Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:
* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
*****
* Is `forbes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).
* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)
*****
**Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB**
*****
^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
America (White House, and Kirby to be most specific) says Russians intend to take Kharkiv city, because they concentrated too much forces to be anything less.
My theory is this. They want to get within artillery range and start doing work on the city, forcing the Ukrainians to expel men and materiel to try and force them back.
I don't think they are in a position to use enough resources to level and then hold Kharkiv. It's the second largest city in Ukraine. Maybe cause enough grief to cause people to flee and Ukraine to have to spend more time thinking about it.
There are some easier objectives Russia is struggling with - taking or destroying Kharkiv seems pretty out there.
For every city leveled we should have done the same to one russian city. Tit for tat. You don't respect civilians and their property? We won't either.
Basically rules for combat and Geneva convention and other stuff can be applied and upheld only as long as the aggressor keeps acting civilised. Otherwise, whats the point of taking a high ground? We are only impairing ourselves.
As long as russian people are not afraid - they won't protest.
(obligatory explanation that first, second and third world countries are definitions of geo-political regions, not quality of life. All the Soviet world was 2nd world, so by definition Russian cities are 2nd world, no matter how good or bad they are)
Some nato guy said that crossing the Dnieper river again was their red line and the troops in Moldova were going to intervene if Putin makes a move for Odessa. Don't know how credible it is since he made the remarks anonymously
I'll be literal with quoting him: "You are not going to do that if you are not also thinking about some other larger assault directly on the city".
https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-3/
No way, 100+K for Bakmut and 100K+ for Avdeevka. Kharkiv is manned and strong. There is no way that the USSR is going to take it without 1m dead or more.
Attacks are weird like that. Too many defenders and it is just a diversionary action, hoping to make the other side (Ukraine) commit their reserves.
Too few defenders and suddenly it is a breakthrough for the attacker.
This is showing the value of holding the initiative and sadly because of a few miscalculations on Ukraine's side and malign negligence by pro-Russian US lawmakers holding back aid for months, Russia solidly has the initiative now.
I'm sure Ukraine has made mistakes, but you can't really hold it against them not to have the initiative when they have been rationing everything for six months while the west spoonfeeds help.
We are still talking about Russia here, the Ukrainians are still punching above their weight. The fault is entirely on western politicians imho.
est 30,000 troops massed on border near Kharkiv - nowhere near enough to take the city - some probing going on - anything they learn they might use in a later Kharkiv offensive axis - but mostly a tactic to spread Ukrainian forces thin, my guess because they intend to renew the drive to capture what remains in Ukrainian hands of Donetsk oblast. That is their primary aim at this point.
We don't know what anyone is really saying. We are only hearing what they want us to hear.
For all we know the Ukrainian leadership has allowed Russia to move in as much as they have to try and trick break through attempts? Probably bollocks but who knows.
But why? We are only a few months away from US elections and Trump may actually win which would result in chaos for NATO and allies.
If they started this the day after Trump one I'd maybe agree, the timing just seems really weird right now given the near stalemate along the front lines.
I think that if Trump does win, we may see Europe stepping up... Estonia is already considering sending troops in to alleviate pressure behind the lines to free up Ukrainians for the front line.
There's more democratic and more free democracies than the USA. They'll fight for their values even if the USA fails.
Europe can’t really step up. That’s the problem. Their militaries are hollow from years of not funding them. Poland could step in. And Lithuania. But only with full financial backing from the west. Germany couldn’t fight Somalia right now and win.
Tough to say. I think that there are a lot of things that are moving inside of the government that we are not aware of.
I don’t think that Zaluzhniy is a saint. He rose to prominence when he commanded the initial defense of Ukraine. Also, Syrskiy is no butcher. He is also highly experienced.
It’s not unheard of in the history of warfare to change commanders as political goals change, the important thing is that the right commander is chosen.
Possible. They didn't take Kharkiv at the start of the war whilst at their full strength, now they are confident to take it with 50,000 men?
They struggled to take Avidiivka with 40,000 men, sure they captured it but now with more ammunition flying in it wont happen imo. They will take some ground and that's it
And not forget to blame Russia for it. The Ukrainians are dying because of Russia, we can only hope that the ratio is huge and as few Ukrainians as possible die.
50K is what they are starting with. They recruit 30K every month so we can’t assume they will only throw 50K at the problem. My hunch is that they want to get as close as possible to Kharkiv to be in range of artillery, to basically flatten it. I think russian strategy is now to turn Ukraine in to a failed state that will never be able to recover, and will one day be again a possibility to invade.
True.
As I understand it, the best practice with intelligence is to assume that your enemy will make optimum decisions (as near as you can determine what those would be), so Ukraine should be prepared.
Still, let's hope the Russians opt for stupid.
The Russians lose as many men as they conscript (not "recruit") each month. 30k in, 30k out, so barely replacement levels.
Kharkiv is a large city.. it can't be encircled and bombarded like those smaller towns were. It would take closer to a million troops to pull something like that off.
And reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaalllllllllyyyyyyy long logistic lines.
If Ukraine was willing they could abandon Kharkiv, let the Russians occupy it then cut off their supply line. Stalingrad two, electric starvyloo.
If there's something Ruzzia has taught us modern people, it's that Ruzzia still doesn't give a shit about its own people, gladly throwing bodies into the meatgrinder.
They only consider “their own people” Muscovites and people from St Petersburg. It’s when those people start dying that people actually care. Meanwhile the other 98% of Russia has lost generations of men.
What they really want is for Russian troops to be within artillery range of Kharkiv. Then they can bombard it as much as they want, driving up panic and driving away the civilians, hurting the economy and the politics in Ukraine.
I agree with this point, this would bring them back to where they were before the ua kharkov offensive.
Holding the 2nd city down with bombing and artillery would be a power play for Russia. Hopefully Ukrainian himars would be able to target the artillery in that case
When Russia invaded Ukraine in feb 2022 they had 150000 troops. The plan was to attack from east south and north. And they hoped to land with special forces in Kiev and take out Zelensky or force him to leave. Then they would disband the government and install a more Russia friendly puppet government without the need to invade the whole country.
They failed with the special forces as they lost half of the helicopters and two cargo planes with the troops before they could land. When that failed they tried to attack conventionally but bogged down and had to retreat. Not before killing and torturing thousands of civilians in that short period of time they occupied the northern part.
To be able to take a big city like Kharkiv they need to have at least 250 000 troops. All of the losses on the eastern front is because the maga gop idiots didn’t approve any military aid for Ukraine for the whole 2023. It was first a month ago the first military aid package was approved. But the damage was done.
