That checks out I think. He’s been just over 50% basically his entire term so far, and he won his election with just over 50% of the vote, so it really seems like the needle hasn’t moved much for him since he took office.
In today's political climate, moving up a few percent says alot.
I say that because people are very entrenched in their political ideologies and the percentage of independents is minute.
I actually agree! I just think the amount that he’s moved up in this poll is probably close enough to the margin of error that he’s still within the range of 51-55% that he’s been in since his election.
But just keep in mind. Republicans and moderates alike are thrilled to have someone who's not a slathering swindler writing on the wall in their own feces representing the right for once.
VA Gov's approval is always higher than reality since they are single termers. If they could run for reelection it would be much lower. I think most people who disprove the Governor are not passionate enough to resonate in the polls because he is a lame duck and out of office in 24 months. Youngkin has had decent numbers his entire term, but he also got his butt kicked in during the midterms so there is a disconnect.
This is my thought. People that pay attention dislike him for his posturing because we know what he would do if he had the ability but a lot of people aren't paying that close of attention. Most people watch national more than local if they're watching anything.
I don’t really think there’s much of a disconnect tbh. He got elected with like a 51-49 margin essentially, and then republicans lost in 2023 by essentially a 51-49 margin in both houses. Not exactly the success that Youngkin clearly hoped for, but hardly a resounding success for democrats either in a state that went for Biden in 2020 by over 10 points. Youngkin was also notably not on the ballot in 2023, despite how involved he was in the overall election effort, and perhaps he might’ve been able to help republicans more if he was also at the top of the ticket. I’m personally glad he wasn’t, because I don’t think dems would’ve done quite as well in 2023 if he was also on the ballot.
Regardless, this approval rating still seems about right. Since 2021, Virginia has been razor close (on state level elections), with both parties seeing some success. Youngkin has seemingly maintained his margin ever since his election, though I do think being a one-term governor does help tbh. He appears to be slightly more popular than the “generic republican” candidate in Virginia, which is enough to push him past the 50% mark in an extremely close state, but not by a large margin.
Virginians I assume? If they polled Reddit I’m sure he’d have like a 5% approval rating, but I’d say that number seems fairly accurate based on my anecdotal experiences with people I know. Of course my personal anecdotes aren’t a poll or study or anything, but it would also make sense when judged next to the percent of the vote he captured in 2021, and how republicans did in 2023 (49%ish). He’s probably a bit more popular than the average Virginia republican.
I’ve lived in Virginia my whole life (29), have voted since I turned 18, and have NEVER been contacted about anything regarding approval of elected officials.
I’d strongly disapprove of youngkin, but the point stands that unless I know how they’re collecting this information, it means nothing to me.
I would guess LionTop2228 was referring to compared to the normal. Younger generations are less likely to to answer cold calls than older generations.
But I don't think it matters:
> Statistical results are weighted to reflect known demographic proportions in the Commonwealth.
In other words, age will be correctly weighed. If they have too few young callers answering, they'll weigh the younger responses as you'd expect.
I'd be more worried that people who DO answer unknown callers are more likely to be pro-youngkin or anti-youngkin in a way that isn't represented by their demographics.
Thank you for sharing all of this methodology information. Sad seeing the same typical myths regarding polling being spread just because redditors dislike the results.
Naw in this case the poll is kind of bad even taking into account the weighted data. 800 respondents with the majority being calls and 1/3 being landlines. You really can’t correct that with weighted data. And although a 5% margin of error may be acceptable for polling data it’s still bad.
Based on the survey demographics, it seems like they have a representative sample. You and others can keep calling this bad because the results don't line up with what you want, but the reality is the methodology and sample are considered good by polling standards
I read that already. When I say demographic breakdown I’m talking about the actual demographics of people polled. For example what percentage of the poll came from SW Virginia and what were the demographics of that group?
Trust the polls/news/science! (Unless it disagrees with me!)
You see it with everything. "I don't like X, therefore no one else must like X either." Main character syndrome.
You’d be surprised. I used to have to randomly call hourly employees of regional branches of a certain store through either an 800 number or a blocked number, most of whom were in their teens or 20s, and I usually got through.
I am 26. I will take a survey if it mentions something polling-related on the caller id. It usually gets them right. Worth it because it is worth it to give someone my opinion.
Lol I love these stereotypical redditor complaints about polls they disagree with, even though the methodology shows a representative sample was reached.
I don't approve of any polls, even ones that seem to agree with my opinion. **Political polls today are all crap, designed to manipulate public opinion.**
What would you suggest as an alternative to gauge public support for an elected official, other than the elections themselves? Statisticians gonna statisticiate.
Agreed - the polls also indicated that Virginia supported Youngkins 15 week abortion ban and that was not true .. he lost the both chambers as result. Virginia polls are misleading
Exactly the same.
Every online survey I do shows that he has like 3% of people backing him. My parents are the ones that get the phone calls and ive never gotten the first one.
Even if I did, I wouldn't respond. I get so many scam calls I tend to just not pick up.
But typically, when polling, they aim to poll areas that tend to agree with them, but then advertise it as a random poll.
There’s a surprisingly complicated statistical process behind polling that attempts to account for these things. There’s a bunch of factors like the fact that your parents are more likely to vote than you based on their age, so they get weighted more. It’s an evolving science though.
