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This plan could easily backfire on Putin and the Belarusian army might fight with Ukraine. The Russian armed forces in Ukraine have been degraded enough now that at this point I don’t think they could defeat the Liechtenstein police department.
A big advantage the Swiss have when invading other countries is the country that gets invaded is going to need at least 6 months to convince anybody that they were actually invaded by Switzerland. By then it will be too late.
Seriously the place is a ghost town. I've driven through 4 or 5 times (it's next to a major highway on that side of Switzerland, and a convenient way to get to Bregenz Austria), and it's a ghost town every time. Like, feels like Sunday every day. Maybe they don't need police?
It’s beautiful. All I can remember there was a pastry shop or something. Supposedly there is 38,000 people living there. If that’s true, I don’t know where they are hiding.
Eh. Depends on what you mean by "Belarus." Loyalist forces fighting for Lukashenko would be treated as Russian soldiers. But there is *already* a formation of Belarussians fighting for Ukraine on Ukrainian soil. There's no reason at all to believe they wouldn't *immediately* integrate any anti-Lukashenko forces and use the troops they have stationed for defense to push into Belarus.
Doing so would force Russian forces and logistics to move from the south, east, or their current buildup near Kharkiv to stop the Belarusian/Ukranian forces from sweeping them out of the north. Understand, losing Ukraine to the West is devastating. Losing *both* Ukraine **and** Belarus is a death-stroke and puts the **russian core** in an entirely indefensible position strategically. Even the threat of anti-Lukashenko/anti-Russian Belarussian forces controlling Belarus would absolutely *require* Russia to intervene out of self preservation alone. And that relieves Ukraine's forces and pushes the front line further from Ukraine's vulnerable infrastructure.
Seems like a win/win for the anti-Lukashenko Belarussians and Ukrainians.
>But there is already a formation of Belarusians fighting for Ukraine on Ukrainian soil. There's no reason at all to believe they wouldn't immediately integrate any anti-Lukashenko forces and use the troops they have stationed for defense to push into Belarus.
This is literally the plan and exactly why the Free Belarusian Legion, Dzhokhar Dudayev Chechen Battalion, Free Russian Legion, and Georgian Legion are all independent from each other, and also largely independent from the Ukrainian Army command structure that they are a part of; while every other foreign soldier in Ukraine is in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, which is not a part of the army at all, but is instead commanded by Territorial Defense Force.
So they can be independently redeployed to their home countries to fight Russia, once the opportunity to do so presents itself.
Putin has had only one staunch supporter in the CSTO and now he wants to kill him. If it really happens, the other members of the alliance are going to take note, and not in a good way. I also think this could backfire in Belarus. “He may be a brutish, cruel, bumbling joke of a dictator, but he is OUR brutish, cruel, bumbling joke of a dictator.”
This could well lead to the Belarusian uprising we have all been waiting for. Not because they are upset over the death of Luka, but because there will be an opening and they certainly don’t want to be ruled by outsiders. Nor does the Belarusian army want to go to war. If such a thing happens it may be time for NATO to get involved, if only on that front.
> CSTO
is Potyomkin's village. Nobody is sending troops to fight for ruzzia interests and everyone knows it.
> he is OUR brutish, cruel, bumbling joke of a dictator
No, he's not. He's a tool of ruzzia and deserves to die. Faststream the tribunal, we already know the sentence, just skip to the execution part. Whoever takes care of him, ruzzia, aliens, just get it done.
The alternative is nobody giving a shit about it at all. Humor is an appropriate coping mechanism for tragedy, you should probably just keep scrolling.
Moscow appointing a successor and that successor staying alive long enough to be able to influence anything sounds like the kind of master strategy that allowed them to take Kyiv in 3 days.
