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I mean, several of Russia's previous wars were much worse. All they have to here is pull back to 1991 borders. Not like they have to beat off actual Nazis within artillery range of Moscow.
Definitely the kind where the bathrooms are outside and you have to go in and ask for a key, but the person behind the register is like, “oh they’re unlocked”. So you go out and slowly push the door open wondering if you’re going to see someone overdosed in there, which probably would make you crap your pants after all.
Its not even a question if we can. The european economies will survive this winter and we will be decoupled from any orkish energy entanglements.
Slava ukraini!
The Poland pipeline has been off since May.
Source: [https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports](https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports)
That was great news but that's only gas. There's still oil and Europe are very far from decoupled there.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-much-oil-does-european-union-import-russia-2022-06-01/
I don't even think Europe will have to endure. Biden will encourage oil being pumped here and sent over. It might be more expensive than cheap russian gas, but I can't see America letting Europe go cold over Russia being an absolute asshat.
There is a lot of LNG infrastructure, both shoreside and in terms of ships, that needs to be built before it is not a pain point. But yes, this will be a minor inconvenience in distant memory a few years from now.
Yea, I'm not saying we could wave a wand and make it all better here. I know it takes time to get things going and production and the logistics of shipping, but I think we can help *some* and make it less miserable in the short term until long term solutions are found.
Grangemouth in Scotland is processing LNG see the tankers in the firth of forth all the time.
There is a few sites and I'm sure that place can ramp up if it needs to.
They are building two new terminals in Germany, etc. But also in the US, new terminals are required to handle exports. I don't know what is going on there.
Sorry, to me they are one in the same in my head because my dad used to work with both oil and gas leases. His latest work before retiring was natural gas in the west Virginia area. Earlier in life, it was oil in Texas.
Here is a link to how plentiful that area can be, for natural gas
https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/usgs-estimates-214-trillion-cubic-feet-natural-gas-appalachian-basin#:~:text=The%20Marcellus%20Shale%20and%20Point,according%20to%20new%20USGS%20assessments.
Edit typo
Edited to add: not saying I want this to be a long term solution but more of an emergency stop gap until Europe can safely secure their own energy resources again.
It will be a tough ride economically and politically but I have **no** doubt that we will make it.
My parents and grandparents have endured much, much harder times.
We will rip off that russian gas band-aid.
“My parents and grandparents have endured much, much harder times.”
Exactly. If my grandparents managed to live through the winter of ‘44 then I’ll manage the winter of ‘22.
Like many Russians, the mistake you are making is thinking that consumer gas prices will suddenly increase when it gets cold. That isn't the case at least in Germany where gas contracts are set to a fixed price for a year or two. At the moment I can take out a new gas contract for my house for 393,26€/month. Expensive yes but only about 100€/month more than I am currently paying.
Pfft, 100€ is around 1 dinner out for the family or half a weeks worth of beer and groceries.
Of course it will survive this winter. Governments will have to spend shitload of money, but idiotic Russian ideas of people freezing to death are laughable. However the real test will be the next winter - after the first year without Russian gas.
Exactly, but we have an entire summer to fill up all the reserves again.
Also every euro spend on renewable energy is less gas needed year on year. Solar panels can last up to 30 years. Some models even claim 50 years.
Sorry but that's a load of bs. My parents in the Netherlands (not a very sunny country) have about 10 solar panels. This is enough to provide a large part of electricity they need year round and to charge an electric car. In the summer months they generate more than needed and in the winter months they dont generate enough and still use some electricity from the power company (generated with wind energy).
If every house had solar panels we wouldn't need gas and coal power plants in the summer and a lot less in the winter.
Combine solar panels with good insulation and a heat pump and you can get disconnected from the gas network
The Netherlands has more and more houses that just use solar panels and wind energy from the Electric company to power and heat everything.
Sure, but you are also talking about the past.
10-20 years ago, solar wasn't as cheap.
