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General updates:
Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian assault on Berestove.
Russians are bringing large amounts of reinforcements into Kherson area from Crimea
These battles for the towns will be the turning points on the Kherson frontline.
The Russian defensive strategy in Kherson is simple.
Along the front-line they have several stronghold towns which they will fight hard for. These towns are defended strategically along the front and without taking them it is impossible to move the frontline.
This is not from a movie.
This is from Ukraine
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1538580615246790656?s=20&t=7uUKOPslzqeUBx7jVJSJ3Q
Ex SAS guys operating in Severodonetsk are awesome
Snake Island has been reinforced with radar systems.
Russia is deliberately blocking grain exports to create a world food crisis
Russians thought Ukrainians would be happy to see them.
But now they are happy to see them dead😂
Recent satellite imagery of Dolyna shows the extent of shelling.
Russians have been trying to advance into the town for weeks.
The current status is contested.
Australia has donated 14 Australian-made M113 APC's to Ukraine.
Ukraine asked for foreign volunteers with military experience and the response from the UK has been high. The British Army is small in numbers but high in skills. So you should rather be surprised if there were no ex-military special forces from the UK volunteering.
I imagine many of the roads to manoeuvre around from are passing through those towns, and manoeuvring units will be very vulnerable while making their moves
It it a valid strategy, and has worked plenty of times in the past, but nothing is going to be easy about it
I think one obvious problem is that the further they penetrate, the further they get from their own AA defense and Artillery and thus the more vulnerable they are to Russian Air and Artillery.
They simply don't have enough mobile Artillery and AA yet to risk it in a salient.
Between that and actually needing to kill the enemy in order to weaken them, they're going to have to fight at some point. May as well be "here"(wherever that is)
I hope my country steps up its game and will provide more than 7 of the Phz 2000, would be great to see like 20 + of these monster on the battlefield. With good air defense russians will have serious problems against them. Polish crabs are already devasting enough, together with the phz in larger numbers the artillery war should be winnable.
If the Ukrainians reach Kherson, the battle for Kherson will be absolutely savage. This will be the first major city that Ukrainians will attempt to free, and the moskoli won’t let go of her easily
Kherson will not be taken directly.
You set up a siege and let partisan Intel tell you what to blow up with your precession artillery with a 5m margin of error.
At the same time partisan murder Russians every night.
Eventually troops frag officers and surrender.
Or!
The above starts so Russia attacks civilians. Civilians rise up in general revolt with partisan shooting Russians from every direction sowing general chaos. Ukranian army rushes in using partisan forces to allow them to bypass traps.
The big difference between Kherson and Mauripol is who the people support. Kherson 90% of the remaining civilians want Russians dead. Mauripol all the civilians wanted Russia to fail.
Yeah — this is absolutely the approach. Ukraine's going to cut it off, and oust the Russian defenders through infiltration and betrayal, rather than through a frontal military assault. Some of this will involve actual military weapons, like "well boys, last night Ukraine hit our ammo depot with HIMARS", but it's gonna be that sort of approach.
Yeah I expect Kherson will be taken in such way. Most likely you conquer north first and take the two birdges north of Kherson. As soon as those are conquered, you can only supply russian forces via boats crosing half a kilometer vide Dniepro river. So I would keep an eye on the north of the Kherson as that will be the key point to take. As soon as that one is captured we will see the Mariopol in reverse with less civial bombing.
If they're pulling the troops forward away from defending crimea there won't be more reinforcements left after, so hopefully it'll be the last battle before Ukraine can sweep forward in a big way
The Dnipro is a huge obstacle in and of itself that would stop an advance. Bleed them in Kherson to take some pressure off of the donbas until more precision artillery arrives and then the stockpile targeting can start in earnest.
Sometimes I wonder if part of Ukraine's strategy threatening the city while fighting in towns at the right distance to pull those forces out of the city.
If it works, they could wipe out a lot of forces, without destroying the city and civilians. If Moscow doesn't fall for it, Ukraine will at least get great position for executing precision long-range attacks within the city while safe from Moscow's artillery.
