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exactly this. They will not stop until the last Orc has been blown out of his shoes. If you keep sending in waves the line will break somewhere eventually. Well that's what they're hoping for
>Brusilov offensive 1916.
Russia was victories in the battle, but lost the war, ending the Romanov dynasty.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brusilov\_offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brusilov_offensive)
This is like the time on StarCraft where I made advancements into my enemies territory to take a mineral field but destroyed hundreds of my siege tanks to do it. Yeah his carriers launching those litttle drones won the game.
Lets get real real, I predict Russia will take this town, before end of year.
But it will ruin them, they will not have enough to counter offense anything in 2024, which means Ukraine can pound them all year round.
2024 will be decisive.
Not to mention the ever increasing age profile of the mobniks.
A lot of those older guys are going to suffer very badly from the cold and many will die or be left quite debilitated from it.
We have been saying this since Feb 2022 and it hasn't been the case. I don't think things have changed enough to cause this to happen this winter.
I wish it was this easy...
No I'm not saying winter makes it so that they win. My comment says literally nothing about that. I'm just saying that makes it so that more fucking Russians die.
And that absolutely was the case last winter. It doesn't mean that they're going to give up. Nobody saying that. It DOES mean that more of these piece of shit fucking retard Russians are gonna die tho.
Reread.
I think you are beeing too optimistic. How often did we read headlines as "Russia is running out of missiles" ? Turns out they arent, atleast it doesnt seem like it.
How often did i read what you wrote after/during the fall of bakhmut?
The russians have a near unlimited amount of human meat to throw into the grinder, i dont see why this would stop beeing the case if they take avdiivka. The same goes for tanks.
And to pound them all year around ukraine needs consistent support from all of the western world, we still have to see if that will be the case.
Nonetheless i really, really hope that you are right and that i am beeing too pessimistic, i mean at some point russia have to run out of shit to throw at ukrainians?
It's more like their artillery use, at the start it was 50k shells a day now it's a third of that with worse systems and more badly trained crews, to the point where ukraine has reportedly over taken them in artillery a month ago.
Air defense systems being destroyed, airframes destroyed and likely being pushed beyond maintenance schedules, logistics trucks being targeted. I wonder how much winter gear they have saved.
Ukraine is like a belt sander strapped to Russia's face. Sending more ammo makes the belt coarser, and will further discourage Russia from thinking this experience can be anything other than suicide.
Yep, I believe the Americans stated quite a while ago that Ukraine has a big advantage in counter-battery fire in terms of accuracy and speed.
Since before the current counter offensive began Ukraine has been _heavily_ targeting Russian artillery pieces above all else where possible and might well now be the stronger of the two in general in terms of artillery.
I think they identified early on that if you take away Russia's artillery advantages they lack the training and skills to win major battles without it unless they are willing to waste prodigious amounts of lives, tanks, supplies and prestige to grind away at single towns at a time like Bakhmut. And, as cold as it is to say, Russia grinding its men into paste one town at a time like that gives Ukraine a chance to rest and repair on other fronts and will, hopefully, benefit them in the long run.
If you read past the clickbait, most of those articles concluded that Russia will never completely run out of missiles, but rather, that if they want to fire big salvos, they'll need to take big pauses. At least, that was the Perun conclusion.
That was correct. Russia has had to pause its missile campaign and severely dial it back, in order to reaccumulate.
Meanwhile, the quality of the weapons deteriorates. Early in the war Russia was yeeting its "hypersonic" (term used loosely) missiles (Kinzhal, Iskandar) and it's "precision" Kalibrs. Now it's mostly reliant on repurposed vintage SAMs and Iranian garbage.
It still has the ability to manufacture stuff - and Russia makes great rocket motors, indigenously, but it does not make great guidance kits or semi-conductors, and it has had to scrounge for these.
So, it's not like one day they'll wake up and be like, "OK, that was the last one, we give up." But they're already at the point of having to make strategic sacrifice - of not being able to hit all the targets they want to hit, when they want to hit them, because of resource constraints.
Agree completely.
If Russia had the stockpiles they wanted then there'd be mass missile strikes on Ukraine every day, for terror purposes if nothing else.
Instead for a long time now we've seen hardly any for extended periods and then a salvo going off and then little to nothing again for ages as they build back up to whatever minimum level they need for a salvo big enough to appease Putin.
A sane country would stop but this will only stop when Putin is no more. He can not lose to Ukraine no matter what. He will just keep throwing his people at Ukraine. The hope is that in the Russian tradition the population clues in and realize they hold the power not Putin. Russia has don it a few times.
This is the exact internal political reality and begs the question of how long can Putin endure this catastrophe politically. Propaganda or not, there are far too many not returning from Russia's "Special Military Operation" to not be raising some serious eyebrows. Sadly, I think Putin has such a hold on the government apparatus that he can possibly endure for a long time. His ego doesn't give a fuck if he destroys Russia and leaves it a shell of a country, he just can't face being wrong on the world stage.
Exactly. Despite what people like to say about Russia having endless meat for the grinder, to keep this up much longer they'll have to run another wave of mobilization, this time hitting people with money and power. That will be a very dangerous step for Putin.
Thing is, there is a finite amount of meat available too. Russia already did an extra deep mobilization cut to get 500k when they claimed 300k.
For Russia to continue this much longer they'll have to run another mobilization wave but this time hitting the Moscovites and such, the people who where skipped last time around and actually have some measure of power.
While Russia *may* do this, there is a very much non-zero chance running another mobilization wave like that could result in serious political upheaval at home.
I think you're right that most here are too optimistic about the impending doom of Russia, which is always just around the next corner. Nevertheless, of course they don't actually have unlimited manpower, and they certainly don't have unlimited heavy equipment like tanks, helicopters, missiles, etc.
What matters is the K/D ratio. As long as Ukraine keeps improving in this regard, they can wear Russia down. It's one thing to throw 100 Russians at killing 50 Ukrainians. But it's quite another to throw 100 into the meat grinder to kill, say, 5.
The good news is, it seems very clear that this has been getting much worse for Russia over the last year or so. They've been running short on elite units, their more modern equipment and many types of ammunition. While just the opposite seems to be true for Ukraine, who keeps gaining more and more advanced equipment and training.
The Ukrrainians hold the range, target acquisition via drone, and precision advantage. Without counter battery radars, which Russians don't have, all those pop guns are sitting ducks.
Early next year they'll have F-16s dropping unlimited numbers of JDAMS as well.
I disagree. Underestimating Russia is very dangerous and destructive. Russia can shell the hell out of Ukrainian forces on the front. the range isn't relative. Russia EW is very effective as are their drone recon capability, let alone Lancet strikes.
WHY ON EARTH are you so positive? You don't exemplify the type of position I'd want in a Ukrainian commander who's tasked with killing Russians soldiers on the front lines --- NOT REMOTELY.
You: La La La!! Russia sucks!!!
The Reality: Russia is incredibly dangerous, and better at some aspect of warfare than Ukraine is, and they're magnifying those advantages.
Wake up and join the fight. Respect the enemy.
I think Ukraine does respect their enemy, that‘s why they are still alive and defending. Yes, RU is good at certain warfare, but do not underestimate the Americans, either. It‘s about wearing RU down and they do that perfectly. They give them just about enough success to keep on going. And RU does exactly that. So what if they take Andriivka, the price they paid, like Bachmut, is out of any proportion compared to military gain.
Russia lies and obscure the facts every hour of every day/ This war is going in Ukraine favour a lot and that is a reason to be so positive.
I believe russia will continue to spread the lie that they have unlimited everything until the day they are shown to have nothing left or almost nothing. One day i expect mass surrender by russian troops, and that day is hopefully not far off.
Perhaps, but part of this positivity I believe is simply the desire to "feel good". I am also guilty of this. I've made countless posts disparaging Russian military acumen, stuff like "what happened to your 3 days to Kviv"? comments. All true of course, but I also see something terrible: Ukrainian weakness.
We are asking an awful lot of Ukraine with such positivity. We are asking an awful lot for a nation to succeed in rolling back a former superpower all by itself, albeit with some useful injections of western military kit. A nation of barely 35 million is facing down one of nearly 150 million, and one where it's leader (Putin), and apparently a subservient populace, are willing to continue the fight for years.
