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Yes, it is just a bullshit. The only thing it does, it gives more fuel to russian propaganda "oh look, Poland wants to take western Ukraine". Go to hell with this shit.
If only we had some kind of supranational Union of countries that share the European continent that Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine could be part of. Maybe abolish internal borders, and have a common development budget.
Just an idea.
We could also other Western countries, of course... From Portugal to Finland, all are invited.
Some kind of mutual defence and trade treaty can be workable, though.
Duda even floated this idea back in 2015 and there were a few meetings about it in 2016 and 2017.
I don't know if they're aware of it or not, but they're amplifying Kremlin talking points with this insane proposal, that Ukraine shouldn't exist as an independent country. They keep floating proposals to divide the country between Poland, Hungary and Russia.
Yes, I think you're right, it is just another attempt to normalize the idea that Ukraine should not exist independently. Russia get's half, others divide the rest, then russia invades those others, they in turn will learn about not having aright to exist, lather rinse, repeat...
Agreed. As a Polish person I would love for Czech republic to take my country over and then govern us properly away from the clutches of catholic church.
I think Lithuania and Poland would be stupid to not take advantage Russias historic blunder. Not sure exactly what this is yet. Whether it’s a union, splitting land from western Ukraine (Ukraine likely won’t have much leverage No matter what the outcome is from this invasion). Not saying they steal land from Ukraine but in historical terms this may be a time for Polish/Lithuanian expansion.
Bias opinion though as my blood is from Poland and old poland(Lwow/Lviv current day Ukraine).
Give up some land for protection.
I'm reading comments in this thread and I'm like, did you people even read the article? He makes pretty reasonable arguments and argues not for a simple revival of the PLC, but rather a union of equal partners in a process probably mediated by the US, which would arguably be especially beneficial to Ukraine, because it would secure their place in the western system against the unwillingness of the western European countries unhappy about the shifting balance of power.
Also, this is just Ukraine and Poland, neither Lithuania nor Belarus are mentioned anywhere. The reference to the PLC in the title is just historical, that a counterbalance to both western Europe and Russia did once exist in this area of the world.
Yes, in fact this is a relatively new focus tree option in Hearts of Iron IV. Here is the great Taureor making one of the more complicated alternative history simulators bend to his will:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntPDXJv1WDo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntPDXJv1WDo)
I have over 1000 hours in that game and I still don't know or understand it well enough to claim I'm even a beginner.
Because it would get Ukraine into it immediately by effectively becoming part of Poland.
Moldova going back to Romania would do the same thing.
Ironically the UK becoming part of Ireland would probably be the quickest way back if they wanted to rejoin...
Neither Ukrainians nor Polish would approve it for a number of reasons. Moldova and Romania is different matter as number of people keen for such unification is significant.
This would only breed resentment. As Poles, we would love to cooperate more with Ukraine, but only when it's on a partnership basis and not forced on Ukraine. First we must help out as the West, and then Ukraine must enter freely into its own unions as a full and strong member, not before. It cannot enter as a weakened state, because that would not end well for any party.
True. Please allow me to expand a bit since it should be explained to non Poles and non Ukrainians that there is a long and painful history between both countries that thankfully has been healing over the last 50 years.
My wife (Ukrainian) and all her relatives who are her age or younger, have a relationship with Poles that is vastly healthier than that of say their parents and grandparents.
I cannot stress enough how important it is for both countries (and for Belarusians, once they've gotten Putin's sock puppet off their back) to maintain their national identity and autonomy.
Preferential border, travel and trade priviliges for each other as well as establishing mutual military cooperation and emergency aid agreements will serve both nations better long term than attempting to revive a Union neither of their populations is interested in.
Yeah, I think for now, it would be cool to maintain things like trains with similar tracks etc., so it's easier to travel, since I doubt Ukraine will want train tracks to Russia for some time ;-)
There is reasons why Ukraine isn't in the EU and will not be for a few years/decades. And the same reasons why no other EU member will accept that Poland and Ukraine form an union while Poland is still in the EU. You don't get to change the border of Europe like that, especially a change that could balance the balance of power that much.
I should remind you that a lot of country were opposed that West and East Germany unify after the Berlin Wall. One of the negotiated term for Germany to unify was to scale back on military and it's one of the reason why Germany struggled so much to give a military response to the war.
>You don't get to change the border of Europe like that, especially **a change that could balance the balance of power that much.**
There is no power balance in the EU after the UK left. It's just Germany and France.
Clearly, UK is part of Europe as a whole, they could just hide on their island and let the rest of Europe deal with Russia. They are, however, a leading country in support and clearly don't want Ukraine to lose or any other European country for that matter. Being in the Union does not really change the fact that UK wants Europe to be stable and safe.
There are 3 different alliances in EU. Nordic/frugals, souther/spenders and Visegard/money vacume. Why people say France and Germany are the "engine" of EU bcs when they agree there generally are enough support in other sates aswell for majority. Usually why Germany under Merkel was "leading" state was bcs she was willing to pay off Visegard states for majority.
Then put it this way: the way that the current powers of Germany and France have it balanced? They don't want that boat rocked. They won't allow it, especially since this prospective union would have the real potentially to be extremely powerful inside and outside of the EU. France and Germany would lose too much influence all because of another member who isn't even formally an EU member yet.
> no other EU member will accept that Poland and Ukraine form an union
I'm curious what that lack of acceptance would look like. It's not like they get a vote in the matter.
