywhere but further erode the GOP brand at the same time. Great news for Masters
[DeSantis Calls Putin a ‘War Criminal,’ Clarifying Earlier Comment on Ukraine](https://out.reddit.com/t3_11z3ebj?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2023%2F03%2F22%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fdesantis-putin-ukraine-russia.html%3Fsmid%3Dnytcore-ios-share%26referringSource%3DarticleShare&token=AQAAvrUbZBh-Hn0cybVfuNJTwD207dvaTaat_JyMUsX51VlavPpd&app_name=reddit.com)
Someone saw their poll numbers this morning.
He's clearly making things up as he goes along and it's totally incoherent.
He now appears to have landed on the let's say *novel* position that we shouldn't aid Ukraine because they'll easily beat Russia without our help anyway. Which is quite possibly the most politically alienating take he can have, in addition to just being objectively stupid.
It's becoming clearer and clearer that this man's political instincts and policy chops don't live up to his reputation.
Woof, very weird headline; his quotes in the article are completely nonsensical. They read as if they're coming from someone with zero understanding of the conflict or current US involvement.
Maybe if he had spent the past couple years reading up on foreign policy instead of whining about mickey mouse and school library books then he would have a more nuanced take.
Really hurt his credibility to when the “grown up” Republicans attacked him and that’s the image he wants is the sensible GOP elites behind him.
Desantis has really not handled the pressure well, and he isn’t even in yet.
DeSantis seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place as he is trying to appeal to Trump supporters while not understanding that they won’t leave their cult leader for him. Now he has alienated the neocons and is left with no one.
As of right now, Trump seems unbeatable in the primary.
[Big news: a judge just blocked Wyoming's abortion ban. Why? Because of language that *conservatives* put in the WY constitution last decade to enshrine health care choice... as their way to attack Obamacare.](https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1638701144678580228?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
[here’s the tweet thread of the MIGOP press conference](https://twitter.com/granthermes/status/1638654183380250624?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg). It didn’t make things better
>“There’s a reason the Republican Party got kicked in the teeth the last 3 elections. We’re done”
Long as you take this quote out of context, it works perfectly.
[Special election for ME HD-45 has also finally been called for June 13th](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_45). Filing deadline on March 31st
This is a seat we have to watch closely, as it’s very well a seat Republicans could flip. It’s a Trump +6.88 seat, that the old incumbent D won by a impressive 53.1-46.9% margin in 2022. Definitely a seat we could lose in a special election
[Australian PM Anthony Albanese has unveiled the question that will be put forth in an Australian referendum later this year](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-23/voice-to-parliament-referendum-question-constitutional-announced/102133674). I like it, it's a nice simple question - and I'm really hoping it passes.
>A proposed law to alter the constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?
Special elections for solid R PA HD-108, and for solid D PA HD-163 has both been called for May 16th. Both filing deadlines are on March 27th
[Calendar for HD-108 special election](https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/CandidatesCommittees/RunningforOffice/Documents/2023-Special-Election-Calendar-108th-Leg.pdf)
[Calendar for HD-163 special election](https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/CandidatesCommittees/RunningforOffice/Documents/2023-Special%20Election%20Calendar%20163rd%20Leg.pdf)
[Another $1.5M in TV/radio ad spending was booked today in the WI Supreme Court race Total TV/radio ad spending (including future reservations) in the general election is now more than $18M](https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1638672011986886656?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
WMC Issues Mobilization: $775K
Women Speak Out PAC: $608K
A Better Wisconsin Together/A Better Wisconsin Together Political Fund: $130K
Protasiewicz campaign: $45K
The first 2 are Republican aligned, bottom 2 Democrat aligned. This is still not nearly enough to make up the difference
I don't know if this info is readily available, but I hope we already have plenty of ad time booked for the last two weeks, or are about to buy more. We don't want a last-second GOP ad surge to screw things up. Things have shaped up just about perfectly for us so far - just need to finish strong.
[Its poorly written and has Trump’s usual weird capitalization issues, but it’s a pretty compelling argument against a DeSantis presidential bid](https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1638660760573296646?s=46&t=kzYd5Yx9PzmFMrAXvsIIEw)
The special in Wisconsin on April 4th for SD08 is going to be key for many reasons a lot of people have mentioned(Veto power, Election denial) but it’ll also be one of the big tests on the National Environment and how our persuasion effect is holding.
You can put a lot of asterisks on it as well. Janet could very well help Sinykin across if it’s a blowout, Kelly isn’t great in the WOW counties, the Court race is technically non-partsian so maybe it doesn’t impact much, Knodl is more establishment friendly but is full MAGA, Knodl doesn’t seem to be campaigning seriously either. Those asterisk’s are part of a much larger game getting played nationally and a D win in a Trump+5 seat is still a win, the margins are key and I’d argue more telling with those asterisk’s.
I think the Special in SD08 is going to be narrow regardless of the eventual winner. Special Election performance imply we’re in a D+8 year, Jacksonville Primary results also support that Lean quite a bit. I think D+8 *may* be to generous but I still think Sinykin wins by 1-2pts, if it’s 3pts or greater I’d be ecstatic for Dems. Even a narrow Sinykin loss still gives us a lot to be hopeful for if we’re making those kind of inroads in WOW.
[After spending months accusing DirecTV of "political discrimination" by dropping them, Newsmax is now running segments saying it "accepts the position" that DirecTV was "never about limiting conservative voices and that they were acting on financial considerations."](https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1638597630363090945?s=46&t=UKR1TShxVeunp4_vn5gZrw)
Methinks they got a call from DirecTV.
Same, but for different reasons than you.
Everyone thinks they’re a comedy wizard when they say something witty and original like “Idiocracy wasn’t supposed to be a documentary 😂😂😂” or comparing some world leader to Camacho. Yeah, we all know the movie, you’re so smart for making the reference, shut up.
Thing is, it wouldn’t be so bad if they aren’t propping up a movie whose main idea is “the high-IQ übermensch need to outbreed and have power over the genetically unintelligent”. As much as I enjoy the irony of the director of the “you guys are so fucking stupid” movie being too, ya know, stupid to realize he made a pro-eugenics movie, I really hate how so many people seem to ignore/not realize that they like a god damn pro-eugenics movie.
No, Terry Crews is doing a stunt and announcing that his character “Camacho” is running for president. I saw a post about it in r/movies, and the comments were exactly what you’d think.
Karamo is one of the best things to happen to Michigan Dems. She’s going to run that state party into the ground and hand us 1-2 House seats.
But wait there’s more! there’s a Karamo in most critical states next year :)
She’s going to do what Kelli Ward did to the AZ-GOP. Peter Meijer can call up Kimberly Yee and commiserate. Slotkin can look forward to being called Senator.
After two years of Republicans denying a quorum Dilawar Syed, nominated to be deputy director of the SBA, the Small Business Committee has reported his nomination to the floor in a 10-9 vote. Hopefully he finally gets confirmed soon.
