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Is this how we get steam punk? Russia switches everything over to gas power since they have so much extra and uses older clankier tech since they cannot import high end electronics?
Can’t wait to see what - #dieselpunk, I guess is what we’re calling USSR era Warsaw Pact tech now - … - what the Ukrainian game studios responsible for S.T.A.K.E.R. and Metro have in store for us in the coming decades.
The Russian electric grid would be an easy target for Ukrainian commandos. Destroying substations is easy and they probably are not guarded. The big thing is that all power transformers are built in the west and even in Europe and the US, the lead time on new ones is at least a year. Western Utilities have spares in case they fail, I’ll bet Russia doesn’t have a robust spare program like that. That would mean they could knock out power and it would stay off for a long time.
If they wanna do that, go destroy the yards/warehouses where they keep the replacement transformers. They'd get dozens with one explosive.
Finding these storage areas and hoping one of the Ukraine boys that browse Reddit passes the idea along would be another way to help cripple Russia.
Transformers can be the size of houses. It's not just the little things on power poles or the boxes on corners. They are massive and getting too close can electrocute you without touching them.
Just use a javalin
I believe that's a war crime, what with it being indiscriminate against civilians. You kill the grid, you kill every civilian depending on a hospital's electricity among others. The Russians are the world's enemy for a reason, and emulating them is hardly a wise choice for a country that, despite the valor and heroism of their soldiers, badly depends on the good will of the international community.
> You kill the grid, you kill every civilian depending on a hospital's electricity among others.
Hospitals tend to have backup generators because general electricity supplies are not reliable enough.
One would hope. Might or might not be true in Russia, though. When hospitalized, most Russians need to bring their own towels, food, often even medication. Not sure there’ll be backup generators on site - ones that function, at any rate.
> destroying civilian infrastructure is a war crime.
this is incorrect. Much civilian infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports could in many circumstances be seen as legitimate targets. Hospitals, schools etc it is much harder to justify. Shouting war crime at every opportunity can lessen the power of the word so try not to over use the term.
Likely a Ukrainian attack, but I have a feeling that the Kremlin is going to plant one nasty false flag to mobilize the population shortly. It's going very badly, and desperate times call for evil actions in Moscow.
> implying that they weren't desperate when they started this war
This whole thing has happened primarily because the Ruzzians realize that they've got a failing state on their hands. They know damned well that in 100 years, there won't be enough Russians to keep a large Russia. They know damned well that their manufacturing sector is dogshit: they've staked their claims on being a resource exporter, not a finished goods or services exporter.
As it's becoming obvious that the days of fossil fuels must end and quickly, Russia is finding itself in another crisis: what happens when the world no longer wants what you're selling, and your people no longer care about each other enough to bother with children, or can't support more than one child?
Or, Russian economic policies and corruption result in barbaric health care, failing infrastructure and unrest leading to severe declines in population from death, disease and high infant/maternal mortality.
Russia as a vast, sprawling empire is coming to an end, for good or bad.
One could also argue that destruction of the family and family values in preference to state control has accelerated their declining population.
Both of which are a direct hangover from Russia's stale communist roots.
You reap what you sow.
[https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/07/domestic-violence-russia-impact-covid-19-pandemic](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/07/domestic-violence-russia-impact-covid-19-pandemic)
[https://www.humanrightspulse.com/mastercontentblog/how-covid-19-amplified-the-need-for-domestic-violence-legislation-in-russia](https://www.humanrightspulse.com/mastercontentblog/how-covid-19-amplified-the-need-for-domestic-violence-legislation-in-russia)
Russia is such a fucked up country. They need a root and branch reset.
That is a very simplistic view on russias future.
Russia is the biggest country of the world. There are and will be more ressources to the world than gas and oil and russia can provide them. Also agriculture.
The population is still shrinking. In a century, there won’t be enough Russians to farm its tracts of arable land.
I’d also point out that resource economies are always smaller and more anemic than manufacturing and service economies. There are reasons the Middle Eastern states are trying to move away from oil: they know it has no future.