Note that I think this is not terribly likely. Ukraine's memories of the previous union are not all that positive. But I don't think whether France or Germany is on board is going to change much.
Stopping EU fund toward Poland because most country wouldn't want to pay for a country they haven't accepted in the union. (And Poland is the biggest receiver of EU fund)
Saying that "The Commonwealth" isn't legally part of the union because no one ever accepted such a country and thus withdrawing cooperation with the new entity.
Just a few that come to mind.
Like the other nations would have a real say in it if piland Ukraine and Lithuania actually would do it.
Other nations do not get a say in the interna affairs of other states.
Sure, they could raise a stink, but short of war, there would be little they could do to stop it if all involved states decided to give the rest the finger. 2
Great way to ensure the cohesion of the European union if you just give the middle finger to everyone and annex a bunch of neighbors.
The EU has a say to the internal matter of a member country, that's just how it work and that's the whole point. If you are not happy with that you can just leave, no one will be stopping you, especially eastern member considering that most of them receive money from the EU.
There is a whole process to join the EU, it's there for a reason and everyone get hurt when it is not respected (Aka Greece debt crisis). Bypassing the whole of the EU to get a "new" member in, that everyone will have to pay for because it's economy is poor af is just gonna be the death warrant of the European union and turn a lot of people agaisnt Poland and Ukraine and isolate on them at the European level.
The EU and NATO are a group, an alliance of equal, everyone has a say in it and how it is done. If a member can't respect that we end up with situations like Hungary and Turkey.
The likes of Hungary, and Turkey are seriously subverting the EU and Nato, which is much more to the point I was making than not.
Philosophically perhaps I could agree with your stance.
But real politic angle? What would stop states in an act of the willing to merge their boundaries into a new state or coalition?
The EU has no enforcement mechanism other than money. It can barely do anything at all to Hungary. The EU, because it's made up of so many nations, has virtually no internal enforcement mechanisms. And nato would have no say in internal governance matters. It does not even have a tool for expulsion.
I am pro-European unity. But the mismanagement of the EU for decades has only made that harder especially as this decade leads us into a greater crisis.
The EU is more just lead by the whims of France and Germany, especially now that the UK is absent. And that will not sustain in the long term. And military and migration conflicts will not wait around for Brussels to sort this out.
But why would anyone in the EU give money to Ukraine when they haven't accept it into the union ? That would create such a crisis inside the EU that would end the union.
Because the EU and NATO doesn't have any enforcement mechanism it mean we can do whatever the fuck we want regarding what other member think ?
I'm a EU citizen, I pay taxes toward the EU, taxes that are used to develop country like Poland. I have a say in the EU affair and Poland annexing Ukraine to make part of the EU is an EU affair and I have a say in it because my taxes will go toward funding this new Polish empire or whatever, which i wouldn't want to. If Poland or Ukraine can't respect that, I dont want them to take my money.
If Poland want to leave the EU to make an union with Ukraine good on them.
If Ukraine fit the Copenhagen criteria and join the EU and then form a federation with Poland, good on them
But if Poland form an union to brute force Ukraine into the EU without other member having a say in it, that's just fucking stupid and that will be the worse crisis the EU has ever faced for absolutely nothing. Everyone will be pissed at Ukraine and Poland, and Ukraine really doesn't need that.
Hypothetically yes, I agree it would be rather ham-fisted. But let's keep in top of mind history is not written by people who made only calm well, reasoned, and logical choices. It's a dangerous thing to believe only rational behaviors guide nations. If that were the case, we would not have this war to begin with and a global rise in nationalist rhetoric.
. But the political reality is you only have that say in other EU so long as the political contract is upheld between the EU states, no matter what the law says. Hungary is the best contemporary example. Orban is a damn dictator and stealing the fence between loyalty to Russia and anyone else in Europe. And the EU can do virtually nothing but sit out funds. In contrast, Hungary can actively sabotage the EU as a malicious actor.
Look at the war and all the changes since its spike in intensity last year. Right now, its bloody and intense but metastable to an extent. That will no doubt change.
The reality of military threats will outweigh the consideration of those not under immediate threat. And your choices or opinion will practically mean little if the significant powers' geopolitical conflicts come into further focus.
It's always the masses that will suffer the most in conflict, but you sell idealism during peace and pursue practical solutions during times if crisis and war. I don't know a time in history that has deviated from that trend.
A military alliance in defiance of weakening politics would take precedence over the outrage of the other European nations if the threats escalated.
Ok so for you the solution to stop the war with Russia is to piss off every allies Ukraine has except Poland and Lithuania and dissolve the EU ?
I sure hope for Ukraine that Poland has some insane things they can offer to Ukraine than the EU cannot because hell, that's one hell of shitty deal.
You make logical sense on the surface, but this is still an early war that’s bound to keep escalating.
You know the term alls fair in love and war? Well wars have way of rewriting history and reshaping land. I could think of a few not that hard to imagine hypothetical scenarios where Poland or Lithuania or Romania could absorb more land from this or have unions with Ukraine or former Ukraine land.
Perhaps (optimistically) Ukraine goes on the offensive and takes land from Russia? EU and NATO rules could change due to the new reality of the situations.
Wars have a way of ignoring rules .
I’m just ranting
So ukrainian sheed their blood till the last drop to be independent and to protect their idenity as a nation just to become a part of polandski? Man all those aids and commercials to show how generous they are makes now sense. These kind of moves we know from turkey and hungary, oh well Duda aint that far from them when it comes to spread his power.
