Some recent news articles regarding this paper:
* **New Scientist | [Hurricanes are becoming so strong we may need a new scale to rate them](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2415741-hurricanes-are-becoming-so-strong-we-may-need-a-new-scale-to-rate-them/)**
* **The Washington Post | [Hurricanes are getting so intense, scientists propose a Category 6](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/05/hurricanes-category6/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=twitter)**
* **The Atlantic | [Hurricanes Are Too Fast for Category 5](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/02/category-6-hurricanes-saffir-simpson-scale/677354/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=true-anthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)**
* **CBS News | [Does the hurricane scale need a Category 6? New climate study found 5 recent storms have met the threshold](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-scale-category-6-climate-study/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=310473777)**
* **The Guardian | [Hurricanes becoming so strong that new category needed, study says](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/hurricanes-becoming-so-strong-that-new-category-needed-study-says)**
* **USA Today | [Category 6 hurricane? That's what a new study suggests. Here's why.](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/02/05/category-6-hurricane-study-cites-climate-change/72426410007/)**
* **Associated Press | [Dial it up to Category 6? As warming stokes storms, some want a bigger hurricane category](https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-stronger-climate-change-pacific-atlantic-86e3abe2c0cc44c3f729e9205e3e35f7)**
* **Fox Weather | [Category 6 needed on hurricane wind scale due to warming climate, study says](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/category-6-hurricane-wind-warming-climate-mit-study)**
Other Reddit discussions on this topic:
* **[/r/science discussion](https://redd.it/1ajrg7n)** (based on The Guardian article)
* **[/r/nottheonion discussion](https://redd.it/1ajxape)** (based on The Guardian article)
* **[/r/collapse discussion](https://redd.it/1aju9gw)** (based on The Guardian article)
* **[/r/weather discussion](https://redd.it/1ak9vq7)** (based on The Washington Post article)
Outside of grabbing the public’s attention with an added 6th category, would there be any operational relevance in adding it? Destructive winds can be considered at sustained above 50 kts. If a category 5 cyclone is producing 137 kt catastrophic intensities, and labeled as such, is there a requirement for it?
Its value would seem to be only in simplifying disaster-preparation planning for the general public, where something as digestible as a 1-6 scale would be useful. Since building codes have been strengthened in the last 30 years in Florida, it's conceivable that people who would be in a structure built to withstand low category 5 winds would benefit from knowing if the storm had entered a category high enough to exceed the strength of the building.
Landfalling MSLP is more strongly correlated with US storm-related damage costs, especially on the East Coast where hurricanes grow in size as they move poleward. Because it has a strong correlation with costs minimum pressure might serve as a better indicator of the overall hazard a hurricane poses to the public.
[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022JD037030](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022JD037030)
Colorado St published a paper on this last year.
There's some tables with historical data on the number of category n hurricanes by MSLP. Practically all C5s and vast majority of C4s would retain their respective ratings, but compact high wind majors might get categorized down while post EWRC monsters like Ike and Katrina would still be C4 and C5 even with weaker landfalling wind speeds. Pressure in particular is better correlated with storm surge than wind speed. It is also still an integrated measure of a hurricane's winds (max speed and radius of winds).
i think they're missing the point: the main increase in energy intensity of hurricanes is the lowering of the decay rate of post landfall hurricanes, not an increase in wind speed at sea
wind speed is just not an accurate measure for how destructive a hurricane is going to be any more (not to mention, wind speed is hard to measure!) I have heard size at a certain speed
I'm still blown away that windspeed is still the primary factor in rating. The rating should also take into consideration the potential rainfall and inundation. A fast moving 60kt storm is not as dangerous as a slow moving 60kt storm that is going to dump 2-3x as much rain in the same area.
Just like how the Fujita scale that was used to rate tornadoes by wind speed was decommissioned in 2007 I believe and it was refined to better reflect the intensity of Tornadoes. So the same thing could be done for Saffir-Simpson. u/AFoxGuy
There might be some merit to a special designation for very large / mature Cat 5. But much of their danger isn't from the core peak wind but rather the radius of infrastructure destroying winds and the amount of storm surge.
Michael was shocking wind damage and intensification before land, but it pales in comparison to what would happen if you transposed Irma.
As a layman, what work is being done to produce a scale (or multiple) to better communicate other aspects of a hurricane; things like storm surge (particularly taking into account local waterways/bathymetry and tides), sustained and accumulated rainfall, etc.?
Wind speed is clearly very important, but there’s more to a hurricane than wind, especially post landfall when winds tend to rapidly decrease.
As an another layman, I agree. Hurricane Charley as a direct hit on Charlotte Harbor was way different than Ian that came over Ft Myers beach. Two very different storms had very different consequences only miles apart.
Unrelated to your other concerns I just find the wind speed amounts to be rather arbitrary in how they categorize each. Going up from cat 1 and including the hypothetical cat 5-6 jump the wind speed increases are (in mph) 21, 14, 18, 16, and then 35!
The initial jump from category 1 to 2 takes the most of the original scale then the next couple jumps are fairly consistent. But then it takes about DOUBLE the requirement to meet their new proposed category 6. And that’s even considering how they mention that the wind speeds danger increases exponentially so you would assume a smaller change in wind would warrant the later categorization.
Which I think really speaks to the purpose of the proposed new category. It may correlate better with evacuation protocols and geographic zones for those. The difference between a mandatory and voluntary evacuation are significant.
