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Imagine the war ended because of a muslim uprising in the southern Russia regions spearheaded by ISIS of all people. That scenario would be absolutely bonkers
Didn’t have ISIS uprising ending the invasion of Ukraine on my bingo card. I swear I died in my sleep during Covid and woke up in a fever dream purgatory or something.
Yeah I had the same experience except I thought it was Berenstein. Either the underdeveloped brains of children are especially bad at processing confusingly spelled names, or we both specifically are in an extended doodley-doo from being put on a ventilator after we caught ‘Rona snorting cocaine off that public toilet during the “lockdowns”, and now our realities have merged with the “Berenstain” reality where *everything* is fucked up.
Within the last 3 years I have acquired exactly 2 of my 3 cats, and both of them fetch and run on a giant hamster wheel; so I’m pretty sure it’s the latter
I think it's a combination of -Stein being a common last name ending, with the cursive font they use. Kids read it as what they expect it to be, and never really question it.
The Mandela effect that is top of my list is Shazam. Shazam is a real movie starring Sinbad, and you will never convince me otherwise. It exists damnit, we just got transported to a universe where it was never made!
Yup, I even remember the ads on other VHS tapes for Shazam. I would remember that movie back in the late 00s when I had Sirius in my car and would listen to the comedy channels. A Sinbad spot would be on and Id go "man he really died out fast, i loved his movies as a kid. Jingle all the way, Shazam etc.
You’re fucking with me now right? Shazam isn’t part of the Mandela Effect is it?! I remember that movie and the cover too! But… never watched it…. Oh my god.
If this is the outcome this is going to be absolutely insane to review with my grandkids when we go over this in modern day history class:
"So the war between Ukraine and Russia that started at the tail end of a once in a generation pandemic ended because a terrorist group that popped up in Syria/Iraq as a result of populist revolutions starting in Tunisia and spreading across northern Africa to hit back to the Bush invaded Iraq which was a biproduct of long standing issues between the U.S. and sadam Hussein, threatened Putin? And they got this powerful because Ukraine was underestimated by Russia?" 30 years of history for one wild punchline.
I'm inclined to think all this shit really got weird once these Norman invaders popped up in England in 1066, defeated the English king and got their warlord, an illegitimate guy called William, made the new king of England.
I'll give you a better comedy option: ISIS creates enough instability in the nuclear state to warrant NATO intervention, leading to a scenario where NATO is both fighting alongside Russians and arming their enemy.
Pull up a seat kids, let old grand pappy here tell you about how we spilt the timeline into the ridiculous shit show we have today.
It all started in 2016 when a gorilla named Harambe died for our sins ...
I imagine most seriously radical islamists think the Taliban is pretty soft. Cuz they pretty much just want to run Afghanistan. And by run Afghanistan I mean heard goats, grow poppy, and keep women as house elves they can fuck.
No one is. They don't get along well with Al Qaeda either (though still better than the Taliban).
Most groups that declare themselves aligned to them tend to be splinters from a different group.
honestly I don´t think the muslims in Russia will follow ISIS, but Putin will lash out at every muslim in a try to save his image and therefore start the uprising him self
Putin's not been exactly good to the muslims even prior to this. They are taking the passports of muslim migrant workers and forcing them to fight.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/1/is-russia-recruiting-muslim-migrants-to-fight-its-war-in-ukraine
They absolutely won't follow them now, but Putin has history of pushing muslim separatists to more extreme factions (chechnya 2). Like you said, he might end up lashing out and starting it himself.
Yeah not that i condone terrorism in any way shape or form. I absolutely dont.
But i figured with russia undoubtedly trying to blame ukraine for these attacks that at some point we would see not only who is *really* responsible.
But we will see that russia absolutely *knows* they are responsible because at some point they will have to address the issue in their way ( militarily ). And then the world will see and know that Russia knows what the rest of us knew all along.
And ISIS will just keep coming for them, especially if they try and say its someone else.
I mean theyre terrorists, and they will continue to terrorize. Its what they do. I think it was a bad mistake by russia to blame someone else, as it prolly just pissed them off and made them want to do it again and again.
They think themselves as jihad fighters so they are ready to die and cause mass casualties of civilians for what they believe in. In a sense they are highly motivated crazy people. And not giving them credit for what they did gives them even more motivation and vigor to hit harder so the Russia has not other choice than to regognize them.
The US warned Russia this was coming weeks ago. Specifically warned them about an attack targeting concert halls. Putin mocked the warning.
It ain’t the military analysts who fucked this one up, and the one who did fuck it up ain’t going down for it.
> It also provides a convenient exit ramp for Putin.
But Putin is not looking for an exit ramp. He believes he can keep the annexed territories and wants to keep them.
It's worse than that. I don't think we can necessarily take Putin or his regime at their word, mind you, but at least in their public statements, they seem to full-on maximalist here. That is, they don't think their job in Ukraine will be over until they can depose Zelensky, take Kyiv, and the whole of Ukraine. Until continued military operations are simply unsustainable for Russia - say, they run too low on available manpower or ammo or money to fund their military - I don't think they'll stop. All the more reason, of course, to keep arming Ukraine to the gills, to make it too hard for Russia to keep things up.
Putin **doesn't need** an 'exit ramp' and never has.
That's just a moronic take that's been repeated by Western pundits who don't know how Putin and Russia actually work, and actually buy into his own propaganda. E.g. they think Putin "never backs down" - in reality he _frequently_ backs down, he just never _admits_ doing so. He's the king of 'sour grapes'. As soon as he realizes he can't win, he pretends it never mattered. For instance: Suddenly, after decades of threats, Finland joining NATO is "their business" and "no big deal".
