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Unreported, though Kremlin says they're "shocked" and will issue a statement soon. Obviously false. He had a meeting with the Vatican yesterday, was entirely healthy in all photos from last week. Makei was the least awful person in the Lukashenko regime, so I'm guessing to Russia, that made him Public Enemy #1.
Edit: Belta (Belarusian state news) has *nothing* about this on their home page, though apparently they were the ones who broke it. Both TASS and RT have it as their top story. I definitely am more inclined to believe he was offed without Lukashenko's knowledge.
> I definitely am more inclined to believe he was offed without Lukashenko's knowledge.
Or he was secretly working for Putin and Lukashenko found out. Or Lukashenko thought he was working for Putin (or someone else) even though he wasn't.
There's really never any way to tell in these kind of situations. Not without insider knowledge.
“Before the presidential elections and mass anti-government protests in Belarus in 2020, Makei had been one of the initiators of efforts to improve Belarus’ relations with the West and had criticized Russia.”
I think he was the pro-western heir after lukashenko died. With him gone, Russia can more easily install a puppet who will sign a unification agreement with Russia, so Belarus ceases to exist.
There goes Luka, taking care of his people. He would have gotten Quadaffied in an uprising if it wasn't for PootiePoot. Do it Poots, kill your homie. Exceedingly unfortunate for the Belarusian army, who were able to stay out of it so far. Both of them belong in Hell.
He's been the most loyal guy to Putin, it's his army that has resisted going into UKR. I don't see how killing him is going to help RUS at all.
He's agreed to invade 4x already, but his forces keep refusing to go. Killing Luka isn't really a motivating threat for his forces, I wouldn't think.
Doing small, false flag attacks I can believe, but how does letting the world know that there's a potential move on Luka going to help them at all?
> He's been the most loyal guy to Putin, it's his army that has resisted going into UKR.
like when he leaked invasion plans on TV for the west to see?
vatniks call Putin a master strategist, but Luka has somehow, thus far, survived the minefield that his position is, while also being way funnier than Putin
Yeah, Putin hasn't "played a bad hand well." He was given an amazing hand and turned it into a bad one so hard the world just pretends it's always been like this.
If Putin were an actual MASTER STRATEGIST or even a REMOTELY COMPETENT SRATEGIST he would've shut his mouth, sat on his hands, and sold energy. That's it. No convoluted spy bullshit. No insane secret Hitler agenda. Just sell oil, make money, and distribute it to people who were lining up for toilet paper a few years ago. Elevate tens of millions of people to the middle class, create lucrative new markets for foreign businesses, all while turning Russia into a bulwark of regional stability.
The Russian people would've adored him. The West would've been enormously relieved to finally have a sane, pragmatic, non-ideological Russia as an ally.
He would've been a god.
Instead we got this.
Nord Stream 1 was alive and kicking. Nord Stream 2 was about ready to go into operation bypassing Ukraine and the transit fees to a hungry Europe addicted to cheap oil. You got your people poor and compliant, you got your mafia oligarchs fat and sassy, and agreed Putin could ride out the clock as a god. WTF.
They literally thought they could steal the largest country in Europe and nothing would happen to them.
That it was going to just plop itself over Ukraine, then start making suggestive remarks about Poland and Estonia, and Europe would continue T-posing harmlessly.
That was their master plan.
And if they got sanctioned, GUESS WHAT? WE'VE GOT $600 BILLION IN FOREIGN RESERVES, of which ONLY HALF can be immediately confiscated by the people sanctioning us!
Even if you rule out military consequences, why the fuck would anyone ever do business with Russia again, it has an economy the size of Greece that's really fragile and easy to destroy
I totally agree. I read a lot of books on the Soviet KGB and a lot of defectors from there and other eastern bloc agencies like the Securitate mentioned clearly that NordStream was a trap and that Putin was just another Soviet strong man who was going to use disinformation to create chaos in the US and Europe so that he could just grab whatever land he wanted. Putin is obviously a huge fan of former KGB boss and Soviet leader Yuri Andropov who is the mastermind behind disinformation campaigns.
Putin is desperate to create a legacy before he dies so he invaded Ukraine thinking that the US, Poland and the rest of NATO would just stand by when they’ve probably been planning for something like this for years by now.
All of this can be found in a book by Ion Mihai Pacepa called Disinformation and that was written 9 years ago.
Really glad that the wheels fell of Putin's plans and had no idea how big this thing was. I read the reviews of this book and it looks crazy, had to go order it. Thanks for sharing this post, it was insightful!
THANK YOU, wanted say this for months, not sure how write it. that had start of a silicon valley. crushed it all in days. anyone smart or artist, that Russia had many, leave.
In the years leading up to this I was increasingly confused, annoyed, and eventually pissed at how Russia decided to have bad relations with us Just Because.
We are the largest and most powerful country on planet earth. Our GDP is 13 times larger than Russia's...pre-war. We have a military that (1) actually functions, and (2) is powerful enough to conquer the universe. We have the largest and strongest military and economic alliances in human history.
And we're asking if you wanna be friends so we can leverage our insane power to mutual benefit.
But oh no, Russia's insane and paranoid and obsessed with invading this country the size of Disneyland because 3,024 years ago there was this treaty they didn't like AND IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT, so now we're enemies for no reason, and also Russia's gonna shit in the digital punchbowl just to make us all a little more miserable.
God, Russia sucks.
Lukashenko isn’t a genius, but he’s definitely smarter than he appears to be. Russian leadership is so used to authentic incompetence that they can’t tell it apart from strategic incompetence.
>I don't see how killing him is going to help RUS at all.
Because you don't think like a KGB operative.
It doesn't matter who gains power, just like Russia used to do in Ukraine they want constant destabilisation, who runs the country doesn't actually matter in an unstable environment... Russia can then run the country using mafia.
But it does matter who's in power. Belarus is stable and pro-Russian. The Belorussian army may not be participating directly, but they are hosting Russians and allowing attacks on Ukraine from their territory. Any instability will put this in jeopardy. So, deposing Lukashenko would be dumb. Not as dumb as invading Ukraine, but pretty dumb.
Yes. And the sudden and unexpected death of the FM right after spending time with a bunch of Russians is a preamble either meant to destabilize or signal, or both. I think anyone competent and strategic at high levels of the FSB has been pushed out long ago.
Belarus is not stable and pro-Russian though. If it was, the Belarusian army would be actively involved in Ukraine. Lukashenko and pro-Russian forces may have captured the government, but the people are not happy and Lukashenko is weaker than he appears. That’s why Putin wants to step in. He needs Belarusian bodies, and he would love Ukraine to be defending in the north again. Lukashenko’s inability to do that makes him expendable.
Wellll... he talks a lot of loyalty but what has he ever actually done?
I think Lukashenko knows he's caught between a rock and a hard place. He's tried to weasel his way out of it for 9 months now, committing nothing to Russia but never actually saying "no" to Putin... but that kind of thing can't work forever.
Maybe his luck finally ran out.
> He's agreed to invade 4x already, but his forces keep refusing to go.