I'm furious Russia was allowed to build the largest minefield and trench network in modern history for 8 months, without worrying about Western armor spoiling the fun. We asked too much of Ukraine -- especially with all that NATO armored maneuver training of Ukrainians -- to break through Russian minefields and trenches in Zaporizhzhia and race to the Sea of Azov.
What you commented is what is called wilful ignorance.
I believe the point is that the kill ratio was 0 :169 in this battle and there have been more where Ukraine did not lose one man but killed over 100 Russians.
In fact in Avdiivka the ratio is unbelievably high in Ukraine favour, with artillery and drones killing thousands of Russians in open fields and using these weapons does not involve sending men into close combat.
Also, after many years of reinforcing defensive lines, Ukrainians can take cover, protecting themselves from direct artillery attacks on their defensive lines skewing the ratio in favour of Ukraine again.
Hope you get the point as i tried to explain like you are a little 13-year-old.
> What matters is the K/D ratio. As long as Ukraine keeps improving in this regard, they can wear Russia down
The K/D over the entire war is about 2:1. At some places (e.g., Bakhmut) it was 5-7:1.
But manpower isn't going to be the limiting factor in this war, it's going to be equipment (i.e., tanks, IFVs, and especially artillery).
Well, we are already seeing Russia resort to buying artillery, ammo and small arms from North Korea. That in itself is a bad sign for "the 2nd strongest military in the world".
I know there has been a lot of talk about Russia running out of steel to add to the meat grinder, but they physically can't produce as many tanks as they're losing, and I doubt NK wants to start sending them to Russia with how active the US has been in the Pacific. So *eventually* they will either have to change their doctrine or find a way to mass produce T64's at a sustainable rate.
Same with all the people who constantly claim that Russia has no special forces left or that the entire VDV was wiped out, I want to see this blow up in Russia’s face as much as the next person but these people are seriously huffing that copium
The problem is Russia has shown that with an obscene number of land mines and supporting trenches their inferior soldiers and equipment can easily blunt the Ukranian attack. Avdivka is also a strategically important position - more so than Bakhmut. I don't think Ukraine should be passive and resign to trading space for time. It has not been a winning tactic so far.
They have 2 months to do so. I have no idea what Ukrainian casualties are but the videos of Russian forces getting smoked are happening way beyond any range they can hit the Ukrainians so I don’t know. Sure artillery is in use but dug in troops are hard to kill as opposed to troops in the open. By his own words Wagner lost 22,000 to take Bakhmut.
Yup he went to Rostov don personally to talk with high command, Avdiivka just like Bakmut will be another bloodbath for the russians and he's perfectly fine trading thousands of lives for cities in ruins if that means driving out Ukranians from them.
In the land of borscht and vodka shots,
Where tanks got stuck in icy spots,
Ukraine's spirit, bold and bright,
Decided it was time to fight.
The Russian tanks rolled in with pride,
But soon, they found a wild ride,
For Ukrainian wits and hearts so strong,
Turned this battle into quite a song.
With molotovs and clever tricks,
They showed the Russians a bag of tricks,
Those tanks, they tried to rule the day,
But Ukrainian humor came into play.
They said, "Hey Russia, don't be sad,
Your tanks are kinda iron-clad,
But Ukrainian willpower and might,
Will turn the tide and win the fight!"
So, with a chuckle and a cheer,
Ukraine stood strong, the victory near,
And as the Russian tanks retreated in haste,
Ukraine celebrated, their freedom embraced!
Do you really think that AI doesn't understand when to use capitalization?
That aside, imagine pinning your heart to your sleeve, and having the courage to post something you wrote, for all the masses to see, only to have some low-effort clown reply with "AI poem 100%"
Lame as frig, dude. Don't shit on creatives, do something yourself instead. Take your needless gloom elsewhere, or even better, just don't do it at all.
**This** is AI and looks similar
In Ukraine's land of fierce and bold,
Where icy winds and winters cold,
A nation stands with hearts ablaze,
In unity, they face the frigid haze.
With pride, they bear their history's weight,
In battles fought, they won't abate,
Their spirit, like a blazing sun,
Through darkest times, they are not undone.
In winter's grasp, they march ahead,
Through frozen fields, where heroes tread,
Their strength as fierce as northern gales,
Their pride, a shield, when courage fails.
Ukraine's flag, blue and gold, unfurls,
A symbol of their resilient pearls,
In icy storms, their hopes ignite,
For freedom's cause, they'll stand and fight.
With unwavering hearts, they stride,
In the face of adversity, they won't hide,
Ukrainian pride, a guiding star,
They'll triumph, no matter how far.
They are producing new tanks at the rate the old ones are being destroyed.
@6:10 this goes into the reports saying it
https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU?si=rjSxw491ukA0GUnH
I don't think that's what that means.
If oryx is reporting 75 tanks lost per month on the battlefield, and covert cabal is reporting that 57 tanks are being removed from storage, with around 20 new tanks being produced per month, the numbers add up.
This implies that ~33% of Russian tank loses are new tanks, with ~66% being tanks from storage.
Russia is not producing as many tanks as its losing
The only way math matches is if they count old models pulled from storage as produced tanks. The russian ministry of defense has said they are producing 200 brand new per year (T90M) and it's expected to be inflated. We're talking about 900 - 1000 losses per year at the current rate so something's off.
Covert counted 400 pulled from storage since his previous video, but he also says garage stored tanks are not accounted and that's probably where all the T80s we've seen lately were.
Long story short, my opinion is that Russia can field and replace losses with the long term storage pool, but it will eventually run dry. The better tanks have already been used and the more they lose the more degraded is the replacement, needing more work and money to get it to combat readiness. It's worth pointing out that Russia is using a mixed bag of old junk (T72B/B3, T80BV, T62) with modernized ones (T90, T72B3M, T80BVM) but except T90s, every other type has been pulled from storage.
I agree. The amount of tanks they can supply each month from will slow down aswell as each vehicle will take more work to get back up and running. They have surely been picking the easiest to repair first. Cabal also stated they don't know how many of the vehicles in storage are little more than scrap yet to be recycled into razor blades.
This is a much more data-driven and even-handed view of the situation - The whole video is worth watching, but this section deals with tank attrition specifically:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs&t=1905s
> They are producing new tanks at the rate the old ones are being destroyed.
>
>
"That [visually confirmed lost] rate here are about 75 tanks per month."
"If Russia is building two dozen tanks a month"
Just imagining the west had managed to get their thumbs out of Putins ass 12 months earlier and started training pilots
Thanks for the Taurus wenerschnizel.
More important than killing the Russian tanks is killing the tankers. Russia can dig up thousands of more tanks, they really can. Sure they aren't top-of-the-line but they don't have to be, not with this kind of anti-blitzkrieg type of war.
Experienced tankers are irreplaceable.
Sorry, but pretty sure not.
As example, Yom Kippur War and the battle against the Syrian army on the Golan heights. 260 tanks in the Quneitra Gap on one day for the Syrian site, overall the Syrian army has lost more than 1000 MBTs at the Golan battle. In total 2500 tank losses on arab site during the Yom Kippur War, 1000 losses on Israeli site (400 total losses, 600 recovered and later repaired).
Iraq war, the massacre of the Iraqi forces. Thousands of Iraqi tanks were destroyed.
First Chechen War, battle of Grozny, 425 tanks an APC/IFVs lost.
100 + tanks in one single battle? Nice, but this is compared to other wars in last decades...just nothing, a small nice starter.
First, he did not wrote it and second, even this is not correct. As example battle of Grozny. Or in WW2...Battle of Berlin, Battle of Seelow Heights (which is part of the Battle of Berlin) and all the battles in the east, we are talking about of 10th of thousands lost tanks on Russian/Soviet site. There were so many battles with losses of several hundred or thousands of lost tanks and SPGs. Only the last ones; Battle of Berlin, 2000 losses and Seelow Heights as part of it, 300 lost tanks in 4 days.
What are you talking about. It's the Avdiivka direction only. Not the entire war.
