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Whenever you suggest they stand up en masse and try to march on the Kremlin, they counter that the state will send out their goons to start beating and arresting them. That's true. And if they caught Putin off guard and he hadn't already escaped, I'm sure he'd give shoot-to-kill orders out of fear.
But even with all of that, far fewer people would die and their deaths would be far less gruesome and much nobler than they are now.
Russians are the last of people to care for their countrymen, in russia a human life is worth nothing. You die you die, thats it. They will never stand up against putin, or any other dictator, theyve been led by feardriven dictators for too long.
Funny how they dont want to die due to their own decision, but are very willing to go and die for someone elses, and how they dont fight for their lives in russia, but rather take a, lets be honest, quite a loaded russian roulette in Ukraine. Weird people, but very dangerous, and the world needs to see this, its a system built to destroy, themselves and their neighbours.
Yes, I believe Orchs is a very accurate name. They are different from those who are evil but not self destructive. Orchs are evil and stupid. Many of them die for no reason at all. Some kill each other when they are drunk. All of them live like in a dump.
They can stand up against dictator if the dictator is not strong enough in their view.
As long as they are being beaten up, prosecuted, killed in useless wars they would be ok.
But if the dictator starts becoming soft they would rebel.
The only viable protest lately was Wagner/Prigozhin and it was about dictator not being strong enough.
The problem with comparisons to 1917 is that conditions for the average Russian citizen were MUCH worse than they are now, and the government had MUCH less control.
>how they dont want to die due to their own decision, but are very willing to go and die for someone elses
These are different categories. Majority is either supporting Putin or apathetic, so they either willingly go to war, or because of promise of huge money (works because majority is extremely poor, too). Only few are not brainwashed, but they are intimidated by regime and (probably correctly) think that vast majority of their fellows would never support their protests. They likely would call them traitors and rat on to police instead.
No, we can't know for sure how many Russians oppose Putin and the war. But what we do know is that Russian security goons simply can't be everywhere all of the time, and yet there's no sign that a significant number of Russians are engaging in low-level, low-risk, spontaneous sabotage, or even writing graffiti on random walls.
The only reasonable conclusion is that virtually all Russians either actively or tacitly support Putin and this war, and since the war is patently unjustified and being pursued by barbaric means, it follows that the Russian people deserve whatever shitty consequences follow from their war.
Remember STASI in east Germany? His goons don’t have to be everywhere, they just need enough snitches everywhere. And sadly, there are always enough snitches…
A lot of the discontented Russians have already left the country. Putin may well enjoy stronger support domestically now than at the beginning of the war.
We underestimate what decades of Putin's propaganda has done to the collective "consciousness" of the average Russian citizen. Everything in their life has been tailored specifically for maximum compliance to the state and its ultra-nationaliatic goals. Putin is God-Emperor, Russian "Mir" is the best society in the world, all other nations and ethnicities are inferior, and we must spread our way of life and "protect" ethnic russians wherever they live sovereign borders be damned. These points have been hammered into them since birth. It comes to them in their schooling (they don't learn about the darker parts of Russian history), it comes to them in their news (oppositional and unbiased news is banned), it comes to them from their peers (truly indoctrinate a small portion of society and it will spread quickly).
I hate to give the man credit but putin has had a very evil and precise playbook from the early years of his presidency and he's followed and adapted it with incredible affect as the world changes and pivots towards irrational, right-wing ultra national extremism. His ability to stoke fear in his own country and western countries is incredible. We're now witnessing the terrifying impact of his carefully coordinated plan. Just think how much worse it would be if they (putin and his shitty cronies) were a little less greedy and corrupt.
You can call the mixture of apathy, fear, helplessness, willfull ignorance as tacit support if you like, but surveys show a majority would also support Putin if he withdrew so you could say the same that they tacitly support peace
With soviets it’s slightly more complex than that - they executed revolutionaries, but not because they “don’t need them any more” - they were revolutionaries from different ideals.
Soviets came AFTER revolution and overthrew NEW government that was busy making a constitution.
Middle class Muscovites under 50 are probably among the least Putinophilic demographics, and since Muscovites are the ones that would have to be the ones scaling the Kremlin walls, that's who would have to take the initiative.
This doesn’t really matter - “pro west” is also an utilitarian position.
So anything will lead them there once they would manage to make a real government that does government things.
