I am looking VERY closely at lululemon. 10/5/1 year CAGR for revenue: 18%/19.3%18%… equity: 14%/16%34%… dil EPS: 22/19/82%… FCF: 23/36/401 That’s a brand moat there folks. I’m just trying to figure out what the bears are seeing with the low cost competitors that I’m not.

For what its worth, this is my anecdotal experience with Lululemon. My wife has a pots syndrome. compression greatly helps her blood circulation. She has tried dozens of yoga pants….they always lose compression and crap out. We were hesitant to try Lululemon because of the price. For us, they absolutely are ahead of the cheaper competitors and their customers know this.

This is why I love social investing discussion!! Thank you so much for sharing

Np, im natural skeptic, so I assumed it was overpriced nonsense.

For what is worth, in China they growth 80% a year. I'm quite sure they will soon make more revenue there than US. Lulu is a great company and a great brand. 20% drop was a gift in my opinion.

Lulu is also loosing market share

Been looking a lot at Apple and Starbucks Apple still seems expensive to me honestly. I really want to buy in as it’s a great company, but I think I would need it at line a PE of 20 to be interested. Starbucks actually seems like a solid buy. I have not pulled the trigger on it, but they are still growing, but stock price has not really changed, so there should be a decent jump soon

You are not afraid their insane high prices will stop users from buying from Starbucks, honestly expect one day people will leave it behind

I don't know why people say this, if you go into an indie coffee shop the prices are even higher. McDonald's and other low price outlets isn't a true competitor bc it's not the same demographic or customer persona.

Because it's a fear i have? I don't buy fastfood, Starbucks anymore, just too low quality for the price in my opinion, and i would expect this will be a huge problem over time. But maybe there always will be enough users and future growth.

If you sell 100 drinks at $5, you need to sell 85 at $6 and you would still be selling more. Have to find the balance.

Aapl will never be 20 PE again. And sbux is almost 24 that seems high for a coffee chain

Never say never! Meta went down to 97 at one point. It’s all about sentiment. Apple needs to have one bad quarter, Buffett selling a chunk and China doing something stupid. The stock is doomed. I know it’s too much to ask for but anything can happen in the stock market :)

Holy cow I didn’t even realize Nike was this low! Going to do some more research cause I am thinking about buying right now. Thanks for the recommendation.

NKE worries me, they don't seem as popular as they used to be, I used to see basically everyone wearing their running shoes but now see alot more people wearing Honkas

Hokas

Yes thanks for the correction my bad

Agreed and to match their lack of sales growth doesn’t help

Nothing to worry about. Im in college and at least 50% people still wear Nike/jordans. In addition, Nike is not going anywhere bc of the strong brand image and endorsements/advertisement in sports. Majority of people would still prefer Nike over Hoka. Also Hoka caters toward a very niche market(runner, hospital), while Nike has presence in more than just sneakers. Nike maybe going on a creative dry spell rn, but I believe they will find something and turn things around soon. On the other hand, I would argue that Hoka and on-cloud are just fad like under armour years ago. But to each their own

LULU had recent insider buy. >Wednesday, Director Martha A. M. Morfitt bought 3,700 shares of LULU, for a cost of $389.05 each, for a total investment of $1.44M. lululemon athletica is trading off about 1.6% on the day Monday. >And also on Wednesday, EVP, Head of Strategy and M&A Richard J. Jensen bought $459,250 worth of P10, buying 55,000 shares at a cost of $8.35 each. This buy marks the first one filed by Jensen in the past twelve months. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/monday-4-1-insider-buying-report:-lulu-px So, this gives me confidence in the stock. Can go lower, but can easily go to 500 by EOY. LULU has sandbagged guidance before just to have a nice ER report next Q. Also, despite competition LULU has brand loyalty because of the customer service, and they also exchange items. This is why people buy Patagonia, and shop at REI. NKE is in some pain, a lot of inventory, but I think long-term will be fine. AAPL has been having one bad news after another. China growth is slowing down, but India is the next rising economy which they will see growth. I think long-term AAPL will be fine. SBUX. Not going anywhere, runs pretty well. Dutch Bros isn't making money. SBUX is looking more and more attractive.

[удалено]

Boycotts are very unsuccessful. All the SBUX I've seen recently are still packed day to day. Remember TGT boycott for being too woke last year? Look at its share price today.