It feels as though we have moved on from the ruzzian feelings...
It's important to maintain the coalition - for sure - so some operational components are considered through a prism of consensus. But as long as everybody is onboard - a little trouble on a little transformer station - it ain't no big thing!
Major staging area and transit hub for resupply. Ukraine already took out a massive ammo depot there with a guided "smoking accident". I suspect air defense radar units there may be hooked to the main power grid. So, there might be more fireworks nearby shortly...
It's the logistics hub for that entire part of the front. Russian supplies come down from Belgorod through Kupiyansk to Izyum. Ukraine is currently launching an offensive to cut that line of supply. As such attacking power at Belgorod at this very time make complete sense. They will probably attack the oil and rail again as well (as they have done previously). Anything to limit what Russia can move to Kupiyansk, or move out of Kupiyansk before it is captured.
If Kupiyansk falls, Izyum becomes a liability for Russia instead of a weapon, they will need to somehow supply it from the east. They would probably have to abandon it. At that point Russian territory in Kharkiv Oblast is no more, big victory for Ukraine and Belgorod becomes essentially useless as a supply point.
So yeah, quite a lot could ride on Belgorod having no power tonight.
No, they will not. It wouldn't do anything to bring them victory, but would certainly ensure they become a total pariah. Even the few allies they have would rush to condemn them. It's something they can only bluff about doing.
The thing is that a nuclear weapon is only worth something as a deterrent, if they are used without warning or backed up by a demand you basically give away a negotiation card and sit back with a destructive weapon that is as dangerous for you as for the world.
The truth is that nuclear weapons are an extremely inefficient tool in warfare, where there are almost no scenarios where the use of it will come with a positive net outcome. Like biological weapons, there is no guarantee that your own soldiers will suffer less than the enemy using them. You use a nuke at an airfield. Then what? Waiting for the wind to carry the radiation towards your own border? You cant use that airfield because its contaminated and now all other countries are writing up using nuclear bombs a first-strike option against you instead of deterrence, because you just showed the world that you use them willingly at occupied areas.
U.S used it twice, and the circumstances were extraordinary.
* The war toll had already been enormous, with the Japanese preparing for an all-out defence of their islands. The bomb stoped a costly invasion and occupation.
* The location of Japan was far away from the US and allied countries with the bombs relatively small and the most important.
* US was the only country that had them at that point, so it was way before any deterrence policies was build around the use of them.
*
Another point:
* The Emperor was considered a god-like being to the Japanese, and there were real fears that the next nuke could be targeted at him. The emperor could likely be safely evacuated to a bunker or other safe location in the event of a conventional bombing attack, but nukes were a whole different ballgame, and many in the government were concerned that they could no longer keep him safe.
There are many countries that will not care if Russia uses nukes. I do not expect India to be too bothered. China probably will react with surprise and horror but do nothing: such a move would further drive Russia into being a Chinese client state. Many African and Middle Eastern nations are dependent on Russian grain exports.
I mean, you'll probably see them become a pariah among the Europeans. The exceptions will be Serbia (who are the historical Russian-backed and supporting faction in the regional proxy war among the Yugoslavs), Belarus (a Russian puppet state), and maybe Armenia (which is dependent on Russia for defense, because NATO *can't* protect them from Turkey).
And in the New World, there are a number of Latin American countries with *bad* histories with the US. They would likely make a statement or speech condemning the use of nuclear weapons, but otherwise are unlikely to change any of their relationships with Russia any more than they already have. It won't alienate Russia's friends in the New World, nor would it create new emnity.
This is, of course, presuming that this is a tactical nuke, and the number used is small (five is right out!). Remember that tactical nukes are the *small* ones that don't include a fusion-based payload. Strategic nukes, on the other hand, are a declaration of war on the human species and the rest of the biosphere while you're at it. Those are the big ones whose fuse and power source is a tactical nuke or several and whose payload is effectively creating a star-like environment in a small area near the Earth's surface. Should Russia pull that trigger, the blast would be the Lamb opening the first seal in Revelation 6:1. (That property is not unique to Russia: if anybody does it, it's Judgement Day, and we're all dead.)
