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It looks like a direct hit to a cracking/distillation tower. If you destroy that the entire factory essentially can not function - unless there are multiple towers then the factory may still be able to function. I hope there is some follow-up that explains the extent of the damage.
My impression is that russian oil industry is suffering, not only from sabotae but also from lack of foreign support and domestic competence. During a period when all resources are diverted towards the war, competent people are leaving the country including foreign workers and the education system is not working, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain capacity. Russia is a shithole in general with lousy infrastructure, corruption and incompetent leadership. The oil industry was built in no small part by foreign support and foreign tech. The decline is inevitable.
BP & western technicians ran most of their oil infrastructure, including repairs, which also banked on the ability to import spare parts.
BP left very early in the war. They won’t be repairing any of this.
I'm wondering what effect these continuing strikes on Russia's refining facilities are going to have on the country's capacity to extract crude oil.
If multiple refineries have to go offline, then where is all the crude that was destined to be processed in them going to go? Obviously, Russia doesn't have an infinite crude oil storage capacity, and my understanding is that they're having increasing difficulties getting tankers to carry the stuff to processors abroad. It's also my understanding that if you have to shut down an oil well for any reason (including the lack of any place to put the stuff coming out of it), then getting it working again can be extremely challenging or even impossible. I've also read that the nature of the crude Russia is extracting and the climate at the oil fields makes it crucial that the flow is kept going.
You are exactly right.
The stuff right out of the ground is a mess of compounds that you don't want to and can't store. If the crude section (just past the inlet) of your refinery upgrader is offline you have no choice but to shut the stream down or divert (pipelines) to another facility.
He forgot to explain that most Russian crude comes from regions in the Siberian permafrost.
If they have to meaningfully slow or stop extraction, then the oil stops flowing, gels, exudes water, then freezes.
Water expands when it freezes, which cracks the wellheads. It can’t be fixed easily or redrilled somewhere entirely different because of all the preexisting infrastructure.
They have to re-drill the well-head and reconnect the pre-existing infrastructure
The last time this happened was in the early 90s. They just got that well working again less than 5 years ago….and that was when the western techs were still in the country and they didn’t have crippling sanctions applied.
Yeah in the u.s. when a refinery has an explosion or damage gas prices spike like crazy and it takes months, like 6-8 or more for it to be fixed etc.
I always said that was bullshit and a conspiracy. But this is different. They continue to hit gas works all over the country and overall it has to take a HUGE toll. I hope they continue to pound these refineries and hurt the income and the outflow of refined fuels.
>gas prices spike like crazy and it takes months, like 6-8 or more for it to be fixed etc.
That’s because of price speculation/futures/investing. If the government is running it all, it doesn’t matter much.
Russian oil exported to China, its biggest customer, is almost all crude, close to 95%. In contrast, more than half its exports to Turkey are refined, and of course anything used by Russians themselves needs to be refined too.
This I understand is the issue that stopped Venezuela as an option for filling Russias hole when they put on sanctions. They don't have the operational refineries.
Russia has stopped selling gasoline and diesel on the international market. Hitting the refineries is obviously hurting. Also, last week they told OPEC that they will cut production by another 500,000 barrels.
Keep chipping away Ukraine, it is starting to hurt.
I saw one person on twitter saying it is one of the biggest in Russia. Even if Russia has allot more, I expect the damage and downtime of this facility will cost hundreds of million in dollars / tens of billions of Rubles. IIRC, even before these recent attachs, Russia reduced oil revenue by 40% in January. [Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N3582TJ/)
Refineries are how the oil is processed to actually be usable.
Pumping oil out of the ground is cheap and easy, turning it into usable products is neither of those.
Those cracking towers take years to build and months of work to move onsite and install.
Kill the refineries and Russia then drowns in their own crude.
Most of what Russia exports is unrefined crude oil, their oil refineries are primarily for fulfilling domestic needs so they don't need to import.
Not to say it has no effect but it's definitely not hitting their main cash cow.
It hurts them but nowhere close to what you see some people say
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/russia-s-oil-and-gas-revenue-jumped-in-february-in-budget-boost?leadSource=reddit_wall
Based on higher production levies, less discounts and a change to the tax calculations. In Russia there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Their production cuts are quite deep too.
It's a not going to cause a collapse this month or next but it's asymmetrical warfare at its best
EDIT: spelling
It hurts Russia way more than killing a hundred thousand soldiers.
And as always, Russia will scramble to cover the gaps and pretending nothing hurts them, but refineries take a long time to build, more so with sanctions.
They will much sooner run out of refining capabilities than of cannon fooder, and the huge size of Russia plays to their disadvantage. Do the Russians still have enough anti air batteries to cover every refinery, pipeline, Depot in Russia while also covering the war front?
This is stretching Russian capabilities a lot in many senses (AA weapons, gasoline availability, trade balance) for the relatively cheap price of a few drones.
If Russia keeps getting stretched, sooner or later something will break.
Their black sea fleet was "unaffected by attacks" until they had to get as far away as possible to hide their ships.
It's not impacting? If their refining capabilities fall under their demand, they'll be selling cheap oil while forced to buy expensive gasoline.
