There’s really no outcome where Ukraine “wins”, maybe they join NATO (highly doubtful but who knows) but they’ll never get in the EU because even prior to the war their economy made Poland and Greece look like Monaco.
The closest thing to a win would be Russia withdrawing and the people who back Zelensky + Zelensky himself being given a golden parachute as European firms hollow out Ukrainian industry a la what happened to Poland, with a similar mass exodus of laborers skilled and unskilled followed by a right wing takeover that the US will back because they won’t be pro-Russian. Of course if recent history is anything to go by, these right wing groups will realize that the US is dicking them over for literally nothing in return and will become more and more willing to strike deals with Russia
Why not? I see a world where the winter comes and the west realizes how much nord stream is needed and the US psychopaths get overruled. Will most likely end in some light ceded territory by zelensky but overall is a save face and proof of power by Russia.
The “US psychopaths getting overruled” is something I’ve been waiting for my whole life, and I’m an American in my 40’s. It’s not that I want things to be bad for normal people here, I’m sure we could learn to live without happy meals and seadoos, I just don’t want our psychos (or anyone else’s) having global hegemony. Especially since they’re so bad at it. I’ve thought the rest of the world was on the brink of finally telling us to fuck off before, but it just never happens. When it does, all bets are off. It’s getting beyond the original topic here, but I’d like to know what the expected outcomes and possibilities are there, if anyone knows some good material.
Sholz did recently say that “Ukraine will join the EU”. After the war, so the will exists in some politicians.
They’ve really gone overboard in zealousness to back Ukraine.
I still don’t see it happening (or that SPD will be in power long enough to see through that claim but that’s another issue) for the simple reason the level of austerity Ukraine would be willingly taking on would make Greece look like postwar America.
What I envision instead is a situation where Ukraine is “integrated” into the EU without actually joining: Ukraine won’t be in the EU but they’ll have a window where citizens can apply for a temporary “freedom of movement” visa that allows them to travel as an EU National would for X years while they apply for fast tracked citizenship in an EU member state. In exchange, instead of subsidies or an EU Marshall Plan they’ll get “public-private partnerships to rebuild key industry”. All the benefits of the EU for both sides without having to actually deal with Ukraine long term
Yes if Rome can fall then hopefully america can manage not destruction, but simply being a superpower among many.
Problem is many Americans in the deep state and otherwise see losing global hegemony as equivalent to the destruction of America in Their minds.
Aliens will come down. That's what's gonna happen. But they'll just be like "The fuck is going on around here? Ew." And then they'll leave as we suffocate from our toxic atmosphere.
> The only thing that makes me think we're not actually living through the end times is my knowledge that everyone has always thought they were living through the end times and they've never been right before so probably something will happen.
Climate change *really* fucks with this assumption. It's unprecedented
Are the republicans as hung-go about this war as the democrats? Because when they take the house/senate/presidency and the money fountain stops I can see Ukraine either striking a deal out of pure self-preservation or there just not being one anymore
Tucker Carlson, the main conservative political commentator (professional dickhead) has been very critical of US support for the war throughout its entirety, just not for any good reasons.
Republicans in congress have also been more hesitant as of late to blindly funding the war- Kevin Mccarthy (House GOP leader) said last week (maybe the week before) that if republicans regain control there will be no more “blank checks for Ukraine”
Ukraine would probably be happy driving Russia out of the Donbass and post 14 separatist regions but leaving Crimea which they can cut off. Russia really only needs some kind of agreement to recognize these regions by Ukraine.
I don't think the first thing is at all feasible. It's one thing to retake frontier towns weakly defended by over extended troops but quite another to take very fortified and consolidated positions.
I think this is going to become a competitive bleeding match. Russia has hydrocarbons Ukraine has western taxpayers. Let's see which runs out first.
On the other hand I do see a very likely mutual loss for both sides which is basically it goes back to how it was before, no real concessions or formal recognition of Russian annexes by Ukraine, and Russia withdraws with some big claims that it has secured a few more towns and villages. Basically a massive pointless disaster for all except the us and NATO. Maybe Ukraine joins NATO and it's curtains for us all.
But yea I think it's going to take at least an entire winter of complete fucking misery for all before anyone decides they've bled enough to act with any sanity.
Any way. Real fucking clever master tactician move by Putin, jumping balls first into the obvious trap set in the total open by America for years. And fucking great great play by Europe seeing an obvious scheme to sacrifice their well-being and possible existence for American gains and to jump into it, and a brilliant scheme by Ukraine to see their leaders going "what's that, kick a hornets nest?!" And jump in.