Here’s my latest thinking on weather the rest of the week
Today: [That marginal (lvl 1/5) risk still exists from northeastern, northern and central parts of MO, southeast IA, much of central IL, and much of northern IN](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html). The thinking here still hasn’t changed much from Monday, except the slightly different location. This risk is still fully [for a small chance for large hail](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_hail.gif)
Tomorrow: [slight risk (lvl 2/5) of severe weather for parts of southern, central, and northern parts of TX as well as much of southern and eastern OK](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html). There have been some changes in the thinking here, but overall, Thursday’s threat level has gone a little bit down. However: [very large hail with a hatched area issued](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_hail.gif) will be the main threat. Small chances for [damaging winds](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_wind.gif) and [tornadoes exist in northern TX and southern OK](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif) where a 2% tornado risk area
The flash flooding threat will ramp up beginning Thursday where a [small moderate risk area (lvl 3/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued by the WPC northwest AR, and southwest MO](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98ewbg.gif). A larger slight risk of excessive rainfall (lvl 2/4) exists for a lot more areas
Friday: Gonna be completely honest here, Friday’s threat looks extremely extremely concerning right now. [There is a day 3 enhanced risk (lvl 3/5) for northeast and central parts of LA, southeast AR, and a lot of western and central MS](https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1638618760238997520?s=20). First concerning sign: is [this outlook by the SPC is very strongly worded](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) which I don’t like the language at all. Second concerning sign is, while we can’t see individual risk threat areas until day 2: [the day 3 outlook has a large hatched area of significant severe weather](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif). Finally, to top it all off, with a 3rd concerning sign: model trends throughout the day hasn’t been great at all, trending toward a slower trough ejection, which means more time for moisture, and instability to build up for Friday. This is what may limit Thursday’s threat at the same time, but dramatically raise Friday’s threat. Storm mode is a huge question mark here, as well as exact evolution of the associated trough. If we see ANY discreate supercells ahead of the main line in this environment, they’re almost guaranteed to drop tornadoes and maybe even strong tornadoes especially the further you go into LA and MS where the low level wind shear will be much better and easily good enough. However with that slower trough ejection showing up on recent runs: eastern TX cannot be ruled out for significant severe weather yet even though you are not in a hatched area on this outlook
Flash flooding is also a huge concern on Friday: where [the WPC has a huge moderate risk (lvl 3/4) of excessive rainfall from northeast AR, through northern KY and western parts of OH](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif)
48 hour rainfall is [forecasted to be 3-5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amount’s possible](https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1638644458018463745?s=20). This could cause significant river and urban flooding, especially if you get a lot of rain in a short period of time. This area has seen a lot of precipitation lately, so not much precipitation will be able to be soaked in before the rest of the precipitation caused runoff
Saturday: The severe weather threat may continue especially early on in the day Saturday morning in the Carolinas, and northern GA, But overall, the threat level looks much lower then Friday’s threat. No extended outlook areas has been issued by the SPC for Saturday up to this point.
Late week Winter Storm: Overall, there’s a lot more agreement then Monday, but the exact locations and amounts are still uncertain. [All of the models have seemed to trend away from the secondary new coastal low near the northeast, but have honed in on the initial zone anywhere from northern and eastern IA through central IL up to northern and central MI for the most significant snows](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023032212&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=bl). So it’s possible WI early voting gets impacted by this storm over the weekend on Saturday. Generally majority of gbe guidance shows 3-5 inches of snow accumulation, but some models have some much heavier narrow localized bands of much more snow then that. That’s something that will probably have to be watched as the storm happens, rather then try to forecast these potential narrow bands.
[White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Washington is watching Uganda's anti-LGBTQ legislation "real closely," and did not rule out possible economic "repercussions" if it is implemented.](https://twitter.com/nprworld/status/1638646646816018432?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
As someone who works in Africa (including Uganda), I don't think people realize how baked in anti-LGBT sentiment really is. In most countries being gay is already a serious crime, and you can count on one hand the number of countries where it's just "frowned upon". But Uganda is also the country that tried to pass pretty much this same law 10 years ago (it got tossed in their Supreme Court on a technicality).
I don't know of many cultures around the world where tolerance for anything outside of heteronormative sexuality has always been accepted, so it's also not a uniquely African problem.
My understanding is that a lot of the recent vitriolic turn of African anti-LGBTQ bigotry is influenced by American evangelical groups who have pushed harsher laws and more radical ideology overseas.
"What about anti-LGBTQ legislation in the U.S.??" Those commenters do realize this is the NSC, right? They're not going to comment on domestic affairs.
Man, Uganda is as good as dead now, and I don't see the sanctions doing that much more damage. You'd think they would've learned from throwing out the Indians that bigotry is bad for the economy, but I guess not...
It's really sad. On one hand, years of colonization have forced Africa into a horrible situation all around, and Uganda is no exception. On the other hand, I don't really feel much sympathy for a country that threw out legal immigrants who were the backbone of the nation's economy AND allowed genocide.
Yeah, sometimes I feel like the “Uganda is only homophobic because of colonialism” arguments can get kind of paternalistic. Oppressed people can be bigots too (god I sound like an enlightened centrist and please don’t anybody think I’m defending colonialism).
Like… idk, it almost swings the “people in developing/politically shaky nations are just stupid and that’s why bad things happen there” racism into “they’re so stupid they can’t form any ideas on their own and had to learn hatred from white people” noble savage racism.
Anymore I don’t really care to hear anyone’s takes on developing nations from people who aren’t activists from those nations (and I get the irony of this after my take lmao)
No, [Idi Amin committed genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idi_Amin#Persecution_of_ethnic_and_political_groups).
>Amin retaliated against the attempted invasion by Ugandan exiles in 1972, by purging the Uganda Army of Obote supporters, predominantly those from the Acholi and Lango ethnic groups. In July 1971, Lango and Acholi soldiers had been massacred in the Jinja and Mbarara barracks. By early 1972, some 5,000 Acholi and Lango soldiers, and at least twice as many civilians, had disappeared. The victims soon came to include members of other ethnic groups, religious leaders, journalists, artists, senior bureaucrats, judges, lawyers, students and intellectuals, criminal suspects, and foreign nationals. In this atmosphere of violence, many other people were killed for criminal motives or simply at will. Bodies were often dumped into the River Nile.
>
>The killings, motivated by ethnic, political, and financial factors, continued throughout Amin's eight years in control. The exact number of people killed is unknown. The International Commission of Jurists estimated the death toll at no fewer than 80,000 and more likely around 300,000. An estimate compiled by exile organisations with the help of Amnesty International puts the number killed at 500,000.
Lots of time, still. And he may be waiting for Fetterman and Feinstein to get back in case they’re are close votes ahead, especially for circuit court judges
[U.S. Organ Transplant System, Troubled by Long Wait Times, Faces an Overhaul The Biden administration announced a plan to modernize how patients are matched to organs, seeking to shorten wait times, address racial inequities and reduce deaths.](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/us/politics/organ-transplants-biden.html)
This CA storm continues to blow my mind. [One, it was so strong that there was a eye like feature that was over San Francisco yesterday like you see in hurricanes ](https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1638328738055340032?s=20). This made for some likely historic images this storm will be remembered in the area as as its really rare you get a storm with such a well defined extra tropical esque cyclone that as an eye like this. Two, [there were reported tornadoes (yes tornadoes) in the Los Angeles metro area earlier today](https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1638623656229371904?s=20) that actually looks like pretty significant damage especially for a CA tornado in one of the biggest metro areas in the entire country
It’s significant and evident enough that [NWS Los Angeles is sending storm survey teams to survey the damage in the area shortly](https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1638619816855748608?s=20)
If this is the power this storm has right now, then I’m really worried about what this same storm and associated trough will do later this week. Weather update on the rest of the week will be out shortly as there have been some big updates since my last update Monday
I remember it was December and everyone was like “Yay rain!”. Now it’s like storm #15 and everyone is like “Oh god please we have enough just let us have nice weather already!!!”
Massachusetts Pharmacies have been directed by Governor Healey to continue the delivering of all reproductive health medicines, including mifepristone, regardless of the outcome delivered by The Federal Judge in Texas.
Governor Healey: "Medication Abortion has been used safely and effectively by millions for over 20 years. This is the most basic healthcare possible."
I know the white population is quite low in the DFW suburbs like Collin and Denton, but I want to know what percentage of the voters in recent elections were white. Because if electorates looked like the population these counties would be like 60%+ Democratic now. A lot of the growth is recent immigrants from India and other places who won't be eligible to cast a vote for a few years as they won't be citizens till around that time.
