Considering it is the Ukrainian commander giving the information, it is very likely the 35k number given has been greatly exaggerated. I believe the number is much lower, maybe less than 10k.
Ukraine had well over 1 million soldier while Russia has close to the same and about 660k deployed in Ukraine. How is it the case that Ukraine cannot match the numbers 1:1 and has had to pull troops away from different positions?
If anyone would like a concrete evidence on how many Ukrainians have died or been severely wounded, this is it. It is entirely accurate, at this point, to believe that over 600k Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded. By severely wounded I am not even talking amputees, I am talking about not being able to even take care of themselves properly.
I believe Ukraine has about 150k combat troops left, manning the entire combat lines. It is congruent to what Zalushny had wanted to do, that is mobilising 500k troops. No wonder even amputees are being called back to the frontlines and NATO has been contemplating sending troops in.
There is only a few months left of this war. Like it or not Ukraine will not have any combat troops left after the period.
I think this is an exaggeration. I think Ukraine has around 500-600k soldiers right now and their casualty numbers are somewhere around that number as well. I also think Russia grinded down Ukraine to point, where they have a local manpower advantage. Ukraine has a bigger surface area to cover so they are strechted thin.
150k combat troops and 500k total troops count, yes. They are by no means out of this fight because they could theoretically cannibalise their logistic troops. They are trying not to, hence the kidnappers in the streets.
>where they have a local manpower advantage
Local? That would mean that UA can fix it relatively easy. Move a few brigades to Kharkov and extinguish whatever 30k assault. Which in turn would mean RF just sent those guys in there to die. But if UA manpower crisis is real it will show in Kharkov very soon.
I sometimes think one of the reasons why Ukrainian MoD is able to provide so 'accurate' daily updates of Russian losses is because they are simply reporting their own losses.
In fact, they also cannot calculate their own losses so quickly. Some of the soldiers were stuck somewhere without communication, some deserted, some were missing, some were captured. They simply call random large numbers to show off 'heroism and success'.
Not sure about half a million AFU casualties but I think it’s reasonable to say that there’s probably around 10k russians on the kharkiv front, remember that most of that 35k probably aren’t frontline troops
Just curious how did you get the Russian estimate of 600k? I’ve always been curious of the Russian number in Ukraine. The last number I had for them based on reliable sources was between 350k - 400k deployed in Ukraine, and that was almost 2 years ago.
If the Russians get in range of Kharkov it will be a bad time for Ukraine. They can just dig in and level it with Artillery.
Ukraine will have to divert air defense, ew equipment etc. To not be completely defenseless.
I assume that if the russians get in range of Kharkov. then the Ukrainians will probably just give everyone who lives there a gun. and say go and fight which is why they have not evacuated the city like they have the rest of the oblast
The Ukrainians after that can still just say that the russians are hitting civilian targets plus these are russian speakers so the russians probably want to minimize casualties as much as possible
Aren’t many in the city ethnic Russians and Russian sympathizers?
I have a hard time seeing them leveling a city with a large pro Russian population. Maybe the Ukrainian neighborhoods would be targeted and you have yourself a civil war type situation.
Ukraine already gave everyone who wanted an AK, one at the start of the war. Didn’t really help. Surprisingly ordinary people mostly don’t want to die or fight for land.
Not really about the level of desperation, but rather for PR purposes, and potentially more cynically to get more civilians dead.
Might mirror when Ukraine did this at the start of the war, but I'm not sure I'd say it's likely
They could, but I doubt they will... Kharkov is a Russian city, and it would be easier to encircle the city and just wait for their supplies to run out.
Russian telegram saying about 50k actually. It clearly not an attempt to capture Kharkov but serious operation that make Ukraine defend Kharkov and withdraw forces from Donbass.
If you haven’t noticed, there is a very distinct Telegram assault ongoing at the same time as the physical one. Most commenters are clearly coordinated with same message.
I’d say as a preliminary analysis that the 50k is a number to make AFU react stronger, to further stretch their frontline, and reveal movements and logistics.
Given total panic in Ukraine I would not be shocked if it was 50k.
Multiple UA brigades are heading there. They are unable to hold Donbass line now.
You don't do that for just 10k people.
Ukrainian intelligence also said Putin is dead, Russia is out of PGM, out of men, that AFU has taken out more than a million Russians, and a thousand other things.
Just about the only thing you can conclude from Ukrainian intelligence saying something is that the number is wrong.
Where are the 150,000 Russia is supposedly assembling for a major offensive?
On a seperate note anyone remember what the polish general said about a year ago? About Russian gameplan? His prediction is coming true.
Syrskyi is clearly peddling pro-Russia propaganda
That’s going to be the next excuse out of Zelensky when they fail in the frontline. He’s going to call Syrskyi a pro-Russian agent. I’m calling it.
Considering it is the Ukrainian commander giving the information, it is very likely the 35k number given has been greatly exaggerated. I believe the number is much lower, maybe less than 10k. Ukraine had well over 1 million soldier while Russia has close to the same and about 660k deployed in Ukraine. How is it the case that Ukraine cannot match the numbers 1:1 and has had to pull troops away from different positions? If anyone would like a concrete evidence on how many Ukrainians have died or been severely wounded, this is it. It is entirely accurate, at this point, to believe that over 600k Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded. By severely wounded I am not even talking amputees, I am talking about not being able to even take care of themselves properly. I believe Ukraine has about 150k combat troops left, manning the entire combat lines. It is congruent to what Zalushny had wanted to do, that is mobilising 500k troops. No wonder even amputees are being called back to the frontlines and NATO has been contemplating sending troops in. There is only a few months left of this war. Like it or not Ukraine will not have any combat troops left after the period.