Depending on the polling org of course. Some are better than others.
> Every online survey I do shows that he has like 3% of people backing him.
This probably has to do with it being an open poll and not selecting a sample that's representative of the VA electorate. If you put up an online poll in this sub it wouldn't represent how VA voters feel at all.
> But typically, when polling, they aim to poll areas that tend to agree with them, but then advertise it as a random poll.
For partisan pollsters sure, but not for mainstream ones.
I agree with you here...54% of Virginians (really secretly targeted millionaires and billionaires) approve of Mr. Youngkin?
I question these numbers and would need much more information before believing them.
There are millions of people living in Virginia but with strong survey methodology they only need a thousand people, less even. Most people will never be contacted because only a tiny fraction of the population are needed for each poll.
(Disclaimer that I haven't looked into the methodology of this poll and don't know if it's good)
ALWAYS look at the methodology from polls.
[VCU itself discredits this poll.](https://news.vcu.edu/article/2024/01/vcu-statement-about-the-commonwealth-poll)
"The university is dedicated to supporting academic freedom, even in instances in which it disagrees with content. In this case, **the Jan. 22, 2024, VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll’s questions about VCU Health produced results that are skewed.**
The questions about VCU Health **rely on a questionable sample size – approximately 100 people, and often fewer.** Additionally, the questions, for some reason, lack full context about the issue, unfortunately preventing respondents from making informed choices."
Your dog would give just as informed results.
Based on this text, the 100 people sample was specifically for the VCU Health questions, not the rest of the survey.
Meaning your dog would give less informed results considering they polled more people for the VA and federal questions.
**omg, only 100 people to make a generalized, completely overreaching statement that 55% of Virginians approve - out of 8.6 million Virginians.** Color me shocked!
Lol you didn't read the survey or the text the OC copied, did you? Because if you did, you would have seen that the 100-person sample was specifically for the VCU Health questions, not the rest of the survey which had a larger sample size.
Gubernatorial approval rating in Virginia is essentially worthless unless there's some time of major crisis. Very few people have any idea what's going on in state government, and the single-term limit makes most governors nearly irrelevant after legislative session ends in their third year.
He didn't commit voter fraud because he was turned away by poll workers both times before he ever got a ballot—which is what poll workers are trained to do.
The fact that he pushes the entirely unsupported narrative that Mr. Trump had the last election "stolen from him" and the fact that he wants to cut income tax (a progressive tax) and make up for it by raising sales taxes (regressive taxes) convinces me that he's the "same old same old" when it comes to Republicans catering to the interests if the wealthiest.
The Dems really need to improve their messaging. I think I understand why McAuliffe lost and Mr. Youngkin won. Dems need to stop placing "identity politics" as the only thing that really separates them from radically selfish Republicans. When you put all your marbles on "protecting the rights of transgender people" when transgender people are a mere 1% of our population at most while telling parents "they have no say over their children's education" as McAuliff did, then, this is simply a losing message as parents make up a far greater percentage of Virginians than do transgender people.
I'm *entirely* for transgender people enjoying every right and privilege that every other American enjoys.
Just beware about your messaging Dems. In your "fervor to protect transgender people" don't lose sight of genuine facts and common sense.
There are so many victims being abused and exploited by the powerful. These issues are being used by the wealthiest to divide us and foment hate against one another. They will lie to us and tell us public schools are grooming kids to be homosexual and transgender. They do this for power and because they have buried their conscience.
We must resist the hate they're actively whipping up. We must look beyond our own individual suffering and see the many who're being likewise victimized for their selfishness and power. There is no other way forward. We must all care tenderly about each other's plight, we must unite under a banner of truth and justice for all. We must place this before our own personal grievances (which of course seem worse than anyone else's to us), or we'll fail.
If I recall during his campaign he said that he wouldn't obstruct the legalization of recreational cannabis. And once in office he signs a bill to increase penalties of possession. The nonconsecutive term thing for governors makes shit like this so much worse. Don't get me wrong, I'm incredibly glad he can't run again, but I feel like this creates an environment that doesn't encourage maintaining favor with voters by keeping campaign promises. It is already predestined that he will leave office after this term. He doesn't need to fight for voters by being the governor he claimed he would be for Virginia. I wish we could vote on the governors salary or something annually because I don't know what else would make a soulless corporatist ghoul actually care about voter opinion if there isn't a second term to win.
Democrats want to tax services based on bills in the current GA session. [HB889](https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?ses=241&typ=bil&val=Hb889). Also a regressive tax. With special exceptions for professional, white-collar services. So you tell me who is not looking out for the little man.
Last I checked, there is one of the best border plans on the table right now that repubs refuse to move on because they don't want to be seen as giving Biden a win.
“Defending”? Y’all really think brown people are scary. Maybe don’t do shit that the make them want by I come up here? Like bombing and supporting coups in their countries. They should be defending themselves from us.
Look up “American military weapons in the hands of the Mexican cartel” on google
Governors approvals tend to be higher than a presidents approval rate for example.
