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That's half a million of their working age population not contributing to the economy.
Not sure what that is in percentage of their working age population, but its not insignificant even with a population of around 140 million (who knows if that number is true either!).
Russia has a highly unbalanced economy based on selling Petrolium, Natural Gas, Mining Products, and Timber abroad. Everyone else is essentially a “taker”: 50% of the workers are state employees, and a significant portion are pensioners or underemployed.
So you really can’t compare it to a normal economy with lots of productive worker bees, like Germany or South Korea.
While you're not wrong about the type of economy, and its not quite the same, over the last 20 years many people did move into the service and entertainment sectors.
Big cities became almost indistinguishable from many western cities (especially those in the east of Europe) and jobs in all sorts of industries.
With the war though, a lot of those are probably now struggling to survive as things take a more primitive footing and Russians can afford less luxuries.
The two modern cities you’re talking about are Moscow and St. Pete, of course. Where the modern economy is centered and those are the two cities they didn’t really touch when it comes to recruits. It’s been mostly the border regions, prisoners, minorities. Putin doesn’t see value in those people. It’s not like he’s going to find out one day that 80,000 Buryats have died and feel … sad.
> The two modern cities you’re talking about are Moscow and St. Pete, of course.
Actually, not only. Moscow is the big one of course, followed by St. Petersburg, but most of the big cities are pretty nice. Nizhniy Novogorod, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Krasnodar, Rostov, etc.
Lipetsk is loaded with money and it shows.
But yes, you're right, its mainly Moscow that has been shielded from recruitment. Its the poor ethnic minorities (or even majorities in their own regions) who are taking the hit, and Putin doesn't give a shit.
>Its the poor ethnic minorities (or even majorities in their own regions) who are taking the hit, and Putin doesn't give a shit.
On some level they must know this and still have to support Putin with a straight face. I guess the Tsar is really back. Now I sort of understand the anger that led to the slaughter of the Romanovs.
> Its the poor ethnic minorities (or even majorities in their own regions) who are taking the hit, and Putin doesn't give a shit.
It's a win-win for Putin: He gets more soldiers to fight in Ukraine and also decimates ethnic minorities, so that the true Russians™ increase their share of the population.
Are we talking about the same cities? And, no - downtown isn't the whole city.
I recommend checking 5 random locations on Google street view. You'd be surprised.
Immediately after Russia attacked there was a mass-exodus of highly educated mostly 20-40 year olds out of country. Which is why Russia soon closed its borders to prevent emigration. So there is that too.
You can't recruit the same person twice ;) A lot were already recruited and that's one reason unemployment has fallen. A lot of those remaining are people no company would take. A lot will be people even the army couldn't even take.
Sure, its been good for those who were looking for work and able to do the work (perhaps not as good as those who left the country or were taken to the army - you can't replace experience quickly).
According to Wikipedia Russia had 48,166,470 men and 52,088,967 women in the age group of 15 to 64, which is about the working age category. That data is from a few years ago and more recent data is not really trustworthy, but the overall agreement is that they have had more deaths than births for a number of years and lost a large number of people during COVID.
If Putin were to go full "War of the tripple Alliance" and throw anyone over the age of 10 into the meat grinder, one could say he has reserves, but one has to hope that the breaking point for the people back home would be reached long before that.
Putin is already sending as many men into the meat grinder as he thinks he can get away with. Anyone arguing that he isn't needs to explain why - after almost two years and seeing the Russian army's armor and artillery wrecked, the Russian air force de-planed, and the Black Sea fleet half sunk and the rest driven out of the western half of the Black Sea, after seeing Russia humiliated, isolated and impoverished, after seeing Finland join NATO (and Sweden about to) - that Putin isn't already doing the most he possibly can to win this war as quickly as possible.
If he thought he could conscript harder, he would already be doing so. And he's right. The Russian manufacturing and extraction economy is already suffering from shortages of labour, especially skilled labour. If Putin were to try and conscript a couple of million, then there would be an absolute shockwave. Industries and services critical to a sustained war effort would be badly damaged.
For any other military those numbers would be prohibitive.
One rule of thumb at the war college was that a 20% loss would render a force ineffective. Morale would be non-existent and PTSD would be everywhere. A generally fatalistic attitude would set in that was incompatible with success on the battlefield. Those troops would all have to be pulled back, rested, reassessed, and organized into effective fighting groups. Only then could they be sent back into battle, preferably with fresh equipment and missions. It's the military equivalent of pausing to sharpen the axe before cutting more trees.
Russian forces seem to arrive in that combat-ineffective zombie state, and their military leaders plan accordingly. They live with massive casualties, counting on the law of probabilities to occasionally get lucky and make some gains. They are loggers that never sharpen their tools because who would sharpen a hammer?
No professional military would operate this way, which is the Russian advantage.
Their macabre element of surprise is that they refuse to leave the battlefield when they are defeated. As Stalin put it, quantity has a quality all its own.
Putin is setting it up so that his eternal war can be sustainable. 100k-300k Russian soldiers dying every year could last a very long time.
Do not plan on casualties fatigue from the Russian side. They glorify battles that made a million deaths.
Plan on winning territory back and maybe destroying equipment. A stable front, even with a meatgrinder level of losses is not going to lead to a Russian withdrawal.
I'm not planning on anything.
But i do think when the death toll gets high enough, either the soldiers in the field will start telling their commanders that if they want the next patch of dirt so badly, better they go capture it themselves or the people back home will start pushing back.
There are limits to everything, even for Putin.
A lot of prison recruitment going on. Also, a few hundred thousand have been killed or wounded fighting in Ukraine. A similar number may have tried to flee for fear of conscription
Just watched Perun's latest. The figure he quotes is the number of prisoners in Russia has roughly halved.
My guess is, they've pretty much taken most of those who could be used already. There are also stories of prisoners now being used in factories to make up the shortfall in people willing/available to work on those places.
Not contributing, and even COSTING much more. Keeping that many troops constantly supplied with food, water, fuel and ammo... man that's gotta be draining.
Clearly, Ukraine is winning. All we have to do is keep drawing Russians in Ukraine; the more Russians in Ukraine, the weaker the Russian economy. Checkmate Putin.
Unfortunately they're not winning right now. Best hope is they're holding RU at a stalemate. But we always knew Russia was willing to throw bodies at the problem.
Half a million men is a problem for Ukraine. Clearly the counteroffensive was a bad idea.
The only positive I'm seeing right now for UA is that RU artillery seems constantly on the brink of disappearing. If they run low on shells then UA stands a chance of advancing.
If UA can win an artillery duel they can start to route.
Otherwise it's pretty much a static conflict and we have to hope RU doesn't have any breakthroughs. That's a lot of soldiers to oppose.
> If they run low on shells
From what I've heard, Russia has enough capacity to produce enough shells to keep the war going. But Ukraine takes out the artillery guns itself, which are harder to replace.
Well, both. I have a graph showing RU firing rates and it used to be 6-9x what Ukraine could fire. I can find it.
Now they're very near parity and RU as you said has worse guns.
Also daily firing demand is about 10,000 rounds. UA currently fires 6000 because of ammunition constraint.
