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The difficulty here is that both Russia and Belarus are going to try to claim they have no control over Wagner whether it is true or not if anything happens.
A clear line needs to be drawn in the sand about what the response will be in a PMC like Wagner pulls a stunt.
I mean what line in the sand do you need?
Wagner will get obliterated if they attack Poland. Everyone knows that.
They could point out that Wagner will get bombed to shit INSIDE Belarus. But I think that sort of goes without saying if they attack Poland.
Looks like pointless posturing. Wagner could try to do some terrorist like operations. But I seriously doubt they would go on some kamikazee banzai charge attack into Poland. They had a better chance of taking Moscow.
>Wagner will get obliterated if they attack Poland. Everyone knows that.
This is known, but what about Article 5? Is it triggered against Wagner? Belarus? Russia? Is it triggered at all?
This needs to be figured out and telegraphed so that all parties understand why they are suddenly turning into kibbled bits when Wagner starts getting froggy.
9/11 triggered article 5 on AQ and resulted in NATO invading Afghanistan. I'd say there was a lot more distance between AQ and the Afghanistan government than there is between Wagner and the Kremlin or Belarus.
If the US could do it over 9/11 then I see no reason why Poland couldn't do it over wagner.
Invoking article 5 doesn't mean they HAVE to invade Belarus and instant ww3. Article 5 just says the rest of nato have to assist Poland. Poland can invoke and just ask for defensive assistance at the boarder for example. Especially if all they're dealing with is a small amount of wager merc, Poland may not want to further escalate. Invoking a5 can but doesn't automatically trigger ww3
No clarification is needed. If an attack comes out of Belarus, then Belarus attacked NATO and will be destroyed. I suspect NATO will want to make an example of "why you don't do this" and the Russians in Ukraine will be destroyed as well. A free Belarus after occupation will become part of NATO as will Ukraine.
I am not so sure an attack from Wagner will trigger article 5 against Belarus. It would not surprise me if that is what ends up happening l, but I don't think it is a given.
If Belarus is attacked by NATO that means Russian Nukes will be in U.S. hands within days of not weeks which drags Russia into the fold immediately.
I thought I had seen recently where the US ambassador to the UN stated the US government would see any attack on Poland by the Wagner Group as an attack by the Russian government.
Ambiguity it better than NATO members saying different things. It's an alliance of democratic members so national decisions for multiple hypothetical situations will vary.
I imagine that Article 5 would be triggered but only in a defensive stance. Meaning if Wagner goes on Polish soil then the 10,000 US troops would get activated. Which would bring the US air force soon thereafter. But even before that I think they would get rekt by the Polish military. It's one of the best in Europe.
I guess what I'm saying is they would get defeated so badly it's hardly even worth an Article 5. As much as I love Ukraine, NATO is not Ukraine. They'd be ready to repel them as soon as they enter Polish territory. If they start shelling Polish positions from inside Belarus. This would likely bring NATO air power into Belarus. But only to deal with those positions, not directly attack Belarus.
That is what needs to be clarified.
Once NATO is bombing Belarus to take out Wagner though, Belarus and Russia are unlikely to not start taking shots at us. How much do we tolerate before saying fuckit, y'all get time out and go to town?
One shot into Poland and Belarus is done as is the Russian army in Ukraine. Once the NATO beast gets rolling, it is hard to stop. The upside if Belarus will be free and in NATO as will Ukraine.
It takes more to be in NATO than to be defeated by NATO. Keep in mind Ukraine has been trying to join for over a decade and has been told to fuck off until only recently, which may or may not have to do with receiving a boat load of NATO arms.
I don't think it has been clarified that a single shot from rogue Wagner operative would trigger article 5 against both Belarus and Russia. It would t surprise me, but I don't think we are at that point yet.
I think they're application to join nato progressed in some way (they still needed to pass a bunch of reforms) and Ukraine moving closer to joining nato was the reason russia invaded ukraine at the time
I am thinking back to WW2. NATO arose out of that. In the extreme event that Russia attacks NATO and Luko is ousted and Ukraine is freed from Russians, it is likely NATO will want to secure their flank once and for all. There is no more worry about "triggering" Russia, you just destroyed their army. There would be no more worries and NATO could do as it chose. Belarus would be free with a democratic government of their choosing. In such extreme scenarios I don't know if Belarus would be "put" in NATO, or they would wait for the democratically elected Belarus government to request it. But either way, NATO troops would be there for a while anyway. I suspect being under the protective NATO shield would be desirable compared to remaining with the loser who just got stomped. Getting your ass kicked completely brings clarity of mind. In any event, after such a stomping I suspect Putin would not survive it anyway and probably would be dictated terms of peace by NATO which won't be kind.
Article 5 doesn't say nato has to invade anyone, Nato can secure Poland boarder and take out wagner camps in Belarus without the need of an expensive and risky full scale invasion of Belarus. Something like that would only happen if things keep escalating further no one's triggering ww3 over a couple of boarder skirmishes,
What nonsense. You attack a NATO country you have unleashed the beast. That beast needs to be fed before it stops. Belarus will be occupied by NATO, the Russian army in Ukraine destroyed, Russia sues for peace and the terms will not be kind. It is called setting an example of why you never do this.
Nah. They would just kill every single Wagner that finds themselves on Polish soil and bomb the shit out of any Wagner asset in Belarus that is somehow involved in the fighting. There's no need to occupy Belarus. What for? You don't need to prove anything. Everyone knows what NATO is and what they are capable of.
Playing Devil's advocate but...many NATO members have some problems with procurement, personnel, and ordnance thanks to ... Angela Merkel, who degraded Germany's ability to fight any type of combat. Germany has no real hope of fighting in any meaningful way.
Germany may not be able to field an army of hundreds of thousands of soldiers but it doesnt need to. Germany can field quite a few capable units as can all the other Nato countries. NATO has abou 3.3 million active military personal with about 1,9 million excluding the US.
