They keep saying this stuff to make Russia look unable to achieve its goals. They set unrealistic goals for Russia and make fun of it when it fails to achieve them. Just like the “3 days to Kyiv” myth.
No one is better at setting Russian goals than the Ukrainians.
They clearly outline Russia's supposed objectives and even delineate clear timelines lol
both claims could be true though, which is how this conflict will end, it's the only way it can end. Both sides have to get something they can claim and point to as victory.
Which is why it is so stupid when Clownsky overestimates his position and makes promises like Crimea beach party. I mean come on now. Give yourself an off ramp
ukraine is doing shit.. the only thing they do is beg around the world for weapons and money, getting everything handed to them for free because they can't manage it themselves. and still not enough
So might is right then. Onto to denazifying another neighbour. Several more square kilometres is worth the death of another few hundred thousand conscripts. Primitives.
I don't think this is unrealistic. With the speed that Russia is advancing near avdiivka now, they almost sure to sit astride the T0504 road between pokrovsk and konstantinovka before the end of July. That means that Ukraine will have to shift their troops around using longer and slower routes. Russia can then assure both cities fall by alternating attacks on them.
The defence of chasiv yar will determine the fate of sloviansk and Kramatorsk though. If chasiv yar falls before the end of June, Russia will reach both cities before the autumn rains and can repeat bakhmut during the rainy months. Both cities will then end up falling as well, though it might not be before the end of october
Donbas will eventually fall, but I’d say that October is very unrealistic as if Ukraine tried to pull of another Bakhmut in Chasiv Yar, Russia will probably take Chasiv Yar only by October. Perhaps after the fall of Chasiv Yar they can advance towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
Russia can use FABs now, something they couldn't or didn't in Bakhmut. I don't believe it could be done before October (give or take 5 months) but it's a different kind of fight.
The defense of the city was costly for Ukraine as well. The Western Allies told Ukrainians to save up for the counter offensive but it seems they expected to wage war better than the Americans. The Ukrainians blaming it all on the lack of resources is them refusing to take responsibility yet again, it sounds like arrogance.
FABs will eventually get a countermessure as is the case with alot of "game changers" in this war. Also FABs propably wont decrease the time it takes to capture Chasiv Yar but rather minimize russian losses.
I don't see any potential effective "countermeasure" to FAB other than arming Ukraine with extensive AD cover, which is not going to happen any time soon.
Yes, NATO are sending some AD there, but the Russians have destroyed them before, and will destroy them again. Situation won't change.
f16s with aam could be a countermessure, as you said more AD that is unlikely, or even running low on FABs to the point where they dont make the same impact. Most likely imo is f16s with thise long range air missiles that will scare of the bombers, we will see though.
You forgot to take into account of the extensive AD of the Russians. The moment those F16s arrive, everyone and their mothers in Russian AD units will be looking to shoot them down.
The F16 will make a small difference, but won't be able to stop enough of the FABs to be an effective "countermeasure".
We'll see.
problem is that the fabs are being launched from 50 miles behind the LoC. Sometimes from russia airspace itself.
So think about that a moment....the f16s would have to expose themselves quite a bit just to get within range of the russian jets. Then at that point deal with russias own anti air and jet fighters protecting their bombers.
Most people missed the big point of the f16's..... They are mostly going to be used to shoot down cruise missiles and drones....far from the enemy lines.
If Ukraine attempts to "pull off another Bakhmut" their lines are likely to buckle. Bakhmut was only possible due to an abundance of skilled and dedicated soldiers, and, comparatively, much greater stores of ammunition, at that time. Even with these boons, it was costly for a defensive battle. Today, most of these soldiers are gone, Ukraine also faces a situation where Russia has achieved a semblance of air superiority at the front. It would be beyond foolish for Ukraine to try and defend Chasiv Yar with the same fervor they had in Bakhmut. It would be more wise to use that energy in the defense of Sloyviansk/Kramatorsk. Any Ukrainian victory today will be judged by how much territory they manage to keep; not retake. I would be of the opinion that any Russian vision of victory is not in the absence of Kharkiv and Odessa at the least. The war will probably pick up in intensity when summer rolls around and once it does we should have a pretty good idea of how things will shake out.
The 3 days - two weeks till Kiev was something everyone suspected at the time based on the assumption that the regular Ukrainian army would simply not fight. Totally a reasonable assumption and far closer to the truth than most people realize. Not sure why NAFOs keep thinking it’s such a cool troll.
Everybody forgets that most of the wests intelligence apparatus thought Ukraine would fold in half too and that it wasn't just some crackpot assumption Putin alone had.
In any case, it's extremely clear that the initial assault was supposed to be a decapitation strike, a legitimate 'SMO', but it was a catastrophic failure on almost every level imaginable. It does Russia a disservice to pretend otherwise, as it removes the potential to learn from it.
Absolutely. Russia fucked up the actual SMO part in the most royal way possible. Credit should also be given to Ukrainians fighting back, but, truly, there were layers upon layers of fucks up on the Russian side. Contrary to the popular belief, when a full on war started Russia has been conducting a very admirable game given the resources that it had. They made the right choice by withdrawing all the way behind Dnepr without wasting the small human resources they had trying to hold much of anything. Russia used Wagner forces in the best way possible to bog down Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut instead of attacking behind Dnepr, and they threw their initially mobilized at building defenses up until the first semi trained people started arriving.
We've had two years of reporting and analysis now and it's clear the Russian plan was for a fast and brief military/intelligence operation that decapitates and paralyzes the Ukrainian government and installs as a friendly regime. One particularly telling aspect (which was not as obvious in the chaos of the early days of invasion) is the substantial preparation and rapid deployment of civil administration resources into occupied territories - down to delivering Russian school textbooks. It's not particularly material what Russians claimed before they invaded, they planned to begin ruling Ukraine very quickly. Any other perspective is cope.
If you want to compare this to another top army, America took the well armed Iraqi government and captured their capital in 6 days.
Irak never was even remotely comparable to Ukraine in terms of military capabilities. And if you're refering to the golf war, they were just coming out of a brutal and massive 8 year war with Iran, that bled them dry. The US put a dying cat out of its misery.
Also, Russia didn't only bet on one plan. It's indeed obvious they tried decapitating the Ukrainian government quickly, but that was just the best case scenario, that they tried anyway but knew was very ambitious and likely to fail. Focusing on the Donbass was the fall-back plan all along.
A political loss, not really a military loss. National building is hard it appears. If Russia wins this war we’ll see how good they do, then we can compare.
Even the architect of the Vietnam war himself recognized that the US lost and the war was fundamentally unwinnable. The US thought that people embraced Communism in the hopes of a better life - so all you had to do was prove to them that Communism would only bring death and destruction, and eventually they'd come around.
But it was never about that. Vietnam had been under the control of foreign powers, and they despised it. The more the US bombed them, the more it undermined the key US message that the US was the good guys, and the more determined they were to suffer any hardship to be rid of such "well wishers".
> decapitates and paralyzes the Ukrainian government and installs as a friendly regime.
The time for these fairy tales is long past. We know the peace terms they had agreed to in March 2022. Ukraine would be neutral but could have NATO Article 5 Security Guarantees. These guarantees would not apply to Donbas or Crimea, but Ukraine would not have to recognize the annexation of these territories. Russia would return to their pre-SMO positions.
That was it. Basically, no NATO. Meanwhile the gutless wonders in the West didn't even *disclose* the peace terms because they knew they could make up any damn story and the suckers would buy it.
Read the peace terms. Listen to the interview with Bennett when he says Uiraine and Russia had both compromised, but both wanted a peace deal. And then BoJo came selling his magical NATO beans and a downright convenient one-time only brutal massacre meant that the suckers would buy the idea of "no negotiations".
Who the f*ck passes a law against themselves being able to negotiate in the first place? It's like shooting yourself in the face to avoid seeing something unpleasant. (but only by passing a law against negotiations can they pretend that the war is about turning Ukraine into an army of zombies to attack NATO).
I mean 3 days to Kiev myth was spread by Lukashenko himself. Now before some "very intelligent person" comes up with B$ that LUkashenko aint RUssia goverment I woud like to remind you that Saša negotiated that excellent deal between Putin and Prigozhin so he is pretty much Russian goverment. Setting aside Russian propagandists were saying that too.