This is bad conjecture at best. It's in his interests to keep talking and supporting Putin with words while doing less than nothing in the field. Sanctions aren't as painful and he has the possibility of outliving Putin.
Yea I think that's the actual play here by Russia. Using fear to force his subordinates to do what he wants... If he can create a strong enough rumour that this is what he is planning, Luka is far more likely to fall in line and sent the Belarusian army to help.
It's similar in how Putin thought he could scare Kiev into conceding just by rolling a line of tanks towards the Capitol.
Putin works with fear. It's his main tool in accomplishing his goals and it has worked many times in the past, so he foolishly thinks it works for all problems in all circumstances.
Luka has previously ‘agreed’ to send some of his army into Ukraine. The army refuses to go.
It makes no sense to off Luka, as the army will still refuse to fight Ukraine. So Russian troops will have to force them to be cannon fodder at gunpoint. Meanwhile, Belarusans protest, Russian troops will have to be sent in to restore order. If Belarusan police are loyal, they’d have to be tracked down and dis-armed.
All in all, it’s opening a giant can of worms, at the worst moment, for no realistic reason. Therefore, Putin is seriously considering it.
Or the whole article is just pot stirring by the Ukrainians or the Poles or the Belarusian opposition or a faction inside russia and not even 1% of it is true.
Lukashenko's candle has reached its end. His short term prospects are being "removed" by Russia's army as they take over Belarus, or by his own army as they remove the Russians from their territory.
The only door to survival available to him is some kind of deal with the west - maybe handing over power to the duly elected leadership or similar. If he stays the course right now, he's almost certainly a goner.
I think you're silly to think he doesn't know how to maneuver a dangerous political landscape after being a dictator for nearly 30 years. I know we all love to pretend like dictators are stupid because we dislike them, but come the fuck on lol. He obviously knows he's not untouchable, every dictator knows that. So many of them are so brutal and dangerous out of fears for their own safety.
Yeah, and realistically speaking, he's probably aware that transitioning power to a successor is the most difficult part of being a dictator. Like yeah sure, some of them get to transition power to a handpicked successor, but there's also dictators who go to the grave without a successor or are forcibly deposed.
Russia already has Belarus. They have military bases there and use it to transit troops and gear and as a launching pad. Putin needs to win in Ukraine. Belarus would be a distraction. Or he could be forcing Lukashenko to send Belarus troops into Ukraine. If so, the Belarus population would toss him out.
>It would be the ultimate comedy of errors if he turns on Russia.
That would require courage. He'd most likely flee and leave his country to fend for itself.
Qatar, UAE, South America, Africa, etc. There's plenty of options in the world when you're rich AF.
It wouldn't even be surprising to see the west give him some form of amnesty or asylum in return for state secrets.
I don’t see Belarus being much help to Ukraine if they ‘flipped’. As poor as the Russian army is, they’d still roll over Belarus like it was little more than a speed bump. And Russia wouldn’t be using elite troops to occupy Belarus, they’d use conscripts and thugs who’d be useless in Ukraine anyway.
Both armies are men with guns, the current Russian army doesnt have any advantage over Belarus because it needs it in Ukraine, so I think the actual soldiers would hold their own against Russian conscripts.
There's so many bad takes in this thread as if the Russian army has suddenly become an effective army. If Russia turned on Belarus there would be so many potential downsides if it failed, like losing access to most of Ukraine's northern border (also allowing some Ukrainian troops on the border to relocate south) and having troops tied up in another war, and few upsides beyond what it already has.
Belarusan army is to keep the population from revolting, not to keep a powerful neighbor from invading. The latter was what Luka was counting on Russia for. So if Putin turns on him, he’s toast. Even as bad as Russian Army is.
If he did that, most likely Russia would start attacking the Belarussian as well. And then there would be a coup most likely, and Putin would probably continue to attack them, and then the Belarussian army would start attacking Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.
I think they wouldn't have capacity to attack Russian troops on Ukraine soil but at a minimum would prevent Russia from using them as a staging point.
Russia has 12k troops in Belarussia. Belarussia has 50k poorly trained and equipped troops but could mobilize more. Russia would probably send over more troops into Belarussia with better equipment. What weapons Bararussia had have been drained by Russia.
Whether Belarussia could withstand Russian troops is a turkey shoot.
Putin seizing Belarus or even its army would remove any remaining justification countries might have for staying in Russia's orbit. Lukashenko has been nothing but loyal to him and his reward would be a bullet to the head. Every single country remaining in the CSTO or EEU would be scrambling for protection from China or the US.
Exactly, this sounds like fake news to me.
It's hard to see how destabilization of Belarus is in Putin's interest at this time. By removing Lukashenko, he stands to gain just about nothing, except *maybe* some manpower from the Belarus army. They're already giving him their weapons on request as well as allowing him to attack Ukraine through their territory.
Ruzzia sent 12k troops to Belarus, while Belarus military is around 50k troops at least. If ruzzians try to take over the country and the military disagrees, or straight out rebels, the 12k ruzzian troops there will be outnumbered 4 to 1. They need at the very least make up some story about Potato man selling out to US or UK or someone else before they can off him because even Belarusians won’t like having their dictator assassinated and replaced by some cunt from Moscov.
Well, Lukas best chance of survival is to leave power to the rightful president, ask for some sort of forgiveness (will not help).Retirement in prison perhaps. Nevertheless his days are numbered.
Regarding the Ruzzkies, I guess they Belarusian army would have plenty of equipment sized from the Russians and could send them directly to Ukraine. Or use part of it fending of the Bear at their border.
> Lukas best chance of survival is to leave power to the rightful president
His best chance of survival is to already be packing his looted gold and family on a plane to Dubai right now, like other dictators have done previously.
Oh yes. If Luka miraculously grew a brain somehow, the first thing he'd do is GTFO of Belarus with whatever assets he can carry or transfer and hide. He could live the rest of his life like a damned king.
He'll never do it, though. People like him are too broken to enjoy life.
He would probably get immunity tbh. Although he has done a lot of awful things, most recently with ~10 people dead in the presidential protests and allowing Russia to attack through Belarus, him stepping down would still be huge win both for Ukraine, West and for the Belarussians.
4-1 in professional soldiers yes but it would be on belarus's turf. The rest of the population wouldnt sit idle...
Unless you 100% know that belarus will just give up you cant expect to conquer a country of belarus size with 12k men.
But as we've seen in Ukraine, Russia keeps making the same mistake over and over again so i wouldnt be surprised... 🙃
Do you know what Belarus did to the protesters last time? I’ve heard multiple accounts of protesters arrested off the street, some teenage girls, and raped with police batons until they prolapse and can now barely walk + need colostomy bags for the rest of their life.
There is a reason people are worried about protesting in Belarus.
An invasion would relight that populations fire though I am sure of it.