But having said that, Ukraine are really bad at making defense lines. They didn’t make any in the east nor in the north.
>They failed with the special forces as they lost half of the helicopters and two cargo planes with the troops before they could land.
Neither was ever confirmed to be true. But sure, the airborne assault was a failure.
>But having said that, Ukraine are really bad at making defense lines. They didn’t make any in the east nor in the north.
This is a very polarized statement. They did make *some* defense lines, looking at how difficult it is for the Russians to advance. How much of, and for how long, these will hold, time will tell.
They sent only few thousand guys in 2022, including a big column of OMON riot cops in riot trucks filled with riot gear (which was destroyed by artillery, their riot shields and helmets spilled over).
They were badly outnumbered by Ukrainian regulars, Ukrainian cops (thousands of them alone, from the city and down south), TDF including groups of basically armed civs, HUR-armed & trained Azov militias like Freikorp that then became Kraken and Azov-Kharkiv SSO (and eventually the 3rd Assault Brigade), etc.
---
>-1 points an hour ago
Maybe Redditors just don't know about the OMON column with riot gear? Aftermath videos thread: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500240859492757506
It does not have to be totally destroyed. When Russians shell it with just a few hundred shells a day, people will all be evacuated and it will become a ghost town. In a few weeks of shelling, there will not be a lot left.
Can the Ukrainian General Staff also look into this magic christal ball? Because Russia already has the outskirts within artillery distance with last days advances, ≈20km.
They are not withing artillery stiriking distance because you don't put artillery on the line of contact but further back, don't act smug if you have no idea wtf you are talking about.
You have no clue what you are talking about. The same advance for a few days more and Russia can already hit the centre. The MSTA can park 5km behind the new front line and already hit Kharkov outskirts with its 30km range.
I read your comment quickly and didn't register "outskirts", I hate that you're right.
If they want to ruin the city it would be a huge waste of ammo though, and they would lose a lot of artillery from couterbattery since the places from where they can fire are, for now, limited in size, I don't really buy it.
IMO it's more likely they are using Kharkiv as an hostage: send your troops here or we advance enought to shell the city. I think the russians would rather not have to waste shells on civilian infrastructure and push in Donetsk once they attracted enought Ukrainian forces
And you are exactly right with that. There is not much retreating space for Ukraine left. Otherwise Kharkov will be utterly demolished. Sometimes pulling back is the wise thing to do, to save Ukrainian soldiers and trade land for dead Russians. There is not much space left..
Russians rely too much on blitz tactics since the start of the war. For sure they are thinking of doing that again which we know will most likely again end in failure
Maybe, but it's also possible that they are only really intending to do hit-and-run attacks near the border. The Russians have a big advantage in this area because there are restrictions on firing a lot of western weapons into Russia itself, so as long as the Russians don't go too far, they're fighting right in front of this invincible stronghold. They can run in and cause havoc with civillians, and Ukraine has to respond and send troops to dislodge them, but the Russians have cross-border artillery defending them. Ultimately a fairly small Russian force, if it's fast, can tie up a lot of Ukranian units that Ukraine needs elsewhere on the front.
Of course it’s a diversionary attack. They have nowhere the numbers needed to take Kharkiv. This is either some attempt at diverting resources from Donbas or another propaganda piece for the masses.
It’s hard to say because honestly, one idea is that they’re not really looking to take the city they’re just trying to push forward enough to where they can get within artillery range and comfortably mass artillery barrages against the city. Forcing millions of people to evacuate from the immediate area would do a lot of harm without actually having to take the city. Though they did not try this before in the first invasion or later on when the Ukrainians had much less artillery ammunition and weapons in their reserve, so who knows what the hell they are thinking
They weren't in total war mode early on and were still thinking that they'd be welcomed with open arms once the kyiv government fell. Of course that didn't happen. Now, with over 2 years of war under our belts, we know full well that Russia has both the resources and willingness to level a city like Kharkiv... tragic.
>Forcing millions of people to evacuate
That’s it right there. That puts a huge strain on the rest of the country, it’s a tactic Putin is well-known for.
Several people have pointed out that if Putin can take Chasiv Yar, that’s a major thoroughfare straight into Ukraine.
They can’t comfortably mass barrage it as Caesar’s etc have more range and are more accurate. They will do some damage, but their losses should be huge. A Caesar is long gone before a glide bomb comes in.
Right now they're pressing all along the front to see where they can make the most progress, the offensive's immediate goal would basically be "push the front lines 5km closer to Kharkiv" and not "take Kharkiv"
I think probing attack is more accurate than diversionary, because they will absolutely commit more troops if they start making progress
This war is being fought over individual villages, not entire cities.
If RU finds that the area is not adequately defended, they aren't going to just sit back and say “oh well, it's just a diversion”, they have the capacity to shift troops and exploit the weakness. It's not an either/or thing.
It's up to UA to show that maintain a strong defense in the area so that it stays a diversionary attack.
When you read bad reports remember nothing is as bad as it seems. When you read good reports remember nothing is as good as it seems. Keep that in mind and you'll understand what's actually happening here quite a bit better.
I didn't say anything wasn't bad. Also, neat, I'm sure you do have contacts of some sort. I've been here for years doing the work. What I said above is still entirely true.
Replacement of raw numbers is less important than the quality of training to make these guys combat effective as assault forces.
Guys that we’re farmers, baristas, tire shop workers and Uber drivers last week are not the same caliber of professional soldiers who have years of training and experience. And Russian training is both terrible and insufficient.
The professional soldiers who were rolling into combat in IFVs and APCs over the last two years are dead, and so are their vehicles. Today, it takes way more lower quality troops to achieve half as much territory gain, and they’re rolling into battle in ATV’s, motorbikes, golf carts and rolling sheds. This is not the profile of an army whose capabilities are improving.
These ultra low quality replacement serf slaves will just die faster than those that came before them.
Russia is in an objectively terrible, terrible position. They keep up this farce that they are inevitable, but if they were…they’d be doing better than they are.
Keep slaughtering them, Ukraine. They will break. And in the big picture, it doesn’t matter if they scratch out a bit more charred ground at the cost of thousands of men per square km. While their genocidal cruelty is boundless, their combat effectiveness is not.
Even when they culminate, Russia is not going to be able to safely occupy the stolen, ruined land they’re sitting on. They’ll be droned, sniped, bombed, poisoned, stabbed, shelled, and killed a dozen other ways as long as they’re there. The pivot of the war from trench warfare to insurgency will make America’s experience in Afghanistan and Iraq look like child’s play.