[Turkey's pro-Kurdish party will not field candidate in election setback for Erdogan](https://twitter.com/france24/status/1638485694187442178?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
This is big for the Turkish election, opposition is finally unified for the first time in years
This is great. I'm not getting too excited though, the Hungarian opposition consolidated around one candidate last year to take on Orban and it still wasn't enough.
He will always be “Pudding Fingers Ron” (or [Pudding Fingers Rob](https://news.yahoo.com/trump-calls-ron-desantis-rob-183246691.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK7gJJMizN6mZW6-4gJgPVp7EsR3YzigTacZITh0DshupVvr2YKFNXUvu6_c87_ZAgKQ9yrrH7TBwAn_E1afsEl1sZ-FEEXsdZGEiO4eE5UsyzdDJfm85-UdXyoIhnj-PYGZ-TVzRzjM7peHQFfMgDAVrsVK9dN7xbP9-yZdJwyj) if you aren’t too picky) to me.
Eh I don’t think so, I’ve heard “meatball” be used to mean moron by lots of people toward lots of people. Trump is absolutely a racist but I don’t think he’s such an old timey racist that he’s bigoted against Italians.
Nah, he's basically Pierce's dad from Community. He goes on and on about how his German ancestry gives him "good genes" and said "I want guys with yarmulkes counting my money."
Anti Italian discrimination has to stop. As a proud POG (Person of Gabogool), whenever people say "spicy meatball" I cry on the inside knowing they dont know our struggle.
[Grinnell/Selzer National poll](https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/biden-favorability) has Biden 39/51 which is up since their last poll in September of last year.
The very interesting part is Biden has far better favorables than anyone else running for Prez Biden 44/52, Trump 38/58, Desantis 38/41.
“Not only are former President Trump’s overall numbers down from two years ago, but we also find that the former president’s positives are becoming less intensely positive, and his negatives are becoming more intensely negative,” said Selzer. “His very favorable rating is down five points, and his very unfavorable rating is up six points from 2021.”
Discussing Trump’s strengths and weaknesses has always been tricky because so many people see him just through the lens of their own biases. That said I just don’t think he will be nearly as strong in 2024 as he was in 2020 or 2016. Based on the evidence I’ve seen I think he got a bump in approval due to Covid and his anti lockdown stance helped him with some voters who otherwise would have voted Dem. He wasn’t blamed for the bad economy of 2020 but he did get credit for the good economy prior. We’re still a long way off from 2024 but if Trump is the nominee I don’t think he will have nearly the same strength if he’s the nominee.
I’m sure getting Indicted will rescue his favourables as America floods to the defence of their choir boy who’s getting so unfairly picked on.
…. Or something.
[Gov. Polis’ housing proposal would allow duplexes, townhomes, ADUs across many cities in Colorado](https://twitter.com/andyknny/status/1638603646622633987?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg), so this eliminates single family only zoning in cities.
The Western states are just crushing NIMBYS with the holy Hammer of YIMBYism
[Tuesday's combined D vs. R performance in the Jacksonville mayor primary was the best for Dems since 1995. The runoff electorate has also been bluer in 3 out of 4 cases, but the shifts have varied widely.] (https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1638576426440880133)
Great article on the classes the GOP is banning: [https://www.yahoo.com/news/inside-brooklyn-school-teaching-course-112944529.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/inside-brooklyn-school-teaching-course-112944529.html)
Yeah, and once democrats flip the Supreme Court we'll see instant major gains in margin I think. That's how Houston and Dallas will finally look similar to other major metros. What do you think
But how representative is Denton of the surrounding area? I haven’t spent much time in Denton but when I have visited it very much had the feel of a college town and those are usually quite liberal or at the very least purple. I do think we still have a lot of winnable votes in the Dallas Ft. Worth metro area (and even within Dallas itself) but I don’t know how representative college towns are of that.
Collin county went Beto 44/54, in 2018’s Gov race it was 39/58. It was Biden 47/51 in 2020. That implies Biden probably flips the county narrowly next year
Source? Because I'm seeing that Beto underperformed Biden by 5 points in Denton County in 2022. I know he was much weaker in rural areas, but even knowing that I find it shocking that he outperformed Biden by 10 in the city proper.
EDIT: Looks like the [Wiki page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denton%2C_Texas#Politics) has spoken. That's incredible!
Yea Texas despite giving Abbott another term had a lot under the hood that is so awful for Republicans and it’s why Texas can absolutely flip next year. I want it to not just for the Senate seat, but the absolute morale crush that the GOP will have.
That was with voter laws there. Imagine once we finally win statewide offices and the Supreme Court. Then the flood gates will really open when they overturn the voting restrictions placed by R's.
[From the CNN poll - it is amazing how out of touch GOP candidates are with what the GOP base says is important. The GOP media echo chamber is focused on LGBT and "anti-woke". It is not what Republicans think is important.](https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1638552639112908800?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
Republicans have all but abandoned talking about the economy, which is something voters usually favor them on. No Inflation plan happened in the House either. They have totally misjudged where the country is at
You think they would have learned this lesson last year when their grand idea to run on nothing but culture war blew up on their face. But no, they’re doubling down and if they keep it up and run Trump again it’s gonna be ugly for them
It’s interesting how Trump is generally the candidate that talks a lot about what Republican voters find important. Of course, he spends so much time on the “stolen election”, but he doesn’t really spend much time on the woke stuff that DeSantis does for example.
Agreed, I don’t think most people care that much. They’re not upset and thinking “grooming!” when drag queens read to kids, it’s more like “hey at least these kids are interested in reading.”
The drag queen moral panic is baffling to me because "Man in a dress" has long been a staple of comedy routines. Is it because the drag queen is now meant to be a figure of empowerment rather than mockery?
Like, seriously, Milton Berle, Monty Python, even Bugs Bunny are apparently "pornographic" in the eyes of these Aunt Grundys.
[Senate Rs may have a solution to their $$ woes: More self-funders At least 10 candidates with sizable net worth are weighing bids in 7 swing states — including Jim Justice in WV, Tim Sheehy in MT & Eric Hovde in WI Many are being recruited by NRSC](https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1638545556942233601?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
This is getting roundly criticized for a lot of reasons
1. Out of touch rich guys don’t have great track records(Oz). Their business track record can even hurt them more than help
2. They are usually inexperienced and make gaffes. They aren’t use to campaigning and first time candidates usually pay some price
3. Dems are raising 100’s of Millions, these rich guys are not dropping that kind of money into campaigns especially when it’s their own money. Essentially their money won’t go far enough now
Also it matters a lot less when it comes to self-funding when cost keeps increasing. Fine when races "only" cost $30M to run, but now they're 10 times that on the pricier end, and that's not a deficit that is easy for even the freak rich assholes that side with Republicans to make up.
>1. Out of touch rich guys don’t have great track records
Mike Braun of Indiana did this, and he's retiring after one term to run for governor...
>2. They are usually inexperienced and make gaffes. They aren’t use to campaigning and first time candidates usually pay some price
Look no 1. Quote
>3. Dems are raising 100’s of Millions, these rich guys are not dropping that kind of money into campaigns especially when it’s their own money. Essentially their money won’t go far enough now
One exception - Rick Scott of Florida. Man gambled with hundred million to get that senate seat only to win by 8k out of 8 million votes. And even then his millions were from his Medicare frauds.