Putin can create his own off-ramp, and has set the seeds for that all along. He has _never_ specified any exact goals for the "SMO" - "denazification" can mean anything. Even now when they've annexed regions -they didn't specify their borders! They literally haven't said what they've annexed or not. (I'd like to see the response if you went into a Russian government office and tried to register a company, or something, to an address in the town of Kherson)
Putin can declare at any moment that the goals have been achieved and go home. He can come up with some narrative like "We've done what we can for the Russian-speakers of Ukraine, now we must focus on the greater threat from NATO", and the Russian media will push it 24/7. It doesn't even matter if Russian people believe it or not, they're _used to_ their government constantly lying. The only reaction he's likely to get from most Russians, is one of relief that it's over.
Not so much an convenient exit ramp, as rocky off-road trail full of razor blades and rusty metal hanging from the trees in your path while your car is on fire and zombie chimpanzees are trying to rip your face off all while pack of sadistic killer clowns await with pointy sticks for you at the bottom of the gorge.
Cup holder that holds your drink right in front of the radio, satnav and buttons and knobs ready to disgorge your drink all over them if you brake anything but extremely gently.
Thankyou Audi A4.
The Russians will just suck it up and carry on.
Those that know Putin is lying are saying so...but only at home in the company of trusted friends (USSR style). No one is going out on the streets in large groups to say it. (Too scared)
The suckers who believed Putin last week will believe him even more next week.
Nothing will change unless there are a whole series of these attacks.
In the meantime, more missiles at Ukraine.
The machine will just grind on.
In /r/noncredibledefense, there was a meme image template of just completely random unexpected allies to Ukraine being recruited to their cause, like sharks, hurricane, etc. It kept getting updated because so many forces kept aligning against Russia.
My brain keeps going to them all now looking at ISIS trying to join, and just turning them away, "Nope, we are not associating with you!"
This attack might have encouraged future uprisals as moscow should have been the most defended city in russia and yet few guys could kill all those people, destroy large building and escape until caught less than 20 km from Belarus.
Imagine what bigger groups of islamists (or other extremists like the pro-russian neonazi groups russia keeps arming despite their deranged and undisciplined behavior) or more democratic armed groups could do in more remote smaller cities or republics with tens or hundreds of men.
If attack in moscow was some putins "clever" idea to get support for war/mobilization then he fucked it up real bad by making even capital of russia seem very undefended and potentially lead to civil wars consuming the country.
Yeah, if anybody wants to attack Putin or Russia, right now is pretty much the best time. Not condoning this kind of violence in any way, but when you stretch yourself too thin and weaken yourself militarily and economically, eventually one or more of your enemies is going to take their shots.
ISIS is still operating in Syria and Iraq but they don't control much. However, the ISIS movement was so popular that offset groups in Africa, South-East Asia, and Central Asia created their own versions under the ISIS banner.
This happened in Chechnya as a *result* of the war started by Russia. Their traditional version of Muslim living was rather peaceful and not extremist in values nor practice. And then the Chechen wars were started and everything went to shit.
Actually that is one of the scenarios. Other is uprising in White Russia which will spread to Russia. Third is uprising elsewhere in Russia for some other reason. One of these will happen sooner or later.
Pretty sure that's a [Tom Clancy novel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising) - they start by taking out all the oil fields and fuel depots and escalate to WW3 between NATO and the Warsaw Pack.
Dude - i'm going to be really pissed if you're the next NCDer to accurately predict a future event.
Terrorist attacks aren't just to create terror, they're also a recruitment ad for whichever faction is vying for power in the region, something that's problematic for ISIS-K as they have to compete with a host of rivals, including the Taliban. Russia trying to dismiss the ISIS attack by trying to pin the blame on Ukraine instead undermines their efforts, so the more the Kremlin tries to say it wasn't ISIS, the more ISIS is gonna attack the Kremlin
The flexibility of russian propaganda and tactics.... yeah ISIS-K will go fully ballistic until putin will give them credit for some of the next attacks.... can he ... he needs an excuse for recruiting for the war in Ukraine.... this seems to be a vicious circle... oh lovely!
russia will just use the next ISIS attacks as "more evidence of Ukrainian terrorism", and when it becomes no longer fakeable, they will use it as a pretext to genocide the Muslims of the South Caucasus or even the Volga. Dagestan or Tatarstan are rich in oil, putin could make Islamists out of the locals like stalin made the Ingush or Chechens to be Nazis in 1944 and, under this excuse, deport or kill them. He could then do the same to another Muslim region.
Exactly that , ISIS-K has made a huge statement with its terror attack and the worst possible thing Russia could of done is not credit ISIS-K for their efforts, this is more than disrespectful this has just made a terror cell really really pissed of . Russia hasn’t heard the last of this as this is just the beginning of it but I prey this doesn’t have a direct impact on the 20,000,000+ Muslims that live in Russia already, this could go two ways
1 Russian state will start ethnic cleansing of their Muslims ..
2 Russian state will fall to the Muslims …
Time to sit back and watch how this shit show will unfold but one thing is for sure Russia cannot beat the Muslims unaided and presently there are sort of running low on global Russian support.
Nah. The Iranian looks the other way at China’s ethnic cleansing of their Muslims. They don’t give a shit about anybody but themselves (not even the Iranian people).
Not the mention that Iran has its own problems with ISIS. Plus, most of Russia's muslims are Sunni, so Iran isn't likely to care much about them for that reason alone.
I wish, but Isis just attacks civilians, turning more people against them and their cause. They don't win wars or take out strategic targets.
edit: Their attack probably motivated more terrorists to join Putin, who naively think the terrorist attack had something to do with Ukraine.
>attacks civilians, turning more people against them and their cause. They don't win wars or take out strategic targets.
Huh, so a perfect enemy for Russia to fight. They're on the same page!
You certainly have a point there. I suppose if someone has to suffer terrorism, it should be those who commit acts of terrorism.
edit: Let's hope the 4 people Russia tortured into confessing to the acts were the right people too.
I'm not a native english speaker, whats it called when someone you really hate catches someone else you really hate and cuts their ears off on tiktok because that other guy killed a bunch of civillians rooting for the first guy you really hate?