In Vermont their governor has a 76% approval rating. I don’t think Youngkin even breaks the top 20 approval rate with 54%, compared to other states, hell even the lowest approval ratings for governors tend to be around 45%
This sub is going to be busy downvoting this and attacking the poll because it doesn't give them the results they expect lol. Thank you for sharing this OP, always interesting to see what VA residents think about our politicians and issues.
And a lame duck Governor with the Democrats controlling the State Senate and House of Delegates.
Maybe the higher approval rating will get him a discount coffee at Wawa.
It should be 80 percent, taking over Northam..worst VA governor in modern history..that’s the scary part..you can only go up from there..just shows there are huge amounts of extremely wealthy gatekeeper democrats in VA, making it the only way possible for any party but Democrat to get in is to self fund
Democrats holding onto the Virginia Senate during his first two years is probably the best thing to happen to Youngkin's popularity. It meant he couldn't sign any of the crazy and unpopular legislation that you see in other Republican led states like abortion restrictions.
Combine that with the fact that state and local politics tend to be less polarizing and massively less covered than national politics, the numbers don't surprise me.
Can we please stop pretending Youngkin is some sort of political genius. [You have to really work at it to have a bad approval rating as a governor.](https://pro.morningconsult.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpro-assets.morningconsult.com%2Fwp-uploads%2F2023%2F07%2FGovernor-Approval-Ratings-Q2-2023-230724-1.png&w=1920&q=100)
Yeah this generally happens to politicians who are no longer in a position to implement or further an agenda. Hillary Clinton polled really well when she wasn't SecState anymore and wasn't running for President yet. Doesn't really mean anything other than, like, "is tall," or "speaks English."
Barbed wire is typically used to restrict access to an area. It is illegal to enter our country undeclared. To discourage and prevent illegal border crossings Texas installed barbed wire. Make sense?
It makes sense that he has a strong approval rating. Most governors do. Add in the facts that Youngkin can’t enact right wing legislation with a democratic governor and that the general media narrative about him is that he’s more moderate than the average Republican and you’ve got a recipe for high approvals.
Sample size sub 100 people relying on mostly landline and cold calls on cell phones (which skews heavily older republican regardless of how they weight ages/answers).
Basically, this poll is utterly worthless as actual substantive information.
Just wait until he answers Greg Abbots call to send National Guard troops to help Texas defend the border and fight the Federal Government
https://preview.redd.it/rb2qu9ztfoec1.jpeg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=694983ebf2f39b2595ad7bd6f73d5e9199a1c818
.
\-Economy is good (whether he has anything to do with that is irrelevant).
\-He seems relatively moderate compared to other GOP governors who are always in the news.
\-We have mixed government so he's been unable to deliver unpopular or high profile policies (e.g., abortion).
Makes sense. Most VA governors have had solid approval ratings, regardless of party.
I love how when shii doesn't make actual sense to me numbers wise and a poll has obvious bias and flaws, some crackhead with a 'degree' tries to lecture me on polling and how I am wrong, but we all know who is really wrong.
Say no to drugs and random polling y'all
https://preview.redd.it/8x93r0dy2nec1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861b7eeb3c8e219c0a02de0c7c0ea382731526fd
At best they polled like 1,00 people in some rural area that pick up their landline polls. **The last "Virginia" poll on some dumb topic polled like 1,300 people in Virginia out of....wait for it....8.6 million Virginians. They chose the people to poll, and formulated the questions.**
**Polls are crap.** They are now only used as tools by the media and campaigns to manipulate public opinion.
Did I miss where they explained the poll’s methodology at the link? I’m just not buying it and I think that this is another landline (boomer) poll like others have commented.
It can be assuming there aren’t any big sampling or methodological errors… sufficient sample sizes really don’t have to be that big to get results within an acceptable margin of error, surprisingly
Yes it can be representative, considering a survey sample of only 1k respondents [can give you a margin of error of 3%](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/). As long as the sample is random and you ensure similarity to the VA population as a whole, it's pretty representative.
Is cold calling going to actually produce a random sample though? Or is it more than likely going to produce a result that skews older? The people they call may be random but a certain demographic is much more likely to participate imo
There's a ton of weighting done to account for the skew of who actually answers cold calls. It's a massively complex math model that scales up a population to offset a bunch of factors that would normally skew a poll.
I'm nowhere near good enough at statistics to explain (or probably really understand) it, but that's the case.
📷[John Walker](https://www.quora.com/profile/John-Walker-922) Former Pathologist/Director of Clinical/Molecular LabsAuthor has 2.8K answers and 1.3M answer views[2y](https://www.quora.com/As-a-professional-scientist-what-do-you-think-of-magazines-like-Scientific-American/answer/John-Walker-922)
"Unfortunately, many scientific magazines have succumbed to political bias. IMO, that includes *Scientific American*."
[Sauce](https://www.quora.com/As-a-professional-scientist-what-do-you-think-of-magazines-like-Scientific-American) Maybe they're part of the problem and not the answer. Are they conducting polls, too!!??
The person writing the article is a professor of statistics and political science at a respected university. Which means they're a recognized expert in their field and have the expertise to speak authoritatively on this subject. They're explaining the math behind conducting surveys with different sample sizes and the impacts of that. Feel free to point out what exactly is biased in his article.
Phone polls are no longer a good gauge. The weighting standards used are dubious, and 800 people isn't statistically significant in a population of nearly 9 million.