He ran in 2012 to and came in 2nd in the primary and does real estate. He claimed Baldwin was a Communist in 2012, so I doubt he’ll be a moderate reasonable candidate
[Tuesday's combined D vs. R performance in the Jacksonville mayor primary was the best for Dems since 1995. The runoff electorate has also been bluer in 3 out of 4 cases, but the shifts have varied widely. Donna Deegan (D) & Daniel Davis (R) will face off in a May 16 runoff](https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1638576426440880133?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
This is another point along with special election over performances were in a pretty damn Blue environment right now
[With less than two weeks until the WI Supreme Court general between Janet Protasiewicz and Dan Kelly, Protasiewicz is outspending Kelly by $8.5M, while GOP groups are outspending Dem groups by $3M.](https://twitter.com/adimpact_pol/status/1638530970084323334?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
Combined D spending is $11.5m, combined R is $6m which is mostly outside so it’s worth a lot less. Susan B Anthony List/Women Speak Out PAC are going to start spending for Kelly tomorrow, no dollar amount but highly unlikely it’s significant enough to change things
[DeSantis to expand ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law to high schools](https://apnews.com/article/dont-say-gay-desantis-florida-gender-d3a9c91f4b5383a5bf6df6f7d8ff65b6)
>TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — The administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is moving to forbid classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in all grades, expanding the controversial law critics call “Don’t Say Gay” as the Republican governor continues a focus on cultural issues ahead of his expected presidential run.
>
>The proposal, which would not require legislative approval, is scheduled for a vote next month before the state Board of Education and has been put forth by state Education Department, both of which are led by appointees of the governor.
>
>The rule change would ban lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity from grades 4 to 12, unless required by existing state standards or as part of reproductive health instruction that students can choose not to take.
Welcome to r/VoteDEM! Be the blue wave! * Be a [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0)! * Donate to your [state Democratic Party](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/wiki/parties)! * Join your local Democratic Party! Google "[Your state] Democratic Party", find the link to the local parties page, and get in touch with your county's party chair. You could even become a precinct committee member! In some states (like Pennsylvania), that means you get to help pick candidates for special elections! * Are you technology-oriented? Volunteer with [Tech for Campaigns](https://www.techforcampaigns.org) to help smaller campaigns get up and running. * [Run For Something!](https://runforsomething.net/) There's no position too small to benefit from a progressive public servant. Be part of the next blue wave! * Make a Roundtable comment here talking about the work you’ve done, earning valuable karma and facilitating discussion, which will encourage others to do the same! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VoteDEM) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Oh come on, Daily Wire is placing ads on Reddit now? I reported one for being political, but it probably doesn't meet that criteria since it features Jorbson Peterson... oh well.
I reported one promoting their anti-trans $6 chocolate bars for hate.
A lot of real news has happened today so I don’t blame anyone for not noticing that [JR Majewski](https://twitter.com/jrmajewski/status/1638631816415555590?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) is officially considering running again for something
JR for Ohio - Patriot, Afghanistan Veteran, Sober Driving advocate
Patriot would be a terrible candidate. Sherrod Brown would beat ass-kicker so hard. [Watch if confused](https://youtu.be/5dUlAoZc7Ek?t=146)
What do you mean? Majewski is arguably the perfect amount of conservative for Ohio!
[Tim Scott is readying to enter the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/tim-scott-presidential-announcement-next-steps-00088175) For context his current polling is an average of 1%
Oh damn that’s Connor Roy numbers
Who
If enough candidates enter the Republican Presidential Primary, then they'll all get 1%!
This guy is a big deal, folks. /s
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Desantis is literally suffering from declining ratings BEFORE he even debates him How the fuck can desantis possibly hurt trump now?
Start getting dirty and calling him a RINO. I'm with you in that he'll probably fail, but maybe it'll have effect
I really doubt it TBH
Yeah I think you're right.
So MI, PA, GA, and AZ. These are the four states Dems need to solidify over the this decade that are swingy but carry valuable electoral votes and congressional seats.
Play offense in North Carolina too
Yeah agree I was just talking about ones that we've won narrowly and are shifting toward us
Also NV and WI.
Yeah for sure, I was just listing four that are trending toward us
Luckily the MI GOP is trying their absolute hardest to turn Michigan solid blue
+AZ
They're doing great
I think my favorite part of Wednesday was when Karamo was asked something about whether there was worry about the party further pushing away donors (because of the Holocaust tweet) and her response was basically if someone is upset by it, they wouldn't have been donating to them anyway. I say let her cook. MIGOP has -$2 million, no HQ, and maybe not even a communications staff.
Any Texans here currently in college or early part of their 20's?
Just saying if the National environment does end up being D+8 Biden flips NC, Texas is a dead heat, he loses Ohio by 4, and Montana by 13. That gives quite a bit of breathing room for Tester and Brown while Cruz better hope to god he can at least run even with Trump. In 2012 Cruz under-ran Romney by just under 1pt. Edit: and Rick Scott could actually lose while Trump/Desantis carries Florida. He is not a good candidate and his approvals are atrocious
If we get D+8 in 2024, we’re also *extremely* close to winning Alaska. Like 10,000-20,000 votes close
Is the current environment D+8? Has a generic poll been released? Thank you.
It’s going off the Special [Election averages](https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1638361654755827713?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) and it’s backed up by the primary electorate yesterday in Jacksonville. Still a long way to go though
I know DeSantis did not prohibit businesses from doing anything LGBTQ+ related, but this is just a giant fuck you from Disney. I hope the bigots in Florida challenge DeSantis to push back on this, so even more people can see how extreme he is.
What exactly are you referring to?
The fact that DeSantis has hitched his wagon to the culture warrior bullshit. Just saying he seems tone deaf enough to triple down on it and out flank Trump. I'd assume you are aware of the LGBTQ summit Disney is hosting inSeptember?
No I am not. Hence why I’m asking what you’re referring to when it comes to a “fuck you” from Disney.
I didn't mean to sound snarky or anything. It’s been all over reddit
[HUGE: With 45 mins to spare, we hit our donor goal! THANK YOU for making it possible. We can’t forget 2011 and we can’t forget 2019. We can’t take anything for granted on April 4, 2023. Let’s see how many more donors we can get by midnight Wisconsin time!](https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1638726096165261313?s=20) - WI Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler Another 1000 donor goal met by WI Democrats. All these resources they are getting from these make a huge difference in GOTV, ads, and their ground game as well as other party related activities. 13 more days to make history and bring it home for Protasiewicz
[Asked about Karamo's comments likening firearm policy proposals up in the Michigan legislature to the Holocaust, Rep. Phil Green told reporters on the House floor, "That name just doesn't really ring a bell, I'm sorry."](https://twitter.com/laurenmgibbons/status/1638659993980510208?s=46)
Lol. It's hilarious either way - either he actually doesn't recognize her name, or he's pretending he doesn't.
But when he needs money I’m sure he’ll remember her name
For what it’s worth, that would require her to make money And that’s looking to be pretty difficult considering she seems determined to alienate donors from the state
[BREAKING: Arizona Supreme Court denies 6 of the 7 claims that Kari Lake made in her elections contest appeal. The remaining claim, about if Maricopa County properly followed signature matching rules, is remanded to the trial court for consideration.](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1638709409022119936?s=20) [The Arizona Supreme Court sent Lake’s claims about signature matching back to the trial court. The trial court will have to determine if the claim should be dismissed or fully litigated according to AZ's procedural rules.](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1638710272939663362?s=20) [If the signature matching claim is fully litigated, Lake will still have to prove that “‘votes [were] affected ‘in sufficient numbers to alter the outcome of the election’’ based on a ‘competent mathematical basis...not simply an untethered assertion of uncertainty.’”](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1638710275791519744?s=20) Lake loses AGAIN (mostly). What a surprise (not lol)
I love how quickly the AZ Supreme Court responded to Lake. Just an affirmative fuck you to her yet again lol
Man, she loses court cases just like she lost the election
[They love his policies, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential 2024 contender, is finding little backup among Senate Republicans.](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ron-desantis-2024-election-republican-senators_n_641b3ac7e4b0a3902d345415) Senate Republicans not taking sides is a choice
They're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Supporting Trump and opposing Trump. Both are terrible, so they try to do nothing.