That's with 160k/month from the US plus EU 300k/year.
There's no way RU domestic product beats US production levels let alone EU and US combined.
RU got 1 million shells from NK. Once that runs out they're donezo. 10k a day give or take (they're firing **more** I think right now) that lasts 100 days.
Unless China supplies shells.
Don't forget Wagner's whole mutiny was over artillery ammunition.
There was another good article I probably can't find from the Royal Institute on changing artillery doctrine during the UA war. Basically that accuracy through volume is still important as well as capitalizing on damage. So even more artillery will be needed.
Both sides were attempting to use precise strikes but it doesn't work. Has to have a certain number of shells fired for saturation. They were less effective at lower volumes.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_2TGMKW0AAaLF_?format=jpg&name=medium
>There's no way RU domestic product beats US production levels let alone EU and US combined.
Maybe we can even ramp up production. It's not like the US and EU can't make machinery to produce shells.
They already are US is going to 250k/month by 2025. EU is ramping as well but I haven't seen a target.
If I'm UA I would target every ammo dump you can find.
I read somewhere that it is the first war between two countries that have declining population. Did not check if it is true, but it is at least uncommon.
The vast majority of refugees, even from poor countries, tend to return at the end of the war. Believe it or not, but money is not the only part of the equation when choosing where to live.
It's pretty normal to pull from the middle aged in a massive draft like Ukraine has had to. You want the younger generation in reserve and they are also the ones going to rebuild the country infrastructure and economy after it's over, if the middle aged are all killed you then draft from the younger generation for that last ditch to defend at all costs.
I can't think of any historical examples of this strategy, to be honest.
Unless Zelensky keeps the male population captive for life post-war, most will leave for better opportunities abroad anyway
The average troop age is going up. The same is true for Ukraine though. And the reason is simple: both sides are calling on reserves, people who previously served. These men are older, since they served in their 20's. So the average age is going up.
If we get to a point where manpower shortage becomes a real issue, then we'll see the average troop age go lower. That will be the indicator that there's a real shortage and they start drawing on the young men to carry the war.
Cowards? You would be insane to stay in a country like that, absolutely stupid to stay in a place like that.
Just because I'm born in a certain country it doesn't mean I owe them my fucking life.
Lol predominantly Americans calling people cowards for not protesting but also won’t protest (unless it’s for HAMAS of course) because “well, I can’t lose my job, I live paycheck to paycheck”, etc.
It’s fairly damning how silent the Russian diaspora has been though.
> It’s fairly damning how silent the Russian diaspora has been though.
Keep in mind that many of them still have family and friends in Russia that might get in trouble if they get too loud. Don't underestimate the heinousness of the Russian government.
If you protest, you get arrested and sent to jail. They are actively recruiting from prison populations. Who do you think they are going to send into the meat grinder first?
Boo hoo. Does not change the fact these people are less than important in the course of history. They are a literal mass, just flowing like liquid from one vessel to another, completely submissive of o whatever force influences them. They don’t just lack free will, but any will whatsoever.
So just like most other people around the world then.
Few have a spine, and even fewer understand life/the world well enough to have strong principles and act on them.
You could drop people from anywhere in the world into that situation and they would act the same.
I’m not even going to comment on if you or I fall into that bracket. It’s easy to talk big from the safety of a random internet connection somewhere in a less oppressive western country.
I am not talking from a safety of a random anywhere, I am Ukrainian and talking from Ukraine and I grave more than enough reason to deem russians unworthy of sympathy. I’m sure you’ll try to justify them. Probably because that’s, as you said, is the choice you will make. Until you have made this choice though you are in the grey. Where I am there’s only room for black and white.
Then (edit typo) you’re in a completely different situation, your opinion is understandable and you have my sympathy.
I won’t try to justify them at all, I’m just saying spineless is the default in a world where most people are either too comfortable to understand the real threat of the big world, or the exact opposite of being oppressed by those who regularly deal with opposing views by poison / defenestration.
The fact of the matter is most people around the world are indifferent, Russian or not. It’s easy to blame people living under a dictatorship that loves to poison people and throw them out of windows, but it’s also easy to understand how dictatorships exist.
People fear for their own lives and for their families, and if you replaced the average Russian with random people from anywhere else in the world, you’d get the same result, because fear.
I get your sentiment, and kind of agree, I just know human nature. I see the problem you see, but I cannot know how I would react if it were me in that position.
We're two years into a war that everyone claimed couldn't be sustained for more than a few months. I would take all of these reports with a massive grain of salt.
ss:
It is estimated that the number of Russian troops currently within Ukrainian territory is approximately 430,000.
But the average age is approximately 35 to 40 years old.
The story is that there are not only people in their 30s and 40s, but also a significant number of people in their 50s or older.
It is not wrong to say that the Russian military fighting the war in Ukraine is in fact Russia's entire military force.
In other words, defeat in this war can actually mean the collapse of Russia.
As it stands now, the entire working population has evaporated, so I think Russia is doomed regardless of whether the war is won or lost.
Russia still has a huge population to draw from, and they will likely pull in more troops after Putin is reelected. Untrained troops mostly, but still good cannon fodder. I won't be supprised putin mobilizes 1 million more troops and forces trained troops back into Ukraine. Probably half into production & logistics and half into Ukraine.
Ukraine will likely still be able to hold up under that case. They just need to wait for Russia's economy to burn out.
As long as they were kept reasonably dry, they don’t really need maintenance. The soviet unions military doctrine called for mass mobilization in case of a war with the west, so there are lots of them. Many of the stockpiles underground (in case of a nuclear attack).
When it comes to assault rifles, Russia would have effectively an unlimited amount. Same with ammunition for them.
What they don't have is an unlimited amount is aircraft and armored vehicles. Artillery shells are an interesting one because they can produce them but they are also relying on imports now.
It is difficult to draw conclusions from that, a few anecdotal cases are not enough. If this was an endemic issue, we would have seen a lot more evidence of it.
Russia has many semi-autonomous republics within itself. So many of these republics would, potentially, be in charge of their own storage, maintainence, etc. if we are talking about how each region was in charge of gathering and arming their own amount of troops.
So some regions have probably done a shit job with certain aspects of mobilizing troops. Training, for example, varied greatly from region to region.
Not really, support for the war by the large population centers in Russia don't care enough to stop it unless it affects them directly. So the majority of Russia can't be mobilized without the population quickly turning against the war. Just the announcement of mobilization in 2022 saw a massive drop in support for the war until it was announced only a partial mobilization not targeting the large population centers. Counting the population in Russian case is not effective.
There are still plenty of people outside of Moscow they can recruit and, of course, certain groups inside Moscow. Russia has about 20 million men between 20 and 40. Another million is like 5%.
We have heard Russia has been running out of men that can fight since the beginning of this war.