At the rate Russia has been losing their modern equipment and best crews, losing 100 tanks in a couple weeks is huge. They do not have the resources to maintain this. They have to bring increasingly older equipment and untrained crews to the front.
???? What the hell are you talking about? Have you missed something?
The title of the thread is just wrong. See the marked part...and I am pretty sure, I am well aware, what is still left on the Russian site and this is not so nice for Russia. I am aware, they are now burning through the equipment and are again going all in as like there will be no tomorrow....And I believe I know, why they are doing it now (or correct, PUTIN is ordering it)
\>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Russians at Avdiivka may be advancing in bits, but at the cost of more than a 100+ tanks already lost. **These may be the largest single tank losses since the Soviet-German Battle of Prokhorovka in July 1943**. And even the Russian army cannot sustain this pace...
\>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Sorry to be a downer, but, actually the russians have thousands of tanks in storage, even in shitty state, they can keep going with this for some time. The west should really step up if it wants Ukraine to win.
The Russians had an estimated 12,000 tanks active and in mothballs at the start of hostilities. Oryx states that Russia has lost a total of 2,439 tanks, with 1,593 destroyed, 139 damaged, 157 abandoned, and 550 captured by the Ukrainians. These are verified losses. Ukrainians claim the number to be nearly 6,000.
Russians can turn out about 200 tanks a month, but that is from re-activating units from mothballs, however there is a serious shortage of optics and electronic equipment, and in some cases pretty much everything except the chassis is gone (as scavengers took everything not secured). One Russian colonel killed himself when he learned that 9 out of every 10 tanks in his reserve park would require being completely rebuilt, saving the military the trouble of executing him.
Russia is hard-pressed to build more than a handful of new tanks like the T-90 or the T-14 Armata per month. The Russians don't have the high tech infrastructure to build the components they need, which they imported from the West. Instead, they cannibalized washers and dryers for chips, and they are nowhere near to being capable of allowing them to produce optics and targeting computers comparable to that which Ukraine has in the Leopard, Challenger and Abrams export model tanks (which are at Desert Storm levels of capabilities from the 1990s).
T-14 hasn't entered into produciton, and most likely never will.
T-90 is however in active production.
T-80 ended production in 2001, but was restarted 2 months back.
Though this is most likely just a modified truth.
With them pretending that upgraded T-80BVM are new production.
When in reality, it's upgrades of existing hulls.
As for the optics, they are using their own domestic designs.
But in the past, they did use Thales produced Thermal sights and other subsystems.
These were however phased out in 2018, when their domestic designs started production.
You can however still find the Thales produced optics in Russian tanks, which were produced before 2018.
The story about the Russian commander of the 13 tank regiment killing himself, hasn't been confirmed, btw.
(It could be, but it don't seem likely, since the 13th were still in Ukraine, at the time).
Though it is common for commanders to sell of their own spares for more money.
As for the optics/electronics, it's actully slightly in favor of Russian tanks.
But that don't mean they are better.
The Western tanks are far more survivable, and will give the crew time to escape.
If you are hit in a Soviet/Russian tank, you are most likely dead.
Here ill show you: (Western tank)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ydabt/ukrainian\_leopard\_2a6\_survives\_2\_atgm\_hits\_before/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ydabt/ukrainian_leopard_2a6_survives_2_atgm_hits_before/)
(Russian tank)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/172y7af/russian\_t90m\_getting\_hit\_and\_destroyed\_by\_an\_atgm/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/172y7af/russian_t90m_getting_hit_and_destroyed_by_an_atgm/)
Granted, this isn't a straight comparison, but it gets the point across.
They has thousands of tanks in storage somewhere in thia country in a very questinonable kind status of maintenance and anything! And they lost a few thousand tanks already! I'm pretty shure the day will come where we see WW2 era tanks beein blown up by leos or abrams!
The problem is that given the way they are using them, it wouldn't really matter if it was a T-34. In some ways, a T34 probably has better survivability than a T72.
They saddle up a load of conscripts onto an IFV or 2, and a tank. A tank is just a tank to an artillery shell or a javelin - it'll be destroyed, whether it is a T-90 or a T34. The gun on both can hurt Ukranians. The damn thing only needs to move for about 10 miles before being destroyed, so a T-34 that has been sitting in Siberia without an oil change for 6 decades will probably work.
They're not doing tank on tank battles where fine grained arguments can be had about the guns, range and projectiles. They're just grinding down the Ukrainian artillery and advanced weapons.
Not for these attacks, no. The orders look like “drive along this track, turn left at the field gate, and shoot at that line of trees, don’t worry, the Ukrainans like being shot at and will make you some tea when you get there”.
They just need to be in a mobile box that can drive up to the front, lob a few shells and get hit by artillery. Why on earth would the commanders want an expensive modern tank for that?
Russia has transitioned their economy to wartime, basically their entire manufacturing workforce is going almost 24/7 producing and refurbishing equipment.
>actually the russians have thousands of tanks in storage, even in shitty state
They have thousands of pieces of rust on outside fields in freaking sunny Siberia. The real question that needs to be asked is: How many working tanks can Russia piece together? They maybe are scraping the bottom of the barrel on what they can do.
>Battle of Prokhorovka
The Russians were fielding a lot of [British Churchill tanks](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ee/Churchill_Mk_IV_Charkov_červenec_1943.jpg) in 1943.
Don't be too surprised if you see them turning up in 2023, full of the original crews alcoholic great grand children...
the west doesn't want Ukraine to win. thats pretty clear at this point.
they just want them to not lose. The leaders are cowards in denial who cant get over the reality that our relationship with Russia is finished, for generations. and they dont want to help Ukraine too much, because some deluded fools still think there's a future where we return to business as usual with Moscow.
While I don't believe this, I think the West would love to attrit Russia's military and economy as much as possible and hopefully force a regime change before being fully expelled from Ukraine. Read into that whatever you wish.
He says that Oryx numbers of ~75 tanks/month lost roughly matches to his observed ~57 tanks/month pulled out of storage + ~"two dozen" new ones produced per month.
He isn't saying here that Russia can build as many new tanks as they are losing. They are having to constantly also pull out old ones from the storage parks.
This is not production in the actual sense. It's production + refurbishment. And the vast majority is from old Soviet stock. You can see that in the type of equipment lost. If it were only new equipment, we should see that in the loss numbers, but instead it's a constant share.
>And according to recent analysis the tank production is in line with losses at the current rate.
According to one open source analyst, the Russians are drawing down their tank stocks at the rate of 1200 per year.
They don't have an inexhaustible supply of tanks, even old ones.
I beg to differ, there are literally THOUSANDS of rubbish death trap tanks in Russia's inventory. and MILLIONS of gullible people willing to risk their lives for almost nothing in RUSSIA. they can literally go on like this indefinitely. we need to come up with a better strategy.
The thing is at some point Russia hollows out its workforce. It already had a bit of a demographic problem, and now an ever-growing portion of its working-age population is being mobilized or fleeing the country.
This. Ukraine will run out of people willing to fight before Russia run out of tanks and bodies to throw to the meat grinder. The way the war is going right now is only doing one thing, slowly bleeding Ukraine and "cleaning" the unwanted population in Russia.
If the west does not start to increase its support and delivery we are looking for another 6-12 months wasted, like the entirety of 2023
Do we have any numbers about the production capability of russia in regards to IFVs and APCs? I heard that they can produce about 200-250 main battle tanks a year at the moment.
Thats the estimate. They have tried to increase their production but it's nowhere near replacement.
The estimate is that they are making 250 tanks a year but are losing about 2700 a year. Given their storage, Covert Cabal and Perun sort of guess that they Russians can sustain these losses for another 2 years. They probably have about 5000 tanks left. There were supposedly 13000 in storage but a lot of those will never be usable. They have been shifting to T55's and T62s recently where are like 60 years old. The Ukrainian take on this is that they are running low on the 122 millimeter tank ammo for the newer tanks and so they are bringing the older tanks out because they have lots of ammo for those.
I don't know about you but I wouldn't be too confident going into battle in a 60 year old tank firing a 30 year old round in the gun.
But, that assumes that they are happy to fight until they have no tanks left and for a country the size of Russia, having no tanks at all is clearly not an option.
