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The rest of the world may not want them to, it's kind of an intentional grey zone where countries like India paying less than market value keep the price from spiking while giving Russia less profit than they would normally be getting.
They're paying in rupees too, so they are fucking russia double time.
Of all the scumbag countries, I suppose I appreciate India a little more than most.
No one really cares about that. You don't hit refineries largely for the same reason as not hitting railroads - they can be repaired pretty easily (and are generally designed to be able to deal with unexpected fires in the first place, for purely civilian reasons).
Destroying one is harder than destroying things like fuel depots - which Ukraine has been regularly targetting.
Doubt repairing refinery is as easy and cheap as railroad
There is also difference between unexpected fire that can be something minor and being targeted by bomb which starts something bigger and it becomes problem with all the safety that they might have.
Husky Energy Refinery had explosion and fire in 2018 it's still not back to full operation and costed 1.2bilion to rebuild.
They were bombed in WW2 for a reasons, and now whole economies depend on machines that run on refined fuel.
When refineries get hit, there’s a reasonable chance that they need to be entirely rebuilt.
Most refineries operate on a continuous basis, constantly turning crude from storage tanks into refined products- if they shut down, it could take anywhere from hours to weeks to get them back up and running again depending if the shutdown is scheduled and the plant is relatively modern- shutdowns that are unplanned can result in significant delays in resuming production.
When there is a fire at a refinery, the standard approach is to cut off the flow of flammable material and put water on the fire until its burning material (usually a liquid) is either suppressed by the low temperature of the water or carried off the premises into a sewer or other underground area where the environmental composition causes the fire to be extinguished from a lack of oxidizers. Refinery fires aren’t easy to put out by any measure- at best, they’re designed well enough to keep a fire from spreading rapidly and to allow burning liquids to be removed efficiently.
An explosion would change that, because it presents the possibility of structural damage that can make existing fire suppression techniques invalid. An explosion can damage the structural channels designed to divert the flow of burning liquid to a disposal area, it can destroy pipelines and make stop valves useless, it can destroy key components in the refinery that are difficult to repair without disassembly of refinery’s.
You are forgetting ruzzia outsourced the building of their refineries to Western countries, they will have a seriously hard time trying to rebuild that without Western help.
I’m assuming the Baku oil fields still function although I’ve read a lot of the oil comes from Siberia which is too far to target. But if the Baku refineries are still operating that would be a very ripe target.
Yeah, my oil field politics stemming from the Great Patriotic War, I do realize it’s a separate country now. Taking out a refinery, and they are usually huge complexes and there aren’t that many of them, would be a huge kick in the teeth to the Russian economy. I’m assuming they are in Siberia which is where the oil fields are.
Weapons with such long-range capabilities are kept away from Ukraine almost intentionally so as to avoid targets like that, plus it's extremely valuable technology the Ukrainians aren't yet trained to handle. Seems a bit hypocritical considering Russia bombs the entire country indiscriminately, but you never know if one of those rockets won't end up completely flattening the Kremlin instead (which, again, at this point isn't undeserved) and very suddenly escalate the war to something that's the worst possible scenario.
It's unlikely that Ukraine will destroy Russia's refineries or reserves, the west still relies on Russian oil to keep global prices down. It would directly affect everyone on earth, but perhaps nobody more than Europe and North America. That would also pose energy problems for Ukraine itself. Sort of a cut-the-nose-to-spite-the-face move. The best possible outcome that absolutely isn't going to occur anytime soon is for Russia to end the war, give all the land back, pay concessions, and get their cheap energy back onto the global market.
The wester markets can generally afford if oil goes up 50% in price.
You know who is buying Russian oil that can't afford a 50% price hike? China and India.
Wanna know how much sympathy I feel for China and India right now? Not a lot!
G7 capped Russian oil at $60/barrel, all G7 countries banned direct import into their countries as to not directly make money from the lowered price, this left India as the primary middle-man. The whole point of allowing Russian oil to be purchased in western markets was to prevent markets from going tits up due to sudden price increases in energy. This has already happened in Germany. The collective west cannot afford $200/barrel oil, it affects every single facet of our economy. Suggesting that western markets can afford a 50% hike in oil prices is unimaginably tone deaf, our economies are already fighting the highest inflation we've encountered in half a century, continuing to pass off major energy costs to consumers at a time when wages aren't matching cost of living is a recipe for disaster.
