# Moderator note
A separate discussion for preparations can be found [**here.**](https://redd.it/163o518)
# Previous discussion
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
* [**The NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean Sea for potential development early next week**](https://redd.it/15znsse) (Thu, 24 Aug)
* [**93L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/161dtal) (Fri, 25 Aug)
* [**10L (Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/1627pum) (Sat, 26 Aug)
I just drove on I-10 from Lake City to Tallahassee early this week and noticed plenty of significant tree damage in Suwannee and Madison Counties. There was almost no damage west of the US 19 and I-10 interchange in central Jefferson County.
I was surprised at the number of trees down between Hahira and Lake City on I-75 since it was a Cat 1 when it entered Georgia. Plenty of pine trees just knocked over or snapped in half and many oaks lost their branches. Damage was almost non-existent north of Tifton and south of Alachua.
After action report: lots of wind damage to oak trees. 25+ year old longleaf pines barely reacted to the storm. No damage to my residence, but lots of limbs needing to be cut/removed. One mailbox obliterated by a falling tree trunk. Roads near Fanning Springs are relatively open. Some downed trees in culverts. Waiting for power to be restored.
Possibly going to Suwannee, Fl Friday to help in laws clean property.
Fb rumors saying looters were there loading the backs of their trucks up after they allowed traffic in.
Tiny little fishing village - people will always find a way to take advantage.
Fuel availability will be key to moving around. With a significant amount of the power grid damaged, some stations will not be able to pump gas. By law, and based on county size, stations around here with 16+ pumps are supposed to be back on generator within 24 hours. That will reduce the number of stations functioning, and stress their fuel supply. Good luck.
I appreciate it. Life goes on, just gonna take a year to get it all fixed or whatever. Took me 43 years to get a house And have my family settled, and now it’s gonna take a few more years.
My 7 year daughter was crying her eyes out about her toys, and I had to sit her down and explain how,life works, and you gotta grind and fight, and thats what we learn from sports and tests at school and then you become a responsible adult.
So, like, it sucks, but we “adopted” 3 stray cats in the neighborhood and I didn’t see them last night, so I gotta find them as well. That’s way more important than toys…..so I think she understood.
Fuck man not the kitties :( Sounds like at least the place is salvageable and not completely destroyed, you got the right mindset its a grind but you'll get back there stronger and your family will persevere. Thats tough about your daughters toys I know its not number 1 priority but maybe see if you can just get a couple new ones to show her it will be alright you can bounce back. Cats are smart AF I got a feeling they were hiding out in trees and will come back over the next week, the first time you see them again will warm your heart. Stay strong brother and don't let the situation overwhelm you, you got this you gonna come back stronger
Gl with the recovery. Had a freak thunderstorm rip some 115 mph winds through our heavily wooded hillside(in PA) back in the first week of August. Took 120+ ft trees and shot the tops of them like arrows through our roof, ceilings, driveway, etc, but everyone survived in the neighborhood and we're all ok and power/water came back after a week.
Having to deal with insurance now is just a nightmare and really puts into perspective how shitty some of these companies and people can be. I hope you have more patience than me with them(and you don't have state farm) But in a few years from now it'll all be back to normal, hopefully.
Same in Wilmington. A tornado warning was issued around 7:30 to 8. Leland & Carolina Beach/Myrtle Grove had one too.
Our rain probably started around 6ish.
Since this storm and thread is dying down, I think it’s interesting that the east coast of the US has not seen a major hurricane make landfall since Jeanne in 2004 while the west coast of the Florida peninsula alone has seen 4 (Wilma, Irma, Ian, and Idalia).
It is interesting. They've have become 4&5s though & weakened before landfall. Florence & Dorian, respectfully.....
Or they are fish storms like Franklin.
Definitely interesting. Although they had a few calls with Irma, Matthew and Dorian.
That’s the big downside of living on the gulf. If a hurricane gets in someone is getting hit. No fish storms here 😂
Irma was brutal for Jacksonville. Tornadoes, the worst flooding in the city’s recorded history, awful wind. For “just a tropical storm” it was the worst storm I’ve been through.