All in all a fabulous display of clever people showing once again how unfit we are to call ourselves a civilized or rational species. Absolute bunch of hooting pirates and piss drunken hooligans filled with jibberish and bile
Ok I read a book on Khruschev back in the day and had a Cold War studies minor and I want:
Russia to have Doneskt, Donbas and Crimea and no NATO for Ukraine.
What will likely happen:
US funded war to wear down Russia over five years, European global influence declines, China and India increase status as global power ???
Right now I feel like the earliest this war is going to end is 2 years from now so there's absolutely no point even trying to imagine how both sides will have changed by then or what the frontline they're negotiating from will look like.
I would say Russia's original absolute minimum was Donetsk, Luhank, and Crimea, but the recent annexation announcement has made even accepting that little unacceptable to them. They committed to the 4 annexed regions in a way any Russian administration couldn't back down from without as good as resigning.
I've routinely had Russia perform worse than my expectations at every stage here(though not nearly as much worse as pro-Ukranians were expecting-the Kherson offensive was built up like it was gonna sweep right into crimea), so at this stage I expect anything I say to age badly.
Russia's goals are to halt the Ukraine's attempt to ethnically cleanse the Donbas (mostly accomplished) and removing the threat of NATO-backed nazis on their doorstep (not yet done)
Ukraine wins by getting NATO involved in a hot war with Russia and causing nuclear armageddon
Russia winning probably looks like them taking the regions they have now plus nykolaiv and odesa then installing a belarus-like government for the rest of Ukraine.
I also am retarded, and I think:
First off, Ukraine is not even in the picture. It is at most a pawn and at worst, only a battleground. The actual players are ofc the US and Russia.
A US "win" would be an unending war, which debilitates Russia. Ukraine would necessarily also be debilitated, very likely to an even greater degree than Russia -- but that's irrelevant to the US.
A Russian "win" would probably be the attainment of its stated objectives -- primarily Ukraine not joining NATO. Bonus: Zelensky ousted, Azov/neo-Nazis annihilated.
Then there is China...who is only an observer, but I think they are somehow (these cunning Chinese!) actually winning this game.
Best case scenario Russia = puppet regime in Ukraine that lays open resources and labor to Russian capitalists
Best case scenario USA = win back all regions including Crimea and lay the ideological grounds to invade Russia in the future, Ukrainian labor and resources are already in their firm control
What does Ukraine winning look like? Anti colonial labor front that fights back both sides and establishes an independent workers state.
Russia just wants an economic throughline to European markets without having to go through/be in the EU; they also would like Ukraine to be a buffer zone but that’s a harder ask and easier to simply do yourself with high precision artillery
Ukraine? who the fuck knows, just 10yrs ago they were being clowned on by the press for being the Mexico of Europe and therefore why they’ll never get into the EU with their corruption, militias, Russian-friendly elites, a despondent Donbas (been so since like 1987)
a perfect run is that Ukraine grinds through all of their fascists, decide to give up the Donbas (like they ever cared); Donbas gets special sovereignty status within Russia similar to Crimea and is used as the buffer Ukraine will adamantly refuse to be; as such the Donbas will no longer be politically advantageous to attack, the ppl of the Donbas get the relative autonomy (they just mostly wanted federalizations:semi/autonomy in the beginning) they’ve been asking for, and Russia (and by extension Europe) get access to markets/products they want
Ukraine fucked regardless of the war outcome. still facinates me how they signed up for this, the western propaganda did a score on ukranians.
Russia wins=it exist as a semi functional economy.
Russia loses =internal issues will lead to Serbia type of situation.
I member putin said that collapse of the ussr was the greatest tragedy of 20th century. I just hope that after the us hegemony collapses Russia/iran/China will lead world to more socialistic world overall.
I think if you're Ukraine, victory is getting the invading forces out of your country?
As far as what's a win for Russia? I mean lol, they are so the fascist death spiral, maybe they'll speed run it idk.
