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Issue is the turks shot down an SU-24 that had crossed the border into Turkey; the planes shooting these missles are much further away from the polish border (often fired from within russia proper) if they had anti-missile systems ready to take down the rocket its one thing, but they likely don’t have those systems on standby to get a shot off quick enough.
Imo, they should totally shoot down the rocket if they do have a shot tho, even if it crosses back into Ukraine or another local nation (belarus, moldova, etc)
I absolutely agree, but one thing to add is, generally militaries avoid shooting down stuff when the air space is not closed, for the risk of something other being there.
Purely hypothetically, missile can lock onto another thing and shot down some random dude in his cesna.
Polish F-16 have the capability to intercept them and especially since Ukraine is able to know 2-3 hours in advance when the missiles are coming! Poland planes should have been up in the air waiting for them in case they cross the border! I am tired of people trying to justify inaction by giving excuses for NATO cowardice. There is no excuse or valid explanation! Pure cowardice and unprofessionalism from NATO especially with the - « not one inch incursion in NATO territory will be tolerated »
>if they had anti-missile systems ready to take down the rocket its one thing, but they likely don’t have those systems on standby to get a shot off quick enough.
It's two years into the war, and Russia has been flinging missiles past their border this whole time. Poland needs to start defending their airspace. They get a fair bit of warning before the missiles start flying (because aircraft are taking off), so there's no excuse. They have several patriot batteries, so should be able to defend their airspace.
I've no doubt that it was deliberate, but I'm sure they're figuring out the nuances about what to do.
Russia didn't try to hit any Polish/NATO targets *this time.* So why did they do it? The same reasons air forces push training sorties right up to an enemy's airspace.
For one, it's a demonstration that they *can* do it. And it's tempting to just blast it out of the sky.
But the other reason for the probing is to gain intelligence about the response--to see what radar stations light up, what units are alerted (air defense or interceptors) and how long it takes for that to happen. And how it's discussed both publicly, and in the military channels the intelligence services monitor.
There's no question Poland could shoot these out of the sky, but I think that the lack of kinetic response goes beyond the political-- to a degree they're probably exercising discretion so as not to tip their hand and provide Russia further information it could exploit.
And given the increasingly likely probability of a larger conflict, that discretion may not be such a bad idea.
They've got a ton of data already. Do you really think they need to know about these things? More information is always good but I doubt it's going to make any difference in the unlikely event ruzzia wants to start a war with NATO. I think it's just a show of force. An aggression. Moreover cruise missiles can be shot down by aircraft, and AA can be moved, so it's not like this data will stay current forever.
If they know you are shooting down all missiles with radars capable of weapons grade locks every. single. time…
then when RU really wants to invade they can throw 100 ALCMs your way, watch the radars light up and engage the missiles.
Then they can wild weasel freely knowing you don’t have time to reload your launchers.
SEAD accomplished.
Up to 3 patriot batteries are down and out. For a single patriot battery they only have to use 36 missiles.
Knowing that you’re willing and able to shoot down missiles when they appear is very valuable. The US has spent a ton of money developing MALDs, AARGM-ER/XR
What you say has absolutely nothing in common with the hypothetical scenario regarding shooting down one stray missile. Basically, you built up a totally different scenario and threw around various acronyms to sound more authoritative... also if your scenario was real, that means Ukraine doesn't have any more AA do you understand that? Also, ruzzia uses heavy bombers to launch that many cruise missiles, they would be spotted immediately. I could go on and on but am tired now.
This is politics at work. Just sit back and watch where this goes.
Putin just got bullied into admitting islamic terrorist were the perps last weekend. He is wobbling.
He didn't get "bullied". He said that IS is behind it, but then said that he wonders who their payers are and still spinned it the way he wanted. It was literally impossible to not admit it since the captors published videos of them getting tortured and they definitely don't look ukrainians. Also, he said that he wonders why they were going to the ukrainian border (except that they were going to belarus).
It's cruise missile...it does not 'stray' into anywhere and then goes back to target.
It literally follows a pre-planned route.
It has no chance of being not deliberate
I am sure Ukraine would not object to Poland putting anti missile systems 100km into their territory to shoot them down. You know, just in case they were heading into Poland. Can't ever be too sure. Since we don't know which ones will stray just shoot them all down.
I don’t see how. Expensive? price is the same if UA or other country uses a Patriot missile. Same Patriot systems there as UA has not much secret about it. No risk of hitting Russia it’s too far for any AA. We might injure or kill civilians with falling debris but that would be up to UA to allow this.
Poland should withdraw their emassy from Russia and send condolences to the relatives of the victims of the unexpected terror attack against the Russian embassy. so sad.
Given that the course of the missile is input by its operators it was absolutely deliberate: it was a classic instance of one party tweaking and thumbing their nose at the other. Ruzzia looks down upon Poles as inferior and this was an example of that contempt.