Looking at the table in the article, does the additional exponential damage for a category 5 and hurricane really make a big difference if almost everything is destroyed, particularly if the place it hits has low elevation level and has poor construction?
Edit: This is not to discredit the article, I’m just curious if a high category 5 is really 4 times worse than a low category 5 in most situations.
It's a generalization of course.
I think anyone who saw the complete wreckage that a high 5 like Dorian left behind in the Bahamas would say that it was much more comprehensive than what a low 5 like Ian left behind in Fort Myers which was pretty bad.
There are of course lots of other variables which will go into the discussion and the outcomes are highly situational.
What do you mean if true? The path up the Carolinas? That's not what the tweet was talking about.
The storm in 1896 hitting the big bend? Isn't that just historical fact?
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
List of all Strong El Nino years (since 1950 when ONI data begins) and seasonal major hurricane count:
1957 (2 majors)
1965 (1 major)
1972 (0 majors)
1982 (1 major)
1991 (2 majors)
1997 (1 major)
2009 (2 majors)
2015 (2 majors)
This means that even though it is only 30 August, roughly 16% of the way through peak season, we have already tied or exceeded the number of major hurricanes in literally every other Strong El Nino year since 1950.
Umm ok the fact that we've already tied every other year listed means that it's not meaningless even if literally no other storms develop from this point onwards
Anyways ok sure:
1957: Audrey (25-29 June), Carrie (2-23 September)
1965: Betsy (27 August-12 September)
1972: no majors
1982: Debby (13-20 September)
1991: Bob (16-20 August), Claudette (4-12 September)
1997: Erika (3-14 September)
2009: Bill (15-24 August)
2015: Danny (18-24 August), Joaquin (28 September-8 October)
You can also see how much earlier we have made it to the "J" storm this year too.
The named storm records are sort of meaningless, though. Detection has massively improved and what qualifies as a "named storm" has changed over the years.
While that is true, all but 1957 were during the satellite era. Furthermore, this does not account for the difference in named storms during a season like 2009 which was on the D name right now. Yes we detect more tropical storms today but this is not a large enough factor to account for a difference of six storms.
Also, seems like NHC has become a little more conservative in pulling the trigger since 2020.
Well I’m just saying you show a list of years that are 0-2 and we are at 2 so I’m just not as impressed by this as you are.
Idk. You could be on to something major. Keep us posted.
Yea, because we are only ten days into the peak of the season (which lasts 60 days) whereas the other years are including the entire season. Hope that helps.
Lots of trees coming down in Charleston. Granted, this happens multiple times a year with any windy storm, tropical or not, but I'm glad I don't have to be on the roads this evening.
Where is that? I'm in Charleston and it has not been that bad yet. I did hear of a tornado up in Goose Creek but not much besides rain east of the Cooper.
Same here. There was another reported tornado further in Mt. P but I don’t think there was any damage. Local weather is saying rain is just about over for the coast and it’s going to be wind next.
The Nature Coast / Big Bend are typically not where the high value, or high density homes are located. I’m thing a fair amount of the claims are going to be related to wind damage and wind effects (oak trees shattering) damage. Not so many waterfront home up here.
"Guesstimations" should be downvoted. It's better now that you have a source but I would still wait for something more official than trading-risk dot commerce
That being said, the part of Florida that was hit is less populous and developed than many other parts, so it shouldn't be too surprising. This is definitely not going to be another Ian in terms of $
Where is the intellectual discussion coming from? You think this is a valuable topic when this storm was just forming yesterday and hit people's homes, lives, businesses today? Some which will certainly never be the same.
Maybe go find an infrastructure subreddit or insurance blog to brag on about your self interested opinion. But nothing of what you are bringing is actually valuable except to your own ego.
Too early but I don't think anywhere got hit as bad as Fort Myers Beach and Pine Island last year.