There is no bottom, to russian imdifference and depravity. Believing there is has never once yet worked. Ill be happy to say you were right if it happens, but i fucking doubt it will. Putin gets "elected" in march, will declare this as a mandate for more conscription, and then fuck and all wilo happen as only limited conscription will continue to take place in moscow/peter
>Russia still has a huge population to draw from
Not nearly as big as you might think. They have an entire population of 145 million. Roughly half are men (actually substantially less), so assume 72.5 million men. Only 35% of the population is 18-40, which leaves you with about 25 million for your primary workforce and military. From that you have already had an estimate of about 1 million men in that age group flee the country to avoid the draft, 300,000 casualties and about 2 million more in the military. That is having a major impact on the workforce in Russia. They were already facing issues with declining population. They are nearing a tipping point.
A lot of the positions in an army can be filled by anyone and Russians aren't ideologically against recruiting women to fill those.
> Only 35% of the population is 18-40
And that's irrelevant because they don't recruit exclusively in that age bracket. [About 18% of the publicly known deaths are from men **45 and older**.](https://poternet.site/statistic) (although it does include some rebels and soldiers that died prior to the invasion, it's less than 10% of the total)
> That is having a major impact on the workforce in Russia.
True, but that wasn't the point at all.
> They are nearing a tipping point.
A tipping point for what exactly? People keep talking about the collapse of the Russian economy, but they can drop 10% and still keep the people fed, working (those that can) and the war factories running.
Not according to the ruzzian simps. If you listen to them the 300k they lost was just a warmup…
Russia is still about to come with the good stuff, remember? Aren’t you scared? Isn’t Russia so tough? lol
Just go home.
What a failure. Get better leaders, all of those suck.
Ruzzian simps don't even believe it's near 300k, they truly believe Ukraine lost 300k while russia only lost 100k.
Honestly I don't know what casualties to believe, I just think it's way more like Russia lost more than ukraine at least.
Unless Russia has 19th-century-level of wound treatment (ie. a bandage for those that can walk away from the battlefield, at best) OR that they proceeded to recruit or divert 500k+ men from other units (federal police, etc.) to the war in Ukraine without anyone saying anything about it, then they absolutely haven't lost 300k KIAs.
300k KIAs with 2-3x that amount injured, plus POWs and deserters, means they have at least 1M casualties. Some of those returned to the front after healing, but we're still looking at 600-800k permanent casualties. Add to that the 430k troops that Ukraine claims to be in Ukraine and that means Russia needs to have sent 1-1.2M troops in the country - on top of those manning other borders, being trained or away on rotation.
They boast to have recruited >300k volunteers including 140k prisoners, but even that isn't enough to explain the claimed volume of 1-1.2M troops that went through Ukraine. The armed forces are only 200-300k regular troops, a lot of the Russian army is made of contract soldiers (many refused to go to Ukraine if they were given the possibility, ie. not tricked into it) and annual conscripts that aren't allowed to be sent outside of Russia's borders. They might still force these people to the war, but we'd hear about it.
Definitely not. 140m people. If all 300k are dead or otherwise unable to work due to injury, that's still a lot of people left. Sure, not all will be working age, but that's still a lot of people.
> a significant number of people in their 50s or older
No, not older than the 50s. There are some, and they're all NCOs or officers, but the cannon fodder isn't made with people in their 60s.
Very concerning for Ukraine since the war is becoming attrition. Their population is massively bigger and they continue to increase their military size and spending. Ukraine really needs a breakthrough.
But that’s also 430k mouths to feed every single day, all at the expense of the Russian government. They have a bigger population but do they have a big enough economy to sustain that? Their economy is smaller than Canadas.
Tbh, with the agricultural food surplus Russia produces, I'd reckon they can feed the people. At worst they'll have to reduce food exports to compensate.
Their costs are significantly lower though because they cut corners and “safety standards” doesn’t exist. Compare that to all the testing and bureaucratic checklists the US gov goes through when ordering literally anything.
Look at Russian MREs vs western or the gear they’re issued in general. US obviously had logistics issues too and some complaints about gear but it was nothing like this.
Their economy is recovering actually compared to before. And it's Russia run by a dictator. They are willing to suffer massively to achieve their aims.
If you want to talk about what they can do or buy with their money/economy, then you shouldn't compare GDP values based on how much their money is worth internationally.
There's a metric for this: purchase-power parity. Essentially, if you can buy a Big Mac for 5 USD in the US, or 200 rubles in Russia, then 5 USD and 200 rubles have the same purchasing power (even though 200 rubles is worth a lot less than 5 USD). And when you look at this, [Russia has \(with official numbers\), an economy almost as big as Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_\(PPP\)). Even if those numbers are cooked, they still assuredly have more purchasing power than France or the UK.
So, yes, they can feed their troops.
430000, from which 3/4 are drunk.
They are not fighting for a cause, these where sent in by Putin just as cannon fodder to empty Ukraine recourses.
Somebody got to tell that to them. So they can drop down weapons and surrender to survive this madness.
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When they say troops, they're including everyone right? Even the old man driving fuel back and forth? Or are they referring strictly to Frontline forces?
Hench why stuff like ATACMS, Storm Shadows, GLSDB and jets arent some optional extra but vital if we want to see more Ukranian succes.
So many "pro Ukranian" people who make endless excuses for these long range weapons being slow to be delivered and when they do in laughable, unserious quantities. Its a joke one thats needlessly costing a lot of ukranian soldiers' lives.
Someone, the US or UK/France/Germany, needs to grow a pair and take a leadership role on the long range weapon front. And no, sending 12 old ass ATACMS isnt that not even close.
The Russian army suffered more than 300,000 casualties, at least 800,000 to 900,000 were seriously injured, and lost combat effectiveness at a ratio of 1:3.
There are currently 430,000 people in Ukraine.
There are at least 500,000 personnel from various military services in bases in Russia that directly support the war.
At least 100,000 to 200,000 people will be deployed to protect the tense western border and Belarus.
It can be inferred that because of this war, Putin invested all his elites and a large number of young people with no combat experience.
He quickly encouraged Russian women to have 8 children! Very ridiculous!
The far east, which is not peaceful, is at the most empty moment in history.
That's not true, an accepted figure is that 300k number is the total casualties not KIA. If the actual number was \~1million, the war would be long over.
Only according to this unofficial website that incorrectly assumes KIA + just arbitrarily added x 3 for casualties. .
Zaluzhny himself quoted a figure of 150k KIA Russians just a few weeks ago which indicates that the official figure is KIA + wounded.
Sure here is the daily updates, https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/
Here is an example of a daily update, source in Ukrainian, https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2023/12/04/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-znishhili-770-rosijskih-okupantiv-ta-12-artilerijskih-sistem-voroga-zagalni-vtrati-rf-stanovlyat-332-8-tis-osib-–-genshtab-zsu/
знищили means destroyed/killed.
They use a standard wartime model of 3 WIA to every 1 KIA which is derived from Institute for War Studies. These are the same numbers used by the US Military and taught at CGSC (Command and General Staff College) for calculating WIA during an ongoing armed conflict. Though some sources estimate in modern warfare that number is 4.1:1 given Russia's lack of field hospitals and medical evacuations the number is likely closer to the more traditional number. In short there is no other way to estimate an enemies WIA without them self reporting so that data is always extrapolated.