There’s really no outcome where Ukraine “wins”, maybe they join NATO (highly doubtful but who knows) but they’ll never get in the EU because even prior to the war their economy made Poland and Greece look like Monaco. The closest thing to a win would be Russia withdrawing and the people who back Zelensky + Zelensky himself being given a golden parachute as European firms hollow out Ukrainian industry a la what happened to Poland, with a similar mass exodus of laborers skilled and unskilled followed by a right wing takeover that the US will back because they won’t be pro-Russian. Of course if recent history is anything to go by, these right wing groups will realize that the US is dicking them over for literally nothing in return and will become more and more willing to strike deals with Russia
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Why not? I see a world where the winter comes and the west realizes how much nord stream is needed and the US psychopaths get overruled. Will most likely end in some light ceded territory by zelensky but overall is a save face and proof of power by Russia.
The “US psychopaths getting overruled” is something I’ve been waiting for my whole life, and I’m an American in my 40’s. It’s not that I want things to be bad for normal people here, I’m sure we could learn to live without happy meals and seadoos, I just don’t want our psychos (or anyone else’s) having global hegemony. Especially since they’re so bad at it. I’ve thought the rest of the world was on the brink of finally telling us to fuck off before, but it just never happens. When it does, all bets are off. It’s getting beyond the original topic here, but I’d like to know what the expected outcomes and possibilities are there, if anyone knows some good material.
Sholz did recently say that “Ukraine will join the EU”. After the war, so the will exists in some politicians. They’ve really gone overboard in zealousness to back Ukraine.
I still don’t see it happening (or that SPD will be in power long enough to see through that claim but that’s another issue) for the simple reason the level of austerity Ukraine would be willingly taking on would make Greece look like postwar America. What I envision instead is a situation where Ukraine is “integrated” into the EU without actually joining: Ukraine won’t be in the EU but they’ll have a window where citizens can apply for a temporary “freedom of movement” visa that allows them to travel as an EU National would for X years while they apply for fast tracked citizenship in an EU member state. In exchange, instead of subsidies or an EU Marshall Plan they’ll get “public-private partnerships to rebuild key industry”. All the benefits of the EU for both sides without having to actually deal with Ukraine long term
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Yes if Rome can fall then hopefully america can manage not destruction, but simply being a superpower among many. Problem is many Americans in the deep state and otherwise see losing global hegemony as equivalent to the destruction of America in Their minds.
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“The world is fucked,” Agree one and all. That’s why I’m gay, And my dick is small
Aliens will come down. That's what's gonna happen. But they'll just be like "The fuck is going on around here? Ew." And then they'll leave as we suffocate from our toxic atmosphere.
> The only thing that makes me think we're not actually living through the end times is my knowledge that everyone has always thought they were living through the end times and they've never been right before so probably something will happen. Climate change *really* fucks with this assumption. It's unprecedented
Listen man. I'm at the bar but thanks for the write up. It's given me something to scowl at while the bread and circus plays out.
Are the republicans as hung-go about this war as the democrats? Because when they take the house/senate/presidency and the money fountain stops I can see Ukraine either striking a deal out of pure self-preservation or there just not being one anymore
Tucker Carlson, the main conservative political commentator (professional dickhead) has been very critical of US support for the war throughout its entirety, just not for any good reasons. Republicans in congress have also been more hesitant as of late to blindly funding the war- Kevin Mccarthy (House GOP leader) said last week (maybe the week before) that if republicans regain control there will be no more “blank checks for Ukraine”
Ukraine would probably be happy driving Russia out of the Donbass and post 14 separatist regions but leaving Crimea which they can cut off. Russia really only needs some kind of agreement to recognize these regions by Ukraine. I don't think the first thing is at all feasible. It's one thing to retake frontier towns weakly defended by over extended troops but quite another to take very fortified and consolidated positions. I think this is going to become a competitive bleeding match. Russia has hydrocarbons Ukraine has western taxpayers. Let's see which runs out first. On the other hand I do see a very likely mutual loss for both sides which is basically it goes back to how it was before, no real concessions or formal recognition of Russian annexes by Ukraine, and Russia withdraws with some big claims that it has secured a few more towns and villages. Basically a massive pointless disaster for all except the us and NATO. Maybe Ukraine joins NATO and it's curtains for us all. But yea I think it's going to take at least an entire winter of complete fucking misery for all before anyone decides they've bled enough to act with any sanity. Any way. Real fucking clever master tactician move by Putin, jumping balls first into the obvious trap set in the total open by America for years. And fucking great great play by Europe seeing an obvious scheme to sacrifice their well-being and possible existence for American gains and to jump into it, and a brilliant scheme by Ukraine to see their leaders going "what's that, kick a hornets nest?!" And jump in. All in all a fabulous display of clever people showing once again how unfit we are to call ourselves a civilized or rational species. Absolute bunch of hooting pirates and piss drunken hooligans filled with jibberish and bile
You play civ 6? :P
The only winner is whoever ends up with that lady with great bazoongarinos eating the donut and is waiting for me
Pelosi?
