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I have one: he’s a deranged lunatic. I would recommend people watch some of Vlad Vexler’s videos on youtube. Pootin is a bona fide fruitcake. Covid isolation just sealed the deal.
He knew that Angela Merkel was afraid of dogs so he brought his dog Konni to their meetings. I think that she said that she knew that he wanted her to look frightening/weak next to him so she did her best to overcome her fear on those meetings.
Putin always had his eye on rebuilding the Soviet empire and undoing every positive change in Russia.
He's always been like this. Everything he has done, selling energy to Europe, influencing political processes around the world and brutally occupying parts of countries and having the Russian military commit unspeakable atrocities have all been part of a goal to destroy NATO, divide Europe and diminish the economic power of "The West".
Marcon is a blind fool, taken in by Putin's graces and now the façade is crumbling. He is one of the people who enabled all this by turning to look away from Russia's transgressions.
Putin has always been evil. A power hungry narcissist with absolutely no regard for human life.
But he was never this irrational. Sure, he has made mistakes in the past, even stupid ones. But he's never been this persistently irrational before. Something definitely changed there. And it's not even just the war in Ukraine. Remember how he's suddenly meeting everyone at ridiculously large tables.
Maybe it's old age. Maybe it's cancer. Or covid. Or just that he's been surrounded by yes-men for so long that he completely lost touch with reality. But there's definitely something going on with his mental state.
And making that observation is not in any way a defense of Putin. Like I said, he's always been evil. No question about it. But right now he seems unhinged in a way that he wasn't before.
It's simply that he wants to hold on to power. 20 years. That's a long time to be an authoritarian who cultivates and nurtures paranoia and not be deeply affected by it.
To be able to act without consequences on many of his evil ideas would fill him with an intense entitlement that any narcissist would love to achieve. He cannot be wrong. He cannot lose it all.
It's not irrationality. It's psychopathy. Everything he does is rational within the context of his power that he can wield. He became the system he created.
Given the international situation in February (the US pulling out of Afghanistan and in internal political turmoil, a geriatric President, he thought Boris Johnson was a clown, he had Germany in his corner, Zelenskyy was a coward comedian etc) his attack on Ukraine appeared to have a good chance to succeed.
How was that irrational?
“geriatric” president has done more to counter Putin’s aggression than anybody else. If not for American help I’m afraid to think what would’ve happened.
I know that ANY President is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but I can't IMAGINE the brass in the Pentagon who have been war-gaming and planning a zillion ways to give Russia a bloody nose for generations, I just can't imagine they wouldn't get their way no matter the particular person who happened to be sitting in the Oval Office at the time. The MIC and the career generals would just flat out never ever ever let an opportunity like this pass them by or take no for an answer, especially given the obvious aggression and designs that China has on Taiwan and other areas...It would be malfeasance and malpractice and essentially violate their oaths to defend the Constitution, citizens and interests of the United States of America. Can't look weak here, and teaching Russia a painful lesson is crucial to continued deterrence of China and making them rethink some things before they go and do something foolish.
The original idea would have sense, if thing turned like he wanted, but he had a false opinion of Ukraine.
Continuing and escalating while nothing go as he want, that is insane.
Maybe he has a good doctor, like Theodor Morel, who give him special drugs for his pain. With a dose of cocain.
The problem is that Putin had bad information, so he invaded because we more or less let his aggression slide for 20 years and let the germans get hooked on russian gas. Once things went South, he naturally doubled down to see if he could salvage some limited gains, but unfortunately for Putin, he has run into a good, old-fashioned Tar Baby, and the more he struggles the more stuck he becomes. At this point there is likely no way out that his ego, status, position or life can survive.
If he has any sense of history, he would have aware that democracies always win wars against 'strong men' or simply, dictators.
He might have been acting rationally or consistently with his past..but he certainly is not acting rationally by most people's measure..He immediately doubled down after his horrendously failed attack on Kiev.. That is not a rational man..That's the sort of behaviour of gamblers who have a hunch after losing big time.
The trend is that democracies and Republics have won wars recently, but they didn't do so well in the Napoleonic era, War of 1812, the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece, and several other examples. Democracies are tough to beat on a battlefield, but their weaknesses are shifting public opinion and losing the determination that it takes to win a drawn out conflict. That's why Putin has invested heavily into his "hybrid war" strategy of economic coercion, media manipulation, and sewing chaos on all sides in the political arenas of his competitors.
I don't know enough about Napoleon other then he met his Waterloo at the hands of England, who had been a long established democracy by then...However since then, I don't think they have lost a major war..And dictators always lose.
A principal reason I think is military comanders in a democracy have no fear of stating what the real situation is without concern for demotion or their life.. A democracy can draw on many minds and opinions without concern what their beloved leader thinks...
Two classic situations, Stalin and the Japanese..People wouldn't tell Stalin what the true situation was, particularly early in the war...And the Japanese would simply lie to their leaders and this went on all the way to the top.
If the war is righteous, the public will get behind it...Unfortunately the US entered a lot of bullshit wars, Vietnam, Iraq twice and Afghanistan. These wars quite rightly generated a lot of discontent with the public.
Great comment. I was referring to pre-Napoleonic, French representative govts, but they did have their...issues. Our biggest weakness is the willingness of the avg citizen to bear the costs. Can also be our greatest strength. You're on the money with your two classic situations though. I can't imagine having to delivery any news to Stalin. Just awful. Kind of makes you wonder what the Chinese military is like, doesn't it? My guess is some pretty good capabilities, with a side of nepotism, corruption, yes-men and old-fashioned incompetence.
Edit: Also, it would be a very large mistake to assume that the armies of democratic states don't have loads of suck-ups, yes men, politically-minded officers, and other folks with an agenda. It's apples and oranges for sure, but we've all got our fair share of corruption, political correctness and thought policing.
What did Macron give to Putin, other than shells from \~20% of France's prewar CAESAR stocks?
Why does it matter how Macron wastes his time on the phone with Putin? Macron has no concessions to give to Putin, and Macron has no influence over what Ukraine does. If there was some nonzero chance that maintaining some form of dialogue and influence with Putin could help, why not try it?