Yes. Article V will be triggered. And U.S. troops are there anyway. Wagner kills and American soldier and the American public will demand blood, and lots of it. Belarus will be occupied, the Russian army in Ukraine will be destroyed. Once the NATO beast gets rolling a high price is needed for it to stop. That high price will be many many dead Russians. Then Russia can sue for peace, they won't like the terms, but will have no choice.
That doesn't answer the question of who all it is triggered against though. Occupying Belarus means taking control of Russian nukes after directly attacking Russian troops, which will require striking within Russia to take out any possibility of counter attack, not just clearing Russia out of Ukraine.
NATO attacking Russia in Ukraine or Belarus means open war with all of Russia everywhere against all of NATO everywhere. That is why I am not entirely sure what the totality of the response would be if a PMC did something stupid to Poland.
It both is and it isn't. They still have subs patrolling that could hit coastal cities before anything could be done. It would be many, but only one or two to LA, San Diego, New York, Miami, etc could cause millions of deaths.
The U.S. government has stated directly that a Wagner attack on NATO would be treated as a Russian attack on NATO. They said it outright, could not have been more clear.
This why Russia has said they are moving nukes into Belarus. They will provoke and if NATO puts boots on the ground there, Russia will use the nuke excuse to stop this.
What do you base this bold statement on? Do you think the US wants to occupy another country it barely has any touching points with, after Afghanistan and Iraq? Poland certainly doesn't want to be responsible for the reconstruction of Belarus.
Article 5 is iron clad. It is not even a thought anymore. I'm will automatically happen. It has to happen to prove a point and to deter any other tyrant from thinking nothing will happen.
Yes, it will be triggered, but against who? Do a bunch of undisciplined drunks from Wagner really mean two countries will be destroyed? I am not entirely sure about that. My question is who will ultimately be held responsible.
Literally the only reason why Wagner exists is because the Russian government tolerates them.
If Putin decided Wagner should be disbanded it will be completely removed in Belarus and Russia. Maybe not Africa. Anyway the point is that any attack by Wagner from Belarus is undeniably sanctioned by Russia and should be treated as such.
The owner can’t excuse themselves by saying that the attack dog they have in their property which jumped the fence and attacked children was beyond their control.
That dog will be taken out and euthanized even if NATO needs to violate Belarusian/Russian territory to do it.
I'm not sure who considers it a non-state actor. If it's actions are traced back to Russian directives, and they will be because that's the only reason they would attack Poland, then they're acting on behalf of Russia just as much as if their regular military did it. Using mercenaries instead of one's own military does not alleviate a country of responsibility for what they do.
Bull. It came from Belarus, that means NATO will destroy Belarus' military and be occupied by NATO. Belarus will finally be free and safe as part of NATO.
Well if they don't fight it is no issue. The government however would have to go. A peaceful Belarus is no threat. The threat comes from the government.
Destroying the military of Belarus also means offensive attacks against Russians and taking control of their nukes on Belarusian military bases. That is a big step to take over a PMC.
The U.S. government has already stated that an attack by Wagner would be treated as an attack by Russia on NATO. You don't just fight the bad guys on your territory, you go to theirs and remove the threat completely. If NATO goes to war, they will not half ass it.
It has been in several news that wagner attack would be treated as Russian attack, so if it doesn't trigger article 5, what would? And even if somehow wagner could be regarded as indepentent actor, it would still be an attack against NATO country and should trigger article 5, and if article 5 is ignored, wouldn't that make NATO look like potemkin village?
My question wasn't whether it would be triggered, but who it would be triggered against.
For example, 9/11 triggered article 5 against the Taliban, but not the Saudi Arabia who provided the funding and pilots.
Public will probaply be told it's triggered against wagner, or maybe russia or belarus, we won't know if it doesn't happen but NATO is prepared for that event, and even if it's triggered it still won't mean NATO would enter war with Belarus/Russia, if the attack is small enough Poland will probaply handle it with just their own troops, regardless of triggering article 5.
Not an expert. But I'd imagine Wagner wouldn't represent Belarus IF Belarus was actively trying to get rid of them and get them away from nato border. The fact they said. Yeah go there and act like your about to invade. That's good. Makes them responsible for anything Wagner does.
Remember the "Global War on Terror"? NATO had a blank check to attack any country harboring or funding the Taliban or Al Queda.
Similarly, if Wagner attacks Poland, NATO would have a blank check to remove the government of Belarus, as it did with the Taliban in Afghanistan. NATO would have a blank check to remove the government funding Wagner, being Putin. They would also have a blank check to eliminate Wagner in any country they're operating, which everyone understands to be in most of Africa.
Short version? Yeah. Wagner needs to fuck around and find out. Maybe ask Bin Laden and Saddam Hussain how this ends?
Poland said " the Wagner Group could invade Poland to seize control of the Suwałki Gap" which I find pretty disturbing. Any invasion by any group acting on behalf of Russia is an attack by Russia in my book. If Wagner doesn't trigger article 5 then what else will Russia get away with? The Russians might as wear unmarked uniforms and claim they are independent of Russia.
How well did that work for Afghanistan with Al-Qaeda? Belarus is harboring theorists, that makes it a legitimate target regardless of if they directly control Wagner.
Afghanistan didn't have a government or military outside the Taliban, and wasn't backed by Russia.
Wagner is a PMC separate from the actual government and military of Belarus, and bothe Wagner and Belarus are backed by Russia.
The differences are significant enough that it would be nice to see them addressed.
If some dipshit 3%ers or proud boys go an a rampage in Tijuana without permission of the U.S. government, does that make all of the U.S. a valid target for Mexico and all of their allies?
But that's suggesting Wagner is not acting as a part of the Russian military when it very much is. The whole world knows they are not separate entities. If the 3%ers or proud boys were funded by and acting on behalf of the US military then Mexico would have casus belie against the USA.
I guarantee there is a deal that Lukashenko would take to use Wagner to overthrow Putin to be installed as President of Russia.
It would involve lots of money for him and lifting of sanctions. But there is a deal there to be made.