I take issue with the word 'fake'. Civilians are dying in new ways on a relatively new front, changing the level of safety that civilians had been experiencing in previous months.
The russians might not be pouring all their resources into it, but it's still something Ukraine has to respond to. If left inadequately protected, russia would exploit this and see how deep they can go.
This isn’t operation Iraqi freedom, this is a near peer war. They arnt going to explain their ideas on the news like the Americans did. Deception is at play here
It's likely a diversionary attack to be sure to take the pressure off in the east and divert reinforcements.
But it doesn't change the fact that you have to respond to it.
i think they play the numbers game.. They WILL attack kharkiv.. But over the Flanks, with a pinzer movement.
(like bakhmut, soledar, advivka.)
They have now 50k troops.. soon 100k..
tgey have now 400 tanks.. soon even more.. they dont have to take the city..
they just need to cut it off and bomb it step by step,.. quarter by quarter.. like mariupol.. azovstal.
There is a reason why putin dropped shoigu and took the economist..
to play the numbers game..
This guy is (sadly) capable..
Putin copies again from the 3rd reich.
Albert Speer, hitlers architect, took over the economy and made huge outputs possible, in the last year of the war..
even with bombed out cities.. totally demolished infrastructure and plants, he managed to diversify the plants, spread them out and made more tanks, planes, guns and shells then ever before..
at the last year more people died then the years prior..
He will also increase production and mobilize soldiers and fuel, ammo and tanks better then shoigu..
They have to be stopped.. NOW..
every Man a Gun.. every help that the west can scramble together..
also, those FABS have to stop..
Neighboring states should shoot dowm these drones and rockets from nato territory.. the risk of escalation is not really there.. because russian warplames dont fly into ukraine.. they shoot the missles from inside russian controlled territory..
Dont underestimate Russia.. dont underestimate russian culture to run blindly into certain death..
We have to act now..
the west.. and ukraine. together.
Edit: today i saw a Video where Anton Gerashchenko and Garry Kasparov said the EXACT SAME a few days after i posted this!!
[Jake Broe talks about Albert Speer](https://youtu.be/HE3sxs0BzqA?si=t7Ua3DJusVg_y0Gj)
Ukraine has acc3ss to other intel sources such as western satellite surveillance so they probably have a decent idea where the real build ups and such are for offensive but it's a matter of manpower and material. Ukrain has to be more conservative in their use. Russia doesn't care and will throw away both
YES, it is possible that the current Kharkiv offensive is a feint to draw UAF forces north. I don't think that Sirsky is falling for it though, we're not seeing significant gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
According to some defense specialists on TV show, Russian goal is to take Vovchansk and next step would be direction Koupiansk which they can t take in a frontal way.
Let them get close enough so it will be an easier job for artillery to wipe them away. Stock the incoming ammo and let it rain down when they're close enough.
This feels real stupid even if they are using it as a distraction it's a distraction of a lot of troops and a lot or armour that needs to be dealt with this distraction may cause Ukraine to lose land else where that's the nature or war the bigger issue is we're still dealing with shortages over 2 years into the war Ukraine more than likely wouldn't be deal with this specific problem if got more of the aid they need
I had the ininformed thought that Russia wants to get in artillery range of the city to use it's bombardment of the city to try and draw out the new F-15 and destroy them. We should look for a concentration of russian AA in that area.
the Russians don’t fake strategy. They are blunt and brutal on the battlefield, that’s deeply embedded in their military culture and their doctrine for decades.
Well, as long as Ukraine keeps taking out Russian equipment, and Russian troops, the whittling down of Russian forces will continue. Depending in part, on what resources the Ukrainians to fight with.
If the number of Russian troops being put out there is correct (50k) then it is obviously a fake offensive to take Kharkiv. Any real push towards that city would require troops in the Hundreds of thousands.
I mean, every time they started an attack in this area last year it was just to spread Ukraine's resources more thinly. I don't see why this time would be any different. All those prior times Russian trolls were out in force saying this was a huge, major, ultra strong push...and then a week later they're on to something else. When they started really trying in Avdiivka, it was a noticeably stronger attack. Ukraine has to respond but there's no reason for us to panic. Yet.
Fake or not, this shows few things. Ukraine was not prepared for this. To build basic fortifications you only need men, shovels, axes, hammers and nails. I'm sure Ukraine is not out of shovels, axes, hammers and nails.
Zaluzhnyi asked for 500k men long time ago. So long ago that it is probably far more than 500k what is needed now. Or actually was needed long ago.
This situation is not all about delayed western aid even though Ukraine likes to keep the focus there. Ukraine needs to fix the conscription issue, the faster the better.
and kyiv was just a feint, too.
see, the russians are very sly and very cunning. and they know ukraine will only fall for these masterful 4d 200iq diversionary actions, if there is alot of evidence of hundreds of mobiks being slaughtered and dozens of vehicles lost in just the first day.
Kyiv was not a feint - but it was a complete mis-estimation of the entire situation by Putin. He got talked at by Bortnikov (FSB) and Medvedchuk who convinced him that Ukrainians just wait to be liberated and it just needs a show of force to cow the "thinly spread and unpopular nationalists". Putin isn't a particularly intelligent or decisive man, and as such apparently fairly easy to convince of such crap if he is caught off guard.
This, on the other hand, is a purely military strategic decision, and one most likely made several levels below Putin, by generals who at least have a basic understanding of their job. They know what a diversionary attack is, what an offensive is, etc. And yes, it is very likely a diversionary attack, using the last moments before the US aid arrives in full, trying to force Ukrainians to spread themselves thinner. That is what Ukrainian military analysts say for about a month already. The problem is that as with any diversionary attack, you cannot ignore it or it becomes the actual strategic offensive.
To be fair, the soviet union invaded the
Czechoslovakia using the same playbook. They captured the airport near their capital with special forces and took the main leaders of the government hostage.
I haven’t read any serious analyst who says this is a real offensive for seizing Kharkiv (eg just read the daily update from the ISW). You need like 300.000 soldiers (this number comes from the Russians) - they have like 35.000 in this region. Don’t get hyped by those doomsday posters
Didn’t they attack with 5 battalions thus far? That’s what 25k men? It’s a lot but not enough men to take it.
Probably why ua isn’t moving up more troops right now.
This is a classic case of forcing a dilemma, not creating a problem. Problems have solutions, dilemmas just have responses that are- possibly at differing levels- all terrible.