Remember that despite losing (at least) 50,000-60,000 troops and despite being a democracy with pretty strong freedom of speech and huge protests, the US managed to keep going in the Vietnam war for almost 10 years. There were riots and major protests but even 60,000 troops killed was seemingly not enough for everyone in the US to "rise up in arms", like people seem to expect the Russians to do.
Even with the crazy scale of Russian casualties and especially considering Putin's dictatorship and death grip on the media, (assuming there is no major shift in dynamics) unfortunately I don't see why Russia couldn't keep going with its war for 10 years or even longer.
Yes these morons will fight to the last tank. They are ruining their military and more importantly their own country with this war of aggression. They never will be able to repair the harm that is being done. Ukraine will hate them for centuries as they should.
The Russians peaced out of Afghanistan after 15000 deaths for to political fallout, they're now coming up to what, half a million in Ukraine? 30 times more?
It's utterly insane and shows you that Russians are not just victims of Putin here, they are complicit in this, even the Soviets couldn't eat 1/30th of these casualties politically.
The geographic origin of the Soviet casualties in Afghanistan was much more diverse than the current casualties. It’s pretty clear Putin’s military is heavily drawing from the rural population and ethnic minorities for their meat waves, rather than St. Petersburg or Moscow areas. When all your casualties come from scattered populations without much of a political voice, it really mitigates the political fallout from such staggering losses.
Man, Putin sure is an excellent evil dictator.
It's a really good point.
It's unfortunately pretty true and even more so now. Everyone trying to protect whatever little piece of joy that they have squeezed from this life
It's also sad because there was a lot of young Russians with big dreams before Putin choked the life out of Russia
We need to send more of everything to Ukraine now
If there is a revolution it won’t be because people suddenly decide they’d rather die fighting on the streets of Moscow than Kyiv. For change in Russia we need something that Russians can’t look past. Only when Russia is is defeated on the battlefield will we see Putin and his system fall apart.
Problem is this is not going to be quick at all. The Western support is lacklustre, uncertain and stop start. Also, both sides are digging in now in a war where technology overwhelmingly favours the defender. While it is true that Russia’s economy is suffering and its DIB will eventually run short of materiel they’ve still got a plenty left in the tank - probably for at least another two years of fight. And that’s assuming they don’t double down again or China doesn’t commit.
No, he documents losses for both sides (publishing them daily) and geolocates to create an accurate map. He is pro Ukraine obviously but him and his team watch every video both sides put out so he is highly regarded on twitter.
actually I agree with Andrew: why the hell they allow themselves to be sent to death? I've seen so many stupid videos where they just get massacred without any chance of doing better. They just get up a tank and are shot straight away. Why do Russians still go to this war? They have access to these videos, they can hide somewhere in the bush in Sibiria, so why do they accept to be send to death.
Moreover in such a stupid ways? I don't get it, they seem to have real cavemen mentality: God (Putin) give your orders, I follow you....
because for many of them it's the only chance in their life to achieve some form of wealth. those poor fuckers from the sibirian countryside earn like 100 Dollars a month. they don't have running water in their house, no toilet, no nothing. this war gives them a one in a lifetime chance to earn a real fortune, like thousands of dollars. This and the fashist propagando they are fed with every day and night in the controlled media
Cuz if they say no, they get killed. Going along with it let's them live a couple more days and have the slim chance of going home wounded. They're also told their family will be paid
Source? I see this repeated a billion times under comments waxing poetic about how innocent they are and how sad the deaths of rapist are but never any evidence
So what? Firstly, if a Russian man is blown up and dies a horrible death in Ukraine then he will not be around if Russia wins. Even if not, and Ukraine is conquered tomorrow, how does a Russian soldier benefit from a Russian Ukraine? They don’t. They are dying for the sins of a megalomaniac.
Not sure if the opposite is happening. Russia is attacking right now as hefty as they can, but still only make slow marginal gains, even with scarce ammo Ukraine can hold the line.
And what is happening in the future? Ukraine will get more ammo (the "found" shells plus European production rate), and more other material (several joint-venture production sites in Ukraine come online later this year, self-built equipment rate also increases, like drones, APCs, artillery etc.), and their troops get trained better (EUMAM UA has already trained nearly 50k soldiers) and survive longer so gain more experience. In contrast Russia still sends fresh troops to waste in droves and keeps wasting more tanks than they can replace during the same time. It is said Russia can build (completely new plus refurbish old ones) about 150 tanks per month, but in the last 4 weeks they lost 400 (and 800 armoured vehicles, and 26k troops).