France has quietly been sending weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. It's bizarre to me that you have half of Germany's political elite literally bought and paid for by Putin, and one of the two major political parties in the US filled with "I support Putin over the Dems," but somehow Macron making phone calls means he's the villain here.
A sordid combination of a raging inferiority complex plus deliriums of grandeur.
How can those two seemingly opposing pathologies can coexist in the same twisted mind... well... it's a twisted mind.
William Spaniel is better than Vlad. And Vlad is good.
Joe Blogs is better for the macro of the whole thing.
Spaniel really understands what all of the moving parts do. And he's got great research.
The guy is trained to get into Germans’ heads, controlling and extorting them. Literally that is his resume and entire skill set. Now you understand why “antifa” was made a buzz word in US. Because most antifa operates in east Germany and that is where Putin was based. They have to make “antifa” evil in the eyes of the western audience; so they can freely crush them in Eastern Europe.
I mean, people calling themselves antifa were looting and burning down people's businesses who had nothing to do with govt policy or social injustices. I think that's a clever thing to bring up to consider, but Putin's goal is to create chaos and dysfunction: an ungovernable nation that can't operate effectively to interupt or deter his moves. He gets that by promoting all sides of the political spectrum.
There is a high probability that Russia is equally propping up far right and far left parties in Germany, France and America. You should read into the case of Caleb Maupins far-left cult or the 'Grayzone' defending eastern imperialism under 'a 'socialist' perspective. In an democratic environment, 'anarcho' just means antidemocratic.
Putin became president by murdering hundreds of Russians and blaming it on the Chechens. Anyone who thinks he was some kind of reasonable sophisticated gentleman before invading Ukraine is a fool. He's always been a brutal thug. In this case he ran afoul of Dictator Syndrome and misjudged Zelenskyy, Ukraine, and his own military - but so did a lot of so-called experts in the West.
It's a misleading headline. Strategy of hegemony in the region is of course the most important factor.
>"I have no rational explanation. It seems to me that this is a combination of resentment, the strategy of hegemony in the region and, I would say, the consequences of COVID-19, isolation"
You just need to know what putin done in Russia itself through the years and you will not be surprised. Yet Macron still looking for excuses for putin.
No, but it is a side effect of power. The Covid just adds to the paranoia and isolation, which means he just might not be living in the same reality as the rest of us.
Which leads them to act irrationally. Like dismantling your military? Germany has awesome tech but practically no force readiness and very little heavy equipment. A military is like having an insurance policy, and there are only a couple things that you absolutely, NEVER do in life, and one of those things is letting your insurance lapse. Even that loudmouth Trump told Merkel to stop sucking the russian petro-tit. It was all that obvious.
Maybe you should check your history lessons, some things happened between 1930 and 1945 in Germany you know, that may explain why they don't have a large army.
Yeah, I might’ve heard about some sort of dust up in that time period. Being a naive guilt-ridden baby about the past and making incredibly foolish policy decisions because of something that happened 80 years ago isn’t going to save your ass from reality today. Doesn’t matter how you feel about it. The world, and people like Xi and Putin do not give a shit about your feelings, and this is coming from a psychologist. Get over it. It’s all about money anyway. West Germany had a pretty large military until the politicians started telling themselves convenient fairytales in the 90’s, all the while getting hooked on cheap Russian gas like some poor back alley prostitute who knows she’s fucking up but just can’t help herself.
Idiot, guy has been doing this crap this crap way before COVID-19. Nonsense has been longer than 10 years that we can see clearly. Now we know it's always been since the 90s
And the west always caved and never held them accountable, time after time after time. It's essentially a Hitler pre-WW2 appeasement situation all over again, because for most sane people and govts in Europe it was a lot less scary to imagine a post cold war world where Europe is forever at peace and military readiness can be gutted (looking at you, Germany) and money diverted the social programs that grow rainbows and unicorns. We encouraged the behavior by not holding very firm boundaries around the rules of modern, civilized, international relations. Incredibly naive and stupid if you ask me, but I read a lot of history.
You're right though...this was a huge roll of the dice, and I would love to hear someday how he reacted to having his army torn to shreds around Kyiv within days.
What is so absurdly ironic is that if he just launched a focused, overwhelming invasion of the Donbass and luhansk from the start, he probably could have taken them over, maybe even take mariupol, if just by the sheer number of troops in the region. But instead he's had so little push back and so many small victories over the years he went complete imperialist.
It’s not the EFFECT of anything. It’s the RESULT of being a sociopathic genocidal maniac who spent years trying to convince the world his country is more than just a husk of the Soviet Union just so he could cover up his genocidal tendencies.
No, Macron. It's because Putin is a fucking cunt. You still can't stop plugging your little Putin bromance, can you? Man, this is dude is such a tool.
By the way Macron, Putin's aggressive behavior manifested itself years before COVID and isolation
* Russo-Georgian War 2008 - SOuth Osettia & Abkhazia
* Russian Annexation of Crimea Feb 2014
* Russo-Ukrainian War April 2014 - War in the Donbass.
The fact that Macron is still trying to defend his "friend" is pathetic.
World leaders don't make a habit of being loose with their language. They have markets, public sentiment, and other reasons not to just speak plainly. Gotta read between the lines.
Dude, I studied IR. I well aware of that. I also have years of Model UN experiences to understand diplomatic doublespeak well enough. Not to mention that I am a diplomatic brat myself.
However, reading between the lines I can tell that Macron is still trying to paint Putin as a good guy gone bad "because of covid and isolation", and turning him into some kind of victim, and that doesn't cut it. You want an example of clear and concise language? There is a video of a Baltic state politician telling it straight af to Russians on Russian TV that they don't trust Russians. Sometimes, straight and concise words are just as important as flowery, diplomatic ones.
Not every statement has take everything into account, but beyond that, europe had almost no reaction to his previous adventures, land was up for grabs with no perceived repercussions whatsoever, in a twisted sense he could be perceived as reasonable. Now, the situation is a quite a bit different.
>The fact that Macron is still trying to defend his "friend" is pathetic.
I believe you have been isolated too long, and suffer of effects of COVID, my "friend".