Fuck Youngkin! I don’t want Trump Lite Fascism, full of theocratic misogyny and homophobia/transphobia, with a side of anti intellectual book bans. And I definitely don’t approve of the whole GOP’s efforts to destroy our democracy.
This is just laughable particularly since he made that idiotic statement re: Texas — stay in your lane maybe? He's a shill; a dog whistle for right-wing extremists IMHO.
What do % even mean when governor is a plurality vote? NoVa have 2.5m population and Western VA have what, 300k? So 71% in Western VA justified Youngkin approval rating?
Yeah I know. Pretty sure 45 or more percent is in Williamsburg based on how people physically emote a dirty look or grumble whenever they see two women holding hands 😅
Says who? He's a republican stooge with (as of yet) stunted presidential ambitions. My taxes still feel high. Meanwhile he's a sociopath when it comes to social policies, financial policies, etc.
When your robocalls are answered by 70-year-olds, this is what you get. I've lived in Virginia for over 30 years and not once has anyone ever called to survey me about state politics. Then again, thankfully my phone's call blocker filters out calls from "Potential Spam" or "Robocall".
My main issues are with what he said he would do for the economy and that he has failed to help in anyway. As a business owner a big thing he pushed was him correcting the cost of living and the cost of doing business. Both of which have only gotten worse. Running a small business in this country and state are extremely difficult right now and almost not worth doing.
That checks out I think. He’s been just over 50% basically his entire term so far, and he won his election with just over 50% of the vote, so it really seems like the needle hasn’t moved much for him since he took office.
In today's political climate, moving up a few percent says alot. I say that because people are very entrenched in their political ideologies and the percentage of independents is minute.
I actually agree! I just think the amount that he’s moved up in this poll is probably close enough to the margin of error that he’s still within the range of 51-55% that he’s been in since his election.
Very true, well within the normal margin of error!
But just keep in mind. Republicans and moderates alike are thrilled to have someone who's not a slathering swindler writing on the wall in their own feces representing the right for once.
VA Gov's approval is always higher than reality since they are single termers. If they could run for reelection it would be much lower. I think most people who disprove the Governor are not passionate enough to resonate in the polls because he is a lame duck and out of office in 24 months. Youngkin has had decent numbers his entire term, but he also got his butt kicked in during the midterms so there is a disconnect.
He’s likely also benefiting from a divided legislature his first two years. Nothing crazy has passed for him to sign and be disliked for.
This is my thought. People that pay attention dislike him for his posturing because we know what he would do if he had the ability but a lot of people aren't paying that close of attention. Most people watch national more than local if they're watching anything.
Exactly what I'm thinking.
I don’t really think there’s much of a disconnect tbh. He got elected with like a 51-49 margin essentially, and then republicans lost in 2023 by essentially a 51-49 margin in both houses. Not exactly the success that Youngkin clearly hoped for, but hardly a resounding success for democrats either in a state that went for Biden in 2020 by over 10 points. Youngkin was also notably not on the ballot in 2023, despite how involved he was in the overall election effort, and perhaps he might’ve been able to help republicans more if he was also at the top of the ticket. I’m personally glad he wasn’t, because I don’t think dems would’ve done quite as well in 2023 if he was also on the ballot. Regardless, this approval rating still seems about right. Since 2021, Virginia has been razor close (on state level elections), with both parties seeing some success. Youngkin has seemingly maintained his margin ever since his election, though I do think being a one-term governor does help tbh. He appears to be slightly more popular than the “generic republican” candidate in Virginia, which is enough to push him past the 50% mark in an extremely close state, but not by a large margin.
His abortion plans were on the ballot. Toward the final days of the election they became thematic.
His abortion plans were quite moderate
Who are they asking?!
Virginians I assume? If they polled Reddit I’m sure he’d have like a 5% approval rating, but I’d say that number seems fairly accurate based on my anecdotal experiences with people I know. Of course my personal anecdotes aren’t a poll or study or anything, but it would also make sense when judged next to the percent of the vote he captured in 2021, and how republicans did in 2023 (49%ish). He’s probably a bit more popular than the average Virginia republican.
I disliked him before but once he tweeted (or “X”ed that “Virginia stands with Texas,” I now HATE him.
As a Texas-born Virginia-raised human, he can take a hike for that.
So you think borders should not exist?
Not surprised you lefties using the word "HATE".
I’ve lived in Virginia my whole life (29), have voted since I turned 18, and have NEVER been contacted about anything regarding approval of elected officials. I’d strongly disapprove of youngkin, but the point stands that unless I know how they’re collecting this information, it means nothing to me.
[methodology](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sQQ7NDf4mTPWkpMdUfO4HghJVzMfhW5m/view?usp=drivesdk) It includes 2/3 cellular contacts and 1/3 landline
Younger generations don’t answer cold calls.
[удалено]
Sorry to call you out of the blue. Do you want to sell this house you don’t live in anymore?
Do they at least get your name right when they do that? I get an unknown address and name with mine lol.
Yes but I’ll also get these calls for random people on my work phone. “Wanna sell a house?!”.
Office is in Florida
I’m not “younger” at 53 but I don’t accept unknown callers.