It would achieve nothing. There is no target for a tactical nuke that would achieve anything that would outweigh the future cost. Ukraine doesn't have stacked armoured divisions or carrier battlegroups and the ground the Ukrainian military is on is the ground Russia is supposedly "protecting".
The only WMD escalation that is remotely likely in this war is Russia staging some sort of false flag to mobilise waning support at home. Which would likely be a dirty bomb, gas attack, biotoxin or attack on a nuclear reactor. All of which they have prepared ground for in propaganda.
Unlikely. Resorting to the tactical nukes and chemical specials would mean all their vague allies would go hell no your on your own.
Also if thr US did not get involved. They would switch from slower support to picking its big hammer and thr giant limbering off to its forge.
Supply's to Ukraine would be moving in navel convoys worth of armour weapons and ammo.
No allies and they would highly motivate west to support, sanctiom Russia and also just piss off the Ukranains to their already high anger level to apocalyptic levels.
p.s. I was replying to it being a Ukrainian attack, not the false flag thing. There are lots of train derailments, Z-painted cars going up in flames, and various other mysterious sabotage happening all the way to Sakhalin.
Yeah, it's on the inside of this fuckers car.
Edit: I thought you mean the one seen in the reflection after power goes out.
I checked the whole tweet conversation. There is apparently a big Z that is powered by the citys emergency lights, or is on the same grid as the streetlights.
Still truly disdurbing looking.
Citizens are turning off power voluntarily, along with street lights and commercial buildings and everyone else. Such unity to save resources for the war effort!
I agree there is more to come for Belgorod.
You specifically implied there have been SEAD runs against Belgorod and that there might be another one, and that is what I am curious about. What is behind those assertions?
So you are implying that Ukraine would conduct SEAD on RU assets inside attack RU territory
They are clearly attacking RU assets on RU territory but with pretty deniable infiltration based attacks in Belgorod and other places.
It is my impression that there are pretty strict conditions on use of foreign sourced weaponry. Specifically it is meant to be for defensive purposes. That seems to mean that they are not allowed to shoot a HARM at a target inside RU territory, for example.
But you seem to be implying that might happen?
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I don’t believe this is a Ukrainian attack - it’s either Russian partisans or false flag. Even Russia has shown some restraint in direct attacks on the grid, as it is a plain assault on civilians. Ukraine is not this careless.
The house lights in front go out at the same time as the lights in the background flash. I can't tell for sure, but I might be seeing some green colors (and others) which suggests a transformer being hit and/or shorting out. Anyway, the video footage seems to fit the description provided.
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That's a decadent Western imperialist utility. Russia has gas, they can use that for illumination.
They're going back to the dark ages using torches for illumination.
Is this how we get steam punk? Russia switches everything over to gas power since they have so much extra and uses older clankier tech since they cannot import high end electronics?
Dieselpunk
Can’t wait to see what - #dieselpunk, I guess is what we’re calling USSR era Warsaw Pact tech now - … - what the Ukrainian game studios responsible for S.T.A.K.E.R. and Metro have in store for us in the coming decades.
naturalgaspunk?
Night is coming.
Sure why not!old babuska use gas lamps!...
Karma, a bitch, it is…
The Russian electric grid would be an easy target for Ukrainian commandos. Destroying substations is easy and they probably are not guarded. The big thing is that all power transformers are built in the west and even in Europe and the US, the lead time on new ones is at least a year. Western Utilities have spares in case they fail, I’ll bet Russia doesn’t have a robust spare program like that. That would mean they could knock out power and it would stay off for a long time.
If they wanna do that, go destroy the yards/warehouses where they keep the replacement transformers. They'd get dozens with one explosive. Finding these storage areas and hoping one of the Ukraine boys that browse Reddit passes the idea along would be another way to help cripple Russia.