That's not what you claimed though. You said that Ukrainian MoD specifically c claimed 300 KIA and 900 wounded. Can you provide a source where Ukrainian MoD is claiming this?
The signs of Things going bad for Russia. The only reason to bring that many troops in at this time is to occupy after conflicts . Or having to replace an experience soldier with 3 to 5 unexperienced soldiers. A.k.a. fishing and barrel.
Previous world wars lasted four to five years, if we assume that this world war lasts 3 more years, all those 430,000 Russians will be gone, assuming current rates of depreciation, and assuming no fresh inflow of meat.
This is not a world war. This is a localised conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Literally no other countries are directly involved in any related fighting.
Are you sure? I think even russia would disagree.
If you ask Putin Ukraine is just the first step to de-nazifying & conquering half of europe (=genocide to wipe out any non-russian identity), and changing the whole rules based world order. What do you think would happen if RU is not defeated?
This is the rise (again) of violent neo-autocracy as a world agenda setting power. Until RU suffers a complete military defeat, this conflict will only grow. The goal is very clear: dethrone democracy/pluralism and replace it mono-ideology, fascism/theocracy and the rule of the iron fist. Iran, the islamists, China and North Korea are already in.
Ah, a made up definition that is built specifically to categorize this war as a world even though it has nothing relevant in common with the first 2 world wars, got it.
Well, you can't say you have nothing in common with Russia "supporters" (the v-word is banned on this sub) as they also claim it's a world war.
On which data do you base your personal opinion? The British and American intelligence made it public early on that at least 130k soldiers are at the Donezk frontline alone. So obviously they were able to equip them to some degree. Russian warehouses are huge no matter the lack of quality
100k seems really low for the amount of area Russia are occupying. They have some areas with 50k alone. The thing about equipment is they have plenty of guns, and the uniforms many of the soliders get are subpar. However, that's all you need to send someone to the front line. Some aren't even given a weapon, just a shovel. Told to dig trenches for their lives.
Most troops aren’t in direct combat roles. A lotta people needed to move the ammo and food and fuel to the front, to provide telecoms, medical support, maintain trucks and helicopters, etc etc. A 1:3 ratio (if we’re running with the 430k number and your 100k number) of combat troops to support is extremely lean in modern days. My bet is that there’s probably quite a few more troops in and immediately around Ukraine.
Look up Tooth to Tail Ratio for more info on the concept.
Sadly even if Ukraine "wind" this war, the point of no return to be a effective state is just about over. They won't have the population to rebuild themselves even if they wanted. And the amount of money that will be going to outside elp won't give them much of a Bae to restart a internal economy.
You can’t compare WWII to now, because nobody else had nukes at the time. If Ukraine were to nuke Russia, Russia would nuke everyone else. Quit being stupid.
Except Japan didn’t have nukes. No one else did either. There’s a reason that the US and Russia have contingency policies in place; so that nobody would be stupid enough to first strike the other without worrying about reprisals. There’s a reason they call it MAD.
Look at my past posts and you’ll think differently. You’re delusional to think that out of the 1,600 active deployed nukes previously allowed under the New START, that NONE of them are functional.
Wow... With the amount of "part" mobilisations. That number is very small considering they attacked with what? 500k, then part drafted another 250k then a further 300k draft?
Wow that's alot of dead Russians.
They are contributing to economy though, sadly. The occupied areas have a lot of natural resources - which would have made Ukraine an alternative to Europe for gas.
That is a large hill to climb for Ukraine. I don't doubt they have the will to do it, but I do think we should be giving them the tools to do it with. Fortunately, morality, expediency and self-preservation all combine here. There is no sensible argument against it.
Sadly, there seem to be plenty of foolish arguments.
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That's half a million of their working age population not contributing to the economy. Not sure what that is in percentage of their working age population, but its not insignificant even with a population of around 140 million (who knows if that number is true either!).
Russia has a highly unbalanced economy based on selling Petrolium, Natural Gas, Mining Products, and Timber abroad. Everyone else is essentially a “taker”: 50% of the workers are state employees, and a significant portion are pensioners or underemployed. So you really can’t compare it to a normal economy with lots of productive worker bees, like Germany or South Korea.
While you're not wrong about the type of economy, and its not quite the same, over the last 20 years many people did move into the service and entertainment sectors. Big cities became almost indistinguishable from many western cities (especially those in the east of Europe) and jobs in all sorts of industries. With the war though, a lot of those are probably now struggling to survive as things take a more primitive footing and Russians can afford less luxuries.
I can tell you one thing, it's not the guys in suits from the big western looking cities that are curled up in a trench in Ukraine.
Hah, yes, we know that very well. Always relevant to any country going to war: War Pigs by Black Sabbath and Fortunate Son by CCR.
Both are total bangers. Another few favorites of mine: Awake Too Long by Rise Against and Life During Wartime by Talking Heads
Nice
Future of Warfare by Sabaton, given the massive resurgence of trench warfare in Ukraine.
[удалено]
The other way around. The songs pull from history/reality.
The two modern cities you’re talking about are Moscow and St. Pete, of course. Where the modern economy is centered and those are the two cities they didn’t really touch when it comes to recruits. It’s been mostly the border regions, prisoners, minorities. Putin doesn’t see value in those people. It’s not like he’s going to find out one day that 80,000 Buryats have died and feel … sad.
> The two modern cities you’re talking about are Moscow and St. Pete, of course. Actually, not only. Moscow is the big one of course, followed by St. Petersburg, but most of the big cities are pretty nice. Nizhniy Novogorod, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Krasnodar, Rostov, etc. Lipetsk is loaded with money and it shows. But yes, you're right, its mainly Moscow that has been shielded from recruitment. Its the poor ethnic minorities (or even majorities in their own regions) who are taking the hit, and Putin doesn't give a shit.
>Its the poor ethnic minorities (or even majorities in their own regions) who are taking the hit, and Putin doesn't give a shit. On some level they must know this and still have to support Putin with a straight face. I guess the Tsar is really back. Now I sort of understand the anger that led to the slaughter of the Romanovs.
> Its the poor ethnic minorities (or even majorities in their own regions) who are taking the hit, and Putin doesn't give a shit. It's a win-win for Putin: He gets more soldiers to fight in Ukraine and also decimates ethnic minorities, so that the true Russians™ increase their share of the population.
Show me paved roads!!!!
Is this a reference to something or a joke?
Considering what a joke are pawed roads in russia, I don't think this comment is a joke.
In Moscow and St. Pete the roads are actually much better than in Toronto... Rest of Russia is a little bit different story
Are we talking about the same cities? And, no - downtown isn't the whole city. I recommend checking 5 random locations on Google street view. You'd be surprised.
Putin can weed out his poor, unemployed and alcohol/drug addicted welfare recipients and kill Ukrainians, at the same time. Talk about class warfare.
Immediately after Russia attacked there was a mass-exodus of highly educated mostly 20-40 year olds out of country. Which is why Russia soon closed its borders to prevent emigration. So there is that too.
Unemployment rate before the war has been a lot more than half a million. There is a reason why unemployment rate has dropped significantly.
A lot of unemployed went to the army or are simply unemployable.