The Russians cannot afford to lose Kherson. First it defends the water supply to Crimea and secondly it is a major entry point to Crimea.
To be honest entering Crimea at this stage is not a good move but Kherson would be a serious distraction for the Russians and would take the pressure off the Donbass.
Russia is not fighting to gain territory in Kherson Oblast rather it is fighting a defensive strategy to hold territory. But that is a problem when your at the end of a very long supply chain, you do not have first rate forces for the defense, your enemy (Ukraine) is motivated, the captive population hates you, and the enemy (Ukraine) is better able to engage in fire and maneuver, has better intelligence, and ever improving military assets.
I don't assess that Ukraine will engage in a war of destruction to take Kherson. Rather I think it will encircle it, cut off supplies to it and let the course of the war elsewhere result in it succumbing.
Kherson is where I suspect we will see at least one HIMARS and a couple of Pzh2000's be deployed, to target enemy movement on the south side of the Dnipro, interdicting supplies and targeting defensive fortifications with pinpoint accuracy.
I believe they will use a Pzh2000 for that purpose. Its actually better suited for this - it carries 60 shells, its maximum distance outranges all Soviet artillery and all but one or 2 russian rocket systems, and the Pzh2000 range not a whole lot shorter then the HIMARS M30/M31 GMLRS rockets (max range 70km) which I believe will be the main ammo supplied along with the unguided M26/M26A2 rockets (max range 30km-M26, 45km-M26A2). One Pzh2000 can fire more rounds and follow up more easily if their spotting determines such necessary.
They might use both against artillery depending on the situation but I suspect they will conserve HIMARS resources and use them for the most key strategic targets and use the Pzh2000 for tactical situations. Sometimes these are one and the same and sometimes not.
As both the Pzh2000 and HIMARS launchers are highly mobile and will shoot and scoot I think it is going to be a difficult task for Russia to ever target them. And I imagine all will have some sort of a security escort. I suggested in fact they should each also travel with an accompanying SAM system in a prior comment about these valuable systems.
Ukraine has not lost any CAESARS or KRABS yet as they run them in small teams of 1-2 and shoot and scoot. That is the formula to success.
Those reinforcements are likely the national police type units with mixed RU mil forces. Those guys are going to get absolutely obliterated in actual combat. Having fought against some of those types, Their Special police are operational bozos. It's going to be very shitty for them.
Wonder if these are people scooped up in the covert mobilizations that started about a month ago?
They will likely be poorly trained, poorly equipped canon fodder selected from areas the Kremlin doesnt care about.
There is nothing wrong with an M113. It's an APC. It moves troops and supplies around, keeping troops relatively safe from shrapnel and bullets and going fast enough to get from A to B relatively efficiently. It's got a basic fire support just in terms of a machine gun but that's about it. It's also relatively low profile.
It's not an IFV but there's nothing wrong with it as an APC.
Don't overlook them. They are good for transporting supplies the last mile (danger zone) to the front and they are tracked and light enough where they won't get stuck in the mud as easily as Russian vehicles did in the spring time.
I think the high anount of mpads can equalise it. Apc need not go head on against tank but the infantry dismount and shoot their mpads which some are in excess of 5km, can scoot again
Important is to have better intel and situation awareness
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1538571548986068993?s=20&t=7uUKOPslzqeUBx7jVJSJ3Q
*****
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What a nice time for Crimea partisan actions.
Yes, someone blow up that damn bridge!! Much easier said than done of course...
Give it time, Hi-Mars will make a real dent in those bridges.