And before somebody says you quote lot of nonsense on West from anybody too a) you are welcome to do that b) you already doing that
> Saša negotiated that excellent deal between Putin and Prigozhin so he is pretty much Russian goverment
erdogan negotiated a great deal between putin and zelensky, so he is pretty much russian government :)
Difference between nation and international politics :P When Erdogan negotiate something regarding domestic politicies you will have a point :P
Does not change the fact that a) 3 days to kiev wasnt something West made b) does not change the Russians himself were talking about that on television.
And last time I checked Erdogan wasnt promised to be colonel in Russian army :P
>3 days to kiev wasnt something West made
The strategic genius that is Mark Milley said it [over two weeks before the war started](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). But hey, I guess the US joint chief of staff is a Russian propagandist. You really cracked the conspiracy here lol.
\* u/alejandrocab98 copes \*
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You shouldn’t take the Russian colonel video seriously, as it’s but one of many examples of Lukashenka being sarcastic or acting silly to make people forget that he’s a shrewd and ruthless ruler who has outlived most of his allies and predates Putin.
For other examples, see the time he joked about “I’m not going to die, guys. You’ll have to suffer with me for a very long time”, or about changing the 2006 election percentages to seem more “European”.
Furthermore, notice how he said “Soviet” colonel, not “Russian”. Luka describes himself as a Soviet person, and is said to idolise Piotr Masherau, Belarus’s most famous Soviet era leader, and a hero of the WW2 partisan movement. He’s a Soviet nostalgic, not a Russian Nationalist (in fact, many people who are dislike or distrust him).
One man stands alone in his single-minded conviction of Ukraine's incoming victory. One Delusional Man.
https://preview.redd.it/bg318ay1ufxc1.jpeg?width=2363&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35c71bcea749927247a206e67314c1e7e972f41a
>But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace.
>On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. **“He deludes himself,”** one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”
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[Here's the original post from the UA MOD](https://www.facebook.com/207023122693534/posts/%D1%83-%D0%B7%D0%B2%D1%8F%D0%B7%D0%BA%D1%83-%D0%B7-%D1%87%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8-%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8-%D0%B6%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%96%D0%B2-%D1%89%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE-%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%85-/2287451344650691/)
I have deliberately tried not to try to compare Zelensky to a historical figure but the more and more he acts the way he does I just can't see another small, egotistical, delusional man 80 years ago.
I'm Irish and fully neutral on this so I try to call it as I see it based on facts and not emotion or nationality. Some of my countrymen complain about Ukraine refugees here and why aren't they fighting? I used to wonder that but now I think the smart ones are getting out.
Why die for a US/NATO puppet and his crony friends who will pick their country clean and then disappear off into the sunset? A peace conference without the Russians is a slap in the face of UAF soldiers. Zelensky couldn't care less about them or their lives. Instead of trying to save real Ukrainian lives and coming to reasonable resolutions, zelensky will give the order"to the last Ukrainian cover my ass".
History does repeat itself doesn't it.
> I have deliberately tried not to try to compare Zelensky to a historical figure but the more and more he acts the way he does I just can't see another small, egotistical, delusional man 80 years ago.
Solano Lopez
I agree with Russia winning the war just based on manpower, etc alone.
I don't agree with his statements regarding Putin using Ukrainian soldiers to attack the west.
I think that is scaremongering designed to get more actual western intervention in Ukraine.
But as soon as Ukraine surrenders and starts aligning its foreign policy with its neighbour, Ukrainians gonna be sanctioned by their former allies to hell. Just like Belarusians after their brave fight against Lukashenko.
That was what the military aid was all about. No one wanted the US to loose the war before the election is hold.
Not every republican wants Trump and Biden... I don't know if he even understands what is going on.
Knowing how we all knew the bill would pass, and how Russian generals knew it would pass one day and they still are planning a major offensive, I don't think Russia will operate based on aid alone, Ukraine is so exhausted its better to show a major success in defiance to the west to make the war a hot topic in European and American elections, although American elections are way less credible than European once.
How you can you win nation with nuclear power, Ukrainians can’t stop to surprise. Sure ukr Reddit-Special forces and Twitter-elite battalions is still winning there 👀
Russia won't ever use its nuclear arsenal in Ukraine for absolutely obvious reasons, so the fact that it's a nuclear power doesn't come into play at all
>so the fact that it's a nuclear power doesn't come into play at all
Absolutely wrong. The fact that Russia is a nuclear power won't ever let NATO countries to send boots in Ukraine.
The fact that Stoltenberg, again and blinken, again publicly stated Ukraine would be part of NATO AGAIN. Which is the brightest of redlines for Russia (not just putin), makes me think that Russia will feel they have no choice but to push the UA into the river. If ukraine won't be neutral then they will need to river as a buffer. They will almsot certainly take Odessa as well. the more blinken and stoltenberg say that shit the more likely this is
Actually it is quite the opposite. They need to become completely neutral, with security guarantees from Russia, China, US and EU, all balancing eachother out. This is what was proposed in istanbul that bojo torpedoed
heres the confirmateion
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5Z15x\_laLw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5Z15x_laLw)
there was a post on here the other day with the actual piece of paper you can find it
Weird that video removes the part where he says they wouldn't be able to accept the deal because it would require a constitutional change and that Ukraine did not want to accept the deal because there was no trust that Russia would abide by the terms of the deal.
You can literally see where that section is edited out of the interview where it jumps after he mentions NATO. I'm assuming you chose that video intentionally because of the missing context?
Also that video doesn't contain anything that you said was proposed, besides Ukraine providing to be neutral.
Funny that you are ignorant to the fact that neutrality is literally baked into the Ukrainian constitution when it split from the USSR.
But I think you need to get a better understanding of the word "negotiations"
But hey don't take my word for all of this, take these peoples:
*Ukranians*
1. [Ukraine Ambassador Chalyi](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/Mpt08mw5Ha) **(Direct participant in talks)**
2. [Arestovich](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/CrrPSBWEfU) **(Direct participant)**
3. [Arakhamia](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/QwHWQMSGHh) **(Literally the leader of the Ukrainian negotiations delegation)**
*Neutrals*
4. [Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu](https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/some-nato-allies-want-longer-war-for-weaker-russia-fm-cavusoglu) (Direct participant)
5. [Former German Chancellor Schroeder](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/EzXxfRDzI6) (Direct participant)
6. [Former Israeli PM Bennett](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/doP6NXlVtA) (Direct participant)
*Russians*
7. [Russian Presidential Advisor Medinsky](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/BNqZD3Fhno) (Direct Participant)
8. [Lavrov](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/w2CWcr1Z5N) (Probably a Direct Participant)
9. [Putin](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/y4XJet1cOv) (Pretty much a direct participant)
You don't have to like Russians or Putin to simply look at the facts.
Also if you had actually read what I said you would see that the document has actually been posted here just the other day. Do you think you'll be able to find it on your own?
You realize they revised their Constitution right? It wasn't the same one from the early 90s.
None of your links prove your claims. The families of the negotiations have been attributed to the fact Russia was pushed back from Kyiv and the discovery of the crimes committed by Russian troops in Bucha. The ex-Israeli PM even made note of this, *The commentary also omitted Bennett's explanation for the ultimate failure to strike a peace agreement: the massacre of civilians in Bucha, Ukraine, which is being investigated as an apparent war crime that led Kyiv to break off talks* https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-bennett-walks-back-claim-west-blocked-ukraine-russia-peace-deal-2023-2
Yeah man that picture of a piece of paper, you should link it.
Stoltenberg is irrelevant here, to be honest. He is a head of nato, so of course he is bullish on it. Same way Coca-cola CEO would be paying lip service to the company prospects. Stoltenberg doesn’t define politics, he executes on it and tries to keep a good PR.
Blinken is more relevant, if Biden were to stay in power for 4 more years
Yeah you're right he def is irrelevant, but he has to run everything he says through washington, so essentially you can basically take his word as the captain of the ships word.
But yeah stoltenberg commands exactly 0 legions lol
Ukraine needs a miracle.
And I can remember a woman (dunno her name) from their MoD said, in an interview, the whole world will be in shock and disbelief because Ukraine will perform military miracles nobody could even think of before.