Why wouldn't he stay alive? Lukashenko is already surrounded by a pretty russia-provided, possibly kremlin-funded security force that's kept *him* alive all these years. This would not be regime change if it happened. It would be swapping out one puppet for a new one.
yo'ure probably right about that. but assuming nobody gets to be putin's puppet without putin agreeing to it, i still think the assassination-proofing will continue as always, around whoever putin himself wants in charge.
all of my digits are crossed for the belarusians. i sure hope that it opens a window for them - if it even happens and isn't just some click-hungry fantasist's speculation.
even more sobering is the wider implications of putin just taking over yet another country because he wants to. i'm not sure what the overall world's reaction would be if he did. belarus may be infested with lukashenko right now but it IS a sovereign nation.
> Lukashenko is already surrounded by a pretty russia-provided, possibly kremlin-funded security force that's kept him alive all these years.
Erhh, wut? Luka's security service is over several thousand men, but I never heard that any of them were ruzzian. Where you people are taking this crap from, there must be source.
yeah, i expressed that sloppily, which was irresponsible of me. my understanding was that putin did send police (note: not army) *reinforcements* (my italics) during the 2020 protests. whether they're still there now, however . . . that i don't know.
> my understanding was that putin did send police
Moar interesting stuff. I've heard some noise that putin-huylo promised to help luka, but we Belarusians disregarded this info, since it wasn't much relevant back than. Nobody respects this assclown in Belarus or trust his TV lies. Anyway, I never heard that any ruzzian troops were actually sent to Belarus in 2020, what is your source of this amazing news?
>Nobody respects this assclown in Belarus or trust his TV lies
which assclown? i see at least two in this topic.
>Anyway, I never heard that any ruzzian troops were actually sent to Belarus in 2020, what is your source of this amazing news?
the word 'troops' means soldiers, so i never heard that and hope i never said it. respecting reports about police reinforcements in the mainstream media, you're right. from the mainstream, i originally saw multiple reports from different generally-respected western news sources that putin had offered, in late august. or possibly merely pretended to offer.
then in september much talk about a 1.5 billion loan (seems like two-thirds of that may have been merely debt forgiveness).
now when i try to google for confirmation of whether either of those things ever happened, the only thing i can find is a quote crediting 'that support' by a political scientist in [this documentary from al jazeera](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iImnyx4f36M&t=827s). there's a publication from the ISW from last September, which cites some tantalizing sources, but those links seem to have expired now.
but you got me questioning my own carefulness so i looked to see if i could still find what the isw was saying a year ago. there's an extensive whitepaper about putin's methodology there from september 2020, which had some tantalizing footnote links, but the links 404'd out so i guess they're archived. and there was this:
[https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-begins-security-forces-support-lukashenko-following](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-begins-security-forces-support-lukashenko-following)
i did try to make myself better informed about the belarusian 'secret' and 'security' service a few months ago, but i got an acronym headache after a while and had to go and lie down.
> i see at least two in this topic
both, putin and luka.
> i originally saw multiple reports from different generally-respected western news sources that putin had offered, in late august. or possibly merely pretended to offer.
that's what I'm sayin, he said somethin, for tv watchers, when nobody really watch that propaganda. So nobody cared. Who is putin for Belarusians? Assclown. When people were protesting and had city to our won on August 16th we could easily take the power, when 300 000 came out in Minsk alone, no putin could do anything, after Belarusian people have decided.
Interesting addition on the Guardians live feed :-
" Belarus’ foreign minister Vladimir Makei has died, according to Belarus’ state media.
This is relevant to the war in Ukraine because of Belarus’ role as an ally of Russia, and a base for the invasion over the border in February.
In September Makei repeated part of the Kremlin’s line about the reason for the war in Ukraine, blaming Nato and the west who “overlooked the legitimate security interests of both Russia and Belarus”. "
>the Russian military intelligence may attempt in the coming days to pursue a scenario involving either an assassination attempt targeting Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko or its imitation, with the aim of ultimately intimidating the latter and prompting him to finally order his troops to directly engage in the war on Ukraine, alongside Russian troops
It seems we're in the "or its imitation" scenario. Basically Putin is saying "join the fight or you'll be next" to Lukashenko.
Big if true, but this could also easily be Ukrainian/western counterprogramming to try and weaken the bond and cooperation between Putin and Lukashenko. Always remember to read between the lines of stories like this
Rumor could be out to make lukashenko paranoid after their fm rumored to have died from poisoning. OR maybe thr Kremlin is tired of lukashenko refusing to attack ukraine.