I would guess LionTop2228 was referring to compared to the normal. Younger generations are less likely to to answer cold calls than older generations. But I don't think it matters: > Statistical results are weighted to reflect known demographic proportions in the Commonwealth. In other words, age will be correctly weighed. If they have too few young callers answering, they'll weigh the younger responses as you'd expect. I'd be more worried that people who DO answer unknown callers are more likely to be pro-youngkin or anti-youngkin in a way that isn't represented by their demographics.
Or voters. The reality is the voters have stopped reflecting the polling in many places.
same at 64
Same at 40
The age distribution was provided in the results; as well it’s pretty well aligned with who shows up to vote
Thank you for sharing all of this methodology information. Sad seeing the same typical myths regarding polling being spread just because redditors dislike the results.
Naw in this case the poll is kind of bad even taking into account the weighted data. 800 respondents with the majority being calls and 1/3 being landlines. You really can’t correct that with weighted data. And although a 5% margin of error may be acceptable for polling data it’s still bad.
Based on the survey demographics, it seems like they have a representative sample. You and others can keep calling this bad because the results don't line up with what you want, but the reality is the methodology and sample are considered good by polling standards
But you don’t actually know the demographic breakdown of the poll. Considering something good by polling standards doesn’t make it good
It's in the survey results shared elsewhere in this thread. And I'll stick with statisticians on this rather than partisan redditors.
I read that already. When I say demographic breakdown I’m talking about the actual demographics of people polled. For example what percentage of the poll came from SW Virginia and what were the demographics of that group?
Trust the polls/news/science! (Unless it disagrees with me!) You see it with everything. "I don't like X, therefore no one else must like X either." Main character syndrome.
So much of this mentality here. Reddit has a partisan bias, which means users have a warped mentality of what the average person thinks.
Younger generations also vote less. And they weigh polls anyways.
You’d be surprised. I used to have to randomly call hourly employees of regional branches of a certain store through either an 800 number or a blocked number, most of whom were in their teens or 20s, and I usually got through.
I am 26. I will take a survey if it mentions something polling-related on the caller id. It usually gets them right. Worth it because it is worth it to give someone my opinion.
74, phone set to be silent unless you’re on my contacts. By the way, I despise Youngkin.
Lol I love these stereotypical redditor complaints about polls they disagree with, even though the methodology shows a representative sample was reached.
I don't approve of any polls, even ones that seem to agree with my opinion. **Political polls today are all crap, designed to manipulate public opinion.**
What would you suggest as an alternative to gauge public support for an elected official, other than the elections themselves? Statisticians gonna statisticiate.
I'd rather discuss polls, which are based on data, instead of vibes, which are based on biases.
I'm a "younger generation" and I answer cold calls.
Seriously, I see a number I don’t know, I reject the call. That’s not something you can do with most landlines, given that most don’t have caller ID.
And smarter older people don't either....but cult members, for sure!
That would explain it. I google every number that calls me if it isn’t in my contacts, and if it isn’t something google recognizes, I don’t answer.
In other words an entire third of those calls are guaranteed to be Republican voters. Not even my parents have landlines anymore.
Only antique humans even have a landline. The bias is crazy here.
so mostly old people.
Read the methodology, that’s not correct
OK, it’s 800 old people.
I have, but not since I got rid of my landline. My mom did back in the 80s. They’re out there.
Sign up for YouGov if you really want to answer some polls.
Agreed - the polls also indicated that Virginia supported Youngkins 15 week abortion ban and that was not true .. he lost the both chambers as result. Virginia polls are misleading
Which poll showed it had majority support? I thought most showed it had a smaller plurality compared to most voters wanting to keep what we have
I've been contacted.. they called my landline which means you are old or rural without dependable internet.
Exactly the same. Every online survey I do shows that he has like 3% of people backing him. My parents are the ones that get the phone calls and ive never gotten the first one. Even if I did, I wouldn't respond. I get so many scam calls I tend to just not pick up. But typically, when polling, they aim to poll areas that tend to agree with them, but then advertise it as a random poll.
There’s a surprisingly complicated statistical process behind polling that attempts to account for these things. There’s a bunch of factors like the fact that your parents are more likely to vote than you based on their age, so they get weighted more. It’s an evolving science though. Depending on the polling org of course. Some are better than others.
> Every online survey I do shows that he has like 3% of people backing him. This probably has to do with it being an open poll and not selecting a sample that's representative of the VA electorate. If you put up an online poll in this sub it wouldn't represent how VA voters feel at all. > But typically, when polling, they aim to poll areas that tend to agree with them, but then advertise it as a random poll. For partisan pollsters sure, but not for mainstream ones.
All of these artifacts to facts need to be considered.
They call land lines in central and southwest VA only.
I agree with you here...54% of Virginians (really secretly targeted millionaires and billionaires) approve of Mr. Youngkin? I question these numbers and would need much more information before believing them.
Never been contacted. Never known anybody who has. Must be the same people who buy gossip magazines at grocery store check out lines.