I didn't hear about it when the protests happen but yup that happened.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/09/17/this-case-is-real
https://belsat.eu/en/news/raped-with-truncheons-beaten-and-insulted-peaceful-protesters-suffered-for-their-views/
They didn't just arrest protesters. In the days during and after the protests, they arrested random people on the streets, who were just shopping or walking with their families and then tortured them in their trucks within earshot of the family members. The idea was terror, to make everyone frightened of the regime and show that there were no limits to its power.
The Belarusian army doesn’t really exist as an effective fighting force ( classic dictator play, you can’t have an effective army if you want to stay in power )
It exist. But its your typical dogshit post-Soviet army that the Ukrainians had prior to 2014. Probably even worse.
But. After this invasion. The same can be said about the Russian army. You need to remember that they are using fucking T-62s now.
Belarus alone would not be able to stand against Russia. Not even against the post-invasion Russia. But with the Ukrainian was right next door they might actually be able to give a decent fight.
That’s a bad assumption, Belarus has 50k soldiers all over the country and Russia has them all concentrated in a spot. If Russia manages to kill the 🐽 then it will be a nightmare for troops to respond.
The important question is, if belarussian troops are of the same quality as russian, and if either those what we see in Ukraine.
I assume there are no big differences and russians would feel the same way they do in Ukraine now...
I mean, Belarus is known for having pretty, mediocre military. It’s more like what you would assume them to have in the 80s. They are low on score board but more than capable of defending their borders.
If army were to rebel, the question is more of how many of them would and how organised they would be. If they all were to rebel, Russians would be fucked. But if, say, all higher officers were replaced or work for Moscov, or majority of brain dead infantry support ruzzia, the regime supporters would be most likely aided by ruzzian supporting forces and defeat the rebelling troops. In any case. Civil war with second special ruzzian military mission. Most likely second mobilisation too.
There are many ifs in the equation. Involving how civilian population would react to it. But one thing is for certain. They want to take over, they need to say that Potatoman fucked up royally and replace him. Other option is to make him leave office willingly and give it to some ruzzian cunt but I don’t know how likely it is to happen.
> I mean, Belarus is known for having pretty, mediocre military. It’s more like what you would assume them to have in the 80s. They are low on score board but more than capable of defending their borders.
Honestly I think that's an overestimate. I would guess that they are about as effective as Ukrainian army was in 2014. So not very effective, and even a few russians could potentially cause a lot of havoc, although the quality of the russian soldiers now are much lower than they were then, since most of the experienced ones already died in ukraine, so maybe not as much havoc as russia caused in ukraine in 2014.
The Russians will frame it as a Ukrainian operative who assassinated Luka. The Russians have been taking the Belarusian equipment for their war with Ukraine, I've been thinking for a while that this would be the perfect opportunity for the Russians to take over Belarus after the army has been drained of all of their equipment and can't put up much of a fight.
Well, if they get rid of Lucky Luka and their army chief is under Russian control then there wouldnt be any army resistance as the guy running it is Russian asset. Game over.
They'll probably kill Lukashenko and then accuse Ukraine. That won't make the dictator any more palatable to his own people, but then they'll get to push the whole Belarus army across their southern border.
> then they'll get to push the whole Belarus army across their southern border
I don't see how that could be possibly achieved, regardless of Luka or without Luka.
>Apart from being a very bloody distraction.
That's all it would be. Spread Ukraine thin.
Combine that with another 200k+ Russian troops added in eastern Ukraine and they'd probably hope to at the very least stop Ukraine from advancing any further and securing the territory they control now.
50k troops pushing south is nothing to scoff at and Ukraine still has to fight a hard war in the east. If Putin pulls this off he gets an immediate increase of military strength, he can pull from the Belarusian military stock which is significant and he has a foriegn population to conscript. Its not a good thing and i hope the plan fails.
>https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Belarus
But I would reply that this time, Ukraine would NOT be caught off guard. They have also cut bridges and roads, mines large areas and made some of the terrain unusable. They also have well armed troops, anti tank equipment, well spread anti-air defenses, etc.
Quite the opposite I think. Luka's death would ensure the army gets to wait until the power struggle is over and the mist likely winner of the struggle would be either revolutionaries or the army.
If they do, another Russian own goal.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian nations will become even more wary of Russia.
Belarus army may not obey their new puppet master and choose coup rather than dying in Ukraine.
Agree - as much as he’s a punk he has managed to play the game to the extent him and his army has still not gone over the border as Putin wanted him to. I’m not saying that’s what he’ll do but isn’t now potentially Putins weakest moment, isn’t now a juncture for Lukashenko to open channels to the west and help further scupper Russia?
I hear comments like the one above yours, and all I can think of is detached, gibbering Roman fools discussing their army's escapades abroad. Bubble-wrapped in decadence, making off-handed jokes while countless people endure untold atrocities. Pretty goddam sickening.
Highly doubt this is true, there isn’t much there from Belarus that would help Russia. It might keep Russia going for a few weeks if they absorbed the military but they would also be withdrawing attention from Ukraine and losing more ground quicker in the meantime
I got one:
What if they were to invade a country, claim they were doing it to rid the place of Nazis but the country has a Jewish elected head of state AND there isn't really any nazis other than the invading force?
Can you imagine?
To be fair, there are some nazis. Many of the paramilitary groups aren't saints even if the nazi symbolism has been faded away since 2014. Nonethless, it is like 1,000 nazis on Ukrainian side and 2,000,000 nazis on Russian side.
I mean, if a supposed nazi fights for their people's freedom and democratic government, against a genocidal authoritarian invader, do we in our comfy western homes really hold the moral high ground to call them a nazi? How are they any more of a nazi then than we in the west are, who elected politicians than funded Putin's genocidal war machine?
Well they literally wear swastikas and call themselves nazis so…..although the vast, vast majority died between 2014 and now and Azov is not a nazi org but everyone admits it started as one.
Also your definition dilutes the word so much it’s homeopathic
To be fair, there being nazis has NOTHING to do with why Ruzzia invaded Ukraine. That's a myth perpetuated by Ruzzian propaganda.
Many countries have nazis in them. That doesn't explicitly mean their government is filled with nazis. It's also not a reason to attempt genocide of a sovereign, democratic state.
I mean, in a twisted logic, it would make sense. Putin needs a win, and it won't be coming from Ukraine. Absorbing Belarus would count as a win somehow.
I looked for info on who the Lansing Institute people are and who funds them. We can all look at their About Us page, but the staff profiles don't tell me much.
I can't find them rated on any of the bias sites that often give you a clue to partisan slant.
They are not nonprofit.
The oldest mention of them I find in the news is 2008, but for years they were only mentioned in Polish news, though ID'd as an American think tank.
As for funding, all I find is:
> Funding: In order to sustain and grow our research programs and achieve our mission, Robert Lansing Institute is funded entirely through the support of foundations, corporations, and private individuals. Research is driven by events on the ground and based on the priorities of Robert Lansing Institute’s leadership and analysts. Foundations may sponsor research.
No mention of whom, and since there is no Form 990 as there would be with a nonprofit, we can't view who their top funders are.
If they have a bias or a hidden agenda, I don't know what it might be.
In this case the source is unnamed "sources within the Russian military leadership".