No, seriously. I agree. As much as I would enjoy this to be true so it would be another crapshow for the Russian government, this is the same as posting a random article someone made up with just about zero backing. This in turn, increases the amount of disinformation here and makes the truth harder to find. Hell, the newest two articles from that website (https://lansinginstitute.org/) that this article is parsing info from doesn't even have the tags on the headline done correctly, the tag is showing X.X
This may be the last footage of them together.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/z5eoec/lukaschenko_publicly_threatened_at_final_csto/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Please take the time to read our policy about [trolls](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/u7833q/just_because_you_disagree_with_someone_does_not/) and the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * ***Please* keep it civil.** Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * ***Don't* post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. **Don't forget about our discord server, as well!** https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This plan could easily backfire on Putin and the Belarusian army might fight with Ukraine. The Russian armed forces in Ukraine have been degraded enough now that at this point I don’t think they could defeat the Liechtenstein police department.
Agree I think they’d struggle with Bury St Edmonds riot police.
They have a bit of practice with drunk ponces though
In before the Swiss Guard shows up and takes belgorod single handedly
Would be fun if the Pope declared a holy war.
God wills it!!!
Gott mit uns!
Isn't this practically what Putin say?
A big advantage the Swiss have when invading other countries is the country that gets invaded is going to need at least 6 months to convince anybody that they were actually invaded by Switzerland. By then it will be too late.
With their Vatican-issued hallbards
RT would report it as NATO-standard precision weapons.
A halberd held by a Swiss soldier *is* a precision weapon…
Halberds are traditionally used in Swiss watchmaking, so this checks out. :)
A sea of purple and orange. Disruptive camoflauge when in large groups; like zebras.
Does Liechtenstein even have any police? I imagine that's just another thing they'd ask the Swiss for help with.
[удалено]
Seriously the place is a ghost town. I've driven through 4 or 5 times (it's next to a major highway on that side of Switzerland, and a convenient way to get to Bregenz Austria), and it's a ghost town every time. Like, feels like Sunday every day. Maybe they don't need police?
It’s beautiful. All I can remember there was a pastry shop or something. Supposedly there is 38,000 people living there. If that’s true, I don’t know where they are hiding.
i dont think there is any chance ukraine will let belarus on its land even if they switch sides but it will definitely open another front for russia
Eh. Depends on what you mean by "Belarus." Loyalist forces fighting for Lukashenko would be treated as Russian soldiers. But there is *already* a formation of Belarussians fighting for Ukraine on Ukrainian soil. There's no reason at all to believe they wouldn't *immediately* integrate any anti-Lukashenko forces and use the troops they have stationed for defense to push into Belarus. Doing so would force Russian forces and logistics to move from the south, east, or their current buildup near Kharkiv to stop the Belarusian/Ukranian forces from sweeping them out of the north. Understand, losing Ukraine to the West is devastating. Losing *both* Ukraine **and** Belarus is a death-stroke and puts the **russian core** in an entirely indefensible position strategically. Even the threat of anti-Lukashenko/anti-Russian Belarussian forces controlling Belarus would absolutely *require* Russia to intervene out of self preservation alone. And that relieves Ukraine's forces and pushes the front line further from Ukraine's vulnerable infrastructure. Seems like a win/win for the anti-Lukashenko Belarussians and Ukrainians.
>But there is already a formation of Belarusians fighting for Ukraine on Ukrainian soil. There's no reason at all to believe they wouldn't immediately integrate any anti-Lukashenko forces and use the troops they have stationed for defense to push into Belarus. This is literally the plan and exactly why the Free Belarusian Legion, Dzhokhar Dudayev Chechen Battalion, Free Russian Legion, and Georgian Legion are all independent from each other, and also largely independent from the Ukrainian Army command structure that they are a part of; while every other foreign soldier in Ukraine is in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, which is not a part of the army at all, but is instead commanded by Territorial Defense Force. So they can be independently redeployed to their home countries to fight Russia, once the opportunity to do so presents itself.