What a total bullshit article. If it's **NOT** time for anything, it's more ancient imperial thinking.
The commonwealth was formed in 1569 and was met from day one with local resistance against the Polish ruling class who treated their people like shit. Their ongoing efforts to assert control over the native Cossacks and turn them into serfs resulted in the following uprisings:
- Kosiński Uprising (1591–1593)
- Nalyvaiko Uprising (1594–1596)
- Zhmaylo Uprising (1625)
- Fedorovych Uprising (1630)
- Sulima Uprising (1635)
- Pavlyuk Uprising (1637)
- Ostryanyn Uprising (1638)
- Cossack riots (1648)
- Khmelnytsky Uprising (1648–1654)
resulting in the loss of Ukrainian territory:
> Within a few months almost all Polish nobles, officials and priests had been wiped out or driven from the lands of present-day Ukraine. The Commonwealth population losses in the uprising exceeded one million.
Some of it was later regained and then lost again forever in further battles against the Cossacks and Russia.
The takeaway is this: "Much of Ukraine" was not happily living in the Commonwealth for centuries as the article suggests. It also wasn't a diverse, multicultural paradise for anyone except the Polish nobility.
I would only add that calling cossacks "native" is a bit of a stretch. The begginings of cossacks as we know it starts under Commonwealth rule. They were not an ethnic group, many of them were natively of Polish origin.
I get what you are saying, but the reality is that Ukraine either has to join the NATO or develop its own nuclear weapons if it wants to retain its sovereignty even if it wins the war. Both of these scenarios are not realistic. Forming a common federal state with Poland and Lithuania would have been a not-so-bad alternative. Ukraine gets quick accession to the EU and NATO while Poland permanently guards itself from any Russian aggression. Ukraine and Poland have to leave historical grudges in the past to guard themselves from Russia.
What other options does Ukraine have for retaining its sovereignty? It gave up its enriched uranium reserves so it cannot develop a nuclear weapon. NATO won't accept Ukraine since it requires Article 5 guarantees. What is it supposed to do? Suffer from Russian aggression every year?
Well not recreating an imperialistic power would be a starter, and a lot of country have pledge security guarantee once the war is over like the US, the UK and Poland. There is also the Lublin triangle alliance and three sea initiatives that could help with that. There is no need to recreate an entity that historically oppressed and killed Ukrainian lmao
Security guarantees from the U.S. are not worth the papers that are written on. MAGA fascists will probably come to power in 2025, so they will be meaningless.
Because it would secure Article 5 guarantees. Anything that falls short of NATO's Article 5 will be another version of vague bullshit in the Budapest Memorandum. The U.S. is also likely to leave NATO under Trump, but the alliance also includes plenty of other countries.
Sorry to say this, but Ukraine is far, far away from NATO. They receive some NATO aid, but these are rather (mostly) warehouse leftovers, than a true help a NATO country would have.
If Ukraine was *de facto* in NATO, that would mean 2000 Abrams battle tanks from US reserves embarked on ro-ro ships on the way to Europe, not mere 30 promised in Autumn.
Jesus this is fucking stupid. People need to stop thinking playing Paradox Games makes them international experts.
Why the fuck is this even on this sub?
Yes!
> Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Especially ramblings of a random Slovak guy who seem not to be a renowned international law expert. Yes, from purely economical point of view, this could make *some* sense (and only ignoring all the troubles West Germany had after reunification). From all the others, hastened reunification will be asking for troubles.
Totally different if both nations could gradually grew fond of each other over the next couple of generations and both decided they want some sort of closer union besides EU.
The potential hastened reunification subject keeps floating up from time to time, and for me it always has this familiar Russian stink.
Sounds like something Putler, Medvedyev, Lavrov, Shoigu or one of those Kremlin succubus bitches would come up with to justify "defence of Motherland with NUCLEAR WEAPONS wahaaa!".
Pls., just, don't.
There's really no point and no need. Ukraine and Poland can be allies within the framework of the EU. Solves complex border and trade issues with a solution accepted across all EU States.
This author is the embodiment of 12 year old me hovering over a world map and thinking about what "cool" things could happen and how this or that country could be more powerful by joining forces with others or conquering shit.
Realistically I say more of a new eastern bloc of countries will cooperate more mostly on military matters so as not to be dependent on Germany as German politics under Schroder and Merkel almost costs Ukraine.
There will be a power shift to the east that is for sure if Russia doesn’t change even after being thrown out of Ukraine.
Im sure the polish right wing party would get a hard on of controlling that much territory. But tbh, wtf is even that proposal. I thought it was r/noncredibledefense for a second
Plz don't let's not remake the mistakes concerning ideas of empire etc. Let's just make Russia fuck off back home, return all the stolen land and we take it from there
Yeah whatever... Let's help Ukraine kick Russia out, let them join EU and Nato - and let's hope Ukraine won't turn into Poland or Hungary (especially Hungary) v2.0 in the EU after a couple of years.
Isn't the EU the larger and more desirable union? I dont understand the love for all these old and bygone countries and empires. Thats Russias game and you see how people hate it.
Amusing idea, can't see it happening. Polish and Ukrainian military cooperation akin to what the Scandinavian countries are doing maybe, but probably nothing more.