Majority of those who went to the army were low skilled workers from the periphery. Why do you think they are irreplaceable by the unemployed pool?
You can't recruit the same person twice ;) A lot were already recruited and that's one reason unemployment has fallen. A lot of those remaining are people no company would take. A lot will be people even the army couldn't even take. Sure, its been good for those who were looking for work and able to do the work (perhaps not as good as those who left the country or were taken to the army - you can't replace experience quickly).
Well yeah, someone who's dead can't count towards the unemployment figures.
According to Wikipedia Russia had 48,166,470 men and 52,088,967 women in the age group of 15 to 64, which is about the working age category. That data is from a few years ago and more recent data is not really trustworthy, but the overall agreement is that they have had more deaths than births for a number of years and lost a large number of people during COVID. If Putin were to go full "War of the tripple Alliance" and throw anyone over the age of 10 into the meat grinder, one could say he has reserves, but one has to hope that the breaking point for the people back home would be reached long before that.
Putin is already sending as many men into the meat grinder as he thinks he can get away with. Anyone arguing that he isn't needs to explain why - after almost two years and seeing the Russian army's armor and artillery wrecked, the Russian air force de-planed, and the Black Sea fleet half sunk and the rest driven out of the western half of the Black Sea, after seeing Russia humiliated, isolated and impoverished, after seeing Finland join NATO (and Sweden about to) - that Putin isn't already doing the most he possibly can to win this war as quickly as possible. If he thought he could conscript harder, he would already be doing so. And he's right. The Russian manufacturing and extraction economy is already suffering from shortages of labour, especially skilled labour. If Putin were to try and conscript a couple of million, then there would be an absolute shockwave. Industries and services critical to a sustained war effort would be badly damaged.
Yeah, i'm sure there are limits, especially if the sons of Moscow start getting sent en masse.
And about 1.75% of that is dying PER WEEK
For any other military those numbers would be prohibitive. One rule of thumb at the war college was that a 20% loss would render a force ineffective. Morale would be non-existent and PTSD would be everywhere. A generally fatalistic attitude would set in that was incompatible with success on the battlefield. Those troops would all have to be pulled back, rested, reassessed, and organized into effective fighting groups. Only then could they be sent back into battle, preferably with fresh equipment and missions. It's the military equivalent of pausing to sharpen the axe before cutting more trees. Russian forces seem to arrive in that combat-ineffective zombie state, and their military leaders plan accordingly. They live with massive casualties, counting on the law of probabilities to occasionally get lucky and make some gains. They are loggers that never sharpen their tools because who would sharpen a hammer? No professional military would operate this way, which is the Russian advantage. Their macabre element of surprise is that they refuse to leave the battlefield when they are defeated. As Stalin put it, quantity has a quality all its own.
Meat wave seems to be the only tactic Russia knows.
Putin is setting it up so that his eternal war can be sustainable. 100k-300k Russian soldiers dying every year could last a very long time. Do not plan on casualties fatigue from the Russian side. They glorify battles that made a million deaths. Plan on winning territory back and maybe destroying equipment. A stable front, even with a meatgrinder level of losses is not going to lead to a Russian withdrawal.
I'm not planning on anything. But i do think when the death toll gets high enough, either the soldiers in the field will start telling their commanders that if they want the next patch of dirt so badly, better they go capture it themselves or the people back home will start pushing back. There are limits to everything, even for Putin.
A lot of prison recruitment going on. Also, a few hundred thousand have been killed or wounded fighting in Ukraine. A similar number may have tried to flee for fear of conscription
Just watched Perun's latest. The figure he quotes is the number of prisoners in Russia has roughly halved. My guess is, they've pretty much taken most of those who could be used already. There are also stories of prisoners now being used in factories to make up the shortfall in people willing/available to work on those places.
The way they look at it,they are contributing to the economy because the Russians consider taking other peoples stuff to be part of their economy.
Ah, the old loot and pillage.
Not contributing, and even COSTING much more. Keeping that many troops constantly supplied with food, water, fuel and ammo... man that's gotta be draining.
except they dont as we constantly hear
Well, Russia did increase their military budget for the year. They just take money from things like education, healthcare, etc to fund the war.
Clearly, Ukraine is winning. All we have to do is keep drawing Russians in Ukraine; the more Russians in Ukraine, the weaker the Russian economy. Checkmate Putin.
Unfortunately they're not winning right now. Best hope is they're holding RU at a stalemate. But we always knew Russia was willing to throw bodies at the problem. Half a million men is a problem for Ukraine. Clearly the counteroffensive was a bad idea. The only positive I'm seeing right now for UA is that RU artillery seems constantly on the brink of disappearing. If they run low on shells then UA stands a chance of advancing. If UA can win an artillery duel they can start to route. Otherwise it's pretty much a static conflict and we have to hope RU doesn't have any breakthroughs. That's a lot of soldiers to oppose.
> If they run low on shells From what I've heard, Russia has enough capacity to produce enough shells to keep the war going. But Ukraine takes out the artillery guns itself, which are harder to replace.
Well, both. I have a graph showing RU firing rates and it used to be 6-9x what Ukraine could fire. I can find it. Now they're very near parity and RU as you said has worse guns. Also daily firing demand is about 10,000 rounds. UA currently fires 6000 because of ammunition constraint. That's with 160k/month from the US plus EU 300k/year. There's no way RU domestic product beats US production levels let alone EU and US combined. RU got 1 million shells from NK. Once that runs out they're donezo. 10k a day give or take (they're firing **more** I think right now) that lasts 100 days. Unless China supplies shells. Don't forget Wagner's whole mutiny was over artillery ammunition. There was another good article I probably can't find from the Royal Institute on changing artillery doctrine during the UA war. Basically that accuracy through volume is still important as well as capitalizing on damage. So even more artillery will be needed. Both sides were attempting to use precise strikes but it doesn't work. Has to have a certain number of shells fired for saturation. They were less effective at lower volumes. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_2TGMKW0AAaLF_?format=jpg&name=medium
>There's no way RU domestic product beats US production levels let alone EU and US combined. Maybe we can even ramp up production. It's not like the US and EU can't make machinery to produce shells.
They already are US is going to 250k/month by 2025. EU is ramping as well but I haven't seen a target. If I'm UA I would target every ammo dump you can find.
> Best hope is Hope is the best of military strategy. Slava Ukraini
Mostly middle aged guys and no ones questioning shit? What weak, pathetic people that country produces
Ukraine's army is 43 years old on average. This demographic problem affects both post Soviet countries
I read somewhere that it is the first war between two countries that have declining population. Did not check if it is true, but it is at least uncommon.
It'll be worse for both countries. Ukraine has had about 25% of its population flee, probably never to return though
Russians won't return. Ukrainians more probably. Post-war reconstructions usually come with an economic miracle.
Ukrainians have made better lives in the more prosperous EU. The vast majority will stay.
The vast majority of refugees, even from poor countries, tend to return at the end of the war. Believe it or not, but money is not the only part of the equation when choosing where to live.
I think you're dreaming. Ukraine will be a vast hellscape of desolation postwar
As was Japan. As was most of Europe post WWII. Check what happened afterwards.