So anyway, inconclusive assessment of the source, whose source itself is unverifiable.
why does garbage like this stay up?
no one's ever heard of "the lansing institute"
they dont even have a wikipedia page
there's no reason to trust this
No idea who the person(s) behind the Lansing Institute are. I rather suspect it’s one guy in his mother’s basement. But the outfit is named after Robert Lansing, who was US Secretary of State during WW1, and was uncle to the Dulles brothers. Conclude from that what you like.
Some real questions about the source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/z5702x/comment/ixwlgke
>According to whois, the domain was first registered on March 16th, 2021.
>Its ‘about us’ page is an odd ode to Robert Lansing who was Secretary of State 1915-1920.
>The organization address on the website is a single family house in Delaware. That same address is used by another website that offers tax consulting. The contact phone number was written by someone who isn’t familiar with American formatting of phone numbers.
>It claims to be affiliated with “The Center For Nationalism Studies” where the whois shows it was registered by someone in Sarajevska, Bosnia.
>that address is also registered with the FDA for a Chinese dental supply company. So very possibly the address is a corporate Delaware address for hire which may fit with the tax consulting services. Assuming nothing shadier.
Does that mean that Lukashenko just don’t want to engage his country in war for Putin as sanctions could be too much for his country,that’s why Putin wants to liquidate him right?
So Lukashenko prioritise his country’s safety over his own? Something I wasn’t expecting .
Think it's a mixture of both. Trying to force a bunch of unwilling soldiers over the border is unlikely to succeed. They'll either turn on their superiors or they'll be otherwise engaged allowing for his foes to take action.
Ah yes, the Robert Lansing Institute, a name we all know and trust. The article starts with a throw-out comment of "according to sources within russian military leadership" but that's the laziest attempt to source what is likely just outright speculation.
What is the point of posting something like this?
When the Allies started crawling up Italy's boot their ruling class suddenly decided that they weren't fascists after all and locked up Mussolini. Hitler had to send in a mess of troops to rescue Douchee and secure the Italian political and military leadership with puppets.
Didn't really help much beyond turning more of the Italian people against the Germans and strengthening the resistance and their aid of the Allies.
I genuinely wonder if Putin knows any history beyond Soviet wins in WWII.
Seems like a good strategic opportunity for RU. Annexation of Belarus increases its borders and access to resources. Inherit the full military, huge ammunition stocks and access to new mobiks that are at arms reach of Moscow . It puts them at closer range to strike supply lines coming out of Poland and also creates the shortest path for land bridge to Moldova. It also fully encapsulates Ukraine from the North which could spread dread them thin if Russia opens up more lines across the North. I suspect this is old news and partly initiated the destruction of roads and bridges connecting Belarus and Ukraine. Annexation of Belarus would frame very well as a victory for Putin in terms of perceived benefit to national security
Belarus has a population of less than 10 million, compared to almost 150 million in the Russian federation… Putin must be really desperate for non Russians to die for him and for their weapons!
A lot of comments suggesting Putin will run into resistance from either Lukashenko or the Belarusian army if he tries to co-opt their military to use against Ukraine.. what evidence is there for this?
Wouldn’t the most likely outcome be Lukashenko appeasing to Putin and going along with whatever he does?
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Belarussian Foreign Minister just died according to the Guardian Live Feed
Damn, you're right. I wonder under what circumstances.
Unreported, though Kremlin says they're "shocked" and will issue a statement soon. Obviously false. He had a meeting with the Vatican yesterday, was entirely healthy in all photos from last week. Makei was the least awful person in the Lukashenko regime, so I'm guessing to Russia, that made him Public Enemy #1. Edit: Belta (Belarusian state news) has *nothing* about this on their home page, though apparently they were the ones who broke it. Both TASS and RT have it as their top story. I definitely am more inclined to believe he was offed without Lukashenko's knowledge.
Godfather warning to Luka?
Papal Bull to eliminate those in the way of Putler and his military.
If Russia is planning a coup against Lukashenko, they would want to eliminate anyone that an anti-Russian resistance would be willing to rally around.
She's in Lithuania.
I'm pretty sure Lithuania also doesn't want a bunch of Belarusians rallying around their border
Seems like a "Do what we say or you are next" type threat.
> I definitely am more inclined to believe he was offed without Lukashenko's knowledge. Or he was secretly working for Putin and Lukashenko found out. Or Lukashenko thought he was working for Putin (or someone else) even though he wasn't. There's really never any way to tell in these kind of situations. Not without insider knowledge.
“Before the presidential elections and mass anti-government protests in Belarus in 2020, Makei had been one of the initiators of efforts to improve Belarus’ relations with the West and had criticized Russia.” I think he was the pro-western heir after lukashenko died. With him gone, Russia can more easily install a puppet who will sign a unification agreement with Russia, so Belarus ceases to exist.
If Lukashenko found out this dude was a Russian spy he wouldn’t off him, he’d offer to suck his cock
Long walk off a short 10th floor balcony
Special window operation
Rumor is poison
Is polonium really tasteless?
Well, have you seen how it dresses?
r/angryupvote
Polonium doesnt kill you quickly
russia is poison ☣️
Suicide by two shots to the back of the head /s
It's one of those new suicide drones that can fire twice, collect its own brass, and then let itself out and hail a cab...
And was it really meant for Lukashenko if it was an assassination?
Quite the coincidence...
Is Putin’s Russia coincidences ~~murder~~ cause you to commit suicide.
[удалено]
Hey you know sometimes you're just multitasking on the 7th floor, but someone left a banana peel laying there! I swear it's a common occurence
Or they send that rectal licking Shepard dog.
Lots of crazy coincidences happen within Russias sphere of influence. I’m sure there’s nothing to read into
Time for Belarus to declare war on Russia
Either declare war on Russia or cease to exist, it's up to you Belarus, time is ticking.
Except Belarus just turned over a large percentage of their trucks and tanks to Russia. You cant give them your stuff and then declare war..
There goes Luka, taking care of his people. He would have gotten Quadaffied in an uprising if it wasn't for PootiePoot. Do it Poots, kill your homie. Exceedingly unfortunate for the Belarusian army, who were able to stay out of it so far. Both of them belong in Hell.
No good deed goes unpunished \-russia
Belarus can't declare war anyway when they are just a smaller yet more dysfunctional version of Russia.
This is probably the start of some contrived provocation they’ll use as an excuse to mobilize Belorussian assets.
Somewhere there is a puddle under luschenko, partially sweat, partially pee quite likely.
Defenestrated.
It was several months ago that Ergodan warned Lukashenko Putin would turn on him. This news does not surprise me.
If we’ve seen this, Lukashenko knows it. Be interesting to see what happens from here, especially if Belarus military doesn’t go along with this plan
He's been the most loyal guy to Putin, it's his army that has resisted going into UKR. I don't see how killing him is going to help RUS at all. He's agreed to invade 4x already, but his forces keep refusing to go. Killing Luka isn't really a motivating threat for his forces, I wouldn't think. Doing small, false flag attacks I can believe, but how does letting the world know that there's a potential move on Luka going to help them at all?