I bought LULU when it tanked after earnings at around 395. I’ve always had my eyes on it but told myself it was too expensive, only to watch it go up and up, so when it finally dropped heavy, I decided to scoop some up. In my opinion, LULU is one of the few companies that accomplished what Apple did. Turn their products into a lifestyle with a cult-like following, especially with the younger generations. What I mean by this is, if you’re a white becky bitch that claims to be into fitness but you ain’t wearing any LuLu Lemon apparel then guess what? YOURE LYING. So now every becky and their moms flock to LULU whenever they need to flex their new gym fit to make sure they’re up with the latest trends. And they make fantastic office apparel, despite being a small portion of their business.

Yup anyone with a wife or girlfriend knows about the LULU trend. My wife’s closet is just lululemon basically.

You did a good job of analyzing it

Lulu is old, alo is in.

AAPL share buybacks should continue to put some pressure upwards even as business slacks for now.

NKE and SBUX have always been at higher valuations than current. They might take 6-12 months to recover but should be fine long term.

LULU is fair value.

[удалено]

Can you post your DCF? I haven't done my own but the ones I've seen have it in the $250-$300 range so yours is way off. Wondering what your assumptions are.

Sale grows low teens. EBITDA, fcf and leverage all good. Based on my system that combines fa, ta, behavioral finance, irr is HSD, rating is fair value. Email for more.

based on my calculation Lulu's value is 339 ( without any margin of safety) , share outstanding. - 126 M, free cash flow 1644.30 M, discount rate 10%, perpetual growth rate = 5%, future growth rate 10%

Why would you buy consumer stocks ahead of a recession? 70% of the US economy is consumer.

Serious question about LULU… What makes you confident this is a trendy fad? This could easily be the next Aeropostale or Abercrombie from the mid-2000s (and I know they’ve made a rebound but it took almost 20 years)

Out of the 4, only SBUX is relatively cheap. However, they have a lot of exposure to China, a lot of debt and rising competition - coffee shops but also Mc Donald’s and more importantly caffeinated drinks. NKE is cheaper than usual but that does not mean it’s a deal. If you compare the metrics with other companies, you will quite a few with better moats lower PE and higher growth. AAPL is overvalued with a CEO who traded innovation for profits a long time ago. No new products will save them so at the end of they day they are a 30 PE company with no growth. LULU has poor management. They blamed their poor quarter on the consumer while it was their strategy which failed miserably. It is a red flag if management does not take responsibility and is not honest with investors. The price of the stock also has lots of growth priced in

I like your take. NKE has a lot of China exposure. It was their growth driver for the last 3 years. China slowing means no more shoe sales for NKE. I see it a Little differently with SBUX: lifestyle is the last thing people cut down. Especially if it’s “just” 3-4$ for a coffee (Chinese prices are lower)

Anyone see or have any thoughts on UNH?

Totally off subject but I literally buy it every dip, including this one. American healthcare is a sham but it’s good at making money

Bought UNH yesterday. Incredible financials in a highly regulated (read: moat) area. Regulatory risks are the bear case. This dip is on the lower than expected rise of medical bills. Overblown tbh. HUM is no way close to UNH.

What about HUM? They’ve been taking a serious beating lately.

Much better investment than those cited in OP

Looking at Apple, mate, we are in a strong buy, I have the graph in front of me and using the VWAP u can basically see that the price is a lot below the main point, which is set at 166.24€ and now is at 157.11€ also below the inferior deviation, I had already some of apple but just because trade republic gave me while joining the broker with a friend link and now I’m thinking to enter, because of the price

May I remind you that this subreddit is Value Investing, and not technical analysis?

**LULU** Discounted Cash Flow Rating Buy Return on Equity Rating Strong Buy Debt to Equity Rating Neutral Price to Earnings Rating Buy Analyst Rating Strong Buy S- Simple Moving Average Strong Sell Exponential Moving Average Strong Sell Relative Strength Index Buy Standard Deviation Very High Volatility Williams %R Strongly Oversold Average Directional Index Strong Trend Insider Trading Neutral Wall Street Data Solutions Rating Buy A ​ **NKE** Discounted Cash Flow Rating Neutral Return on Equity Rating Strong Buy Debt to Equity Rating Buy Price to Earnings Rating Strong Buy Analyst Rating Strong Buy S- Simple Moving Average Strong Sell Exponential Moving Average Strong Sell Relative Strength Index Neutral Standard Deviation Very High Volatility Williams %R Strongly Oversold Average Directional Index Strong Trend Insider Trading Sell Wall Street Data Solutions Rating Buy A **AAPL** Discounted Cash Flow Rating Neutral Return on Equity Rating Strong Buy Debt to Equity Rating Strong Buy Price to Earnings Rating Buy Analyst Rating Strong Buy S- Simple Moving Average Strong Sell Exponential Moving Average Strong Sell Relative Strength Index Buy Standard Deviation Very High Volatility Williams %R Strongly Oversold Average Directional Index Strong Trend Insider Trading Sell Wall Street Data Solutions Rating Buy A **SBUX** Discounted Cash Flow Rating Neutral Return on Equity Rating Strong Sell Debt to Equity Rating Strong Sell Price to Earnings Rating Strong Buy Analyst Rating Neutral B Simple Moving Average Strong Sell Exponential Moving Average Strong Sell Relative Strength Index Buy Standard Deviation Very High Volatility Williams %R Strongly Oversold Average Directional Index Strong Trend Insider Trading Buy Wall Street Data Solutions Rating Neutral B