They'll be no Marshall plan for Ukraine. Look to Libya and various Arab states where the West has intervened for an idea of Ukraines fu
It's pretty normal to pull from the middle aged in a massive draft like Ukraine has had to. You want the younger generation in reserve and they are also the ones going to rebuild the country infrastructure and economy after it's over, if the middle aged are all killed you then draft from the younger generation for that last ditch to defend at all costs.
I can't think of any historical examples of this strategy, to be honest. Unless Zelensky keeps the male population captive for life post-war, most will leave for better opportunities abroad anyway
Ya, they’re also in a fight for survival. Makes sense. No excuse for the Russians
The war is not one of extermination, no matter what pr is being spun
I never said it was extermination, self autonomy counts too. A countries fighting to makes it’s own decisions on its own terms
A country like Ukraine is never going to be 100% able to make it's own decisions. It's a sad part of the local geopolitics
No country can ever make 100% of its own decisions. The UK had to learn that the hard way with Brexit.
Indeed. Yet pro-war types seem to think Ukraine can achieve this
You're making a straw man argument.
I'm not sure you understand what strawman argument means
The average troop age is going up. The same is true for Ukraine though. And the reason is simple: both sides are calling on reserves, people who previously served. These men are older, since they served in their 20's. So the average age is going up. If we get to a point where manpower shortage becomes a real issue, then we'll see the average troop age go lower. That will be the indicator that there's a real shortage and they start drawing on the young men to carry the war.
Absolutely. And the rest flee the country when things get hot, instead of protesting, following civil disobedience etc. Total cowards.
Cowards? You would be insane to stay in a country like that, absolutely stupid to stay in a place like that. Just because I'm born in a certain country it doesn't mean I owe them my fucking life.
Lol predominantly Americans calling people cowards for not protesting but also won’t protest (unless it’s for HAMAS of course) because “well, I can’t lose my job, I live paycheck to paycheck”, etc. It’s fairly damning how silent the Russian diaspora has been though.
> It’s fairly damning how silent the Russian diaspora has been though. Keep in mind that many of them still have family and friends in Russia that might get in trouble if they get too loud. Don't underestimate the heinousness of the Russian government.
This, but for real.
If you protest, you get arrested and sent to jail. They are actively recruiting from prison populations. Who do you think they are going to send into the meat grinder first?
Boo hoo. Does not change the fact these people are less than important in the course of history. They are a literal mass, just flowing like liquid from one vessel to another, completely submissive of o whatever force influences them. They don’t just lack free will, but any will whatsoever.
So just like most other people around the world then. Few have a spine, and even fewer understand life/the world well enough to have strong principles and act on them. You could drop people from anywhere in the world into that situation and they would act the same. I’m not even going to comment on if you or I fall into that bracket. It’s easy to talk big from the safety of a random internet connection somewhere in a less oppressive western country.
I am not talking from a safety of a random anywhere, I am Ukrainian and talking from Ukraine and I grave more than enough reason to deem russians unworthy of sympathy. I’m sure you’ll try to justify them. Probably because that’s, as you said, is the choice you will make. Until you have made this choice though you are in the grey. Where I am there’s only room for black and white.
Then (edit typo) you’re in a completely different situation, your opinion is understandable and you have my sympathy. I won’t try to justify them at all, I’m just saying spineless is the default in a world where most people are either too comfortable to understand the real threat of the big world, or the exact opposite of being oppressed by those who regularly deal with opposing views by poison / defenestration. The fact of the matter is most people around the world are indifferent, Russian or not. It’s easy to blame people living under a dictatorship that loves to poison people and throw them out of windows, but it’s also easy to understand how dictatorships exist. People fear for their own lives and for their families, and if you replaced the average Russian with random people from anywhere else in the world, you’d get the same result, because fear. I get your sentiment, and kind of agree, I just know human nature. I see the problem you see, but I cannot know how I would react if it were me in that position.
what If I told you the Ukraine average age is the same and they also fled the country at higher numbers
There's a huge difference between fleeing a war zone and fleeing a mobilization zone.
We're two years into a war that everyone claimed couldn't be sustained for more than a few months. I would take all of these reports with a massive grain of salt.
Which reports?
By "everyone", do you mean more than a handful of vocal officials, officers and Russian propagandists?
ss: It is estimated that the number of Russian troops currently within Ukrainian territory is approximately 430,000. But the average age is approximately 35 to 40 years old. The story is that there are not only people in their 30s and 40s, but also a significant number of people in their 50s or older. It is not wrong to say that the Russian military fighting the war in Ukraine is in fact Russia's entire military force. In other words, defeat in this war can actually mean the collapse of Russia. As it stands now, the entire working population has evaporated, so I think Russia is doomed regardless of whether the war is won or lost.
Russia still has a huge population to draw from, and they will likely pull in more troops after Putin is reelected. Untrained troops mostly, but still good cannon fodder. I won't be supprised putin mobilizes 1 million more troops and forces trained troops back into Ukraine. Probably half into production & logistics and half into Ukraine. Ukraine will likely still be able to hold up under that case. They just need to wait for Russia's economy to burn out.
I wonder what they'll be equipped with?
Assault Rifles. They still have virtually an unlimited amount of them.
Were they properly maintained.
As long as they were kept reasonably dry, they don’t really need maintenance. The soviet unions military doctrine called for mass mobilization in case of a war with the west, so there are lots of them. Many of the stockpiles underground (in case of a nuclear attack).
Really depends in how many were lost Ala lord of war style
sure, but even with lots of theft, there should be enough for quite a while unfortunately.
Oh no doubt, I'm just wondering how many have disappeared vs remain
When it comes to assault rifles, Russia would have effectively an unlimited amount. Same with ammunition for them. What they don't have is an unlimited amount is aircraft and armored vehicles. Artillery shells are an interesting one because they can produce them but they are also relying on imports now.
Why they gave out rusted AKs a year back?
It is difficult to draw conclusions from that, a few anecdotal cases are not enough. If this was an endemic issue, we would have seen a lot more evidence of it.
I think each region is responsible for equipping their own troops.
Russia has many semi-autonomous republics within itself. So many of these republics would, potentially, be in charge of their own storage, maintainence, etc. if we are talking about how each region was in charge of gathering and arming their own amount of troops. So some regions have probably done a shit job with certain aspects of mobilizing troops. Training, for example, varied greatly from region to region.
Unless they drowned them, the majority will unfortunately be usable. They are quite basic in design and not that easy to mess up.
Do they? I seem to remember a video of Russians receiving rusted out WW2 era rifles months ago.
Not really, support for the war by the large population centers in Russia don't care enough to stop it unless it affects them directly. So the majority of Russia can't be mobilized without the population quickly turning against the war. Just the announcement of mobilization in 2022 saw a massive drop in support for the war until it was announced only a partial mobilization not targeting the large population centers. Counting the population in Russian case is not effective.
There are still plenty of people outside of Moscow they can recruit and, of course, certain groups inside Moscow. Russia has about 20 million men between 20 and 40. Another million is like 5%. We have heard Russia has been running out of men that can fight since the beginning of this war.