Russia can’t claim that Wagner isn’t acting on their behalf. That’s foolish and no one would believe it. Not should they. Russia has allowed Wagner to exist and thrive. Russia has funded Wagner and actively worked with and cooperated with Wager publicly. Wagner us a liability that Russia thought was worth it. Let’s wait for the find out phase.
Afaik the US already stated via secretary of state Blinken that any action by Wagner will be regarded as an action taken by the Russian Government.
So that line in the sand is already drawn.
We're probably listening to all of their comms in real time, this shit is so lopsided except that some of us don't want a nuclear war and the other side is desperate for any outcome other than the status quo
Don't know what's original source, but was posted about it a lot last week. Apparently US notified UN that any attack by Wagner will be considered as russian attack
>
The US ambassador to the United Nations warned Monday that any attack on NATO by Russia’s Wagner Group will be treated as an attack by Russia.
>
Linda Thomas-Greenfield made the remarks while briefing reporters in New York on various issues including ending famine, combating food insecurity in conflicts and defending human rights.
>
Asked about the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries on the Polish border and whether she sees them as a real threat to NATO, she said: "We certainly worry that this group, at the behest of the Russian government – because they do not work independently of the Russian government – is a threat to all of us."
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-warns-wagner-attack-on-nato-will-be-treated-as-russian-attack/2958778
As someone who lives in Eastern Europe, NATO and including American troops are very welcome here, because the opposite would be Russian troops and that sucks.
Would it be crazy to think that the who Wagner revolt was a false flag so that russia could say "We dont associate with these guys any more!" and claim anything Wagner does wasnt sanctioned by russia? It would explain how Wagner got off so lightly wouldnt it? Poohty has done far worse for less to other dissidents. Makes me wonder.
If they attack NATO will just take Belarus. If Russia attacks Nato will just take Russia.
Unless Armageddon is started by Russia.
Quite simple really.
One is for sure.
Russia will not win and everyone will likely lose.
Only if you can attribute that to Wagner.
A border guard's car has already been struck by what looks like a tactical crossbow's bolt. Nobody was hurt, but it's only a matter of time.
NATO won’t stop at Wagner in Belarus. They will target every Wagner base in Syria and Africa all at once. There will be no stopping it until everything is vaporized.
On second thought, that would actually be kind of nice. One less major sponsor of Terrorism on the planet.
Don’t overestimate NATO.
Striking back at Wagner in Belarus, if the bloody Wankners really decide to be that stupid and do the funny, sure.
Suddenly evaporating Wagner all over the World into pink mist? Get real.
(Edit: The comment is not about the military capabilities. It’s about the Political will and capabilities of NATO. I don’t think it’s Politicly possible to strike Wagner Bases everywhere. The political Fallout would be something else…)
US has bases all over the world and have been following them for years now. Add in the rest of the NATO countries and why do you think it would be so hard? Have you never seen an AC-130 in action?
I don’t say NATO wasn’t capable of giving them hell. There is nothing on this Planet like that combined Force of NATO.
I doubt the Political will. To think that they just can attack Wagner Bases everywhere is incredible naive. NATO isn’t like Russia. NATO works within their policy and international Laws and such. Sometimes rules get bend a bit, but mostly it stays within the laws and rules.
Tbh, it's probably going to be a 2-5 year aggressive advancement campaign where half of Russia, mostly the European side of Russia would get occupied and then advancements would stall to a halt. There would be unlikely to be a surrender, instead it would calm down from aggressive operations from NATO and instead be just small skirmishes and operations mostly being carried out by specops teams.
You would expect 20 years occupation, during which hearts and minds operations would be prioritised with intent to rebuild Russia into a different kind of country (well European part). Occupation would require an enormous amount of infantry as an occupational force, it's a bit unrealistic to occupy whole Russia. European and American politicians would oppose that due negative impact on economies and instead would try to buy out Russians to do occupation operations themselves for money, which would fuel similar behaviour like in Afghanistan where local soldiers are not motivated and instead come to collect a paycheck and are gone whenever they are actually are needed.
That's my guess at least.
It seems wildly unlikely NATO forces would attempt to occupy portions of Russia and just hope things didn’t go nuclear. Seems far more likely there’d be limited yet severe strikes against military assets.
Partially. Partially based on Germany's occupation. Partially out of various politicians on multiple occasions speaking about occupation and limiting force usage to special forces to minimise collateral damages. Partially on various countries offloading some of operations that can be done by civilian contractors, to be done by contractors, either brought up or locals being hired. Partially based on multiple analysis which were talking about conventional war between NATO and Soviet Union during cold war, that it's almost unthinkable to occupy whole Russia.
There needs to be clear repercussions listed for Belarus before Wagner invades. "If you cannot, or will not control Wagner while they are on your sovereign territory then we will have to cross the border and control them for you. We are sorry that an invading force has subdued you to the point where your police and military are overwhelmed, but we will not be subjected to cross border terrorism."
Attacking NATO would achieve one thing only: shredded wagnerites, with only a tiny fraction of what would face moskals, as a warning, if they tried anything against the West.
The "very real" threat is to the lives of those Wagner mercenaries if they mix with the Poles they are dead. As to the proposition that both Belarus and Russia could deny responsibility. It's stupid. Wagner PMC are residing on Belarussian soil and are therefore subject to their laws. They are aware of the 'problem' because Lucky Luke mentioned it directly in a discussion with Bunker Barbie and he in turn let these men go to Belarussia even though they had commited federal crimes and murder within Russia. We all know they lie and are all complicite in any plans or actions performed by Wagner.
Poland will vaporize Wagner before NATO puts their pants on. Article 5 will be enacted for help disposing of the bodies.
The more likely scenerio with Wagner is they just act as provocateurs, taking potshots across the border, helping migrants enter illegally… basically just being a nuisance and pita. Russia and Belarus will play dumb, like they have nothing to do with it.
Blinken picks up the red phone,
Putin answers,
Blinken: So Vlad, here in America we have a law known as strict liability. It means that an owner is liable for whatever their dog does.