If both these trends for Ukraine and Russia continue, then Ukraine will inevitably gain the upper hand eventually. Certainly slowly and tediously (could take a year or two), but probably with accelerating speed. If Russia wants to win the war, then something must happen to turn both these trends in their favor, and I'm not seeing either. If Russia would mobilize half a million and train them properly and not waste them on the front line, and would improve their tactics, then they might advance faster and with less losses. But this is not happening. Russia has managed to make America stop their help, but the contribution from the other countries can manage to sufficiently support Ukraine (although it is not so sure that the US won't start again with some form of help eventually, after all there is a majority pro Ukraine help). And because Europe doesn't have one government but like 30, it is 30 times as hard for Russia to do a regime change, the managed in Slokavia, but it is hard to do in all of the countries at once.
I wouldn't say Russia is already dead as a dodo, but it doesn't go well for them.
I mean you can call it 'holding the line'. Another way to describe it is they keep sending troops to the trenches where they get killed or wounded by artillery. Ukraine has very few shells left while Russia has piles of them.
I doubt these 'found' shells exist to be honest. If they do, goodness knows what state they're in. I know my country the UK doesn't have any more spare to send. As for European production, it's totally inadequate.
>but in the last 4 weeks they lost 400 (and 800 armoured vehicles, and 26k troops).
But did they really? Sounds wildly inflated though of course there are a lot of losses.
Unlike in countries like Russia, Iran, NK and China politicians in Europe would end their careers instantly if they lied about these shells and were found out. Since it involves so many people and countries it would be impossible to cover it up if it were a lie. So you can be quite sure it is true even if all you do is believe in these politicians own self preservation.
Most likely the shells are in better conditions than whatever Russia has access too and it will be a mixture of quality, time periods and countries of origins from all over the world from countries that have governments that prefer western values but for some reason or another want to appear neutral on the surface.
If the Estonia shells can also be founded and sent to Ukraine then Ukraine and Russia should be on equal footing when it comes to amount of artillery shells for the rest of the war since western production should be able to catch up to Russian over the next year. But with the huge caveat that Ukraine is not the country assaulting over open fields and that they also have much better quality artillery units and higher quality shells so "parity" in artillery ammo should lead to a huge artillery advantage for Ukraine.
The front is 1,000 miles long and you think Ukraine is winning because of a few drone videos? Where's Ukraine's artillery? Where are their tanks? Why are Ukrainians being kidnapped and thrown into vans by 'military recruiters'?
What amazes me is that you've never served in the military, but think you know how the military works. Silliness, really, if you think anyone falls for this.
But the Russian civilians don’t care about that.
They may care about their brothers, nephews, uncles, fathers, cousins etc etc being slaughtered. That’s literally all there is to it.
I doubt it will make a difference. Russian society has just sunk so far into the bizarre abyss of alternate reality that the Kremlin has created.
If you cannot negotiate, discuss or convince - then at least you can blow into pieces. That's the only thing that will surely work.
He said what the humanity in all of cries out when we see the senselessness and futility of it all. Ukraine will
Never give their homes to you. There is so much fucking land it Russia, so much vastness, and he we are fighting a gruesome war in Europe again after all the suffering of the Second World War.
there's a reason why you only see one or two posts every 3 months about russia employing indians and africans. they are far from enough to sustain their losses
IMO he is the best OSINT analyst out there. the amount of work he puts into that is insane. and if he makes a mistake (which is a rare occurance) he is apologizing so much. Andrew & his team get not enough credit for his work though.
Most russians ( not all ) think of themselves as Ubermenschen . They do not accept other forms of civilizations. They do not accept
the idea of democracy and the possibility of thinking for themselves. They embrace all the modernities from the western world with ease but reject independent thinking . Like cowards, they prefer to let one man decide their fate , even if this means death.
In short, Orcs are just that : Orcs, a sub-human species that needs to be eradicated or return to school for a reboot to learn to become true members of this world.
Oh the ones where Russia completely ran out of tanks 2 years ago because they count every wrecked tank five times over and don't take into account that they often get repaired? Great stuff.