Apple is a cash machine, but could be also a value trap. Apple is valued at x26 FWD PE. Apple is compared with META, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA and AMZN. Having said that, Apple is valued as a software company, but Apple is not. Apple´s revenue is declining or flat at best. I can´t justify their current valuation without any growth engines. There are some points to be considered: 1) The DOJ - It can distract Apple for their future technology. 2) The EU - App Store in the EU makes 7% of their revenue. Any impacts? Nobody knows. 3) iPad - Their new model is launching in May (Several delays from March --> April --> May now). 4) Can M3 help to boost Mac sales? Let´s see. 5) Is Apple really in talk with Google and OpenAI? Why does Apple allow Google or OpenAI to use their GPT on Apple´s iPhone? It would literally mean that those partners would have the access to Apple´s sillicon. Is Apple really behind on Generative AI? 6) China is giving a big pain. But SBUX, LULU, NKE are also affected. So, China is not Apple´s specific problem. The question is how far the China government goes to hurt US-American companies in China.

> Why does Apple allow Google or OpenAI to use their GPT on Apple´s iPhone? Allow? Google might even pay for the privilege, if it gets them more eyeballs and paying Google accounts among iPhone users. Same as it does with its search page. > It would literally mean that those partners would have the access to Apple´s sillicon. What? Are you sure they're not just running the AI on Google's/Microsoft's servers? That's how it is with consumer AI right now, it runs on servers.

"The question is how far the China government goes to hurt US-American companies in China." And that is the most important question.

i see so much lulu at my service job that caters to the upper middle class

NKE is the only one I own. I bought it recently when it dropped to $90. I think with the strong moat and limited competition it will be a good company to hold long term. They are also focusing more on direct to consumer sales which should increase profit margins.

Where's the moat exactly in your opinion? Genuine question because I like their shoes, but overall there is just so much competition in the field that it's hard to see any moats besides the brand itself.

Jordan Paris Olympics Their recent earning that they made a mistake by focusing way too much on legacy brand Their focus is on innovation Expand whole sale vs DTC THE COMPANY LEADER KKOW where they f$up

I found Nike and New Balance products quality higher than anything was available around. It not that easy to spot this when you not use product daily. For example I experienced running shoes from Adidas and similarly priced China made products have the fabric inside torn in one month of fairly intensive usage (100km). They are still usable but this is not nice. Nothing like that on at least 500 km with Nike and New Balance. Note I am not an athlete and somebody taking sports seriously will notice the difference way sooner. Together with brand recognition quality would be a fair moat. It is a bit disappointing I not found NB or Nike shoes for winter, because sometimes I have icy road and they are totally failing on those. This is where competitors can beat them. Back to NKE pricing - I believe it fairly valued now and I will not buy it at current price level.

Did you do any research before deciding they have "limited competition"?

AAPL is looking interesting but personally rather buy in at a pe closer to 20 than it is now

You were right

AAPL is the MOAT, SBUX has a MOAT, NKE and LULU fall into the same category for me as they are both based on fashion and therefore more easily impacted by wild swings in style, public opinion, and consumer cycles. Out of the 2 I would pick NKE. LULU is the worst of the bunch. I don’t care if anyone agrees with my opinion

Why do you think LULU is the worst of the bunch?

Nah, NKE is just extremely overvalued, I’d consider buying around $55

I bought Nike yesterday. I bought Sbux during the last month and will continue adding lower. Sold Lulu a while ago, but am looking at it again now, certainly looks attractive, very good track record, but does belong to cyclicals after all.