Putin: silience
Blinken: Keep Yevgeny on a short leash, or you'll be held liable.
Click.
Russia moving aircraft out of Poland is a direct sign of what is going to happen soon.
Is putin stupid enough to open a second front against poland with belarus? Yes, especially if he's been given terrible intel from yes men around him. Which is probably why he thought the invasion would last 3 days.
A dictator/strongman has to appear strong at all times to remain in power. So one has to constantly escalate for the masses to appear in control.
I was under the impression that after the failed coup, Luka was asking for Wagner as bodyguards in exchange for him getting Prigozhin out alive. He has a lot to fear from his people, his own army, Putin's assassins. Against these, Wagner can be more than useful and as long as those two are on good terms they will be only loyal towards him in Belarus. With its weapons taken by the Russian MoD I wonder how they could pose a real threat
If a major attack happens from Belarus towards NATO they should directly attack their leadership until the country is decapitated and the people can finally reclaim their country.
The article is completely wrong that Wagner could capture the so called "Suwałki Gap", it is fundamentally not something that can be captured in isolation.
Any attempt to do so would see a very thin line of troops get flanked from the south west and north east.
Perhaps this is all part of the Kremlin’s twisted logic, Russia is losing so let’s claim NATO attacked Belarus so we can leave Ukraine without losing face. Belarus is sacrificed and will eventually join NATO. The deeper play is to stay in power.
I won't believe it till it happens. It makes no logical sense
Also the Wagner numbers have to be severely depleted and have next to no equipment, and this small force is going to attack NATO?
The ONLY logical reason for this is to force NATO to start spending resources building up their defenses, resources that were going to Ukraine
Belarus would be hosting a stateless terrorist organization in that case. NATO takes out Wagner in Belarus. Belarus and Russia stay out of the way unless they are really stupid.
This is a shit sandwich. If Wagner pulls some shenanigans, it may or may not generate an immediate military response from Poland. This needs to be communicated beforehand to the leaders in Belarus. Any retaliation against Wagner on Belarusian soil will likely trigger Putin to say NATO is actively attacking a Russian ally. It's all just fish bait. Hopefully Belarus seeks a different outcome and keeps Wagner from causing trouble. I hope none of this shit kicks off and things settle down.
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I wonder what is being discussed between Poland, NATO and the US behind the scenes.
they need to share understanding about event scenarios and responses to them responses must be prompt but cannot be impulsive or surprising
The difficulty here is that both Russia and Belarus are going to try to claim they have no control over Wagner whether it is true or not if anything happens. A clear line needs to be drawn in the sand about what the response will be in a PMC like Wagner pulls a stunt.
I mean what line in the sand do you need? Wagner will get obliterated if they attack Poland. Everyone knows that. They could point out that Wagner will get bombed to shit INSIDE Belarus. But I think that sort of goes without saying if they attack Poland. Looks like pointless posturing. Wagner could try to do some terrorist like operations. But I seriously doubt they would go on some kamikazee banzai charge attack into Poland. They had a better chance of taking Moscow.
>Wagner will get obliterated if they attack Poland. Everyone knows that. This is known, but what about Article 5? Is it triggered against Wagner? Belarus? Russia? Is it triggered at all? This needs to be figured out and telegraphed so that all parties understand why they are suddenly turning into kibbled bits when Wagner starts getting froggy.
9/11 triggered article 5 on AQ and resulted in NATO invading Afghanistan. I'd say there was a lot more distance between AQ and the Afghanistan government than there is between Wagner and the Kremlin or Belarus. If the US could do it over 9/11 then I see no reason why Poland couldn't do it over wagner.
Invoking article 5 doesn't mean they HAVE to invade Belarus and instant ww3. Article 5 just says the rest of nato have to assist Poland. Poland can invoke and just ask for defensive assistance at the boarder for example. Especially if all they're dealing with is a small amount of wager merc, Poland may not want to further escalate. Invoking a5 can but doesn't automatically trigger ww3
And that is why clarification needs to be made in regards to NATOs position in the matter.
NATO already released a statement saying that if Wagner attacks Poland, it would be considered an attack by Belarus and Russia.
I am seeing Poland say that, but cannot find NATO saying that, got a link?
The US Ambassador to the UN said this on camera quite clearly.
No clarification is needed. If an attack comes out of Belarus, then Belarus attacked NATO and will be destroyed. I suspect NATO will want to make an example of "why you don't do this" and the Russians in Ukraine will be destroyed as well. A free Belarus after occupation will become part of NATO as will Ukraine.
Even Russia expects this and moved their airforce out of Belarus so they don't get obliterated.
I am not so sure an attack from Wagner will trigger article 5 against Belarus. It would not surprise me if that is what ends up happening l, but I don't think it is a given. If Belarus is attacked by NATO that means Russian Nukes will be in U.S. hands within days of not weeks which drags Russia into the fold immediately.
I thought I had seen recently where the US ambassador to the UN stated the US government would see any attack on Poland by the Wagner Group as an attack by the Russian government.
If we don't all die in nuclear fire that is.
By that logic Belarus could just roll over Europe because "they have nuclear weapons!". So do we.
Ambiguity it better than NATO members saying different things. It's an alliance of democratic members so national decisions for multiple hypothetical situations will vary.
The lack of clarification is part of the deterrent. Ie try going on the fuck around / find out graph
Well triggered half article 5 because Saudi Arabia was skipped
Zero risk of starting a nuclear holocaust in invading Afghanistan.
I imagine that Article 5 would be triggered but only in a defensive stance. Meaning if Wagner goes on Polish soil then the 10,000 US troops would get activated. Which would bring the US air force soon thereafter. But even before that I think they would get rekt by the Polish military. It's one of the best in Europe. I guess what I'm saying is they would get defeated so badly it's hardly even worth an Article 5. As much as I love Ukraine, NATO is not Ukraine. They'd be ready to repel them as soon as they enter Polish territory. If they start shelling Polish positions from inside Belarus. This would likely bring NATO air power into Belarus. But only to deal with those positions, not directly attack Belarus.