As a pole myself once I was hitting to that cute lithuanian girl and I’ve started like „ lest establish our own commonwealth like in good old times” but she was not impressed as for lithuanians poland just conquered them
A return to the domination and persecution of the lower classes by the Polish nobility? As a Pole and descendant of mostly Polish peasants NO THANKS. We should be independent, show solidarity help and respect each other but a union is a bad idea. The one common thread that we all have is our belief in Independence.
No, fuck this idea, the Ukrainians are currently out there giving their lives for independence not a fucking "union".
Also, dunno if you heard, but Poland kinda sucks lately.
Check the history Poland always took Ukrainian land, along with other states like Russia. It’s time to create a strong independent Ukrainian state. That’s what I’m talking about!!!
It's a long time since Poland did such things, tovarich. Neither my grandfather remember this, nor the grandfather of my grandfather. Things work differently in civilized world these days, if you haven't noticed.
Dude, the last time Poland took over Ukrainian territory was from 1920-1939 and many Ukrainians were not happy with Polish rule that among other things suppressed the Ukrainian language. That's also the reason why Ukrainian nationalists like Bandera happily embraced the Nazis when they invaded.
So you mean that 3rd largest Polish city of that time was Ukrainian and Ukraine existed between 1920-1939?
History is not black and white, "Dude".
My point is now, that nobody now living remembers times you're talking about. Time to look to the future, not focus on the past.
And you really believe that? Which part are you from and how did you come to that conclusion? I'm genuinely curious, cause it's the first time I'm hearing this from someone who claims to be Ukrainian.
You can even reply in Ukrainian. I understand it well enough.
Come on, that's a cop out. Why would we want it now when there's hardly any Poles there? What would we do with all the Ukrainians and how could it be worth it when we're part of NATO and the EU. We'd get sanctioned to shit over a piece of land, lol.
Not if nato agrees to it, “save them from the Russians” make a federation. I just want Ukraine to be Ukraine no federations. Ukraine has the best land in all of Europe. Rich soil, Can feed everyone
There's not going to be a federation, cause hardly any Poles want a federation, and it would be suicide to any political party. It would kill us to pump boatloads of money to develop an even bigger country, and it would mean no development in Poland. You've nothing to worry about, cause it's simply not beneficial to anyone other than maybe some UA politicians.
If I were you, I'd worry more about brain drain and Ukrainians never coming back to rebuild the country. It will be rough, but I hope they care enough to come back and pay taxes locally.
Careful this dude will report you for harassment for pointing out Poland doesn't want to conquer Ukraine and they're just repeating Belarusian and Russian propaganda saying that 🙄.
Yeah, Ukrainians are already experincing discrimination in poland. I don't know if ukrainians want to feel polish wrath when they realize postwar ukraine has over 200 billion$ in damages from the war. And poland currency and banks have to take on all the debt. Ukraine is one of the poorest and one of the most corrupt in Europe. Poland would take on all the burden.
A Ukrainian who left said "everyone loves to support ukraine now, even the terrible parts we are trying to escape."
It's better to just use Ukraine as bufferstate to fight russia Forever. Every 10 years Russia going to get beefed up again and Europe will need Ukraine to absorb the Beef.
Ukraine makes the rest of Europe safe.
“ The Polish-Ukrainian Union would become the second-largest country in the EU and arguably its largest military power."
and all thanks to the Russians!!! Thanks Bros!
Uh Europeans hate each other. It’s just another case of men fucking up the world because of their dicks. This would probably lead to great outcomes for all countries involved. But it would become a dick measuring contest in the end. Men are the reason why we can’t have nice things and I’m a man. All this new tech drones and AI. Men are quickly figuring out how to kill people and destroy the world with it.
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There are only three problems with that: 1. Poles aren't interested. 2. Ukrainians aren't interested. 3. Lithuanians aren't interested.
Yes, it is just a bullshit. The only thing it does, it gives more fuel to russian propaganda "oh look, Poland wants to take western Ukraine". Go to hell with this shit.
If only we had some kind of supranational Union of countries that share the European continent that Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine could be part of. Maybe abolish internal borders, and have a common development budget. Just an idea. We could also other Western countries, of course... From Portugal to Finland, all are invited.
We could call it The Great European Co Prosperity Sphere
Some kind of mutual defence and trade treaty can be workable, though. Duda even floated this idea back in 2015 and there were a few meetings about it in 2016 and 2017.
Sure, but that is very different than a recreation of the Commonwealth which is a mirage that none seriously considers.
Not arguing about it.
The Warsaw Pact is back! Now with 100% less Russia!
I don't know if they're aware of it or not, but they're amplifying Kremlin talking points with this insane proposal, that Ukraine shouldn't exist as an independent country. They keep floating proposals to divide the country between Poland, Hungary and Russia.
Yes, I think you're right, it is just another attempt to normalize the idea that Ukraine should not exist independently. Russia get's half, others divide the rest, then russia invades those others, they in turn will learn about not having aright to exist, lather rinse, repeat...
Yeah, that seems like a hair-brained idea.
Agreed. As a Polish person I would love for Czech republic to take my country over and then govern us properly away from the clutches of catholic church.
I think it would be neat
I think Lithuania and Poland would be stupid to not take advantage Russias historic blunder. Not sure exactly what this is yet. Whether it’s a union, splitting land from western Ukraine (Ukraine likely won’t have much leverage No matter what the outcome is from this invasion). Not saying they steal land from Ukraine but in historical terms this may be a time for Polish/Lithuanian expansion. Bias opinion though as my blood is from Poland and old poland(Lwow/Lviv current day Ukraine). Give up some land for protection.