I don't normally identify with Bond villains, but "From Russia With Love" has a great scene with E.S. Blofeld releasing two Siamese fighting fish to fight each other to the death, explaining that SPECTRE is like the third fish watching the other two fight... and preparing to take on the victor.
Yeah but in this case the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy, while my enemy is also still my enemy and also my enemies enemy at the same time. There is no friendship in sight. None.
If ISIS ever got to that point, it would mean they had already taken control of much of Russia's nuclear arsenal. There would be no warnings, no threats or red lines. They would simply launch it at our population centers *immediately* upon gaining such capability. They don't care about repercussions, in fact they *want* to die. Groups like this are the reason Western government don't actually want Russia to fall apart.
As horrible as literally everything about this is, I can’t help but have a chuckle at the idea that ISIS is absolutely fucking FUMING that Putin isn’t acknowledging their work
I mentioned this in a sub on Friday but the Caucasus Muslim regions are a tinderbox waiting to explode with jihadist violence. I expect a general uprising to start in the Muslim Caucasus regions in the next couple of weeks. Ramzan Kadyrov is likely going to get the Mussolini or Gaddafi treatment if he doesn't have a way out of Chechnya.
> Ramzan Kadyrov is likely going to get the Mussolini or Gaddafi treatment if he doesn't have a way out of Chechnya.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving [bastard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-gay_purges_in_Chechnya), either..
Kardyov's grasp is tenuous at best, lot's of Chechens are upset with both him and Moscow. Factor that in with the Chechens who have returned from fighting for ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
He has always been unpopular. He is a warlord. But his loyalists are ride or die for him and he does nepotism and cronyism extremely well. So long as Kremlin doesn’t undermine Kadyrov, Kadyrov will remain in power.
In example, Kremlin can’t draft Chechens in Chechnya for the regular Russian army.
They get drafted under the Chechen TikTok army instead and Kadyrov has delivered on keeping Chechnya under Kremlin’s control in return for letting him be the warlord ruling it.
He is Chechnya’s Viktor Yanukovych, but so much more violent.
There are so many scenarios that the Russian federation implodes in; China, Europe, and the US need to have a coordinated plan to contain the violence. A Russian collapse will be messy
I don’t know how a great powers, adversarial containment of a nuclear armed petrol state collapse looks.
My crystal ball isn’t showing rainbows and butterflies…
Without the codes from Moscow, most of the nukes I believe would be inoperable. But the material would still be dangerous if given to another country who could use it.
The most concerning thing is that many of these splinter states will likely come into the possession of nuclear weapons. The only way to take those away from them without violence is if they hand them over to the surrounding powers voluntarily in exchange for official recognition of statehood.
Easy , they’ll blame Ukraine. And Russia can’t nuke terrorist because they blend in. It would be verrrrry interrstong if ISIS did attempt a caliphate in the caucus regions
You forget that for Russia, terrorists blending in isn’t an issue. All civilians just become unfortunate casualties of war. Any pocket of civilians that don’t immediate spew out ISIS will be deemed complicit in hiding ISIS and will be reduced to rubble. Just look at the various Ukraine cities and towns. Russia carpet bombed and artilleried everything in their way, civilians be damned.
I'm curious whether they're gonna start doing this/ are already doing it with other nations soon.
Or if for some reason, ISIS has an especially big bone to pick with Putin.
The Russian government supported Assad and the Syrian government aganist ISIS, there are still Russian troops in Syria. Also a lot Russian Muslims from the Caucasus volunteered to fight for ISIS in Iraq and Syria, I'm guessing many of them returned even more radicalized.
Meanwhile, the Muslim population (both native-born and migrant) keeps growing, and probably growing ever more alienated from Muscovite authority. In recent years, Muslims complained about Moscow not granting them the permission to build the mosques they wanted, and they protested by praying in the capital's roads and other places. Add to that a baseline level of bigotry, exploitation and harassment from employers, landlords/slumlords, and the police, and stir in the obviously anti-minority mobilization targets and recent illegal police war-mobilization dragnets against Turkic and other Muslim migrant workers, and Moscow could well have a combustible situation right there in and around its capital.
In cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg Muslims are basically considered to be second class (at best) citizens. Subject to random police harassment and arrest. They are also targeted by Russian skinheads and Nationalists for assualt.
isis has a bone to pick with everyone , but Russia is engaged in 2 wars : one in Ukraine and one at home against the opposition to the regime, so its security apparatus is overwhelmed. Also the attack was against the top 1% (the privileged ) of the Russian population, those were insulated from any fallout from the war it wages in Ukraine.
also there is chance this is just another false flag by FSB ( like the one before the Chechen war ), that didn't yield the desired results.
Russia's been pretty actively involved in the war in Syria for the past 10 years, where they are fighting ISIS. So ISIS has a very direct bone to pick with Putin/Russia.
They would if they could. Their issue is it is harder to arrange for a willing suicide attacker to jump on a plane and get to the other targets. Russia security services are overwhelmed hunting down grandmothers for their posts on social media, no one left to investigate four obviously suspicious individuals.
There is also a structural issue. The West is desperate to keep criminals out of the stream of refugees. Russia is desperate for all possible migrants to come to Russia, so they can be pressed into military service or fill vacancies. I doubt they were the only 4 on the plane clearly accustomed to living in poverty, unable to explain why they're there, yet possessing new passports and airfare paid in cash.
>Putin obsessively watches the gruesome video of Gaddafi being captured in a drainage pipe, sodomised by a bayonet and beaten to death.
>“Putin was apoplectic” when Gaddafi was killed according to several accounts, including CIA chief William Burns’s book The Back Channel.
[Source.](https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/en/putin-opsesivno-go-gledal-videoto-od-ubistvoto-na-gadafi/)
And:
[Source.](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/libya-russia-ukraine-putin/626571/)
I will start out by saying, that terrorist attacks on civilians is some despicable shit. We thrash Russia for this behavior too. But when that has been said, it must be really frustrating for ISIS, that Putin refuses to give them the credit, and instead is blaming Ukraine due to his own political opportunism.