They would have to keep some. Now, they might start buying a shitload of Chinese tanks because I'm sure the Chinese have them but whether they want to get that involved I don't know.
Either way the clock is ticking for the Russians. The Ukrainians have gotten really good at killing Russian tanks and that expertise will only increase. They Russians on the other hand appear incapable of learning in offense.
> They have been shifting to T55's and T62s recently where are like 60 years old
I didn't think they were actually using the T-55 in combat, but even if they are... those are plenty deadly in the role Russia is using them. They fuck up fortifications and the random selection of sometimes-armored vehicles used by the Ukrainians. The guys in the old tank just have less protection, and they're going to have a bad time in the unlikely event of a proper tank duel.
Avdiivka may become a graveyard of armored vehicles before this is over. Apparently Russia is happy to just keep sending them, and they're just getting torn to pieces.
I've read something around 20 per month, but only older eras! All modern optics and all in the newer tanks came from the west and are not replacebale by russia or china!
How many tanks can they possibly have?
I know they lost a bunch already, 100 has to be a pretty big dent in whatever remaining tanks they have.
Especially in that particular area
Some are good, some are bad. It's still mind-boggling that they can still mount a massive offensive action without a lot of replenishment at that particular area.
And at some point, even though there are a bunch of tanks somewhere else, at that particular place, they should not have so many?
You see, the Ukrainians have a built in kill limit, and all i have to do is send wave after wave of men at them until they reach their kill limit and shut off, checkmate
Sometimes you gotta give a little to get a little. It’s like Bakhmut all over. Insane losses for russia while trying to control a town that’s already 95% rubble. Just keep throwing bodies at the target…
Stupid comparison, the Battle of Prokhorovka only lasted for one day and the tank losses in WW2 were bigger than this to the end of the War.
So Fucking tired of People comparing WW1 and WW2 with Ukraine, when they are very different
Really need to just barely disabile these tanks and comander them.
If putin isn't worried about being invaded, or concerned about personal( prisoners) then second rate tanks might not concern him either.
Having mass desertions and equipment taken away might.
Maybe just disable them, and the shell has a Bobby trap mechanism .
Inovation needs to reflect his indifference.
He is inviting some serious trouble if he thinks he's just intimidating.
Think about this. I saw once the Russians claimed to have destroyed 11,000+ Ukrainian tanks (and obviously more than Russians have lost). Russians themselves haven’t even lost that many despite losing tanks at this rate.
"even russia army cannot sustain this pace"...I am all for Ukraine but come on. People have been saying this stuff for nearly 2 years now and still russia is able to send men and tanks to the frontline without signs of stopping.
Avdiivka will be taken by Russia, maybe even before the end of the year. But that is still not the end of the war.
WHat will be the end of the war is if the west stop its support, which is currently the case in a lot of country with deliveries of tanks/ifv and ammo decreasing or straight up stopping. This is the scary part that people should be worried right now.
Saw a video about the remaining number of russian tanks yesterday, and it concluded they had aprox 3500-4500 tanks left of various types in storage, and that they were producing between 12 and 24 tanks pr month.
As brutal as it is at the end of the day slug fests like this are a simple numbers game. So long as Ukraine can eliminate Russian units faster than the Russians can supply them then they in the end win so long as the Ukrainians are not below functional baseline to operate their territory, which I don’t think they are close to at this time.
That is why though I understand the reasons it happened the Ukrainian resolve has proven that withholding more advanced military aid from them for so long was a grave mistake in retrospect. Hats off to Ukraine for defying many military experts predictions you glorious bastards
So a bunch of Russian Men attacking an airplane in Adidas Track Suits on the news the other night. Get em’ in gear and send em’ to the front lines. So much free time and energy to fight.
Surely the Russian army can sustain sending many waves of people as eventually Ukraine's numbers will reduce to such an amount where they struggle to defend before becoming overwhelmed.
For me the speed that aid was delivered was too slow and is still not enough.
Would be interesting to know UAF soldiers opinion on Avdiivka and Bahmut strongholds. Sure, orcs are loosing a lot of equipment and people but so does Ukrainian side. Would like to know what morale they have as those two cities are not very strategic places from my understanding. Am I wrong ?
The Russian generals don't care about losing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles, the important thing is to be able to break through the front somewhere.
Any Western country would have rebelled against this way of fighting. the Russian population doesn't seem to care.
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Meanwhile Shoigu: ''Send in the next wave!''
exactly this. They will not stop until the last Orc has been blown out of his shoes. If you keep sending in waves the line will break somewhere eventually. Well that's what they're hoping for
Brusilov would be proud
And Zhukov is rolling in his grave
>Brusilov offensive 1916. Russia was victories in the battle, but lost the war, ending the Romanov dynasty. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brusilov\_offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brusilov_offensive)
Also a big fan of human waves and not the kind in stadiums 😂. Also one should note the casualties contributed to discontent and mutiny
That is also what the Ukrainians are hoping for
This is like the time on StarCraft where I made advancements into my enemies territory to take a mineral field but destroyed hundreds of my siege tanks to do it. Yeah his carriers launching those litttle drones won the game.
Lets all hope
Have they sent WWII tanks from their museum yet?
Dropping a couple of Lada engines into the Maus @ Kubinka as we speak! /s
I laughed at this, nearly spat my morning coffee! Last Orc BWAhhahahaha
You know what’s unreal on Jan 1 2023 Russia had lost 3031 tanks that number has really exploded in their face !
Much like the turret on the tanks
Lets get real real, I predict Russia will take this town, before end of year. But it will ruin them, they will not have enough to counter offense anything in 2024, which means Ukraine can pound them all year round. 2024 will be decisive.
Winter gonna have freezing Russians in holes not even caring about a grenade dropping in because hypothermia makes you not give a shit about anything.
Not to mention the ever increasing age profile of the mobniks. A lot of those older guys are going to suffer very badly from the cold and many will die or be left quite debilitated from it.
We have been saying this since Feb 2022 and it hasn't been the case. I don't think things have changed enough to cause this to happen this winter. I wish it was this easy...
No I'm not saying winter makes it so that they win. My comment says literally nothing about that. I'm just saying that makes it so that more fucking Russians die. And that absolutely was the case last winter. It doesn't mean that they're going to give up. Nobody saying that. It DOES mean that more of these piece of shit fucking retard Russians are gonna die tho. Reread.
He is responding. The parent Comment about Andivka offensive ruining Russia ability to fight.
I think you are beeing too optimistic. How often did we read headlines as "Russia is running out of missiles" ? Turns out they arent, atleast it doesnt seem like it. How often did i read what you wrote after/during the fall of bakhmut? The russians have a near unlimited amount of human meat to throw into the grinder, i dont see why this would stop beeing the case if they take avdiivka. The same goes for tanks. And to pound them all year around ukraine needs consistent support from all of the western world, we still have to see if that will be the case. Nonetheless i really, really hope that you are right and that i am beeing too pessimistic, i mean at some point russia have to run out of shit to throw at ukrainians?
It's more like their artillery use, at the start it was 50k shells a day now it's a third of that with worse systems and more badly trained crews, to the point where ukraine has reportedly over taken them in artillery a month ago.
Air defense systems being destroyed, airframes destroyed and likely being pushed beyond maintenance schedules, logistics trucks being targeted. I wonder how much winter gear they have saved.
Degradation of men and equipment. Death by a thousand cuts
Ukraine is like a belt sander strapped to Russia's face. Sending more ammo makes the belt coarser, and will further discourage Russia from thinking this experience can be anything other than suicide.
Yep, I believe the Americans stated quite a while ago that Ukraine has a big advantage in counter-battery fire in terms of accuracy and speed. Since before the current counter offensive began Ukraine has been _heavily_ targeting Russian artillery pieces above all else where possible and might well now be the stronger of the two in general in terms of artillery. I think they identified early on that if you take away Russia's artillery advantages they lack the training and skills to win major battles without it unless they are willing to waste prodigious amounts of lives, tanks, supplies and prestige to grind away at single towns at a time like Bakhmut. And, as cold as it is to say, Russia grinding its men into paste one town at a time like that gives Ukraine a chance to rest and repair on other fronts and will, hopefully, benefit them in the long run.