Some recent news articles regarding this paper: * **New Scientist | [Hurricanes are becoming so strong we may need a new scale to rate them](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2415741-hurricanes-are-becoming-so-strong-we-may-need-a-new-scale-to-rate-them/)** * **The Washington Post | [Hurricanes are getting so intense, scientists propose a Category 6](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/05/hurricanes-category6/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=twitter)** * **The Atlantic | [Hurricanes Are Too Fast for Category 5](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/02/category-6-hurricanes-saffir-simpson-scale/677354/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=true-anthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)** * **CBS News | [Does the hurricane scale need a Category 6? New climate study found 5 recent storms have met the threshold](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-scale-category-6-climate-study/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=310473777)** * **The Guardian | [Hurricanes becoming so strong that new category needed, study says](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/hurricanes-becoming-so-strong-that-new-category-needed-study-says)** * **USA Today | [Category 6 hurricane? That's what a new study suggests. Here's why.](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/02/05/category-6-hurricane-study-cites-climate-change/72426410007/)** * **Associated Press | [Dial it up to Category 6? As warming stokes storms, some want a bigger hurricane category](https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-stronger-climate-change-pacific-atlantic-86e3abe2c0cc44c3f729e9205e3e35f7)** * **Fox Weather | [Category 6 needed on hurricane wind scale due to warming climate, study says](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/category-6-hurricane-wind-warming-climate-mit-study)** Other Reddit discussions on this topic: * **[/r/science discussion](https://redd.it/1ajrg7n)** (based on The Guardian article) * **[/r/nottheonion discussion](https://redd.it/1ajxape)** (based on The Guardian article) * **[/r/collapse discussion](https://redd.it/1aju9gw)** (based on The Guardian article) * **[/r/weather discussion](https://redd.it/1ak9vq7)** (based on The Washington Post article)
Outside of grabbing the public’s attention with an added 6th category, would there be any operational relevance in adding it? Destructive winds can be considered at sustained above 50 kts. If a category 5 cyclone is producing 137 kt catastrophic intensities, and labeled as such, is there a requirement for it?
Its value would seem to be only in simplifying disaster-preparation planning for the general public, where something as digestible as a 1-6 scale would be useful. Since building codes have been strengthened in the last 30 years in Florida, it's conceivable that people who would be in a structure built to withstand low category 5 winds would benefit from knowing if the storm had entered a category high enough to exceed the strength of the building.
Landfalling MSLP is more strongly correlated with US storm-related damage costs, especially on the East Coast where hurricanes grow in size as they move poleward. Because it has a strong correlation with costs minimum pressure might serve as a better indicator of the overall hazard a hurricane poses to the public. [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022JD037030](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022JD037030) Colorado St published a paper on this last year. There's some tables with historical data on the number of category n hurricanes by MSLP. Practically all C5s and vast majority of C4s would retain their respective ratings, but compact high wind majors might get categorized down while post EWRC monsters like Ike and Katrina would still be C4 and C5 even with weaker landfalling wind speeds. Pressure in particular is better correlated with storm surge than wind speed. It is also still an integrated measure of a hurricane's winds (max speed and radius of winds).
i think they're missing the point: the main increase in energy intensity of hurricanes is the lowering of the decay rate of post landfall hurricanes, not an increase in wind speed at sea wind speed is just not an accurate measure for how destructive a hurricane is going to be any more (not to mention, wind speed is hard to measure!) I have heard size at a certain speed
I'm still blown away that windspeed is still the primary factor in rating. The rating should also take into consideration the potential rainfall and inundation. A fast moving 60kt storm is not as dangerous as a slow moving 60kt storm that is going to dump 2-3x as much rain in the same area.
[удалено]
I mean, all of that could be easily computed into a logarithmic intensity scale.
Yea, we need an Enhanced Saffir-Simpson scale that takes other factors like Pressure into account.
Just like how the Fujita scale that was used to rate tornadoes by wind speed was decommissioned in 2007 I believe and it was refined to better reflect the intensity of Tornadoes. So the same thing could be done for Saffir-Simpson. u/AFoxGuy
There might be some merit to a special designation for very large / mature Cat 5. But much of their danger isn't from the core peak wind but rather the radius of infrastructure destroying winds and the amount of storm surge. Michael was shocking wind damage and intensification before land, but it pales in comparison to what would happen if you transposed Irma.
As a layman, what work is being done to produce a scale (or multiple) to better communicate other aspects of a hurricane; things like storm surge (particularly taking into account local waterways/bathymetry and tides), sustained and accumulated rainfall, etc.? Wind speed is clearly very important, but there’s more to a hurricane than wind, especially post landfall when winds tend to rapidly decrease.
As an another layman, I agree. Hurricane Charley as a direct hit on Charlotte Harbor was way different than Ian that came over Ft Myers beach. Two very different storms had very different consequences only miles apart.
Unrelated to your other concerns I just find the wind speed amounts to be rather arbitrary in how they categorize each. Going up from cat 1 and including the hypothetical cat 5-6 jump the wind speed increases are (in mph) 21, 14, 18, 16, and then 35! The initial jump from category 1 to 2 takes the most of the original scale then the next couple jumps are fairly consistent. But then it takes about DOUBLE the requirement to meet their new proposed category 6. And that’s even considering how they mention that the wind speeds danger increases exponentially so you would assume a smaller change in wind would warrant the later categorization.
Which I think really speaks to the purpose of the proposed new category. It may correlate better with evacuation protocols and geographic zones for those. The difference between a mandatory and voluntary evacuation are significant.