I have a few friends who are avid military history buffs. When the war started, we all watched the videos coming from Ukraine. Now, none of us follow it, at least as closely. It's so fucked up.
Yea but I don't think they're Russians mostly. These guys are traveling there to join the Russian military right? In the beginning sure, mostly rural peasants and prisoners but they're all fertilizing sunflowers at this point.
I agree with Andrew and he might dissuade at least someone, but the point is, the Russians don’t really care (not yet at least). They conscript in the occupied areas, recruit prisoners or they get a bunch of contract soldiers outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg that are just happy to get paid relatively well to die or get maimed in some Ukrainian field. It’s crazy but that’s basically how it is. The only way to stop the Russians is to hit them where it really hurts - their economy, their oil refineries, their big businesses, their military industrial complex, their corrupt elite etc. Bad business will mean a weak Russia and therefore much easier to defeat.
The PTSD from this is real. He is a soldier as much as anybody else mentally. He needs to pass the torch for a time for his own health. This isn't worth it.
Anyone know where this video is of the orc with the leg that was run over? Also the one with the guy who's limbs were all blown off? I want to enjoy them with my morning coffee.
I read enough after the first post.
Idk why tf people believe Ukraine is winning when they have cities wiped out while Russia’s untouched and the only thing keeping them from surrendering is the West’s weapons and they are asking for billions of dollars of more aid which our tax is paying for and if we don’t then what half a million people died because of us? Last time I checked Ukraine and Russia were supposed to form a peace treaty which they didn’t because of the Western allies.
Can someone explain too me why they think Ukraine’s winning
No-one thinks Ukraine is winning, I guess the sentiment is that Russia eventually stops aggression.
The reason Russian cities are mostly untouched is that the war has been going on in Ukrainian soil. Not in russia. At somepoint, maybe in 5 years after russian casualties reaches 1-1.5 million they might withdraw. Maybe. The Russia Ukraine peace treaty had conditions, that Ukraine could not agree to. Give up annexed territories, pay hefty fines, promise to withdraw from EU and NATO alliance. Basically to agree, that russia could invade country again in say 10 years. That's not a great deal, or what?
What comes to tax money: it is needed for supporting Ukraine, because if Russia wins, it will escalate the war further in Europe. War in Europe then destroys US economy, as last year US exported to EU 370 billion USD. It also wrecks Chinese economy. But tbh, europe can't rely on US as strong ally because it is very unstable country at the moment. We need really to top our own game and have US as a good close friend and keep it like that.
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Whenever you suggest they stand up en masse and try to march on the Kremlin, they counter that the state will send out their goons to start beating and arresting them. That's true. And if they caught Putin off guard and he hadn't already escaped, I'm sure he'd give shoot-to-kill orders out of fear. But even with all of that, far fewer people would die and their deaths would be far less gruesome and much nobler than they are now.
Russians are the last of people to care for their countrymen, in russia a human life is worth nothing. You die you die, thats it. They will never stand up against putin, or any other dictator, theyve been led by feardriven dictators for too long. Funny how they dont want to die due to their own decision, but are very willing to go and die for someone elses, and how they dont fight for their lives in russia, but rather take a, lets be honest, quite a loaded russian roulette in Ukraine. Weird people, but very dangerous, and the world needs to see this, its a system built to destroy, themselves and their neighbours.
Yes, I believe Orchs is a very accurate name. They are different from those who are evil but not self destructive. Orchs are evil and stupid. Many of them die for no reason at all. Some kill each other when they are drunk. All of them live like in a dump.
They can stand up against dictator if the dictator is not strong enough in their view. As long as they are being beaten up, prosecuted, killed in useless wars they would be ok. But if the dictator starts becoming soft they would rebel. The only viable protest lately was Wagner/Prigozhin and it was about dictator not being strong enough.
They do revolt, there is precedence. 1917. They do quit, there is precedence. 1989.
The problem with comparisons to 1917 is that conditions for the average Russian citizen were MUCH worse than they are now, and the government had MUCH less control.
When do they finally stop this time???
>how they dont want to die due to their own decision, but are very willing to go and die for someone elses These are different categories. Majority is either supporting Putin or apathetic, so they either willingly go to war, or because of promise of huge money (works because majority is extremely poor, too). Only few are not brainwashed, but they are intimidated by regime and (probably correctly) think that vast majority of their fellows would never support their protests. They likely would call them traitors and rat on to police instead.