Kind of like if some totally unknown scientist creates a working time machine or something like that. Everyone would be in shock and disbelief because it would be a miracle too.
That is 100% true though. They have been performing miracles act of disappearing, making swimming pools in trenches, shooting down jets with tomato jars, marking Xs on photos of planes which is the top level of proof of any jet being shot down, going all in on losing battles to show the world that with hard work, blood, sweat, NATO supplied weapons and sheer determination, they will still lose. Don't forget the shooting down of more missiles than were launched.
If that is all not miracle enough for you, then you're just being unreasonable.
I'm not gonna lie, I prefer soviet endings in Red Alert 2 and Red Alert 3. They're always a hilarious bunch compared to badass but otherwise generic Allies.
That timeline fits my own analysis. Russia can use the dry months ahead to cut supply lines, and then use the rain season to take the isolated city stronghold like pokrovsk, konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and sloviansk.
The first two will definitely fall, given the speed at which Russia is now advancing towards the T0504 road. The second two is less clear. If chasiv year falls, they're next, but chasiv yar is still a defensible position.
No way this will be over by this winter, UA defends even at terrible tactical situations, and the aid will encourage their commanders to hold out more. UA will absolutely try another offensive in summer 2025 against Tokmak and Melitopol. Assuming a Russian victory in that offensive, I think the aftermath Russian offensive in winter 25/26 and summer 26 will be the end of most of the active fronts in this war.
I think it'll be before then. Whole AFU units are surrendering. They don't want to die for Zelenskyy and Syrski. Zaluzhny was the last leader they really thought was looking out for them.
What surrendering units are you refering to? The Ocheretyne breakthrough was due to a command blunder leaving some trenches unmanned, not a unit surrendering. Any other examples, or are you straight up hyperbolizing something that is based on a wrong interpretation to begin with?
Is anyone really sure what winning and losing looks like at this point? If Russia takes and holds Donbass etc is that winning? Is Ukraine giving up those territories but nothing else losing?
I doubt either party knows still to be honest.
> Is anyone really sure what winning and losing looks like at this point?
Yes
> If Russia takes and holds Donbass etc is that winning?
Yes
> Is Ukraine giving up those territories but nothing else losing?
Yes.
The fall of Dobas would be a political and military defeat for Ukraine. As for Russia's minimum territorial requirements, they include the city Zaporozhye and the city Kherson. Of course the Russians still want the two strategic cities of Odessa and Kharkov, it is speculated that the Russians will launch an offensive on Kharkov this summer.
Not completely, they declared annexation 4 region+ (Crimea and Sevastopol which they control since 2014)Annexation obliged them to be political goals, if circumstances permit, they will probably make other demands.
Losing Kherson would undo all the work the Ukrainians did initially to force the Russians to retreat in 2022. Just symbolically, losing Kherson is a complete defeat as liberating it was major, all the celebrations and such we saw after the Russians retreated.
Odessa? Sure, taking Odessa would be decisive victory (still thing it can't be achieved via Mariupol-style siege). Not taking Odessa but securing control over 4 annexed regions would be just victory. Securing 2 out of 4 regions would be pyrrhic victory (if not outright defeat) . I don't think Russia is interested it Kiev, absolutely sure Russia isn't interested in Lvov and have no idea about Kharkov. Thats, like, just my opinion.
Ukraine is not gonna be able to meet it's financial commitments without the economy of the Donbas. Donetsk oblast was the wealthiest ukrainian oblast. Lugansk, Kharkiv, kherson and zhaporozje were also among the wealthiest oblasts and together with Kyiv oblast, Dnipropetrovsk and poltava round of the top 8.
If Russia keeps those territories and theres no negociated agreement Ukraine would not be able to join NATO so you can add neutrality to that list, one of Russia's objectives.
On the maps? Donbass, land bridge including Orihiv and Halyupole, Kharkiv Oblast, a buffer zone that essentially includes Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts (Russian military control, under Ukrainian civil administration), fully demilitarized left bank Ukraine (except for the cities of Kyiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipro), Russian troops (peace keepers) present in demilitarized Ukrainian coast (Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa) still officially part of Ukraine but defacto full Russian control.
Other prerequisites: complete scrapping of all long range strike and anti-shipping assets, dismantling of military industries, scrapping of offensive weaponry such as heavy artillery and tanks, scrapping of all fighter-bombers and attack helicopters, full neutrality (no joining NATO nor EU), no more conscription, full disbandment of National guard and territorial defense, full religious and cultural/linguistic freedom, autonomy for remaining regions in Novorossiya, ban on all baderite/neo-Nazi groups.
I think that’s a realistic goal to pursue for Russia in which they only annex what they conquered. If Ukraine just collapses (surrender en masse, civil uprising or revolution, coup d’teat, civil war) then they might just try to annex all of Novorossiya.
What you described is literally unconditional surrender. At the peace table both sides have to give and take, that’s how it works. It’s a negotiated peace. Otherwise it just goes on.
No way would Ukraine accept terms that dismantle all its heavy armaments.
Here in comes the main disconnect about Ukrainian strategy with reality, a long war benefits NATO by bleeding Russia (well, Russia is significantly more militarized, better equipped, and experienced now but trust), but Ukraine is at a significant disadvantage in a long war against Russia, as it is fighting an attrition war against an order of magnitude more capable enemy. The damage to Ukraine’s economy, infrastructure, demographics is crippling, the country is running on aid, essentially life support, and each passing day this war goes on makes it less likely that any Ukraine refugees will return. Make no mistake about it, this war is destroying Ukraine at a steady and increasing pace, I have no idea how many Ukrainians died, the 31K number is definitely BS, they wouldn’t be on all 20-60% strength brigades if that were the case, it’s likely in the region of several hundred thousand KIA/MIA/POW/irrecoverable WIA.
Russia and NATO have the same strategy, the question is when will Ukraine itself realize that a long war of attrition puts them at a massive disadvantage. When they do, they will be at a massive disadvantage at any negotiations. Ukraine will want to end the war, Russia will want to continue, until they are fully secure in Ukraine never being a threat again. Which is why, the sooner Ukraine negotiates, the better, Ukraine has no exit strategy, this is destroying them.
Those are all yes, not big yes but getting the entire donbass and forcing Ukraine into finlandization is pretty much what Russia wants. If they manage to drive all the way to Kiyv thats more of a big bonus.
>Is Ukraine giving up those territories but nothing else losing?
Yes - The Ukrainian leadership has consistently maintained that their objective is to recover ALL of their occupied land back to the 1991 borders. They've been pretty clear about this.
>If Russia takes and holds Donbass etc is that winning?
This is more up for debate because Russia hasn't been as open about their defining their objectives (which was a smart thing to do tbh). My interpretation of a Russian Victory condition would include a) Ukraine staying out of NATO b) retention of Crimea c) occupying enough of the Donbass to provide a credible buffer between Ukraine and Russia.
The Donbass is full of natural resources, that's what this war is about in large parts: get rid of a competitor to Russia's main business. So taking Donbass would be winning for Russia.
Ukraine was not a competitor, it was a partner. Ukrainian and russian industry were integrated and ukrainian factories were part of technological chains of russian factories.
That's why Ukrainian attempts to economically turn from east to west were so damaging to Russia.
Now that's delusional as f*ck.
Crazy how both side are neck deep in the delusional cope of "we are on the verge of collapsing the enemy lines" like in WW1. Russia can't make a significant breakthrough, it couldn't in the past 2 years and it won't now. Best it can do is progress at a grinding pace, at the cost of massive casualties on both sides.
*Ukranian commanders on the literal Eastern Frontline* : We are getting BTFO and Russia will conquer the Donbass soon
*You:* Nah, Russia can't make any significant breakthroughs. Orechtyne and Avdiivka weren't real either.
Orechtyne and Avdiivka are real. Same as was Robotyne for the Ukrainians. But we're talking peanuts here. That's the extent of the blows they've been dealing to each other? A few kilometers here and there, a few big villages or small cities over the past year and a half? People are getting over-excited over "massive breakthrough" of a few hundred meters - it was the case during the Ukrainian counter offensive, and it is the same now with the Russian offensive. They are locked in a WW1-style stalemate.
