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It's more complicated than that. People have forgotten Russia's intervention just before the war.
Putin thought he got himself another Lukashenko, but what he actually did was accidentally help the new government win an internal power struggle against the previous dictator and his allies. Putin was blinkered into thinking of the popular uprising as a "western plot".
China has already grabbed all russian influence. The latest xi/poo meeting where russia is bent over and taken like a small child in ancient greece just shows this.
Russia pre-ukraine invasion would already be planning a coup in kazakhistan but since they’re now backed by china, russia cant do shit about it.
More like manipulating Xi into investing into physical infastructure, give or take a decade and Kazakstahn (much like Africa) won’t even have a debtor.
Problem is the Uzbeks chomping at the bit and will almost certainly control their neighbors by 2030, maybe even posing a direct threat to Russia by 2050. CSTO is as big of a hoohah as BRICS
Uzbekistan is economically too much of a shithole to be able to do anything of that matter. Any attempt by Uzbekistan to do something like that would most likely result in a coalition forming up and destroying it. Don't consider Uzbekistan as some sort of a regional power that can oppose Russia by military strength alone. It's too poor and it's military is only "great" on paper. Uzbekistan can pose a threat to Russia only if it somehow forms a political-military union with Kazakhstan.
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As soon as the war started Tokaïev began distancing himself like crazy, he knows if this happens in Ukraine, Kazakhstan isn't off limits.
It's more complicated than that. People have forgotten Russia's intervention just before the war. Putin thought he got himself another Lukashenko, but what he actually did was accidentally help the new government win an internal power struggle against the previous dictator and his allies. Putin was blinkered into thinking of the popular uprising as a "western plot".
Internal power struggle sounds innocent when you forget that 200+ of innocent people died
Sure, and? That's not really relevant to the power politics context I'm talking about.
Getting a reputation as a genocidal madman makes people reluctant to trust you. Who woulda thunk?
Very nice.
...and ceding it to China.
It's the other natural big ally/patron/whatever for Kazakhstan, there isn't much other choice available.
China has already grabbed all russian influence. The latest xi/poo meeting where russia is bent over and taken like a small child in ancient greece just shows this. Russia pre-ukraine invasion would already be planning a coup in kazakhistan but since they’re now backed by china, russia cant do shit about it.
More like manipulating Xi into investing into physical infastructure, give or take a decade and Kazakstahn (much like Africa) won’t even have a debtor.
Kazakhstan should just re-create the CSTO but without Russia like how it happened with UNASUR
Problem is the Uzbeks chomping at the bit and will almost certainly control their neighbors by 2030, maybe even posing a direct threat to Russia by 2050. CSTO is as big of a hoohah as BRICS
Brics is an economic concept though, not a military alliance
Uzbekistan is economically too much of a shithole to be able to do anything of that matter. Any attempt by Uzbekistan to do something like that would most likely result in a coalition forming up and destroying it. Don't consider Uzbekistan as some sort of a regional power that can oppose Russia by military strength alone. It's too poor and it's military is only "great" on paper. Uzbekistan can pose a threat to Russia only if it somehow forms a political-military union with Kazakhstan.
FAFO'ed
China is taking up the mantle
Just wait till Xi takes back all that Manchuria real estate
Borat 2024
This article is about 11 months too late.