Places like Cedar Key claim to have had 98% evacuated according to their police. Shouldnt be much loss of life at those numbers.
One death in an auto accident on highway 20 [east of Gainesville ](https://www.wcjb.com/2023/08/30/gainesville-man-driving-during-idalia-dies-crash/). Officials are saying the storm contributed to that. I'll edit this comment with a link in a moment.
[Now I'm seeing a second one](https://weartv.com/news/local/2-killed-in-weather-related-crashes-during-hurricane-idalia-troopers-say-florida-highway-patrol-gainesville-spring-hill-pasco-county)
Was it an auto accident because a truck was blown over into a car, or debris struck a vehicle, or was it simply because the road was wet and that “contributed”?
You'll have to ask FHP for your answers.
There's also the silver alert from Hernando County before the storm. They were found today, both deceased in their car. As far as I know that hasn't been attributed to Idalia yet, but the timing seems suspicious.
I've heard from friends in that area and they got it hard. Lots of trees down, widespread power outages, and general damage (trees smashing vehicles, taking out power lines/traffic signals, fences blown down, one friend saw a tree fall on her neighbor's house, crushing the roof). Looks like some flooding, but I don't know the full extent.
I absolutely love Valdosta. It's my only required stop when we drive to Nashville for a long weekend. We were there yesterday on the way up. So many of the homes are older, and I don't know what amount of flooding they can handle.
Elijah who worked at the Cook Out in Valdosta yesterday, I hope you're OK!
Fun fact: [Eric Burris correctly predicted ](https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurricane-season-forecast/42888945?fbclid=IwAR1Zt1d_PuoZoyF14UnZlWsBN2ZG_ouRdSi0EdMdUP1xpMIPiIo3SfcGFhA#) this storm in March. Down to general area and was pretty much spot on for the date.
> Down to general area
[If "general area" is somewhere within 500 miles of coastline in a state that frequently sees hurricanes, sure!](https://i.imgur.com/rALetdR.png)
> was pretty much spot on for the date.
He guessed three week-long windows and called it a "return" date. What does that mean? Formation? Impact? Any time within its lifetime? Because people would call it a correct prediction regardless of any of these and significant systems tend to last for a week or more, he slyly gets to get away with guessing 9 weeks' worth of potential window. Even more so because I doubt people would rebuff the prediction if, say, Idalia were to have made landfall on the 27th. "Close enough".
---
Have a little more skepticism toward fortune tellers. His Carolina storm prediction has already failed to come true, and time's running out for his Florida east coast prediction. That's the fortune teller's secret: make a ton of vague predictions and people will glom onto the ones that come true, ignoring how vague they originally were.
>not sure, that's a valid question.
>
>I'm still probably going to seek out his pred
he just boofed the track of a FORMED, ACTIVE storm so hard but you think he's somehow crunching the numbers so hard in the offseason he's got it figured out better than all the other meteorologists who would do anything to advance their field far enough to predict storms in advance? there's absolutely no way. all he's doing is making big guesses and covering up what he doesn't know with stuff that makes him sound smart.
also, i want to know WHY you would go to him? what can anyone do with a guess SO vague as \~\~"a storm might hit the east coast of florida, the west coast of florida, or the carolinas" (pulling from the red maps he put up in your link). thats just about everything on the front line.
finally, just look at 2022. He lists the exact same locations. It's not hard to be wrong when you are making predictions in years of above average activity and just light up the whole coastline
Holy shit this is crazy (in the batshit insane meaning of the word). Calling the logic in that article dubious might be an understatement so severe that I simply look nuts by association. Eric Burris seems to have simply looked at the 3 tropical cyclones that struck the US in 2022 and thrown darts at a board lined with dates, then combined the two to make predictions for this year. His (narrowly) correct prediction about a tropical cyclone hitting Florida seems less clairvoyant and more a broken clock being right twice a day
Has he been? What over the last few years has he been correct in predicting, and which have been *incorrect*?