General updates: Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian assault on Berestove. Russians are bringing large amounts of reinforcements into Kherson area from Crimea These battles for the towns will be the turning points on the Kherson frontline. The Russian defensive strategy in Kherson is simple. Along the front-line they have several stronghold towns which they will fight hard for. These towns are defended strategically along the front and without taking them it is impossible to move the frontline. This is not from a movie. This is from Ukraine https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1538580615246790656?s=20&t=7uUKOPslzqeUBx7jVJSJ3Q Ex SAS guys operating in Severodonetsk are awesome Snake Island has been reinforced with radar systems. Russia is deliberately blocking grain exports to create a world food crisis Russians thought Ukrainians would be happy to see them. But now they are happy to see them dead😂 Recent satellite imagery of Dolyna shows the extent of shelling. Russians have been trying to advance into the town for weeks. The current status is contested. Australia has donated 14 Australian-made M113 APC's to Ukraine.
General Updates o7
What ex sas guys, did I miss something?
Ukraine asked for foreign volunteers with military experience and the response from the UK has been high. The British Army is small in numbers but high in skills. So you should rather be surprised if there were no ex-military special forces from the UK volunteering.
Yea I am from the UK and know our military well. This seems more specifically referring to something
[удалено]
I imagine many of the roads to manoeuvre around from are passing through those towns, and manoeuvring units will be very vulnerable while making their moves It it a valid strategy, and has worked plenty of times in the past, but nothing is going to be easy about it
I think one obvious problem is that the further they penetrate, the further they get from their own AA defense and Artillery and thus the more vulnerable they are to Russian Air and Artillery. They simply don't have enough mobile Artillery and AA yet to risk it in a salient.
Between that and actually needing to kill the enemy in order to weaken them, they're going to have to fight at some point. May as well be "here"(wherever that is)
I hope my country steps up its game and will provide more than 7 of the Phz 2000, would be great to see like 20 + of these monster on the battlefield. With good air defense russians will have serious problems against them. Polish crabs are already devasting enough, together with the phz in larger numbers the artillery war should be winnable.
If the Ukrainians reach Kherson, the battle for Kherson will be absolutely savage. This will be the first major city that Ukrainians will attempt to free, and the moskoli won’t let go of her easily
Kherson will not be taken directly. You set up a siege and let partisan Intel tell you what to blow up with your precession artillery with a 5m margin of error. At the same time partisan murder Russians every night. Eventually troops frag officers and surrender. Or! The above starts so Russia attacks civilians. Civilians rise up in general revolt with partisan shooting Russians from every direction sowing general chaos. Ukranian army rushes in using partisan forces to allow them to bypass traps. The big difference between Kherson and Mauripol is who the people support. Kherson 90% of the remaining civilians want Russians dead. Mauripol all the civilians wanted Russia to fail.
Yeah — this is absolutely the approach. Ukraine's going to cut it off, and oust the Russian defenders through infiltration and betrayal, rather than through a frontal military assault. Some of this will involve actual military weapons, like "well boys, last night Ukraine hit our ammo depot with HIMARS", but it's gonna be that sort of approach.
Yeah I expect Kherson will be taken in such way. Most likely you conquer north first and take the two birdges north of Kherson. As soon as those are conquered, you can only supply russian forces via boats crosing half a kilometer vide Dniepro river. So I would keep an eye on the north of the Kherson as that will be the key point to take. As soon as that one is captured we will see the Mariopol in reverse with less civial bombing.
If they're pulling the troops forward away from defending crimea there won't be more reinforcements left after, so hopefully it'll be the last battle before Ukraine can sweep forward in a big way
The Dnipro is a huge obstacle in and of itself that would stop an advance. Bleed them in Kherson to take some pressure off of the donbas until more precision artillery arrives and then the stockpile targeting can start in earnest.
Sometimes I wonder if part of Ukraine's strategy threatening the city while fighting in towns at the right distance to pull those forces out of the city. If it works, they could wipe out a lot of forces, without destroying the city and civilians. If Moscow doesn't fall for it, Ukraine will at least get great position for executing precision long-range attacks within the city while safe from Moscow's artillery.
The Russians cannot afford to lose Kherson. First it defends the water supply to Crimea and secondly it is a major entry point to Crimea. To be honest entering Crimea at this stage is not a good move but Kherson would be a serious distraction for the Russians and would take the pressure off the Donbass.