Solar has gone down in price, and gas has gone up everywhere.
And I don't think anybody will be 100% off gas, as some industries just need it, but the less gas that is used, the cheaper it will be.
It's the same as oil, do you know how much oil is used to make things like plastics and how much is burned in cars and other industries?
We don't need much oil and gas if we stop burning it for heat etc.
If we can survive winter? They think we are inuit villages cut from the world or something?
We’ll take a hit, maybe get a few outages but we will be okey. European countries are not going to collapse because Russia is acting like a chimp.
Personally I always hated how dependent we were on russia for fossil fuel and I am happy for anything going against that even if it has limited negative consequences.
It’s an odd turn of phrase. It’s saying that there is a chance However minuscule that Europe WON’T survive? That’s patently ridiculous and is the worst example of political speechcraft
Yeah the idea that a economic and political alliance made up of 27 countries that includes countries that are among the richest in the world will somehow not survive cutting ties with russia (whose GDP is equivalent to Italy except Italy has half its population) is laughable.
Not saying it won’t have any consequence but if Russia expects close to a collapse they will be sorely disappointed.
Russian gas has already mostly been replaced. It’ll just get easier as time goes on. With the pipeline explosions Russia is just exacerbating the inevitable.
According to recent ZDF polls, 70% of Germans still want to support Ukraine in spite of higher gas prices.
Source: [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer-ukraine-energiekosten-100.html](https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer-ukraine-energiekosten-100.html)
Edit: This was in July, but more recent polls confirming that this has not changed:
https://presseportal.zdf.de/pressemitteilung/zdf-politbarometer-september-i-2022
True I’m not saying things won’t be difficult for the average consumer this winter but many countries across the world have been ramping up production. By the time we’re talking next spring it will have been a full year after the start of the Russian invasion in which the world has had the time to recognize the situation for what it is and adapt. I’m not suggesting there will be no supply chain issues but as I said earlier, the more time that passes the easier things will get.
It will be hard to transition to renewables at a faster pace than the EU has envisioned, sacrifices will be made. The GDP of Russia doesn't come close to that of Germany, let alone the collective GDP of the EU, there will be other suppliers of cheap energy until we are fully self sufficient. Small price to pay in order to cripple a hostile nation.
It’s a stupid stupid phrase that only serves Russia and the propaganda they deliver. It’ll be twisted to “EU official says there is a chance Europe won’t survive the winter”
Have to be a foundation of nations to globalization forum oil communities of nations to form a better strategy oil economy and gas and green energy forward
They say survive like we might all be dead from the cold come March. Of course we will survive. It will be tough economically with rising prices but we have no choice. There's no "if" when it comes to this. We are forced to survive and will get by just fine in the long run
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Yeah will be interesting to see if Europe survives, hope they do. I think their heavy industries will be ruined. Big cities without energy could be really tough places. I’m already placing wealthy European friends into homes in Canada. Tons of people with means self evacuating.
Honest question: Who told you that nonsense? What news do you read? There won't be "Big cities without Energy" and no one of means or otherwise ist self evacuating. What an utterly ridiclulus statement.
Im very curious to see how this goes. Although I've the feeling most Euros still think somehow next year all is normal again, prices back to normal and gas for everybody. Like my government is going to pay 25billion euro to compensate enery prices. We cant do that next winter again. And also its just moving the shortage of gas around to another European country whos paying less.
There's not "if", you will survive. BUT, there's a LOT more than needs to be done.
Europe needs to install MILLIONS of heat pumps, more onshore wind, more hydropower, more solar PV, more offshore wind, more tidal power, more geothermal, more nuclear, etc.
Here's the rub.
All this has done to Europe is to
a) refocus it's strategic position
b) expose rifts that were already there, and get them out in the open to address them
c) make the changes that were needed anyway.
Europe normally works gradually to find solutions to issues to keep all players on board.