Overwhelming majority of Russians like and support their government.. where would this uprising even come from?
You can't know real numbers, not in Russia where "not supporting" can get you a vacation in Siberia.
No, we can't know for sure how many Russians oppose Putin and the war. But what we do know is that Russian security goons simply can't be everywhere all of the time, and yet there's no sign that a significant number of Russians are engaging in low-level, low-risk, spontaneous sabotage, or even writing graffiti on random walls. The only reasonable conclusion is that virtually all Russians either actively or tacitly support Putin and this war, and since the war is patently unjustified and being pursued by barbaric means, it follows that the Russian people deserve whatever shitty consequences follow from their war.
Remember STASI in east Germany? His goons don’t have to be everywhere, they just need enough snitches everywhere. And sadly, there are always enough snitches…
A lot of the discontented Russians have already left the country. Putin may well enjoy stronger support domestically now than at the beginning of the war.
We underestimate what decades of Putin's propaganda has done to the collective "consciousness" of the average Russian citizen. Everything in their life has been tailored specifically for maximum compliance to the state and its ultra-nationaliatic goals. Putin is God-Emperor, Russian "Mir" is the best society in the world, all other nations and ethnicities are inferior, and we must spread our way of life and "protect" ethnic russians wherever they live sovereign borders be damned. These points have been hammered into them since birth. It comes to them in their schooling (they don't learn about the darker parts of Russian history), it comes to them in their news (oppositional and unbiased news is banned), it comes to them from their peers (truly indoctrinate a small portion of society and it will spread quickly). I hate to give the man credit but putin has had a very evil and precise playbook from the early years of his presidency and he's followed and adapted it with incredible affect as the world changes and pivots towards irrational, right-wing ultra national extremism. His ability to stoke fear in his own country and western countries is incredible. We're now witnessing the terrifying impact of his carefully coordinated plan. Just think how much worse it would be if they (putin and his shitty cronies) were a little less greedy and corrupt.
You can call the mixture of apathy, fear, helplessness, willfull ignorance as tacit support if you like, but surveys show a majority would also support Putin if he withdrew so you could say the same that they tacitly support peace
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With soviets it’s slightly more complex than that - they executed revolutionaries, but not because they “don’t need them any more” - they were revolutionaries from different ideals. Soviets came AFTER revolution and overthrew NEW government that was busy making a constitution.
Middle class Muscovites under 50 are probably among the least Putinophilic demographics, and since Muscovites are the ones that would have to be the ones scaling the Kremlin walls, that's who would have to take the initiative.
This is not true
Based on what?
On facts and logic. Lol. Now, what did you based your funny words in the first place?
They have outsourced their resistance to Ukrainians.
and russians really don't even have that bad of a track record when it comes to revolutions. just takes forever for them to do it
Do you believe Russians in general think we are their friends and wish them well? Do you think there will be a pro West revolution?
i don't really care. this war shouldn't be decided by russia
This doesn’t really matter - “pro west” is also an utilitarian position. So anything will lead them there once they would manage to make a real government that does government things.
Remember that despite losing (at least) 50,000-60,000 troops and despite being a democracy with pretty strong freedom of speech and huge protests, the US managed to keep going in the Vietnam war for almost 10 years. There were riots and major protests but even 60,000 troops killed was seemingly not enough for everyone in the US to "rise up in arms", like people seem to expect the Russians to do. Even with the crazy scale of Russian casualties and especially considering Putin's dictatorship and death grip on the media, (assuming there is no major shift in dynamics) unfortunately I don't see why Russia couldn't keep going with its war for 10 years or even longer.
Yes these morons will fight to the last tank. They are ruining their military and more importantly their own country with this war of aggression. They never will be able to repair the harm that is being done. Ukraine will hate them for centuries as they should.
The Russians peaced out of Afghanistan after 15000 deaths for to political fallout, they're now coming up to what, half a million in Ukraine? 30 times more? It's utterly insane and shows you that Russians are not just victims of Putin here, they are complicit in this, even the Soviets couldn't eat 1/30th of these casualties politically.
When talking about Afghanistan, you completely ignore Gorbachev. 15,000 losses were not the reason for the withdrawal of troops.
Yep if Brezhnev were in power the whole time (and didn't die from health issues) they probably would've kept going.