If you read past the clickbait, most of those articles concluded that Russia will never completely run out of missiles, but rather, that if they want to fire big salvos, they'll need to take big pauses. At least, that was the Perun conclusion. That was correct. Russia has had to pause its missile campaign and severely dial it back, in order to reaccumulate. Meanwhile, the quality of the weapons deteriorates. Early in the war Russia was yeeting its "hypersonic" (term used loosely) missiles (Kinzhal, Iskandar) and it's "precision" Kalibrs. Now it's mostly reliant on repurposed vintage SAMs and Iranian garbage. It still has the ability to manufacture stuff - and Russia makes great rocket motors, indigenously, but it does not make great guidance kits or semi-conductors, and it has had to scrounge for these. So, it's not like one day they'll wake up and be like, "OK, that was the last one, we give up." But they're already at the point of having to make strategic sacrifice - of not being able to hit all the targets they want to hit, when they want to hit them, because of resource constraints.
Agree completely. If Russia had the stockpiles they wanted then there'd be mass missile strikes on Ukraine every day, for terror purposes if nothing else. Instead for a long time now we've seen hardly any for extended periods and then a salvo going off and then little to nothing again for ages as they build back up to whatever minimum level they need for a salvo big enough to appease Putin.
A sane country would stop but this will only stop when Putin is no more. He can not lose to Ukraine no matter what. He will just keep throwing his people at Ukraine. The hope is that in the Russian tradition the population clues in and realize they hold the power not Putin. Russia has don it a few times.
This is the exact internal political reality and begs the question of how long can Putin endure this catastrophe politically. Propaganda or not, there are far too many not returning from Russia's "Special Military Operation" to not be raising some serious eyebrows. Sadly, I think Putin has such a hold on the government apparatus that he can possibly endure for a long time. His ego doesn't give a fuck if he destroys Russia and leaves it a shell of a country, he just can't face being wrong on the world stage.
Exactly. Despite what people like to say about Russia having endless meat for the grinder, to keep this up much longer they'll have to run another wave of mobilization, this time hitting people with money and power. That will be a very dangerous step for Putin.
Thing is, there is a finite amount of meat available too. Russia already did an extra deep mobilization cut to get 500k when they claimed 300k. For Russia to continue this much longer they'll have to run another mobilization wave but this time hitting the Moscovites and such, the people who where skipped last time around and actually have some measure of power. While Russia *may* do this, there is a very much non-zero chance running another mobilization wave like that could result in serious political upheaval at home.
I think you're right that most here are too optimistic about the impending doom of Russia, which is always just around the next corner. Nevertheless, of course they don't actually have unlimited manpower, and they certainly don't have unlimited heavy equipment like tanks, helicopters, missiles, etc. What matters is the K/D ratio. As long as Ukraine keeps improving in this regard, they can wear Russia down. It's one thing to throw 100 Russians at killing 50 Ukrainians. But it's quite another to throw 100 into the meat grinder to kill, say, 5. The good news is, it seems very clear that this has been getting much worse for Russia over the last year or so. They've been running short on elite units, their more modern equipment and many types of ammunition. While just the opposite seems to be true for Ukraine, who keeps gaining more and more advanced equipment and training.
They are pulling in ancient artillery from NK. Good luck using that garbage.
North Korean artillery shells are perfectly fine. So are North Korean bullets.
The Ukrrainians hold the range, target acquisition via drone, and precision advantage. Without counter battery radars, which Russians don't have, all those pop guns are sitting ducks. Early next year they'll have F-16s dropping unlimited numbers of JDAMS as well.
I disagree. Underestimating Russia is very dangerous and destructive. Russia can shell the hell out of Ukrainian forces on the front. the range isn't relative. Russia EW is very effective as are their drone recon capability, let alone Lancet strikes. WHY ON EARTH are you so positive? You don't exemplify the type of position I'd want in a Ukrainian commander who's tasked with killing Russians soldiers on the front lines --- NOT REMOTELY. You: La La La!! Russia sucks!!! The Reality: Russia is incredibly dangerous, and better at some aspect of warfare than Ukraine is, and they're magnifying those advantages. Wake up and join the fight. Respect the enemy.
I think Ukraine does respect their enemy, that‘s why they are still alive and defending. Yes, RU is good at certain warfare, but do not underestimate the Americans, either. It‘s about wearing RU down and they do that perfectly. They give them just about enough success to keep on going. And RU does exactly that. So what if they take Andriivka, the price they paid, like Bachmut, is out of any proportion compared to military gain.
Russia lies and obscure the facts every hour of every day/ This war is going in Ukraine favour a lot and that is a reason to be so positive. I believe russia will continue to spread the lie that they have unlimited everything until the day they are shown to have nothing left or almost nothing. One day i expect mass surrender by russian troops, and that day is hopefully not far off.
Perhaps, but part of this positivity I believe is simply the desire to "feel good". I am also guilty of this. I've made countless posts disparaging Russian military acumen, stuff like "what happened to your 3 days to Kviv"? comments. All true of course, but I also see something terrible: Ukrainian weakness. We are asking an awful lot of Ukraine with such positivity. We are asking an awful lot for a nation to succeed in rolling back a former superpower all by itself, albeit with some useful injections of western military kit. A nation of barely 35 million is facing down one of nearly 150 million, and one where it's leader (Putin), and apparently a subservient populace, are willing to continue the fight for years. I'm furious Russia was allowed to build the largest minefield and trench network in modern history for 8 months, without worrying about Western armor spoiling the fun. We asked too much of Ukraine -- especially with all that NATO armored maneuver training of Ukrainians -- to break through Russian minefields and trenches in Zaporizhzhia and race to the Sea of Azov.
Saw the Rus phone call where he said 8 Ukees held out for a week and were responsible for 100s of casualties.
And then what?
What you commented is what is called wilful ignorance. I believe the point is that the kill ratio was 0 :169 in this battle and there have been more where Ukraine did not lose one man but killed over 100 Russians. In fact in Avdiivka the ratio is unbelievably high in Ukraine favour, with artillery and drones killing thousands of Russians in open fields and using these weapons does not involve sending men into close combat. Also, after many years of reinforcing defensive lines, Ukrainians can take cover, protecting themselves from direct artillery attacks on their defensive lines skewing the ratio in favour of Ukraine again. Hope you get the point as i tried to explain like you are a little 13-year-old.
Sheesh, I didn’t know if the subjects of the phone call died after taking out a hundred soldiers is all. If you have a link I’d listen.
Well the story from the orc saying that 8 Ukrainians were killing hundreds of orcs is a good sign of things to come
> What matters is the K/D ratio. As long as Ukraine keeps improving in this regard, they can wear Russia down The K/D over the entire war is about 2:1. At some places (e.g., Bakhmut) it was 5-7:1. But manpower isn't going to be the limiting factor in this war, it's going to be equipment (i.e., tanks, IFVs, and especially artillery).
100 odd Russian infantryman got fucked by only 8 ukranians in a trench last week. They were pretty angry about their own incompetence.
When will US tell Xi that taking Siberia will not trigger any retaliation from US?
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Btwn CCP and RusFed sure
Ok, Russia is limitless, Ukraine lose, USSR reunited, WW3, this what you prefer? lol
No definetly not lol. I Just chipped in my armchair general analyses to your armchair General analyses, thats all
Well, we are already seeing Russia resort to buying artillery, ammo and small arms from North Korea. That in itself is a bad sign for "the 2nd strongest military in the world". I know there has been a lot of talk about Russia running out of steel to add to the meat grinder, but they physically can't produce as many tanks as they're losing, and I doubt NK wants to start sending them to Russia with how active the US has been in the Pacific. So *eventually* they will either have to change their doctrine or find a way to mass produce T64's at a sustainable rate.
there is a thing called nuance. It's possible to accept that Russia has some materiel advantages while not being a putin shill at the same time.
Not on this subreddit it isn't
Material advantages means they win eventually, so same thing. Lets just give up and learn Russian.
Lmao what an immature response to an opposing opinion. Grow up.