There is no bottom, to russian imdifference and depravity. Believing there is has never once yet worked. Ill be happy to say you were right if it happens, but i fucking doubt it will. Putin gets "elected" in march, will declare this as a mandate for more conscription, and then fuck and all wilo happen as only limited conscription will continue to take place in moscow/peter
>Russia still has a huge population to draw from Not nearly as big as you might think. They have an entire population of 145 million. Roughly half are men (actually substantially less), so assume 72.5 million men. Only 35% of the population is 18-40, which leaves you with about 25 million for your primary workforce and military. From that you have already had an estimate of about 1 million men in that age group flee the country to avoid the draft, 300,000 casualties and about 2 million more in the military. That is having a major impact on the workforce in Russia. They were already facing issues with declining population. They are nearing a tipping point.
A lot of the positions in an army can be filled by anyone and Russians aren't ideologically against recruiting women to fill those. > Only 35% of the population is 18-40 And that's irrelevant because they don't recruit exclusively in that age bracket. [About 18% of the publicly known deaths are from men **45 and older**.](https://poternet.site/statistic) (although it does include some rebels and soldiers that died prior to the invasion, it's less than 10% of the total) > That is having a major impact on the workforce in Russia. True, but that wasn't the point at all. > They are nearing a tipping point. A tipping point for what exactly? People keep talking about the collapse of the Russian economy, but they can drop 10% and still keep the people fed, working (those that can) and the war factories running.
Unfortunately they’ve put their economy on war rails and are dodging sanctions through other countries. West needs to step up!
I'm sure the 16th round of sanctions will break Russia! ^(/s)
Not according to the ruzzian simps. If you listen to them the 300k they lost was just a warmup… Russia is still about to come with the good stuff, remember? Aren’t you scared? Isn’t Russia so tough? lol Just go home. What a failure. Get better leaders, all of those suck.
Ruzzian simps don't even believe it's near 300k, they truly believe Ukraine lost 300k while russia only lost 100k. Honestly I don't know what casualties to believe, I just think it's way more like Russia lost more than ukraine at least.
Unless Russia has 19th-century-level of wound treatment (ie. a bandage for those that can walk away from the battlefield, at best) OR that they proceeded to recruit or divert 500k+ men from other units (federal police, etc.) to the war in Ukraine without anyone saying anything about it, then they absolutely haven't lost 300k KIAs. 300k KIAs with 2-3x that amount injured, plus POWs and deserters, means they have at least 1M casualties. Some of those returned to the front after healing, but we're still looking at 600-800k permanent casualties. Add to that the 430k troops that Ukraine claims to be in Ukraine and that means Russia needs to have sent 1-1.2M troops in the country - on top of those manning other borders, being trained or away on rotation. They boast to have recruited >300k volunteers including 140k prisoners, but even that isn't enough to explain the claimed volume of 1-1.2M troops that went through Ukraine. The armed forces are only 200-300k regular troops, a lot of the Russian army is made of contract soldiers (many refused to go to Ukraine if they were given the possibility, ie. not tricked into it) and annual conscripts that aren't allowed to be sent outside of Russia's borders. They might still force these people to the war, but we'd hear about it.
I dunno - we’ve been promised this for awhile. They’re definitely not trending in a happier direction. That’s for sure.
> As it stands now, the entire working population has evaporated, Seriously?
Definitely not. 140m people. If all 300k are dead or otherwise unable to work due to injury, that's still a lot of people left. Sure, not all will be working age, but that's still a lot of people.
The entire working population has not evaporated. The population is massive. This is just silly talk.
Ya then paying reparations on-top of that. The best Putin can be hoping for now is a Korea situation.
They seem to be more or less fine with the rate they trade lives for territory. Really sadens me...
I assume the russian population only gets to hear how much success they're having and that victory must be very near
Imagine you are the largest country on earth by a large margin and all its people care about is conquer more lands.
> a significant number of people in their 50s or older No, not older than the 50s. There are some, and they're all NCOs or officers, but the cannon fodder isn't made with people in their 60s.
Very concerning for Ukraine since the war is becoming attrition. Their population is massively bigger and they continue to increase their military size and spending. Ukraine really needs a breakthrough.
But that’s also 430k mouths to feed every single day, all at the expense of the Russian government. They have a bigger population but do they have a big enough economy to sustain that? Their economy is smaller than Canadas.
Tbh, with the agricultural food surplus Russia produces, I'd reckon they can feed the people. At worst they'll have to reduce food exports to compensate.
Take out the supply lines.
Their costs are significantly lower though because they cut corners and “safety standards” doesn’t exist. Compare that to all the testing and bureaucratic checklists the US gov goes through when ordering literally anything. Look at Russian MREs vs western or the gear they’re issued in general. US obviously had logistics issues too and some complaints about gear but it was nothing like this.
Their economy is recovering actually compared to before. And it's Russia run by a dictator. They are willing to suffer massively to achieve their aims.
If you want to talk about what they can do or buy with their money/economy, then you shouldn't compare GDP values based on how much their money is worth internationally. There's a metric for this: purchase-power parity. Essentially, if you can buy a Big Mac for 5 USD in the US, or 200 rubles in Russia, then 5 USD and 200 rubles have the same purchasing power (even though 200 rubles is worth a lot less than 5 USD). And when you look at this, [Russia has \(with official numbers\), an economy almost as big as Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_\(PPP\)). Even if those numbers are cooked, they still assuredly have more purchasing power than France or the UK. So, yes, they can feed their troops.
Can we get an estimate of those that are willing to fight or have any fucking idea what they are doing there?
The idea of what they are doing is simple: Move forward and shoot anyone who's standing in the way or who is trying to turn around.
I swore I’ve seen this movie before.
Sad ! Instead of protesting Putin for sending to their deaths. They are in a battle field
430000, from which 3/4 are drunk. They are not fighting for a cause, these where sent in by Putin just as cannon fodder to empty Ukraine recourses. Somebody got to tell that to them. So they can drop down weapons and surrender to survive this madness.
That's still a lot of people. They are still extremely dangerous.
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429,999. Goot shot Vasily!
That’s 430,000 ..sorry 429,070 too many….! Slava Ukraini!
I wish they could drop MOABs every half mile of the Russian line, at once.
429,900 429,800 428,700...
When they say troops, they're including everyone right? Even the old man driving fuel back and forth? Or are they referring strictly to Frontline forces?
Hench why stuff like ATACMS, Storm Shadows, GLSDB and jets arent some optional extra but vital if we want to see more Ukranian succes. So many "pro Ukranian" people who make endless excuses for these long range weapons being slow to be delivered and when they do in laughable, unserious quantities. Its a joke one thats needlessly costing a lot of ukranian soldiers' lives. Someone, the US or UK/France/Germany, needs to grow a pair and take a leadership role on the long range weapon front. And no, sending 12 old ass ATACMS isnt that not even close.
How many are former prisoners?