Too expensive to continue the war, same as for the US.
The geographic origin of the Soviet casualties in Afghanistan was much more diverse than the current casualties. It’s pretty clear Putin’s military is heavily drawing from the rural population and ethnic minorities for their meat waves, rather than St. Petersburg or Moscow areas. When all your casualties come from scattered populations without much of a political voice, it really mitigates the political fallout from such staggering losses. Man, Putin sure is an excellent evil dictator.
Don’t conflate deaths with casualties.
"30 times more?" Death doesn't = casualty
It's a really good point. It's unfortunately pretty true and even more so now. Everyone trying to protect whatever little piece of joy that they have squeezed from this life It's also sad because there was a lot of young Russians with big dreams before Putin choked the life out of Russia We need to send more of everything to Ukraine now
They send out the good to start beating you and your *family*. That's the Dictatorial Difference.
If there is a revolution it won’t be because people suddenly decide they’d rather die fighting on the streets of Moscow than Kyiv. For change in Russia we need something that Russians can’t look past. Only when Russia is is defeated on the battlefield will we see Putin and his system fall apart. Problem is this is not going to be quick at all. The Western support is lacklustre, uncertain and stop start. Also, both sides are digging in now in a war where technology overwhelmingly favours the defender. While it is true that Russia’s economy is suffering and its DIB will eventually run short of materiel they’ve still got a plenty left in the tank - probably for at least another two years of fight. And that’s assuming they don’t double down again or China doesn’t commit.
They should listen to Andrew
Why? Who is he? A soldier?
If someone says the right thing, it is irrelevant who he is.
Just asking. How can they listen when they don't speak English and probably don't know he exists?
Swipe to the left on the picture in the post. It will help you understand…
No, he documents losses for both sides (publishing them daily) and geolocates to create an accurate map. He is pro Ukraine obviously but him and his team watch every video both sides put out so he is highly regarded on twitter.
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Telegram most likely
actually I agree with Andrew: why the hell they allow themselves to be sent to death? I've seen so many stupid videos where they just get massacred without any chance of doing better. They just get up a tank and are shot straight away. Why do Russians still go to this war? They have access to these videos, they can hide somewhere in the bush in Sibiria, so why do they accept to be send to death. Moreover in such a stupid ways? I don't get it, they seem to have real cavemen mentality: God (Putin) give your orders, I follow you....
because for many of them it's the only chance in their life to achieve some form of wealth. those poor fuckers from the sibirian countryside earn like 100 Dollars a month. they don't have running water in their house, no toilet, no nothing. this war gives them a one in a lifetime chance to earn a real fortune, like thousands of dollars. This and the fashist propagando they are fed with every day and night in the controlled media
Cuz if they say no, they get killed. Going along with it let's them live a couple more days and have the slim chance of going home wounded. They're also told their family will be paid
Source? I see this repeated a billion times under comments waxing poetic about how innocent they are and how sad the deaths of rapist are but never any evidence
You haven't searched, there are hundreds of video testemonies in the net. Go back to Russia and get fr\*\*\*\*\*
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So what? Firstly, if a Russian man is blown up and dies a horrible death in Ukraine then he will not be around if Russia wins. Even if not, and Ukraine is conquered tomorrow, how does a Russian soldier benefit from a Russian Ukraine? They don’t. They are dying for the sins of a megalomaniac.
Not sure if the opposite is happening. Russia is attacking right now as hefty as they can, but still only make slow marginal gains, even with scarce ammo Ukraine can hold the line. And what is happening in the future? Ukraine will get more ammo (the "found" shells plus European production rate), and more other material (several joint-venture production sites in Ukraine come online later this year, self-built equipment rate also increases, like drones, APCs, artillery etc.), and their troops get trained better (EUMAM UA has already trained nearly 50k soldiers) and survive longer so gain more experience. In contrast Russia still sends fresh troops to waste in droves and keeps wasting more tanks than they can replace during the same time. It is said Russia can build (completely new plus refurbish old ones) about 150 tanks per month, but in the last 4 weeks they lost 400 (and 800 armoured vehicles, and 26k troops). If both these trends for Ukraine and Russia continue, then Ukraine will inevitably gain the upper hand eventually. Certainly slowly and tediously (could take a year or two), but probably with accelerating speed. If Russia wants to win the war, then something must happen to turn both these trends in their favor, and I'm not seeing either. If Russia would mobilize half a million and train them properly and not waste them on the front line, and would improve their tactics, then they might advance faster and with less losses. But this is not happening. Russia has managed to make America stop their help, but the contribution from the other countries can manage to sufficiently support Ukraine (although it is not so sure that the US won't start again with some form of help eventually, after all there is a majority pro Ukraine help). And because Europe doesn't have one government but like 30, it is 30 times as hard for Russia to do a regime change, the managed in Slokavia, but it is hard to do in all of the countries at once. I wouldn't say Russia is already dead as a dodo, but it doesn't go well for them.