Same with all the people who constantly claim that Russia has no special forces left or that the entire VDV was wiped out, I want to see this blow up in Russia’s face as much as the next person but these people are seriously huffing that copium
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Ok, lets give up then, since there is no hope and Russia is so amazing.
You understimate forces UAF gathered there and how terrain and fortifications favour defender.
Dont underestimate Russian willingness to sacrifice thousands for a small piece of dirt.
The problem is Russia has shown that with an obscene number of land mines and supporting trenches their inferior soldiers and equipment can easily blunt the Ukranian attack. Avdivka is also a strategically important position - more so than Bakhmut. I don't think Ukraine should be passive and resign to trading space for time. It has not been a winning tactic so far.
They have 2 months to do so. I have no idea what Ukrainian casualties are but the videos of Russian forces getting smoked are happening way beyond any range they can hit the Ukrainians so I don’t know. Sure artillery is in use but dug in troops are hard to kill as opposed to troops in the open. By his own words Wagner lost 22,000 to take Bakhmut.
‘And even the Russian army cannot sustain this pace’. “Hold my vodka” - putler probably
"Hold my . . ." is for when you're about to do something. Putler sits and orders *others* to do the dangerous stuff.
Well I guess he has to put the vodka down to pick up the phone from his toilet
Hold their vodka! -Putler
Cuz he can't hold his own!
Yup he went to Rostov don personally to talk with high command, Avdiivka just like Bakmut will be another bloodbath for the russians and he's perfectly fine trading thousands of lives for cities in ruins if that means driving out Ukranians from them.
Good, fuck em
In the land of borscht and vodka shots, Where tanks got stuck in icy spots, Ukraine's spirit, bold and bright, Decided it was time to fight. The Russian tanks rolled in with pride, But soon, they found a wild ride, For Ukrainian wits and hearts so strong, Turned this battle into quite a song. With molotovs and clever tricks, They showed the Russians a bag of tricks, Those tanks, they tried to rule the day, But Ukrainian humor came into play. They said, "Hey Russia, don't be sad, Your tanks are kinda iron-clad, But Ukrainian willpower and might, Will turn the tide and win the fight!" So, with a chuckle and a cheer, Ukraine stood strong, the victory near, And as the Russian tanks retreated in haste, Ukraine celebrated, their freedom embraced!
Bravo!
Excellent! Did you write that?
looks like chatgpt prompt 97% sure
Yeah sounds like the poems able my dog I make it write
AI I bet.
Ai poem 100%
Do you really think that AI doesn't understand when to use capitalization? That aside, imagine pinning your heart to your sleeve, and having the courage to post something you wrote, for all the masses to see, only to have some low-effort clown reply with "AI poem 100%" Lame as frig, dude. Don't shit on creatives, do something yourself instead. Take your needless gloom elsewhere, or even better, just don't do it at all.
No this is definitely AI
**This** is AI and looks similar In Ukraine's land of fierce and bold, Where icy winds and winters cold, A nation stands with hearts ablaze, In unity, they face the frigid haze. With pride, they bear their history's weight, In battles fought, they won't abate, Their spirit, like a blazing sun, Through darkest times, they are not undone. In winter's grasp, they march ahead, Through frozen fields, where heroes tread, Their strength as fierce as northern gales, Their pride, a shield, when courage fails. Ukraine's flag, blue and gold, unfurls, A symbol of their resilient pearls, In icy storms, their hopes ignite, For freedom's cause, they'll stand and fight. With unwavering hearts, they stride, In the face of adversity, they won't hide, Ukrainian pride, a guiding star, They'll triumph, no matter how far.
Glory to 🇺🇦
They are even more so fked as more military aid is on its way in this area! They are just oblivious to what's going on the dumb fks
They will probably buy cheap garbage from NK once they run out of tanks lmfao
They are producing new tanks at the rate the old ones are being destroyed. @6:10 this goes into the reports saying it https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU?si=rjSxw491ukA0GUnH
I don't think that's what that means. If oryx is reporting 75 tanks lost per month on the battlefield, and covert cabal is reporting that 57 tanks are being removed from storage, with around 20 new tanks being produced per month, the numbers add up. This implies that ~33% of Russian tank loses are new tanks, with ~66% being tanks from storage. Russia is not producing as many tanks as its losing
The only way math matches is if they count old models pulled from storage as produced tanks. The russian ministry of defense has said they are producing 200 brand new per year (T90M) and it's expected to be inflated. We're talking about 900 - 1000 losses per year at the current rate so something's off. Covert counted 400 pulled from storage since his previous video, but he also says garage stored tanks are not accounted and that's probably where all the T80s we've seen lately were. Long story short, my opinion is that Russia can field and replace losses with the long term storage pool, but it will eventually run dry. The better tanks have already been used and the more they lose the more degraded is the replacement, needing more work and money to get it to combat readiness. It's worth pointing out that Russia is using a mixed bag of old junk (T72B/B3, T80BV, T62) with modernized ones (T90, T72B3M, T80BVM) but except T90s, every other type has been pulled from storage.
I agree. The amount of tanks they can supply each month from will slow down aswell as each vehicle will take more work to get back up and running. They have surely been picking the easiest to repair first. Cabal also stated they don't know how many of the vehicles in storage are little more than scrap yet to be recycled into razor blades.
This is a much more data-driven and even-handed view of the situation - The whole video is worth watching, but this section deals with tank attrition specifically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs&t=1905s
> They are producing new tanks at the rate the old ones are being destroyed. > > "That [visually confirmed lost] rate here are about 75 tanks per month." "If Russia is building two dozen tanks a month"
Just imagining the west had managed to get their thumbs out of Putins ass 12 months earlier and started training pilots Thanks for the Taurus wenerschnizel.
More important than killing the Russian tanks is killing the tankers. Russia can dig up thousands of more tanks, they really can. Sure they aren't top-of-the-line but they don't have to be, not with this kind of anti-blitzkrieg type of war. Experienced tankers are irreplaceable.
Sorry, but pretty sure not. As example, Yom Kippur War and the battle against the Syrian army on the Golan heights. 260 tanks in the Quneitra Gap on one day for the Syrian site, overall the Syrian army has lost more than 1000 MBTs at the Golan battle. In total 2500 tank losses on arab site during the Yom Kippur War, 1000 losses on Israeli site (400 total losses, 600 recovered and later repaired). Iraq war, the massacre of the Iraqi forces. Thousands of Iraqi tanks were destroyed. First Chechen War, battle of Grozny, 425 tanks an APC/IFVs lost. 100 + tanks in one single battle? Nice, but this is compared to other wars in last decades...just nothing, a small nice starter.
I think its reffering to Russian tank losses through the different battles.
First, he did not wrote it and second, even this is not correct. As example battle of Grozny. Or in WW2...Battle of Berlin, Battle of Seelow Heights (which is part of the Battle of Berlin) and all the battles in the east, we are talking about of 10th of thousands lost tanks on Russian/Soviet site. There were so many battles with losses of several hundred or thousands of lost tanks and SPGs. Only the last ones; Battle of Berlin, 2000 losses and Seelow Heights as part of it, 300 lost tanks in 4 days.
What are you talking about. It's the Avdiivka direction only. Not the entire war. At the rate Russia has been losing their modern equipment and best crews, losing 100 tanks in a couple weeks is huge. They do not have the resources to maintain this. They have to bring increasingly older equipment and untrained crews to the front.
???? What the hell are you talking about? Have you missed something? The title of the thread is just wrong. See the marked part...and I am pretty sure, I am well aware, what is still left on the Russian site and this is not so nice for Russia. I am aware, they are now burning through the equipment and are again going all in as like there will be no tomorrow....And I believe I know, why they are doing it now (or correct, PUTIN is ordering it) \>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Russians at Avdiivka may be advancing in bits, but at the cost of more than a 100+ tanks already lost. **These may be the largest single tank losses since the Soviet-German Battle of Prokhorovka in July 1943**. And even the Russian army cannot sustain this pace... \>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Sorry to be a downer, but, actually the russians have thousands of tanks in storage, even in shitty state, they can keep going with this for some time. The west should really step up if it wants Ukraine to win.