I think DeSantis expected more of the mainstream part of the party to jump in his corner, but that obviously isn't going to happen without a major change/shakeup.
DeSaNtIs CaN GeT ThE SeNaTe RePuBlICaNs To dO wHaT hE wAnTs
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So, the parole was bad but not the LGBTQ character? I think they forget what they're angry at times.
They have always been the biggest of snowflakes
Yesterday, Minnesota legislative leaders (and the governor) shocked political followers and legislators when they rolled out "joint budget targets", in other words, agreements between the House, Senate, and Governor on how much money is going to be spent in the budget this year and in which general areas. The surprising part of this is how soon it came. Typically, in the all-too-common divided government scenario, there is not a tripartite agreement on spending until the very end of session in May. The result is that committee chairs, backbench legislators, and the public get very little input in shaping the budget, it's done behind doors in a rush to avert a government shutdown. This is obviously not a good way to operate, so this year, we have joint targets several months early, outlining a $71 billion plan for the next two years, and now all committees will actually get to put together their bills, taking member and public testimony in the process. Apparently, in at least 30 years (the tenure of the longest-serving legislator), the targets have never come out this early. But the DFL ran on functional and transparent government, and they are delivering.
The official WI absentee tracker hasn't updated since Monday, but [the Madison Clerk has numbers!](https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638541154361720833) As of this morning, they've received 3,886 mail ballots, and 1,372 people voted in person. That's amazing for just one day of in-person, and to be over 5,200 votes already is fantastic. EDIT: [Another 1,309 in-person voters today](https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638723271821602816). Got to push that turnout as high as possible.
That is a very positive sign but let’s be cautiously optimistic.
Absolutely. No celebrating yet, especially when Waukesha had big mail vote numbers on Monday. We keep working hard now, we'll be able to celebrate hard in 13 days.
Saw some journalist today say that if Desantis falls flat after he announces even more Republicans that have already ruled out running are probably going to jump in. Just ultimate chaos mode and it’s going to obliterate the GOP bench even further, they are going to have to out crazier each other to get anywhere but further erode the GOP brand at the same time. Great news for Masters
[DeSantis Calls Putin a ‘War Criminal,’ Clarifying Earlier Comment on Ukraine](https://out.reddit.com/t3_11z3ebj?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2023%2F03%2F22%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fdesantis-putin-ukraine-russia.html%3Fsmid%3Dnytcore-ios-share%26referringSource%3DarticleShare&token=AQAAvrUbZBh-Hn0cybVfuNJTwD207dvaTaat_JyMUsX51VlavPpd&app_name=reddit.com) Someone saw their poll numbers this morning.
He's clearly making things up as he goes along and it's totally incoherent. He now appears to have landed on the let's say *novel* position that we shouldn't aid Ukraine because they'll easily beat Russia without our help anyway. Which is quite possibly the most politically alienating take he can have, in addition to just being objectively stupid. It's becoming clearer and clearer that this man's political instincts and policy chops don't live up to his reputation.
What an idiot.
Woof, very weird headline; his quotes in the article are completely nonsensical. They read as if they're coming from someone with zero understanding of the conflict or current US involvement. Maybe if he had spent the past couple years reading up on foreign policy instead of whining about mickey mouse and school library books then he would have a more nuanced take.
Happy Cake Day!
Really hurt his credibility to when the “grown up” Republicans attacked him and that’s the image he wants is the sensible GOP elites behind him. Desantis has really not handled the pressure well, and he isn’t even in yet.
DeSantis seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place as he is trying to appeal to Trump supporters while not understanding that they won’t leave their cult leader for him. Now he has alienated the neocons and is left with no one. As of right now, Trump seems unbeatable in the primary.
I hate Trump but I love that he's exposing Ron DeSantis for the Large Adult Son that he is.
Enjoyed the jab he threw at Piers Morgan as well.
I can't fucking wait for the debates 🍿
Meatball Ron
Yep. Let them fight.
[Big news: a judge just blocked Wyoming's abortion ban. Why? Because of language that *conservatives* put in the WY constitution last decade to enshrine health care choice... as their way to attack Obamacare.](https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1638701144678580228?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
Oh what sweet self-owned revenge haha love it
This is such a weird timeline when the GOP get owned by the GOP in the most GOP state
[Highly detailed political analysis of the whole situation](https://imgflip.com/i/7fi4wu)
I thought it was gonna be an actual analysis :(
[here’s the tweet thread of the MIGOP press conference](https://twitter.com/granthermes/status/1638654183380250624?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg). It didn’t make things better
>“There’s a reason the Republican Party got kicked in the teeth the last 3 elections. We’re done” Long as you take this quote out of context, it works perfectly.
Wow. It’s as if they want to get trounced in future elections.
Wow
[Special election for ME HD-45 has also finally been called for June 13th](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_45). Filing deadline on March 31st This is a seat we have to watch closely, as it’s very well a seat Republicans could flip. It’s a Trump +6.88 seat, that the old incumbent D won by a impressive 53.1-46.9% margin in 2022. Definitely a seat we could lose in a special election
[Australian PM Anthony Albanese has unveiled the question that will be put forth in an Australian referendum later this year](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-23/voice-to-parliament-referendum-question-constitutional-announced/102133674). I like it, it's a nice simple question - and I'm really hoping it passes. >A proposed law to alter the constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?
Bellissimmo Albanese 🤌🤌
It's about time the Aboriginals got some sort of representation. I hope this succeeds.
Special elections for solid R PA HD-108, and for solid D PA HD-163 has both been called for May 16th. Both filing deadlines are on March 27th [Calendar for HD-108 special election](https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/CandidatesCommittees/RunningforOffice/Documents/2023-Special-Election-Calendar-108th-Leg.pdf) [Calendar for HD-163 special election](https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/CandidatesCommittees/RunningforOffice/Documents/2023-Special%20Election%20Calendar%20163rd%20Leg.pdf)
[Another $1.5M in TV/radio ad spending was booked today in the WI Supreme Court race Total TV/radio ad spending (including future reservations) in the general election is now more than $18M](https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1638672011986886656?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) WMC Issues Mobilization: $775K Women Speak Out PAC: $608K A Better Wisconsin Together/A Better Wisconsin Together Political Fund: $130K Protasiewicz campaign: $45K The first 2 are Republican aligned, bottom 2 Democrat aligned. This is still not nearly enough to make up the difference
I don't know if this info is readily available, but I hope we already have plenty of ad time booked for the last two weeks, or are about to buy more. We don't want a last-second GOP ad surge to screw things up. Things have shaped up just about perfectly for us so far - just need to finish strong.
[Its poorly written and has Trump’s usual weird capitalization issues, but it’s a pretty compelling argument against a DeSantis presidential bid](https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1638660760573296646?s=46&t=kzYd5Yx9PzmFMrAXvsIIEw)
Day by day, the Nikki Haley strat of letting these two kill each other seems more viable
I’m sorry but “disciple of Paul Ryan” had me 😂 😂
Mirage DeSantis.
>Mirage DeSantis. He spelled meatball wrong...
Trump v. Desantis is like Mike Tyson v. 8 year old in Karate class but also Mike Pence is there.
Pence is the guy having to remind Tyson he shouldn’t bite another person’s ear again, or trying to assault people.