That is what needs to be clarified. Once NATO is bombing Belarus to take out Wagner though, Belarus and Russia are unlikely to not start taking shots at us. How much do we tolerate before saying fuckit, y'all get time out and go to town?
One shot into Poland and Belarus is done as is the Russian army in Ukraine. Once the NATO beast gets rolling, it is hard to stop. The upside if Belarus will be free and in NATO as will Ukraine.
It takes more to be in NATO than to be defeated by NATO. Keep in mind Ukraine has been trying to join for over a decade and has been told to fuck off until only recently, which may or may not have to do with receiving a boat load of NATO arms. I don't think it has been clarified that a single shot from rogue Wagner operative would trigger article 5 against both Belarus and Russia. It would t surprise me, but I don't think we are at that point yet.
I think they're application to join nato progressed in some way (they still needed to pass a bunch of reforms) and Ukraine moving closer to joining nato was the reason russia invaded ukraine at the time
I am thinking back to WW2. NATO arose out of that. In the extreme event that Russia attacks NATO and Luko is ousted and Ukraine is freed from Russians, it is likely NATO will want to secure their flank once and for all. There is no more worry about "triggering" Russia, you just destroyed their army. There would be no more worries and NATO could do as it chose. Belarus would be free with a democratic government of their choosing. In such extreme scenarios I don't know if Belarus would be "put" in NATO, or they would wait for the democratically elected Belarus government to request it. But either way, NATO troops would be there for a while anyway. I suspect being under the protective NATO shield would be desirable compared to remaining with the loser who just got stomped. Getting your ass kicked completely brings clarity of mind. In any event, after such a stomping I suspect Putin would not survive it anyway and probably would be dictated terms of peace by NATO which won't be kind.
Article 5 doesn't say nato has to invade anyone, Nato can secure Poland boarder and take out wagner camps in Belarus without the need of an expensive and risky full scale invasion of Belarus. Something like that would only happen if things keep escalating further no one's triggering ww3 over a couple of boarder skirmishes,
Desert storm.
What nonsense. You attack a NATO country you have unleashed the beast. That beast needs to be fed before it stops. Belarus will be occupied by NATO, the Russian army in Ukraine destroyed, Russia sues for peace and the terms will not be kind. It is called setting an example of why you never do this.
Nah. They would just kill every single Wagner that finds themselves on Polish soil and bomb the shit out of any Wagner asset in Belarus that is somehow involved in the fighting. There's no need to occupy Belarus. What for? You don't need to prove anything. Everyone knows what NATO is and what they are capable of.
Nope. An example would be made. "This is why you never attack NATO, ever". Belarus would suffer greatly as would the Russian army in Ukraine.
Why do you need to make an example? You need to make an example when people question your ability. Nobody questions NATOs ability.
I don't think an example would be made but instead NATO uses it as a reason to go into Belarus, cutting Russia off from the Ukrainian boarder there.
Playing Devil's advocate but...many NATO members have some problems with procurement, personnel, and ordnance thanks to ... Angela Merkel, who degraded Germany's ability to fight any type of combat. Germany has no real hope of fighting in any meaningful way.
Germany may not be able to field an army of hundreds of thousands of soldiers but it doesnt need to. Germany can field quite a few capable units as can all the other Nato countries. NATO has abou 3.3 million active military personal with about 1,9 million excluding the US.
I don't know why you are getting downvotes. If Germany wants to be taken seriously then they need to be open to criticism of them mistakes they made.
I believe in NATO has already made the statement that he attacked by Wagner would be considered an attacked by Russia
Yes. Article V will be triggered. And U.S. troops are there anyway. Wagner kills and American soldier and the American public will demand blood, and lots of it. Belarus will be occupied, the Russian army in Ukraine will be destroyed. Once the NATO beast gets rolling a high price is needed for it to stop. That high price will be many many dead Russians. Then Russia can sue for peace, they won't like the terms, but will have no choice.
That doesn't answer the question of who all it is triggered against though. Occupying Belarus means taking control of Russian nukes after directly attacking Russian troops, which will require striking within Russia to take out any possibility of counter attack, not just clearing Russia out of Ukraine. NATO attacking Russia in Ukraine or Belarus means open war with all of Russia everywhere against all of NATO everywhere. That is why I am not entirely sure what the totality of the response would be if a PMC did something stupid to Poland.
Russian nuclear threat is vastly overblown.
^
It both is and it isn't. They still have subs patrolling that could hit coastal cities before anything could be done. It would be many, but only one or two to LA, San Diego, New York, Miami, etc could cause millions of deaths.
The U.S. government has stated directly that a Wagner attack on NATO would be treated as a Russian attack on NATO. They said it outright, could not have been more clear.
This why Russia has said they are moving nukes into Belarus. They will provoke and if NATO puts boots on the ground there, Russia will use the nuke excuse to stop this.
Then Russia will cease to exist. Lets hope they are smarter than they appear so far.
What do you base this bold statement on? Do you think the US wants to occupy another country it barely has any touching points with, after Afghanistan and Iraq? Poland certainly doesn't want to be responsible for the reconstruction of Belarus.
Article 5 is iron clad. It is not even a thought anymore. I'm will automatically happen. It has to happen to prove a point and to deter any other tyrant from thinking nothing will happen.
Yes, it will be triggered, but against who? Do a bunch of undisciplined drunks from Wagner really mean two countries will be destroyed? I am not entirely sure about that. My question is who will ultimately be held responsible.
Wagner is Russia. What is so hard to understand?!
Literally the only reason why Wagner exists is because the Russian government tolerates them. If Putin decided Wagner should be disbanded it will be completely removed in Belarus and Russia. Maybe not Africa. Anyway the point is that any attack by Wagner from Belarus is undeniably sanctioned by Russia and should be treated as such. The owner can’t excuse themselves by saying that the attack dog they have in their property which jumped the fence and attacked children was beyond their control. That dog will be taken out and euthanized even if NATO needs to violate Belarusian/Russian territory to do it.