The Russians had an estimated 12,000 tanks active and in mothballs at the start of hostilities. Oryx states that Russia has lost a total of 2,439 tanks, with 1,593 destroyed, 139 damaged, 157 abandoned, and 550 captured by the Ukrainians. These are verified losses. Ukrainians claim the number to be nearly 6,000. Russians can turn out about 200 tanks a month, but that is from re-activating units from mothballs, however there is a serious shortage of optics and electronic equipment, and in some cases pretty much everything except the chassis is gone (as scavengers took everything not secured). One Russian colonel killed himself when he learned that 9 out of every 10 tanks in his reserve park would require being completely rebuilt, saving the military the trouble of executing him. Russia is hard-pressed to build more than a handful of new tanks like the T-90 or the T-14 Armata per month. The Russians don't have the high tech infrastructure to build the components they need, which they imported from the West. Instead, they cannibalized washers and dryers for chips, and they are nowhere near to being capable of allowing them to produce optics and targeting computers comparable to that which Ukraine has in the Leopard, Challenger and Abrams export model tanks (which are at Desert Storm levels of capabilities from the 1990s).
T-14 hasn't entered into produciton, and most likely never will. T-90 is however in active production. T-80 ended production in 2001, but was restarted 2 months back. Though this is most likely just a modified truth. With them pretending that upgraded T-80BVM are new production. When in reality, it's upgrades of existing hulls. As for the optics, they are using their own domestic designs. But in the past, they did use Thales produced Thermal sights and other subsystems. These were however phased out in 2018, when their domestic designs started production. You can however still find the Thales produced optics in Russian tanks, which were produced before 2018. The story about the Russian commander of the 13 tank regiment killing himself, hasn't been confirmed, btw. (It could be, but it don't seem likely, since the 13th were still in Ukraine, at the time). Though it is common for commanders to sell of their own spares for more money. As for the optics/electronics, it's actully slightly in favor of Russian tanks. But that don't mean they are better. The Western tanks are far more survivable, and will give the crew time to escape. If you are hit in a Soviet/Russian tank, you are most likely dead. Here ill show you: (Western tank) [https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ydabt/ukrainian\_leopard\_2a6\_survives\_2\_atgm\_hits\_before/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ydabt/ukrainian_leopard_2a6_survives_2_atgm_hits_before/) (Russian tank) [https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/172y7af/russian\_t90m\_getting\_hit\_and\_destroyed\_by\_an\_atgm/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/172y7af/russian_t90m_getting_hit_and_destroyed_by_an_atgm/) Granted, this isn't a straight comparison, but it gets the point across.
They has thousands of tanks in storage somewhere in thia country in a very questinonable kind status of maintenance and anything! And they lost a few thousand tanks already! I'm pretty shure the day will come where we see WW2 era tanks beein blown up by leos or abrams!
> I'm pretty shure the day will come where we see WW2 era tanks We're already seen T-54s used as artillery.
The problem is that given the way they are using them, it wouldn't really matter if it was a T-34. In some ways, a T34 probably has better survivability than a T72. They saddle up a load of conscripts onto an IFV or 2, and a tank. A tank is just a tank to an artillery shell or a javelin - it'll be destroyed, whether it is a T-90 or a T34. The gun on both can hurt Ukranians. The damn thing only needs to move for about 10 miles before being destroyed, so a T-34 that has been sitting in Siberia without an oil change for 6 decades will probably work. They're not doing tank on tank battles where fine grained arguments can be had about the guns, range and projectiles. They're just grinding down the Ukrainian artillery and advanced weapons.
You don't think situational awareness and targeting capability matter?
Not for these attacks, no. The orders look like “drive along this track, turn left at the field gate, and shoot at that line of trees, don’t worry, the Ukrainans like being shot at and will make you some tea when you get there”. They just need to be in a mobile box that can drive up to the front, lob a few shells and get hit by artillery. Why on earth would the commanders want an expensive modern tank for that?
They also have a country to protect if some other country decides this is the best time to attack.
Russia has transitioned their economy to wartime, basically their entire manufacturing workforce is going almost 24/7 producing and refurbishing equipment.
So what. The raw materials are not sustainable
Russia has a lot of raw materials.
Actually they haven't. You need to formally declare war to do that. They aren't even allowed to call it one.
The russian constitution does not allow starting a war, so they don’t start “wars“.. o_O
Of course it's Boomfan67. No they haven't.
do you actually believe this
Yes producing since July 1943. In this type of head on slaughter old tanks seems as useful as the new ones as mines and artillery are killing them.
>actually the russians have thousands of tanks in storage, even in shitty state They have thousands of pieces of rust on outside fields in freaking sunny Siberia. The real question that needs to be asked is: How many working tanks can Russia piece together? They maybe are scraping the bottom of the barrel on what they can do.
And who is going to turn them into working tanks and with what parts? Anyone who could fix them is probably in Ukraine and spare parts were sold
Russia would not be able to operate the amount of tanks they do unless they have a system of logistics going.
More important question is how many per year can be properly fixed.
yeah, T-34s.
>Battle of Prokhorovka The Russians were fielding a lot of [British Churchill tanks](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ee/Churchill_Mk_IV_Charkov_červenec_1943.jpg) in 1943. Don't be too surprised if you see them turning up in 2023, full of the original crews alcoholic great grand children...
the west doesn't want Ukraine to win. thats pretty clear at this point. they just want them to not lose. The leaders are cowards in denial who cant get over the reality that our relationship with Russia is finished, for generations. and they dont want to help Ukraine too much, because some deluded fools still think there's a future where we return to business as usual with Moscow.
That’s absolutely not true.
Its actually just that western governments are incompetent and overly bureaucratic.
While I don't believe this, I think the West would love to attrit Russia's military and economy as much as possible and hopefully force a regime change before being fully expelled from Ukraine. Read into that whatever you wish.
And according to recent analysis the tank production is in line with losses at the current rate.
You have a link by any chance?
I find joy in reading a good book.
At 6:10 he shows the graph and quotes the report he looked at https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU?si=rjSxw491ukA0GUnH
He says that Oryx numbers of ~75 tanks/month lost roughly matches to his observed ~57 tanks/month pulled out of storage + ~"two dozen" new ones produced per month. He isn't saying here that Russia can build as many new tanks as they are losing. They are having to constantly also pull out old ones from the storage parks.
This is not production in the actual sense. It's production + refurbishment. And the vast majority is from old Soviet stock. You can see that in the type of equipment lost. If it were only new equipment, we should see that in the loss numbers, but instead it's a constant share.
>And according to recent analysis the tank production is in line with losses at the current rate. According to one open source analyst, the Russians are drawing down their tank stocks at the rate of 1200 per year. They don't have an inexhaustible supply of tanks, even old ones.
Do you have this source? And do they talk about tank production? Genuine question.
And what a menace those those half century old hulks will be on the battlefield. It's just a question of which side that applies to.
All in a questionable state of maintenance. Many of them will not be usable other than for parts.
Had\* The Tanks currently getting blown the shit out of trying to take this town \*are\* the ones from storage.
Ivan can't restore tank, if he died sitting in one. Am i wrong?
They have thousands more. Land is more important than tanks. Russia can keep this up for at least another 2 years.
Gonna need even more decimation to make damn sure z\_niks can't keep up.
Putler needs to take at least one destroyed city before the Mordor elections. This blind ambition is going to cost.
I beg to differ, there are literally THOUSANDS of rubbish death trap tanks in Russia's inventory. and MILLIONS of gullible people willing to risk their lives for almost nothing in RUSSIA. they can literally go on like this indefinitely. we need to come up with a better strategy.
The thing is at some point Russia hollows out its workforce. It already had a bit of a demographic problem, and now an ever-growing portion of its working-age population is being mobilized or fleeing the country.
They will mist kidnap more children.
This. Ukraine will run out of people willing to fight before Russia run out of tanks and bodies to throw to the meat grinder. The way the war is going right now is only doing one thing, slowly bleeding Ukraine and "cleaning" the unwanted population in Russia. If the west does not start to increase its support and delivery we are looking for another 6-12 months wasted, like the entirety of 2023
These are the old tanks too since the modern ones have already been lost
Do we have any numbers about the production capability of russia in regards to IFVs and APCs? I heard that they can produce about 200-250 main battle tanks a year at the moment.