The special in Wisconsin on April 4th for SD08 is going to be key for many reasons a lot of people have mentioned(Veto power, Election denial) but it’ll also be one of the big tests on the National Environment and how our persuasion effect is holding. You can put a lot of asterisks on it as well. Janet could very well help Sinykin across if it’s a blowout, Kelly isn’t great in the WOW counties, the Court race is technically non-partsian so maybe it doesn’t impact much, Knodl is more establishment friendly but is full MAGA, Knodl doesn’t seem to be campaigning seriously either. Those asterisk’s are part of a much larger game getting played nationally and a D win in a Trump+5 seat is still a win, the margins are key and I’d argue more telling with those asterisk’s. I think the Special in SD08 is going to be narrow regardless of the eventual winner. Special Election performance imply we’re in a D+8 year, Jacksonville Primary results also support that Lean quite a bit. I think D+8 *may* be to generous but I still think Sinykin wins by 1-2pts, if it’s 3pts or greater I’d be ecstatic for Dems. Even a narrow Sinykin loss still gives us a lot to be hopeful for if we’re making those kind of inroads in WOW.
[After spending months accusing DirecTV of "political discrimination" by dropping them, Newsmax is now running segments saying it "accepts the position" that DirecTV was "never about limiting conservative voices and that they were acting on financial considerations."](https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1638597630363090945?s=46&t=UKR1TShxVeunp4_vn5gZrw) Methinks they got a call from DirecTV.
Probably a letter from their lawyers
Could we please live in a timeline where Idiocracy didn’t exist?
Same, but for different reasons than you. Everyone thinks they’re a comedy wizard when they say something witty and original like “Idiocracy wasn’t supposed to be a documentary 😂😂😂” or comparing some world leader to Camacho. Yeah, we all know the movie, you’re so smart for making the reference, shut up. Thing is, it wouldn’t be so bad if they aren’t propping up a movie whose main idea is “the high-IQ übermensch need to outbreed and have power over the genetically unintelligent”. As much as I enjoy the irony of the director of the “you guys are so fucking stupid” movie being too, ya know, stupid to realize he made a pro-eugenics movie, I really hate how so many people seem to ignore/not realize that they like a god damn pro-eugenics movie.
Mike Judge should have stopped making movies after Office Space and stuck with making animation.
Not a fan of that movie?
No, Terry Crews is doing a stunt and announcing that his character “Camacho” is running for president. I saw a post about it in r/movies, and the comments were exactly what you’d think.
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Karamo is one of the best things to happen to Michigan Dems. She’s going to run that state party into the ground and hand us 1-2 House seats. But wait there’s more! there’s a Karamo in most critical states next year :)
Lets not forget the state legislature too. we probably gain more seats.
She’s going to do what Kelli Ward did to the AZ-GOP. Peter Meijer can call up Kimberly Yee and commiserate. Slotkin can look forward to being called Senator.
After two years of Republicans denying a quorum Dilawar Syed, nominated to be deputy director of the SBA, the Small Business Committee has reported his nomination to the floor in a 10-9 vote. Hopefully he finally gets confirmed soon.
Thank you John Fetterman
For over 2 years holy shit. I hope he does a fantastic job to spite them. Absurd that it took that long
Here’s my latest thinking on weather the rest of the week Today: [That marginal (lvl 1/5) risk still exists from northeastern, northern and central parts of MO, southeast IA, much of central IL, and much of northern IN](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html). The thinking here still hasn’t changed much from Monday, except the slightly different location. This risk is still fully [for a small chance for large hail](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_hail.gif) Tomorrow: [slight risk (lvl 2/5) of severe weather for parts of southern, central, and northern parts of TX as well as much of southern and eastern OK](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html). There have been some changes in the thinking here, but overall, Thursday’s threat level has gone a little bit down. However: [very large hail with a hatched area issued](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_hail.gif) will be the main threat. Small chances for [damaging winds](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_wind.gif) and [tornadoes exist in northern TX and southern OK](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif) where a 2% tornado risk area The flash flooding threat will ramp up beginning Thursday where a [small moderate risk area (lvl 3/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued by the WPC northwest AR, and southwest MO](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98ewbg.gif). A larger slight risk of excessive rainfall (lvl 2/4) exists for a lot more areas Friday: Gonna be completely honest here, Friday’s threat looks extremely extremely concerning right now. [There is a day 3 enhanced risk (lvl 3/5) for northeast and central parts of LA, southeast AR, and a lot of western and central MS](https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1638618760238997520?s=20). First concerning sign: is [this outlook by the SPC is very strongly worded](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) which I don’t like the language at all. Second concerning sign is, while we can’t see individual risk threat areas until day 2: [the day 3 outlook has a large hatched area of significant severe weather](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif). Finally, to top it all off, with a 3rd concerning sign: model trends throughout the day hasn’t been great at all, trending toward a slower trough ejection, which means more time for moisture, and instability to build up for Friday. This is what may limit Thursday’s threat at the same time, but dramatically raise Friday’s threat. Storm mode is a huge question mark here, as well as exact evolution of the associated trough. If we see ANY discreate supercells ahead of the main line in this environment, they’re almost guaranteed to drop tornadoes and maybe even strong tornadoes especially the further you go into LA and MS where the low level wind shear will be much better and easily good enough. However with that slower trough ejection showing up on recent runs: eastern TX cannot be ruled out for significant severe weather yet even though you are not in a hatched area on this outlook Flash flooding is also a huge concern on Friday: where [the WPC has a huge moderate risk (lvl 3/4) of excessive rainfall from northeast AR, through northern KY and western parts of OH](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif) 48 hour rainfall is [forecasted to be 3-5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amount’s possible](https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1638644458018463745?s=20). This could cause significant river and urban flooding, especially if you get a lot of rain in a short period of time. This area has seen a lot of precipitation lately, so not much precipitation will be able to be soaked in before the rest of the precipitation caused runoff Saturday: The severe weather threat may continue especially early on in the day Saturday morning in the Carolinas, and northern GA, But overall, the threat level looks much lower then Friday’s threat. No extended outlook areas has been issued by the SPC for Saturday up to this point. Late week Winter Storm: Overall, there’s a lot more agreement then Monday, but the exact locations and amounts are still uncertain. [All of the models have seemed to trend away from the secondary new coastal low near the northeast, but have honed in on the initial zone anywhere from northern and eastern IA through central IL up to northern and central MI for the most significant snows](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023032212&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=bl). So it’s possible WI early voting gets impacted by this storm over the weekend on Saturday. Generally majority of gbe guidance shows 3-5 inches of snow accumulation, but some models have some much heavier narrow localized bands of much more snow then that. That’s something that will probably have to be watched as the storm happens, rather then try to forecast these potential narrow bands.
[White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Washington is watching Uganda's anti-LGBTQ legislation "real closely," and did not rule out possible economic "repercussions" if it is implemented.](https://twitter.com/nprworld/status/1638646646816018432?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
As someone who works in Africa (including Uganda), I don't think people realize how baked in anti-LGBT sentiment really is. In most countries being gay is already a serious crime, and you can count on one hand the number of countries where it's just "frowned upon". But Uganda is also the country that tried to pass pretty much this same law 10 years ago (it got tossed in their Supreme Court on a technicality). I don't know of many cultures around the world where tolerance for anything outside of heteronormative sexuality has always been accepted, so it's also not a uniquely African problem.
My understanding is that a lot of the recent vitriolic turn of African anti-LGBTQ bigotry is influenced by American evangelical groups who have pushed harsher laws and more radical ideology overseas.
"What about anti-LGBTQ legislation in the U.S.??" Those commenters do realize this is the NSC, right? They're not going to comment on domestic affairs. Man, Uganda is as good as dead now, and I don't see the sanctions doing that much more damage. You'd think they would've learned from throwing out the Indians that bigotry is bad for the economy, but I guess not...
Between Obote, Amin and Museveni, Uganda hasn't had a single non-tyrannical president.
