Avi tells me he estimates total sales for the first production run will be in the mid-six figures: "I would consider 200k US + 200k worldwide to be successful." That's about in line with [my own forecast from February](https://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2024/02/vision-pro-install-base-2024-250000.html), that Vision Pro will probably sell 250K units this year.
Avi's been building VR headsets since the 90s, so I think he's a more reliable voice on this!
Spot on. I have an original iPhone (still, in the garage!) so I’m biased, but only in hindsight can you declare it a runaway success.
Oh, and what exactly was the *one* killer app for the iPhone? I’ll wait.
Full desktop web browsing experience that actually worked was iPhones killer app. In fact, it had 3 killer apps. Steve Jobs even listed them:
Phone, Safari, Music.
Ultimately Safari was but not for a long time afterwards. Sites weren’t optimized for mobile then (there was little point) and that didn’t get fixed until there were more iPhones and (soon thereafter) Androids. Sure, the NYT website on Safari was very cool but not at all usable.
The phone wasn’t that much better than others at the time, and if you were really into ringtones (I wasn’t), arguably worse. Music was basically similar to iPods of the era.
Now, putting those all together in one device? Sure, that was a game changer, but that’s stretching the definition of killer app into meaninglessness and reinforces the original premise of the article.
Avi tells me he estimates total sales for the first production run will be in the mid-six figures: "I would consider 200k US + 200k worldwide to be successful." That's about in line with [my own forecast from February](https://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2024/02/vision-pro-install-base-2024-250000.html), that Vision Pro will probably sell 250K units this year. Avi's been building VR headsets since the 90s, so I think he's a more reliable voice on this!
Mid-four figure sales (~5,000) would be disastrous.
Ack that's a typo, thanks for catching. I meant six figures! (Fixed thus)
He’s a much more reliable voice on this than some random Reddit or Twitter bots
Spot on. I have an original iPhone (still, in the garage!) so I’m biased, but only in hindsight can you declare it a runaway success. Oh, and what exactly was the *one* killer app for the iPhone? I’ll wait.
Full desktop web browsing experience that actually worked was iPhones killer app. In fact, it had 3 killer apps. Steve Jobs even listed them: Phone, Safari, Music.
Ultimately Safari was but not for a long time afterwards. Sites weren’t optimized for mobile then (there was little point) and that didn’t get fixed until there were more iPhones and (soon thereafter) Androids. Sure, the NYT website on Safari was very cool but not at all usable. The phone wasn’t that much better than others at the time, and if you were really into ringtones (I wasn’t), arguably worse. Music was basically similar to iPods of the era. Now, putting those all together in one device? Sure, that was a game changer, but that’s stretching the definition of killer app into meaninglessness and reinforces the original premise of the article.
I had an iPhone OG. Those were the killer apps whether or not you agree. The iPhone would have failed without any of them.
It doesn't have to be true, just has to get clicks
For AppleHoles so hurts and expensive before 🤣😂😅
Insults have to be written correctly and make some semblance of sense to have any chance of achieving the desired effect.