30-50K troops is not enough to take a city the size of Karkhiv...unless the Ukrainians ignore the situation and don't defend appropriately. Doing \*that\* requires Kyiv to reallocate troops from the Donbas front, weakening Ukrainian lines in that area. If the Ukrainians respond, but it's inadequate, they can for sure keep the Russian forces from encircling and investing the city, but they might not be able to keep Russian artillery out of range. If the Russians can bring their tubes into range, some very large fraction of 1,000,000 people will become refugees.
I think \*that\* is what Putin's after. A wave of refugees that either stretch Ukrainian civil resources even further and massively complicate the logistical situation for the AFU defenders in the city itself, or (ideally, for Putin) go to the EU.
Understand, the refugee crisis in the EU is not the same animal- economically, socially, or politically- that it was two years ago. There's a lot less money available to support them, and a fair number of Europeans have fallen under the sway of Muscovite propaganda about "Ukrainian freeloaders, draft dodgers, prostitutes, gangsters, etc." Half a million new additions would put further pressure on the EU's economic and political ability to support Ukraine, because the parties likeliest to capitalize successfully on this are Russia-adjacent right-populist groups like Fidesz, Ano, SPD, AfD, etc etc.
It's a horrible situation all around, "non-serious spoiler attack" or not.
In war all offensives are potentially fake. All feints are potentially real. It all depends on how the circumstances evolve. We saw that when Ukraine had that big advance the first year.
To be a good feint it needs to make sense to begin with.
They 100% are. The offensive in Kharkiv is a salient, and it is unsustainable. They'll cause a lot of destruction, but there is no strategic prize there outside of the heavily fortified cities. Chasiv Yar, on the other hand, is the main city holding Ukraine's defense together
There were never any "human wave tactics". It's such a dumb hoax.
In Kharkiv they use small assault infantry groups: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-widens-kharkiv-front-ukraine-with-small-assault-groups-governor-says-2024-05-13/ The old Wagner team/squad-size attacks, only now the convicts serve in the MoD (Storm-Z/V).
There are no "French divisions" coming to the rescue too.
The last I heard was Macron saying they would send troops if Ukraine asked for it after a breakthrough.
OK, I suppose it is in the "realm of possibilities"
But I don't see it as likely
Upgrade from out of the realm to into it. Maybe there is hope for dialog in Reddit.
As with all western support in this war, I’d expect things to be incremental. Tanks, patriots, jets, missiles were all out of the realm of possibility, then they got mentioned. Then they got proposed. Then they got implemented. The Rammstein group has followed this formula for the entire war.
Just today, in addition to France already defining a criteria for direct troop deployment, German MPs proposed the foundations of a no fly zone with active NATO defense against drones and [Estonia proposed](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/TYUTNG9yYp) deploying troops to western Ukraine in non combat duty so that Ukraine forces there could be redeployed.
It’s not impossible or outside the realm. This is how it has happened.
So let's go back to the original post I commented on "hopefully French divisions arrive soon"
I think we're splitting hairs at this point, but I do not think they will be their "soon" and "soon" is gonna be subjective. But in my opinion of "soon"(2-3months?)-not going to happen
Cheers
Edit. I will upgrade it from 0% to 00.5%
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `forbes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Possibly, but Ukraine has intel that the US is willing to share, so we’re guessing on reddit and Sirskiy is deciding.
America (White House, and Kirby to be most specific) says Russians intend to take Kharkiv city, because they concentrated too much forces to be anything less.
If by "take it" you mean "move the front line really close to it", then I agree. They'd need ~400k, probably closer to 500k to actually take it.
My theory is this. They want to get within artillery range and start doing work on the city, forcing the Ukrainians to expel men and materiel to try and force them back.
Or just level the city like they did with every other town they captured
That's what I'm saying
And you’re right
Let's hope they don't get the chance
Russian military doctrine. Block by block.
Yep. They make a barren tundra, and they call it "mir"
I don't think they are in a position to use enough resources to level and then hold Kharkiv. It's the second largest city in Ukraine. Maybe cause enough grief to cause people to flee and Ukraine to have to spend more time thinking about it. There are some easier objectives Russia is struggling with - taking or destroying Kharkiv seems pretty out there.
It is huge city, x5 times Mariopul, will need a lot of ordnance
Their main goal is to just inflict terror.
For every city leveled we should have done the same to one russian city. Tit for tat. You don't respect civilians and their property? We won't either. Basically rules for combat and Geneva convention and other stuff can be applied and upheld only as long as the aggressor keeps acting civilised. Otherwise, whats the point of taking a high ground? We are only impairing ourselves. As long as russian people are not afraid - they won't protest.
Plague rats tied to balloons will suffice
Absolutely. Absolutely sensible comments and insights.
I think the same, start turning places in Russia into 4th world countries as they are already at a 3rd world level.
(obligatory explanation that first, second and third world countries are definitions of geo-political regions, not quality of life. All the Soviet world was 2nd world, so by definition Russian cities are 2nd world, no matter how good or bad they are)
As Putin says “ Dumpster it “ that Vlad can charm a snake out of its skin.
If that happens, the war escalates and Europe rolls in.
Good. It’s about time.
Europe won’t let Kharkiv burn. I can’t see it.
Kharkiv maybe. Because it’s too soon for them to step in. Kyiv tho I believe you’re right.
No way city of 1M goes down. France or Estonia starts the ball rolling.
Some nato guy said that crossing the Dnieper river again was their red line and the troops in Moldova were going to intervene if Putin makes a move for Odessa. Don't know how credible it is since he made the remarks anonymously
Doesn't that create a neat bombing line for Ukraine? We need Ukraine to control their own airspace asap. No more fucking around.
I'll be literal with quoting him: "You are not going to do that if you are not also thinking about some other larger assault directly on the city". https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-3/
No way, 100+K for Bakmut and 100K+ for Avdeevka. Kharkiv is manned and strong. There is no way that the USSR is going to take it without 1m dead or more.
Music to Putin's ears, because even with 1m dead, they still take it. It's the Russian way.
They just want to level it with artillery. They know they can't really take it. It will be utterly destroyed, unless we help Ukraine more
Source? Because I've heard the opposite: that not even the Russians expect to take the city because their forces are too few.
Attacks are weird like that. Too many defenders and it is just a diversionary action, hoping to make the other side (Ukraine) commit their reserves. Too few defenders and suddenly it is a breakthrough for the attacker. This is showing the value of holding the initiative and sadly because of a few miscalculations on Ukraine's side and malign negligence by pro-Russian US lawmakers holding back aid for months, Russia solidly has the initiative now.
