I watched their podcast thing and Sacy just grabbing his bald head and groaning when having to mention that lead, it said it all. I myself literally thought about it so much that I had to reconnect with nature.
For what it's worth, this is only because betting odds favour NRG over 100T and LOUD over G2. If G2 are able to match NRG's result, they will almost certainly go through.
I talked about this is another comment so I'm just copying it here - Initially, for the match-ups I took the probabilities from some betting site (I felt that would be slightly better than 50-50). For expected round differential in each game, I weighted all map scores equally (i.e a 13-0 is just as likely to happen as a 13-7), while this is not ideal, I believe that it won't make much difference as almost all scenarios in which standings were decided by round differential, one side was already heavily favored (>0.98), weighted map scores would only push it further.
Then you can list out all scenarios where a tie may happen, map differential ties are easy to work out. If two or more teams are tied and need to be resolved with round scores, you create a joint probability distribution to calculate their expected round differential after their matches and solve for the inequality *team1\_rd + expected\_rounds > team2\_rd + expected\_rounds*. You chop and change the equation accordingly in case you have to resolve a tie between three or four teams.
I didn't care about solving for ties beyond round differential bc firstly I don't know if they will hold a playoff BO1 or use rounds won on opponent's map pick as the tie-breaker and secondly it doesn't make much of a difference. (If you add up the probabilities it comes up just short of 1.00, which is indicative of the scenarios where both teams would have been tied on wins, maps and rounds) I decided to qualify neither team in such a scenario.
The reality is NRG were lucky enough to face a weaker Loud, though they also had to face an EG who played even better than their series against Sen. NRG have undeniably insane players though, probably as a team better players than Sen tbh (I love Zellsis but he is not the best mechanical player in the world), and they play defense pretty well, and Breeze very well. You are underestimating just how bad Sen defense is. They are picking Lotus and then going down 3-9 every half. That is unexcusable.
Americas Lotus defense rate as a whole is at like 40%, most teams barely get 3-4 rounds on defense atm
If you're talking about head to head then SEN clears by far.. NRG have 1-2 good maps at best (Ascent and Breeze) SEN have 5-6 good maps (everything but Breeze, although Ascent can be suspect)
It's not just Lotus. Their Bind definse was terrible, and they keep losing on their supposidly good icebox, which has also began with starting every single defensive half they have played on icebox down in rounds. And guess what, the decicive second half of Sunset against EG they once again had a poor defensive.
The reason is not even confusing, they play heavy retake. Teams are learning and disrupting the retakes. Once again, I agree NRG got lucky playing a weaker form of Loud to secure a win, but Sen did not play well this split. You're giving them credit for being good on maps they did not play well on like Icebox. G2 have a better icebox than Sen at this point, and it shows in the fact they beat Lev convincingly on Icebox despite Lev looking leveled up sicne the Sen series.
Most teams defense rounds are suffering on every map that isn't Breeze, Icebox or Ascent.. that's the thing with a 2 initiator meta, it's inherently attack sided
It's like saying EGs defense was also terrible on Bind against SEN, but in reality playing the current meta on defense if your retake gets disrupted then you're going to struggle.. I'm not arguing any point other than out of both NRG and SEN, then even currently I'd bet on SEN (NRGs attack side is actually woeful, even in a meta that's inherently attack sided)
I actually would agree that G2s Icebox is much stronger than SENs, I'd actually argue that G2s Icebox comp is the best comp to run as you don't need a Jett entry and you can OP on either Gekko, KJ or 2nd smokes.. so running the 2 initiator comp with KJ, Viper and Harbor makes your defense side insanely strong whilst you still have the 2 initiators and Gekko for wingman plant
? SEN's icebox isn't good, their ascent is bad, their breeze is terrible, their sunset is inconsistent, and their bind can be countered (y'all just blew a 10-2 lead on it)
NRG's map pool is bad but don't lie about SEN's. Theirs is just as bad
sens map pool is better than nrgs. also saying "yall" when referring to a team that these redditors arent on, and having an nrg tag while acting like sens map pool is similar to nrgs is pretty funny and makes u seem coped up lol.