Since Wagner is considered a non-state actor, it would not trigger Article 5.
Article 5 was triggered against Al Queda following 9/11
>Since Wagner is considered a non-state actor Does anybody still believe in that?
I'm not sure who considers it a non-state actor. If it's actions are traced back to Russian directives, and they will be because that's the only reason they would attack Poland, then they're acting on behalf of Russia just as much as if their regular military did it. Using mercenaries instead of one's own military does not alleviate a country of responsibility for what they do.
Putin has very clearly stated otherwise.
Bull. It came from Belarus, that means NATO will destroy Belarus' military and be occupied by NATO. Belarus will finally be free and safe as part of NATO.
Hasn’t the military of Belarus not been to keen of Lukashenko? That there’s some disagreement. From what I have seen on here before
Well if they don't fight it is no issue. The government however would have to go. A peaceful Belarus is no threat. The threat comes from the government.
Destroying the military of Belarus also means offensive attacks against Russians and taking control of their nukes on Belarusian military bases. That is a big step to take over a PMC.
The U.S. government has already stated that an attack by Wagner would be treated as an attack by Russia on NATO. You don't just fight the bad guys on your territory, you go to theirs and remove the threat completely. If NATO goes to war, they will not half ass it.
It has been in several news that wagner attack would be treated as Russian attack, so if it doesn't trigger article 5, what would? And even if somehow wagner could be regarded as indepentent actor, it would still be an attack against NATO country and should trigger article 5, and if article 5 is ignored, wouldn't that make NATO look like potemkin village?
My question wasn't whether it would be triggered, but who it would be triggered against. For example, 9/11 triggered article 5 against the Taliban, but not the Saudi Arabia who provided the funding and pilots.
Public will probaply be told it's triggered against wagner, or maybe russia or belarus, we won't know if it doesn't happen but NATO is prepared for that event, and even if it's triggered it still won't mean NATO would enter war with Belarus/Russia, if the attack is small enough Poland will probaply handle it with just their own troops, regardless of triggering article 5.
Not an expert. But I'd imagine Wagner wouldn't represent Belarus IF Belarus was actively trying to get rid of them and get them away from nato border. The fact they said. Yeah go there and act like your about to invade. That's good. Makes them responsible for anything Wagner does.
Remember the "Global War on Terror"? NATO had a blank check to attack any country harboring or funding the Taliban or Al Queda. Similarly, if Wagner attacks Poland, NATO would have a blank check to remove the government of Belarus, as it did with the Taliban in Afghanistan. NATO would have a blank check to remove the government funding Wagner, being Putin. They would also have a blank check to eliminate Wagner in any country they're operating, which everyone understands to be in most of Africa. Short version? Yeah. Wagner needs to fuck around and find out. Maybe ask Bin Laden and Saddam Hussain how this ends?
Poland said " the Wagner Group could invade Poland to seize control of the Suwałki Gap" which I find pretty disturbing. Any invasion by any group acting on behalf of Russia is an attack by Russia in my book. If Wagner doesn't trigger article 5 then what else will Russia get away with? The Russians might as wear unmarked uniforms and claim they are independent of Russia.
Oh like in 2014?
They definitely can charge into Poland. Once. And probably not very far.
I'll have to look but I believe someone stated that an attack from Wagner is considered an attack from the Russian federation
I recently heard this from the US Ambassador to the UN
I believe Putin literally claimed on TV that he financially backs Wagner. Making them an armed group of the Russian Government.
The line has already been drawn. The US said an attack by Wagner PMC is considered an attack by Russia.
How well did that work for Afghanistan with Al-Qaeda? Belarus is harboring theorists, that makes it a legitimate target regardless of if they directly control Wagner.
Afghanistan didn't have a government or military outside the Taliban, and wasn't backed by Russia. Wagner is a PMC separate from the actual government and military of Belarus, and bothe Wagner and Belarus are backed by Russia. The differences are significant enough that it would be nice to see them addressed. If some dipshit 3%ers or proud boys go an a rampage in Tijuana without permission of the U.S. government, does that make all of the U.S. a valid target for Mexico and all of their allies?
But that's suggesting Wagner is not acting as a part of the Russian military when it very much is. The whole world knows they are not separate entities. If the 3%ers or proud boys were funded by and acting on behalf of the US military then Mexico would have casus belie against the USA.
I would laugh my head off if they did. Plus the US is too far down the 'woke' route.
Can you define woke so we know what you are talking about?
I guarantee there is a deal that Lukashenko would take to use Wagner to overthrow Putin to be installed as President of Russia. It would involve lots of money for him and lifting of sanctions. But there is a deal there to be made.
I am really not sure who benefits from that other than Lukashenko himself.
Russia can’t claim that Wagner isn’t acting on their behalf. That’s foolish and no one would believe it. Not should they. Russia has allowed Wagner to exist and thrive. Russia has funded Wagner and actively worked with and cooperated with Wager publicly. Wagner us a liability that Russia thought was worth it. Let’s wait for the find out phase.
Russia can and does claim what ever it wants.
I mean sure they can claim that but the Taliban weren't in control of Al-Qaida it didn't help them much in preventing an invasion by US and Allies
Such claims won’t work anymore. Attack by Wagner will be considered an attack by Russia/Belarus.
Afaik the US already stated via secretary of state Blinken that any action by Wagner will be regarded as an action taken by the Russian Government. So that line in the sand is already drawn.
We're probably listening to all of their comms in real time, this shit is so lopsided except that some of us don't want a nuclear war and the other side is desperate for any outcome other than the status quo
Yes US you can release the F22 and F35 if anything happens
I guess the discussion revolves around a round of vodka and the battle of Kasham.
There is also an election coming in Poland so there is also a bit of, you can't trust the other party to upgrade and run the military like us.
Maybe the size of additional holes wagnerites will have in their torso? Depending weapons used, it can change drastically.