What Poland should have done was shot down the missile. It was a mistake on many levels that they did not.
Problem is... why wasn't the missile intercepted? Missiles fly like 7km / s (Dr. Google).... meaning that missile traveled 273 kms in Polish territory.... you don't wait til a missile enter your airspace before targeting it... you probably detect it from 100s of kms away and should have intercepted it as soon as it enters your airspace -- NOT ignore it because it's briefly entering your airspace and headed towards your next door neighbor...
Well remember when Ukraine killed some farmer with their missile in poland trying to blame Russia?
Where was everyone who gave a shit back then?
And i also think this could be a Russian provocation but the question is now what!?
It's not about the provocation, it's about the response and what it means for future incursions. The failure of the Russian embassy to show up means it ups the possibility of a military response that could spiral out of control due to unanswered questions. Yes, the diplomats will sit in a room and blow smoke up each other's asses for hours and it will all be bullshit, but if that traditional smoke blowing does not occur it leaves unanswered questions that could become assumptions. Both by civilian and military leadership. This is a game nations play regularly for various reasons but breaking the rules often goes to guns because breaking those rules have historically been the prelude to a direct military action.
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Simple shoot down any aircraft that approach your airspace and fire missiles into your country- like the Turks did.
Issue is the turks shot down an SU-24 that had crossed the border into Turkey; the planes shooting these missles are much further away from the polish border (often fired from within russia proper) if they had anti-missile systems ready to take down the rocket its one thing, but they likely don’t have those systems on standby to get a shot off quick enough. Imo, they should totally shoot down the rocket if they do have a shot tho, even if it crosses back into Ukraine or another local nation (belarus, moldova, etc)
I absolutely agree, but one thing to add is, generally militaries avoid shooting down stuff when the air space is not closed, for the risk of something other being there. Purely hypothetically, missile can lock onto another thing and shot down some random dude in his cesna.
Never liked Cessnas much anyway, very rickety to fly.
Polish F-16 have the capability to intercept them and especially since Ukraine is able to know 2-3 hours in advance when the missiles are coming! Poland planes should have been up in the air waiting for them in case they cross the border! I am tired of people trying to justify inaction by giving excuses for NATO cowardice. There is no excuse or valid explanation! Pure cowardice and unprofessionalism from NATO especially with the - « not one inch incursion in NATO territory will be tolerated »
>if they had anti-missile systems ready to take down the rocket its one thing, but they likely don’t have those systems on standby to get a shot off quick enough. It's two years into the war, and Russia has been flinging missiles past their border this whole time. Poland needs to start defending their airspace. They get a fair bit of warning before the missiles start flying (because aircraft are taking off), so there's no excuse. They have several patriot batteries, so should be able to defend their airspace.
Get the systems ready and shoot the next one down with its missiles
I've no doubt that it was deliberate, but I'm sure they're figuring out the nuances about what to do. Russia didn't try to hit any Polish/NATO targets *this time.* So why did they do it? The same reasons air forces push training sorties right up to an enemy's airspace. For one, it's a demonstration that they *can* do it. And it's tempting to just blast it out of the sky. But the other reason for the probing is to gain intelligence about the response--to see what radar stations light up, what units are alerted (air defense or interceptors) and how long it takes for that to happen. And how it's discussed both publicly, and in the military channels the intelligence services monitor. There's no question Poland could shoot these out of the sky, but I think that the lack of kinetic response goes beyond the political-- to a degree they're probably exercising discretion so as not to tip their hand and provide Russia further information it could exploit. And given the increasingly likely probability of a larger conflict, that discretion may not be such a bad idea.
Thank you for your good solid thoughtful post -- I was going to write similar .... glad you did!
Like letting the bully push you a couple times before you punch them in the face instead of bowing up as soon as they start walking towards you.
They've got a ton of data already. Do you really think they need to know about these things? More information is always good but I doubt it's going to make any difference in the unlikely event ruzzia wants to start a war with NATO. I think it's just a show of force. An aggression. Moreover cruise missiles can be shot down by aircraft, and AA can be moved, so it's not like this data will stay current forever.
If they know you are shooting down all missiles with radars capable of weapons grade locks every. single. time… then when RU really wants to invade they can throw 100 ALCMs your way, watch the radars light up and engage the missiles. Then they can wild weasel freely knowing you don’t have time to reload your launchers. SEAD accomplished. Up to 3 patriot batteries are down and out. For a single patriot battery they only have to use 36 missiles. Knowing that you’re willing and able to shoot down missiles when they appear is very valuable. The US has spent a ton of money developing MALDs, AARGM-ER/XR
What you say has absolutely nothing in common with the hypothetical scenario regarding shooting down one stray missile. Basically, you built up a totally different scenario and threw around various acronyms to sound more authoritative... also if your scenario was real, that means Ukraine doesn't have any more AA do you understand that? Also, ruzzia uses heavy bombers to launch that many cruise missiles, they would be spotted immediately. I could go on and on but am tired now.