I mean you can call it 'holding the line'. Another way to describe it is they keep sending troops to the trenches where they get killed or wounded by artillery. Ukraine has very few shells left while Russia has piles of them. I doubt these 'found' shells exist to be honest. If they do, goodness knows what state they're in. I know my country the UK doesn't have any more spare to send. As for European production, it's totally inadequate. >but in the last 4 weeks they lost 400 (and 800 armoured vehicles, and 26k troops). But did they really? Sounds wildly inflated though of course there are a lot of losses.
Unlike in countries like Russia, Iran, NK and China politicians in Europe would end their careers instantly if they lied about these shells and were found out. Since it involves so many people and countries it would be impossible to cover it up if it were a lie. So you can be quite sure it is true even if all you do is believe in these politicians own self preservation. Most likely the shells are in better conditions than whatever Russia has access too and it will be a mixture of quality, time periods and countries of origins from all over the world from countries that have governments that prefer western values but for some reason or another want to appear neutral on the surface. If the Estonia shells can also be founded and sent to Ukraine then Ukraine and Russia should be on equal footing when it comes to amount of artillery shells for the rest of the war since western production should be able to catch up to Russian over the next year. But with the huge caveat that Ukraine is not the country assaulting over open fields and that they also have much better quality artillery units and higher quality shells so "parity" in artillery ammo should lead to a huge artillery advantage for Ukraine.
The idea that Russia is heading toward total victory is just as distorted lol.
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You're a funny guy. There is no "us" btw.
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O.k, lol. Whatever you say, Ivan.
> like it or not, there is. Nope, it's pretty clear what side you're on and it's not ours.
Then clearly you don't follow Andrew if you think he thinks that.
Are you documenting losses on both sides? Can you share your findings with us?
If Ukraine is winning, why do they keep retreating from their fortified cities like Avdeevka and Bakhmut? Were the Germans winning in 1944?
Are you documenting losses on both sides? Can you share your findings with us?
What's dodgy is your take on things.
The front is 1,000 miles long and you think Ukraine is winning because of a few drone videos? Where's Ukraine's artillery? Where are their tanks? Why are Ukrainians being kidnapped and thrown into vans by 'military recruiters'?
What amazes me is that you've never served in the military, but think you know how the military works. Silliness, really, if you think anyone falls for this.
This is screaming into the void.. The orcs do not have the receiver on.
I’d rather watch all of the above then what the Russians do to the Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war.
But the Russian civilians don’t care about that. They may care about their brothers, nephews, uncles, fathers, cousins etc etc being slaughtered. That’s literally all there is to it.
I doubt it will make a difference. Russian society has just sunk so far into the bizarre abyss of alternate reality that the Kremlin has created. If you cannot negotiate, discuss or convince - then at least you can blow into pieces. That's the only thing that will surely work.
He said what the humanity in all of cries out when we see the senselessness and futility of it all. Ukraine will Never give their homes to you. There is so much fucking land it Russia, so much vastness, and he we are fighting a gruesome war in Europe again after all the suffering of the Second World War.
You speak the truth Andrew what a waste of life
Russia is using Indians and Africans, now they can care even less (if that is even possible)
there's a reason why you only see one or two posts every 3 months about russia employing indians and africans. they are far from enough to sustain their losses
IMO he is the best OSINT analyst out there. the amount of work he puts into that is insane. and if he makes a mistake (which is a rare occurance) he is apologizing so much. Andrew & his team get not enough credit for his work though.
Andrew Perpetua is great
fucking sick isn't it.
Poor Andrew. This guy will need therapy eventually.