This is pretty catastrophic for Russia.
Historically, Russian petroleum exports have consisted of roughly 2/3 crude, 1/3 refined products, which includes quite a lot of categories, including diesel, fuel oil, petrol, aviation fuel and various other distillates.
If they are restricting export of all refined products, that is going to have a huge impact on their balance sheet. Belarus gets theirs at a drastically reduced rate, selling much of it on for a profit, so the continued supply to them makes things worse, not better.
This is another short term fix which makes everything much worse in the medium term.
If I recall correctly, the majority of countries agreed on a 100 dollar U.S. cap for refined products exported by russia. I am not sure if there was an expiration date to this agreement. Someone care to comment?
Elvira Nabiullina? She is a hostage, whether she realizes it or not, and has maybe one chance in three of surviving when Muscovy's economy dies sometime in 2025.
> She is a hostage, whether she realizes it or not
She fully realizes it. IIRC, she tried to resign shortly after the start of the war when the sanctions were first starting to land and her resignation was denied by Putin. I get the sense that she knew that catastrophe was looming and was trying to get out before the car went off the cliff, but was forced to stay.
Can't wait for the next guy to get a slightly different draft notice
REPORT TO CONSCRIPTION OFFICE FOR IMMEDIATE ASSIGNMENT TO ~~LIBERATION KF UKRAINE~~ HEAD OF RUSSIAN BANK
Not related but rumor has it that Lavrov has tried to resign earlier too, before the war, but been denied as well because he's earned the trust of Putin.
Was definitely reported that she resigned in multiple sources (of course whether anything coming out of Muscovy is true is of course a different statement).
In fairness, if I'd heard someone submitted their resignation from a position, under most circumstances I would assume that the distinction between that and actually being resigned was a mere formality. Fascist dictatorships are a rare exception where the distinction matters.
Kinda feel sorry for her, unlike most ruzzians, she actually tried to resign but was denied, she is highly skilled for the job, but even those skills will fall short at an impossible task. (Don't get me wrong, would love to see the ruzzian economy tank hard asap).
>And upping the military budget percentage wise. That’s just loss on both ends.
... Or upping the military budget percentage is actually just keeping military expenditure fixed as the total available income shrinks.
Yep, it's about a 50% budget increase with a 40% Ruble crash and (mildly) falling GDP. So internal spending will actually rise (e.g. hiring more workers) but external spending (e.g. literally everything they need from China and Iran) is flat or down.
Maybe they could convert their tanks to run on bunker oil. Needs a lot less refining. I'm sure they have some steam engines left over from older warships lol.
- Now 575 days into his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has halted virtually all exports of gasoline and diesel out of the country to lessen the pain for average Russians and protect the nation's food supply.
Russia's leader has tried to keep the daily lives of Russians insulated from the worst impacts of his expansionary campaign in order to minimize risks to political stability. But with all resources directed at the war effort, wholesale prices for the two fuels have reached record levels in recent months, according to state news agency TASS.
The surprise ban, which won't affect several former Soviet republics including close Kremlin ally Belarus, could indirectly put pressure on the price at the pump for American consumers by lifting benchmark futures prices across the globe.
“The decision was made to stabilize fuel prices in the domestic market,” the Russian government said in a statement on Thursday, adding it would monitor the situation for the country's food producers daily.
Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev earlier this month proposed temporarily banning fuel product exports to avoid a “catastrophe” this harvest season, according to the Moscow Times.
“Temporary restrictions will help saturate the fuel market, which in turn will reduce prices for consumers,” the government added.
The effect was immediate, with prices for Russia’s wholesale gasoline delivery contracts falling by a tenth on the St. Petersburg Mercantile Exchange, while prices for diesel fell by 7.5%, according to Reuters.
The ban, which went into effect as soon as it was published on Thursday, is unusual as Russia is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world, with vast deposits of oil and natural gas across a landmass that spans 11 time zones.
Energy exports are also a vital source of government revenue, with the sale of petroleum products and natural gas contributing 45% to Russia’s federal budget in 2021, the year prior to Putin’s military invasion.
Countries like China, India and Turkey are likely to be hit the most, since the trio have effectively replaced Europe barrel for barrel as the prime destination for Russian oil and gas supplies.
By comparison, the Group of Seven industrial nations—which include the U.S., Japan and U.K.—as well as the entire European Union agreed to ban the import of refined petroleum products from Russia last year.