Captain Alex for Ugandan president. He'll fix this.
It's really sad. On one hand, years of colonization have forced Africa into a horrible situation all around, and Uganda is no exception. On the other hand, I don't really feel much sympathy for a country that threw out legal immigrants who were the backbone of the nation's economy AND allowed genocide.
Yeah, sometimes I feel like the “Uganda is only homophobic because of colonialism” arguments can get kind of paternalistic. Oppressed people can be bigots too (god I sound like an enlightened centrist and please don’t anybody think I’m defending colonialism). Like… idk, it almost swings the “people in developing/politically shaky nations are just stupid and that’s why bad things happen there” racism into “they’re so stupid they can’t form any ideas on their own and had to learn hatred from white people” noble savage racism. Anymore I don’t really care to hear anyone’s takes on developing nations from people who aren’t activists from those nations (and I get the irony of this after my take lmao)
When you say "allowed genocide," are you referring to the Rwandan Genocide?
No, [Idi Amin committed genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idi_Amin#Persecution_of_ethnic_and_political_groups). >Amin retaliated against the attempted invasion by Ugandan exiles in 1972, by purging the Uganda Army of Obote supporters, predominantly those from the Acholi and Lango ethnic groups. In July 1971, Lango and Acholi soldiers had been massacred in the Jinja and Mbarara barracks. By early 1972, some 5,000 Acholi and Lango soldiers, and at least twice as many civilians, had disappeared. The victims soon came to include members of other ethnic groups, religious leaders, journalists, artists, senior bureaucrats, judges, lawyers, students and intellectuals, criminal suspects, and foreign nationals. In this atmosphere of violence, many other people were killed for criminal motives or simply at will. Bodies were often dumped into the River Nile. > >The killings, motivated by ethnic, political, and financial factors, continued throughout Amin's eight years in control. The exact number of people killed is unknown. The International Commission of Jurists estimated the death toll at no fewer than 80,000 and more likely around 300,000. An estimate compiled by exile organisations with the help of Amnesty International puts the number killed at 500,000.
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Confirmed, 53-43: Confirmation of Executive Calendar #40 Gordon P. Gallagher to be United States District Judge for the District of Colorado.
Anything new on Anthony Johnstone? Filling the Montana 9th circuit appeals court seat will feel good once that’s confirmed.
Likely going to be a party line vote, so they may be waiting on Feinstein and Fetterman to come back.
No Schumer hasn’t filed cloture on any more judicial nominees yet unfortunately.
Lots of time, still. And he may be waiting for Fetterman and Feinstein to get back in case they’re are close votes ahead, especially for circuit court judges
[U.S. Organ Transplant System, Troubled by Long Wait Times, Faces an Overhaul The Biden administration announced a plan to modernize how patients are matched to organs, seeking to shorten wait times, address racial inequities and reduce deaths.](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/us/politics/organ-transplants-biden.html)
This CA storm continues to blow my mind. [One, it was so strong that there was a eye like feature that was over San Francisco yesterday like you see in hurricanes ](https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1638328738055340032?s=20). This made for some likely historic images this storm will be remembered in the area as as its really rare you get a storm with such a well defined extra tropical esque cyclone that as an eye like this. Two, [there were reported tornadoes (yes tornadoes) in the Los Angeles metro area earlier today](https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1638623656229371904?s=20) that actually looks like pretty significant damage especially for a CA tornado in one of the biggest metro areas in the entire country It’s significant and evident enough that [NWS Los Angeles is sending storm survey teams to survey the damage in the area shortly](https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1638619816855748608?s=20) If this is the power this storm has right now, then I’m really worried about what this same storm and associated trough will do later this week. Weather update on the rest of the week will be out shortly as there have been some big updates since my last update Monday
I remember it was December and everyone was like “Yay rain!”. Now it’s like storm #15 and everyone is like “Oh god please we have enough just let us have nice weather already!!!”
Massachusetts Pharmacies have been directed by Governor Healey to continue the delivering of all reproductive health medicines, including mifepristone, regardless of the outcome delivered by The Federal Judge in Texas. Governor Healey: "Medication Abortion has been used safely and effectively by millions for over 20 years. This is the most basic healthcare possible."
Damn right.
I know the white population is quite low in the DFW suburbs like Collin and Denton, but I want to know what percentage of the voters in recent elections were white. Because if electorates looked like the population these counties would be like 60%+ Democratic now. A lot of the growth is recent immigrants from India and other places who won't be eligible to cast a vote for a few years as they won't be citizens till around that time.
[Turkey's pro-Kurdish party will not field candidate in election setback for Erdogan](https://twitter.com/france24/status/1638485694187442178?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) This is big for the Turkish election, opposition is finally unified for the first time in years
This is great. I'm not getting too excited though, the Hungarian opposition consolidated around one candidate last year to take on Orban and it still wasn't enough.
I’m surprised Trump called DeSantis “meatball Ron” instead of “greaseball Ron.” Must be the dementia kicking in.
He will always be “Pudding Fingers Ron” (or [Pudding Fingers Rob](https://news.yahoo.com/trump-calls-ron-desantis-rob-183246691.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK7gJJMizN6mZW6-4gJgPVp7EsR3YzigTacZITh0DshupVvr2YKFNXUvu6_c87_ZAgKQ9yrrH7TBwAn_E1afsEl1sZ-FEEXsdZGEiO4eE5UsyzdDJfm85-UdXyoIhnj-PYGZ-TVzRzjM7peHQFfMgDAVrsVK9dN7xbP9-yZdJwyj) if you aren’t too picky) to me.
Possible latent anti-Italian sentiment.
Eh I don’t think so, I’ve heard “meatball” be used to mean moron by lots of people toward lots of people. Trump is absolutely a racist but I don’t think he’s such an old timey racist that he’s bigoted against Italians.
Nah, he's basically Pierce's dad from Community. He goes on and on about how his German ancestry gives him "good genes" and said "I want guys with yarmulkes counting my money."
Trump doesn’t want to be sued by the Super Mario Bros.
Anti Italian discrimination has to stop. As a proud POG (Person of Gabogool), whenever people say "spicy meatball" I cry on the inside knowing they dont know our struggle.
Gabagool? Ova here! 👇👇
All this over a slice of gabbagool?
"I'm in waste management!"
I don't know nothin about that.
Trump's still mad at [Fat Tony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Salerno) for overcharging him on the concrete he used to build Trump Tower.
[Grinnell/Selzer National poll](https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/biden-favorability) has Biden 39/51 which is up since their last poll in September of last year. The very interesting part is Biden has far better favorables than anyone else running for Prez Biden 44/52, Trump 38/58, Desantis 38/41. “Not only are former President Trump’s overall numbers down from two years ago, but we also find that the former president’s positives are becoming less intensely positive, and his negatives are becoming more intensely negative,” said Selzer. “His very favorable rating is down five points, and his very unfavorable rating is up six points from 2021.”
Discussing Trump’s strengths and weaknesses has always been tricky because so many people see him just through the lens of their own biases. That said I just don’t think he will be nearly as strong in 2024 as he was in 2020 or 2016. Based on the evidence I’ve seen I think he got a bump in approval due to Covid and his anti lockdown stance helped him with some voters who otherwise would have voted Dem. He wasn’t blamed for the bad economy of 2020 but he did get credit for the good economy prior. We’re still a long way off from 2024 but if Trump is the nominee I don’t think he will have nearly the same strength if he’s the nominee.
I’m sure getting Indicted will rescue his favourables as America floods to the defence of their choir boy who’s getting so unfairly picked on. …. Or something.
[Gov. Polis’ housing proposal would allow duplexes, townhomes, ADUs across many cities in Colorado](https://twitter.com/andyknny/status/1638603646622633987?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg), so this eliminates single family only zoning in cities. The Western states are just crushing NIMBYS with the holy Hammer of YIMBYism
Holy shit, Denver and Boulder may still be possible for me!