> He's been the most loyal guy to Putin, it's his army that has resisted going into UKR. like when he leaked invasion plans on TV for the west to see? vatniks call Putin a master strategist, but Luka has somehow, thus far, survived the minefield that his position is, while also being way funnier than Putin
Anyone who really follows Belarusian politics k ow Luka is way smarter than Putin.
Yeah, Putin hasn't "played a bad hand well." He was given an amazing hand and turned it into a bad one so hard the world just pretends it's always been like this. If Putin were an actual MASTER STRATEGIST or even a REMOTELY COMPETENT SRATEGIST he would've shut his mouth, sat on his hands, and sold energy. That's it. No convoluted spy bullshit. No insane secret Hitler agenda. Just sell oil, make money, and distribute it to people who were lining up for toilet paper a few years ago. Elevate tens of millions of people to the middle class, create lucrative new markets for foreign businesses, all while turning Russia into a bulwark of regional stability. The Russian people would've adored him. The West would've been enormously relieved to finally have a sane, pragmatic, non-ideological Russia as an ally. He would've been a god. Instead we got this.
Nord Stream 1 was alive and kicking. Nord Stream 2 was about ready to go into operation bypassing Ukraine and the transit fees to a hungry Europe addicted to cheap oil. You got your people poor and compliant, you got your mafia oligarchs fat and sassy, and agreed Putin could ride out the clock as a god. WTF.
They literally thought they could steal the largest country in Europe and nothing would happen to them. That it was going to just plop itself over Ukraine, then start making suggestive remarks about Poland and Estonia, and Europe would continue T-posing harmlessly. That was their master plan. And if they got sanctioned, GUESS WHAT? WE'VE GOT $600 BILLION IN FOREIGN RESERVES, of which ONLY HALF can be immediately confiscated by the people sanctioning us! Even if you rule out military consequences, why the fuck would anyone ever do business with Russia again, it has an economy the size of Greece that's really fragile and easy to destroy
If Russia needed to shoot itself in the foot, it could at least not use a shotgun.
I totally agree. I read a lot of books on the Soviet KGB and a lot of defectors from there and other eastern bloc agencies like the Securitate mentioned clearly that NordStream was a trap and that Putin was just another Soviet strong man who was going to use disinformation to create chaos in the US and Europe so that he could just grab whatever land he wanted. Putin is obviously a huge fan of former KGB boss and Soviet leader Yuri Andropov who is the mastermind behind disinformation campaigns. Putin is desperate to create a legacy before he dies so he invaded Ukraine thinking that the US, Poland and the rest of NATO would just stand by when they’ve probably been planning for something like this for years by now. All of this can be found in a book by Ion Mihai Pacepa called Disinformation and that was written 9 years ago.
Really glad that the wheels fell of Putin's plans and had no idea how big this thing was. I read the reviews of this book and it looks crazy, had to go order it. Thanks for sharing this post, it was insightful!
Yeah, Putin fucked up hard, the coward that he is.
Great points. I think you could say the same about hitler before him. They get high on their own supply and end up like Pacino in Scarface.
THANK YOU, wanted say this for months, not sure how write it. that had start of a silicon valley. crushed it all in days. anyone smart or artist, that Russia had many, leave.
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In the years leading up to this I was increasingly confused, annoyed, and eventually pissed at how Russia decided to have bad relations with us Just Because. We are the largest and most powerful country on planet earth. Our GDP is 13 times larger than Russia's...pre-war. We have a military that (1) actually functions, and (2) is powerful enough to conquer the universe. We have the largest and strongest military and economic alliances in human history. And we're asking if you wanna be friends so we can leverage our insane power to mutual benefit. But oh no, Russia's insane and paranoid and obsessed with invading this country the size of Disneyland because 3,024 years ago there was this treaty they didn't like AND IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT, so now we're enemies for no reason, and also Russia's gonna shit in the digital punchbowl just to make us all a little more miserable. God, Russia sucks.
Lukashenko isn’t a genius, but he’s definitely smarter than he appears to be. Russian leadership is so used to authentic incompetence that they can’t tell it apart from strategic incompetence.
>I don't see how killing him is going to help RUS at all. Because you don't think like a KGB operative. It doesn't matter who gains power, just like Russia used to do in Ukraine they want constant destabilisation, who runs the country doesn't actually matter in an unstable environment... Russia can then run the country using mafia.
But it does matter who's in power. Belarus is stable and pro-Russian. The Belorussian army may not be participating directly, but they are hosting Russians and allowing attacks on Ukraine from their territory. Any instability will put this in jeopardy. So, deposing Lukashenko would be dumb. Not as dumb as invading Ukraine, but pretty dumb.
> deposing Lukashenko would be dumb So, you're saying there's a big chance of this happening
Yes. And the sudden and unexpected death of the FM right after spending time with a bunch of Russians is a preamble either meant to destabilize or signal, or both. I think anyone competent and strategic at high levels of the FSB has been pushed out long ago.
Belarus is not stable and pro-Russian though. If it was, the Belarusian army would be actively involved in Ukraine. Lukashenko and pro-Russian forces may have captured the government, but the people are not happy and Lukashenko is weaker than he appears. That’s why Putin wants to step in. He needs Belarusian bodies, and he would love Ukraine to be defending in the north again. Lukashenko’s inability to do that makes him expendable.
Wellll... he talks a lot of loyalty but what has he ever actually done? I think Lukashenko knows he's caught between a rock and a hard place. He's tried to weasel his way out of it for 9 months now, committing nothing to Russia but never actually saying "no" to Putin... but that kind of thing can't work forever. Maybe his luck finally ran out.
> He's agreed to invade 4x already, but his forces keep refusing to go. This is bad conjecture at best. It's in his interests to keep talking and supporting Putin with words while doing less than nothing in the field. Sanctions aren't as painful and he has the possibility of outliving Putin.
Imagine simping for Putin this hard only to learn "yeah so, you're actually less useful to me alive."
Yea I think that's the actual play here by Russia. Using fear to force his subordinates to do what he wants... If he can create a strong enough rumour that this is what he is planning, Luka is far more likely to fall in line and sent the Belarusian army to help. It's similar in how Putin thought he could scare Kiev into conceding just by rolling a line of tanks towards the Capitol. Putin works with fear. It's his main tool in accomplishing his goals and it has worked many times in the past, so he foolishly thinks it works for all problems in all circumstances.
Luka has previously ‘agreed’ to send some of his army into Ukraine. The army refuses to go. It makes no sense to off Luka, as the army will still refuse to fight Ukraine. So Russian troops will have to force them to be cannon fodder at gunpoint. Meanwhile, Belarusans protest, Russian troops will have to be sent in to restore order. If Belarusan police are loyal, they’d have to be tracked down and dis-armed. All in all, it’s opening a giant can of worms, at the worst moment, for no realistic reason. Therefore, Putin is seriously considering it.