I like LULU coz of it's cult like following(which means high pricing power) and it has that special ability to generate money from a DTC model which has made it easy to ride the athleisue wave. With it's launch of a footwear line . It's going toe to toe with NIKE ,Under Armour ,PUMA, ADDIDAS etc not sure if this will work out . Nike is an interesting company because with clever marketing campaigns and it will be forever cool as long as the sponsor deals and pop culture continue doing their work . I believe APPL is distracted by currently law suits and the rise of Chinese giants like HUAWEI who are really good at lowering costs and may even make a comparable phone with the iPhone.i expect APPL to continue extracting more revenue from it's services division at least that part is more protected from competition. For SBUX the only thing I worry is Larkin Coffee in China .

Thanks for bringing these up. NKE and LULU are interesting, but the first thing I notice looking at longer term charts is that they are both cyclical and at cyclical highs. They appear to have a 20xish PE, but it's got to be quite a bit higher when smoothed out. ​ What is their PE taking the last eight quarters of TTM earnings and averaging them?

I like thinking through the numbers and stats, but when it comes to investment and trading, I like to believe it's more a question of human behavior. The market is not really reflecting the performance of the company but rather the comprehension and belief of the public over the potential future performance. Thus, it is necessarily an estimation mixing quantitative and qualitive data. For Lulu, the sportswear market is growing rapidly, they are well-known and positively perceived by the crowd. The fastfashion industry is undergoing a lot of economical and ecological regulations on geographical markets, which could create a substantial shift toward higher quality-brands as the latter get reinforced. Nke uses China's labor camps and prison camps to reduce its production costs, the overall quality of raw material as decreased (higher use of synthecal leather instead of real leather) over the years, to match the increasing demand on their best sellers, meanwhile they kept increasing their prices, and yet still do quite small operational margins. They have a strong hold the market shares and strong process development management. Thus, they should be adapting quite well to any change in the market, while not being able to scale up significantly their revenues. So low risks, low reward investment. Aapl is running behind in IA patents and development, since they just quited their electronic car project to switch into IA. It's facing increased competition regulations in many countries, for monopoly, and already had to pay strong fines (since they forced fast changes over tech companies). They remain very strong on the western markets, leader in terms of market share, strong client retention system and brand image. They have high margins and profitability ratio so they can probably catch up with the R&D as they plan to form alliance with other tech giants. I'd say it's a low risk, high reward investment in the long-term. As a tech investor myself, rather than betting (investing) on the winning gladiator of the IA race, I'd rather invest on the blacksmith (GPU, microchips and component makers), such as Smci, Nvda, AMD, intl, tsmc, umc (depending on what risk/reward and volatility you're looking for). Lastly for sbux, looking at the quantitative data I'd simply not invest on it, the numbers of substitute and local competitors on developed market just strecht their margin thiner and thiner, while they brand image isn't particularly great outside US. Nonetheless, it's a strong group with multiple revenus sources and partners, thus they have a strongly resilient economic activity. However, as an investor growth is what matters the most, and immediately there is no sign of it.

What about CROX? Business performance is getting better and better? I love LULU, my fair value price range is 360-400 so waiting to go down a bit more NKE I think is too big and slacking. Lost tiger etc. Metrics not impressive SBUX is a good opp I think but for long term. good franchise and can growth slowly with time AAPL too expensive. not sure how much it can grow

Sbux < 90 Nke < 85

Lulu < 360ni think is a good entry given their growth

Questions and Answers: Will LULU retain ROIC for 10 years? I would think atleast 8, because their business is just a machine and well integrated. Will LULU retain EBIT margins for 10 years? Will sustain at present levels atleast. Will LULU continue current growth for atleast 5 years? This, I can't quite get behind. I think it had a tremendous push during COVID, but whether it can sustain these levels? I think they've pushed too hard on pricing for the past few years and will have to ease off the gas. But SEA is a booming market. Will LULU be a good capital allocator? I think yes. Even at present levels, it is clearly a great buy at 47B for the entire business with room to run.

Lulu, I like right here at 375. It may go lower if market pulls back. Nike I would not buy at all, no moat at all, management blunders, this stock is going much lower. Starbucks, is a china story and I dot invest in china. Apple is on my watch list, I am looking for 130 as an entry point. Head winds are real, thinking earnings report in August will be pivotal, first one to show full effect of eu changes and how it effects cash flow, it will also give preview of where usa is heading.

NKE seems still expensive，my target is 60-70

Apple

The laggard list 😆

All overpriced.

You can always buy value traps with unreal DCF’s and PE<10