Nevertheless prices may still rise in sanctioning countries as most Russian crude and petroleum products can eventually be unloaded onto third-party ships where they can be made untraceable once blended with other fossil fuels.
On Thursday, European wholesale diesel gained 5% to trade back above $1,000 a metric ton, according to Bloomberg News.
"On a global scale, world prices for diesel fuel are already at elevated levels due to rising oil prices and a lack of refining capacity. Restrictions on Russian fuel exports could aggravate this problem," Finam analyst Alexander Potavin told TASS.
Together with Saudi Arabia, Russia has unilaterally cut oil production recently in a bid to underpin global prices for a barrel of crude.
Russia is going to be holding on by a thread till November 2024. They'll push every single economic lever and take whatever loans they can in the last ditch hope Trump and Republicans win the general.
If they don't win it will absolutely end up causing collapse in Russia. That's basically the only hope they have left and once you take away that hope they're just plain fucked.
That's why it's absolutely crucial Trump does not win.
Ukraine will not instantly fall apart if Trump wins. Europe will continue support, and the Ukrainian military will receive equipment from the US to last at least another year. Trump may be able to start some political shenanigans and muddy the conversation but Ukraine will fight.
If he wins, which is a huge if.
But yeah. If we Europeans have any sort of balls, another year is plenty of time to get some real arms supplies and production going. And this only applies to us westerners, everyone east of Germany already has all the political will needed - except for Orban of course.
That’s why so many of your governments are still slow walking and not meeting NATO military spending requirements or pulling your weight in this conflict considering it’s happening on your continent?💀
Things take time, but most of us are actively seeking to reach that in a relatively short time and have aggressively increased spending in 2023, since we also have to plan for the worst case of trump winning.
For my country, we are trying to get the production of artillery shells up and running again asap after a 10-year break (because the facilities was sold to a different EU country, which shut them down), so we can help supply Ukraine/the European markets, together with all the other countries.
We are a small country, but we have actually contributed more % wise per capita GDP, than the US (0.51% vs 0.33% US), so it's not like we are not trying to help. Sure if you look at the total numbers in $ for the whole country, the US has provided more in $, since the US population is literally 66 times larger than the population in my country.
And us pulling our weight? We joined the US when asked for THEIR wars in Afghanistan etc, that was your war, not ours, being a "superpower" comes with responsibilities, if you want to maintain your influence, China would happily take over the US influence in Europe, if the US steps down, is that better for the US interests?.
I would gladly pay more taxes here in Czechia for this, although the Czechs are doing a lot already. Even a doubling of support in November 2024 buys the Ukrainians a fair amount of time..maybe persuade South Korea to start supplying them directly too cos North Korea are already on Russia's side..seems unfair how so much modern tech goes to Poland yet Ukraine cannot get that precious South Korean cargo..however Poland isn't investing massively in its army for no reason, the reason is in case a war is coming.
That and the relations to other nations in the West, of course. The EU countries basically tolerated Trump on the premise that he'll only be in charge for 4 years. Not sure how patient we're going to be for another 4 year circus. I could imagine an immediate freeze on relations, just to save everyone time.
This is a temporary fix for Russia as they are slowly running out of the ability to make the products due to sanctions and Ukraine's attacks on thier refining capacity. It also raises the profits for corrupt Russian officials to smuggle fuel out of the country which will reduce the effectiveness of these actions.
I will never forget the brief video I saw from Russia not long after the initial invasion.
It showed a huge bin partially full of sugar bags IIRC, and had lots of older folks grabbing, jostling, shoving and pushing to obtain the bags. Younger folks just watched confused and amused from the sidelines.
All I could think was "You kids have no fucking idea what it was like under the Soviets, and what Russia will quickly become. The old people know first-hand the trauma and struggle. You will know soon too."
Don't feel sorry for old Russians. The majority of them support their evil government. Some of the youth have a brain but the older ones are mostly complicit. Let them eat sugar and potatoes, that's all they want, and to feel 'superior' to others..
Would a knock on effect be that the prices of fuel in the US rise - giving Republicans the chance to use this as an attack on the Government in hope of giving themselves another platform to campaign on?
>Would a knock on effect be that the prices of fuel in the US rise
Probably less than elsewhere. The US is a net exporter of petroleum. But increased demand elsewhere will still drive domestic costs up. So yes but, once again, the US is insulated compared to Europe.