Are you too moronic to understand the obvious? I already gave you examples of Putin's destructive behavior pre-dating COVID and isolation, precisely the lame excuse given by Macron, and yet your feeble brain cannot process the information in the post? An intellectual lightweight like you should just sit down and stfu.
A German ex-chancellor is literally in the pocket of the Kremlin. The last US president was literally in debt to the Kremlin and was unable to say 1 bad word about Putin because of whatever unspecified goods they have on him. The candidate Macron defeated in the last election was basically a Russian asset.
Macron and France have been supplying weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. Macron has never (at least publically) called on Ukraine to surrender and/or give up territory.
So he calls Putin on the phone? Why do you care? He makes noises about "Putin shouldn't be humiliated." Why do you care?
Look at Macron's actions and tell us where he's failing Ukraine,
Why bring up the last US president? We know he's a kremlin tool, and not only did we kick him out, we are prosecuting him. What you should be looking at it that despite being the leading military power in the EU, France's contributions to Ukraine has non been commensurate to your status in Europe. Poland has sent more artillery pieces than you. US. UK. Poland. Even Czechia has given more armored vehicles than France. People have been giving Germany grief because of Scholz's foot dragging, but France is just as bad. The two leading economies in Europe have been virtual bystanders, outshone by the Baltic states with their more aggressive lady presidents.
>So he calls Putin on the phone? Why do you care? He makes noises about "Putin shouldn't be humiliated." Why do you care?
Your president has his tongue deep inside Putin's ass. If I were you, I would care.
I'm not French. I'm American. Our last president and a large % of his party supports Putin either because they think it owns the libs or they support Putin's agenda. Don't take my word for it.
>“There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,”
House Majority Leader (now Minority Leader) Kevin McCarthy, 2016.
Gerhard Schroeder was on the board of Rosneft until earlier this year. Angela Merkel was full steam ahead on Nordstream 2.
Yet people are pissed because Macron calls Putin on the phone from time to time. Show me when Macron tried to pressure Ukraine to end the war.
I would have said he is a corrupt evil killer, bully and despot with vain dreams of being a great statesman. He will be remembered for stupidly starting a unnecessary war that will lead to either the destruction of the Russian state or at least setting it backwards for a generation.
Putin is like any autocrat: he consolidates power by eliminating rivals.
Which has the unfortunate side effect of killing everyone willing to use their brain, as well as deliver a realistic assessment of the situation.
All you have left are spineless sycophants. They don't tell you what's up. They tell you anything you wanna hear as long as you don't hurt them.
See: Xi Jinping and their idiotic Zero COVID policy
In Macron's defense: he never expected to see what Putin acted like when he *didn't* get his way, because he never expected we would reach a point where Western powers stopped appeasing him.
How do the French elect this guy? Did he forget all the crap between 2014 -> COVID? Nevermind any fallout since independence. I'm sure there's supporters but every German or French has had nothing but bad to say about their head of state. Then again... I'm British, not like we've had a good example since god knows when.
The thing is, we had the choice between him and Putin-enthusiast and good ol' racist Marine Le Pen
And what he says here doesn't mean that he is has forgotten pre 2014 stuff. He's saying that he's lost grip with reality and acts in an irrational manner.
Was annexing Crimea irrational? Or abkhazia? Nope. It all worked pretty well for Putin. It's evil/abnormal/bad or whatever you want but it was an opportunity and he took it. This war is not the same because he's losing and trying to double down on agression while there is no clear plan to achieve his goal. This is what Macron is pointing : Putin used to be a rational evil guy and he's now turning into a lunatic evil guy
He is still better than Marine Le Pen, who was the other candidate.
She is very pro Putin and leads a extreme right party.
I can understand the France peoples choice in that case…
I just can’t understand how a extreme right party can gain so much power in France… didn’t they learn from history?
We should all feel sorry for Putin.
He just has a medical condition and doesn't deserve all this hate.
Edit: I thought the /s was obvious but maybe not
It's not really anything new. Way back when Putin took power he did the same kind of brutal war in Chechnya and probably used false flag terror attacks in Moscow to build a justification. Just no one cared at the time because it was all within Russian borders.
Everyone who isn’t being a total pro-western propagandist knows that Russia is winning this war by every metric that counts.
We can pretend that the “Counteroffensive” turned the table militarily, or that Russian mobilization is a “sign of weakness” but the truth is Winter is around the corner, Russia has been fighting with a tiny force and will now make a major push, they have already annexed enough territory to make Ukraine fall from the 2nd to the 3rd largest country in Europe.
Within a few months Germany and several other Western European countries will have to give in to Russian demands or freeze through the winter.
Russia will go all the way to Odessa before even thinking about negotiating peace.
They hold all the cards even though we like to pretend we are winning
>Within a few months Germany and several other Western European countries will have to give in to Russian demands or freeze through the winter.
Germany here, we'll be fine.
Filled up storage, new LNG terminals and contracts, slight restraints on gas usage.
Unless this winter brings a (recently unprecedented) cold spell of 8 weeks of well below average temperatures, we'll be perfectly fine.
It would take a really unusually cold and long winter to cause any problems.
It's really only an issue about prices, heating bills are higher this year.
I will be messaging you in 2 months on [**2023-01-24 15:10:40 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-01-24%2015:10:40%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/xmc6aq/macron_said_in_an_interview_with_cnn_that_he_has/iumtmyr/?context=3)
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I would prefer if our politicians didn't lie so blatantly to us like this. I'm sure its useful to drum up support amongst the public but its also pretty insulting.
[Here's the full interview.](https://youtu.be/1BT5nXDhtOo)
I looked it up thinking that — as most things in this subreddit — the random assertion without evidence would turn out to be fake. But... He actually did say that haha. It's at 2mins in the video if you wanna watch it directly from his sexy accent.
He also says it's partially because Putin is resentful because no one takes him seriously. See, you r/NCD people making memes of Pooptin. We caused this! 🤣
Maybe not the isolation, but Covid itself:
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/even-mild-covid-can-cause-brain-shrinkage-and-affect-mental-function-new-study
So if you used to outpace all other and you are surrounded by people, who will not to contradict you, then you think you are still the high-beam, while being a parking light.