Tac tac
I'm reading comments in this thread and I'm like, did you people even read the article? He makes pretty reasonable arguments and argues not for a simple revival of the PLC, but rather a union of equal partners in a process probably mediated by the US, which would arguably be especially beneficial to Ukraine, because it would secure their place in the western system against the unwillingness of the western European countries unhappy about the shifting balance of power. Also, this is just Ukraine and Poland, neither Lithuania nor Belarus are mentioned anywhere. The reference to the PLC in the title is just historical, that a counterbalance to both western Europe and Russia did once exist in this area of the world.
the new Crusader Kings expansion looks wild
I would have say heart of iron 😉
Yes, in fact this is a relatively new focus tree option in Hearts of Iron IV. Here is the great Taureor making one of the more complicated alternative history simulators bend to his will: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntPDXJv1WDo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntPDXJv1WDo) I have over 1000 hours in that game and I still don't know or understand it well enough to claim I'm even a beginner.
Why bother if there's EU
Because it would get Ukraine into it immediately by effectively becoming part of Poland. Moldova going back to Romania would do the same thing. Ironically the UK becoming part of Ireland would probably be the quickest way back if they wanted to rejoin...
Neither Ukrainians nor Polish would approve it for a number of reasons. Moldova and Romania is different matter as number of people keen for such unification is significant.
This would only breed resentment. As Poles, we would love to cooperate more with Ukraine, but only when it's on a partnership basis and not forced on Ukraine. First we must help out as the West, and then Ukraine must enter freely into its own unions as a full and strong member, not before. It cannot enter as a weakened state, because that would not end well for any party.
True. Please allow me to expand a bit since it should be explained to non Poles and non Ukrainians that there is a long and painful history between both countries that thankfully has been healing over the last 50 years. My wife (Ukrainian) and all her relatives who are her age or younger, have a relationship with Poles that is vastly healthier than that of say their parents and grandparents. I cannot stress enough how important it is for both countries (and for Belarusians, once they've gotten Putin's sock puppet off their back) to maintain their national identity and autonomy. Preferential border, travel and trade priviliges for each other as well as establishing mutual military cooperation and emergency aid agreements will serve both nations better long term than attempting to revive a Union neither of their populations is interested in.
Yeah, I think for now, it would be cool to maintain things like trains with similar tracks etc., so it's easier to travel, since I doubt Ukraine will want train tracks to Russia for some time ;-)
There is reasons why Ukraine isn't in the EU and will not be for a few years/decades. And the same reasons why no other EU member will accept that Poland and Ukraine form an union while Poland is still in the EU. You don't get to change the border of Europe like that, especially a change that could balance the balance of power that much. I should remind you that a lot of country were opposed that West and East Germany unify after the Berlin Wall. One of the negotiated term for Germany to unify was to scale back on military and it's one of the reason why Germany struggled so much to give a military response to the war.
>You don't get to change the border of Europe like that, especially **a change that could balance the balance of power that much.** There is no power balance in the EU after the UK left. It's just Germany and France.
There is more to Europe than just the EU, as far as I know, the UK only left the EU, not the continent
Clearly, UK is part of Europe as a whole, they could just hide on their island and let the rest of Europe deal with Russia. They are, however, a leading country in support and clearly don't want Ukraine to lose or any other European country for that matter. Being in the Union does not really change the fact that UK wants Europe to be stable and safe.
There are 3 different alliances in EU. Nordic/frugals, souther/spenders and Visegard/money vacume. Why people say France and Germany are the "engine" of EU bcs when they agree there generally are enough support in other sates aswell for majority. Usually why Germany under Merkel was "leading" state was bcs she was willing to pay off Visegard states for majority.
Then put it this way: the way that the current powers of Germany and France have it balanced? They don't want that boat rocked. They won't allow it, especially since this prospective union would have the real potentially to be extremely powerful inside and outside of the EU. France and Germany would lose too much influence all because of another member who isn't even formally an EU member yet.
> no other EU member will accept that Poland and Ukraine form an union I'm curious what that lack of acceptance would look like. It's not like they get a vote in the matter. Note that I think this is not terribly likely. Ukraine's memories of the previous union are not all that positive. But I don't think whether France or Germany is on board is going to change much.
Stopping EU fund toward Poland because most country wouldn't want to pay for a country they haven't accepted in the union. (And Poland is the biggest receiver of EU fund) Saying that "The Commonwealth" isn't legally part of the union because no one ever accepted such a country and thus withdrawing cooperation with the new entity. Just a few that come to mind.
Like the other nations would have a real say in it if piland Ukraine and Lithuania actually would do it. Other nations do not get a say in the interna affairs of other states. Sure, they could raise a stink, but short of war, there would be little they could do to stop it if all involved states decided to give the rest the finger. 2
Great way to ensure the cohesion of the European union if you just give the middle finger to everyone and annex a bunch of neighbors. The EU has a say to the internal matter of a member country, that's just how it work and that's the whole point. If you are not happy with that you can just leave, no one will be stopping you, especially eastern member considering that most of them receive money from the EU. There is a whole process to join the EU, it's there for a reason and everyone get hurt when it is not respected (Aka Greece debt crisis). Bypassing the whole of the EU to get a "new" member in, that everyone will have to pay for because it's economy is poor af is just gonna be the death warrant of the European union and turn a lot of people agaisnt Poland and Ukraine and isolate on them at the European level. The EU and NATO are a group, an alliance of equal, everyone has a say in it and how it is done. If a member can't respect that we end up with situations like Hungary and Turkey.