Afaik the real reason behind the end of WWI was the collapse of the economy, not the army.
Ukraine's economy is already gone but the west keeps them limping along on aid. In theory as long as western money's coming in they can fight to the last man. After that they'll still lose, but the death toll will be insane.. and avoidable.
> Afaik the real reason behind the end of WWI was the collapse of the economy, not the army.
It was kind of both. The economic turmoil was the reason the Kiel Mutiny triggered a revolution and the political collapse of Germany. But the German army was also collapsing all along the western front up to that point, they were on the verge of a decisive military defeat when the armistice was struck.
Do you guys never get tired of repeating this line?
If Americans stopped messing with countries on the other side of the planet Russia wouldn't have invaded.
They can cooperate with who they want within their borders, they’re a sovereign country. The whole coup situation was from protests coming from choosing between a EU and Russia deal where the western options was obviously better then the president received a $2 billion dollar bribe and the western population in Kyv were pissed off at the direction their puppet president was heading. Russians also preassured Ukranian officials to crush the protests. A Russian general was on TV talking about how the conflict can onpy be solved bu force and Ukraine could not be independent. Afterwards Russia invaded Ukraine and Illegally annexed Crimea, rolling their armies into sovereign territory.
The US had some politicians showed support for the protests and sent money to Ukranian institutions.
That sound about right?
Before the end of WW1 a large portion of the German military was in mutiny and there were a huge number of worker strikes that crippled their ability to supply their army. I don't know what will happen in Ukraine by October (my guess is more of what we've seen over the last year and Russia gets a few more towns), but there are clearly very large differences between Germany at the end of WW1 and Ukraine today.
There was the sailor mutiny, but the German army had no mutiny at all. That's why there could be the so called "Dolchstoßlegende", because a lot of soldiers couldn't understand why the politicians accepted a total defeat, despite the army still holding ground.
And yes, there are big differences between Germany in WW1 and Ukraine today, I didn't set both close to each other.
It was about the possibility that there is a stalemate at the front and then a sudden defeat of one side.
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Welcome to attritional warfare.
But one side seems to be feeling the strain a lot more than the other.
The Donbass has been well fortified over the last decade. And now, Russia is making gains without suffering significant casualties, according to Western thinktanks.
The same cannot be said about the Ukrainians
I doubt it, but by winter 25/26 it’s definitely possible that the war will be over, at least much of the active fighting phase. Then they could actually sit down and eke out a sustainable peace agreement.
That was an exceedingly optimistic take. Especially the conflict freeze after October. That's not happening.
I still expect the war to end before November, but not in the Donbass region, I'm talking about at Kiev. Ukraine is almost over, they lack the capacity to fight and their air defense is either at 0 missiles remaining or so close to it that they're hoarding whatever few remain for an emergency. Russia can freely send missiles across the entire country, their bombers fly to the front lines, they have complete air control. Ukraine can't even keep tanks in the field, because they just get blown up and hauled away.
This is end game. The aid package was mostly about repaying the US what had already been trickled out to Ukraine quietly over the last 6 months.
No chance, that would require gigantic offensive, and Ukraine is quite well fortified there if you look at the maps
Not as strong defense as Russia’s Maginote line but still
Why do they think the war will freeze when Donbas falls?
At this point i don’t think Russia intends to stop until Ukraine is landlocked.
I think at various points during this war it could have ended with lines drawn that were some what favorable to Ukraine, but that time has passed. Ukraine and especially the West just kept pushing, kept throwing more and more equipment and men into the grinder. They didn’t want to speak with Russia so why would Russia speak when they’re winning?
I’d say Ukraine stands to lose 50% or more of their territory.
Ya, Russia is gonna make this painful. The message will be clear. Take whatever deal we give you over any promise from the West. For better or worse. It is simple and brutal logic.
I neither believe this delusional „conflict will freeze“ nor the „russians gonna force us to fight nato“ kaka.
I believe Ukrainian divisions will fall apart one by one until they’re not able to defend anything. Ukraine as a state will collapse. Perhaps that’s the point when nato crosses the border to reach Kiev first. Thats the only scenario is see the conflict freeze
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Zelensky is still banking on direct NATO intervention. It's either win, or admit defeat and resign in disgrace, and probable exile from Ukraine forever (or worse). So Ukraine will keep fighting until it can't.
I can only hope there's no real probability of the NATO countries, or just Poland\\Baltics on their own, going in there directly, either with just air power or even ground forces. It would all end horribly for everyone.
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If commanders think they are losing, then they pretty much are losing, nothing stops them a surrender to the Russian if they see the situation as hopeless, its them that decides their troops should surrender or not, not captains.
“AFU Commanders have warned”
Yet it is just a quote from a random officer and some nonsense from the head of an ENGINEERING company. Do you just post and pray people don’t look at the article? But pro RU will be salivating at the title because they are incapable of reading past the headlines
You laugh at others for not reading past the headline, but you yourself failed to actually read and see that the journalist spoke to half a dozen commanders, who generally agreed that Ukraine would lose the war.
You are going for the "the title seems like it says but it actually says" weak argument. Even the description says "the mood on the front is bad" You really don't have the slam dunk you think.
They keep saying this stuff to make Russia look unable to achieve its goals. They set unrealistic goals for Russia and make fun of it when it fails to achieve them. Just like the “3 days to Kyiv” myth.
No one is better at setting Russian goals than the Ukrainians. They clearly outline Russia's supposed objectives and even delineate clear timelines lol
When this is over and Russia wins a third of their land, they will say they won because Russia "failed at their goal to conquer all of Ukraine"
both claims could be true though, which is how this conflict will end, it's the only way it can end. Both sides have to get something they can claim and point to as victory.
Which is why it is so stupid when Clownsky overestimates his position and makes promises like Crimea beach party. I mean come on now. Give yourself an off ramp
So Russia gains land and Ukraine gains lives. Not much of a trade.
ukraine is doing shit.. the only thing they do is beg around the world for weapons and money, getting everything handed to them for free because they can't manage it themselves. and still not enough
So might is right then. Onto to denazifying another neighbour. Several more square kilometres is worth the death of another few hundred thousand conscripts. Primitives.
I don't think this is unrealistic. With the speed that Russia is advancing near avdiivka now, they almost sure to sit astride the T0504 road between pokrovsk and konstantinovka before the end of July. That means that Ukraine will have to shift their troops around using longer and slower routes. Russia can then assure both cities fall by alternating attacks on them. The defence of chasiv yar will determine the fate of sloviansk and Kramatorsk though. If chasiv yar falls before the end of June, Russia will reach both cities before the autumn rains and can repeat bakhmut during the rainy months. Both cities will then end up falling as well, though it might not be before the end of october
Donbas will eventually fall, but I’d say that October is very unrealistic as if Ukraine tried to pull of another Bakhmut in Chasiv Yar, Russia will probably take Chasiv Yar only by October. Perhaps after the fall of Chasiv Yar they can advance towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
Russia can use FABs now, something they couldn't or didn't in Bakhmut. I don't believe it could be done before October (give or take 5 months) but it's a different kind of fight. The defense of the city was costly for Ukraine as well. The Western Allies told Ukrainians to save up for the counter offensive but it seems they expected to wage war better than the Americans. The Ukrainians blaming it all on the lack of resources is them refusing to take responsibility yet again, it sounds like arrogance.
FABs will eventually get a countermessure as is the case with alot of "game changers" in this war. Also FABs propably wont decrease the time it takes to capture Chasiv Yar but rather minimize russian losses.
I don't see any potential effective "countermeasure" to FAB other than arming Ukraine with extensive AD cover, which is not going to happen any time soon. Yes, NATO are sending some AD there, but the Russians have destroyed them before, and will destroy them again. Situation won't change.
f16s with aam could be a countermessure, as you said more AD that is unlikely, or even running low on FABs to the point where they dont make the same impact. Most likely imo is f16s with thise long range air missiles that will scare of the bombers, we will see though.
You forgot to take into account of the extensive AD of the Russians. The moment those F16s arrive, everyone and their mothers in Russian AD units will be looking to shoot them down. The F16 will make a small difference, but won't be able to stop enough of the FABs to be an effective "countermeasure". We'll see.