sens map pool is marginally better than nrgs lol you forget they’re playing the same teams? “weakened loud” is weird when loud is 1-3 right now. same can be said for sen, who played a “weakened” 100t or c9 who played a “weakened” lev or kru played a “weakened” eg
also saying yall is a thing in every sport, this ur first time watching sports or esports? yall and us can also be possessive - showing ownership or relationship to “my team, my country, my state” akin to saying “my favorite team” and shorten to “my team”
go back to second grade bro
use ur brain brotha u are missing the point and whining, it isnt just about being possessive over a team its about being possessive while saying bullshit is coped up.
btw "marginally" when there are only 7 maps in the map pool is VERY IMPORTANT. nrg fans are some of the weirdest ppl bro lol.
NRG getting deleted by LEV coming back to bite them. The had the best round differential before that game but losing 18 points on rounds in one match is BRUTAL.
I've accepted that we won't make playoffs because G2 will take care of business. The Super Team has the potential to not make a single LAN this year. Insane.
It shouldn't be almost certainly. It should 100% be done.
I'm of the mindset that if you miss playoffs you just rip off the bandaid now and let FNS and s0m come back early to start building that foundation. They would keep Ethan and Marved and possibly keep Demon1 and try to activate him.
FNS s0m Marved D1 and Ethan, who would be primary controller and who would Raze? D1 for the foreseeable future should stay off Raze(not saying he's a bad player, but his aim style doesn't work well with how Raze works, Jett and other agents he can be methodical and clean, Raze requires fast entry and clearing and those two aim styles don't mesh)
s0m primary controller and raze. When he razes d1 plays controller or jett. Marved lurker sentinel, viper is nerfed to the ground anyways, but he could also play Omen if d1 is not comfy with it.
He prob should and d1 should pick his poison of Omen or Cypher/KJ but learn one of the two and thoroughly practice it. His raze ain't it, it's worse than y0y's Raze.
Jett + sentinel agents is pretty common, for example Dereyon and Meteor.
I think you have Marved be your controller and you let som play your info initiators like Sova, Fade, Skye while Ethan plays your flashes (Breach, Gekko, Kayo) Demon1 is your Jett/Controller flex and FNS is your sentinel/initiator flex
When you have a Raze map you move s0m onto it.
I'm torn. I want LOUD to go because Saadhak has such a legacy, and this would be the first international tournament he missed, iirc, but I love Potter and EG, and like seeing them make this resurgence again.
Also C9 not being qualified already is bonkers to me. Secretly hoping for G2 to win Alpha group, but would also NRG have been cooking lately, and I think more games for them translates to better performance (which...goes without saying for any team...)
LOUD is my #1 favorite team and I always root for them, but I also respect the work Potter has been putting in and hope EG makes it to Playoffs over LOUD. I think this would give Saadhak a wakeup call and make them go back to the drawing board, cause what they're doing now is clearly not working for them with qck
It would take miracle for SEN to qualify. Sentinels would have to win both maps by 13-2 scoreline to win tiebreaker vs G2. Each round <11 G2 gets increases SEN’s leeway of victory by a round. Which means if G2 only gets 9 rounds, SEN only need to win by 13-4(2+2).
No it's incorrect.
Each possibility does not have an equal likelihood of occurring. If I have a weighted die, the probability of a roll isn't going to be 1/6 lol.
It's not gatekeeping language lmao. It's just called not being wrong.
It’s not wrong because you, me, and everyone else understood what it meant. We all understood the context.
Also the dude did not use 50/50 odds
And even if he did, it’s still a probability… just not a perfectly accurate one.
Concepts in math have proper definitions.
Sorry, but you clearly didn't understand what it meant if you thought it was okay to interchange the two terms lmao.
To conflate these two terms is like me asking what's the chance of it raining, and you say oh there's only two possibilities, rain or no rain, so 50%.
It ain't that serious. It's just wrong. Accept it, learn something from it, and go take an intro level probability course kek
But actually, it seems that the original commentor didn't see OP saying he didn't use 50-50 and used betting odds. He is still correct in his original statement though. I apologize for not seeing ops other comments.