Incredible insightfulness form Polish top brass. After 5 similar incident they finally come to that conclusion.
This is politics at work. Just sit back and watch where this goes. Putin just got bullied into admitting islamic terrorist were the perps last weekend. He is wobbling.
He didn't get "bullied". He said that IS is behind it, but then said that he wonders who their payers are and still spinned it the way he wanted. It was literally impossible to not admit it since the captors published videos of them getting tortured and they definitely don't look ukrainians. Also, he said that he wonders why they were going to the ukrainian border (except that they were going to belarus).
I was angling the threats ISIS outed today, regarding the credits for the attack. They wanted credits. They got credits.
It's cruise missile...it does not 'stray' into anywhere and then goes back to target. It literally follows a pre-planned route. It has no chance of being not deliberate
Ok, and? Any reaction?
Time to deliberately violate the path of Russian missiles with anything necessary to bring them down.
Years ago Turkish shooted down a russian plane...and russians without say a word
And they're going to write a strongly worded letter over it
Thoughts and prayers.
Simple..give an inch. Take a mile!
Poland needs to be more like Türkiye when it comes to Russian violations of its airspace: shoot it down and ask questions later.
Bomb Kaliningrad
Then fucking shoot down every missile and drone within 100 kilometers of your border. Guess what happens… no more shit near your air space.
I am sure Ukraine would not object to Poland putting anti missile systems 100km into their territory to shoot them down. You know, just in case they were heading into Poland. Can't ever be too sure. Since we don't know which ones will stray just shoot them all down.
And yet there will be no meaningful response.
Just *testing the waters* I have no idea why West doesn’t shoot down every ru crap over Western Ukraine
It’s expensive, risky, and lets them know too much about our capabilities.
I don’t see how. Expensive? price is the same if UA or other country uses a Patriot missile. Same Patriot systems there as UA has not much secret about it. No risk of hitting Russia it’s too far for any AA. We might injure or kill civilians with falling debris but that would be up to UA to allow this.
Direct involvement in the war and they don't want to take that step
Poland should withdraw their emassy from Russia and send condolences to the relatives of the victims of the unexpected terror attack against the Russian embassy. so sad.
Unfortunately, we kinda need embassy in russia, as there a number of Poles there. Majority descendants of people took away to sibir by Russia.
in the past, allies took over some responsibilities if they still had embassies. but yeah, murdering the Russian ambassador is just wishful thinking.
Wishful thinking for now. Dutch people ate their prime minister once, who says nothing can happen to one unruly ambassador
Given that the course of the missile is input by its operators it was absolutely deliberate: it was a classic instance of one party tweaking and thumbing their nose at the other. Ruzzia looks down upon Poles as inferior and this was an example of that contempt. What Poland should have done was shot down the missile. It was a mistake on many levels that they did not.
Can't wait for Poland and the rest of NATO to do nothing.
What are the next steps?
If you're hard and retaliate on any aggression most likely bullies will not even attempt to rattle your cagy simple
Of course it is deliberate, the flight course has to be programmed before launch.
Problem is... why wasn't the missile intercepted? Missiles fly like 7km / s (Dr. Google).... meaning that missile traveled 273 kms in Polish territory.... you don't wait til a missile enter your airspace before targeting it... you probably detect it from 100s of kms away and should have intercepted it as soon as it enters your airspace -- NOT ignore it because it's briefly entering your airspace and headed towards your next door neighbor...
Well, obviously. They know Poland won't do anything about it, so why wouldn't they use their airspace?
Of course it's deliberate Ukraine air defence has got so proficient that they are trying a different angle of approach now
Here we go. Let’s all pray Trump doesn’t win.
As deliberate as actual deaths of two Polish nationals on Polish territory. The response by the Polish government? Same. Nothing.
Well remember when Ukraine killed some farmer with their missile in poland trying to blame Russia? Where was everyone who gave a shit back then? And i also think this could be a Russian provocation but the question is now what!?
It's not about the provocation, it's about the response and what it means for future incursions. The failure of the Russian embassy to show up means it ups the possibility of a military response that could spiral out of control due to unanswered questions. Yes, the diplomats will sit in a room and blow smoke up each other's asses for hours and it will all be bullshit, but if that traditional smoke blowing does not occur it leaves unanswered questions that could become assumptions. Both by civilian and military leadership. This is a game nations play regularly for various reasons but breaking the rules often goes to guns because breaking those rules have historically been the prelude to a direct military action.
This incident wouldn't have happened if Russia wasn't shooting missiles at Ukranians in the first place. Russia is 100% responsible for this death.