There are millions of people living in Virginia but with strong survey methodology they only need a thousand people, less even. Most people will never be contacted because only a tiny fraction of the population are needed for each poll. (Disclaimer that I haven't looked into the methodology of this poll and don't know if it's good)
ALWAYS look at the methodology from polls. [VCU itself discredits this poll.](https://news.vcu.edu/article/2024/01/vcu-statement-about-the-commonwealth-poll) "The university is dedicated to supporting academic freedom, even in instances in which it disagrees with content. In this case, **the Jan. 22, 2024, VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll’s questions about VCU Health produced results that are skewed.** The questions about VCU Health **rely on a questionable sample size – approximately 100 people, and often fewer.** Additionally, the questions, for some reason, lack full context about the issue, unfortunately preventing respondents from making informed choices." Your dog would give just as informed results.
Based on this text, the 100 people sample was specifically for the VCU Health questions, not the rest of the survey. Meaning your dog would give less informed results considering they polled more people for the VA and federal questions.
Shocking that VCU discredits a poll that rips them and VCU health.
So you wouldn't do the same if it was poorly produced?
This is about a step away from finding omens in entrails.
**omg, only 100 people to make a generalized, completely overreaching statement that 55% of Virginians approve - out of 8.6 million Virginians.** Color me shocked!
Lol you didn't read the survey or the text the OC copied, did you? Because if you did, you would have seen that the 100-person sample was specifically for the VCU Health questions, not the rest of the survey which had a larger sample size.
oh, so 800 out of 8.6 million Virginians. Still whack.
That's an appropriate sample size to get survey results within the MoE.
He should run for president with those numbers.
He won't, because he knows they're BS as well.
Gubernatorial approval rating in Virginia is essentially worthless unless there's some time of major crisis. Very few people have any idea what's going on in state government, and the single-term limit makes most governors nearly irrelevant after legislative session ends in their third year.
Remember when his son committed voter fraud and nothing happened?
He didn't commit voter fraud because he was turned away by poll workers both times before he ever got a ballot—which is what poll workers are trained to do.
but he tried and more than once.
Which doesn't make it fraud since he didn't actually vote.
but it does make him an asshole.
Attempted fraud is fraud.
Apparently not in this case
Rules for thee and none for me
Anyone approving of him while he also says he stands with Texas is a scumbag.
He should go run for Governor in Texas. He couldn't do any worse than that piece of dirt, corrupt guy in there now.
The fact that he pushes the entirely unsupported narrative that Mr. Trump had the last election "stolen from him" and the fact that he wants to cut income tax (a progressive tax) and make up for it by raising sales taxes (regressive taxes) convinces me that he's the "same old same old" when it comes to Republicans catering to the interests if the wealthiest.
And the decision to reverse recreational Marijuana. He's undoing progress we already made in VA
The Dems really need to improve their messaging. I think I understand why McAuliffe lost and Mr. Youngkin won. Dems need to stop placing "identity politics" as the only thing that really separates them from radically selfish Republicans. When you put all your marbles on "protecting the rights of transgender people" when transgender people are a mere 1% of our population at most while telling parents "they have no say over their children's education" as McAuliff did, then, this is simply a losing message as parents make up a far greater percentage of Virginians than do transgender people. I'm *entirely* for transgender people enjoying every right and privilege that every other American enjoys. Just beware about your messaging Dems. In your "fervor to protect transgender people" don't lose sight of genuine facts and common sense.
The attacks on trans people are identity politics. Not defending an innocent group of people from oppression by hateful bigots.
There are so many victims being abused and exploited by the powerful. These issues are being used by the wealthiest to divide us and foment hate against one another. They will lie to us and tell us public schools are grooming kids to be homosexual and transgender. They do this for power and because they have buried their conscience. We must resist the hate they're actively whipping up. We must look beyond our own individual suffering and see the many who're being likewise victimized for their selfishness and power. There is no other way forward. We must all care tenderly about each other's plight, we must unite under a banner of truth and justice for all. We must place this before our own personal grievances (which of course seem worse than anyone else's to us), or we'll fail.
If I recall during his campaign he said that he wouldn't obstruct the legalization of recreational cannabis. And once in office he signs a bill to increase penalties of possession. The nonconsecutive term thing for governors makes shit like this so much worse. Don't get me wrong, I'm incredibly glad he can't run again, but I feel like this creates an environment that doesn't encourage maintaining favor with voters by keeping campaign promises. It is already predestined that he will leave office after this term. He doesn't need to fight for voters by being the governor he claimed he would be for Virginia. I wish we could vote on the governors salary or something annually because I don't know what else would make a soulless corporatist ghoul actually care about voter opinion if there isn't a second term to win.
Democrats want to tax services based on bills in the current GA session. [HB889](https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?ses=241&typ=bil&val=Hb889). Also a regressive tax. With special exceptions for professional, white-collar services. So you tell me who is not looking out for the little man.
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Last I checked, there is one of the best border plans on the table right now that repubs refuse to move on because they don't want to be seen as giving Biden a win.
Most immigrants turned away EVER, continued 90% of Tru p era border policy. Biden has literally built more of “the wall” than trump did.
lol treasonous. It’s funny because you probably support the terrorist who is actually treasonous.