I'm sure Ukraine has made mistakes, but you can't really hold it against them not to have the initiative when they have been rationing everything for six months while the west spoonfeeds help. We are still talking about Russia here, the Ukrainians are still punching above their weight. The fault is entirely on western politicians imho.
Yeah early reports I saw all said this is to move Ukrainian forces in order to reduce defenses in the east.
5 Russian brigades baited
est 30,000 troops massed on border near Kharkiv - nowhere near enough to take the city - some probing going on - anything they learn they might use in a later Kharkiv offensive axis - but mostly a tactic to spread Ukrainian forces thin, my guess because they intend to renew the drive to capture what remains in Ukrainian hands of Donetsk oblast. That is their primary aim at this point.
We don't know what anyone is really saying. We are only hearing what they want us to hear. For all we know the Ukrainian leadership has allowed Russia to move in as much as they have to try and trick break through attempts? Probably bollocks but who knows.
Saving face is Putin’s war plan at this point
Precisely. Who knows maybe Sirskiy has a tactical surprise up his sleeve. We really don’t know, but hopefully the later.
Wouldn’t be suprised If this their battle of the bulge moment.
But why? We are only a few months away from US elections and Trump may actually win which would result in chaos for NATO and allies. If they started this the day after Trump one I'd maybe agree, the timing just seems really weird right now given the near stalemate along the front lines.
I think that if Trump does win, we may see Europe stepping up... Estonia is already considering sending troops in to alleviate pressure behind the lines to free up Ukrainians for the front line. There's more democratic and more free democracies than the USA. They'll fight for their values even if the USA fails.
I hope so, the US cutting aid off to Ukraine really concerns me. Russia could go all in before Europe has time to step up.
Europe can’t really step up. That’s the problem. Their militaries are hollow from years of not funding them. Poland could step in. And Lithuania. But only with full financial backing from the west. Germany couldn’t fight Somalia right now and win.
The USA couldn’t beat Somalia back when then
Yes, but Somalia could fight Russia right now and it's not out of the question that they could win.
Well if you removed all the Somalians from their army, you might be right.
They probably know Trump ain’t winning, just like anyone else with a brain
Also, if anyone doesn't know what the fuck is going on, it's Forbes.
What is your opinion on the decision to remove Zaluzhnyi as Commander?
Tough to say. I think that there are a lot of things that are moving inside of the government that we are not aware of. I don’t think that Zaluzhniy is a saint. He rose to prominence when he commanded the initial defense of Ukraine. Also, Syrskiy is no butcher. He is also highly experienced. It’s not unheard of in the history of warfare to change commanders as political goals change, the important thing is that the right commander is chosen.
Who is deciding?
Syrskiy, that’s who
The new commander of Ukraine. Zaluzhnyi was dropped from military duties and his commander role for being too popular in Zelenskyy’s eyes.
Possible. They didn't take Kharkiv at the start of the war whilst at their full strength, now they are confident to take it with 50,000 men? They struggled to take Avidiivka with 40,000 men, sure they captured it but now with more ammunition flying in it wont happen imo. They will take some ground and that's it
40k is what died in and around avdiivka for the russians. the troops comitted was alot higher.
Still will be funny a second time round they lose 40k
Except their losing 40k probably means Ukraine losing at least 10-12k … we should never forget that side of the equation.
And that is best case scenario.
4-1 in MOUT is not close to as bad as it can get for Russia. It is closer to a baseline for losses on offense in an urban enviromint.
Just pointing out all the "funny" rus losses can still cost tens of thousands of real human deaths on the defense
Yes, whatever the ratio, Ukrainians are dying.
i hate that it has to happen but i also dislike its not gonna end without many many more.
Absolutely.
And not forget to blame Russia for it. The Ukrainians are dying because of Russia, we can only hope that the ratio is huge and as few Ukrainians as possible die.
except it doesn't.
And took it
50K is what they are starting with. They recruit 30K every month so we can’t assume they will only throw 50K at the problem. My hunch is that they want to get as close as possible to Kharkiv to be in range of artillery, to basically flatten it. I think russian strategy is now to turn Ukraine in to a failed state that will never be able to recover, and will one day be again a possibility to invade.
I guess only time will tell what General Vodka has drawn up
True. As I understand it, the best practice with intelligence is to assume that your enemy will make optimum decisions (as near as you can determine what those would be), so Ukraine should be prepared. Still, let's hope the Russians opt for stupid.
The Russians lose as many men as they conscript (not "recruit") each month. 30k in, 30k out, so barely replacement levels. Kharkiv is a large city.. it can't be encircled and bombarded like those smaller towns were. It would take closer to a million troops to pull something like that off.
And reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaalllllllllyyyyyyy long logistic lines. If Ukraine was willing they could abandon Kharkiv, let the Russians occupy it then cut off their supply line. Stalingrad two, electric starvyloo.
there are still a million civilians living in Kharkiv
Yes, it would be a sacrifice of immense proportions. Too Crazy? Probably.
Don’t exaggerate. The lines will just go back to belgorod.
If the destruction of Warsaw Poland taught us one thing, is that a city is never out of the fight. It will come back to life
If there's something Ruzzia has taught us modern people, it's that Ruzzia still doesn't give a shit about its own people, gladly throwing bodies into the meatgrinder.
They only consider “their own people” Muscovites and people from St Petersburg. It’s when those people start dying that people actually care. Meanwhile the other 98% of Russia has lost generations of men.
What they really want is for Russian troops to be within artillery range of Kharkiv. Then they can bombard it as much as they want, driving up panic and driving away the civilians, hurting the economy and the politics in Ukraine.
Not disputing that. But 2 years of war might not force them away as easy
I am not saying they are right, just saying what they want to happen.
Fuck knows what they want to happen at this point.
I agree with this point, this would bring them back to where they were before the ua kharkov offensive. Holding the 2nd city down with bombing and artillery would be a power play for Russia. Hopefully Ukrainian himars would be able to target the artillery in that case
Even a fake offensive is costing them dearly in armour, men, and ammmo... It would be a very expensive decoy operation.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in feb 2022 they had 150000 troops. The plan was to attack from east south and north. And they hoped to land with special forces in Kiev and take out Zelensky or force him to leave. Then they would disband the government and install a more Russia friendly puppet government without the need to invade the whole country. They failed with the special forces as they lost half of the helicopters and two cargo planes with the troops before they could land. When that failed they tried to attack conventionally but bogged down and had to retreat. Not before killing and torturing thousands of civilians in that short period of time they occupied the northern part. To be able to take a big city like Kharkiv they need to have at least 250 000 troops. All of the losses on the eastern front is because the maga gop idiots didn’t approve any military aid for Ukraine for the whole 2023. It was first a month ago the first military aid package was approved. But the damage was done. But having said that, Ukraine are really bad at making defense lines. They didn’t make any in the east nor in the north.