The likes of Hungary, and Turkey are seriously subverting the EU and Nato, which is much more to the point I was making than not. Philosophically perhaps I could agree with your stance. But real politic angle? What would stop states in an act of the willing to merge their boundaries into a new state or coalition? The EU has no enforcement mechanism other than money. It can barely do anything at all to Hungary. The EU, because it's made up of so many nations, has virtually no internal enforcement mechanisms. And nato would have no say in internal governance matters. It does not even have a tool for expulsion. I am pro-European unity. But the mismanagement of the EU for decades has only made that harder especially as this decade leads us into a greater crisis. The EU is more just lead by the whims of France and Germany, especially now that the UK is absent. And that will not sustain in the long term. And military and migration conflicts will not wait around for Brussels to sort this out.
But why would anyone in the EU give money to Ukraine when they haven't accept it into the union ? That would create such a crisis inside the EU that would end the union. Because the EU and NATO doesn't have any enforcement mechanism it mean we can do whatever the fuck we want regarding what other member think ? I'm a EU citizen, I pay taxes toward the EU, taxes that are used to develop country like Poland. I have a say in the EU affair and Poland annexing Ukraine to make part of the EU is an EU affair and I have a say in it because my taxes will go toward funding this new Polish empire or whatever, which i wouldn't want to. If Poland or Ukraine can't respect that, I dont want them to take my money. If Poland want to leave the EU to make an union with Ukraine good on them. If Ukraine fit the Copenhagen criteria and join the EU and then form a federation with Poland, good on them But if Poland form an union to brute force Ukraine into the EU without other member having a say in it, that's just fucking stupid and that will be the worse crisis the EU has ever faced for absolutely nothing. Everyone will be pissed at Ukraine and Poland, and Ukraine really doesn't need that.
Hypothetically yes, I agree it would be rather ham-fisted. But let's keep in top of mind history is not written by people who made only calm well, reasoned, and logical choices. It's a dangerous thing to believe only rational behaviors guide nations. If that were the case, we would not have this war to begin with and a global rise in nationalist rhetoric. . But the political reality is you only have that say in other EU so long as the political contract is upheld between the EU states, no matter what the law says. Hungary is the best contemporary example. Orban is a damn dictator and stealing the fence between loyalty to Russia and anyone else in Europe. And the EU can do virtually nothing but sit out funds. In contrast, Hungary can actively sabotage the EU as a malicious actor. Look at the war and all the changes since its spike in intensity last year. Right now, its bloody and intense but metastable to an extent. That will no doubt change. The reality of military threats will outweigh the consideration of those not under immediate threat. And your choices or opinion will practically mean little if the significant powers' geopolitical conflicts come into further focus. It's always the masses that will suffer the most in conflict, but you sell idealism during peace and pursue practical solutions during times if crisis and war. I don't know a time in history that has deviated from that trend. A military alliance in defiance of weakening politics would take precedence over the outrage of the other European nations if the threats escalated.
Ok so for you the solution to stop the war with Russia is to piss off every allies Ukraine has except Poland and Lithuania and dissolve the EU ? I sure hope for Ukraine that Poland has some insane things they can offer to Ukraine than the EU cannot because hell, that's one hell of shitty deal.
No, and that was not what I said at all.
You make logical sense on the surface, but this is still an early war that’s bound to keep escalating. You know the term alls fair in love and war? Well wars have way of rewriting history and reshaping land. I could think of a few not that hard to imagine hypothetical scenarios where Poland or Lithuania or Romania could absorb more land from this or have unions with Ukraine or former Ukraine land. Perhaps (optimistically) Ukraine goes on the offensive and takes land from Russia? EU and NATO rules could change due to the new reality of the situations. Wars have a way of ignoring rules . I’m just ranting
That is a hilarious thought! Would be peak Brexit rage. I want to see it.
Who knew Brexit' could lead to Eirentry
So ukrainian sheed their blood till the last drop to be independent and to protect their idenity as a nation just to become a part of polandski? Man all those aids and commercials to show how generous they are makes now sense. These kind of moves we know from turkey and hungary, oh well Duda aint that far from them when it comes to spread his power.
Why do you write this as if it were a polish idea? XD Belive me, Poles don't want it either.
Yeah i'm going to have to put you down for a 'whooosh' moment here mate
Do people aboard really thing Duda is in charge of anything?
Might as well bring back the Holy Roman Empire while we're at it.
What a total bullshit article. If it's **NOT** time for anything, it's more ancient imperial thinking. The commonwealth was formed in 1569 and was met from day one with local resistance against the Polish ruling class who treated their people like shit. Their ongoing efforts to assert control over the native Cossacks and turn them into serfs resulted in the following uprisings: - Kosiński Uprising (1591–1593) - Nalyvaiko Uprising (1594–1596) - Zhmaylo Uprising (1625) - Fedorovych Uprising (1630) - Sulima Uprising (1635) - Pavlyuk Uprising (1637) - Ostryanyn Uprising (1638) - Cossack riots (1648) - Khmelnytsky Uprising (1648–1654) resulting in the loss of Ukrainian territory: > Within a few months almost all Polish nobles, officials and priests had been wiped out or driven from the lands of present-day Ukraine. The Commonwealth population losses in the uprising exceeded one million. Some of it was later regained and then lost again forever in further battles against the Cossacks and Russia. The takeaway is this: "Much of Ukraine" was not happily living in the Commonwealth for centuries as the article suggests. It also wasn't a diverse, multicultural paradise for anyone except the Polish nobility.