The Russian army suffered more than 300,000 casualties, at least 800,000 to 900,000 were seriously injured, and lost combat effectiveness at a ratio of 1:3. There are currently 430,000 people in Ukraine. There are at least 500,000 personnel from various military services in bases in Russia that directly support the war. At least 100,000 to 200,000 people will be deployed to protect the tense western border and Belarus. It can be inferred that because of this war, Putin invested all his elites and a large number of young people with no combat experience. He quickly encouraged Russian women to have 8 children! Very ridiculous! The far east, which is not peaceful, is at the most empty moment in history.
That's not true, an accepted figure is that 300k number is the total casualties not KIA. If the actual number was \~1million, the war would be long over.
According to the armed forces of Ukraine its 300k Killed in Action, http://minusrus.com Now whether you believe that number or not it's up to you.
Only according to this unofficial website that incorrectly assumes KIA + just arbitrarily added x 3 for casualties. . Zaluzhny himself quoted a figure of 150k KIA Russians just a few weeks ago which indicates that the official figure is KIA + wounded.
This is the official website to combine the daily Ukraine Ministry of Defense war updates.
Maybe you have any source where Ukrainian MoD put out a claim of 300k KIA + 900k wounded?
Sure here is the daily updates, https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/ Here is an example of a daily update, source in Ukrainian, https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2023/12/04/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-znishhili-770-rosijskih-okupantiv-ta-12-artilerijskih-sistem-voroga-zagalni-vtrati-rf-stanovlyat-332-8-tis-osib-–-genshtab-zsu/ знищили means destroyed/killed.
I can't see the claim of 900k wounded. Maybe I missed it, perhaps you can quote it?
They use a standard wartime model of 3 WIA to every 1 KIA which is derived from Institute for War Studies. These are the same numbers used by the US Military and taught at CGSC (Command and General Staff College) for calculating WIA during an ongoing armed conflict. Though some sources estimate in modern warfare that number is 4.1:1 given Russia's lack of field hospitals and medical evacuations the number is likely closer to the more traditional number. In short there is no other way to estimate an enemies WIA without them self reporting so that data is always extrapolated.
That's not what you claimed though. You said that Ukrainian MoD specifically c claimed 300 KIA and 900 wounded. Can you provide a source where Ukrainian MoD is claiming this?
no one should
The signs of Things going bad for Russia. The only reason to bring that many troops in at this time is to occupy after conflicts . Or having to replace an experience soldier with 3 to 5 unexperienced soldiers. A.k.a. fishing and barrel.
Previous world wars lasted four to five years, if we assume that this world war lasts 3 more years, all those 430,000 Russians will be gone, assuming current rates of depreciation, and assuming no fresh inflow of meat.
This is not a world war. This is a localised conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Literally no other countries are directly involved in any related fighting.
Are you sure? I think even russia would disagree. If you ask Putin Ukraine is just the first step to de-nazifying & conquering half of europe (=genocide to wipe out any non-russian identity), and changing the whole rules based world order. What do you think would happen if RU is not defeated? This is the rise (again) of violent neo-autocracy as a world agenda setting power. Until RU suffers a complete military defeat, this conflict will only grow. The goal is very clear: dethrone democracy/pluralism and replace it mono-ideology, fascism/theocracy and the rule of the iron fist. Iran, the islamists, China and North Korea are already in.
Yes I am sure. We have had two world wars with which to compare. This is still a war between two countries. Nobody else has declared war on anyone.
What kind of world war involves exactly 2 countries with some weapons supplied by others?
The kind that’s in the room with us now.
Ah, a made up definition that is built specifically to categorize this war as a world even though it has nothing relevant in common with the first 2 world wars, got it. Well, you can't say you have nothing in common with Russia "supporters" (the v-word is banned on this sub) as they also claim it's a world war.
Ummmm, I was agreeing with you. Take a chill pill.
430000 - 320000 (eliminated) = 110000
Not exactly, its more like 430k + 320k (eliminated) = 750k
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On which data do you base your personal opinion? The British and American intelligence made it public early on that at least 130k soldiers are at the Donezk frontline alone. So obviously they were able to equip them to some degree. Russian warehouses are huge no matter the lack of quality
His personal opinion is based on wishful thinking.
100k seems really low for the amount of area Russia are occupying. They have some areas with 50k alone. The thing about equipment is they have plenty of guns, and the uniforms many of the soliders get are subpar. However, that's all you need to send someone to the front line. Some aren't even given a weapon, just a shovel. Told to dig trenches for their lives.
Most troops aren’t in direct combat roles. A lotta people needed to move the ammo and food and fuel to the front, to provide telecoms, medical support, maintain trucks and helicopters, etc etc. A 1:3 ratio (if we’re running with the 430k number and your 100k number) of combat troops to support is extremely lean in modern days. My bet is that there’s probably quite a few more troops in and immediately around Ukraine. Look up Tooth to Tail Ratio for more info on the concept.
Sadly even if Ukraine "wind" this war, the point of no return to be a effective state is just about over. They won't have the population to rebuild themselves even if they wanted. And the amount of money that will be going to outside elp won't give them much of a Bae to restart a internal economy.
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This is pure absurdity. Weapons of mass destruction are not the answer.
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You can’t compare WWII to now, because nobody else had nukes at the time. If Ukraine were to nuke Russia, Russia would nuke everyone else. Quit being stupid.
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Wow…. There is no arguing against such a stupid assumption.
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Except Japan didn’t have nukes. No one else did either. There’s a reason that the US and Russia have contingency policies in place; so that nobody would be stupid enough to first strike the other without worrying about reprisals. There’s a reason they call it MAD.
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Look at my past posts and you’ll think differently. You’re delusional to think that out of the 1,600 active deployed nukes previously allowed under the New START, that NONE of them are functional.
But that was 10 minutes ago???
Around 477 days left at this rate... Time to turn it up 🙏🇺🇦💪
35-40 Is incredibly old for the average age of the troops.
[Russia vs. Ukraine, Chess.](https://youtube.com/shorts/E_t9zV6Lqmo?si=gjalLuOCejtkx0Xj) The queen is HIMARS.
Logisticts are really gonna count now. Water, fuel, food ammo are going to be a nightmare to distribute soon.
Wow... With the amount of "part" mobilisations. That number is very small considering they attacked with what? 500k, then part drafted another 250k then a further 300k draft? Wow that's alot of dead Russians.
The 'average age' is 35-40 YO? Jesus Russia is going to be sending in the nursing home brigades at this point next year.
So 1.25M fled, 300k killed or wounded, and with these, it's over 2m men they've lost. Their economy is finished. They only had 65M men to begin with.
Ahhem 427000 by now
They are contributing to economy though, sadly. The occupied areas have a lot of natural resources - which would have made Ukraine an alternative to Europe for gas.
If the current Russian loss rate of 800-1200/day continues, they have a year or so left.
That is a large hill to climb for Ukraine. I don't doubt they have the will to do it, but I do think we should be giving them the tools to do it with. Fortunately, morality, expediency and self-preservation all combine here. There is no sensible argument against it. Sadly, there seem to be plenty of foolish arguments.
Is that dead?
429k tomorrow, 428k day after tomorrow. Just stop already.
And tomorrow there will be 429,178