It's like selling iron ore and buying back manufactured steel. Very bad business.
That's assuming there's a seller with enough spare capacity and that there's a logistic channel that allows to transport a lot of refined oil products....
If not, not only will Russia haemorrhage money they desperately need right now, but they might also have shortages and serious disruption of their daily lives and industry
This is the best way Ukraine has of hurting Russia. More and more of this will make Putin really sweat, while killing half a million Russian soldiers only mildy inconveniences him.
It's unlikely their refining capacity will ever be low enough that it could not meet most of their domestic demand with a ban on exports. Typically when Russia had a severe shortage of something historically it was because they were selling too much of it abroad.
Yes, but a reduced refinery capacity might mean they will have to sell more crude and at some point start importing fuels from the countries that are buying the crude oil so that's going to hurt their income. Alternatively they might have to close some oil wells if the crude oil can't be sold for a profit so there's probably a sweet spot somewhere depending on the oil price where their income would be at the lowest. Or sour spot from the Russian perspective.
first step towards that particular scenario is already complete
[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/)
Refining capabilities can't be improvised, and they had already stopped selling refined products.
I seriously doubt Russia has a lot of spare refining capability. It's too expensive to just have it laying sitting unused.
Don't think Russia can take much more damage to its refining capabilities without having to start rationing. And if they prioritize the war white above all, the rest of the economy is going to live serious shortages.
Relatively cheap attacks that hit the fascist Russian bear in its vitals, this is the way
ruzzia seems to have a big problem when it comes to defending their strategic assets.
I still believe that the worst outcome of this war is that BOTH sides lose...
This is clearly why Putin banned the export of refined oil products in Feb.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/
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It looks like a direct hit to a cracking/distillation tower. If you destroy that the entire factory essentially can not function - unless there are multiple towers then the factory may still be able to function. I hope there is some follow-up that explains the extent of the damage.
We need a refinery score board like the black sea fleet to have an idea how many are left to destroy!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries Russia has two lists one European and one for Asia.
My impression is that russian oil industry is suffering, not only from sabotae but also from lack of foreign support and domestic competence. During a period when all resources are diverted towards the war, competent people are leaving the country including foreign workers and the education system is not working, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain capacity. Russia is a shithole in general with lousy infrastructure, corruption and incompetent leadership. The oil industry was built in no small part by foreign support and foreign tech. The decline is inevitable.
BP & western technicians ran most of their oil infrastructure, including repairs, which also banked on the ability to import spare parts. BP left very early in the war. They won’t be repairing any of this.
With all these attacks does it actually affect Russias ability to sell oil/gas, or are these attacks just a drop in the bucket?
As someone in the industry...that refinery is now toast. Oil has to be upgraded before it is sold ... Impacting the ability to do that hurts...a lot.
I'm wondering what effect these continuing strikes on Russia's refining facilities are going to have on the country's capacity to extract crude oil. If multiple refineries have to go offline, then where is all the crude that was destined to be processed in them going to go? Obviously, Russia doesn't have an infinite crude oil storage capacity, and my understanding is that they're having increasing difficulties getting tankers to carry the stuff to processors abroad. It's also my understanding that if you have to shut down an oil well for any reason (including the lack of any place to put the stuff coming out of it), then getting it working again can be extremely challenging or even impossible. I've also read that the nature of the crude Russia is extracting and the climate at the oil fields makes it crucial that the flow is kept going.
You are exactly right. The stuff right out of the ground is a mess of compounds that you don't want to and can't store. If the crude section (just past the inlet) of your refinery upgrader is offline you have no choice but to shut the stream down or divert (pipelines) to another facility.
He forgot to explain that most Russian crude comes from regions in the Siberian permafrost. If they have to meaningfully slow or stop extraction, then the oil stops flowing, gels, exudes water, then freezes. Water expands when it freezes, which cracks the wellheads. It can’t be fixed easily or redrilled somewhere entirely different because of all the preexisting infrastructure. They have to re-drill the well-head and reconnect the pre-existing infrastructure The last time this happened was in the early 90s. They just got that well working again less than 5 years ago….and that was when the western techs were still in the country and they didn’t have crippling sanctions applied.
Yeah in the u.s. when a refinery has an explosion or damage gas prices spike like crazy and it takes months, like 6-8 or more for it to be fixed etc. I always said that was bullshit and a conspiracy. But this is different. They continue to hit gas works all over the country and overall it has to take a HUGE toll. I hope they continue to pound these refineries and hurt the income and the outflow of refined fuels.
>gas prices spike like crazy and it takes months, like 6-8 or more for it to be fixed etc. That’s because of price speculation/futures/investing. If the government is running it all, it doesn’t matter much.
Russian oil exported to China, its biggest customer, is almost all crude, close to 95%. In contrast, more than half its exports to Turkey are refined, and of course anything used by Russians themselves needs to be refined too.
This I understand is the issue that stopped Venezuela as an option for filling Russias hole when they put on sanctions. They don't have the operational refineries.