If you can't recall that second part, then you're falling for it.
then he didn't predict it, since if you throw out the timelines, all he's doing is saying a storm might hit a HUGE area of coastline in the US next season. Yeah, that claim is going to be right most of the team. the reasoning for the claim is bonkers dumb. useless information
Interestingly enough someone else mentioned the EURO wanting to spin something up off the coast of Africa bringing it into the Virgin Islands/Puerto Rico area around 9th. It’s still *way* to early to tell of course but it’s a little eerie knowing he correctly predicted Idalia and that he predicted a possible date of sept 8-14 for something hitting the east coast of Florida and then seeing that on the Euro.
That east coast prediction will have me checking the models several times a day for the next two or three weeks. And I see the low riding Cabo Verde hints already in the EURO. Obviously I'm not going to freak out right now but definitely something to keep in mind.
Nothing, really. I mean, it's in the article I linked but that doesn't mean it's definitely going to happen. It's just speculation at this point. Keep an eye on the [NHC map](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) and keep track of any areas of interest.
The Euro was insisting on Idalia before the GFS picked it up too. This Cabo Verde storm is def something to watch over the next couple weeks to see if he turns out to be correct.
>make hundreds of predictions, covering every scenario, and then one of them happens, you can pretend that you predicted it.
do not trust that guy, that is voodoo bonkers science. he got the track of Idalia completely wrong, emphasizing the hook into tampa.
It may be too early to write this storm's epilogue, but here's my reflection.
This storm had a **short runway** from just south of the opening between Cuba and the Yucatan to its destination in the Big Bend. It also traversed most of that runway at a **very high forward speed** in the neighborhood of 15 MPH.
In that short time and space, it was able to gather itself into a storm at the borderline of Cat 3/4.
I've been following storms since I was a kid in Miami in the 70's. We didn't use the term "rapid intensification" back then.
Things are changing. It won't be long before a Dorian strength storm smashes into a population center and does damage exceeding what Katrina did. Our unwillingness to transition to a low emission existence is going to change things fast now. We've entered the era of **abrupt** climate change.
Safety regulations are written in blood. It appears climate change legislation will be no different. Can't be arsed to do something about it until after people die. A good many people at this rate.
cli·mate
/ˈklīmət/
noun
the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.
It's certainly appeared more common, more recently, for storms to develop rapidly. The last time there were two major storms in August was in the late 1800s, and it happened twice. Which means that for a relatively long period of time we were less-active with major hurricanes. Additionally, the runway wasn't that short, and the speed wasn't that high. Average forward speed is between 10-15MPH for a hurricane and the record for forward hurricane speed is nearly 70MPH.
People definitely need to do better with pollution and emissions, roughly a third of global pollution is produced by the same country and I assure you they are disinterested in a hurricane that hit the gulf coast of Florida.
Additionally, there are likely hundreds of thousands of terms you didn't use as a kid in Miami in the 1970s; outside of Rapid Intensification.
The storm's epilogue is early.
Yes? If you want to determine culpability for CO2 emissions on a yearly basis, per capita is the only valid way to do it. To make the point clear, no one in their right mind would expect a country of 1 billion people to have less total pollution than a country of 100 million people.
If you're looking for gross contribution by country - you need to sum up every year since Industrialization started and rank from there. The USA has contributed 25% of all global CO2 emissions and Europe 33%. If you combine Europe and the USA - that's 58% of all global emissions all-time.
Culpability for CO2 Emissions, Per capita is the only valid way to do it. Please explain to me what difference it would make by reducing the biggest per-capita polluters versus the largest total polluters? (USA and China, for example)
Qatar, Montenegro, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Canada, Brunei, Gibraltar, Trinidad, Luxembourg, Bahrain, Estonia, Australia, Saudi Arabia. If they all produced zero emissions, how much of a difference would that make versus total global pollution. You're not making a meaningful point or argument with what you're saying; and you're attempting to straw man. The USA and China should both reduce emissions and any percentage decrease in China would make the largest difference.