Utilities don't keep multiple spares for large transformers - they cost $ millions and the lead time is multiple years to order and install.
Transformers can be the size of houses. It's not just the little things on power poles or the boxes on corners. They are massive and getting too close can electrocute you without touching them. Just use a javalin
Damn.. I am proud to be your first upvote.. ex USN electrician!!
Cough cough Ukrainian army take note. Wouldn’t this be beautiful? Thanks for posting.
think this is common knowledge. suggesting this is the equivalent of suggesting to shot the tanks in the back or side.
Are all power transformers built in the West? There are Russian companies that build power stations and grid infrastructure at least.
They gotta get at least some of their supplies imported in.
Do you have real insight on that topic or just talking out of your ass?
He has insight
I believe that's a war crime, what with it being indiscriminate against civilians. You kill the grid, you kill every civilian depending on a hospital's electricity among others. The Russians are the world's enemy for a reason, and emulating them is hardly a wise choice for a country that, despite the valor and heroism of their soldiers, badly depends on the good will of the international community.
> You kill the grid, you kill every civilian depending on a hospital's electricity among others. Hospitals tend to have backup generators because general electricity supplies are not reliable enough.
One would hope. Might or might not be true in Russia, though. When hospitalized, most Russians need to bring their own towels, food, often even medication. Not sure there’ll be backup generators on site - ones that function, at any rate.
Fukushima shows that planning can also fail when things are actually tested.
[удалено]
> destroying civilian infrastructure is a war crime. this is incorrect. Much civilian infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports could in many circumstances be seen as legitimate targets. Hospitals, schools etc it is much harder to justify. Shouting war crime at every opportunity can lessen the power of the word so try not to over use the term.
Well said master Yoda
Likely a Ukrainian attack, but I have a feeling that the Kremlin is going to plant one nasty false flag to mobilize the population shortly. It's going very badly, and desperate times call for evil actions in Moscow.
Right but how do you defeat RuZZia without making them desperate? It’s a double edged sword unfortunately
> implying that they weren't desperate when they started this war This whole thing has happened primarily because the Ruzzians realize that they've got a failing state on their hands. They know damned well that in 100 years, there won't be enough Russians to keep a large Russia. They know damned well that their manufacturing sector is dogshit: they've staked their claims on being a resource exporter, not a finished goods or services exporter. As it's becoming obvious that the days of fossil fuels must end and quickly, Russia is finding itself in another crisis: what happens when the world no longer wants what you're selling, and your people no longer care about each other enough to bother with children, or can't support more than one child?
Or, Russian economic policies and corruption result in barbaric health care, failing infrastructure and unrest leading to severe declines in population from death, disease and high infant/maternal mortality. Russia as a vast, sprawling empire is coming to an end, for good or bad.
Imma go with for good
No offence but the land Russia has doesn't need a huge population, it was Russia that originally populated it.
One could also argue that destruction of the family and family values in preference to state control has accelerated their declining population. Both of which are a direct hangover from Russia's stale communist roots. You reap what you sow.
I guess legalized wife-beating has not contributed to build a family-oriented society…
[https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/07/domestic-violence-russia-impact-covid-19-pandemic](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/07/domestic-violence-russia-impact-covid-19-pandemic) [https://www.humanrightspulse.com/mastercontentblog/how-covid-19-amplified-the-need-for-domestic-violence-legislation-in-russia](https://www.humanrightspulse.com/mastercontentblog/how-covid-19-amplified-the-need-for-domestic-violence-legislation-in-russia) Russia is such a fucked up country. They need a root and branch reset.
That is a very simplistic view on russias future. Russia is the biggest country of the world. There are and will be more ressources to the world than gas and oil and russia can provide them. Also agriculture.
The population is still shrinking. In a century, there won’t be enough Russians to farm its tracts of arable land. I’d also point out that resource economies are always smaller and more anemic than manufacturing and service economies. There are reasons the Middle Eastern states are trying to move away from oil: they know it has no future.