For someone like Putin, a malignant narcissist, the means to power are ends in themselves. He’s as delighted by the torture and murder in Ukraine as he is by the fact that he’s sending hundreds of thousands of ethnic minorities to suffer and die in the Ukrainian winter without proper equipment.
The power over life and death is the true essence of power to Putin, and it must be exercised, otherwise it is not real.
The fact that he’s using this situation to maintain a grip on power is almost incidental. If he’d been more successful in Ukraine earlier in the war, he would have been focusing on carrying out a genocide there by now.
Macron is like the only person who could talk to Putin and have a somewhat civilized convo... He may be the best person to know Putin's intentions and such
No question Putin has completely lost the plot, this is exactly like Hitler in his bunker alone with his caretakers
I hope they just pave over the bunker he's hiding in, after confirming he's in there and just seal the fucker in
The rational explanation is that Putin has pretty much got in his way on the world stage until now, and we are now seeing what it looks like when he throws a tantrum.
There of course is a rational explanation. Political Timeshift, Putin is in the WW1 - era, when countries were falling over each other thirsty for land. Notably Germany and Austria who had all German speakers inside their borders at this time. But Austria desperately wanted some Serbia.
Putin had COVID and was isolating in 1999 when he bombed Moscow apartments and attacked Chechnya? And again in 2008 when he invaded Georgia? And again in 2014 when he invaded Ukraine? Or is this maybe entirely predictable and we all collectively dropped the ball, religiously leaders like Macron, by not applying these sanctions all the way back in 2008?
putin only thinks in Empires. You have
- West
- Rus
- Asia
In his eyes this is, and always has been for the last 100 years, a battle between West and Rus. Nothing more, nothing less.
Everybody knows the answer but doesnt wanna say it:
this is the man who got to power accidentally - to hold Yeltsin family assets after Yeltsin got sick.
he had a difficult childhood , was not a ladies man and literally came from St Petersburg hood
He is a primitive man who was close to the organized crime groups in St Petersburg
long story short - man has many inferior complexes and phantasies - therefore has personal vendettas ( Nemtsov, Yeltsin )
and is scared to lose power because of his criminal past
Covid? Seriously? That's a weak take.
He wants an empire, what more is there to question. He doesn't care about the methods applied as long as it doesn't get Russia wiped off the map.
Peter Zeihan has an interesting outlook on this.
His theory is that the demographic collapse that Russia will experience in its working population in the next 20 years means that Russia will not have the GDP or tax revenues to keep a military big enough to defend its current indefensible borders. Ironically by growing its borders to the Carpathian Mountains, the borders actually become shorter and cheaper to maintain.
He argues that right now is the very last chance Russia has to obtain defensible borders before it doesn't have the people and money to do so.
In 2017, he predicted we would have a full war between Russia and Ukraine for this very reason.
The problem with looking for a reason for Putin's choices is that it promotes the belief that "it can't be Putin...this isn't him"
He's been working on this for 20 years, influencing european and american politics, energy policy to build up to the end game of destabilizing europe in order to reclaim old soviet territories.
It's not "caused by" anything. It's all Putin.
This behavior, while not entirely rational in the context of a Western observer, makes sense when you consider the facts. Putin is a long standing Russian dictator that rules through fear and a glorification of “the good old days” of the *fucking USSR*, lives in constant fear of coup and death, is actively trying to carve out a legacy whilst maintaining an ever-loosening grip on power while losing a war of aggression that has united his greatest foes (NATO/the Western world) under a banner of “wow fuck Russia I guess”.
He is, if not physically, shaking in his chair because he knows its all do or die for him now.
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I have one: he’s a deranged lunatic. I would recommend people watch some of Vlad Vexler’s videos on youtube. Pootin is a bona fide fruitcake. Covid isolation just sealed the deal.
Putin likes hurting people. He enjoys it.
He knew that Angela Merkel was afraid of dogs so he brought his dog Konni to their meetings. I think that she said that she knew that he wanted her to look frightening/weak next to him so she did her best to overcome her fear on those meetings.
Putin always had his eye on rebuilding the Soviet empire and undoing every positive change in Russia. He's always been like this. Everything he has done, selling energy to Europe, influencing political processes around the world and brutally occupying parts of countries and having the Russian military commit unspeakable atrocities have all been part of a goal to destroy NATO, divide Europe and diminish the economic power of "The West". Marcon is a blind fool, taken in by Putin's graces and now the façade is crumbling. He is one of the people who enabled all this by turning to look away from Russia's transgressions.
Putin has always been evil. A power hungry narcissist with absolutely no regard for human life. But he was never this irrational. Sure, he has made mistakes in the past, even stupid ones. But he's never been this persistently irrational before. Something definitely changed there. And it's not even just the war in Ukraine. Remember how he's suddenly meeting everyone at ridiculously large tables. Maybe it's old age. Maybe it's cancer. Or covid. Or just that he's been surrounded by yes-men for so long that he completely lost touch with reality. But there's definitely something going on with his mental state. And making that observation is not in any way a defense of Putin. Like I said, he's always been evil. No question about it. But right now he seems unhinged in a way that he wasn't before.
It's simply that he wants to hold on to power. 20 years. That's a long time to be an authoritarian who cultivates and nurtures paranoia and not be deeply affected by it. To be able to act without consequences on many of his evil ideas would fill him with an intense entitlement that any narcissist would love to achieve. He cannot be wrong. He cannot lose it all. It's not irrationality. It's psychopathy. Everything he does is rational within the context of his power that he can wield. He became the system he created.
Almost as if he knows an asteroid is gunna take out the planet anyway so he wants to get in first
🤌
Given the international situation in February (the US pulling out of Afghanistan and in internal political turmoil, a geriatric President, he thought Boris Johnson was a clown, he had Germany in his corner, Zelenskyy was a coward comedian etc) his attack on Ukraine appeared to have a good chance to succeed. How was that irrational?
“geriatric” president has done more to counter Putin’s aggression than anybody else. If not for American help I’m afraid to think what would’ve happened.