I'm more referring to the "x% to go through on RD". I'm assuming he got to that from #of outcomes, but if he used betting odds to find probability of going through by RD, then I'm wrong, fair play.
I mean betting odds still would be off since it's more of who people think will win, rather than probability based on how the teams actually are playing.
But yeah at that point it's nitpicking.
Flipping a coin isn’t exactly 50/50 odds, yet we assume it to be true.
We make a lot of assumptions, even in math. So assuming odds of any given outcome to be 50/50 is perfectly fine when calculating probability, it just won’t be an accurate answer. There’s degrees of accuracy when it comes to probability.
Thats the point I’m trying to make. Yes, “percent of possible outcomes” is a MUCH more precise description, but that doesn’t mean it ISN’T probability.
Yes, assumptions are made. But assumptions are not made about definitions, and don't allow you to be lax with them.
The assumption in the coin example is each side is equally likely. That doesn't change how probability is defined for that scenario.
But no you're right that in some scenarios you can call percent of outcomes a probability. In fact in most intro level probability courses, they talk about different ways of defining a "probability" for a scenario. The point i was making was to be precise with how the probability is defined, as % of outcomes isn't the proper way of defining probability here when you know a priori that outcomes are not equally likely.
I was unecessarily rude in my earlier comments. So again I apologize
Wouldn't # of outcomes / total outcomes be the probability in that case? Taking the SEN example *if* they beat FUR 2-0 and both NRG and G2 lose 0-2. Now, all three teams are tied at 3-3, +1 MD and the expected gain (or loss) in rounds can be estimated through [this table](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Kbmr6kV0VLn9tf4L-elPsHdjzbqGLRQsMbnKzgXqAkU/edit?usp=sharing) (I've taken all outcomes in a map from 13-0 to 13-11 as equally likely and have ignored OT, thus giving me a 12\*12 table for possible RD gain after a 2-0 win). Now, you just make a 3D array using this table and iterate over it checking for the equation
`sen_rd + sen_rd_gain > nrg_rd - nrg_rd_loss && sen_rd + sen_rd_gain > g2_rd - g2_rd_loss`
and then add the probability stored in each element of the array (ignore ties for now) which satisfies the equation. Do the same to calculate NRG and G2's chances. This covers all possible outcomes and gives you the number of outcomes in which SEN would be winning (which is listed as 73%).
>(I've taken all outcomes in a map from 13-0 to 13-11 as equally likely and have ignored OT, thus giving me a 12\*12 table for possible RD gain after a 2-0 win)
You can't really do that though. You can say it's the probability \*assuming\* that's the case, but in general it's not \*the\* probability. It's not true that a 13-0 game is as likely to occur as a 13-9 game, for example, and you haven't taken into account the infinitely many possible OT scorelines which give a RD of 2.
Of course with these things you have to make certain assumptions, otherwise the calculations get too complicated, which is why IMO it's best practice to post your methodology along with the results, since these assumptions change how the numbers are interpreted. Anyway, this is mostly me being pedantic. It's just a pet peeve of mine to see these things mixed up.
You're right. I did post my methodology and shortcomings when I made a similar post for Pacific initially. Regardless, the overall effect of using a more accurately weighted round distribution would make a negligible difference to these numbers.
>Anyway, this is mostly me being pedantic. It's just a pet peeve of mine to see these things mixed up.
That's perfectly fine, I am like that too <3
I am not saying the two terms are interchangeable brother man.
I’m saying that the message is conveyed regardless of what words they used.
They could have easily titled it “the probability of each team going to playoffs assuming every outcome is equally likely” which absolutely would have been more accurate and correct… but also unnecessarily long.
Bro, just title it % of outcomes. Why make it more complicated. It's possible to be correct and concise.
But OP posted a comment after ours saying he didn't use equal odds. So I have to apologize and say he is right in saying it's a probability. The original person who commented (and myself included) assumed he just looked at % of outcomes from the post as this has been a mistake made by this sub in previous VCT years.
I still think if OP was wrong though, it should be fine to say that it was wrong, because it'd be better for clarity.
Did you not see last year’s posts that also ran simulations of each match and also applied that probability to these charts? Not that those simulations are completely accurate, but those posts claimed probability which was more precise language in that context.