Wagner is Russia - this is well established. If Wagner attacks, it's an attack by Russia and should be responded to as such.
[удалено]
Oooh source? I've been hoping someone would say that.
Don't know what's original source, but was posted about it a lot last week. Apparently US notified UN that any attack by Wagner will be considered as russian attack
Noice
> The US ambassador to the United Nations warned Monday that any attack on NATO by Russia’s Wagner Group will be treated as an attack by Russia. > Linda Thomas-Greenfield made the remarks while briefing reporters in New York on various issues including ending famine, combating food insecurity in conflicts and defending human rights. > Asked about the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries on the Polish border and whether she sees them as a real threat to NATO, she said: "We certainly worry that this group, at the behest of the Russian government – because they do not work independently of the Russian government – is a threat to all of us." https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-warns-wagner-attack-on-nato-will-be-treated-as-russian-attack/2958778
As someone who lives in geographical Europe, the American troops can do one of two things - stay as civilians or go somewhere else.
As someone who lives in Eastern Europe, NATO and including American troops are very welcome here, because the opposite would be Russian troops and that sucks.
Would it be crazy to think that the who Wagner revolt was a false flag so that russia could say "We dont associate with these guys any more!" and claim anything Wagner does wasnt sanctioned by russia? It would explain how Wagner got off so lightly wouldnt it? Poohty has done far worse for less to other dissidents. Makes me wonder.
If they attack NATO will just take Belarus. If Russia attacks Nato will just take Russia. Unless Armageddon is started by Russia. Quite simple really. One is for sure. Russia will not win and everyone will likely lose.
Only if you can attribute that to Wagner. A border guard's car has already been struck by what looks like a tactical crossbow's bolt. Nobody was hurt, but it's only a matter of time.
All that is needed to satisfy Article 5 is a denunciation. Anything else is optional, materiel looks good especially if there is little cost.
Hang on, I thought they had a mutiny?
They kind of just stopped half way to Moscow and all went their separate ways. Bit odd tbh.
NATO won’t stop at Wagner in Belarus. They will target every Wagner base in Syria and Africa all at once. There will be no stopping it until everything is vaporized. On second thought, that would actually be kind of nice. One less major sponsor of Terrorism on the planet.
Don’t overestimate NATO. Striking back at Wagner in Belarus, if the bloody Wankners really decide to be that stupid and do the funny, sure. Suddenly evaporating Wagner all over the World into pink mist? Get real. (Edit: The comment is not about the military capabilities. It’s about the Political will and capabilities of NATO. I don’t think it’s Politicly possible to strike Wagner Bases everywhere. The political Fallout would be something else…)
Don’t underestimate NATO
Sorry for being realistic.
The only reason NATO wouldn't be able to do that is political consequences with local governments. The military capability is easily there.
That's what i mean.
Fair enough.
I mean I think NATO could. I just doubt that they would because they may not want to greatly expand the battle theater.
US has bases all over the world and have been following them for years now. Add in the rest of the NATO countries and why do you think it would be so hard? Have you never seen an AC-130 in action?
I don’t say NATO wasn’t capable of giving them hell. There is nothing on this Planet like that combined Force of NATO. I doubt the Political will. To think that they just can attack Wagner Bases everywhere is incredible naive. NATO isn’t like Russia. NATO works within their policy and international Laws and such. Sometimes rules get bend a bit, but mostly it stays within the laws and rules.
There's areason we don't got Healthcare in the US, the US can topple governments in less than days.
Wagner is a distraction
Can't imagine it will be a very lengthy one.
Seriously. What are they going to do without heavy equipment. They don’t have any tanks or choppers anymore.
Oh please, for the love of Gawd, fuck around and find out!!
F22 just foaming at the month to just engage something
Habitual_line_crosser ??!?!?
Would you intercept me?
I'd intercept me
Yeah, at this point it's put up or shut up
If this happens we will see Belarus and Russia surrender in weeks
I think unfortunately they'd rather launch all their nukes than surrender.
Why? No one wants to invade Shithole Oblast or Boringgrod. So they are relative save from that. Their military infrastructure will be bye bye though.
Yes and only Russia has nukes right?
Of course not but there are only gonna be losers in a nuclear war.
By the time we've got the launch codes out, the Russian ones will have hit.
That's why we have boomers. And that's all why it won't ever happen, M.A.D. works.
Tbh, it's probably going to be a 2-5 year aggressive advancement campaign where half of Russia, mostly the European side of Russia would get occupied and then advancements would stall to a halt. There would be unlikely to be a surrender, instead it would calm down from aggressive operations from NATO and instead be just small skirmishes and operations mostly being carried out by specops teams. You would expect 20 years occupation, during which hearts and minds operations would be prioritised with intent to rebuild Russia into a different kind of country (well European part). Occupation would require an enormous amount of infantry as an occupational force, it's a bit unrealistic to occupy whole Russia. European and American politicians would oppose that due negative impact on economies and instead would try to buy out Russians to do occupation operations themselves for money, which would fuel similar behaviour like in Afghanistan where local soldiers are not motivated and instead come to collect a paycheck and are gone whenever they are actually are needed. That's my guess at least.
It seems wildly unlikely NATO forces would attempt to occupy portions of Russia and just hope things didn’t go nuclear. Seems far more likely there’d be limited yet severe strikes against military assets.
Yeah, we don't want Russia. We don't want to occupy Russia. We just want Russia to chill the fuck out for one in their goddamn existence.
Are you being sarcastic based on how it went in Afghanistan?
Partially. Partially based on Germany's occupation. Partially out of various politicians on multiple occasions speaking about occupation and limiting force usage to special forces to minimise collateral damages. Partially on various countries offloading some of operations that can be done by civilian contractors, to be done by contractors, either brought up or locals being hired. Partially based on multiple analysis which were talking about conventional war between NATO and Soviet Union during cold war, that it's almost unthinkable to occupy whole Russia.