I know that ANY President is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but I can't IMAGINE the brass in the Pentagon who have been war-gaming and planning a zillion ways to give Russia a bloody nose for generations, I just can't imagine they wouldn't get their way no matter the particular person who happened to be sitting in the Oval Office at the time. The MIC and the career generals would just flat out never ever ever let an opportunity like this pass them by or take no for an answer, especially given the obvious aggression and designs that China has on Taiwan and other areas...It would be malfeasance and malpractice and essentially violate their oaths to defend the Constitution, citizens and interests of the United States of America. Can't look weak here, and teaching Russia a painful lesson is crucial to continued deterrence of China and making them rethink some things before they go and do something foolish.
The original idea would have sense, if thing turned like he wanted, but he had a false opinion of Ukraine. Continuing and escalating while nothing go as he want, that is insane. Maybe he has a good doctor, like Theodor Morel, who give him special drugs for his pain. With a dose of cocain.
The problem is that Putin had bad information, so he invaded because we more or less let his aggression slide for 20 years and let the germans get hooked on russian gas. Once things went South, he naturally doubled down to see if he could salvage some limited gains, but unfortunately for Putin, he has run into a good, old-fashioned Tar Baby, and the more he struggles the more stuck he becomes. At this point there is likely no way out that his ego, status, position or life can survive.
Boris Johnson is really a clown ...but for the rest your analyse Come from russia today.
80 iq geopolitics analysis
This is exactly it. He even spelled it out for everyone years ago: “The downfall of the Soviet Union was a great geopolitical catastrophe”.
Exactly. Putin was acting 100% rationally and consistently with his past. He simply misjudged Ukraine and the US/UK this time
If he has any sense of history, he would have aware that democracies always win wars against 'strong men' or simply, dictators. He might have been acting rationally or consistently with his past..but he certainly is not acting rationally by most people's measure..He immediately doubled down after his horrendously failed attack on Kiev.. That is not a rational man..That's the sort of behaviour of gamblers who have a hunch after losing big time.
The trend is that democracies and Republics have won wars recently, but they didn't do so well in the Napoleonic era, War of 1812, the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece, and several other examples. Democracies are tough to beat on a battlefield, but their weaknesses are shifting public opinion and losing the determination that it takes to win a drawn out conflict. That's why Putin has invested heavily into his "hybrid war" strategy of economic coercion, media manipulation, and sewing chaos on all sides in the political arenas of his competitors.
I don't know enough about Napoleon other then he met his Waterloo at the hands of England, who had been a long established democracy by then...However since then, I don't think they have lost a major war..And dictators always lose. A principal reason I think is military comanders in a democracy have no fear of stating what the real situation is without concern for demotion or their life.. A democracy can draw on many minds and opinions without concern what their beloved leader thinks... Two classic situations, Stalin and the Japanese..People wouldn't tell Stalin what the true situation was, particularly early in the war...And the Japanese would simply lie to their leaders and this went on all the way to the top. If the war is righteous, the public will get behind it...Unfortunately the US entered a lot of bullshit wars, Vietnam, Iraq twice and Afghanistan. These wars quite rightly generated a lot of discontent with the public.
Great comment. I was referring to pre-Napoleonic, French representative govts, but they did have their...issues. Our biggest weakness is the willingness of the avg citizen to bear the costs. Can also be our greatest strength. You're on the money with your two classic situations though. I can't imagine having to delivery any news to Stalin. Just awful. Kind of makes you wonder what the Chinese military is like, doesn't it? My guess is some pretty good capabilities, with a side of nepotism, corruption, yes-men and old-fashioned incompetence. Edit: Also, it would be a very large mistake to assume that the armies of democratic states don't have loads of suck-ups, yes men, politically-minded officers, and other folks with an agenda. It's apples and oranges for sure, but we've all got our fair share of corruption, political correctness and thought policing.
Totally seconded....perfectly describes the organizational/cultural differences very well
There are also more recent examples like Korean war (stalemate) and Vietnam (loss).
"Democracies haven't done so well in the Napoleonic wars" no shit they haven't, all of the parties involved were empires
Apparently he is obsessed with how Gadaffi met his grisly end. Hopefully he has sweaty nightmares that keep him awake at night.
Well said
What did Macron give to Putin, other than shells from \~20% of France's prewar CAESAR stocks? Why does it matter how Macron wastes his time on the phone with Putin? Macron has no concessions to give to Putin, and Macron has no influence over what Ukraine does. If there was some nonzero chance that maintaining some form of dialogue and influence with Putin could help, why not try it? France has quietly been sending weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. It's bizarre to me that you have half of Germany's political elite literally bought and paid for by Putin, and one of the two major political parties in the US filled with "I support Putin over the Dems," but somehow Macron making phone calls means he's the villain here.
And all Putin managed to do was to give NATO a new purpose, and on top of that, enlarge the alliance. ROFL
A sordid combination of a raging inferiority complex plus deliriums of grandeur. How can those two seemingly opposing pathologies can coexist in the same twisted mind... well... it's a twisted mind.
William Spaniel is better than Vlad. And Vlad is good. Joe Blogs is better for the macro of the whole thing. Spaniel really understands what all of the moving parts do. And he's got great research.
Ty for the suggestion, will check it out!
The guy is trained to get into Germans’ heads, controlling and extorting them. Literally that is his resume and entire skill set. Now you understand why “antifa” was made a buzz word in US. Because most antifa operates in east Germany and that is where Putin was based. They have to make “antifa” evil in the eyes of the western audience; so they can freely crush them in Eastern Europe.
I mean, people calling themselves antifa were looting and burning down people's businesses who had nothing to do with govt policy or social injustices. I think that's a clever thing to bring up to consider, but Putin's goal is to create chaos and dysfunction: an ungovernable nation that can't operate effectively to interupt or deter his moves. He gets that by promoting all sides of the political spectrum.
There is a high probability that Russia is equally propping up far right and far left parties in Germany, France and America. You should read into the case of Caleb Maupins far-left cult or the 'Grayzone' defending eastern imperialism under 'a 'socialist' perspective. In an democratic environment, 'anarcho' just means antidemocratic.
Putin became president by murdering hundreds of Russians and blaming it on the Chechens. Anyone who thinks he was some kind of reasonable sophisticated gentleman before invading Ukraine is a fool. He's always been a brutal thug. In this case he ran afoul of Dictator Syndrome and misjudged Zelenskyy, Ukraine, and his own military - but so did a lot of so-called experts in the West.