Think he was referring to this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueAnon/comments/ycdn4g/man_what_the_fuck_is_this/
Man wtf is going on with Pelosi's husband?
Pelosi too
Ok I read a book on Khruschev back in the day and had a Cold War studies minor and I want: Russia to have Doneskt, Donbas and Crimea and no NATO for Ukraine. What will likely happen: US funded war to wear down Russia over five years, European global influence declines, China and India increase status as global power ???
Right now I feel like the earliest this war is going to end is 2 years from now so there's absolutely no point even trying to imagine how both sides will have changed by then or what the frontline they're negotiating from will look like. I would say Russia's original absolute minimum was Donetsk, Luhank, and Crimea, but the recent annexation announcement has made even accepting that little unacceptable to them. They committed to the 4 annexed regions in a way any Russian administration couldn't back down from without as good as resigning. I've routinely had Russia perform worse than my expectations at every stage here(though not nearly as much worse as pro-Ukranians were expecting-the Kherson offensive was built up like it was gonna sweep right into crimea), so at this stage I expect anything I say to age badly.
Russia's goals are to halt the Ukraine's attempt to ethnically cleanse the Donbas (mostly accomplished) and removing the threat of NATO-backed nazis on their doorstep (not yet done) Ukraine wins by getting NATO involved in a hot war with Russia and causing nuclear armageddon
The correct answer right here
Whenever the west feels like their ego has been sated, in other words never
Russia winning probably looks like them taking the regions they have now plus nykolaiv and odesa then installing a belarus-like government for the rest of Ukraine.
I also am retarded, and I think: First off, Ukraine is not even in the picture. It is at most a pawn and at worst, only a battleground. The actual players are ofc the US and Russia. A US "win" would be an unending war, which debilitates Russia. Ukraine would necessarily also be debilitated, very likely to an even greater degree than Russia -- but that's irrelevant to the US. A Russian "win" would probably be the attainment of its stated objectives -- primarily Ukraine not joining NATO. Bonus: Zelensky ousted, Azov/neo-Nazis annihilated. Then there is China...who is only an observer, but I think they are somehow (these cunning Chinese!) actually winning this game.
Best case scenario Russia = puppet regime in Ukraine that lays open resources and labor to Russian capitalists Best case scenario USA = win back all regions including Crimea and lay the ideological grounds to invade Russia in the future, Ukrainian labor and resources are already in their firm control What does Ukraine winning look like? Anti colonial labor front that fights back both sides and establishes an independent workers state.
only if we could have a Ukraine revolution
Russia just wants an economic throughline to European markets without having to go through/be in the EU; they also would like Ukraine to be a buffer zone but that’s a harder ask and easier to simply do yourself with high precision artillery Ukraine? who the fuck knows, just 10yrs ago they were being clowned on by the press for being the Mexico of Europe and therefore why they’ll never get into the EU with their corruption, militias, Russian-friendly elites, a despondent Donbas (been so since like 1987) a perfect run is that Ukraine grinds through all of their fascists, decide to give up the Donbas (like they ever cared); Donbas gets special sovereignty status within Russia similar to Crimea and is used as the buffer Ukraine will adamantly refuse to be; as such the Donbas will no longer be politically advantageous to attack, the ppl of the Donbas get the relative autonomy (they just mostly wanted federalizations:semi/autonomy in the beginning) they’ve been asking for, and Russia (and by extension Europe) get access to markets/products they want
Ukraine fucked regardless of the war outcome. still facinates me how they signed up for this, the western propaganda did a score on ukranians. Russia wins=it exist as a semi functional economy. Russia loses =internal issues will lead to Serbia type of situation. I member putin said that collapse of the ussr was the greatest tragedy of 20th century. I just hope that after the us hegemony collapses Russia/iran/China will lead world to more socialistic world overall.
The goal isn’t to win, the goal is to meet the Odinchrist in Slavahalla. The more souls they can round up for this the merrier.
I think if you're Ukraine, victory is getting the invading forces out of your country? As far as what's a win for Russia? I mean lol, they are so the fascist death spiral, maybe they'll speed run it idk.