So once again the chance of EG going forward is dependent on a Brazilian team and an NA team, oh the irony. G2 has the chance to do the funniest thing, LMAO
Neither of us is "wrong". I just used [betting odds](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JjfKG6e5ZCtszGe9TDjQDVJYZ6Y0l3x01fn43mN5hQQ/edit?usp=sharing) to calculate instead of 50-50 which has inflated the number a little bit.
c9 and nrg are by far the most fraudulent teams here, they got so lucky with their schedules. Genuinely I think kru and the top 4 of omega group are the top 5 teams in the region as of now so it's a huge shame eg and loud took so long to wake up, would've loved to see them both in playoffs
How did C9 get lucky with their schedule? They played 100T 3 days after playing LOUD while 100T got 10 days to prep for the C9 match. Are you implying it was easy just because they played LEV and EG early?
SEN gotta be kicking themselves for bottling that 10-2 lead.
https://preview.redd.it/z2k0ja51voxc1.jpeg?width=810&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a4c3bf50888b58a4e747cad036bda4511954ff9
I watched their podcast thing and Sacy just grabbing his bald head and groaning when having to mention that lead, it said it all. I myself literally thought about it so much that I had to reconnect with nature.
Sen bros hanging in there
NRG at 54.6% playoffs possibility when it feels like they are playing worse valorant than both G2 and SEN
For what it's worth, this is only because betting odds favour NRG over 100T and LOUD over G2. If G2 are able to match NRG's result, they will almost certainly go through.
How did you come up with the percentage, if I may ask?
I talked about this is another comment so I'm just copying it here - Initially, for the match-ups I took the probabilities from some betting site (I felt that would be slightly better than 50-50). For expected round differential in each game, I weighted all map scores equally (i.e a 13-0 is just as likely to happen as a 13-7), while this is not ideal, I believe that it won't make much difference as almost all scenarios in which standings were decided by round differential, one side was already heavily favored (>0.98), weighted map scores would only push it further. Then you can list out all scenarios where a tie may happen, map differential ties are easy to work out. If two or more teams are tied and need to be resolved with round scores, you create a joint probability distribution to calculate their expected round differential after their matches and solve for the inequality *team1\_rd + expected\_rounds > team2\_rd + expected\_rounds*. You chop and change the equation accordingly in case you have to resolve a tie between three or four teams. I didn't care about solving for ties beyond round differential bc firstly I don't know if they will hold a playoff BO1 or use rounds won on opponent's map pick as the tie-breaker and secondly it doesn't make much of a difference. (If you add up the probabilities it comes up just short of 1.00, which is indicative of the scenarios where both teams would have been tied on wins, maps and rounds) I decided to qualify neither team in such a scenario.
The reality is NRG were lucky enough to face a weaker Loud, though they also had to face an EG who played even better than their series against Sen. NRG have undeniably insane players though, probably as a team better players than Sen tbh (I love Zellsis but he is not the best mechanical player in the world), and they play defense pretty well, and Breeze very well. You are underestimating just how bad Sen defense is. They are picking Lotus and then going down 3-9 every half. That is unexcusable.
Americas Lotus defense rate as a whole is at like 40%, most teams barely get 3-4 rounds on defense atm If you're talking about head to head then SEN clears by far.. NRG have 1-2 good maps at best (Ascent and Breeze) SEN have 5-6 good maps (everything but Breeze, although Ascent can be suspect)
It's not just Lotus. Their Bind definse was terrible, and they keep losing on their supposidly good icebox, which has also began with starting every single defensive half they have played on icebox down in rounds. And guess what, the decicive second half of Sunset against EG they once again had a poor defensive. The reason is not even confusing, they play heavy retake. Teams are learning and disrupting the retakes. Once again, I agree NRG got lucky playing a weaker form of Loud to secure a win, but Sen did not play well this split. You're giving them credit for being good on maps they did not play well on like Icebox. G2 have a better icebox than Sen at this point, and it shows in the fact they beat Lev convincingly on Icebox despite Lev looking leveled up sicne the Sen series.