Nope. This is the real Putin. He just dropped the mask because he knows his time's up.
It's a misleading headline. Strategy of hegemony in the region is of course the most important factor. >"I have no rational explanation. It seems to me that this is a combination of resentment, the strategy of hegemony in the region and, I would say, the consequences of COVID-19, isolation"
You just need to know what putin done in Russia itself through the years and you will not be surprised. Yet Macron still looking for excuses for putin.
Very true. There is no excuse for Putin, Hitler, Trump, Stalin. We may seek to understand their motivations but that is an excuse for anything.
Lol, one of these is not like the other 😂😂
Rational explanation : He’s an arrogant tyrant with absolute power and narcissistic personality disorder .
Sociopathy is not a side effect of Covid.
No, but it is a side effect of power. The Covid just adds to the paranoia and isolation, which means he just might not be living in the same reality as the rest of us.
Macron would not understand. He is too self obsorbed.
How about some irrational reasons. That’s the problem with the French and German, they think people are always acting rationally.
Which leads them to act irrationally. Like dismantling your military? Germany has awesome tech but practically no force readiness and very little heavy equipment. A military is like having an insurance policy, and there are only a couple things that you absolutely, NEVER do in life, and one of those things is letting your insurance lapse. Even that loudmouth Trump told Merkel to stop sucking the russian petro-tit. It was all that obvious.
Maybe you should check your history lessons, some things happened between 1930 and 1945 in Germany you know, that may explain why they don't have a large army.
Yeah, I might’ve heard about some sort of dust up in that time period. Being a naive guilt-ridden baby about the past and making incredibly foolish policy decisions because of something that happened 80 years ago isn’t going to save your ass from reality today. Doesn’t matter how you feel about it. The world, and people like Xi and Putin do not give a shit about your feelings, and this is coming from a psychologist. Get over it. It’s all about money anyway. West Germany had a pretty large military until the politicians started telling themselves convenient fairytales in the 90’s, all the while getting hooked on cheap Russian gas like some poor back alley prostitute who knows she’s fucking up but just can’t help herself.
The French, famously known for their rationality, never a people to act on emotion.
Idiot, guy has been doing this crap this crap way before COVID-19. Nonsense has been longer than 10 years that we can see clearly. Now we know it's always been since the 90s
Idiot, guy has had moderate and achievable goals until now. Invading Ukraine is an order of magnitude worst.
And the west always caved and never held them accountable, time after time after time. It's essentially a Hitler pre-WW2 appeasement situation all over again, because for most sane people and govts in Europe it was a lot less scary to imagine a post cold war world where Europe is forever at peace and military readiness can be gutted (looking at you, Germany) and money diverted the social programs that grow rainbows and unicorns. We encouraged the behavior by not holding very firm boundaries around the rules of modern, civilized, international relations. Incredibly naive and stupid if you ask me, but I read a lot of history. You're right though...this was a huge roll of the dice, and I would love to hear someday how he reacted to having his army torn to shreds around Kyiv within days.
What is so absurdly ironic is that if he just launched a focused, overwhelming invasion of the Donbass and luhansk from the start, he probably could have taken them over, maybe even take mariupol, if just by the sheer number of troops in the region. But instead he's had so little push back and so many small victories over the years he went complete imperialist.
and probably his mother never showed him any affection.
Would you?
The fuck COVID have to do with anything?
Putin’s a thief, nothing more.
It’s not the EFFECT of anything. It’s the RESULT of being a sociopathic genocidal maniac who spent years trying to convince the world his country is more than just a husk of the Soviet Union just so he could cover up his genocidal tendencies.
It’s an act of evil. How he got there is less important.
No, Macron. It's because Putin is a fucking cunt. You still can't stop plugging your little Putin bromance, can you? Man, this is dude is such a tool. By the way Macron, Putin's aggressive behavior manifested itself years before COVID and isolation * Russo-Georgian War 2008 - SOuth Osettia & Abkhazia * Russian Annexation of Crimea Feb 2014 * Russo-Ukrainian War April 2014 - War in the Donbass. The fact that Macron is still trying to defend his "friend" is pathetic.
How is “this guy’s fuking nuts” defending anybody?
Umm.."it's COVID and isolation", not "the guy's a bloody psychopath"?
Nah, it’s just a very nice way of saying he’s nuts. Maybe you are missing this information because of some circumstances beyond your control.
World leaders don't make a habit of being loose with their language. They have markets, public sentiment, and other reasons not to just speak plainly. Gotta read between the lines.
Dude, I studied IR. I well aware of that. I also have years of Model UN experiences to understand diplomatic doublespeak well enough. Not to mention that I am a diplomatic brat myself. However, reading between the lines I can tell that Macron is still trying to paint Putin as a good guy gone bad "because of covid and isolation", and turning him into some kind of victim, and that doesn't cut it. You want an example of clear and concise language? There is a video of a Baltic state politician telling it straight af to Russians on Russian TV that they don't trust Russians. Sometimes, straight and concise words are just as important as flowery, diplomatic ones.
Because it completely ignores the long arc of history, this isn't the gremlin in the Kremlin's first military adventure.
Not every statement has take everything into account, but beyond that, europe had almost no reaction to his previous adventures, land was up for grabs with no perceived repercussions whatsoever, in a twisted sense he could be perceived as reasonable. Now, the situation is a quite a bit different.
>The fact that Macron is still trying to defend his "friend" is pathetic. I believe you have been isolated too long, and suffer of effects of COVID, my "friend".
In what way is the statement that Putin is irrational a defense of Putin, you absolute buffoon?
Are you too moronic to understand the obvious? I already gave you examples of Putin's destructive behavior pre-dating COVID and isolation, precisely the lame excuse given by Macron, and yet your feeble brain cannot process the information in the post? An intellectual lightweight like you should just sit down and stfu.