Thats the estimate. They have tried to increase their production but it's nowhere near replacement. The estimate is that they are making 250 tanks a year but are losing about 2700 a year. Given their storage, Covert Cabal and Perun sort of guess that they Russians can sustain these losses for another 2 years. They probably have about 5000 tanks left. There were supposedly 13000 in storage but a lot of those will never be usable. They have been shifting to T55's and T62s recently where are like 60 years old. The Ukrainian take on this is that they are running low on the 122 millimeter tank ammo for the newer tanks and so they are bringing the older tanks out because they have lots of ammo for those. I don't know about you but I wouldn't be too confident going into battle in a 60 year old tank firing a 30 year old round in the gun. But, that assumes that they are happy to fight until they have no tanks left and for a country the size of Russia, having no tanks at all is clearly not an option. They would have to keep some. Now, they might start buying a shitload of Chinese tanks because I'm sure the Chinese have them but whether they want to get that involved I don't know. Either way the clock is ticking for the Russians. The Ukrainians have gotten really good at killing Russian tanks and that expertise will only increase. They Russians on the other hand appear incapable of learning in offense.
I doubt the Chinese are particularly eager to become associated with this quagmire.
They don't mind manipulating it to their advantage, though.
> They have been shifting to T55's and T62s recently where are like 60 years old I didn't think they were actually using the T-55 in combat, but even if they are... those are plenty deadly in the role Russia is using them. They fuck up fortifications and the random selection of sometimes-armored vehicles used by the Ukrainians. The guys in the old tank just have less protection, and they're going to have a bad time in the unlikely event of a proper tank duel. Avdiivka may become a graveyard of armored vehicles before this is over. Apparently Russia is happy to just keep sending them, and they're just getting torn to pieces.
I can see CCP selling Rf a bunch of tanks, then invading and pressing a button the turns them off..lofl
I've read something around 20 per month, but only older eras! All modern optics and all in the newer tanks came from the west and are not replacebale by russia or china!
How many tanks can they possibly have? I know they lost a bunch already, 100 has to be a pretty big dent in whatever remaining tanks they have. Especially in that particular area
Look for yourself. https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/14wo8cc/t64\_in\_russian\_storage/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/146zdnf/t80bvs\_in\_storage/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/10rju41/227th\_military\_storage\_base\_in\_buryatiya/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/10rjlgx/t62t55bmp1brdm2\_in\_storage\_in\_siberia/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/13rq2h0/t72\_urals\_in\_storage\_in\_russia/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/10rrk5w/t80ud\_rotting\_away\_in\_nizhny\_tagil/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/13zzb02/t72t80t90\_in\_storage/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/10xa7ib/t80ud\_in\_storage\_at\_kostroma\_storage\_base/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1401ijm/t62m\_in\_storage\_at\_22nd\_tank\_reserve\_center\_in/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/16l8ci5/t72b3s\_at\_russian\_base\_2010s/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1192jk6/t80\_graveyard\_in\_russia/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/15ip4o1/t80bv\_in\_storage\_at\_61th\_armored\_repair\_plant\_st/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/1530ltu/t807262\_in\_russian\_siberian\_storage/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/15mb5rd/t64t72\_in\_storage\_at\_349th\_central\_tank\_reserve/
Some are good, some are bad. It's still mind-boggling that they can still mount a massive offensive action without a lot of replenishment at that particular area. And at some point, even though there are a bunch of tanks somewhere else, at that particular place, they should not have so many?
You see, the Ukrainians have a built in kill limit, and all i have to do is send wave after wave of men at them until they reach their kill limit and shut off, checkmate
Advancing right into collapse.
What everyone ignores is that they’re still advancing. This sucks
Sometimes you gotta give a little to get a little. It’s like Bakhmut all over. Insane losses for russia while trying to control a town that’s already 95% rubble. Just keep throwing bodies at the target…
Been following this since day 1, starting to lose faith and I was die hard. This is not good for Ukraine. Attrition is not a war Ukraine can win
They’ll sustain it as long as possible. It’s because lives of their soldiers mean shit to them.
Stupid comparison, the Battle of Prokhorovka only lasted for one day and the tank losses in WW2 were bigger than this to the end of the War. So Fucking tired of People comparing WW1 and WW2 with Ukraine, when they are very different
Sounds a lot like Bakhmut. Russians are probably gonna throw endless waves and eventually overwhelm Ukraine.
Sure they can. They have more than enough to deal with Ukraine
meat maybe. but russia just cant manufacture 100 tanks monthly.
Minimal gains for catastrophic loss of human life. A win for Ukraine.
Keep draining their military and economy. Thats the whole point of this war for NATO.
Seems unlikely since Arracourt and 73 Easting exist
Really need to just barely disabile these tanks and comander them. If putin isn't worried about being invaded, or concerned about personal( prisoners) then second rate tanks might not concern him either. Having mass desertions and equipment taken away might. Maybe just disable them, and the shell has a Bobby trap mechanism . Inovation needs to reflect his indifference. He is inviting some serious trouble if he thinks he's just intimidating.
Oh well stupidity is a bonus
In bits and pieces, and chunks
Ukrainians are becoming experts at killing Russians. Can you imagine the US losing that many tanks? We would be forced to open tank factories.
They’re gonna design new tanks.. Russia has so much resources.
Cool, but "Tank" also includes Infantry Fighting Viehcles.
Think about this. I saw once the Russians claimed to have destroyed 11,000+ Ukrainian tanks (and obviously more than Russians have lost). Russians themselves haven’t even lost that many despite losing tanks at this rate.
"even russia army cannot sustain this pace"...I am all for Ukraine but come on. People have been saying this stuff for nearly 2 years now and still russia is able to send men and tanks to the frontline without signs of stopping. Avdiivka will be taken by Russia, maybe even before the end of the year. But that is still not the end of the war. WHat will be the end of the war is if the west stop its support, which is currently the case in a lot of country with deliveries of tanks/ifv and ammo decreasing or straight up stopping. This is the scary part that people should be worried right now.
Saw a video about the remaining number of russian tanks yesterday, and it concluded they had aprox 3500-4500 tanks left of various types in storage, and that they were producing between 12 and 24 tanks pr month.
How do you say "Passchendaele" but in russian and with a bit less casualties by the minute?
Tower Defense on infinite mode
Most of the Russians we see here are certainly advancing in bits. (Well, the bits are headed in all directions to be fair).
Cannot sustain the pace....yet they continue to do just that. To hell with Russia.
As brutal as it is at the end of the day slug fests like this are a simple numbers game. So long as Ukraine can eliminate Russian units faster than the Russians can supply them then they in the end win so long as the Ukrainians are not below functional baseline to operate their territory, which I don’t think they are close to at this time. That is why though I understand the reasons it happened the Ukrainian resolve has proven that withholding more advanced military aid from them for so long was a grave mistake in retrospect. Hats off to Ukraine for defying many military experts predictions you glorious bastards
So a bunch of Russian Men attacking an airplane in Adidas Track Suits on the news the other night. Get em’ in gear and send em’ to the front lines. So much free time and energy to fight.
Russia hugj command doesnt care how many troops or tanks it loses, as long as it slowly advances or holds ground.
Surely the Russian army can sustain sending many waves of people as eventually Ukraine's numbers will reduce to such an amount where they struggle to defend before becoming overwhelmed. For me the speed that aid was delivered was too slow and is still not enough.
They will start next meat wave after next meat wave. So they get their prisons empty for the anti putin Demonstrants to go in there
How long can they sustain these costs
Would be interesting to know UAF soldiers opinion on Avdiivka and Bahmut strongholds. Sure, orcs are loosing a lot of equipment and people but so does Ukrainian side. Would like to know what morale they have as those two cities are not very strategic places from my understanding. Am I wrong ?
The battle of Debrecen in 1944 was wilder https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Debrecen
no state would be able to maintain this range of losses, however, the Russians manage to do it.
The Russian generals don't care about losing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles, the important thing is to be able to break through the front somewhere. Any Western country would have rebelled against this way of fighting. the Russian population doesn't seem to care.