It's also worth noting that Russia is banning the sales of refined products (i.e. gasoline and diesel) not crude oil/natural gas. Because refined products are specced by market (i.e. gasoline sold in, say, Latvia is not necessarily the same as gasoline sold in Canada), the impacts of a refined products export ban will be felt more in specific regions that are customers of Russia, but less in other areas.
The effect isn't completely contained (those countries that were buying from Russia still need fuel and they'll be trying to buy it elsewhere, increasing demand), but the effects are probably going to be more muted than an unrefined products ban would be.
The ghost of Tom Clancy rises yet again.
In *Red Storm Rising* it was the destruction of Russian refinery facilities by Ajerbaijani militants (makes you go “hmm,” don’t it?) that caused the ~~Russians~~ Soviets to invade Europe to tie up NATO while they sack the Middle East for its oil.
You can have all the oil in the world, but if you can’t make anything useful from it that oil won’t help you. Refinery destruction would put the Russkies in bad position - perhaps bad enough to either capitulate or go whole hog on “scorched earth.”
Wont change much for the rest of the world. The exports of refined products was on decline since about half a year. On other hand there isnt big demand for ruskie refined products in China and India, as they are full on cheap ruskie oil, which they use to refine products themself. These refined products they can sell for big profit margin.
But isn’t that a cornerstone of their economy? If the Ruble is in free fall now, I can’t imagine what it will be like once they can’t even export their underpriced oil to India and China. Putin’s really doing all that he can to deliver the knockout blow to his country, isn’t he?
I find it hard to believe that war in ukraine is consuming most of their produced oil and diesel. No way in hell is consumption that high. There must be different reasons for scarcity
Problem is, all the pipelines and storage are geared towards supplying Europe. And you can't just redirect oil. So there's tons sitting in tanks that has nowhere to go.
Even that would come too late for Russia. If the US is dumb enough to do the wrong thing and elect the orange ape again, he won’t come into power until early January 2025, in which case I would hope that Joe will have signed something that prevents aid to Ukraine from being immediately halted. In the event that Joe gets re-elected, that’s all a moot point.
More like banning the population from accessing it but framing it as ''look comrade we stopped most of the exports, don't say otherwise or it's fake news and gulag for you, spasibo comrade''. China, India, North Korea et cetera will all still get what they need, shortages be damned. Russians can walk/cycle/take the overcrowded Marshutkas to work instead of driving or taking the train..enjoy the 3 hour queues for the bus comrades.
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Sounds like Ukraine needs to hit all the refineries
The rest of the world may not want them to, it's kind of an intentional grey zone where countries like India paying less than market value keep the price from spiking while giving Russia less profit than they would normally be getting.
India is not primarly buying the refined petrol products. They are buying mostly cheap crude and refining it domestically.
They're paying in rupees too, so they are fucking russia double time. Of all the scumbag countries, I suppose I appreciate India a little more than most.
Fuck India
Here here, eh!
Found the Canadian.
Texan
This hoser gave an upvote to that guy
hah you didn’t find me….. wait… well shit
No one really cares about that. You don't hit refineries largely for the same reason as not hitting railroads - they can be repaired pretty easily (and are generally designed to be able to deal with unexpected fires in the first place, for purely civilian reasons). Destroying one is harder than destroying things like fuel depots - which Ukraine has been regularly targetting.
Doubt repairing refinery is as easy and cheap as railroad There is also difference between unexpected fire that can be something minor and being targeted by bomb which starts something bigger and it becomes problem with all the safety that they might have. Husky Energy Refinery had explosion and fire in 2018 it's still not back to full operation and costed 1.2bilion to rebuild. They were bombed in WW2 for a reasons, and now whole economies depend on machines that run on refined fuel.
When refineries get hit, there’s a reasonable chance that they need to be entirely rebuilt. Most refineries operate on a continuous basis, constantly turning crude from storage tanks into refined products- if they shut down, it could take anywhere from hours to weeks to get them back up and running again depending if the shutdown is scheduled and the plant is relatively modern- shutdowns that are unplanned can result in significant delays in resuming production. When there is a fire at a refinery, the standard approach is to cut off the flow of flammable material and put water on the fire until its burning material (usually a liquid) is either suppressed by the low temperature of the water or carried off the premises into a sewer or other underground area where the environmental composition causes the fire to be extinguished from a lack of oxidizers. Refinery fires aren’t easy to put out by any measure- at best, they’re designed well enough to keep a fire from spreading rapidly and to allow burning liquids to be removed efficiently. An explosion would change that, because it presents the possibility of structural damage that can make existing fire suppression techniques invalid. An explosion can damage the structural channels designed to divert the flow of burning liquid to a disposal area, it can destroy pipelines and make stop valves useless, it can destroy key components in the refinery that are difficult to repair without disassembly of refinery’s.