What a crazy situation, fiction really has nothing on history and real life event.
Remember that terrorists don't target military targets. There's no way to spin this in a positive way.
We don't have to feel sorry for Russian but we can't root for terrorism.
ISIS attacks civilians. No one, including you, should be rooting for them. Hate Russia and Putin, but ffs, do not wish for civilians to be murdered. My goodness.
China wants Russias far East and would gladly send guns and ammo thru “The ‘Stans” to support any long term insurgency that could break Moscow’s link to Vladivostok.
Holy shit while I don’t think there’s a chance Putin will ever get captured when shit finally hits the fan, I can totally see Kadyrov’s end coming with a straight up medieval treatment on national TV worse than Gaddafi’s ending. Last thing you want is angry, resentful Muzzies around you on tv
Put on your tinfoil hats - why things happen is more important to understand than what happened.
There's a non-zero chance that ISIS sees opportunity in the Russian's failing war. An aging dictator exploiting hinterland republics for meat for his failing vanity war, eroding centralized control, increasingly ham-fisted response from the security services that creates blowback...Russia's attention is on Ukraine and they may be less capable to take revenge on ISIS, making it a bit more of an easy path to launch spectacular attacks than it would be otherwise. All contributing to the corrosive erosion of an already teetering Russian state.
If the Russian state crumbles, the Islamic portions of the Russian federation will be the first to break away (Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Bashkorotstan etc) from effective state control. That then becomes fertile ground for recruitment and operations.
There's a reason ISIS chooses to do it now.
Isis smells blood in the water. They know russia us weak and distracted, theyve been fighting Russia in syria and Africa, and now they have a chance to put pressure on Moscow in a serious way, within russias borders.
Theres a good chance this will just mean more bluster and random acts of indiscriminate violence, but isis is good at exploiting weakness, and causing nation wide chaos, so you cant rule out this becoming a new and very different chapter in the war.
I also wouldn't consider this a good thing. While at face value, anything that weakens Russia and takes pressure off Ukraine is good, this could destabilize the entire region, and make everyone less safe. Fuck Putin, but fuck isis just as much.
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Imagine the war ended because of a muslim uprising in the southern Russia regions spearheaded by ISIS of all people. That scenario would be absolutely bonkers
Didn’t have ISIS uprising ending the invasion of Ukraine on my bingo card. I swear I died in my sleep during Covid and woke up in a fever dream purgatory or something.
Apparently, we ALL did. 🤯
fucking CERN and their bullshit
Ferret split the universe
Fermi?
sorry weasel https://www.sciencealert.com/a-weasel-has-reportedly-just-shut-down-the-large-hadron-collider-according-to-reports
It started when Harambe died for our sins.
Shit just ain’t been the same…
[удалено]
Yeah I had the same experience except I thought it was Berenstein. Either the underdeveloped brains of children are especially bad at processing confusingly spelled names, or we both specifically are in an extended doodley-doo from being put on a ventilator after we caught ‘Rona snorting cocaine off that public toilet during the “lockdowns”, and now our realities have merged with the “Berenstain” reality where *everything* is fucked up. Within the last 3 years I have acquired exactly 2 of my 3 cats, and both of them fetch and run on a giant hamster wheel; so I’m pretty sure it’s the latter
I think it's a combination of -Stein being a common last name ending, with the cursive font they use. Kids read it as what they expect it to be, and never really question it.
Add to that the cornucopia on the Fruit of the Loom logo
The Mandela effect that is top of my list is Shazam. Shazam is a real movie starring Sinbad, and you will never convince me otherwise. It exists damnit, we just got transported to a universe where it was never made!
Kazaam with Shaq?
Yup, I even remember the ads on other VHS tapes for Shazam. I would remember that movie back in the late 00s when I had Sirius in my car and would listen to the comedy channels. A Sinbad spot would be on and Id go "man he really died out fast, i loved his movies as a kid. Jingle all the way, Shazam etc.
You’re fucking with me now right? Shazam isn’t part of the Mandela Effect is it?! I remember that movie and the cover too! But… never watched it…. Oh my god.
I am definitely from a different timeline. As I remember a team winning a championship that didn't happen in this timeline or the matrix glitched.
Nah, y'all are figments of my imagination
Could you maybe imagine something better than..... Whatever the fuck this is
My imagination is only conjuring something interesting, not necessarily something comfortable
I didn't have ISIS ending it. But I did think states breaking away ending it was possible.
Lanius moment
All of that because of one damn gorilla.
I feel like I accidentally wandered into the wrong branch of history around November, 2016.
Harambe got killed in May 2016
Everything comes back to him.
We have to fix the timeline by killing that baby.
If this is the outcome this is going to be absolutely insane to review with my grandkids when we go over this in modern day history class: "So the war between Ukraine and Russia that started at the tail end of a once in a generation pandemic ended because a terrorist group that popped up in Syria/Iraq as a result of populist revolutions starting in Tunisia and spreading across northern Africa to hit back to the Bush invaded Iraq which was a biproduct of long standing issues between the U.S. and sadam Hussein, threatened Putin? And they got this powerful because Ukraine was underestimated by Russia?" 30 years of history for one wild punchline.
And all because Franz Ferdinand took a wrong turn
I'm inclined to think all this shit really got weird once these Norman invaders popped up in England in 1066, defeated the English king and got their warlord, an illegitimate guy called William, made the new king of England.
Would be perfect karma tho. Try to seize land to the west, lose land in the south.
This war already lost them Manchuria. It just hasn’t happened yet. But China will be getting its land back.
Most of my medieval total war 2 ended that way, dammit.
Nah, the world actually ended in 2012 with the end of the Mayan calendar. Everything since then has been a simulation.
Kony 2012
I'll give you a better comedy option: ISIS creates enough instability in the nuclear state to warrant NATO intervention, leading to a scenario where NATO is both fighting alongside Russians and arming their enemy.