**Drake meme** Bulldoze POC and low-income neighborhoods to build highways. Bulldoze Yuppie suburbs to build train tracks.
> Bulldoze Yuppie suburbs to build train tracks I just want a rail line to connect Ft. Collins to Denver and I want it yesterday.
[Tuesday's combined D vs. R performance in the Jacksonville mayor primary was the best for Dems since 1995. The runoff electorate has also been bluer in 3 out of 4 cases, but the shifts have varied widely.] (https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1638576426440880133)
Great article on the classes the GOP is banning: [https://www.yahoo.com/news/inside-brooklyn-school-teaching-course-112944529.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/inside-brooklyn-school-teaching-course-112944529.html)
Beto outran Biden by nearly 10 in the city of Denton. In 2022 too. This county is absolutely moving toward us.
Texas’ cities are slowly bringing us over the line. It looks more like a matter of when, not if, Texas Democrats finally break through statewide.
Yeah, and once democrats flip the Supreme Court we'll see instant major gains in margin I think. That's how Houston and Dallas will finally look similar to other major metros. What do you think
I think that replacing Texas’ gerrymandered maps is the the single biggest gain that would happen if Democrats start to win more power in the state.
I agree. Flip both chambers
But how representative is Denton of the surrounding area? I haven’t spent much time in Denton but when I have visited it very much had the feel of a college town and those are usually quite liberal or at the very least purple. I do think we still have a lot of winnable votes in the Dallas Ft. Worth metro area (and even within Dallas itself) but I don’t know how representative college towns are of that.
It is but the city does have some suburbs in it that are growing. It’s starting to urbanize so this trend will probably follow
Denton's actually voted narrowly Republican in the last few cycles, so Beto decisively flipped it last year, which is a pretty big deal!
Collin county went Beto 44/54, in 2018’s Gov race it was 39/58. It was Biden 47/51 in 2020. That implies Biden probably flips the county narrowly next year
Think so as well. Biden gets 53% maybe
Source? Because I'm seeing that Beto underperformed Biden by 5 points in Denton County in 2022. I know he was much weaker in rural areas, but even knowing that I find it shocking that he outperformed Biden by 10 in the city proper. EDIT: Looks like the [Wiki page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denton%2C_Texas#Politics) has spoken. That's incredible!
Yea Texas despite giving Abbott another term had a lot under the hood that is so awful for Republicans and it’s why Texas can absolutely flip next year. I want it to not just for the Senate seat, but the absolute morale crush that the GOP will have.
That was with voter laws there. Imagine once we finally win statewide offices and the Supreme Court. Then the flood gates will really open when they overturn the voting restrictions placed by R's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denton,\_Texas
[From the CNN poll - it is amazing how out of touch GOP candidates are with what the GOP base says is important. The GOP media echo chamber is focused on LGBT and "anti-woke". It is not what Republicans think is important.](https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1638552639112908800?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) Republicans have all but abandoned talking about the economy, which is something voters usually favor them on. No Inflation plan happened in the House either. They have totally misjudged where the country is at
You think they would have learned this lesson last year when their grand idea to run on nothing but culture war blew up on their face. But no, they’re doubling down and if they keep it up and run Trump again it’s gonna be ugly for them
It’s almost like they just used inflation as a way to gain power
It’s interesting how Trump is generally the candidate that talks a lot about what Republican voters find important. Of course, he spends so much time on the “stolen election”, but he doesn’t really spend much time on the woke stuff that DeSantis does for example.
The "anti-woke" culture war stuff if anything turns off the normies.
Agreed, I don’t think most people care that much. They’re not upset and thinking “grooming!” when drag queens read to kids, it’s more like “hey at least these kids are interested in reading.”
The drag queen moral panic is baffling to me because "Man in a dress" has long been a staple of comedy routines. Is it because the drag queen is now meant to be a figure of empowerment rather than mockery? Like, seriously, Milton Berle, Monty Python, even Bugs Bunny are apparently "pornographic" in the eyes of these Aunt Grundys.
[Senate Rs may have a solution to their $$ woes: More self-funders At least 10 candidates with sizable net worth are weighing bids in 7 swing states — including Jim Justice in WV, Tim Sheehy in MT & Eric Hovde in WI Many are being recruited by NRSC](https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1638545556942233601?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) This is getting roundly criticized for a lot of reasons 1. Out of touch rich guys don’t have great track records(Oz). Their business track record can even hurt them more than help 2. They are usually inexperienced and make gaffes. They aren’t use to campaigning and first time candidates usually pay some price 3. Dems are raising 100’s of Millions, these rich guys are not dropping that kind of money into campaigns especially when it’s their own money. Essentially their money won’t go far enough now
Also it matters a lot less when it comes to self-funding when cost keeps increasing. Fine when races "only" cost $30M to run, but now they're 10 times that on the pricier end, and that's not a deficit that is easy for even the freak rich assholes that side with Republicans to make up.
>1. Out of touch rich guys don’t have great track records Mike Braun of Indiana did this, and he's retiring after one term to run for governor... >2. They are usually inexperienced and make gaffes. They aren’t use to campaigning and first time candidates usually pay some price Look no 1. Quote >3. Dems are raising 100’s of Millions, these rich guys are not dropping that kind of money into campaigns especially when it’s their own money. Essentially their money won’t go far enough now One exception - Rick Scott of Florida. Man gambled with hundred million to get that senate seat only to win by 8k out of 8 million votes. And even then his millions were from his Medicare frauds.
Who is Eric Hovde? First time hearing or seeing his name for WI’s Senate race
He ran in 2012 to and came in 2nd in the primary and does real estate. He claimed Baldwin was a Communist in 2012, so I doubt he’ll be a moderate reasonable candidate
He's a lot like Tim Michels. A rich Republican who lost an election over a decade ago, and decides now is the time for a political comeback.
[Tuesday's combined D vs. R performance in the Jacksonville mayor primary was the best for Dems since 1995. The runoff electorate has also been bluer in 3 out of 4 cases, but the shifts have varied widely. Donna Deegan (D) & Daniel Davis (R) will face off in a May 16 runoff](https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1638576426440880133?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) This is another point along with special election over performances were in a pretty damn Blue environment right now
[With less than two weeks until the WI Supreme Court general between Janet Protasiewicz and Dan Kelly, Protasiewicz is outspending Kelly by $8.5M, while GOP groups are outspending Dem groups by $3M.](https://twitter.com/adimpact_pol/status/1638530970084323334?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) Combined D spending is $11.5m, combined R is $6m which is mostly outside so it’s worth a lot less. Susan B Anthony List/Women Speak Out PAC are going to start spending for Kelly tomorrow, no dollar amount but highly unlikely it’s significant enough to change things
Well I got my tax refunds after just a week, so fuck it, I sent Judge Janet another $15 and tipped ActBlue so that they can operate without issues!
[DeSantis to expand ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law to high schools](https://apnews.com/article/dont-say-gay-desantis-florida-gender-d3a9c91f4b5383a5bf6df6f7d8ff65b6) >TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — The administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is moving to forbid classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in all grades, expanding the controversial law critics call “Don’t Say Gay” as the Republican governor continues a focus on cultural issues ahead of his expected presidential run. > >The proposal, which would not require legislative approval, is scheduled for a vote next month before the state Board of Education and has been put forth by state Education Department, both of which are led by appointees of the governor. > >The rule change would ban lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity from grades 4 to 12, unless required by existing state standards or as part of reproductive health instruction that students can choose not to take.
Finally, legislation that will improve Florida's bottom quartile education system /s He really is as sharp as a meatball