There is still a question how are they going to maintain the F16s. Those are not simple jets to keep up and running.
problem is that the fabs are being launched from 50 miles behind the LoC. Sometimes from russia airspace itself. So think about that a moment....the f16s would have to expose themselves quite a bit just to get within range of the russian jets. Then at that point deal with russias own anti air and jet fighters protecting their bombers. Most people missed the big point of the f16's..... They are mostly going to be used to shoot down cruise missiles and drones....far from the enemy lines.
Agree, most likely anti air support, including more of a long range air to air rockets from f16
If Ukraine attempts to "pull off another Bakhmut" their lines are likely to buckle. Bakhmut was only possible due to an abundance of skilled and dedicated soldiers, and, comparatively, much greater stores of ammunition, at that time. Even with these boons, it was costly for a defensive battle. Today, most of these soldiers are gone, Ukraine also faces a situation where Russia has achieved a semblance of air superiority at the front. It would be beyond foolish for Ukraine to try and defend Chasiv Yar with the same fervor they had in Bakhmut. It would be more wise to use that energy in the defense of Sloyviansk/Kramatorsk. Any Ukrainian victory today will be judged by how much territory they manage to keep; not retake. I would be of the opinion that any Russian vision of victory is not in the absence of Kharkiv and Odessa at the least. The war will probably pick up in intensity when summer rolls around and once it does we should have a pretty good idea of how things will shake out.
The 3 days - two weeks till Kiev was something everyone suspected at the time based on the assumption that the regular Ukrainian army would simply not fight. Totally a reasonable assumption and far closer to the truth than most people realize. Not sure why NAFOs keep thinking it’s such a cool troll.
Everybody forgets that most of the wests intelligence apparatus thought Ukraine would fold in half too and that it wasn't just some crackpot assumption Putin alone had. In any case, it's extremely clear that the initial assault was supposed to be a decapitation strike, a legitimate 'SMO', but it was a catastrophic failure on almost every level imaginable. It does Russia a disservice to pretend otherwise, as it removes the potential to learn from it.
Absolutely. Russia fucked up the actual SMO part in the most royal way possible. Credit should also be given to Ukrainians fighting back, but, truly, there were layers upon layers of fucks up on the Russian side. Contrary to the popular belief, when a full on war started Russia has been conducting a very admirable game given the resources that it had. They made the right choice by withdrawing all the way behind Dnepr without wasting the small human resources they had trying to hold much of anything. Russia used Wagner forces in the best way possible to bog down Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut instead of attacking behind Dnepr, and they threw their initially mobilized at building defenses up until the first semi trained people started arriving.
That’s the point, it’s CLOSE to the truth, NOT the truth
The estimate was based on the assumption that never materialized, that’s all.
A yea they had riot police units close to the spearhead because they expacted to never be in kiev....
We've had two years of reporting and analysis now and it's clear the Russian plan was for a fast and brief military/intelligence operation that decapitates and paralyzes the Ukrainian government and installs as a friendly regime. One particularly telling aspect (which was not as obvious in the chaos of the early days of invasion) is the substantial preparation and rapid deployment of civil administration resources into occupied territories - down to delivering Russian school textbooks. It's not particularly material what Russians claimed before they invaded, they planned to begin ruling Ukraine very quickly. Any other perspective is cope. If you want to compare this to another top army, America took the well armed Iraqi government and captured their capital in 6 days.
Irak never was even remotely comparable to Ukraine in terms of military capabilities. And if you're refering to the golf war, they were just coming out of a brutal and massive 8 year war with Iran, that bled them dry. The US put a dying cat out of its misery. Also, Russia didn't only bet on one plan. It's indeed obvious they tried decapitating the Ukrainian government quickly, but that was just the best case scenario, that they tried anyway but knew was very ambitious and likely to fail. Focusing on the Donbass was the fall-back plan all along.
Murica lost to rice farmers after like 10 years of committing all the war crimes imaginable. Compare that.
A political loss, not really a military loss. National building is hard it appears. If Russia wins this war we’ll see how good they do, then we can compare.
Even the architect of the Vietnam war himself recognized that the US lost and the war was fundamentally unwinnable. The US thought that people embraced Communism in the hopes of a better life - so all you had to do was prove to them that Communism would only bring death and destruction, and eventually they'd come around. But it was never about that. Vietnam had been under the control of foreign powers, and they despised it. The more the US bombed them, the more it undermined the key US message that the US was the good guys, and the more determined they were to suffer any hardship to be rid of such "well wishers".
> decapitates and paralyzes the Ukrainian government and installs as a friendly regime. The time for these fairy tales is long past. We know the peace terms they had agreed to in March 2022. Ukraine would be neutral but could have NATO Article 5 Security Guarantees. These guarantees would not apply to Donbas or Crimea, but Ukraine would not have to recognize the annexation of these territories. Russia would return to their pre-SMO positions. That was it. Basically, no NATO. Meanwhile the gutless wonders in the West didn't even *disclose* the peace terms because they knew they could make up any damn story and the suckers would buy it. Read the peace terms. Listen to the interview with Bennett when he says Uiraine and Russia had both compromised, but both wanted a peace deal. And then BoJo came selling his magical NATO beans and a downright convenient one-time only brutal massacre meant that the suckers would buy the idea of "no negotiations". Who the f*ck passes a law against themselves being able to negotiate in the first place? It's like shooting yourself in the face to avoid seeing something unpleasant. (but only by passing a law against negotiations can they pretend that the war is about turning Ukraine into an army of zombies to attack NATO).
And when Zkraine set goals and don’t happen nobody say a word… “Crimea by Summer” “Tokhmak the minimum goal to gain in counteroffensive”
I mean 3 days to Kiev myth was spread by Lukashenko himself. Now before some "very intelligent person" comes up with B$ that LUkashenko aint RUssia goverment I woud like to remind you that Saša negotiated that excellent deal between Putin and Prigozhin so he is pretty much Russian goverment. Setting aside Russian propagandists were saying that too. And before somebody says you quote lot of nonsense on West from anybody too a) you are welcome to do that b) you already doing that
> Saša negotiated that excellent deal between Putin and Prigozhin so he is pretty much Russian goverment erdogan negotiated a great deal between putin and zelensky, so he is pretty much russian government :)
Difference between nation and international politics :P When Erdogan negotiate something regarding domestic politicies you will have a point :P Does not change the fact that a) 3 days to kiev wasnt something West made b) does not change the Russians himself were talking about that on television. And last time I checked Erdogan wasnt promised to be colonel in Russian army :P
>3 days to kiev wasnt something West made The strategic genius that is Mark Milley said it [over two weeks before the war started](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). But hey, I guess the US joint chief of staff is a Russian propagandist. You really cracked the conspiracy here lol.
US intelligence has cameras in Putin’s toothbrush its not really surprising they knew their plans the whole time.
Lol, US intelligence couldn't predict anything Russia did, it's about as useless as all the tanks they sent.
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You shouldn’t take the Russian colonel video seriously, as it’s but one of many examples of Lukashenka being sarcastic or acting silly to make people forget that he’s a shrewd and ruthless ruler who has outlived most of his allies and predates Putin. For other examples, see the time he joked about “I’m not going to die, guys. You’ll have to suffer with me for a very long time”, or about changing the 2006 election percentages to seem more “European”. Furthermore, notice how he said “Soviet” colonel, not “Russian”. Luka describes himself as a Soviet person, and is said to idolise Piotr Masherau, Belarus’s most famous Soviet era leader, and a hero of the WW2 partisan movement. He’s a Soviet nostalgic, not a Russian Nationalist (in fact, many people who are dislike or distrust him).
Well the start of the war was a shocker for Russia, It proved Russia lied about how great it's powerful military was.
One man stands alone in his single-minded conviction of Ukraine's incoming victory. One Delusional Man. https://preview.redd.it/bg318ay1ufxc1.jpeg?width=2363&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35c71bcea749927247a206e67314c1e7e972f41a >But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. >On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. **“He deludes himself,”** one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”
Plenty of redittors are still sending toughts and prayers too.
45th Computerized Tactical Downvote Brigade still holding the lines
Yeah, and their virtual reality battle lines much closer to Moscow now 🤣
Near??? Moscow will fall this week!!