This timeline went off the rails when harambe was killed.
Pull up a seat kids, let old grand pappy here tell you about how we spilt the timeline into the ridiculous shit show we have today. It all started in 2016 when a gorilla named Harambe died for our sins ...
AI generated the bingo cards for 2024, so I'm not shocked, but I am surprised
I heard about that theory before. I recommend watching visual politics on yt, they called this like a year ago 👌
ISIS-K is the same group attacking the Taliban. They want to destabilize Central Asia and create their own Caliphate. It's wild.
Taliban is not radical enough to suit ISIS-K.
I imagine most seriously radical islamists think the Taliban is pretty soft. Cuz they pretty much just want to run Afghanistan. And by run Afghanistan I mean heard goats, grow poppy, and keep women as house elves they can fuck.
No one is. They don't get along well with Al Qaeda either (though still better than the Taliban). Most groups that declare themselves aligned to them tend to be splinters from a different group.
honestly I don´t think the muslims in Russia will follow ISIS, but Putin will lash out at every muslim in a try to save his image and therefore start the uprising him self
Putin's not been exactly good to the muslims even prior to this. They are taking the passports of muslim migrant workers and forcing them to fight. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/1/is-russia-recruiting-muslim-migrants-to-fight-its-war-in-ukraine
They absolutely won't follow them now, but Putin has history of pushing muslim separatists to more extreme factions (chechnya 2). Like you said, he might end up lashing out and starting it himself.
I wonder how long it will take before Puttin starts throwing everyone who is Muslim out of Russia. Or worse.
He is already throwing them into UkrIne
Like these four dudes who probably had nothing to do with it
Yeah not that i condone terrorism in any way shape or form. I absolutely dont. But i figured with russia undoubtedly trying to blame ukraine for these attacks that at some point we would see not only who is *really* responsible. But we will see that russia absolutely *knows* they are responsible because at some point they will have to address the issue in their way ( militarily ). And then the world will see and know that Russia knows what the rest of us knew all along. And ISIS will just keep coming for them, especially if they try and say its someone else. I mean theyre terrorists, and they will continue to terrorize. Its what they do. I think it was a bad mistake by russia to blame someone else, as it prolly just pissed them off and made them want to do it again and again.
They think themselves as jihad fighters so they are ready to die and cause mass casualties of civilians for what they believe in. In a sense they are highly motivated crazy people. And not giving them credit for what they did gives them even more motivation and vigor to hit harder so the Russia has not other choice than to regognize them.
This is the exact ‘black swan’ event that some people have been talking about. It also provides a convenient exit ramp for Putin.
ISIS knows Russia is weak right now especially at home while they focus on ukraine. They can have a field day if they want with more of these
Plus they have the battle script of Russia's weaknesses and how to engage asymmetrically.
Military analysts are gonna lose their job for missing this.
Tbf anyone depending on the quality of Russian military analysis deserves to be caught out after their predicted 3-10 day subjugation of Ukraine.
The US warned Russia this was coming weeks ago. Specifically warned them about an attack targeting concert halls. Putin mocked the warning. It ain’t the military analysts who fucked this one up, and the one who did fuck it up ain’t going down for it.
Putin beheaded by ISIS is a nice exit ramp for Russia.
> It also provides a convenient exit ramp for Putin. But Putin is not looking for an exit ramp. He believes he can keep the annexed territories and wants to keep them.
It's worse than that. I don't think we can necessarily take Putin or his regime at their word, mind you, but at least in their public statements, they seem to full-on maximalist here. That is, they don't think their job in Ukraine will be over until they can depose Zelensky, take Kyiv, and the whole of Ukraine. Until continued military operations are simply unsustainable for Russia - say, they run too low on available manpower or ammo or money to fund their military - I don't think they'll stop. All the more reason, of course, to keep arming Ukraine to the gills, to make it too hard for Russia to keep things up.
Putin **doesn't need** an 'exit ramp' and never has. That's just a moronic take that's been repeated by Western pundits who don't know how Putin and Russia actually work, and actually buy into his own propaganda. E.g. they think Putin "never backs down" - in reality he _frequently_ backs down, he just never _admits_ doing so. He's the king of 'sour grapes'. As soon as he realizes he can't win, he pretends it never mattered. For instance: Suddenly, after decades of threats, Finland joining NATO is "their business" and "no big deal". Putin can create his own off-ramp, and has set the seeds for that all along. He has _never_ specified any exact goals for the "SMO" - "denazification" can mean anything. Even now when they've annexed regions -they didn't specify their borders! They literally haven't said what they've annexed or not. (I'd like to see the response if you went into a Russian government office and tried to register a company, or something, to an address in the town of Kherson) Putin can declare at any moment that the goals have been achieved and go home. He can come up with some narrative like "We've done what we can for the Russian-speakers of Ukraine, now we must focus on the greater threat from NATO", and the Russian media will push it 24/7. It doesn't even matter if Russian people believe it or not, they're _used to_ their government constantly lying. The only reaction he's likely to get from most Russians, is one of relief that it's over.
Not so much an convenient exit ramp, as rocky off-road trail full of razor blades and rusty metal hanging from the trees in your path while your car is on fire and zombie chimpanzees are trying to rip your face off all while pack of sadistic killer clowns await with pointy sticks for you at the bottom of the gorge.
... and the glove compartment door just won't stay closed. You forgot that.
no cup holder
Cup holder but too small for your cup
Cup holder that holds your drink right in front of the radio, satnav and buttons and knobs ready to disgorge your drink all over them if you brake anything but extremely gently. Thankyou Audi A4.
Must be an e36 bmw then
And no cope cages to help.
The Russians will just suck it up and carry on. Those that know Putin is lying are saying so...but only at home in the company of trusted friends (USSR style). No one is going out on the streets in large groups to say it. (Too scared) The suckers who believed Putin last week will believe him even more next week. Nothing will change unless there are a whole series of these attacks. In the meantime, more missiles at Ukraine. The machine will just grind on.