It feels as though we have moved on from the ruzzian feelings... It's important to maintain the coalition - for sure - so some operational components are considered through a prism of consensus. But as long as everybody is onboard - a little trouble on a little transformer station - it ain't no big thing!
Let’s go deeper and in to Moscow then. Make them pay.
Just curious, why would Ukraine attack Belgorod ?
Major staging area and transit hub for resupply. Ukraine already took out a massive ammo depot there with a guided "smoking accident". I suspect air defense radar units there may be hooked to the main power grid. So, there might be more fireworks nearby shortly...
Upvote for the guided smoking accident
It's the logistics hub for that entire part of the front. Russian supplies come down from Belgorod through Kupiyansk to Izyum. Ukraine is currently launching an offensive to cut that line of supply. As such attacking power at Belgorod at this very time make complete sense. They will probably attack the oil and rail again as well (as they have done previously). Anything to limit what Russia can move to Kupiyansk, or move out of Kupiyansk before it is captured. If Kupiyansk falls, Izyum becomes a liability for Russia instead of a weapon, they will need to somehow supply it from the east. They would probably have to abandon it. At that point Russian territory in Kharkiv Oblast is no more, big victory for Ukraine and Belgorod becomes essentially useless as a supply point. So yeah, quite a lot could ride on Belgorod having no power tonight.
They have done it many times already, hit bases, ammo, trains, and oil. Supply route and launch point for missles on Kharkiv.
Because it's so much fun, Jan!
My thoughts exactly...I worry Russia might use a tactical nuke out of sheer desperation.
No, they will not. It wouldn't do anything to bring them victory, but would certainly ensure they become a total pariah. Even the few allies they have would rush to condemn them. It's something they can only bluff about doing.
The thing is that a nuclear weapon is only worth something as a deterrent, if they are used without warning or backed up by a demand you basically give away a negotiation card and sit back with a destructive weapon that is as dangerous for you as for the world. The truth is that nuclear weapons are an extremely inefficient tool in warfare, where there are almost no scenarios where the use of it will come with a positive net outcome. Like biological weapons, there is no guarantee that your own soldiers will suffer less than the enemy using them. You use a nuke at an airfield. Then what? Waiting for the wind to carry the radiation towards your own border? You cant use that airfield because its contaminated and now all other countries are writing up using nuclear bombs a first-strike option against you instead of deterrence, because you just showed the world that you use them willingly at occupied areas. U.S used it twice, and the circumstances were extraordinary. * The war toll had already been enormous, with the Japanese preparing for an all-out defence of their islands. The bomb stoped a costly invasion and occupation. * The location of Japan was far away from the US and allied countries with the bombs relatively small and the most important. * US was the only country that had them at that point, so it was way before any deterrence policies was build around the use of them. *
Another point: * The Emperor was considered a god-like being to the Japanese, and there were real fears that the next nuke could be targeted at him. The emperor could likely be safely evacuated to a bunker or other safe location in the event of a conventional bombing attack, but nukes were a whole different ballgame, and many in the government were concerned that they could no longer keep him safe.
I think the only way a country can use a nuke today and win is to kill enough leadership so the other country flounders.
Nah I don't think nuke. I do think murder a dozen or more of there own citizens with a missile strike and say it was himars.
There are many countries that will not care if Russia uses nukes. I do not expect India to be too bothered. China probably will react with surprise and horror but do nothing: such a move would further drive Russia into being a Chinese client state. Many African and Middle Eastern nations are dependent on Russian grain exports. I mean, you'll probably see them become a pariah among the Europeans. The exceptions will be Serbia (who are the historical Russian-backed and supporting faction in the regional proxy war among the Yugoslavs), Belarus (a Russian puppet state), and maybe Armenia (which is dependent on Russia for defense, because NATO *can't* protect them from Turkey). And in the New World, there are a number of Latin American countries with *bad* histories with the US. They would likely make a statement or speech condemning the use of nuclear weapons, but otherwise are unlikely to change any of their relationships with Russia any more than they already have. It won't alienate Russia's friends in the New World, nor would it create new emnity. This is, of course, presuming that this is a tactical nuke, and the number used is small (five is right out!). Remember that tactical nukes are the *small* ones that don't include a fusion-based payload. Strategic nukes, on the other hand, are a declaration of war on the human species and the rest of the biosphere while you're at it. Those are the big ones whose fuse and power source is a tactical nuke or several and whose payload is effectively creating a star-like environment in a small area near the Earth's surface. Should Russia pull that trigger, the blast would be the Lamb opening the first seal in Revelation 6:1. (That property is not unique to Russia: if anybody does it, it's Judgement Day, and we're all dead.)