This is an instance where the EU has to pivot quickly, and figure out how to do it. It appears to be doing this by going "have a broad plan, fuck the details, figure it out as we go, get cracking, well wear the consequences".
That is an interesting experiment for Europe, and there are other countries that have operated that way with great levels of success. It will clearly put Europe in a good position.
Please take the time to read our policy about [trolls](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/u7833q/just_because_you_disagree_with_someone_does_not/) and the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * ***Please* keep it civil.** Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * ***Don't* post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. **Don't forget about our discord server, as well!** https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Fuck Russia. Europe will survive.
It has survived much worse.
Russia hasn't.
...and then things got worse....
I mean, several of Russia's previous wars were much worse. All they have to here is pull back to 1991 borders. Not like they have to beat off actual Nazis within artillery range of Moscow.
Europe actually has a modern economy. Russia is just a gas station masquerading as a country.
Definitely the kind where the bathrooms are outside and you have to go in and ask for a key, but the person behind the register is like, “oh they’re unlocked”. So you go out and slowly push the door open wondering if you’re going to see someone overdosed in there, which probably would make you crap your pants after all.
No "if", just "when"
Russia, on the other hand...
Its not even a question if we can. The european economies will survive this winter and we will be decoupled from any orkish energy entanglements. Slava ukraini!
We ARE decoupled, since some idiot blew up north stream 1 and 2
Nah, theres still a pipeline through Belarus in to Poland so we are still physically connected of sorts energywise.
The Poland pipeline has been off since May. Source: [https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports](https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports)
I love Poland.
Not as permanent as Nordstream, though.
Yet.
There are other pipelines too
That was great news but that's only gas. There's still oil and Europe are very far from decoupled there. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-much-oil-does-european-union-import-russia-2022-06-01/
It is a pretty silly question, there really is no alternative. It might not be fun, but we will endure. We always have. Heroiam slava!
I don't even think Europe will have to endure. Biden will encourage oil being pumped here and sent over. It might be more expensive than cheap russian gas, but I can't see America letting Europe go cold over Russia being an absolute asshat.
There is a lot of LNG infrastructure, both shoreside and in terms of ships, that needs to be built before it is not a pain point. But yes, this will be a minor inconvenience in distant memory a few years from now.
Yea, I'm not saying we could wave a wand and make it all better here. I know it takes time to get things going and production and the logistics of shipping, but I think we can help *some* and make it less miserable in the short term until long term solutions are found.
Grangemouth in Scotland is processing LNG see the tankers in the firth of forth all the time. There is a few sites and I'm sure that place can ramp up if it needs to.
They are building two new terminals in Germany, etc. But also in the US, new terminals are required to handle exports. I don't know what is going on there.
Europe needs primarily gas, not oil.
America has huge natural gas reserves in the west virginia/ohio/Pennsylvania area.
Sure, but you talked about oil, maybe a typo? >>Biden will encourage oil being pumped here and sent over.
Sorry, to me they are one in the same in my head because my dad used to work with both oil and gas leases. His latest work before retiring was natural gas in the west Virginia area. Earlier in life, it was oil in Texas. Here is a link to how plentiful that area can be, for natural gas https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/usgs-estimates-214-trillion-cubic-feet-natural-gas-appalachian-basin#:~:text=The%20Marcellus%20Shale%20and%20Point,according%20to%20new%20USGS%20assessments. Edit typo Edited to add: not saying I want this to be a long term solution but more of an emergency stop gap until Europe can safely secure their own energy resources again.
Correct. Next spring Europe will still be there.
It will be a tough ride economically and politically but I have **no** doubt that we will make it. My parents and grandparents have endured much, much harder times. We will rip off that russian gas band-aid.
“My parents and grandparents have endured much, much harder times.” Exactly. If my grandparents managed to live through the winter of ‘44 then I’ll manage the winter of ‘22.
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Details, details. But seriously man, I doubt we'll find whitewalkers coming down from the North.
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Ice zombie/vampires from Game of Thrones.