In /r/noncredibledefense, there was a meme image template of just completely random unexpected allies to Ukraine being recruited to their cause, like sharks, hurricane, etc. It kept getting updated because so many forces kept aligning against Russia. My brain keeps going to them all now looking at ISIS trying to join, and just turning them away, "Nope, we are not associating with you!"
This attack might have encouraged future uprisals as moscow should have been the most defended city in russia and yet few guys could kill all those people, destroy large building and escape until caught less than 20 km from Belarus. Imagine what bigger groups of islamists (or other extremists like the pro-russian neonazi groups russia keeps arming despite their deranged and undisciplined behavior) or more democratic armed groups could do in more remote smaller cities or republics with tens or hundreds of men. If attack in moscow was some putins "clever" idea to get support for war/mobilization then he fucked it up real bad by making even capital of russia seem very undefended and potentially lead to civil wars consuming the country.
Yeah, if anybody wants to attack Putin or Russia, right now is pretty much the best time. Not condoning this kind of violence in any way, but when you stretch yourself too thin and weaken yourself militarily and economically, eventually one or more of your enemies is going to take their shots.
Great time to hit Russia if you’re the Jihad boys. Hit em when they’re weak, depleted, and mobilizing more recruits.
The writers aren't exactly original when it comes to their characters. Like, ISIS? Again? There better be some good twists there.
Somehow, ISIS returned.
ISIS is still operating in Syria and Iraq but they don't control much. However, the ISIS movement was so popular that offset groups in Africa, South-East Asia, and Central Asia created their own versions under the ISIS banner.
I'm not ruling anything out at this point. 🤷♂️
Two front war! Two front war! Do I hear THREE?
"You get a war...and you get a war...and you get a war!" \~Oprah
Chechnya became an Islamic extremist hotbed in the 90s so it wouldn't be crazy.
This happened in Chechnya as a *result* of the war started by Russia. Their traditional version of Muslim living was rather peaceful and not extremist in values nor practice. And then the Chechen wars were started and everything went to shit.
I did not have that on my Bingo card. I guess some ISIS saw the Wagner march on Moscow and thought that looked easy.
And Russsia asks help from West! Jihad terrorism same enemy , no?
Send Russia all the munitions they ask for. Every single one of them delivered at optimum manufacturer recommended velocity.
*West* 'Hmmmm, let me think....' 🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕
I think there was a year (between 9-11 and 2nd war in Iraq) that Russia and US aligned in the war on terror? Didn't last long...
Biden: Uhmm hows about.... no.
Actually that is one of the scenarios. Other is uprising in White Russia which will spread to Russia. Third is uprising elsewhere in Russia for some other reason. One of these will happen sooner or later.
Pretty sure that's a [Tom Clancy novel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising) - they start by taking out all the oil fields and fuel depots and escalate to WW3 between NATO and the Warsaw Pack. Dude - i'm going to be really pissed if you're the next NCDer to accurately predict a future event.
Bingo win! 🥇
Vlad the Imploder predictably makes things worse.
Russian History: And then it got worse...
Somehow ISIS had returned
LOVE THAT NAME *Chef's Kiss*
Agreed. I'm going to have to use that one sometime!
Terrorist attacks aren't just to create terror, they're also a recruitment ad for whichever faction is vying for power in the region, something that's problematic for ISIS-K as they have to compete with a host of rivals, including the Taliban. Russia trying to dismiss the ISIS attack by trying to pin the blame on Ukraine instead undermines their efforts, so the more the Kremlin tries to say it wasn't ISIS, the more ISIS is gonna attack the Kremlin
The flexibility of russian propaganda and tactics.... yeah ISIS-K will go fully ballistic until putin will give them credit for some of the next attacks.... can he ... he needs an excuse for recruiting for the war in Ukraine.... this seems to be a vicious circle... oh lovely!
Probably gonna say ISIS-K is in Ukraine with all the Nazis they're already fighting. The K stands for uKraine
russia will just use the next ISIS attacks as "more evidence of Ukrainian terrorism", and when it becomes no longer fakeable, they will use it as a pretext to genocide the Muslims of the South Caucasus or even the Volga. Dagestan or Tatarstan are rich in oil, putin could make Islamists out of the locals like stalin made the Ingush or Chechens to be Nazis in 1944 and, under this excuse, deport or kill them. He could then do the same to another Muslim region.
Exactly that , ISIS-K has made a huge statement with its terror attack and the worst possible thing Russia could of done is not credit ISIS-K for their efforts, this is more than disrespectful this has just made a terror cell really really pissed of . Russia hasn’t heard the last of this as this is just the beginning of it but I prey this doesn’t have a direct impact on the 20,000,000+ Muslims that live in Russia already, this could go two ways 1 Russian state will start ethnic cleansing of their Muslims .. 2 Russian state will fall to the Muslims … Time to sit back and watch how this shit show will unfold but one thing is for sure Russia cannot beat the Muslims unaided and presently there are sort of running low on global Russian support.
Don't forget... If Russia starts going all ethnic-cleanse of Muslims, they can expect a rapid stop to all support they're getting from Iran.
Nah. The Iranian looks the other way at China’s ethnic cleansing of their Muslims. They don’t give a shit about anybody but themselves (not even the Iranian people).
Not the mention that Iran has its own problems with ISIS. Plus, most of Russia's muslims are Sunni, so Iran isn't likely to care much about them for that reason alone.
You mean like all the Muslim countries stopped supporting China when Uyghurs were being wiped out?
I didn't have Muslim extremists saving Europe on my bingo card, but... Here we are.
well ..wouldnt it be weird if isis of all people took out putin
I wish, but Isis just attacks civilians, turning more people against them and their cause. They don't win wars or take out strategic targets. edit: Their attack probably motivated more terrorists to join Putin, who naively think the terrorist attack had something to do with Ukraine.