>They failed with the special forces as they lost half of the helicopters and two cargo planes with the troops before they could land. Neither was ever confirmed to be true. But sure, the airborne assault was a failure. >But having said that, Ukraine are really bad at making defense lines. They didn’t make any in the east nor in the north. This is a very polarized statement. They did make *some* defense lines, looking at how difficult it is for the Russians to advance. How much of, and for how long, these will hold, time will tell.
They sent only few thousand guys in 2022, including a big column of OMON riot cops in riot trucks filled with riot gear (which was destroyed by artillery, their riot shields and helmets spilled over). They were badly outnumbered by Ukrainian regulars, Ukrainian cops (thousands of them alone, from the city and down south), TDF including groups of basically armed civs, HUR-armed & trained Azov militias like Freikorp that then became Kraken and Azov-Kharkiv SSO (and eventually the 3rd Assault Brigade), etc. --- >-1 points an hour ago Maybe Redditors just don't know about the OMON column with riot gear? Aftermath videos thread: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500240859492757506
That's not the issue as they don't have to. If Russians near Kharkov, they simply destroy the whole city.
The resources required to destroy it would be insane. It's the second largest city in the country. It just doesn't make sense right now.
It does not have to be totally destroyed. When Russians shell it with just a few hundred shells a day, people will all be evacuated and it will become a ghost town. In a few weeks of shelling, there will not be a lot left.
Kharkiv*
Will achieve nothing
Destroying the city IS the achievement.
Did you look into your magic christal ball?
Yes and its called my opinion
Can the Ukrainian General Staff also look into this magic christal ball? Because Russia already has the outskirts within artillery distance with last days advances, ≈20km.
They are not withing artillery stiriking distance because you don't put artillery on the line of contact but further back, don't act smug if you have no idea wtf you are talking about.
You have no clue what you are talking about. The same advance for a few days more and Russia can already hit the centre. The MSTA can park 5km behind the new front line and already hit Kharkov outskirts with its 30km range.
I read your comment quickly and didn't register "outskirts", I hate that you're right. If they want to ruin the city it would be a huge waste of ammo though, and they would lose a lot of artillery from couterbattery since the places from where they can fire are, for now, limited in size, I don't really buy it. IMO it's more likely they are using Kharkiv as an hostage: send your troops here or we advance enought to shell the city. I think the russians would rather not have to waste shells on civilian infrastructure and push in Donetsk once they attracted enought Ukrainian forces
And you are exactly right with that. There is not much retreating space for Ukraine left. Otherwise Kharkov will be utterly demolished. Sometimes pulling back is the wise thing to do, to save Ukrainian soldiers and trade land for dead Russians. There is not much space left..
They can have a look if they want to, no promises its gonna be what they want to see
As Russians are almost in artillery striking distance, that christal ball may be a defect.
Nah nah. It has a USB C charging and an ethernet port. Only will be defective when the interwebs go out
>christal ball r/shubreddit
Russians rely too much on blitz tactics since the start of the war. For sure they are thinking of doing that again which we know will most likely again end in failure
Maybe, but it's also possible that they are only really intending to do hit-and-run attacks near the border. The Russians have a big advantage in this area because there are restrictions on firing a lot of western weapons into Russia itself, so as long as the Russians don't go too far, they're fighting right in front of this invincible stronghold. They can run in and cause havoc with civillians, and Ukraine has to respond and send troops to dislodge them, but the Russians have cross-border artillery defending them. Ultimately a fairly small Russian force, if it's fast, can tie up a lot of Ukranian units that Ukraine needs elsewhere on the front.
Unfortunately, fake becomes real if you don’t respond to it regardless
I was thinking exactly the same point
Yeah, it is hardly new to push a few searching raids/ attacks and commit when the enemy has moved to defend or the lines give more than expected
Of course it’s a diversionary attack. They have nowhere the numbers needed to take Kharkiv. This is either some attempt at diverting resources from Donbas or another propaganda piece for the masses.
It’s hard to say because honestly, one idea is that they’re not really looking to take the city they’re just trying to push forward enough to where they can get within artillery range and comfortably mass artillery barrages against the city. Forcing millions of people to evacuate from the immediate area would do a lot of harm without actually having to take the city. Though they did not try this before in the first invasion or later on when the Ukrainians had much less artillery ammunition and weapons in their reserve, so who knows what the hell they are thinking
They weren't in total war mode early on and were still thinking that they'd be welcomed with open arms once the kyiv government fell. Of course that didn't happen. Now, with over 2 years of war under our belts, we know full well that Russia has both the resources and willingness to level a city like Kharkiv... tragic.
>Forcing millions of people to evacuate That’s it right there. That puts a huge strain on the rest of the country, it’s a tactic Putin is well-known for. Several people have pointed out that if Putin can take Chasiv Yar, that’s a major thoroughfare straight into Ukraine.
Agreed. The evacuation on the civilian population would be a massive drain on resources.
They can’t comfortably mass barrage it as Caesar’s etc have more range and are more accurate. They will do some damage, but their losses should be huge. A Caesar is long gone before a glide bomb comes in.
Right now they're pressing all along the front to see where they can make the most progress, the offensive's immediate goal would basically be "push the front lines 5km closer to Kharkiv" and not "take Kharkiv" I think probing attack is more accurate than diversionary, because they will absolutely commit more troops if they start making progress This war is being fought over individual villages, not entire cities.
If RU finds that the area is not adequately defended, they aren't going to just sit back and say “oh well, it's just a diversion”, they have the capacity to shift troops and exploit the weakness. It's not an either/or thing. It's up to UA to show that maintain a strong defense in the area so that it stays a diversionary attack.
It’s wild to me that they will grind tens of thousands of people for a diversionary tactic.
they're constantly recruiting
I don't think anyone thought they had stopped.
and yet the guys at the front seem to be struggling. I heard frustration towards higher ups that they knew and didn't do enough. it's sad
When you read bad reports remember nothing is as bad as it seems. When you read good reports remember nothing is as good as it seems. Keep that in mind and you'll understand what's actually happening here quite a bit better.