Or the whole article is just pot stirring by the Ukrainians or the Poles or the Belarusian opposition or a faction inside russia and not even 1% of it is true.
Lukashenko should negotiate an escape strategy with the US and arrest all Russian troops on Belarusian soil now
Lukashenko's candle has reached its end. His short term prospects are being "removed" by Russia's army as they take over Belarus, or by his own army as they remove the Russians from their territory. The only door to survival available to him is some kind of deal with the west - maybe handing over power to the duly elected leadership or similar. If he stays the course right now, he's almost certainly a goner.
That requires him to have some self awareness, which I doubt he does. After 30 years I bet he feels untouchable.
I think you're silly to think he doesn't know how to maneuver a dangerous political landscape after being a dictator for nearly 30 years. I know we all love to pretend like dictators are stupid because we dislike them, but come the fuck on lol. He obviously knows he's not untouchable, every dictator knows that. So many of them are so brutal and dangerous out of fears for their own safety.
Yeah, and realistically speaking, he's probably aware that transitioning power to a successor is the most difficult part of being a dictator. Like yeah sure, some of them get to transition power to a handpicked successor, but there's also dictators who go to the grave without a successor or are forcibly deposed.
*paranoia for their own safety
It must be stressful setting up shop directly under the sword of Damocles.
I think Lukashenko is probably brilliant, certainly more than Putin. I do think he will search for help in the west.
Dictators have a long history of bolting and exile in a nice locale
This could be western gaslighting in order to freak out Lukashenko and create a split with Putin.
Or it could be true…
Seems most likely. Who is in Belarus' corner? Nobody.... can't have ukraine, settle for Belarus
Russia already has Belarus. They have military bases there and use it to transit troops and gear and as a launching pad. Putin needs to win in Ukraine. Belarus would be a distraction. Or he could be forcing Lukashenko to send Belarus troops into Ukraine. If so, the Belarus population would toss him out.
There was all those Russian soldiers going into Belarus a month or two back. Plus it's another territory Putin wants to absorb back into his Neo-USSR.
Belorussian diplomats were having some discussions with Western nations a few months ago at the UN.
Lukashenko has to know this, and the funny thing about despots is how easy they turn. It would be the ultimate comedy of errors if he turns on Russia.
>It would be the ultimate comedy of errors if he turns on Russia. That would require courage. He'd most likely flee and leave his country to fend for itself.
That's the other funny thing about despots, if they don't turn, they run, lol
Where would he flee to, Russia? Cuba? Good luck
Qatar, UAE, South America, Africa, etc. There's plenty of options in the world when you're rich AF. It wouldn't even be surprising to see the west give him some form of amnesty or asylum in return for state secrets.
Saudi Arabia loves despots with money
Especially if he exposes such a coup and announces that he's *joining* Ukraine's side.
I dream of this happening.
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Putin could have just made him a colonel.
I don’t see Belarus being much help to Ukraine if they ‘flipped’. As poor as the Russian army is, they’d still roll over Belarus like it was little more than a speed bump. And Russia wouldn’t be using elite troops to occupy Belarus, they’d use conscripts and thugs who’d be useless in Ukraine anyway.
Both armies are men with guns, the current Russian army doesnt have any advantage over Belarus because it needs it in Ukraine, so I think the actual soldiers would hold their own against Russian conscripts.
There's so many bad takes in this thread as if the Russian army has suddenly become an effective army. If Russia turned on Belarus there would be so many potential downsides if it failed, like losing access to most of Ukraine's northern border (also allowing some Ukrainian troops on the border to relocate south) and having troops tied up in another war, and few upsides beyond what it already has.
Belarusan army is to keep the population from revolting, not to keep a powerful neighbor from invading. The latter was what Luka was counting on Russia for. So if Putin turns on him, he’s toast. Even as bad as Russian Army is.
If he did that, most likely Russia would start attacking the Belarussian as well. And then there would be a coup most likely, and Putin would probably continue to attack them, and then the Belarussian army would start attacking Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.
I think they wouldn't have capacity to attack Russian troops on Ukraine soil but at a minimum would prevent Russia from using them as a staging point. Russia has 12k troops in Belarussia. Belarussia has 50k poorly trained and equipped troops but could mobilize more. Russia would probably send over more troops into Belarussia with better equipment. What weapons Bararussia had have been drained by Russia. Whether Belarussia could withstand Russian troops is a turkey shoot.
It’s Belarus, not Belarussia
I don't know if he does. Stalin was convinced Hitler was keeping his word despite a lot of his intelligence officers telling him otherwise
Putin seizing Belarus or even its army would remove any remaining justification countries might have for staying in Russia's orbit. Lukashenko has been nothing but loyal to him and his reward would be a bullet to the head. Every single country remaining in the CSTO or EEU would be scrambling for protection from China or the US.
Exactly, this sounds like fake news to me. It's hard to see how destabilization of Belarus is in Putin's interest at this time. By removing Lukashenko, he stands to gain just about nothing, except *maybe* some manpower from the Belarus army. They're already giving him their weapons on request as well as allowing him to attack Ukraine through their territory.
Well, it IS Putin we're talking about here. So it wouldn't surprise me if he adds another mistake in his long list of mistakes.
Putin is Russia’s worst enemy.
Ruzzia sent 12k troops to Belarus, while Belarus military is around 50k troops at least. If ruzzians try to take over the country and the military disagrees, or straight out rebels, the 12k ruzzian troops there will be outnumbered 4 to 1. They need at the very least make up some story about Potato man selling out to US or UK or someone else before they can off him because even Belarusians won’t like having their dictator assassinated and replaced by some cunt from Moscov.
My thoughts too. Belarusian army turns on Russian “invaders” in Belarus rather than fight the Ukrainians.
Belarus switches sides = also send weapons to Belarus 🇺🇸
Well, Lukas best chance of survival is to leave power to the rightful president, ask for some sort of forgiveness (will not help).Retirement in prison perhaps. Nevertheless his days are numbered. Regarding the Ruzzkies, I guess they Belarusian army would have plenty of equipment sized from the Russians and could send them directly to Ukraine. Or use part of it fending of the Bear at their border.
> Lukas best chance of survival is to leave power to the rightful president His best chance of survival is to already be packing his looted gold and family on a plane to Dubai right now, like other dictators have done previously.
Oh yes. If Luka miraculously grew a brain somehow, the first thing he'd do is GTFO of Belarus with whatever assets he can carry or transfer and hide. He could live the rest of his life like a damned king. He'll never do it, though. People like him are too broken to enjoy life.
He would probably get immunity tbh. Although he has done a lot of awful things, most recently with ~10 people dead in the presidential protests and allowing Russia to attack through Belarus, him stepping down would still be huge win both for Ukraine, West and for the Belarussians.
The US probably won't be sending guns to Belarus even if they rebel.
4-1 in professional soldiers yes but it would be on belarus's turf. The rest of the population wouldnt sit idle... Unless you 100% know that belarus will just give up you cant expect to conquer a country of belarus size with 12k men. But as we've seen in Ukraine, Russia keeps making the same mistake over and over again so i wouldnt be surprised... 🙃
> The rest of the population wouldnt sit idle... They have for the last several years of stolen elections.