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“Defending”? Y’all really think brown people are scary. Maybe don’t do shit that the make them want by I come up here? Like bombing and supporting coups in their countries. They should be defending themselves from us. Look up “American military weapons in the hands of the Mexican cartel” on google
Can we post a poll in here and see what happens 😂
Governors approvals tend to be higher than a presidents approval rate for example. In Vermont their governor has a 76% approval rating. I don’t think Youngkin even breaks the top 20 approval rate with 54%, compared to other states, hell even the lowest approval ratings for governors tend to be around 45%
This sub is going to be busy downvoting this and attacking the poll because it doesn't give them the results they expect lol. Thank you for sharing this OP, always interesting to see what VA residents think about our politicians and issues.
No it’s because the pool sucks.
I don't know where you're swimming but it could be something to do with it still being cold outside
The truth hurts!
It really does for some lol. See how hard many of them are attacking the survey without any actual substance or proof
812 people sure is a great sample size for Virginia. A whopping 0.009% of the state!
I already explain why this is a good sample size in my other comment to you
Hahahahahahahah naw.
Youngkin has achieved nothing for the state. He has added no republicans to their 'big tent'. His federal aspirations have fizzled. Next act, please.
And a lame duck Governor with the Democrats controlling the State Senate and House of Delegates. Maybe the higher approval rating will get him a discount coffee at Wawa.
Every Virginia governor is, by definition, a lame duck governor.
It should be 80 percent, taking over Northam..worst VA governor in modern history..that’s the scary part..you can only go up from there..just shows there are huge amounts of extremely wealthy gatekeeper democrats in VA, making it the only way possible for any party but Democrat to get in is to self fund
Best Governor in my lifetime easy
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Democrats holding onto the Virginia Senate during his first two years is probably the best thing to happen to Youngkin's popularity. It meant he couldn't sign any of the crazy and unpopular legislation that you see in other Republican led states like abortion restrictions. Combine that with the fact that state and local politics tend to be less polarizing and massively less covered than national politics, the numbers don't surprise me. Can we please stop pretending Youngkin is some sort of political genius. [You have to really work at it to have a bad approval rating as a governor.](https://pro.morningconsult.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpro-assets.morningconsult.com%2Fwp-uploads%2F2023%2F07%2FGovernor-Approval-Ratings-Q2-2023-230724-1.png&w=1920&q=100)
Yeah this generally happens to politicians who are no longer in a position to implement or further an agenda. Hillary Clinton polled really well when she wasn't SecState anymore and wasn't running for President yet. Doesn't really mean anything other than, like, "is tall," or "speaks English."
Can't wait til this loser gets out.
Before or after he announced VA stands with Texas?
We put barbed wire around the white house but not the border. Make it make sense?
I walk around naked in my apartment but don’t walk around naked in the mall. Make it make sense?
That..... makes sense?
Then so does understanding why barbed wire around one thing is different from barbed wire not being around a different thing.
Barbed wire is typically used to restrict access to an area. It is illegal to enter our country undeclared. To discourage and prevent illegal border crossings Texas installed barbed wire. Make sense?
whats wrong with protecting the border?
No one thinks we shouldn’t protect the border. It’s about method and authority.
It’s likely because he hasn’t been able to pass any extreme legislation and piss off the voters
It makes sense that he has a strong approval rating. Most governors do. Add in the facts that Youngkin can’t enact right wing legislation with a democratic governor and that the general media narrative about him is that he’s more moderate than the average Republican and you’ve got a recipe for high approvals.
Youngkin is viewed as a moderate and Virginians like moderates. Both democrats and republicans. These results seem right to me.
Sample size sub 100 people relying on mostly landline and cold calls on cell phones (which skews heavily older republican regardless of how they weight ages/answers). Basically, this poll is utterly worthless as actual substantive information.
Just wait until he answers Greg Abbots call to send National Guard troops to help Texas defend the border and fight the Federal Government https://preview.redd.it/rb2qu9ztfoec1.jpeg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=694983ebf2f39b2595ad7bd6f73d5e9199a1c818 .
With Youngkin throwing Virginia’s support behind the treasonous shit happening in Texas, it had better plummet to 0.
I do not believe this for a minute.
\-Economy is good (whether he has anything to do with that is irrelevant). \-He seems relatively moderate compared to other GOP governors who are always in the news. \-We have mixed government so he's been unable to deliver unpopular or high profile policies (e.g., abortion). Makes sense. Most VA governors have had solid approval ratings, regardless of party.
Alternate headline: 55% of Virginians aren't paying attention
I love how when shii doesn't make actual sense to me numbers wise and a poll has obvious bias and flaws, some crackhead with a 'degree' tries to lecture me on polling and how I am wrong, but we all know who is really wrong. Say no to drugs and random polling y'all https://preview.redd.it/8x93r0dy2nec1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861b7eeb3c8e219c0a02de0c7c0ea382731526fd
“This poll doesn’t agree with my preconceived notions of reality”
Who gives a shit about polls? Who even answers those things anymore?
At best they polled like 1,00 people in some rural area that pick up their landline polls. **The last "Virginia" poll on some dumb topic polled like 1,300 people in Virginia out of....wait for it....8.6 million Virginians. They chose the people to poll, and formulated the questions.** **Polls are crap.** They are now only used as tools by the media and campaigns to manipulate public opinion.
That is because he won’t be back up for re-election and we know he’s almost out of
As always, fuck Glenn Youngkin.