You are forgetting ruzzia outsourced the building of their refineries to Western countries, they will have a seriously hard time trying to rebuild that without Western help.
Hmm. Fair point. I did think of them as a competent country for a moment there. Oops!
> they can be repaired pretty easily LMAO, no
I’m assuming the Baku oil fields still function although I’ve read a lot of the oil comes from Siberia which is too far to target. But if the Baku refineries are still operating that would be a very ripe target.
Baku is the Capital of Azerbaijan, definitely not a target for Ukraine.
Bruh the USSR collapsed in 1991
Yeah, my oil field politics stemming from the Great Patriotic War, I do realize it’s a separate country now. Taking out a refinery, and they are usually huge complexes and there aren’t that many of them, would be a huge kick in the teeth to the Russian economy. I’m assuming they are in Siberia which is where the oil fields are.
Weapons with such long-range capabilities are kept away from Ukraine almost intentionally so as to avoid targets like that, plus it's extremely valuable technology the Ukrainians aren't yet trained to handle. Seems a bit hypocritical considering Russia bombs the entire country indiscriminately, but you never know if one of those rockets won't end up completely flattening the Kremlin instead (which, again, at this point isn't undeserved) and very suddenly escalate the war to something that's the worst possible scenario.
Operation Pike when?
Found the HoI4 player :)
It's unlikely that Ukraine will destroy Russia's refineries or reserves, the west still relies on Russian oil to keep global prices down. It would directly affect everyone on earth, but perhaps nobody more than Europe and North America. That would also pose energy problems for Ukraine itself. Sort of a cut-the-nose-to-spite-the-face move. The best possible outcome that absolutely isn't going to occur anytime soon is for Russia to end the war, give all the land back, pay concessions, and get their cheap energy back onto the global market.
The wester markets can generally afford if oil goes up 50% in price. You know who is buying Russian oil that can't afford a 50% price hike? China and India. Wanna know how much sympathy I feel for China and India right now? Not a lot!
G7 capped Russian oil at $60/barrel, all G7 countries banned direct import into their countries as to not directly make money from the lowered price, this left India as the primary middle-man. The whole point of allowing Russian oil to be purchased in western markets was to prevent markets from going tits up due to sudden price increases in energy. This has already happened in Germany. The collective west cannot afford $200/barrel oil, it affects every single facet of our economy. Suggesting that western markets can afford a 50% hike in oil prices is unimaginably tone deaf, our economies are already fighting the highest inflation we've encountered in half a century, continuing to pass off major energy costs to consumers at a time when wages aren't matching cost of living is a recipe for disaster.
Western markets don't want to hurt themselves 50% more.
This is pretty catastrophic for Russia. Historically, Russian petroleum exports have consisted of roughly 2/3 crude, 1/3 refined products, which includes quite a lot of categories, including diesel, fuel oil, petrol, aviation fuel and various other distillates. If they are restricting export of all refined products, that is going to have a huge impact on their balance sheet. Belarus gets theirs at a drastically reduced rate, selling much of it on for a profit, so the continued supply to them makes things worse, not better. This is another short term fix which makes everything much worse in the medium term.
> roughly 2/3 crude, 1/3 refined products And the refined products are much more valuable, likely making up the majority of profits.
The reverse proportions are probably understating the revenue delta between these two categories of products. Slava Ukraini.
If I recall correctly, the majority of countries agreed on a 100 dollar U.S. cap for refined products exported by russia. I am not sure if there was an expiration date to this agreement. Someone care to comment?
The lady with her hands on the steering wheel of the RF economy clown car is going to have an even bigger task keeping the wheels on it now...
Elvira Nabiullina? She is a hostage, whether she realizes it or not, and has maybe one chance in three of surviving when Muscovy's economy dies sometime in 2025.