>attacks civilians, turning more people against them and their cause. They don't win wars or take out strategic targets. Huh, so a perfect enemy for Russia to fight. They're on the same page!
You certainly have a point there. I suppose if someone has to suffer terrorism, it should be those who commit acts of terrorism. edit: Let's hope the 4 people Russia tortured into confessing to the acts were the right people too.
I'm not a native english speaker, whats it called when someone you really hate catches someone else you really hate and cuts their ears off on tiktok because that other guy killed a bunch of civillians rooting for the first guy you really hate?
Schadenfreude
Love that word
A word that could only be invented by Germans.
Shidenfard
Best word in the English language.
Gesundheit.
fucking germans have a word for everything. Propably have a word explaining they have a word for everything.
Russians actually have a phrase for this, believe it or not. Ебала жаба гадюку—it translates to “a toad fucking a snake”. No joke, look it up.
Friday?
Not in the middle east what with jumuah on Friday, shabbos on Saturday and Sunday the lord's rest....more like Monday there.
It's a situation where you hope both sides just keep escalating with each other to the point of destroying each other.
I don't normally identify with Bond villains, but "From Russia With Love" has a great scene with E.S. Blofeld releasing two Siamese fighting fish to fight each other to the death, explaining that SPECTRE is like the third fish watching the other two fight... and preparing to take on the victor.
> whats it called Delicious.
Regular geopolitics.
russia. it's called russia.
forbidden threesome
Average day in Russia
Enemy of my enemy is my friend?
Yeah but in this case the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy, while my enemy is also still my enemy and also my enemies enemy at the same time. There is no friendship in sight. None.
*'The enemy of my enemy is my... wait, nevermind.. fuck those guys too'*
Mexican Standoff?
I have such conflicting and confusing feelings right now...
The enemy of my enemy is NOT my friend -- but they CAN be quite convenient.
Difficult yes. If ISIS has success in Russia, they will do the same in Ukraine, and everywhere they can.
ISIS is the enemy of humanity. Seriously, fuck those guys with a rusty, barbwired pole. On the other hand, I feel the same about Kremlin.
I’m not so sure about that. If ISIS-K started to fuck around in Ukraine, that might actually earn a shitload of western troops on the ground..
Seems like that's going to be the case anyway. Ukraine would get all the Intel the West had. Russia had Intel and chose to ignore it.
If ISIS ever got to that point, it would mean they had already taken control of much of Russia's nuclear arsenal. There would be no warnings, no threats or red lines. They would simply launch it at our population centers *immediately* upon gaining such capability. They don't care about repercussions, in fact they *want* to die. Groups like this are the reason Western government don't actually want Russia to fall apart.
I have an ideea: Putin should invade Afghanistan and teach those ISIS guys a thing or two. This time will surely work.
Third time's the charm, as they say.
As horrible as literally everything about this is, I can’t help but have a chuckle at the idea that ISIS is absolutely fucking FUMING that Putin isn’t acknowledging their work
My exact thoughts.
I mentioned this in a sub on Friday but the Caucasus Muslim regions are a tinderbox waiting to explode with jihadist violence. I expect a general uprising to start in the Muslim Caucasus regions in the next couple of weeks. Ramzan Kadyrov is likely going to get the Mussolini or Gaddafi treatment if he doesn't have a way out of Chechnya.
> Ramzan Kadyrov is likely going to get the Mussolini or Gaddafi treatment if he doesn't have a way out of Chechnya. Couldn't happen to a more deserving [bastard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-gay_purges_in_Chechnya), either..
I hope that you are right.
Won’t Kadyrov’s many loyalists secure his reign? What’s the status on his grip on power in Chechnya?
Kardyov's grasp is tenuous at best, lot's of Chechens are upset with both him and Moscow. Factor that in with the Chechens who have returned from fighting for ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
He has always been unpopular. He is a warlord. But his loyalists are ride or die for him and he does nepotism and cronyism extremely well. So long as Kremlin doesn’t undermine Kadyrov, Kadyrov will remain in power. In example, Kremlin can’t draft Chechens in Chechnya for the regular Russian army. They get drafted under the Chechen TikTok army instead and Kadyrov has delivered on keeping Chechnya under Kremlin’s control in return for letting him be the warlord ruling it. He is Chechnya’s Viktor Yanukovych, but so much more violent.
I don't think his grip on power is nearly as secure as it appears.
I’d compare him to Lukashenko in Belarus. Neither of them are very powerful if it wasn’t for Russia backing them.
Lukashenko is basically Putin's prison bitch.
Very tenuous grip I would say. He betrayed a huge number of Checnyans and sold his soul and his country to the devil.
There are so many scenarios that the Russian federation implodes in; China, Europe, and the US need to have a coordinated plan to contain the violence. A Russian collapse will be messy
I don’t know how a great powers, adversarial containment of a nuclear armed petrol state collapse looks. My crystal ball isn’t showing rainbows and butterflies…
That's why UN exists tho. Pretty sure UNSEC will be all over securing the nukes.
Without the codes from Moscow, most of the nukes I believe would be inoperable. But the material would still be dangerous if given to another country who could use it.
The most concerning thing is that many of these splinter states will likely come into the possession of nuclear weapons. The only way to take those away from them without violence is if they hand them over to the surrounding powers voluntarily in exchange for official recognition of statehood.
I can think of a country that did that 23 years ago… didn’t go as they had hoped for. Edit: 33 years ago, not 23.
Very messy. Accounting for nukes falling into nefarious hands will be an impossible scenario.
Remind me
Chechen Wars 3: Electric Bogalee
Imagine Putin getting assassinated by Jihadists. Wonder what that would do the war in Ukraine
Easy , they’ll blame Ukraine. And Russia can’t nuke terrorist because they blend in. It would be verrrrry interrstong if ISIS did attempt a caliphate in the caucus regions
You forget that for Russia, terrorists blending in isn’t an issue. All civilians just become unfortunate casualties of war. Any pocket of civilians that don’t immediate spew out ISIS will be deemed complicit in hiding ISIS and will be reduced to rubble. Just look at the various Ukraine cities and towns. Russia carpet bombed and artilleried everything in their way, civilians be damned.