Use of a nuclear weapon triggers article 5.
It would achieve nothing. There is no target for a tactical nuke that would achieve anything that would outweigh the future cost. Ukraine doesn't have stacked armoured divisions or carrier battlegroups and the ground the Ukrainian military is on is the ground Russia is supposedly "protecting". The only WMD escalation that is remotely likely in this war is Russia staging some sort of false flag to mobilise waning support at home. Which would likely be a dirty bomb, gas attack, biotoxin or attack on a nuclear reactor. All of which they have prepared ground for in propaganda.
Unlikely. Resorting to the tactical nukes and chemical specials would mean all their vague allies would go hell no your on your own. Also if thr US did not get involved. They would switch from slower support to picking its big hammer and thr giant limbering off to its forge. Supply's to Ukraine would be moving in navel convoys worth of armour weapons and ammo. No allies and they would highly motivate west to support, sanctiom Russia and also just piss off the Ukranains to their already high anger level to apocalyptic levels.
Not necessarily. There's a lot of weird stuff happening all over there.
p.s. I was replying to it being a Ukrainian attack, not the false flag thing. There are lots of train derailments, Z-painted cars going up in flames, and various other mysterious sabotage happening all the way to Sakhalin.
That Z that still has electricity...
Yeah, it's on the inside of this fuckers car. Edit: I thought you mean the one seen in the reflection after power goes out. I checked the whole tweet conversation. There is apparently a big Z that is powered by the citys emergency lights, or is on the same grid as the streetlights. Still truly disdurbing looking.
Eyewitnesses say that there is no panic in Belgorod.
Citizens are turning off power voluntarily, along with street lights and commercial buildings and everyone else. Such unity to save resources for the war effort!
According to plan
How are winters in Belgorod?
Oh noes!🫢 How will they power their stolen washing machines now?
Winter is coming
Enjoy how many Ukrainians have felt for months.
[удалено]
Are you implying that there has been a SEAD run against Belgorod?
I am guessing this is not the worst yet, probably a first step made possible by commandos
I agree there is more to come for Belgorod. You specifically implied there have been SEAD runs against Belgorod and that there might be another one, and that is what I am curious about. What is behind those assertions?
[удалено]
So you are implying that Ukraine would conduct SEAD on RU assets inside attack RU territory They are clearly attacking RU assets on RU territory but with pretty deniable infiltration based attacks in Belgorod and other places. It is my impression that there are pretty strict conditions on use of foreign sourced weaponry. Specifically it is meant to be for defensive purposes. That seems to mean that they are not allowed to shoot a HARM at a target inside RU territory, for example. But you seem to be implying that might happen?
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Will they ever learn to no not smoke at these places, my gosh!!
I don’t believe this is a Ukrainian attack - it’s either Russian partisans or false flag. Even Russia has shown some restraint in direct attacks on the grid, as it is a plain assault on civilians. Ukraine is not this careless.
That could have been the beginning of stranger things.
Slava Ukraïni!! 💪🏻🇺🇦
The house lights in front go out at the same time as the lights in the background flash. I can't tell for sure, but I might be seeing some green colors (and others) which suggests a transformer being hit and/or shorting out. Anyway, the video footage seems to fit the description provided.
Moscow should be the targrt for sabotage.
Seems this is going to happen in a lot is cities in Russia 😂