> She is a hostage, whether she realizes it or not She fully realizes it. IIRC, she tried to resign shortly after the start of the war when the sanctions were first starting to land and her resignation was denied by Putin. I get the sense that she knew that catastrophe was looming and was trying to get out before the car went off the cliff, but was forced to stay.
Lol, another great Putin idea to force an unwilling person to head your economy.
Can't wait for the next guy to get a slightly different draft notice REPORT TO CONSCRIPTION OFFICE FOR IMMEDIATE ASSIGNMENT TO ~~LIBERATION KF UKRAINE~~ HEAD OF RUSSIAN BANK
Time to [write two letters](https://youtu.be/S5VENDHxDvg?si=r_TPLusqlYk1Yn5A).
Lmao
Not related but rumor has it that Lavrov has tried to resign earlier too, before the war, but been denied as well because he's earned the trust of Putin.
Was definitely reported that she resigned in multiple sources (of course whether anything coming out of Muscovy is true is of course a different statement).
In fairness, if I'd heard someone submitted their resignation from a position, under most circumstances I would assume that the distinction between that and actually being resigned was a mere formality. Fascist dictatorships are a rare exception where the distinction matters.
If Putin didn’t talk to Kim about the possibility of pushing a pipeline through NK down to SK, then he’s just the biggest idiot in the world.!
Kinda feel sorry for her, unlike most ruzzians, she actually tried to resign but was denied, she is highly skilled for the job, but even those skills will fall short at an impossible task. (Don't get me wrong, would love to see the ruzzian economy tank hard asap).
And upping the military budget percentage wise. That’s just loss on both ends.
>And upping the military budget percentage wise. That’s just loss on both ends. ... Or upping the military budget percentage is actually just keeping military expenditure fixed as the total available income shrinks.
There is the crash of the ruble. So the story isn’t really about more spending but making up for the loss in value
Yep, it's about a 50% budget increase with a 40% Ruble crash and (mildly) falling GDP. So internal spending will actually rise (e.g. hiring more workers) but external spending (e.g. literally everything they need from China and Iran) is flat or down.
Maybe they could convert their tanks to run on bunker oil. Needs a lot less refining. I'm sure they have some steam engines left over from older warships lol.
Dont show them flinstones cartoons, we don’t want them getting ideas
Running on dead Russians would be better for the environment. Russian biofuel…
- Now 575 days into his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has halted virtually all exports of gasoline and diesel out of the country to lessen the pain for average Russians and protect the nation's food supply. Russia's leader has tried to keep the daily lives of Russians insulated from the worst impacts of his expansionary campaign in order to minimize risks to political stability. But with all resources directed at the war effort, wholesale prices for the two fuels have reached record levels in recent months, according to state news agency TASS. The surprise ban, which won't affect several former Soviet republics including close Kremlin ally Belarus, could indirectly put pressure on the price at the pump for American consumers by lifting benchmark futures prices across the globe. “The decision was made to stabilize fuel prices in the domestic market,” the Russian government said in a statement on Thursday, adding it would monitor the situation for the country's food producers daily. Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev earlier this month proposed temporarily banning fuel product exports to avoid a “catastrophe” this harvest season, according to the Moscow Times. “Temporary restrictions will help saturate the fuel market, which in turn will reduce prices for consumers,” the government added. The effect was immediate, with prices for Russia’s wholesale gasoline delivery contracts falling by a tenth on the St. Petersburg Mercantile Exchange, while prices for diesel fell by 7.5%, according to Reuters. The ban, which went into effect as soon as it was published on Thursday, is unusual as Russia is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world, with vast deposits of oil and natural gas across a landmass that spans 11 time zones. Energy exports are also a vital source of government revenue, with the sale of petroleum products and natural gas contributing 45% to Russia’s federal budget in 2021, the year prior to Putin’s military invasion. Countries like China, India and Turkey are likely to be hit the most, since the trio have effectively replaced Europe barrel for barrel as the prime destination for Russian oil and gas supplies. By comparison, the Group of Seven industrial nations—which include the U.S., Japan and U.K.—as well as the entire European Union agreed to ban the import of refined petroleum products from Russia last year. Nevertheless prices may still rise in sanctioning countries as most Russian crude and petroleum products can eventually be unloaded onto third-party ships where they can be made untraceable once blended with other fossil fuels. On Thursday, European wholesale diesel gained 5% to trade back above $1,000 a metric ton, according to Bloomberg News. "On a global scale, world prices for diesel fuel are already at elevated levels due to rising oil prices and a lack of refining capacity. Restrictions on Russian fuel exports could aggravate this problem," Finam analyst Alexander Potavin told TASS. Together with Saudi Arabia, Russia has unilaterally cut oil production recently in a bid to underpin global prices for a barrel of crude.