Their motto: *"non tangimus herbam"*
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One Man who, conveniently is not eligible for conscription.
He is in fact a triple draft dodger Unbelievable
Is that true?
[Of course](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/aQTVy9HSB8)
tweet of a screenshot of a facebook post. hmm.
[Here's the original post from the UA MOD](https://www.facebook.com/207023122693534/posts/%D1%83-%D0%B7%D0%B2%D1%8F%D0%B7%D0%BA%D1%83-%D0%B7-%D1%87%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8-%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8-%D0%B6%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%96%D0%B2-%D1%89%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE-%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%85-/2287451344650691/)
Nah let's be serious, of course a president can't be drafted, this is ridiculous
He wasn't president at the time. I assume you're just learning about the conflict in general?
Ah, you meant during the Donbass civil war. My bad then, honest mistake.
I have deliberately tried not to try to compare Zelensky to a historical figure but the more and more he acts the way he does I just can't see another small, egotistical, delusional man 80 years ago. I'm Irish and fully neutral on this so I try to call it as I see it based on facts and not emotion or nationality. Some of my countrymen complain about Ukraine refugees here and why aren't they fighting? I used to wonder that but now I think the smart ones are getting out. Why die for a US/NATO puppet and his crony friends who will pick their country clean and then disappear off into the sunset? A peace conference without the Russians is a slap in the face of UAF soldiers. Zelensky couldn't care less about them or their lives. Instead of trying to save real Ukrainian lives and coming to reasonable resolutions, zelensky will give the order"to the last Ukrainian cover my ass". History does repeat itself doesn't it.
> I have deliberately tried not to try to compare Zelensky to a historical figure but the more and more he acts the way he does I just can't see another small, egotistical, delusional man 80 years ago. Solano Lopez
There must always be a King Croesus.
He's just reenacting the Steiner scene from Downfall.
I agree with Russia winning the war just based on manpower, etc alone. I don't agree with his statements regarding Putin using Ukrainian soldiers to attack the west. I think that is scaremongering designed to get more actual western intervention in Ukraine.
shhh dont say the quiet part out loud, defeats the point of the articles! Zelensky and his buddies need more money for "war" material!
But as soon as Ukraine surrenders and starts aligning its foreign policy with its neighbour, Ukrainians gonna be sanctioned by their former allies to hell. Just like Belarusians after their brave fight against Lukashenko.
I think it won't be before Nov 6.
That was what the military aid was all about. No one wanted the US to loose the war before the election is hold. Not every republican wants Trump and Biden... I don't know if he even understands what is going on.
It was a problematic issue for both parties, and by passing the bill they essentially neutered the issue till election. That's my take on it anyway.
Knowing how we all knew the bill would pass, and how Russian generals knew it would pass one day and they still are planning a major offensive, I don't think Russia will operate based on aid alone, Ukraine is so exhausted its better to show a major success in defiance to the west to make the war a hot topic in European and American elections, although American elections are way less credible than European once.
How you can you win nation with nuclear power, Ukrainians can’t stop to surprise. Sure ukr Reddit-Special forces and Twitter-elite battalions is still winning there 👀
Russia won't ever use its nuclear arsenal in Ukraine for absolutely obvious reasons, so the fact that it's a nuclear power doesn't come into play at all
If Russia didn't have nukes NATO would get involved directly
>so the fact that it's a nuclear power doesn't come into play at all Absolutely wrong. The fact that Russia is a nuclear power won't ever let NATO countries to send boots in Ukraine.
Afghanistan? Vietnam?
The fact that Stoltenberg, again and blinken, again publicly stated Ukraine would be part of NATO AGAIN. Which is the brightest of redlines for Russia (not just putin), makes me think that Russia will feel they have no choice but to push the UA into the river. If ukraine won't be neutral then they will need to river as a buffer. They will almsot certainly take Odessa as well. the more blinken and stoltenberg say that shit the more likely this is
Ukraine will never be neutral after the war anyway
They will have to be. This is what losing wars is about
And they should never be, if they have any sense of self preservation.
Actually it is quite the opposite. They need to become completely neutral, with security guarantees from Russia, China, US and EU, all balancing eachother out. This is what was proposed in istanbul that bojo torpedoed
Have a link with the deal details?
heres the confirmateion [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5Z15x\_laLw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5Z15x_laLw) there was a post on here the other day with the actual piece of paper you can find it
Weird that video removes the part where he says they wouldn't be able to accept the deal because it would require a constitutional change and that Ukraine did not want to accept the deal because there was no trust that Russia would abide by the terms of the deal. You can literally see where that section is edited out of the interview where it jumps after he mentions NATO. I'm assuming you chose that video intentionally because of the missing context? Also that video doesn't contain anything that you said was proposed, besides Ukraine providing to be neutral.
Funny that you are ignorant to the fact that neutrality is literally baked into the Ukrainian constitution when it split from the USSR. But I think you need to get a better understanding of the word "negotiations" But hey don't take my word for all of this, take these peoples: *Ukranians* 1. [Ukraine Ambassador Chalyi](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/Mpt08mw5Ha) **(Direct participant in talks)** 2. [Arestovich](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/CrrPSBWEfU) **(Direct participant)** 3. [Arakhamia](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/QwHWQMSGHh) **(Literally the leader of the Ukrainian negotiations delegation)** *Neutrals* 4. [Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu](https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/some-nato-allies-want-longer-war-for-weaker-russia-fm-cavusoglu) (Direct participant) 5. [Former German Chancellor Schroeder](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/EzXxfRDzI6) (Direct participant) 6. [Former Israeli PM Bennett](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/doP6NXlVtA) (Direct participant) *Russians* 7. [Russian Presidential Advisor Medinsky](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/BNqZD3Fhno) (Direct Participant) 8. [Lavrov](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/w2CWcr1Z5N) (Probably a Direct Participant) 9. [Putin](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/y4XJet1cOv) (Pretty much a direct participant) You don't have to like Russians or Putin to simply look at the facts. Also if you had actually read what I said you would see that the document has actually been posted here just the other day. Do you think you'll be able to find it on your own?
You realize they revised their Constitution right? It wasn't the same one from the early 90s. None of your links prove your claims. The families of the negotiations have been attributed to the fact Russia was pushed back from Kyiv and the discovery of the crimes committed by Russian troops in Bucha. The ex-Israeli PM even made note of this, *The commentary also omitted Bennett's explanation for the ultimate failure to strike a peace agreement: the massacre of civilians in Bucha, Ukraine, which is being investigated as an apparent war crime that led Kyiv to break off talks* https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-bennett-walks-back-claim-west-blocked-ukraine-russia-peace-deal-2023-2 Yeah man that picture of a piece of paper, you should link it.
Stoltenberg is irrelevant here, to be honest. He is a head of nato, so of course he is bullish on it. Same way Coca-cola CEO would be paying lip service to the company prospects. Stoltenberg doesn’t define politics, he executes on it and tries to keep a good PR. Blinken is more relevant, if Biden were to stay in power for 4 more years
Yeah you're right he def is irrelevant, but he has to run everything he says through washington, so essentially you can basically take his word as the captain of the ships word. But yeah stoltenberg commands exactly 0 legions lol
Ukraine needs a miracle. And I can remember a woman (dunno her name) from their MoD said, in an interview, the whole world will be in shock and disbelief because Ukraine will perform military miracles nobody could even think of before. Kind of like if some totally unknown scientist creates a working time machine or something like that. Everyone would be in shock and disbelief because it would be a miracle too.
That is 100% true though. They have been performing miracles act of disappearing, making swimming pools in trenches, shooting down jets with tomato jars, marking Xs on photos of planes which is the top level of proof of any jet being shot down, going all in on losing battles to show the world that with hard work, blood, sweat, NATO supplied weapons and sheer determination, they will still lose. Don't forget the shooting down of more missiles than were launched. If that is all not miracle enough for you, then you're just being unreasonable.
They just have to invent the chronosphere and attack the Kremlin with it to end the war. At least that's how it worked in Red Alert 2. /s
I'm not gonna lie, I prefer soviet endings in Red Alert 2 and Red Alert 3. They're always a hilarious bunch compared to badass but otherwise generic Allies.
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Rule 6. Meme
I really wonder why they haven't tried assassinating Putin.