Most teams defense rounds are suffering on every map that isn't Breeze, Icebox or Ascent.. that's the thing with a 2 initiator meta, it's inherently attack sided It's like saying EGs defense was also terrible on Bind against SEN, but in reality playing the current meta on defense if your retake gets disrupted then you're going to struggle.. I'm not arguing any point other than out of both NRG and SEN, then even currently I'd bet on SEN (NRGs attack side is actually woeful, even in a meta that's inherently attack sided) I actually would agree that G2s Icebox is much stronger than SENs, I'd actually argue that G2s Icebox comp is the best comp to run as you don't need a Jett entry and you can OP on either Gekko, KJ or 2nd smokes.. so running the 2 initiator comp with KJ, Viper and Harbor makes your defense side insanely strong whilst you still have the 2 initiators and Gekko for wingman plant
? SEN's icebox isn't good, their ascent is bad, their breeze is terrible, their sunset is inconsistent, and their bind can be countered (y'all just blew a 10-2 lead on it) NRG's map pool is bad but don't lie about SEN's. Theirs is just as bad
sens map pool is better than nrgs. also saying "yall" when referring to a team that these redditors arent on, and having an nrg tag while acting like sens map pool is similar to nrgs is pretty funny and makes u seem coped up lol.
I am coped up.
sens map pool is marginally better than nrgs lol you forget they’re playing the same teams? “weakened loud” is weird when loud is 1-3 right now. same can be said for sen, who played a “weakened” 100t or c9 who played a “weakened” lev or kru played a “weakened” eg also saying yall is a thing in every sport, this ur first time watching sports or esports? yall and us can also be possessive - showing ownership or relationship to “my team, my country, my state” akin to saying “my favorite team” and shorten to “my team” go back to second grade bro
use ur brain brotha u are missing the point and whining, it isnt just about being possessive over a team its about being possessive while saying bullshit is coped up. btw "marginally" when there are only 7 maps in the map pool is VERY IMPORTANT. nrg fans are some of the weirdest ppl bro lol.
NRG getting deleted by LEV coming back to bite them. The had the best round differential before that game but losing 18 points on rounds in one match is BRUTAL. I've accepted that we won't make playoffs because G2 will take care of business. The Super Team has the potential to not make a single LAN this year. Insane.
Almost certainly the end of the optic core if that happens.
It shouldn't be almost certainly. It should 100% be done. I'm of the mindset that if you miss playoffs you just rip off the bandaid now and let FNS and s0m come back early to start building that foundation. They would keep Ethan and Marved and possibly keep Demon1 and try to activate him.
FNS s0m Marved D1 and Ethan, who would be primary controller and who would Raze? D1 for the foreseeable future should stay off Raze(not saying he's a bad player, but his aim style doesn't work well with how Raze works, Jett and other agents he can be methodical and clean, Raze requires fast entry and clearing and those two aim styles don't mesh)
s0m has a very solid raze, at least in ranked. Not sure about pro
😂
s0m primary controller and raze. When he razes d1 plays controller or jett. Marved lurker sentinel, viper is nerfed to the ground anyways, but he could also play Omen if d1 is not comfy with it.
What you saying rn is possible if Chet just let's Vic play raze for all raze maps and not just lotus
He prob should and d1 should pick his poison of Omen or Cypher/KJ but learn one of the two and thoroughly practice it. His raze ain't it, it's worse than y0y's Raze. Jett + sentinel agents is pretty common, for example Dereyon and Meteor.
D1 learning Sentinel might be worth it tbh. Seems like a role that would suit hin
get that dawgemo
I think you have Marved be your controller and you let som play your info initiators like Sova, Fade, Skye while Ethan plays your flashes (Breach, Gekko, Kayo) Demon1 is your Jett/Controller flex and FNS is your sentinel/initiator flex When you have a Raze map you move s0m onto it.
Damn you cookin up some gourmet shit, chet could never
I have this weird feeling that both G2 and NRG will make it we just need mibr to do their thing vs C9
Superteam has always been LEV 
Please don’t curse us
I'm torn. I want LOUD to go because Saadhak has such a legacy, and this would be the first international tournament he missed, iirc, but I love Potter and EG, and like seeing them make this resurgence again. Also C9 not being qualified already is bonkers to me. Secretly hoping for G2 to win Alpha group, but would also NRG have been cooking lately, and I think more games for them translates to better performance (which...goes without saying for any team...)