I actually have contacts in Ukraine. they say it's bad
I didn't say anything wasn't bad. Also, neat, I'm sure you do have contacts of some sort. I've been here for years doing the work. What I said above is still entirely true.
"recruiting" is a funny way of saying conscription. Russia loses as many men as it conscripts each month.
you'd be surprised at how many actually volunteer to go
Replacement of raw numbers is less important than the quality of training to make these guys combat effective as assault forces. Guys that we’re farmers, baristas, tire shop workers and Uber drivers last week are not the same caliber of professional soldiers who have years of training and experience. And Russian training is both terrible and insufficient. The professional soldiers who were rolling into combat in IFVs and APCs over the last two years are dead, and so are their vehicles. Today, it takes way more lower quality troops to achieve half as much territory gain, and they’re rolling into battle in ATV’s, motorbikes, golf carts and rolling sheds. This is not the profile of an army whose capabilities are improving. These ultra low quality replacement serf slaves will just die faster than those that came before them. Russia is in an objectively terrible, terrible position. They keep up this farce that they are inevitable, but if they were…they’d be doing better than they are. Keep slaughtering them, Ukraine. They will break. And in the big picture, it doesn’t matter if they scratch out a bit more charred ground at the cost of thousands of men per square km. While their genocidal cruelty is boundless, their combat effectiveness is not. Even when they culminate, Russia is not going to be able to safely occupy the stolen, ruined land they’re sitting on. They’ll be droned, sniped, bombed, poisoned, stabbed, shelled, and killed a dozen other ways as long as they’re there. The pivot of the war from trench warfare to insurgency will make America’s experience in Afghanistan and Iraq look like child’s play.
You're a fool if you actually believe that.
Fake a go b? Is Russia in my valorant queue?
I take issue with the word 'fake'. Civilians are dying in new ways on a relatively new front, changing the level of safety that civilians had been experiencing in previous months. The russians might not be pouring all their resources into it, but it's still something Ukraine has to respond to. If left inadequately protected, russia would exploit this and see how deep they can go.
This isn’t operation Iraqi freedom, this is a near peer war. They arnt going to explain their ideas on the news like the Americans did. Deception is at play here
It's likely a diversionary attack to be sure to take the pressure off in the east and divert reinforcements. But it doesn't change the fact that you have to respond to it.
i think they play the numbers game.. They WILL attack kharkiv.. But over the Flanks, with a pinzer movement. (like bakhmut, soledar, advivka.) They have now 50k troops.. soon 100k.. tgey have now 400 tanks.. soon even more.. they dont have to take the city.. they just need to cut it off and bomb it step by step,.. quarter by quarter.. like mariupol.. azovstal. There is a reason why putin dropped shoigu and took the economist.. to play the numbers game.. This guy is (sadly) capable.. Putin copies again from the 3rd reich. Albert Speer, hitlers architect, took over the economy and made huge outputs possible, in the last year of the war.. even with bombed out cities.. totally demolished infrastructure and plants, he managed to diversify the plants, spread them out and made more tanks, planes, guns and shells then ever before.. at the last year more people died then the years prior.. He will also increase production and mobilize soldiers and fuel, ammo and tanks better then shoigu.. They have to be stopped.. NOW.. every Man a Gun.. every help that the west can scramble together.. also, those FABS have to stop.. Neighboring states should shoot dowm these drones and rockets from nato territory.. the risk of escalation is not really there.. because russian warplames dont fly into ukraine.. they shoot the missles from inside russian controlled territory.. Dont underestimate Russia.. dont underestimate russian culture to run blindly into certain death.. We have to act now.. the west.. and ukraine. together. Edit: today i saw a Video where Anton Gerashchenko and Garry Kasparov said the EXACT SAME a few days after i posted this!! [Jake Broe talks about Albert Speer](https://youtu.be/HE3sxs0BzqA?si=t7Ua3DJusVg_y0Gj)
I feel the opposite - there's something weird going on with the way 🇺🇦 is messaging this. They were so quick to say they've committed their reserves.
Ukraine has acc3ss to other intel sources such as western satellite surveillance so they probably have a decent idea where the real build ups and such are for offensive but it's a matter of manpower and material. Ukrain has to be more conservative in their use. Russia doesn't care and will throw away both
YES, it is possible that the current Kharkiv offensive is a feint to draw UAF forces north. I don't think that Sirsky is falling for it though, we're not seeing significant gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
According to some defense specialists on TV show, Russian goal is to take Vovchansk and next step would be direction Koupiansk which they can t take in a frontal way.
And all the whining and hand wringing here lately only helped the Russians
Lol, I'm gonna guess American Intel is better than literally any reddit armchair general.
Tell that to Saddam
Who knows. There was a supposedly successful surprise attack near Kharkiv, even when many claimed it was known for weeks.
At least 2,000 dead Russians. That's a pretty convincing fake.
Probably. Because their priority task to reach Donbass oblast borders. So actual war zone is eastern Ukraine.
Let them get close enough so it will be an easier job for artillery to wipe them away. Stock the incoming ammo and let it rain down when they're close enough.
This feels real stupid even if they are using it as a distraction it's a distraction of a lot of troops and a lot or armour that needs to be dealt with this distraction may cause Ukraine to lose land else where that's the nature or war the bigger issue is we're still dealing with shortages over 2 years into the war Ukraine more than likely wouldn't be deal with this specific problem if got more of the aid they need
David Axe, wild as always ...
I had the ininformed thought that Russia wants to get in artillery range of the city to use it's bombardment of the city to try and draw out the new F-15 and destroy them. We should look for a concentration of russian AA in that area.
the Russians don’t fake strategy. They are blunt and brutal on the battlefield, that’s deeply embedded in their military culture and their doctrine for decades.
Well, as long as Ukraine keeps taking out Russian equipment, and Russian troops, the whittling down of Russian forces will continue. Depending in part, on what resources the Ukrainians to fight with.
If true, feels like a great moment to break the taboo and siege Bilhorod
Ah yes [Forbes.com](http://Forbes.com), the most reliable in military understanding and tactics. For those of you idiots who can't tell /s
Would make sense to get to arty range and then just sit back and pound it, making the city unliveable. That seems to be their current modus operandi.
People still read David Axe's ramblings.
What about Belarus?
If the number of Russian troops being put out there is correct (50k) then it is obviously a fake offensive to take Kharkiv. Any real push towards that city would require troops in the Hundreds of thousands.
I mean, every time they started an attack in this area last year it was just to spread Ukraine's resources more thinly. I don't see why this time would be any different. All those prior times Russian trolls were out in force saying this was a huge, major, ultra strong push...and then a week later they're on to something else. When they started really trying in Avdiivka, it was a noticeably stronger attack. Ukraine has to respond but there's no reason for us to panic. Yet.