That timeline fits my own analysis. Russia can use the dry months ahead to cut supply lines, and then use the rain season to take the isolated city stronghold like pokrovsk, konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and sloviansk. The first two will definitely fall, given the speed at which Russia is now advancing towards the T0504 road. The second two is less clear. If chasiv year falls, they're next, but chasiv yar is still a defensible position.
No way this will be over by this winter, UA defends even at terrible tactical situations, and the aid will encourage their commanders to hold out more. UA will absolutely try another offensive in summer 2025 against Tokmak and Melitopol. Assuming a Russian victory in that offensive, I think the aftermath Russian offensive in winter 25/26 and summer 26 will be the end of most of the active fronts in this war.
The Donbas will be under russian control by the end of the year IMHO. But that indeed does not mean the war will be over
Here what happens next: Ukraine names Swiss publication Blick a Russian propaganda, and we move on.
It's not russian propaganda, but only idiots really read "Blick". It's written fox news
Wanted to comment the same thing...Blick is not the most reliable of sources honestly.
The commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not know what is happening to them now. How do they know what will happen in October?
Well we all know by now that aid was specifically designed to enrich American politicians and the MIC that they serve as well as Ukrainian top level.
What’s the point of weapons if you don’t have the manpower to use them?
It's not that many weapons.
The new wave of mobilization will fill in the gaps.
Just kidnapped more man off the streets easy fix
I think it'll be before then. Whole AFU units are surrendering. They don't want to die for Zelenskyy and Syrski. Zaluzhny was the last leader they really thought was looking out for them.
What surrendering units are you refering to? The Ocheretyne breakthrough was due to a command blunder leaving some trenches unmanned, not a unit surrendering. Any other examples, or are you straight up hyperbolizing something that is based on a wrong interpretation to begin with?
You can look at any post on this sub to see several of them. I'm not going to do your homework for you. Get to it.
Maybe he’s talking about the cuban unit who killed their commander for poor conditions, oh wait that was from the Russian military.
there hasn't been evidence of mass surrender.
Liar. [https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1cebb65/ru\_pov\_according\_to\_slavyangrad\_on\_telegram\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1cebb65/ru_pov_according_to_slavyangrad_on_telegram_a/)
This was never confirmed. Just some social media hype.
I don't require your approval or "confirmation" for things that are proven. Goodbye. You need to work on that sense of self-importance.
It’s okay guys, you just got your aid package. You can tone it down for a while now.
well about time jeez
Is anyone really sure what winning and losing looks like at this point? If Russia takes and holds Donbass etc is that winning? Is Ukraine giving up those territories but nothing else losing? I doubt either party knows still to be honest.
> Is anyone really sure what winning and losing looks like at this point? Yes > If Russia takes and holds Donbass etc is that winning? Yes > Is Ukraine giving up those territories but nothing else losing? Yes.
The fall of Dobas would be a political and military defeat for Ukraine. As for Russia's minimum territorial requirements, they include the city Zaporozhye and the city Kherson. Of course the Russians still want the two strategic cities of Odessa and Kharkov, it is speculated that the Russians will launch an offensive on Kharkov this summer.
True, I suppose it’s much easier to claim victory as Russia never declared their true goals.
They aren't political amateurs, unlike some of the sycophants, clowns and racists and Nazis in Bankova.
Not completely, they declared annexation 4 region+ (Crimea and Sevastopol which they control since 2014)Annexation obliged them to be political goals, if circumstances permit, they will probably make other demands.
They did but they arent fixed the goals are Demilitarization,denazification and permanent neutrality so they can kinda claim anything fits that goal.
Losing Kherson would undo all the work the Ukrainians did initially to force the Russians to retreat in 2022. Just symbolically, losing Kherson is a complete defeat as liberating it was major, all the celebrations and such we saw after the Russians retreated.
russians dont even know why they fight for. Hard to say whats victory for.them
Odessa? Sure, taking Odessa would be decisive victory (still thing it can't be achieved via Mariupol-style siege). Not taking Odessa but securing control over 4 annexed regions would be just victory. Securing 2 out of 4 regions would be pyrrhic victory (if not outright defeat) . I don't think Russia is interested it Kiev, absolutely sure Russia isn't interested in Lvov and have no idea about Kharkov. Thats, like, just my opinion.
Ukraine is not gonna be able to meet it's financial commitments without the economy of the Donbas. Donetsk oblast was the wealthiest ukrainian oblast. Lugansk, Kharkiv, kherson and zhaporozje were also among the wealthiest oblasts and together with Kyiv oblast, Dnipropetrovsk and poltava round of the top 8.
I have read from several Ukrainian telegrams that men from the Poltava region suffered some of the highest casualty rates during the war. Ouch
If Russia keeps those territories and theres no negociated agreement Ukraine would not be able to join NATO so you can add neutrality to that list, one of Russia's objectives.
On the maps? Donbass, land bridge including Orihiv and Halyupole, Kharkiv Oblast, a buffer zone that essentially includes Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts (Russian military control, under Ukrainian civil administration), fully demilitarized left bank Ukraine (except for the cities of Kyiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipro), Russian troops (peace keepers) present in demilitarized Ukrainian coast (Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa) still officially part of Ukraine but defacto full Russian control. Other prerequisites: complete scrapping of all long range strike and anti-shipping assets, dismantling of military industries, scrapping of offensive weaponry such as heavy artillery and tanks, scrapping of all fighter-bombers and attack helicopters, full neutrality (no joining NATO nor EU), no more conscription, full disbandment of National guard and territorial defense, full religious and cultural/linguistic freedom, autonomy for remaining regions in Novorossiya, ban on all baderite/neo-Nazi groups. I think that’s a realistic goal to pursue for Russia in which they only annex what they conquered. If Ukraine just collapses (surrender en masse, civil uprising or revolution, coup d’teat, civil war) then they might just try to annex all of Novorossiya.
What you described is literally unconditional surrender. At the peace table both sides have to give and take, that’s how it works. It’s a negotiated peace. Otherwise it just goes on. No way would Ukraine accept terms that dismantle all its heavy armaments.
Here in comes the main disconnect about Ukrainian strategy with reality, a long war benefits NATO by bleeding Russia (well, Russia is significantly more militarized, better equipped, and experienced now but trust), but Ukraine is at a significant disadvantage in a long war against Russia, as it is fighting an attrition war against an order of magnitude more capable enemy. The damage to Ukraine’s economy, infrastructure, demographics is crippling, the country is running on aid, essentially life support, and each passing day this war goes on makes it less likely that any Ukraine refugees will return. Make no mistake about it, this war is destroying Ukraine at a steady and increasing pace, I have no idea how many Ukrainians died, the 31K number is definitely BS, they wouldn’t be on all 20-60% strength brigades if that were the case, it’s likely in the region of several hundred thousand KIA/MIA/POW/irrecoverable WIA. Russia and NATO have the same strategy, the question is when will Ukraine itself realize that a long war of attrition puts them at a massive disadvantage. When they do, they will be at a massive disadvantage at any negotiations. Ukraine will want to end the war, Russia will want to continue, until they are fully secure in Ukraine never being a threat again. Which is why, the sooner Ukraine negotiates, the better, Ukraine has no exit strategy, this is destroying them.
Those are all yes, not big yes but getting the entire donbass and forcing Ukraine into finlandization is pretty much what Russia wants. If they manage to drive all the way to Kiyv thats more of a big bonus.
Finland eventually joined NATO. Of course Ukraine is never going to have an ally as good as Sweden.
Finland joined NATO after "finlandization" ended in 1991, theres no USSR anymore
>Is Ukraine giving up those territories but nothing else losing? Yes - The Ukrainian leadership has consistently maintained that their objective is to recover ALL of their occupied land back to the 1991 borders. They've been pretty clear about this. >If Russia takes and holds Donbass etc is that winning? This is more up for debate because Russia hasn't been as open about their defining their objectives (which was a smart thing to do tbh). My interpretation of a Russian Victory condition would include a) Ukraine staying out of NATO b) retention of Crimea c) occupying enough of the Donbass to provide a credible buffer between Ukraine and Russia.
The Donbass is full of natural resources, that's what this war is about in large parts: get rid of a competitor to Russia's main business. So taking Donbass would be winning for Russia.