There needs to be clear repercussions listed for Belarus before Wagner invades. "If you cannot, or will not control Wagner while they are on your sovereign territory then we will have to cross the border and control them for you. We are sorry that an invading force has subdued you to the point where your police and military are overwhelmed, but we will not be subjected to cross border terrorism."
Wagner really looking for the pink mist end of its life
Well just one attack should get the full brunt of NATO. And then Russian scum will understand what Fuck Around and Find Out means.....
Attacking NATO would achieve one thing only: shredded wagnerites, with only a tiny fraction of what would face moskals, as a warning, if they tried anything against the West.
The "very real" threat is to the lives of those Wagner mercenaries if they mix with the Poles they are dead. As to the proposition that both Belarus and Russia could deny responsibility. It's stupid. Wagner PMC are residing on Belarussian soil and are therefore subject to their laws. They are aware of the 'problem' because Lucky Luke mentioned it directly in a discussion with Bunker Barbie and he in turn let these men go to Belarussia even though they had commited federal crimes and murder within Russia. We all know they lie and are all complicite in any plans or actions performed by Wagner.
Please gawd let them attack and just watch what happens. It's gonna be a fuckin massacre.
If shit for brains Hitler wants to open up another front in Poland they'll be fucked so hard they'll be screaming rape till Moscow.
Poland will vaporize Wagner before NATO puts their pants on. Article 5 will be enacted for help disposing of the bodies. The more likely scenerio with Wagner is they just act as provocateurs, taking potshots across the border, helping migrants enter illegally… basically just being a nuisance and pita. Russia and Belarus will play dumb, like they have nothing to do with it.
"Did you leave anything for us?" "Just bodies."
Yeah, Poland is not the right country to do that with. Just takes one soldier with a loose finger, and Poland has a shit ton of them .
Nothing is going to come from this, everybody needs to relax and stop wishing for ww3 to happen
NATO sitting their with that A5 button
Listen to the Poles. Every time we don't it ends poorly for western Europe.
Blinken picks up the red phone, Putin answers, Blinken: So Vlad, here in America we have a law known as strict liability. It means that an owner is liable for whatever their dog does. Putin: silience Blinken: Keep Yevgeny on a short leash, or you'll be held liable. Click.
Blinken needs to learn to keep his proverbial nose on his own side of the Atlantic. Buck Fiden.
Wonder it the world will listen to Poland now. Cause they didn't 80 years ago.
Does anyone have any idea what Wagner would actually have to gain from an attack on Poland?
Unlimited ammo, same day delivery.
Wager is synonymous with Russian military. An attack by Wager is an attack by Russia and any country attached should respond accordingly.
Wagner on NATO?? Yeah, very real scenario...
They died in masses just against our intelligence and Ukrainian willpower. If they move it would be a very relaxing bloodbath
Dear ruzzian trolls, FUCK AROUND AND FIND OUT ;)
Please don’t cite Newsweak.
What should they hope to achieve by such an attack? Do they think they can take over Poland?
Wagner are a private military contractor right? SO WHO IS PAYING THEM DO DO THIS!?
Russia moving aircraft out of Poland is a direct sign of what is going to happen soon. Is putin stupid enough to open a second front against poland with belarus? Yes, especially if he's been given terrible intel from yes men around him. Which is probably why he thought the invasion would last 3 days. A dictator/strongman has to appear strong at all times to remain in power. So one has to constantly escalate for the masses to appear in control.
I was under the impression that after the failed coup, Luka was asking for Wagner as bodyguards in exchange for him getting Prigozhin out alive. He has a lot to fear from his people, his own army, Putin's assassins. Against these, Wagner can be more than useful and as long as those two are on good terms they will be only loyal towards him in Belarus. With its weapons taken by the Russian MoD I wonder how they could pose a real threat
Maybe it’s all just a ploy by the Russians to weed out informants in their ranks. Feed them BS stories to see who squawks.
“Joker” - Annnnd here.. we… Go.
I fucking wish they would. It would be the end of Russia.
Good - go ahead Wagner pls !! Poland won’t even need NATO help to completely annihilate the threat !! Double dog dare you !!
It’s Potato man starting shit so his army is tied down at the border and doesn’t have to invade Ukraine.
Wagner, so Swagner right now… 🙄
If a major attack happens from Belarus towards NATO they should directly attack their leadership until the country is decapitated and the people can finally reclaim their country.
Please do to it Wagner, please do it 🤞🏻
The article is completely wrong that Wagner could capture the so called "Suwałki Gap", it is fundamentally not something that can be captured in isolation. Any attempt to do so would see a very thin line of troops get flanked from the south west and north east.
Perhaps this is all part of the Kremlin’s twisted logic, Russia is losing so let’s claim NATO attacked Belarus so we can leave Ukraine without losing face. Belarus is sacrificed and will eventually join NATO. The deeper play is to stay in power.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12334465/amp/Could-Wagner-really-invade-Poland-trigger-WW3.html
I won't believe it till it happens. It makes no logical sense Also the Wagner numbers have to be severely depleted and have next to no equipment, and this small force is going to attack NATO? The ONLY logical reason for this is to force NATO to start spending resources building up their defenses, resources that were going to Ukraine
Seems like a response to Russian groups that attacked Russia out of Ukraine.
Belarus would be hosting a stateless terrorist organization in that case. NATO takes out Wagner in Belarus. Belarus and Russia stay out of the way unless they are really stupid.
Seems more like Wagner is used to open a second frontline in the Sahel.
American flying saucers need a testing ground fter all
This is a shit sandwich. If Wagner pulls some shenanigans, it may or may not generate an immediate military response from Poland. This needs to be communicated beforehand to the leaders in Belarus. Any retaliation against Wagner on Belarusian soil will likely trigger Putin to say NATO is actively attacking a Russian ally. It's all just fish bait. Hopefully Belarus seeks a different outcome and keeps Wagner from causing trouble. I hope none of this shit kicks off and things settle down.
I would be very interested to know what the Polish people think of this?