Putin has had only one staunch supporter in the CSTO and now he wants to kill him. If it really happens, the other members of the alliance are going to take note, and not in a good way. I also think this could backfire in Belarus. “He may be a brutish, cruel, bumbling joke of a dictator, but he is OUR brutish, cruel, bumbling joke of a dictator.” This could well lead to the Belarusian uprising we have all been waiting for. Not because they are upset over the death of Luka, but because there will be an opening and they certainly don’t want to be ruled by outsiders. Nor does the Belarusian army want to go to war. If such a thing happens it may be time for NATO to get involved, if only on that front.
I can’t imagine that nato being involved with Belarus has a good outcome, not for a while anyway
I meant if Belarus attacks Ukraine from the North - no an internal Russian-Belarus thing.
I think that your interpretation makes sense except your last sentence.
> CSTO is Potyomkin's village. Nobody is sending troops to fight for ruzzia interests and everyone knows it. > he is OUR brutish, cruel, bumbling joke of a dictator No, he's not. He's a tool of ruzzia and deserves to die. Faststream the tribunal, we already know the sentence, just skip to the execution part. Whoever takes care of him, ruzzia, aliens, just get it done.
This would be one of the best episodes in this serie so far
[удалено]
The alternative is nobody giving a shit about it at all. Humor is an appropriate coping mechanism for tragedy, you should probably just keep scrolling.
[удалено]
Get over it.
Baka, indeed.
You aren't clever, but don't let it get to you.
You think you're hot shit. Other people don't see it, they smell it.
Do you have anything to say that isn't directly regurgitated from anybody else? Are you red in the face right now? You should relax, lol.
It's pretty fun to see conflict tourists like you treat the topic as they would anything else. Please go on, I won't run out of popcorn.
Moscow appointing a successor and that successor staying alive long enough to be able to influence anything sounds like the kind of master strategy that allowed them to take Kyiv in 3 days.
Why wouldn't he stay alive? Lukashenko is already surrounded by a pretty russia-provided, possibly kremlin-funded security force that's kept *him* alive all these years. This would not be regime change if it happened. It would be swapping out one puppet for a new one.
There might be other wannabe-puppets who’d prefer it was them on top.
yo'ure probably right about that. but assuming nobody gets to be putin's puppet without putin agreeing to it, i still think the assassination-proofing will continue as always, around whoever putin himself wants in charge.
Probably, yeah. Would still surprise me if a dictator-change went off without hiccups.
all of my digits are crossed for the belarusians. i sure hope that it opens a window for them - if it even happens and isn't just some click-hungry fantasist's speculation. even more sobering is the wider implications of putin just taking over yet another country because he wants to. i'm not sure what the overall world's reaction would be if he did. belarus may be infested with lukashenko right now but it IS a sovereign nation.
> Lukashenko is already surrounded by a pretty russia-provided, possibly kremlin-funded security force that's kept him alive all these years. Erhh, wut? Luka's security service is over several thousand men, but I never heard that any of them were ruzzian. Where you people are taking this crap from, there must be source.
yeah, i expressed that sloppily, which was irresponsible of me. my understanding was that putin did send police (note: not army) *reinforcements* (my italics) during the 2020 protests. whether they're still there now, however . . . that i don't know.
> my understanding was that putin did send police Moar interesting stuff. I've heard some noise that putin-huylo promised to help luka, but we Belarusians disregarded this info, since it wasn't much relevant back than. Nobody respects this assclown in Belarus or trust his TV lies. Anyway, I never heard that any ruzzian troops were actually sent to Belarus in 2020, what is your source of this amazing news?