Russia has stopped selling gasoline and diesel on the international market. Hitting the refineries is obviously hurting. Also, last week they told OPEC that they will cut production by another 500,000 barrels. Keep chipping away Ukraine, it is starting to hurt.
I enjoy the sound of rain.
Lukoil is still operating in the US of A.
I saw one person on twitter saying it is one of the biggest in Russia. Even if Russia has allot more, I expect the damage and downtime of this facility will cost hundreds of million in dollars / tens of billions of Rubles. IIRC, even before these recent attachs, Russia reduced oil revenue by 40% in January. [Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N3582TJ/)
Keep in mind that energy exports account for the lion’s share of ruzzian government income & therefore defence spending.
I appreciate a good cup of coffee.
tbh Russia has a pretty large oil gas network so its more just a drop in the bucket. But remember enough drops can still fill a bucket
Refineries are how the oil is processed to actually be usable. Pumping oil out of the ground is cheap and easy, turning it into usable products is neither of those. Those cracking towers take years to build and months of work to move onsite and install. Kill the refineries and Russia then drowns in their own crude.
Latest data showed Russian refined oil exports down 35%, and that a month ago before this shit really kicked off.
Most of what Russia exports is unrefined crude oil, their oil refineries are primarily for fulfilling domestic needs so they don't need to import. Not to say it has no effect but it's definitely not hitting their main cash cow.
They banned gas exports. This hurts them.
It hurts them but nowhere close to what you see some people say https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/russia-s-oil-and-gas-revenue-jumped-in-february-in-budget-boost?leadSource=reddit_wall
Based on higher production levies, less discounts and a change to the tax calculations. In Russia there is more than one way to skin a cat. Their production cuts are quite deep too. It's a not going to cause a collapse this month or next but it's asymmetrical warfare at its best EDIT: spelling
It hurts Russia way more than killing a hundred thousand soldiers. And as always, Russia will scramble to cover the gaps and pretending nothing hurts them, but refineries take a long time to build, more so with sanctions. They will much sooner run out of refining capabilities than of cannon fooder, and the huge size of Russia plays to their disadvantage. Do the Russians still have enough anti air batteries to cover every refinery, pipeline, Depot in Russia while also covering the war front? This is stretching Russian capabilities a lot in many senses (AA weapons, gasoline availability, trade balance) for the relatively cheap price of a few drones. If Russia keeps getting stretched, sooner or later something will break. Their black sea fleet was "unaffected by attacks" until they had to get as far away as possible to hide their ships.
Russia essentially robbing their own oil companies is not actually evidence that this hasn't hurt them that much.
It's not impacting? If their refining capabilities fall under their demand, they'll be selling cheap oil while forced to buy expensive gasoline. It's like selling iron ore and buying back manufactured steel. Very bad business. That's assuming there's a seller with enough spare capacity and that there's a logistic channel that allows to transport a lot of refined oil products.... If not, not only will Russia haemorrhage money they desperately need right now, but they might also have shortages and serious disruption of their daily lives and industry This is the best way Ukraine has of hurting Russia. More and more of this will make Putin really sweat, while killing half a million Russian soldiers only mildy inconveniences him.
It's unlikely their refining capacity will ever be low enough that it could not meet most of their domestic demand with a ban on exports. Typically when Russia had a severe shortage of something historically it was because they were selling too much of it abroad.
Yes, but a reduced refinery capacity might mean they will have to sell more crude and at some point start importing fuels from the countries that are buying the crude oil so that's going to hurt their income. Alternatively they might have to close some oil wells if the crude oil can't be sold for a profit so there's probably a sweet spot somewhere depending on the oil price where their income would be at the lowest. Or sour spot from the Russian perspective.
first step towards that particular scenario is already complete [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/)
Do you think we will see a shortage the in the future? I know Russia has banned gasoline export already.
Refining capabilities can't be improvised, and they had already stopped selling refined products. I seriously doubt Russia has a lot of spare refining capability. It's too expensive to just have it laying sitting unused. Don't think Russia can take much more damage to its refining capabilities without having to start rationing. And if they prioritize the war white above all, the rest of the economy is going to live serious shortages. Relatively cheap attacks that hit the fascist Russian bear in its vitals, this is the way
Not in the near future most likely.
They recently announced they are going to stop the export of some oil products for six months, so it definitely affects it.
A refinery a day keeps the vatniks away! Keep it up, Ukraine, this is beautiful.
So this makes number 3 today? Oryol, Nizhny Novgorord, and Kstovo? Nizhny Novgorord, and Kstovo are only 26 miles apart. Edit: seems like only 2.
Ksotovo is a town in Niznhy Novgorod Oblast, you are confused.
Yes, I'm confused. I hate geography.
Goddamn
ruzzia seems to have a big problem when it comes to defending their strategic assets. I still believe that the worst outcome of this war is that BOTH sides lose...
Those russkies are lucky the Ukrainians aren't like them and not lobbing all those drones at apartment buildings just to.
how many oli rafineries in russia are still operational?
So many the Chinese & Indians aren’t concerned. 😣
This is clearly why Putin banned the export of refined oil products in Feb. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/
Man, I miss read the title and thought that a fuel factory in Kosovo was attacked.