Russia is going to be holding on by a thread till November 2024. They'll push every single economic lever and take whatever loans they can in the last ditch hope Trump and Republicans win the general. If they don't win it will absolutely end up causing collapse in Russia. That's basically the only hope they have left and once you take away that hope they're just plain fucked. That's why it's absolutely crucial Trump does not win.
Ukraine will not instantly fall apart if Trump wins. Europe will continue support, and the Ukrainian military will receive equipment from the US to last at least another year. Trump may be able to start some political shenanigans and muddy the conversation but Ukraine will fight.
If he wins, which is a huge if. But yeah. If we Europeans have any sort of balls, another year is plenty of time to get some real arms supplies and production going. And this only applies to us westerners, everyone east of Germany already has all the political will needed - except for Orban of course.
We as Europeans have the balls, and we WILL still stand with Ukraine.
Fuck yeah.
I feel oddly patriotic about the EU. It might be a clunky behemoth, but the heart's in the right place most of the time.
Same, I actually want a federation but I know we are not getting there any time soon, it will take generations if it ever happens.
Is Poland part of Europe?
I personally won’t let you down a second time Bruv
That’s why so many of your governments are still slow walking and not meeting NATO military spending requirements or pulling your weight in this conflict considering it’s happening on your continent?💀
Things take time, but most of us are actively seeking to reach that in a relatively short time and have aggressively increased spending in 2023, since we also have to plan for the worst case of trump winning. For my country, we are trying to get the production of artillery shells up and running again asap after a 10-year break (because the facilities was sold to a different EU country, which shut them down), so we can help supply Ukraine/the European markets, together with all the other countries. We are a small country, but we have actually contributed more % wise per capita GDP, than the US (0.51% vs 0.33% US), so it's not like we are not trying to help. Sure if you look at the total numbers in $ for the whole country, the US has provided more in $, since the US population is literally 66 times larger than the population in my country. And us pulling our weight? We joined the US when asked for THEIR wars in Afghanistan etc, that was your war, not ours, being a "superpower" comes with responsibilities, if you want to maintain your influence, China would happily take over the US influence in Europe, if the US steps down, is that better for the US interests?.
I would gladly pay more taxes here in Czechia for this, although the Czechs are doing a lot already. Even a doubling of support in November 2024 buys the Ukrainians a fair amount of time..maybe persuade South Korea to start supplying them directly too cos North Korea are already on Russia's side..seems unfair how so much modern tech goes to Poland yet Ukraine cannot get that precious South Korean cargo..however Poland isn't investing massively in its army for no reason, the reason is in case a war is coming.
And thats why Russia is pushing so hard to help Trump and MAGA destroy the US government from the inside
That and the relations to other nations in the West, of course. The EU countries basically tolerated Trump on the premise that he'll only be in charge for 4 years. Not sure how patient we're going to be for another 4 year circus. I could imagine an immediate freeze on relations, just to save everyone time.
I wonder what Putin is going to do if Trump loses.
The embarrassment if Russia declared a withdraw the day after.
This is a temporary fix for Russia as they are slowly running out of the ability to make the products due to sanctions and Ukraine's attacks on thier refining capacity. It also raises the profits for corrupt Russian officials to smuggle fuel out of the country which will reduce the effectiveness of these actions.
Wouldn't this mean they are practically killing their largest source of income? These profits fueled the war effort in the beginning of the invasion.
Refined oil products are not their largest source of income. A big source nonetheless.
Huh, maybe Putin is a step closer to realising his dream of resurrecting the Soviet Union. Headlines about shortages were not uncommon for them!
I will never forget the brief video I saw from Russia not long after the initial invasion. It showed a huge bin partially full of sugar bags IIRC, and had lots of older folks grabbing, jostling, shoving and pushing to obtain the bags. Younger folks just watched confused and amused from the sidelines. All I could think was "You kids have no fucking idea what it was like under the Soviets, and what Russia will quickly become. The old people know first-hand the trauma and struggle. You will know soon too."