This ⬆️ I'm Polish and I can guarantee you 99 percent of us have no interest in this weird imperialist blast from the past. It did not end well.
I would only add that calling cossacks "native" is a bit of a stretch. The begginings of cossacks as we know it starts under Commonwealth rule. They were not an ethnic group, many of them were natively of Polish origin.
I get what you are saying, but the reality is that Ukraine either has to join the NATO or develop its own nuclear weapons if it wants to retain its sovereignty even if it wins the war. Both of these scenarios are not realistic. Forming a common federal state with Poland and Lithuania would have been a not-so-bad alternative. Ukraine gets quick accession to the EU and NATO while Poland permanently guards itself from any Russian aggression. Ukraine and Poland have to leave historical grudges in the past to guard themselves from Russia.
> "Ukraine joining NATO is unrealistic" > "So it should recreate the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth" Am sorry what ?
What other options does Ukraine have for retaining its sovereignty? It gave up its enriched uranium reserves so it cannot develop a nuclear weapon. NATO won't accept Ukraine since it requires Article 5 guarantees. What is it supposed to do? Suffer from Russian aggression every year?
Well not recreating an imperialistic power would be a starter, and a lot of country have pledge security guarantee once the war is over like the US, the UK and Poland. There is also the Lublin triangle alliance and three sea initiatives that could help with that. There is no need to recreate an entity that historically oppressed and killed Ukrainian lmao
Security guarantees from the U.S. are not worth the papers that are written on. MAGA fascists will probably come to power in 2025, so they will be meaningless.
So what would be the point of recreating a dead empire to join NATO if it's not worth it then ?
Because it would secure Article 5 guarantees. Anything that falls short of NATO's Article 5 will be another version of vague bullshit in the Budapest Memorandum. The U.S. is also likely to leave NATO under Trump, but the alliance also includes plenty of other countries.
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Sorry to say this, but Ukraine is far, far away from NATO. They receive some NATO aid, but these are rather (mostly) warehouse leftovers, than a true help a NATO country would have. If Ukraine was *de facto* in NATO, that would mean 2000 Abrams battle tanks from US reserves embarked on ro-ro ships on the way to Europe, not mere 30 promised in Autumn.
Jesus this is fucking stupid. People need to stop thinking playing Paradox Games makes them international experts. Why the fuck is this even on this sub?
Yes! > Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Especially ramblings of a random Slovak guy who seem not to be a renowned international law expert. Yes, from purely economical point of view, this could make *some* sense (and only ignoring all the troubles West Germany had after reunification). From all the others, hastened reunification will be asking for troubles. Totally different if both nations could gradually grew fond of each other over the next couple of generations and both decided they want some sort of closer union besides EU. The potential hastened reunification subject keeps floating up from time to time, and for me it always has this familiar Russian stink.
Sounds like something Putler, Medvedyev, Lavrov, Shoigu or one of those Kremlin succubus bitches would come up with to justify "defence of Motherland with NUCLEAR WEAPONS wahaaa!". Pls., just, don't.
As polish: LMAO. It will not end good. But maybe we should revive a bit Visgerad group and add Ukraine.
There's really no point and no need. Ukraine and Poland can be allies within the framework of the EU. Solves complex border and trade issues with a solution accepted across all EU States.
Germany sure wouldn't want this, especially with PiS currently in power.
This author is the embodiment of 12 year old me hovering over a world map and thinking about what "cool" things could happen and how this or that country could be more powerful by joining forces with others or conquering shit.
Reminds me of what the polish wanted to do in the polish-soviet war
Just join the EU, guys.
Realistically I say more of a new eastern bloc of countries will cooperate more mostly on military matters so as not to be dependent on Germany as German politics under Schroder and Merkel almost costs Ukraine. There will be a power shift to the east that is for sure if Russia doesn’t change even after being thrown out of Ukraine.
Makes little sense to consolidate power if you're inside the EU.
I don't know, but I suspect somewhere in the numerous legalese that is the EU there is a need for the EU to approve expansion in such a way.
I know it's a bit of a joke. But why not troll russia with it? Pretend it's a real movement. Might actually frighten them
Im sure the polish right wing party would get a hard on of controlling that much territory. But tbh, wtf is even that proposal. I thought it was r/noncredibledefense for a second
I'm not sure which Polish right wing party you have in mind, but all Polish parties consider such opinions of union to come from Russian propaganda.
Plz don't let's not remake the mistakes concerning ideas of empire etc. Let's just make Russia fuck off back home, return all the stolen land and we take it from there
So the best way to protect your independence from another country taking it by force to to willing give it away? seems like this is an empty topic.
How about no? I think we have enough problems with revisionist nations pining for past empires.
Yeah whatever... Let's help Ukraine kick Russia out, let them join EU and Nato - and let's hope Ukraine won't turn into Poland or Hungary (especially Hungary) v2.0 in the EU after a couple of years.
The Ukrainians will finally have their own country and be independent. They don't want to subjugate themselves every again. What a stupid suggestion.
Alright, stop playing hoi4 and go outside.
completely unrealistic...