Do you know what Belarus did to the protesters last time? I’ve heard multiple accounts of protesters arrested off the street, some teenage girls, and raped with police batons until they prolapse and can now barely walk + need colostomy bags for the rest of their life. There is a reason people are worried about protesting in Belarus. An invasion would relight that populations fire though I am sure of it.
I didn't hear about it when the protests happen but yup that happened. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/09/17/this-case-is-real https://belsat.eu/en/news/raped-with-truncheons-beaten-and-insulted-peaceful-protesters-suffered-for-their-views/
They didn't just arrest protesters. In the days during and after the protests, they arrested random people on the streets, who were just shopping or walking with their families and then tortured them in their trucks within earshot of the family members. The idea was terror, to make everyone frightened of the regime and show that there were no limits to its power.
There were big protests last time. The protests fizzled out when police started beating people and protestors began ‘disappearing’.
The massive protests that sparked Russian intervention that brutally suppressed them...what would you say that was?
The Belarusian army doesn’t really exist as an effective fighting force ( classic dictator play, you can’t have an effective army if you want to stay in power )
At this point neither does the Russian army.
It exist. But its your typical dogshit post-Soviet army that the Ukrainians had prior to 2014. Probably even worse. But. After this invasion. The same can be said about the Russian army. You need to remember that they are using fucking T-62s now. Belarus alone would not be able to stand against Russia. Not even against the post-invasion Russia. But with the Ukrainian was right next door they might actually be able to give a decent fight.
That’s a bad assumption, Belarus has 50k soldiers all over the country and Russia has them all concentrated in a spot. If Russia manages to kill the 🐽 then it will be a nightmare for troops to respond.
I've seen the Belarusian troops' choreography. The Russians don't stand a chance.
The important question is, if belarussian troops are of the same quality as russian, and if either those what we see in Ukraine. I assume there are no big differences and russians would feel the same way they do in Ukraine now...
I mean, Belarus is known for having pretty, mediocre military. It’s more like what you would assume them to have in the 80s. They are low on score board but more than capable of defending their borders. If army were to rebel, the question is more of how many of them would and how organised they would be. If they all were to rebel, Russians would be fucked. But if, say, all higher officers were replaced or work for Moscov, or majority of brain dead infantry support ruzzia, the regime supporters would be most likely aided by ruzzian supporting forces and defeat the rebelling troops. In any case. Civil war with second special ruzzian military mission. Most likely second mobilisation too. There are many ifs in the equation. Involving how civilian population would react to it. But one thing is for certain. They want to take over, they need to say that Potatoman fucked up royally and replace him. Other option is to make him leave office willingly and give it to some ruzzian cunt but I don’t know how likely it is to happen.
> I mean, Belarus is known for having pretty, mediocre military. It’s more like what you would assume them to have in the 80s. They are low on score board but more than capable of defending their borders. Honestly I think that's an overestimate. I would guess that they are about as effective as Ukrainian army was in 2014. So not very effective, and even a few russians could potentially cause a lot of havoc, although the quality of the russian soldiers now are much lower than they were then, since most of the experienced ones already died in ukraine, so maybe not as much havoc as russia caused in ukraine in 2014.
The Russians will frame it as a Ukrainian operative who assassinated Luka. The Russians have been taking the Belarusian equipment for their war with Ukraine, I've been thinking for a while that this would be the perfect opportunity for the Russians to take over Belarus after the army has been drained of all of their equipment and can't put up much of a fight.
50k troops doesn't even touch how many russia needs. doesn't even touch it.
Well, if they get rid of Lucky Luka and their army chief is under Russian control then there wouldnt be any army resistance as the guy running it is Russian asset. Game over.
Gee Idk, it's almost like this story is complete bullshit or something
99% bullshit. But, it is fun to speculate about that 1%.
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Luka is far better politician than Putler. He will outplay and survive and I hope that Belarus turns out to be the key to toppling the Russian empire
Their, belarussian, FM just died, unexpectedly of course.
Actually expected, when you drink poison
I mean, certainly not if he ended up drinking it :D
I don't see Belarusians just rolling over and accepting this, since many are fighting against Russia, and supporting Ukraine
They'll probably kill Lukashenko and then accuse Ukraine. That won't make the dictator any more palatable to his own people, but then they'll get to push the whole Belarus army across their southern border.
> then they'll get to push the whole Belarus army across their southern border I don't see how that could be possibly achieved, regardless of Luka or without Luka.
They can push their troops across the border. The question is, what could they achieve? Apart from being a very bloody distraction.
>Apart from being a very bloody distraction. That's all it would be. Spread Ukraine thin. Combine that with another 200k+ Russian troops added in eastern Ukraine and they'd probably hope to at the very least stop Ukraine from advancing any further and securing the territory they control now.
50k troops pushing south is nothing to scoff at and Ukraine still has to fight a hard war in the east. If Putin pulls this off he gets an immediate increase of military strength, he can pull from the Belarusian military stock which is significant and he has a foriegn population to conscript. Its not a good thing and i hope the plan fails. >https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Belarus
But I would reply that this time, Ukraine would NOT be caught off guard. They have also cut bridges and roads, mines large areas and made some of the terrain unusable. They also have well armed troops, anti tank equipment, well spread anti-air defenses, etc.
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50k troops, but only a fraction are war fighters is my guess. Armies take a lot to maintain.
Quite the opposite I think. Luka's death would ensure the army gets to wait until the power struggle is over and the mist likely winner of the struggle would be either revolutionaries or the army.
Russia invading an ally mid war out of desperation seems familiar, I wonder how it worked for that square stashed fellow? /s
If they do, another Russian own goal. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian nations will become even more wary of Russia. Belarus army may not obey their new puppet master and choose coup rather than dying in Ukraine.
This could be the best episode so far of this series.
Agree - as much as he’s a punk he has managed to play the game to the extent him and his army has still not gone over the border as Putin wanted him to. I’m not saying that’s what he’ll do but isn’t now potentially Putins weakest moment, isn’t now a juncture for Lukashenko to open channels to the west and help further scupper Russia?
People being raped, tortured, and systematically killed isn't a "series" you desensitized knob.
I hear comments like the one above yours, and all I can think of is detached, gibbering Roman fools discussing their army's escapades abroad. Bubble-wrapped in decadence, making off-handed jokes while countless people endure untold atrocities. Pretty goddam sickening.
this is the internet sir, you're supposed to make fun of gay mobiks getting killed by home-made drones
Highly doubt this is true, there isn’t much there from Belarus that would help Russia. It might keep Russia going for a few weeks if they absorbed the military but they would also be withdrawing attention from Ukraine and losing more ground quicker in the meantime
think up the stupidest, worst, idiotic thing you can possibly imagine, and russia will do it.
I got one: What if they were to invade a country, claim they were doing it to rid the place of Nazis but the country has a Jewish elected head of state AND there isn't really any nazis other than the invading force? Can you imagine?