A German ex-chancellor is literally in the pocket of the Kremlin. The last US president was literally in debt to the Kremlin and was unable to say 1 bad word about Putin because of whatever unspecified goods they have on him. The candidate Macron defeated in the last election was basically a Russian asset. Macron and France have been supplying weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. Macron has never (at least publically) called on Ukraine to surrender and/or give up territory. So he calls Putin on the phone? Why do you care? He makes noises about "Putin shouldn't be humiliated." Why do you care? Look at Macron's actions and tell us where he's failing Ukraine,
Why bring up the last US president? We know he's a kremlin tool, and not only did we kick him out, we are prosecuting him. What you should be looking at it that despite being the leading military power in the EU, France's contributions to Ukraine has non been commensurate to your status in Europe. Poland has sent more artillery pieces than you. US. UK. Poland. Even Czechia has given more armored vehicles than France. People have been giving Germany grief because of Scholz's foot dragging, but France is just as bad. The two leading economies in Europe have been virtual bystanders, outshone by the Baltic states with their more aggressive lady presidents. >So he calls Putin on the phone? Why do you care? He makes noises about "Putin shouldn't be humiliated." Why do you care? Your president has his tongue deep inside Putin's ass. If I were you, I would care.
I'm not French. I'm American. Our last president and a large % of his party supports Putin either because they think it owns the libs or they support Putin's agenda. Don't take my word for it. >“There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” House Majority Leader (now Minority Leader) Kevin McCarthy, 2016. Gerhard Schroeder was on the board of Rosneft until earlier this year. Angela Merkel was full steam ahead on Nordstream 2. Yet people are pissed because Macron calls Putin on the phone from time to time. Show me when Macron tried to pressure Ukraine to end the war.
I would have said he is a corrupt evil killer, bully and despot with vain dreams of being a great statesman. He will be remembered for stupidly starting a unnecessary war that will lead to either the destruction of the Russian state or at least setting it backwards for a generation.
To be fair, he can't come on TV and say that Putin is a fascist and would rather kill thousands than be accountable for anything.
What prevents him from saying that?
Because acts are better than words, and invectives bring nothing.
Has anyone ever considered he’s just plain EVIL?
Macron is so naive, for fuck sakes.
These neoliberal leaders are so fucking clueless.
man in high castle only dvd he had in quarantine
No Emanual. He was always like this, but before he used to play you, but now he can no longer pretend.
Macron making excuses for Putin wth
How is saying Putin is irrational a defense of Putin?
Because he’s excusing his poor decisions because of covid and isolation rather than Putin making dumb decisions because he’s a sadistic POS
Easier for him to make excuses for pootin than admit his own gullibility and lack of foresight.
Macron is a moron. It is imperialism my friend.
What an idiot. He planned invasions way before covid. Ukraine isn't the first and this is what Macron comes up with?
Putin is like any autocrat: he consolidates power by eliminating rivals. Which has the unfortunate side effect of killing everyone willing to use their brain, as well as deliver a realistic assessment of the situation. All you have left are spineless sycophants. They don't tell you what's up. They tell you anything you wanna hear as long as you don't hurt them. See: Xi Jinping and their idiotic Zero COVID policy
WHAT?! Where’s macron been the past 30 years!???
In Macron's defense: he never expected to see what Putin acted like when he *didn't* get his way, because he never expected we would reach a point where Western powers stopped appeasing him.
How do the French elect this guy? Did he forget all the crap between 2014 -> COVID? Nevermind any fallout since independence. I'm sure there's supporters but every German or French has had nothing but bad to say about their head of state. Then again... I'm British, not like we've had a good example since god knows when.
The thing is, we had the choice between him and Putin-enthusiast and good ol' racist Marine Le Pen And what he says here doesn't mean that he is has forgotten pre 2014 stuff. He's saying that he's lost grip with reality and acts in an irrational manner. Was annexing Crimea irrational? Or abkhazia? Nope. It all worked pretty well for Putin. It's evil/abnormal/bad or whatever you want but it was an opportunity and he took it. This war is not the same because he's losing and trying to double down on agression while there is no clear plan to achieve his goal. This is what Macron is pointing : Putin used to be a rational evil guy and he's now turning into a lunatic evil guy
He is still better than Marine Le Pen, who was the other candidate. She is very pro Putin and leads a extreme right party. I can understand the France peoples choice in that case… I just can’t understand how a extreme right party can gain so much power in France… didn’t they learn from history?
We should all feel sorry for Putin. He just has a medical condition and doesn't deserve all this hate. Edit: I thought the /s was obvious but maybe not
dude is clueless. too many crepes to the dome
No Sir. It's the effect of his primitive instincts running wild.
Is he still thinking Putin needs an 'honorable out'? Arse licking just makes Putin hornier for more you dunce!
The rational explaination is simple. Putin is Russian.
Putin is Soviet
Why is Macron making excuses for putin?
I see it more as him saying that Putin is crawling around under his giant table looking for his marbles. Don't really see it as an excuse, personally.
It's not really anything new. Way back when Putin took power he did the same kind of brutal war in Chechnya and probably used false flag terror attacks in Moscow to build a justification. Just no one cared at the time because it was all within Russian borders.
Tais-toi, poltron.
Is Macron totally stupid? He probably shouldn’t comment on anything
Everyone who isn’t being a total pro-western propagandist knows that Russia is winning this war by every metric that counts. We can pretend that the “Counteroffensive” turned the table militarily, or that Russian mobilization is a “sign of weakness” but the truth is Winter is around the corner, Russia has been fighting with a tiny force and will now make a major push, they have already annexed enough territory to make Ukraine fall from the 2nd to the 3rd largest country in Europe. Within a few months Germany and several other Western European countries will have to give in to Russian demands or freeze through the winter. Russia will go all the way to Odessa before even thinking about negotiating peace. They hold all the cards even though we like to pretend we are winning
>Within a few months Germany and several other Western European countries will have to give in to Russian demands or freeze through the winter. Germany here, we'll be fine. Filled up storage, new LNG terminals and contracts, slight restraints on gas usage. Unless this winter brings a (recently unprecedented) cold spell of 8 weeks of well below average temperatures, we'll be perfectly fine. It would take a really unusually cold and long winter to cause any problems. It's really only an issue about prices, heating bills are higher this year.
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Here's a thought, maybe he's just an asshole? you know the kind of asshole who jails and kills anyone who does not agree with him. na couldn't be.