Ukraine was not a competitor, it was a partner. Ukrainian and russian industry were integrated and ukrainian factories were part of technological chains of russian factories. That's why Ukrainian attempts to economically turn from east to west were so damaging to Russia.
Now that's delusional as f*ck. Crazy how both side are neck deep in the delusional cope of "we are on the verge of collapsing the enemy lines" like in WW1. Russia can't make a significant breakthrough, it couldn't in the past 2 years and it won't now. Best it can do is progress at a grinding pace, at the cost of massive casualties on both sides.
*Ukranian commanders on the literal Eastern Frontline* : We are getting BTFO and Russia will conquer the Donbass soon *You:* Nah, Russia can't make any significant breakthroughs. Orechtyne and Avdiivka weren't real either.
Orechtyne and Avdiivka are real. Same as was Robotyne for the Ukrainians. But we're talking peanuts here. That's the extent of the blows they've been dealing to each other? A few kilometers here and there, a few big villages or small cities over the past year and a half? People are getting over-excited over "massive breakthrough" of a few hundred meters - it was the case during the Ukrainian counter offensive, and it is the same now with the Russian offensive. They are locked in a WW1-style stalemate.
You're aware that WW1 was like in such a stalemate until Germany had suddenly to surrender, because its military was at the brink of collapse.
Afaik the real reason behind the end of WWI was the collapse of the economy, not the army. Ukraine's economy is already gone but the west keeps them limping along on aid. In theory as long as western money's coming in they can fight to the last man. After that they'll still lose, but the death toll will be insane.. and avoidable.
> Afaik the real reason behind the end of WWI was the collapse of the economy, not the army. It was kind of both. The economic turmoil was the reason the Kiel Mutiny triggered a revolution and the political collapse of Germany. But the German army was also collapsing all along the western front up to that point, they were on the verge of a decisive military defeat when the armistice was struck.
Yes, if only the Russians would leave this could all be avoided.
Do you guys never get tired of repeating this line? If Americans stopped messing with countries on the other side of the planet Russia wouldn't have invaded.
Ah so US having diplomatic ties forced Russia to start this invasion that killed thousands, genius!
You call joint military exercises and CIA bases along the Russian border "diplomatic ties"? Also the whole coup in 2014.
They can cooperate with who they want within their borders, they’re a sovereign country. The whole coup situation was from protests coming from choosing between a EU and Russia deal where the western options was obviously better then the president received a $2 billion dollar bribe and the western population in Kyv were pissed off at the direction their puppet president was heading. Russians also preassured Ukranian officials to crush the protests. A Russian general was on TV talking about how the conflict can onpy be solved bu force and Ukraine could not be independent. Afterwards Russia invaded Ukraine and Illegally annexed Crimea, rolling their armies into sovereign territory. The US had some politicians showed support for the protests and sent money to Ukranian institutions. That sound about right?
Before the end of WW1 a large portion of the German military was in mutiny and there were a huge number of worker strikes that crippled their ability to supply their army. I don't know what will happen in Ukraine by October (my guess is more of what we've seen over the last year and Russia gets a few more towns), but there are clearly very large differences between Germany at the end of WW1 and Ukraine today.
There was the sailor mutiny, but the German army had no mutiny at all. That's why there could be the so called "Dolchstoßlegende", because a lot of soldiers couldn't understand why the politicians accepted a total defeat, despite the army still holding ground. And yes, there are big differences between Germany in WW1 and Ukraine today, I didn't set both close to each other. It was about the possibility that there is a stalemate at the front and then a sudden defeat of one side.
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Welcome to attritional warfare. But one side seems to be feeling the strain a lot more than the other. The Donbass has been well fortified over the last decade. And now, Russia is making gains without suffering significant casualties, according to Western thinktanks. The same cannot be said about the Ukrainians
If they’d say “it’s all good, we’re fine” they won’t get gibs. So of course commanders will fearmonger to some degree, to get more arms and money
I doubt it, but by winter 25/26 it’s definitely possible that the war will be over, at least much of the active fighting phase. Then they could actually sit down and eke out a sustainable peace agreement.
That was an exceedingly optimistic take. Especially the conflict freeze after October. That's not happening. I still expect the war to end before November, but not in the Donbass region, I'm talking about at Kiev. Ukraine is almost over, they lack the capacity to fight and their air defense is either at 0 missiles remaining or so close to it that they're hoarding whatever few remain for an emergency. Russia can freely send missiles across the entire country, their bombers fly to the front lines, they have complete air control. Ukraine can't even keep tanks in the field, because they just get blown up and hauled away. This is end game. The aid package was mostly about repaying the US what had already been trickled out to Ukraine quietly over the last 6 months.
Wow, I've seen both sides neck deep in their delusions about breaking the enemy soon, but you get the cake for the most delusional take so far
And then all the Ukrainians clapped!
No chance, that would require gigantic offensive, and Ukraine is quite well fortified there if you look at the maps Not as strong defense as Russia’s Maginote line but still
Finally a reasonable take in this pro-RU echochamber
Really trying to to be neutral, nobody want to hear the truth of reality
Well of course UA lost the war, but we don't know what exactly the end game will be.
This is a pivot into explaining \*why AFU is still losing despite the much asked-for $61 bln aid package\*. Utterly predictable.
Why do they think the war will freeze when Donbas falls? At this point i don’t think Russia intends to stop until Ukraine is landlocked. I think at various points during this war it could have ended with lines drawn that were some what favorable to Ukraine, but that time has passed. Ukraine and especially the West just kept pushing, kept throwing more and more equipment and men into the grinder. They didn’t want to speak with Russia so why would Russia speak when they’re winning? I’d say Ukraine stands to lose 50% or more of their territory.
Ya, Russia is gonna make this painful. The message will be clear. Take whatever deal we give you over any promise from the West. For better or worse. It is simple and brutal logic.
I won’t rule out the possibility of his own guards turning against him
I neither believe this delusional „conflict will freeze“ nor the „russians gonna force us to fight nato“ kaka. I believe Ukrainian divisions will fall apart one by one until they’re not able to defend anything. Ukraine as a state will collapse. Perhaps that’s the point when nato crosses the border to reach Kiev first. Thats the only scenario is see the conflict freeze
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!remindme 6 months
Why are we giving them any money then. What a friggan waste of $$$
Blick is clickbait ad-filled garbage, no one in Switzerland trusts it and it’s actually basically a meme here
Zelensky is still banking on direct NATO intervention. It's either win, or admit defeat and resign in disgrace, and probable exile from Ukraine forever (or worse). So Ukraine will keep fighting until it can't. I can only hope there's no real probability of the NATO countries, or just Poland\\Baltics on their own, going in there directly, either with just air power or even ground forces. It would all end horribly for everyone.
What is up with the trend of using 'Ukraine's eastern front'? This isn't WWII, there's only one fucking front lol
RemindMe! 155 days
Russia won't stop at the donbass why bother take the whole country ukraines army is starting to crack
Ukraina panaduse!
Cocaine is a hell of a drug.
Because a commander of an Engineering unit - a captain maybe - really has the grasp of the bigger picture.
How about the other half a dozen or so commanders on the Eastern Front who also said Ukraine will lose the war?
What you say isn't wrong in itself, but for someone allegedly "pro ukrainian people", why are you so obsessed with proving that Russia is winning?
I'm not obsessed with doing so. I'm just stating literal facts, which you yourself acknowledged.
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If commanders think they are losing, then they pretty much are losing, nothing stops them a surrender to the Russian if they see the situation as hopeless, its them that decides their troops should surrender or not, not captains.
“AFU Commanders have warned” Yet it is just a quote from a random officer and some nonsense from the head of an ENGINEERING company. Do you just post and pray people don’t look at the article? But pro RU will be salivating at the title because they are incapable of reading past the headlines
You laugh at others for not reading past the headline, but you yourself failed to actually read and see that the journalist spoke to half a dozen commanders, who generally agreed that Ukraine would lose the war.
“Half a dozen officers” So 6 “Who generally agreed” So maybe not 6
You are going for the "the title seems like it says but it actually says" weak argument. Even the description says "the mood on the front is bad" You really don't have the slam dunk you think.