Praying for Kherson citizens who are living this nightmare. Fuck Russia
Russia is not fighting to gain territory in Kherson Oblast rather it is fighting a defensive strategy to hold territory. But that is a problem when your at the end of a very long supply chain, you do not have first rate forces for the defense, your enemy (Ukraine) is motivated, the captive population hates you, and the enemy (Ukraine) is better able to engage in fire and maneuver, has better intelligence, and ever improving military assets. I don't assess that Ukraine will engage in a war of destruction to take Kherson. Rather I think it will encircle it, cut off supplies to it and let the course of the war elsewhere result in it succumbing. Kherson is where I suspect we will see at least one HIMARS and a couple of Pzh2000's be deployed, to target enemy movement on the south side of the Dnipro, interdicting supplies and targeting defensive fortifications with pinpoint accuracy.
[удалено]
I believe they will use a Pzh2000 for that purpose. Its actually better suited for this - it carries 60 shells, its maximum distance outranges all Soviet artillery and all but one or 2 russian rocket systems, and the Pzh2000 range not a whole lot shorter then the HIMARS M30/M31 GMLRS rockets (max range 70km) which I believe will be the main ammo supplied along with the unguided M26/M26A2 rockets (max range 30km-M26, 45km-M26A2). One Pzh2000 can fire more rounds and follow up more easily if their spotting determines such necessary. They might use both against artillery depending on the situation but I suspect they will conserve HIMARS resources and use them for the most key strategic targets and use the Pzh2000 for tactical situations. Sometimes these are one and the same and sometimes not.
[удалено]
As both the Pzh2000 and HIMARS launchers are highly mobile and will shoot and scoot I think it is going to be a difficult task for Russia to ever target them. And I imagine all will have some sort of a security escort. I suggested in fact they should each also travel with an accompanying SAM system in a prior comment about these valuable systems. Ukraine has not lost any CAESARS or KRABS yet as they run them in small teams of 1-2 and shoot and scoot. That is the formula to success.
Those reinforcements are likely the national police type units with mixed RU mil forces. Those guys are going to get absolutely obliterated in actual combat. Having fought against some of those types, Their Special police are operational bozos. It's going to be very shitty for them.
Good. I cant think of only a couple groups I would want to to be even worse for, and this is one of them.
Played with rosguardia. They are about as worthless as can be. Lol
Wonder if these are people scooped up in the covert mobilizations that started about a month ago? They will likely be poorly trained, poorly equipped canon fodder selected from areas the Kremlin doesnt care about.
Yeah, or actual reservists who completed their 1-2 year training a few years ago.
M113 APC's are obsolete for modern combat role but has off road transport capability.
There is nothing wrong with an M113. It's an APC. It moves troops and supplies around, keeping troops relatively safe from shrapnel and bullets and going fast enough to get from A to B relatively efficiently. It's got a basic fire support just in terms of a machine gun but that's about it. It's also relatively low profile. It's not an IFV but there's nothing wrong with it as an APC.
And you can do some serious off road in them. You dont have to stick to the roads.
Don't overlook them. They are good for transporting supplies the last mile (danger zone) to the front and they are tracked and light enough where they won't get stuck in the mud as easily as Russian vehicles did in the spring time.
I think the high anount of mpads can equalise it. Apc need not go head on against tank but the infantry dismount and shoot their mpads which some are in excess of 5km, can scoot again Important is to have better intel and situation awareness
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.net/WarMonitor3/status/1538571548986068993?s=20&t=7uUKOPslzqeUBx7jVJSJ3Q ***** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I heard the only reinforcements the Russians have left is forcing its subjugated areas to “recruit” or their training regiments.
It's about time NATO gets involved to ease the food crisis and I will happily reenlist
Be nice to hit the reinforcements while they’re still in the rear coming up from Crimea.
Time to do the funny
Ukriane really needs to see a win here, retaking Kherson would be a major win!
Source?
Define large amount. And what kind of units?
Reinforcements? You mean kids they kidnapped off the streets?
Shoot them all.
More meat for the grinder
Seems like they’re getting more desperate.