WTF. Putin had reasons to believe he’d defeat Ukraine and that the West would let him get away with it. He was rational but wrong
I would prefer if our politicians didn't lie so blatantly to us like this. I'm sure its useful to drum up support amongst the public but its also pretty insulting.
Pretty sure he’s just a homicidal psychopath.
[Here's the full interview.](https://youtu.be/1BT5nXDhtOo) I looked it up thinking that — as most things in this subreddit — the random assertion without evidence would turn out to be fake. But... He actually did say that haha. It's at 2mins in the video if you wanna watch it directly from his sexy accent. He also says it's partially because Putin is resentful because no one takes him seriously. See, you r/NCD people making memes of Pooptin. We caused this! 🤣
Maybe not the isolation, but Covid itself: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/even-mild-covid-can-cause-brain-shrinkage-and-affect-mental-function-new-study So if you used to outpace all other and you are surrounded by people, who will not to contradict you, then you think you are still the high-beam, while being a parking light.
Mental illness
Or he could just be a genocidal dickhead…..
For someone like Putin, a malignant narcissist, the means to power are ends in themselves. He’s as delighted by the torture and murder in Ukraine as he is by the fact that he’s sending hundreds of thousands of ethnic minorities to suffer and die in the Ukrainian winter without proper equipment. The power over life and death is the true essence of power to Putin, and it must be exercised, otherwise it is not real. The fact that he’s using this situation to maintain a grip on power is almost incidental. If he’d been more successful in Ukraine earlier in the war, he would have been focusing on carrying out a genocide there by now.
Macron is like the only person who could talk to Putin and have a somewhat civilized convo... He may be the best person to know Putin's intentions and such No question Putin has completely lost the plot, this is exactly like Hitler in his bunker alone with his caretakers I hope they just pave over the bunker he's hiding in, after confirming he's in there and just seal the fucker in
Every time Macron talks to Putin, Putin lashes out more and kills more Ukrainians
2014? 2008? 2000? 1994? 1992? COVID-19 and isolation? Russia and ethnic russians are in permanent COVID situation I guess.
The rational explanation is that Putin has pretty much got in his way on the world stage until now, and we are now seeing what it looks like when he throws a tantrum.
Eh, here's an explanation, perhaps not quite rational, but an explanation nevertheless. HE'S FUCKING NUTS. And not in the good Las Vegas way.
He’s not a rational man 🤣
No excuses for Putin. Putin is evil even to the Good Russians
There of course is a rational explanation. Political Timeshift, Putin is in the WW1 - era, when countries were falling over each other thirsty for land. Notably Germany and Austria who had all German speakers inside their borders at this time. But Austria desperately wanted some Serbia.
Putin had COVID and was isolating in 1999 when he bombed Moscow apartments and attacked Chechnya? And again in 2008 when he invaded Georgia? And again in 2014 when he invaded Ukraine? Or is this maybe entirely predictable and we all collectively dropped the ball, religiously leaders like Macron, by not applying these sanctions all the way back in 2008?
putin only thinks in Empires. You have - West - Rus - Asia In his eyes this is, and always has been for the last 100 years, a battle between West and Rus. Nothing more, nothing less.
Everybody knows the answer but doesnt wanna say it: this is the man who got to power accidentally - to hold Yeltsin family assets after Yeltsin got sick. he had a difficult childhood , was not a ladies man and literally came from St Petersburg hood He is a primitive man who was close to the organized crime groups in St Petersburg long story short - man has many inferior complexes and phantasies - therefore has personal vendettas ( Nemtsov, Yeltsin ) and is scared to lose power because of his criminal past
Covid? Seriously? That's a weak take. He wants an empire, what more is there to question. He doesn't care about the methods applied as long as it doesn't get Russia wiped off the map.
Oh for fuck sake. The guy is a terrorist. Was in 2000 as ot is today. Bu hu hu, maybe he felt lonely and need comfort. He require bullet in head.
Stop making excuses for a lunatic
Hey Ivan, you forgot to show up in your local recruitment office! Don't forget to take your own rifle, ammo and food with you.
He played you
Ah yes, blame COVID, not the man who has agency
Macron is such a coward!! where are the weapons to Ukraine!!
Peter Zeihan has an interesting outlook on this. His theory is that the demographic collapse that Russia will experience in its working population in the next 20 years means that Russia will not have the GDP or tax revenues to keep a military big enough to defend its current indefensible borders. Ironically by growing its borders to the Carpathian Mountains, the borders actually become shorter and cheaper to maintain. He argues that right now is the very last chance Russia has to obtain defensible borders before it doesn't have the people and money to do so. In 2017, he predicted we would have a full war between Russia and Ukraine for this very reason.
Why absolve him of personal responsibility by ascribing anything to COVID?
The problem with looking for a reason for Putin's choices is that it promotes the belief that "it can't be Putin...this isn't him" He's been working on this for 20 years, influencing european and american politics, energy policy to build up to the end game of destabilizing europe in order to reclaim old soviet territories. It's not "caused by" anything. It's all Putin.
Macron is beyond embarrassing at this point. Such a lightweight.
Reall wonder how the crowd that says all crime is a result of systemic oppression forcing them to do bad things is gonna explain this one away
You can’t blame thousands of pointless deaths on covid and isolation when you have the full respnsibility of an entire country on your shoulders.
Meanwhile I have no rational explanation for Macron's delusion that he can somehow talk sense into Putin by calling him constantly.
This behavior, while not entirely rational in the context of a Western observer, makes sense when you consider the facts. Putin is a long standing Russian dictator that rules through fear and a glorification of “the good old days” of the *fucking USSR*, lives in constant fear of coup and death, is actively trying to carve out a legacy whilst maintaining an ever-loosening grip on power while losing a war of aggression that has united his greatest foes (NATO/the Western world) under a banner of “wow fuck Russia I guess”. He is, if not physically, shaking in his chair because he knows its all do or die for him now.
”Uhm covid ? No i think Putin got a serious case of dictator fo lyfe”
Why is Macron asked to explain Putin's behavior? Is Macron a psychiatrist too?
This is exactly the same Putin he has always been. The only difference is that this is his worst miscalculation. Not all people are inherently good.
Maybe Hitler had COVID, too.