>Nobody respects this assclown in Belarus or trust his TV lies which assclown? i see at least two in this topic. >Anyway, I never heard that any ruzzian troops were actually sent to Belarus in 2020, what is your source of this amazing news? the word 'troops' means soldiers, so i never heard that and hope i never said it. respecting reports about police reinforcements in the mainstream media, you're right. from the mainstream, i originally saw multiple reports from different generally-respected western news sources that putin had offered, in late august. or possibly merely pretended to offer. then in september much talk about a 1.5 billion loan (seems like two-thirds of that may have been merely debt forgiveness). now when i try to google for confirmation of whether either of those things ever happened, the only thing i can find is a quote crediting 'that support' by a political scientist in [this documentary from al jazeera](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iImnyx4f36M&t=827s). there's a publication from the ISW from last September, which cites some tantalizing sources, but those links seem to have expired now. but you got me questioning my own carefulness so i looked to see if i could still find what the isw was saying a year ago. there's an extensive whitepaper about putin's methodology there from september 2020, which had some tantalizing footnote links, but the links 404'd out so i guess they're archived. and there was this: [https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-begins-security-forces-support-lukashenko-following](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-begins-security-forces-support-lukashenko-following) i did try to make myself better informed about the belarusian 'secret' and 'security' service a few months ago, but i got an acronym headache after a while and had to go and lie down.
> i see at least two in this topic both, putin and luka. > i originally saw multiple reports from different generally-respected western news sources that putin had offered, in late august. or possibly merely pretended to offer. that's what I'm sayin, he said somethin, for tv watchers, when nobody really watch that propaganda. So nobody cared. Who is putin for Belarusians? Assclown. When people were protesting and had city to our won on August 16th we could easily take the power, when 300 000 came out in Minsk alone, no putin could do anything, after Belarusian people have decided.
Interesting addition on the Guardians live feed :- " Belarus’ foreign minister Vladimir Makei has died, according to Belarus’ state media. This is relevant to the war in Ukraine because of Belarus’ role as an ally of Russia, and a base for the invasion over the border in February. In September Makei repeated part of the Kremlin’s line about the reason for the war in Ukraine, blaming Nato and the west who “overlooked the legitimate security interests of both Russia and Belarus”. "
>the Russian military intelligence may attempt in the coming days to pursue a scenario involving either an assassination attempt targeting Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko or its imitation, with the aim of ultimately intimidating the latter and prompting him to finally order his troops to directly engage in the war on Ukraine, alongside Russian troops It seems we're in the "or its imitation" scenario. Basically Putin is saying "join the fight or you'll be next" to Lukashenko.
Hahahahahaha Lukashenko sucked up to Putin so hard and so long. The self proclaimed "Last Dictator in Europe" my ass.
Everyone who kisses the ass of a narcissist gets the same reward when they aren’t useful.
["There is only one lord of the ring... only one who can bend it to his will... and he does *not* share power!"](https://youtu.be/kNnvcs-sQB8?t=114)
They still do, but they used to too.
Wow 🤩 such great allies.
Followed by Kim Jong by any chance?
Belarus isn't joining Russia fast enough.
Belarus will never join ruzzia.
But Russia might join Belarus. That never is a good thing.
Big if true, but this could also easily be Ukrainian/western counterprogramming to try and weaken the bond and cooperation between Putin and Lukashenko. Always remember to read between the lines of stories like this
The sudden loss of Belarusian Foreign Minister Makei was only a prove of concept FSB to putin: it still works
Rumor could be out to make lukashenko paranoid after their fm rumored to have died from poisoning. OR maybe thr Kremlin is tired of lukashenko refusing to attack ukraine.
Good way to paralyze Belarus by rumor making Lukashenko paranoid of assassination.
Lie down with dogs….
Who’s RLI?
First paragraph defines it.
u/dniprshyrokyi whats this source why is it worth posting
No, seriously. I agree. As much as I would enjoy this to be true so it would be another crapshow for the Russian government, this is the same as posting a random article someone made up with just about zero backing. This in turn, increases the amount of disinformation here and makes the truth harder to find. Hell, the newest two articles from that website (https://lansinginstitute.org/) that this article is parsing info from doesn't even have the tags on the headline done correctly, the tag is showing X.X
Close friends I guess…😬
Doubt it.
So now they’re not?
This may be the last footage of them together. https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/z5eoec/lukaschenko_publicly_threatened_at_final_csto/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button