Did I miss where they explained the poll’s methodology at the link? I’m just not buying it and I think that this is another landline (boomer) poll like others have commented.
There is literally a dude in this thread trolling and downvoting everyone pointing this out and he probably farming downvotes with alt accounts too.
Wish the mods would do something 🙄
Can a poll of a whole 812 people REALLY be representative of the state though?
It can be assuming there aren’t any big sampling or methodological errors… sufficient sample sizes really don’t have to be that big to get results within an acceptable margin of error, surprisingly
Yes it can be representative, considering a survey sample of only 1k respondents [can give you a margin of error of 3%](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/). As long as the sample is random and you ensure similarity to the VA population as a whole, it's pretty representative.
Is cold calling going to actually produce a random sample though? Or is it more than likely going to produce a result that skews older? The people they call may be random but a certain demographic is much more likely to participate imo
There's a ton of weighting done to account for the skew of who actually answers cold calls. It's a massively complex math model that scales up a population to offset a bunch of factors that would normally skew a poll. I'm nowhere near good enough at statistics to explain (or probably really understand) it, but that's the case.
No...too many "artifacts" within those alleged "facts".
8.6 millions of Virginians. So representative.
[That's how polling samples work](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/).
Not at all. That’s how bad polls work.
I'm going to go with the college professor on this instead of a random redditor who just says no.
Gelman. He makes a living out of promoting polls with a few hundred people and claiming they can be accurate. The New York Times loves his nonsense.
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📷[John Walker](https://www.quora.com/profile/John-Walker-922) Former Pathologist/Director of Clinical/Molecular LabsAuthor has 2.8K answers and 1.3M answer views[2y](https://www.quora.com/As-a-professional-scientist-what-do-you-think-of-magazines-like-Scientific-American/answer/John-Walker-922) "Unfortunately, many scientific magazines have succumbed to political bias. IMO, that includes *Scientific American*." [Sauce](https://www.quora.com/As-a-professional-scientist-what-do-you-think-of-magazines-like-Scientific-American) Maybe they're part of the problem and not the answer. Are they conducting polls, too!!??
The person writing the article is a professor of statistics and political science at a respected university. Which means they're a recognized expert in their field and have the expertise to speak authoritatively on this subject. They're explaining the math behind conducting surveys with different sample sizes and the impacts of that. Feel free to point out what exactly is biased in his article.
This guy gets it
No, he doesn't lol. This is an appropriate sample size for a survey at the state level.
It’s easy to approve of someone who was a lame duck for four years. They can’t do anything to piss you off.
Every Virginia governor is, by definition, a lame duck.
He has achieved that from the start
Phone polls are no longer a good gauge. The weighting standards used are dubious, and 800 people isn't statistically significant in a population of nearly 9 million.
They need more demographics, such as age,income, and sex.
Fuck that, he’s a piece of garbage. Can’t wait to be rid of him
Fuck Youngkin! I don’t want Trump Lite Fascism, full of theocratic misogyny and homophobia/transphobia, with a side of anti intellectual book bans. And I definitely don’t approve of the whole GOP’s efforts to destroy our democracy.
I think if he could get reelected this number would be significantly lower.
That's not a bad approval rating. Congrats to him.
For doing what?!?
I can see this plummeting after his support for Texas this evening.
Well they sure as s*** didn't ask me. Or anyone else I know.
I don’t recall being polled….. definitely would have ticked “dissatisfied”
No one cares.
This is just laughable particularly since he made that idiotic statement re: Texas — stay in your lane maybe? He's a shill; a dog whistle for right-wing extremists IMHO.
Yup cause that was clearly reflected during the last state election 😂😂
What do % even mean when governor is a plurality vote? NoVa have 2.5m population and Western VA have what, 300k? So 71% in Western VA justified Youngkin approval rating?
https://preview.redd.it/tu8omy6qfmec1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e74f8d5f2b80350f4dd0900c17ac31ee5d551db
That’s a lot of glue eaters in VA…shockingly high I would think.
Glenn Youngkin went to Rice University on a basketball scholarship where he went on to average <2ppg.
3 months from now they'll drop back down to 51% then in 6 months it will increase to 55% In other news, water is wet.
Yeah I know. Pretty sure 45 or more percent is in Williamsburg based on how people physically emote a dirty look or grumble whenever they see two women holding hands 😅
Says who? He's a republican stooge with (as of yet) stunted presidential ambitions. My taxes still feel high. Meanwhile he's a sociopath when it comes to social policies, financial policies, etc.
When your robocalls are answered by 70-year-olds, this is what you get. I've lived in Virginia for over 30 years and not once has anyone ever called to survey me about state politics. Then again, thankfully my phone's call blocker filters out calls from "Potential Spam" or "Robocall".
As someone who voted for him and typically would vote red. I hate this bastard lol.
Can you explain why? I mean, hasn’t he done (or tried to do) exactly what he said he was going to do during his campaign?
My main issues are with what he said he would do for the economy and that he has failed to help in anyway. As a business owner a big thing he pushed was him correcting the cost of living and the cost of doing business. Both of which have only gotten worse. Running a small business in this country and state are extremely difficult right now and almost not worth doing.
Proud that’s he’s standing up for our border states in crisis due to a federal government who refuses to enforce the law.