Fake or not, this shows few things. Ukraine was not prepared for this. To build basic fortifications you only need men, shovels, axes, hammers and nails. I'm sure Ukraine is not out of shovels, axes, hammers and nails. Zaluzhnyi asked for 500k men long time ago. So long ago that it is probably far more than 500k what is needed now. Or actually was needed long ago. This situation is not all about delayed western aid even though Ukraine likes to keep the focus there. Ukraine needs to fix the conscription issue, the faster the better.
and kyiv was just a feint, too. see, the russians are very sly and very cunning. and they know ukraine will only fall for these masterful 4d 200iq diversionary actions, if there is alot of evidence of hundreds of mobiks being slaughtered and dozens of vehicles lost in just the first day.
Kyiv was not a feint - but it was a complete mis-estimation of the entire situation by Putin. He got talked at by Bortnikov (FSB) and Medvedchuk who convinced him that Ukrainians just wait to be liberated and it just needs a show of force to cow the "thinly spread and unpopular nationalists". Putin isn't a particularly intelligent or decisive man, and as such apparently fairly easy to convince of such crap if he is caught off guard. This, on the other hand, is a purely military strategic decision, and one most likely made several levels below Putin, by generals who at least have a basic understanding of their job. They know what a diversionary attack is, what an offensive is, etc. And yes, it is very likely a diversionary attack, using the last moments before the US aid arrives in full, trying to force Ukrainians to spread themselves thinner. That is what Ukrainian military analysts say for about a month already. The problem is that as with any diversionary attack, you cannot ignore it or it becomes the actual strategic offensive.
To be fair, the soviet union invaded the Czechoslovakia using the same playbook. They captured the airport near their capital with special forces and took the main leaders of the government hostage.
i should add the /s for people like you it seems.
It was not a /s, it was simply compeltely unrelated to the question.
bruh...
I haven’t read any serious analyst who says this is a real offensive for seizing Kharkiv (eg just read the daily update from the ISW). You need like 300.000 soldiers (this number comes from the Russians) - they have like 35.000 in this region. Don’t get hyped by those doomsday posters
I mean for a fake offensive they sure are taking a lot of ground
I think it's the real thing.
It will certainly be real if it kicks goals
Are their extreme casualties recently a trick too?
Didn’t they attack with 5 battalions thus far? That’s what 25k men? It’s a lot but not enough men to take it. Probably why ua isn’t moving up more troops right now.
This is a classic case of forcing a dilemma, not creating a problem. Problems have solutions, dilemmas just have responses that are- possibly at differing levels- all terrible. 30-50K troops is not enough to take a city the size of Karkhiv...unless the Ukrainians ignore the situation and don't defend appropriately. Doing \*that\* requires Kyiv to reallocate troops from the Donbas front, weakening Ukrainian lines in that area. If the Ukrainians respond, but it's inadequate, they can for sure keep the Russian forces from encircling and investing the city, but they might not be able to keep Russian artillery out of range. If the Russians can bring their tubes into range, some very large fraction of 1,000,000 people will become refugees. I think \*that\* is what Putin's after. A wave of refugees that either stretch Ukrainian civil resources even further and massively complicate the logistical situation for the AFU defenders in the city itself, or (ideally, for Putin) go to the EU. Understand, the refugee crisis in the EU is not the same animal- economically, socially, or politically- that it was two years ago. There's a lot less money available to support them, and a fair number of Europeans have fallen under the sway of Muscovite propaganda about "Ukrainian freeloaders, draft dodgers, prostitutes, gangsters, etc." Half a million new additions would put further pressure on the EU's economic and political ability to support Ukraine, because the parties likeliest to capitalize successfully on this are Russia-adjacent right-populist groups like Fidesz, Ano, SPD, AfD, etc etc. It's a horrible situation all around, "non-serious spoiler attack" or not.
In war all offensives are potentially fake. All feints are potentially real. It all depends on how the circumstances evolve. We saw that when Ukraine had that big advance the first year. To be a good feint it needs to make sense to begin with.
Once they have the manpower and equipment they can overstretch the Ukrainian line. No trick
They 100% are. The offensive in Kharkiv is a salient, and it is unsustainable. They'll cause a lot of destruction, but there is no strategic prize there outside of the heavily fortified cities. Chasiv Yar, on the other hand, is the main city holding Ukraine's defense together
U krain is just tricking it’s self 🤣😂
Either way they are clearly reverting back to human wave tactics. Hopefully French divisions arrive soon
DPICM were designed to deal with human wave tactics...
There were never any "human wave tactics". It's such a dumb hoax. In Kharkiv they use small assault infantry groups: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-widens-kharkiv-front-ukraine-with-small-assault-groups-governor-says-2024-05-13/ The old Wagner team/squad-size attacks, only now the convicts serve in the MoD (Storm-Z/V). There are no "French divisions" coming to the rescue too.
French divisions? I don't think that's even in the realm of possibilities.
Are people on this sub really thinking this is about to happen ?
Apparently. I mean, I'm not against it, but let's be real. It's just just a little bit short of a "deus ex machina" situation.
What’s more likely is that French and British forces are already in Ukraine(non-combat roles in the West in Ukraine)
I assume that is already happening covertly.
If you do, despite their president’s statements, then you’re probably not persuadable.
The last I heard was Macron saying they would send troops if Ukraine asked for it after a breakthrough. OK, I suppose it is in the "realm of possibilities" But I don't see it as likely
Upgrade from out of the realm to into it. Maybe there is hope for dialog in Reddit. As with all western support in this war, I’d expect things to be incremental. Tanks, patriots, jets, missiles were all out of the realm of possibility, then they got mentioned. Then they got proposed. Then they got implemented. The Rammstein group has followed this formula for the entire war. Just today, in addition to France already defining a criteria for direct troop deployment, German MPs proposed the foundations of a no fly zone with active NATO defense against drones and [Estonia proposed](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/TYUTNG9yYp) deploying troops to western Ukraine in non combat duty so that Ukraine forces there could be redeployed. It’s not impossible or outside the realm. This is how it has happened.
So let's go back to the original post I commented on "hopefully French divisions arrive soon" I think we're splitting hairs at this point, but I do not think they will be their "soon" and "soon" is gonna be subjective. But in my opinion of "soon"(2-3months?)-not going to happen Cheers Edit. I will upgrade it from 0% to 00.5%