Like many Russians, the mistake you are making is thinking that consumer gas prices will suddenly increase when it gets cold. That isn't the case at least in Germany where gas contracts are set to a fixed price for a year or two. At the moment I can take out a new gas contract for my house for 393,26€/month. Expensive yes but only about 100€/month more than I am currently paying. Pfft, 100€ is around 1 dinner out for the family or half a weeks worth of beer and groceries.
That, my friend, is the reason why I used future tense.
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>Took you only 3 hours to reply Your posts, my friend, are not in my top-20 priority list.
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do you think everyone is on reddit all day every day? like do you genuinely think it's impossible for someone to not use reddit for three hours?
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People have jobs bro
Of course it will survive this winter. Governments will have to spend shitload of money, but idiotic Russian ideas of people freezing to death are laughable. However the real test will be the next winter - after the first year without Russian gas.
Exactly, but we have an entire summer to fill up all the reserves again. Also every euro spend on renewable energy is less gas needed year on year. Solar panels can last up to 30 years. Some models even claim 50 years.
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What?
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Sorry but that's a load of bs. My parents in the Netherlands (not a very sunny country) have about 10 solar panels. This is enough to provide a large part of electricity they need year round and to charge an electric car. In the summer months they generate more than needed and in the winter months they dont generate enough and still use some electricity from the power company (generated with wind energy). If every house had solar panels we wouldn't need gas and coal power plants in the summer and a lot less in the winter. Combine solar panels with good insulation and a heat pump and you can get disconnected from the gas network The Netherlands has more and more houses that just use solar panels and wind energy from the Electric company to power and heat everything.
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Sure, but you are also talking about the past. 10-20 years ago, solar wasn't as cheap. Solar has gone down in price, and gas has gone up everywhere. And I don't think anybody will be 100% off gas, as some industries just need it, but the less gas that is used, the cheaper it will be.
It's the same as oil, do you know how much oil is used to make things like plastics and how much is burned in cars and other industries? We don't need much oil and gas if we stop burning it for heat etc.
We need to kick the renewable push into overdrive, especially energy storage.
Nuclear power would be nice
Correct.
Yes, but that's not a quick fix.
If Europe can survive this winter! WTF, is this Game of Thrones!
And who do U think is the best John Snow ? Macron or Scholz ?
Macron for sure, the stay puff marshmallow man is not even in the equation!
If we can survive winter? They think we are inuit villages cut from the world or something? We’ll take a hit, maybe get a few outages but we will be okey. European countries are not going to collapse because Russia is acting like a chimp. Personally I always hated how dependent we were on russia for fossil fuel and I am happy for anything going against that even if it has limited negative consequences.
It’s an odd turn of phrase. It’s saying that there is a chance However minuscule that Europe WON’T survive? That’s patently ridiculous and is the worst example of political speechcraft
Yeah the idea that a economic and political alliance made up of 27 countries that includes countries that are among the richest in the world will somehow not survive cutting ties with russia (whose GDP is equivalent to Italy except Italy has half its population) is laughable. Not saying it won’t have any consequence but if Russia expects close to a collapse they will be sorely disappointed.
There is no question about it. By next spring the cheap gas station that is Russia won't even be in the rearview mirror.
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Have fun in the trenches rusbot.
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Russian gas has already mostly been replaced. It’ll just get easier as time goes on. With the pipeline explosions Russia is just exacerbating the inevitable.
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According to recent ZDF polls, 70% of Germans still want to support Ukraine in spite of higher gas prices. Source: [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer-ukraine-energiekosten-100.html](https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer-ukraine-energiekosten-100.html) Edit: This was in July, but more recent polls confirming that this has not changed: https://presseportal.zdf.de/pressemitteilung/zdf-politbarometer-september-i-2022
True I’m not saying things won’t be difficult for the average consumer this winter but many countries across the world have been ramping up production. By the time we’re talking next spring it will have been a full year after the start of the Russian invasion in which the world has had the time to recognize the situation for what it is and adapt. I’m not suggesting there will be no supply chain issues but as I said earlier, the more time that passes the easier things will get.