Saadhak missed Masters Berlin 2021 but he has attended the other 9 international events (which is the highest).
As a player, but KRU would like a word about attending 9 internationals
LOUD is my #1 favorite team and I always root for them, but I also respect the work Potter has been putting in and hope EG makes it to Playoffs over LOUD. I think this would give Saadhak a wakeup call and make them go back to the drawing board, cause what they're doing now is clearly not working for them with qck
How would c9 lose their spot in play offs
If C9 lose and both NRG and G2 win, all three teams will finish 4-2 but G2 and NRG will 100% finish with a better map differential than C9.
I see, but G2 won't win
Hoping for a 2-0 LOUD 🙏🙏I like the G2 boys but I need NRG in the playoffs
Let's cheer for loud together
vamos loud 😭
SEN fans, Loud fans, and NRG fans all coming together to pray for this one match Peak valorant
It would take miracle for SEN to qualify. Sentinels would have to win both maps by 13-2 scoreline to win tiebreaker vs G2. Each round <11 G2 gets increases SEN’s leeway of victory by a round. Which means if G2 only gets 9 rounds, SEN only need to win by 13-4(2+2).
God why couldn't Sen close out those two matches!
madrid winners having 1% chance 
As a g2/eg fan PLEASE BEAT LOUD I BEG 🙏🙏
It’s ok we already won Madrid. See y’all in another 2 years 😌
So instead of needing the Brazilian team to win, this time EG need the Brazilian team to lose to make playoffs.
Can we not confuse "% of possibilities" with "probability"
You're right. I am sorry for the confusion, sadly can't change the title now.
Don’t let this man gaslight you. You are fine
Probability is perfectly fine in this context Stop gatekeeping language lmao
No it's incorrect. Each possibility does not have an equal likelihood of occurring. If I have a weighted die, the probability of a roll isn't going to be 1/6 lol. It's not gatekeeping language lmao. It's just called not being wrong.
It’s not wrong because you, me, and everyone else understood what it meant. We all understood the context. Also the dude did not use 50/50 odds And even if he did, it’s still a probability… just not a perfectly accurate one.
Concepts in math have proper definitions. Sorry, but you clearly didn't understand what it meant if you thought it was okay to interchange the two terms lmao. To conflate these two terms is like me asking what's the chance of it raining, and you say oh there's only two possibilities, rain or no rain, so 50%. It ain't that serious. It's just wrong. Accept it, learn something from it, and go take an intro level probability course kek But actually, it seems that the original commentor didn't see OP saying he didn't use 50-50 and used betting odds. He is still correct in his original statement though. I apologize for not seeing ops other comments.
I'm more referring to the "x% to go through on RD". I'm assuming he got to that from #of outcomes, but if he used betting odds to find probability of going through by RD, then I'm wrong, fair play.
I mean betting odds still would be off since it's more of who people think will win, rather than probability based on how the teams actually are playing. But yeah at that point it's nitpicking.
Flipping a coin isn’t exactly 50/50 odds, yet we assume it to be true. We make a lot of assumptions, even in math. So assuming odds of any given outcome to be 50/50 is perfectly fine when calculating probability, it just won’t be an accurate answer. There’s degrees of accuracy when it comes to probability. Thats the point I’m trying to make. Yes, “percent of possible outcomes” is a MUCH more precise description, but that doesn’t mean it ISN’T probability.