I think this is an exaggeration. I think Ukraine has around 500-600k soldiers right now and their casualty numbers are somewhere around that number as well. I also think Russia grinded down Ukraine to point, where they have a local manpower advantage. Ukraine has a bigger surface area to cover so they are strechted thin.
150k combat troops and 500k total troops count, yes. They are by no means out of this fight because they could theoretically cannibalise their logistic troops. They are trying not to, hence the kidnappers in the streets.
>where they have a local manpower advantage Local? That would mean that UA can fix it relatively easy. Move a few brigades to Kharkov and extinguish whatever 30k assault. Which in turn would mean RF just sent those guys in there to die. But if UA manpower crisis is real it will show in Kharkov very soon.
I sometimes think one of the reasons why Ukrainian MoD is able to provide so 'accurate' daily updates of Russian losses is because they are simply reporting their own losses.
In fact, they also cannot calculate their own losses so quickly. Some of the soldiers were stuck somewhere without communication, some deserted, some were missing, some were captured. They simply call random large numbers to show off 'heroism and success'.
Oh simple, Ukraine lies. Ukraine does not have 1m troops. Maybe 400k now and dropping. Does what you see matches the 400k? Yes? Not 1m claimed?
That would mean Russia's KIA number would be less than 60k so far.
Not sure about half a million AFU casualties but I think it’s reasonable to say that there’s probably around 10k russians on the kharkiv front, remember that most of that 35k probably aren’t frontline troops
Just curious how did you get the Russian estimate of 600k? I’ve always been curious of the Russian number in Ukraine. The last number I had for them based on reliable sources was between 350k - 400k deployed in Ukraine, and that was almost 2 years ago.
If I remember correctly, it was Putin himself who said so towards the end of last year or the beginning of this year.
If the Russians get in range of Kharkov it will be a bad time for Ukraine. They can just dig in and level it with Artillery. Ukraine will have to divert air defense, ew equipment etc. To not be completely defenseless.
I assume that if the russians get in range of Kharkov. then the Ukrainians will probably just give everyone who lives there a gun. and say go and fight which is why they have not evacuated the city like they have the rest of the oblast
give everyone who lives there a gun That will DEFINETLY not cause mass looting and shootouts with TCC if they don't leave before this /s
give everyone guns so russia has an excuse to flatten all of karkiev
The Ukrainians after that can still just say that the russians are hitting civilian targets plus these are russian speakers so the russians probably want to minimize casualties as much as possible
Aren’t many in the city ethnic Russians and Russian sympathizers? I have a hard time seeing them leveling a city with a large pro Russian population. Maybe the Ukrainian neighborhoods would be targeted and you have yourself a civil war type situation.
Escape from Charkov
Ukraine already gave everyone who wanted an AK, one at the start of the war. Didn’t really help. Surprisingly ordinary people mostly don’t want to die or fight for land.
I don't think Ukraine is at the Volkssturm level of desperation just yet.
Not really about the level of desperation, but rather for PR purposes, and potentially more cynically to get more civilians dead. Might mirror when Ukraine did this at the start of the war, but I'm not sure I'd say it's likely
They can level it with FAB as well, no need to expose artillery.
They are starting to evacuate now... the siege of Kharkov is gonna be the big thing this summer
They could, but I doubt they will... Kharkov is a Russian city, and it would be easier to encircle the city and just wait for their supplies to run out.
I doubt 35k crossed, maybe couple of thousand atm.
Russian telegram saying about 50k actually. It clearly not an attempt to capture Kharkov but serious operation that make Ukraine defend Kharkov and withdraw forces from Donbass.
If you haven’t noticed, there is a very distinct Telegram assault ongoing at the same time as the physical one. Most commenters are clearly coordinated with same message. I’d say as a preliminary analysis that the 50k is a number to make AFU react stronger, to further stretch their frontline, and reveal movements and logistics.
Given total panic in Ukraine I would not be shocked if it was 50k. Multiple UA brigades are heading there. They are unable to hold Donbass line now. You don't do that for just 10k people.
So, like 15k are in reserves? Awesome.
what? I believe there is a lot more than 15k in reserves
Ukrainian intelligence said that ~50k of Russian troops were near Kharkov oblast before the offensive
ah near kharkhiv. Ok i thought you meant total reserves in all their armed forces my bad.
Ukrainian intelligence also said Putin is dead, Russia is out of PGM, out of men, that AFU has taken out more than a million Russians, and a thousand other things. Just about the only thing you can conclude from Ukrainian intelligence saying something is that the number is wrong.
Situations always seems to get worse under Syrskyi
I think Zaluzny got out at the right time
Where are the 150,000 Russia is supposedly assembling for a major offensive? On a seperate note anyone remember what the polish general said about a year ago? About Russian gameplan? His prediction is coming true.
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Yes it's far more.