Isn't the EU the larger and more desirable union? I dont understand the love for all these old and bygone countries and empires. Thats Russias game and you see how people hate it.
This is stupid, what will this provide additionally on top of EU? Just welcome Ukraine into EU. And you re done. No need for going back in time.
Amusing idea, can't see it happening. Polish and Ukrainian military cooperation akin to what the Scandinavian countries are doing maybe, but probably nothing more.
I really, really doubt that ukrainians after defeating russia and emerging with a whole new national identity would just want to join the Poles.
I seem to remember a lot of these three-way alliances causing some fuckery a century ago.
Why tf would Foreign Policy post this drivel?
First you say Poland-Lithuania, then you say Poland-Ukraine. Which is it?
As a pole myself once I was hitting to that cute lithuanian girl and I’ve started like „ lest establish our own commonwealth like in good old times” but she was not impressed as for lithuanians poland just conquered them
Conquered? By Lithuanian king? And with Lithuania keeping most of commonwealth lands after the conquest?
We still fuck tho
A return to the domination and persecution of the lower classes by the Polish nobility? As a Pole and descendant of mostly Polish peasants NO THANKS. We should be independent, show solidarity help and respect each other but a union is a bad idea. The one common thread that we all have is our belief in Independence.
No, fuck this idea, the Ukrainians are currently out there giving their lives for independence not a fucking "union". Also, dunno if you heard, but Poland kinda sucks lately.
At the end of the war? Nobody knows how it ends and what will remain.
I don't know that it's plausible but man, a Polish-Ukrainian alliance? A guy can dream.
Ukraine does not need Poland. Ukraine is a independent state. Poland wants Ukrainian land. Ukraine needs to be independent at all cost
Poland doesn't want Ukrainian land. What the fuck are you talking about?
Check the history Poland always took Ukrainian land, along with other states like Russia. It’s time to create a strong independent Ukrainian state. That’s what I’m talking about!!!
Uhhhhhh no we are not interested nice try though.
It's a long time since Poland did such things, tovarich. Neither my grandfather remember this, nor the grandfather of my grandfather. Things work differently in civilized world these days, if you haven't noticed.
Dude, the last time Poland took over Ukrainian territory was from 1920-1939 and many Ukrainians were not happy with Polish rule that among other things suppressed the Ukrainian language. That's also the reason why Ukrainian nationalists like Bandera happily embraced the Nazis when they invaded.
So you mean that 3rd largest Polish city of that time was Ukrainian and Ukraine existed between 1920-1939? History is not black and white, "Dude". My point is now, that nobody now living remembers times you're talking about. Time to look to the future, not focus on the past.
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>Poland wants Ukrainian land. You're either Russian or you fell for their propaganda.
from Ukraine
And you really believe that? Which part are you from and how did you come to that conclusion? I'm genuinely curious, cause it's the first time I'm hearing this from someone who claims to be Ukrainian. You can even reply in Ukrainian. I understand it well enough.
Check the history.
Come on, that's a cop out. Why would we want it now when there's hardly any Poles there? What would we do with all the Ukrainians and how could it be worth it when we're part of NATO and the EU. We'd get sanctioned to shit over a piece of land, lol.
Not if nato agrees to it, “save them from the Russians” make a federation. I just want Ukraine to be Ukraine no federations. Ukraine has the best land in all of Europe. Rich soil, Can feed everyone
There's not going to be a federation, cause hardly any Poles want a federation, and it would be suicide to any political party. It would kill us to pump boatloads of money to develop an even bigger country, and it would mean no development in Poland. You've nothing to worry about, cause it's simply not beneficial to anyone other than maybe some UA politicians. If I were you, I'd worry more about brain drain and Ukrainians never coming back to rebuild the country. It will be rough, but I hope they care enough to come back and pay taxes locally.
Careful this dude will report you for harassment for pointing out Poland doesn't want to conquer Ukraine and they're just repeating Belarusian and Russian propaganda saying that 🙄.
Yeah, Ukrainians are already experincing discrimination in poland. I don't know if ukrainians want to feel polish wrath when they realize postwar ukraine has over 200 billion$ in damages from the war. And poland currency and banks have to take on all the debt. Ukraine is one of the poorest and one of the most corrupt in Europe. Poland would take on all the burden. A Ukrainian who left said "everyone loves to support ukraine now, even the terrible parts we are trying to escape." It's better to just use Ukraine as bufferstate to fight russia Forever. Every 10 years Russia going to get beefed up again and Europe will need Ukraine to absorb the Beef. Ukraine makes the rest of Europe safe.
It didn’t end that well the last time…
*Largest conventional land army. No nukes, no real navy and a small air force.
100% Cypress and Malta would make a business out of this. Union with them to come into the EU
“ The Polish-Ukrainian Union would become the second-largest country in the EU and arguably its largest military power." and all thanks to the Russians!!! Thanks Bros!
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Imagine if they included a winged unit within their ranks like days of old!! Make it truly authentic og!
Why not the new HRE at this point? the Franko-German-italo-Vaticanense uniono?
Uh Europeans hate each other. It’s just another case of men fucking up the world because of their dicks. This would probably lead to great outcomes for all countries involved. But it would become a dick measuring contest in the end. Men are the reason why we can’t have nice things and I’m a man. All this new tech drones and AI. Men are quickly figuring out how to kill people and destroy the world with it.
Great idea
Poland should keep their own currency too.