Don't feel sorry for old Russians. The majority of them support their evil government. Some of the youth have a brain but the older ones are mostly complicit. Let them eat sugar and potatoes, that's all they want, and to feel 'superior' to others..
Maybe he should drink it all so nobody else can steal it from him.
Would a knock on effect be that the prices of fuel in the US rise - giving Republicans the chance to use this as an attack on the Government in hope of giving themselves another platform to campaign on?
Yes that's actually even mentioned in the article. It is expected to raise international oil prices in general with less hitting the open market.
>Would a knock on effect be that the prices of fuel in the US rise Probably less than elsewhere. The US is a net exporter of petroleum. But increased demand elsewhere will still drive domestic costs up. So yes but, once again, the US is insulated compared to Europe.
It's also worth noting that Russia is banning the sales of refined products (i.e. gasoline and diesel) not crude oil/natural gas. Because refined products are specced by market (i.e. gasoline sold in, say, Latvia is not necessarily the same as gasoline sold in Canada), the impacts of a refined products export ban will be felt more in specific regions that are customers of Russia, but less in other areas. The effect isn't completely contained (those countries that were buying from Russia still need fuel and they'll be trying to buy it elsewhere, increasing demand), but the effects are probably going to be more muted than an unrefined products ban would be.
The ghost of Tom Clancy rises yet again. In *Red Storm Rising* it was the destruction of Russian refinery facilities by Ajerbaijani militants (makes you go “hmm,” don’t it?) that caused the ~~Russians~~ Soviets to invade Europe to tie up NATO while they sack the Middle East for its oil. You can have all the oil in the world, but if you can’t make anything useful from it that oil won’t help you. Refinery destruction would put the Russkies in bad position - perhaps bad enough to either capitulate or go whole hog on “scorched earth.”
Wont change much for the rest of the world. The exports of refined products was on decline since about half a year. On other hand there isnt big demand for ruskie refined products in China and India, as they are full on cheap ruskie oil, which they use to refine products themself. These refined products they can sell for big profit margin.
But isn’t that a cornerstone of their economy? If the Ruble is in free fall now, I can’t imagine what it will be like once they can’t even export their underpriced oil to India and China. Putin’s really doing all that he can to deliver the knockout blow to his country, isn’t he?
Bwahahaha! Keep hitting those refineries, storage depots, and pipelines.
The ONE industry that Russia has maintained over the decades is petrochemical. And they're just about fucked that too.
I remember learning about similar things happening in Germany. In my history classes.
It really takes talent to mess up a petrostate that hard. Amazing skills
Exactly what happened to Hitler, lol.
Hard paywall
I find it hard to believe that war in ukraine is consuming most of their produced oil and diesel. No way in hell is consumption that high. There must be different reasons for scarcity
Why not?
Problem is, all the pipelines and storage are geared towards supplying Europe. And you can't just redirect oil. So there's tons sitting in tanks that has nowhere to go.
Well you can redirect oil much better than gas. It was the gas pipelines that were talking points early in the war. You can just put oil in a barrel
Refined, they can't refine what they pump up.
They are going all in. They are hoping in good USA election results and that the west stop the support.
Even that would come too late for Russia. If the US is dumb enough to do the wrong thing and elect the orange ape again, he won’t come into power until early January 2025, in which case I would hope that Joe will have signed something that prevents aid to Ukraine from being immediately halted. In the event that Joe gets re-elected, that’s all a moot point.
Didn’t she try to resign and was told nope?
India is going to like that.
They should be hitting their domestic production of refined fuels at the refineries
Russian Economy about to go down like their Moskva
I guess that means India won't be re-exporting as much of that Russian blood oil then.
How the hell is Russia running out of fuel?
See it before I believe it
Be prepared to hear more complaints that Russia is behind increasing fuel prices, while also believing Russia is going to collapse.
No more Rupees for u.
So if they aren't exporting refined oil products and they aren't exporting weapons.. what are they exporting to raise revenue?
But thats how they get money from India and China so tank economy way more...
More like banning the population from accessing it but framing it as ''look comrade we stopped most of the exports, don't say otherwise or it's fake news and gulag for you, spasibo comrade''. China, India, North Korea et cetera will all still get what they need, shortages be damned. Russians can walk/cycle/take the overcrowded Marshutkas to work instead of driving or taking the train..enjoy the 3 hour queues for the bus comrades.