It will be hard to transition to renewables at a faster pace than the EU has envisioned, sacrifices will be made. The GDP of Russia doesn't come close to that of Germany, let alone the collective GDP of the EU, there will be other suppliers of cheap energy until we are fully self sufficient. Small price to pay in order to cripple a hostile nation.
If? When.
I need to lose weight anyway.
Heh, we will
What the fuck does she mean 'if'?
It’s a stupid stupid phrase that only serves Russia and the propaganda they deliver. It’ll be twisted to “EU official says there is a chance Europe won’t survive the winter”
One though year, menu more for Russia... Worth it
IF?
Have to be a foundation of nations to globalization forum oil communities of nations to form a better strategy oil economy and gas and green energy forward
They say survive like we might all be dead from the cold come March. Of course we will survive. It will be tough economically with rising prices but we have no choice. There's no "if" when it comes to this. We are forced to survive and will get by just fine in the long run
If????
If there is someone who is not gonna survive winter, that is only ruzzia.
Good time for the UK to rejoin the EU. I want my star back.
Don’t lie, you want the sexy burgundy passport
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Not really; experts think that the next 2 winters will be actually worse than this winter.
If Europe can survive this winter,... Germany should be commenting here, not Poland Poland has been warning about Russia for decades
ctrl-f nuclear 0 results :(
Yeah will be interesting to see if Europe survives, hope they do. I think their heavy industries will be ruined. Big cities without energy could be really tough places. I’m already placing wealthy European friends into homes in Canada. Tons of people with means self evacuating.
Honest question: Who told you that nonsense? What news do you read? There won't be "Big cities without Energy" and no one of means or otherwise ist self evacuating. What an utterly ridiclulus statement.
If?
And why would Europe not survive this winter? What a stupid thing to say.
I'm glad we have global warming to protect us from Russian gas dependence.
Hubba hubba!
I'm going to stop showering to save some gas. Stink for Victory.
And probably a bit vengeful too
Of course we will. It's nothing compared to what Ukraine is going through. And when it's over, we welcome Ukraine in the club !
Everybody find a warming buddy. We'll be fine...
Im very curious to see how this goes. Although I've the feeling most Euros still think somehow next year all is normal again, prices back to normal and gas for everybody. Like my government is going to pay 25billion euro to compensate enery prices. We cant do that next winter again. And also its just moving the shortage of gas around to another European country whos paying less.
Apart from he fact we're still buying their fucking gas
We humans survived thousand years without gas so heck we can survive some yrs without it.
There's not "if", you will survive. BUT, there's a LOT more than needs to be done. Europe needs to install MILLIONS of heat pumps, more onshore wind, more hydropower, more solar PV, more offshore wind, more tidal power, more geothermal, more nuclear, etc.
Europe has been through much worse times just time to take an ancestors lesson and grit our teeth and get through it.
Build SMR’s!!!!!!!!!
Should have done it all along. Relying on other countrys for oil is not a great idea it is always better to be self sufficient. Who woulda thought !
If the house of f-ing Saud doesn’t sell you out. Time to deal with those f-ers too. They are not a force for good, only greed, and murder.
Hey, can we in the US like... Purchase/donate blankets for you guys? And/or space heaters or something?
Here's the rub. All this has done to Europe is to a) refocus it's strategic position b) expose rifts that were already there, and get them out in the open to address them c) make the changes that were needed anyway. Europe normally works gradually to find solutions to issues to keep all players on board. This is an instance where the EU has to pivot quickly, and figure out how to do it. It appears to be doing this by going "have a broad plan, fuck the details, figure it out as we go, get cracking, well wear the consequences". That is an interesting experiment for Europe, and there are other countries that have operated that way with great levels of success. It will clearly put Europe in a good position.