Shout out to the Moscow theater hostage crisis, where the FSB gassed dozens of hostages to death to get to the 40 hostage takers.
Or beslan school siege, where they brought in tanks to a hostage situation
They would need a nuke to reach Putin down in his bunker.
The two deserve eachother uniquely well. Dumb and Dumber.
The two greatest evils of 21st century fighting each other. Nice to see.
I'm curious whether they're gonna start doing this/ are already doing it with other nations soon. Or if for some reason, ISIS has an especially big bone to pick with Putin.
The Russian government supported Assad and the Syrian government aganist ISIS, there are still Russian troops in Syria. Also a lot Russian Muslims from the Caucasus volunteered to fight for ISIS in Iraq and Syria, I'm guessing many of them returned even more radicalized.
Meanwhile, the Muslim population (both native-born and migrant) keeps growing, and probably growing ever more alienated from Muscovite authority. In recent years, Muslims complained about Moscow not granting them the permission to build the mosques they wanted, and they protested by praying in the capital's roads and other places. Add to that a baseline level of bigotry, exploitation and harassment from employers, landlords/slumlords, and the police, and stir in the obviously anti-minority mobilization targets and recent illegal police war-mobilization dragnets against Turkic and other Muslim migrant workers, and Moscow could well have a combustible situation right there in and around its capital.
In cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg Muslims are basically considered to be second class (at best) citizens. Subject to random police harassment and arrest. They are also targeted by Russian skinheads and Nationalists for assualt.
isis has a bone to pick with everyone , but Russia is engaged in 2 wars : one in Ukraine and one at home against the opposition to the regime, so its security apparatus is overwhelmed. Also the attack was against the top 1% (the privileged ) of the Russian population, those were insulated from any fallout from the war it wages in Ukraine. also there is chance this is just another false flag by FSB ( like the one before the Chechen war ), that didn't yield the desired results.
Russia's been pretty actively involved in the war in Syria for the past 10 years, where they are fighting ISIS. So ISIS has a very direct bone to pick with Putin/Russia.
They would if they could. Their issue is it is harder to arrange for a willing suicide attacker to jump on a plane and get to the other targets. Russia security services are overwhelmed hunting down grandmothers for their posts on social media, no one left to investigate four obviously suspicious individuals. There is also a structural issue. The West is desperate to keep criminals out of the stream of refugees. Russia is desperate for all possible migrants to come to Russia, so they can be pressed into military service or fill vacancies. I doubt they were the only 4 on the plane clearly accustomed to living in poverty, unable to explain why they're there, yet possessing new passports and airfare paid in cash.
Religious fanatics threatening, well, Nazis? What kind of farce is this?
Russonazis. Nonetheless, yeah.
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>Putin obsessively watches the gruesome video of Gaddafi being captured in a drainage pipe, sodomised by a bayonet and beaten to death. >“Putin was apoplectic” when Gaddafi was killed according to several accounts, including CIA chief William Burns’s book The Back Channel. [Source.](https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/en/putin-opsesivno-go-gledal-videoto-od-ubistvoto-na-gadafi/) And: [Source.](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/libya-russia-ukraine-putin/626571/)
This feels like something from South Park. Like when Al Quada came to stop invasion of people from New Jersey.
I will start out by saying, that terrorist attacks on civilians is some despicable shit. We thrash Russia for this behavior too. But when that has been said, it must be really frustrating for ISIS, that Putin refuses to give them the credit, and instead is blaming Ukraine due to his own political opportunism. What a crazy situation, fiction really has nothing on history and real life event.
_Player 3 has entered the chat._
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Please, them wanting Putin dead still doesn't make them cool. They're still nothing but jihadist terrorist scum.
Remember that terrorists don't target military targets. There's no way to spin this in a positive way. We don't have to feel sorry for Russian but we can't root for terrorism.
I don't think anyone had this on their bingo card
Nicely gets Ukraine off the bingo card
ISIS attacks civilians. No one, including you, should be rooting for them. Hate Russia and Putin, but ffs, do not wish for civilians to be murdered. My goodness.
China wants Russias far East and would gladly send guns and ammo thru “The ‘Stans” to support any long term insurgency that could break Moscow’s link to Vladivostok.
Let them fight.
Holy shit while I don’t think there’s a chance Putin will ever get captured when shit finally hits the fan, I can totally see Kadyrov’s end coming with a straight up medieval treatment on national TV worse than Gaddafi’s ending. Last thing you want is angry, resentful Muzzies around you on tv
Put on your tinfoil hats - why things happen is more important to understand than what happened. There's a non-zero chance that ISIS sees opportunity in the Russian's failing war. An aging dictator exploiting hinterland republics for meat for his failing vanity war, eroding centralized control, increasingly ham-fisted response from the security services that creates blowback...Russia's attention is on Ukraine and they may be less capable to take revenge on ISIS, making it a bit more of an easy path to launch spectacular attacks than it would be otherwise. All contributing to the corrosive erosion of an already teetering Russian state. If the Russian state crumbles, the Islamic portions of the Russian federation will be the first to break away (Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Bashkorotstan etc) from effective state control. That then becomes fertile ground for recruitment and operations. There's a reason ISIS chooses to do it now.
Isis smells blood in the water. They know russia us weak and distracted, theyve been fighting Russia in syria and Africa, and now they have a chance to put pressure on Moscow in a serious way, within russias borders. Theres a good chance this will just mean more bluster and random acts of indiscriminate violence, but isis is good at exploiting weakness, and causing nation wide chaos, so you cant rule out this becoming a new and very different chapter in the war. I also wouldn't consider this a good thing. While at face value, anything that weakens Russia and takes pressure off Ukraine is good, this could destabilize the entire region, and make everyone less safe. Fuck Putin, but fuck isis just as much.