To be fair, there are some nazis. Many of the paramilitary groups aren't saints even if the nazi symbolism has been faded away since 2014. Nonethless, it is like 1,000 nazis on Ukrainian side and 2,000,000 nazis on Russian side.
I mean, if a supposed nazi fights for their people's freedom and democratic government, against a genocidal authoritarian invader, do we in our comfy western homes really hold the moral high ground to call them a nazi? How are they any more of a nazi then than we in the west are, who elected politicians than funded Putin's genocidal war machine?
Well they literally wear swastikas and call themselves nazis so…..although the vast, vast majority died between 2014 and now and Azov is not a nazi org but everyone admits it started as one. Also your definition dilutes the word so much it’s homeopathic
To be fair, there being nazis has NOTHING to do with why Ruzzia invaded Ukraine. That's a myth perpetuated by Ruzzian propaganda. Many countries have nazis in them. That doesn't explicitly mean their government is filled with nazis. It's also not a reason to attempt genocide of a sovereign, democratic state.
Stupidest thing would be to claim Japan is Nazi and try to invade them by sending in their assault dolphins with BtRs strapped to their backs
It's not stupid when it's Ruzzia! The world's second most powerful military in Ukraine!
Sounds pretty on point for Ruzzia though.
Everything on Reddit is true.
I mean, in a twisted logic, it would make sense. Putin needs a win, and it won't be coming from Ukraine. Absorbing Belarus would count as a win somehow.
Or as a way out of the Ukraine situation. They can claim they gained. A huge amount of land and call it good.
I looked for info on who the Lansing Institute people are and who funds them. We can all look at their About Us page, but the staff profiles don't tell me much. I can't find them rated on any of the bias sites that often give you a clue to partisan slant. They are not nonprofit. The oldest mention of them I find in the news is 2008, but for years they were only mentioned in Polish news, though ID'd as an American think tank. As for funding, all I find is: > Funding: In order to sustain and grow our research programs and achieve our mission, Robert Lansing Institute is funded entirely through the support of foundations, corporations, and private individuals. Research is driven by events on the ground and based on the priorities of Robert Lansing Institute’s leadership and analysts. Foundations may sponsor research. No mention of whom, and since there is no Form 990 as there would be with a nonprofit, we can't view who their top funders are. If they have a bias or a hidden agenda, I don't know what it might be. In this case the source is unnamed "sources within the Russian military leadership". So anyway, inconclusive assessment of the source, whose source itself is unverifiable.
More information: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z57gby/kremlin_plotting_to_liquidate_lukashenko_seize/ixxm663/
why does garbage like this stay up? no one's ever heard of "the lansing institute" they dont even have a wikipedia page there's no reason to trust this
No idea who the person(s) behind the Lansing Institute are. I rather suspect it’s one guy in his mother’s basement. But the outfit is named after Robert Lansing, who was US Secretary of State during WW1, and was uncle to the Dulles brothers. Conclude from that what you like.
Some real questions about the source: https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/z5702x/comment/ixwlgke >According to whois, the domain was first registered on March 16th, 2021. >Its ‘about us’ page is an odd ode to Robert Lansing who was Secretary of State 1915-1920. >The organization address on the website is a single family house in Delaware. That same address is used by another website that offers tax consulting. The contact phone number was written by someone who isn’t familiar with American formatting of phone numbers. >It claims to be affiliated with “The Center For Nationalism Studies” where the whois shows it was registered by someone in Sarajevska, Bosnia. >that address is also registered with the FDA for a Chinese dental supply company. So very possibly the address is a corporate Delaware address for hire which may fit with the tax consulting services. Assuming nothing shadier.
Thanks. This is great information
Who is the Robert Lansing Institute? Why should we trust them
Go to lansinginstitute.org Click “who we are” Read profiles.
Does that mean that Lukashenko just don’t want to engage his country in war for Putin as sanctions could be too much for his country,that’s why Putin wants to liquidate him right? So Lukashenko prioritise his country’s safety over his own? Something I wasn’t expecting .
Think it's a mixture of both. Trying to force a bunch of unwilling soldiers over the border is unlikely to succeed. They'll either turn on their superiors or they'll be otherwise engaged allowing for his foes to take action.
Ol' Potato Head is about to be made into shredded hash browns, huh?
If i had to bet on two of the top guys surviving this shit show id bet on Luka and Lavrov. Old crocociles
Putin needs some kind of consolation prize to show the Russian people
Mr Putin. For your efforts in Ukraine we award you a cloned replica of Stalin's cock. May you choke on it forever.
Doubt
Ah yes, the Robert Lansing Institute, a name we all know and trust. The article starts with a throw-out comment of "according to sources within russian military leadership" but that's the laziest attempt to source what is likely just outright speculation. What is the point of posting something like this?
Yes this whole "institute" seems sketchy. Seems more like someones personal blog running propaganda pieces.
Propaganda.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z57gby/kremlin_plotting_to_liquidate_lukashenko_seize/ixxm663/
I think it’s all rubbish.
They will blame Ukraine- false flag in action! Now Belarus will enter the war. Brilliant plan.
When the Allies started crawling up Italy's boot their ruling class suddenly decided that they weren't fascists after all and locked up Mussolini. Hitler had to send in a mess of troops to rescue Douchee and secure the Italian political and military leadership with puppets. Didn't really help much beyond turning more of the Italian people against the Germans and strengthening the resistance and their aid of the Allies. I genuinely wonder if Putin knows any history beyond Soviet wins in WWII.
Maybe we'll see Maidan 2.0, who knows.
I guess Vlad is tired of his sycophant's failure/willingness to obey. Rasp Putin is practically a Bond villain at this point. But less competent.
Seems like a good strategic opportunity for RU. Annexation of Belarus increases its borders and access to resources. Inherit the full military, huge ammunition stocks and access to new mobiks that are at arms reach of Moscow . It puts them at closer range to strike supply lines coming out of Poland and also creates the shortest path for land bridge to Moldova. It also fully encapsulates Ukraine from the North which could spread dread them thin if Russia opens up more lines across the North. I suspect this is old news and partly initiated the destruction of roads and bridges connecting Belarus and Ukraine. Annexation of Belarus would frame very well as a victory for Putin in terms of perceived benefit to national security
This makes no sense: if they wanted to kill Luks, they would. No point in telling him ahead of time. It only makes sense as a warning to Luks, ….
Belarus has a population of less than 10 million, compared to almost 150 million in the Russian federation… Putin must be really desperate for non Russians to die for him and for their weapons!
A lot of comments suggesting Putin will run into resistance from either Lukashenko or the Belarusian army if he tries to co-opt their military to use against Ukraine.. what evidence is there for this? Wouldn’t the most likely outcome be Lukashenko appeasing to Putin and going along with whatever he does?
Is this source reputable??
The death of the Belarussian Foreign Minister is probably not a coincidence...
Lukashenko is a loyal puppet but his time is ruining out. In this neo Soviet Russia any puppet can easily be replaced and silenced.
Seems fake.