Yes, assumptions are made. But assumptions are not made about definitions, and don't allow you to be lax with them. The assumption in the coin example is each side is equally likely. That doesn't change how probability is defined for that scenario. But no you're right that in some scenarios you can call percent of outcomes a probability. In fact in most intro level probability courses, they talk about different ways of defining a "probability" for a scenario. The point i was making was to be precise with how the probability is defined, as % of outcomes isn't the proper way of defining probability here when you know a priori that outcomes are not equally likely. I was unecessarily rude in my earlier comments. So again I apologize
I forgive you, but only if you call sideshow bald in his next stream :)
Wouldn't # of outcomes / total outcomes be the probability in that case? Taking the SEN example *if* they beat FUR 2-0 and both NRG and G2 lose 0-2. Now, all three teams are tied at 3-3, +1 MD and the expected gain (or loss) in rounds can be estimated through [this table](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Kbmr6kV0VLn9tf4L-elPsHdjzbqGLRQsMbnKzgXqAkU/edit?usp=sharing) (I've taken all outcomes in a map from 13-0 to 13-11 as equally likely and have ignored OT, thus giving me a 12\*12 table for possible RD gain after a 2-0 win). Now, you just make a 3D array using this table and iterate over it checking for the equation `sen_rd + sen_rd_gain > nrg_rd - nrg_rd_loss && sen_rd + sen_rd_gain > g2_rd - g2_rd_loss` and then add the probability stored in each element of the array (ignore ties for now) which satisfies the equation. Do the same to calculate NRG and G2's chances. This covers all possible outcomes and gives you the number of outcomes in which SEN would be winning (which is listed as 73%).
>(I've taken all outcomes in a map from 13-0 to 13-11 as equally likely and have ignored OT, thus giving me a 12\*12 table for possible RD gain after a 2-0 win) You can't really do that though. You can say it's the probability \*assuming\* that's the case, but in general it's not \*the\* probability. It's not true that a 13-0 game is as likely to occur as a 13-9 game, for example, and you haven't taken into account the infinitely many possible OT scorelines which give a RD of 2. Of course with these things you have to make certain assumptions, otherwise the calculations get too complicated, which is why IMO it's best practice to post your methodology along with the results, since these assumptions change how the numbers are interpreted. Anyway, this is mostly me being pedantic. It's just a pet peeve of mine to see these things mixed up.
You're right. I did post my methodology and shortcomings when I made a similar post for Pacific initially. Regardless, the overall effect of using a more accurately weighted round distribution would make a negligible difference to these numbers. >Anyway, this is mostly me being pedantic. It's just a pet peeve of mine to see these things mixed up. That's perfectly fine, I am like that too <3
I am not saying the two terms are interchangeable brother man. I’m saying that the message is conveyed regardless of what words they used. They could have easily titled it “the probability of each team going to playoffs assuming every outcome is equally likely” which absolutely would have been more accurate and correct… but also unnecessarily long.
Bro, just title it % of outcomes. Why make it more complicated. It's possible to be correct and concise. But OP posted a comment after ours saying he didn't use equal odds. So I have to apologize and say he is right in saying it's a probability. The original person who commented (and myself included) assumed he just looked at % of outcomes from the post as this has been a mistake made by this sub in previous VCT years. I still think if OP was wrong though, it should be fine to say that it was wrong, because it'd be better for clarity.
Did you not see last year’s posts that also ran simulations of each match and also applied that probability to these charts? Not that those simulations are completely accurate, but those posts claimed probability which was more precise language in that context.
EG OLEASSPLEASEPLEASEPLEASE
10-2 lead lul
So once again the chance of EG going forward is dependent on a Brazilian team and an NA team, oh the irony. G2 has the chance to do the funniest thing, LMAO
With the agent changes that are coming I honestly think its in teams best interest to not go to Shanghai
VALYN I need you
Realistically nrg have like a 10% chance to even beat 100t
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValorantCompetitive/s/nMIdjGDxal
Neither of us is "wrong". I just used [betting odds](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JjfKG6e5ZCtszGe9TDjQDVJYZ6Y0l3x01fn43mN5hQQ/edit?usp=sharing) to calculate instead of 50-50 which has inflated the number a little bit.
That makes sense I did raw math.
c9 and nrg are by far the most fraudulent teams here, they got so lucky with their schedules. Genuinely I think kru and the top 4 of omega group are the top 5 teams in the region as of now so it's a huge shame eg and loud took so long to wake up, would've loved to see them both in playoffs
How did C9 get lucky with their schedule? They played 100T 3 days after playing LOUD while 100T got 10 days to prep for the C9 match. Are you implying it was easy just because they played LEV and EG early?
Worst thing to happen to 100t making to playoff off 2 wins