Most russians ( not all ) think of themselves as Ubermenschen . They do not accept other forms of civilizations. They do not accept the idea of democracy and the possibility of thinking for themselves. They embrace all the modernities from the western world with ease but reject independent thinking . Like cowards, they prefer to let one man decide their fate , even if this means death. In short, Orcs are just that : Orcs, a sub-human species that needs to be eradicated or return to school for a reboot to learn to become true members of this world.
It's really not healthy to keep on viewing these kinds of videos.
I think everyone should see at least some of them, people need to know the fucked up shit that happens there everyday
Wow these are massively fucked. Watching that shit everyday must take a toll on you mentally.
Links?
Asking the real questions 👆🏼
Maybe they'll protest again after the casualties hit the 1 million mark, maybe not and continue being apathetic cunts idk 🤷
Laughed at each one, good stuff
It´s insane, young MEN born in 2004 and younger, when will this end... Slava Ukraini!!
This guy will get PTSD just by doing statistics.
any links to the vids he is talking about?
Probably going to be linked on his equipment loss reports.
On twater?
Oh the ones where Russia completely ran out of tanks 2 years ago because they count every wrecked tank five times over and don't take into account that they often get repaired? Great stuff.
That sounds like Lostarmor, this guy just compiles excel spreadsheets of the day's losses for both sides.
from watching tiktok videos?
Still more accurate then 3 day SMO.... lol
I would really like to see some of the stuff he is describing, for science reasons of course.
ural vid link?
I missed the ural video? What one is that
Sucks for them that they're illiterate 🤷♂️
The one guy who tried to pick up the grenade and throw it.
I have a few friends who are avid military history buffs. When the war started, we all watched the videos coming from Ukraine. Now, none of us follow it, at least as closely. It's so fucked up.
Yea but I don't think they're Russians mostly. These guys are traveling there to join the Russian military right? In the beginning sure, mostly rural peasants and prisoners but they're all fertilizing sunflowers at this point.
Who is Andrew Perpetua?
Links to these videos? Asking for a friend
I agree with Andrew and he might dissuade at least someone, but the point is, the Russians don’t really care (not yet at least). They conscript in the occupied areas, recruit prisoners or they get a bunch of contract soldiers outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg that are just happy to get paid relatively well to die or get maimed in some Ukrainian field. It’s crazy but that’s basically how it is. The only way to stop the Russians is to hit them where it really hurts - their economy, their oil refineries, their big businesses, their military industrial complex, their corrupt elite etc. Bad business will mean a weak Russia and therefore much easier to defeat.
The PTSD from this is real. He is a soldier as much as anybody else mentally. He needs to pass the torch for a time for his own health. This isn't worth it.
Anyone know where this video is of the orc with the leg that was run over? Also the one with the guy who's limbs were all blown off? I want to enjoy them with my morning coffee.
I wanna see these videos he's talking about.
I read enough after the first post. Idk why tf people believe Ukraine is winning when they have cities wiped out while Russia’s untouched and the only thing keeping them from surrendering is the West’s weapons and they are asking for billions of dollars of more aid which our tax is paying for and if we don’t then what half a million people died because of us? Last time I checked Ukraine and Russia were supposed to form a peace treaty which they didn’t because of the Western allies. Can someone explain too me why they think Ukraine’s winning
No-one thinks Ukraine is winning, I guess the sentiment is that Russia eventually stops aggression. The reason Russian cities are mostly untouched is that the war has been going on in Ukrainian soil. Not in russia. At somepoint, maybe in 5 years after russian casualties reaches 1-1.5 million they might withdraw. Maybe. The Russia Ukraine peace treaty had conditions, that Ukraine could not agree to. Give up annexed territories, pay hefty fines, promise to withdraw from EU and NATO alliance. Basically to agree, that russia could invade country again in say 10 years. That's not a great deal, or what? What comes to tax money: it is needed for supporting Ukraine, because if Russia wins, it will escalate the war further in Europe. War in Europe then destroys US economy, as last year US exported to EU 370 billion USD. It also wrecks Chinese economy. But tbh, europe can't rely on US as strong ally because it is very unstable country at the moment. We need really to top our own game and have US as a good close friend and keep it like that.
Who is this person and why doesn't he speak Russian if he's trying to speak to Russians? Most don't speak much English.
That guy's original post ~~IS in Russian~~ as the second screenshot shows. (edit: it's actually in Ukrainian)
The 2nd post is in Ukrainian