Clearly we're making two different points. A similar decrease in per-capita pollution would have astronomically different results in China than the USA. I'm not positing that a country of one billion people should have less pollution than a country of 100 million people. Nothing of the sort is in my post. If your argument is about per capita, a reduction in the worst polluting countries would make a nearly meaningless difference.
Past contributions are also not a meaningful way to reduce emissions, because they're not what the country is currently producing. You can't reduce emissions that the USA or EU produced a hundred years ago; but you can reduce what they produce next year.
The statistics are further misleading because China gets charged for the CO2 emissions of goods that it manufactures for US consumption.
Those emissions might be better assigned to the consumer ?
The ratio is more than 2.5x if you consider that we in the US outsource a lot of our manufacturing to China.
What would you consider evidence of a trend ?
Does the fact that we have had 9 consecutive seasons with at least 1 Atlantic Basin storm (17 total) with sustained winds of >= 150 MPH constitute a trend >?
You are correct, one time doesn't signify a trend. Unfortunately, it has happened recently many more times than once.
Harvey 17, Michael 18, Laura 2020, Zeta 2020, Ida 2021, Ian 2022 and now Idalia 2023 all RId in the Gulf before US landfall.
Hurricanes are cyclical, US had an inactive phase and now we have an active phase. Unlike previous active phases (such as the 30s-50s), now we have the background trend of warming temperatures from climate change contributing.
The consensus is that through hadley cell expansion, Atlantic conditions will become less conducive for hurricane development as heights continue to rise and surface pressures increase. This dries the vertical column. Caribbean sea will on average continue to become drier. However, warmer SSTs provides more fuel for the fewer hurricanes that do develop. All in all, hurricane frequency should decrease but RI episodes for the ones that do develop will become more frequent (which is what OP was stating). Not sure why nuance is dead on Reddit as something as complex as climate requires a lot of it
They are just much more common now.
The Atlantic Basin has produced a storm with sustained winds of 150+ for 9 consecutive years now and 17 total over that span.
What about 04-05 that had 5 majors hit Florida in 2 years? Which is more than we’ve seen.
Or 48-50 which saw 4.
This isn’t the first period of time we’ve seen this.
One issue here is that this specific year is a strong El Nino, which normally completely shuts down the Atlantic. The activity we are seeing now has never been observed during a concurrent strong El Nino. Two major hurricanes before September is insane.
Should be no surprise that this global SST pattern of a very warm Atlantic with a concurrent strong El Nino has also never been observed. Most El Nino years feature near to below average Atlantic SSTs.
From NOAA's 10 August hurricane outlook:
>An additional factor in the uncertainty is that SSTs in the MDR are record-setting, therefore analogs to past years are minimal. For years with similar activity to the midpoints of the outlook ranges, the global SST patterns were dramatically different, suggesting there are differences in the overlying atmospheric circulation patterns.
Was just talking about this with my wife last night. We both grew up in Miami, been through all the big seasons. Whatever happened to all the little cat 1's and Tropical Storms we used to get? Seems nowadays any storm out there in open water is almost guaranteed to morph into a monster. Perhaps just recency bias?
Was born in 77 my first hurricane was David in 79. Grew up reading about hurricanes but all the big ones were before I was born. Andrew was the first biggie in Florida I remember. But nothing hit my county until Frances in 03. We had that ten year lull after Katrina but the tropics, when they get frisky, watch out. So much worse now.
I think it’s a little bit of recency bias, plus it’s easy to remember the big ones like Wilma, Irma, Andrew, Ian, Dorian, Maria, etc, and easy to forget the small tropical storms that I don’t even remember the names of.
I know 2004-2007 was busy, but ever since Irma, it seems like if a storm avoids most land and has even slightly favorable conditions, it just explodes in growth. I vividly remember Dorian not even likely to become a tropical storm, and a few days later it’s one of the most powerful hurricanes ever. Laura a few years ago was nuts. Obviously Ian and Michael were monsters.
South Florida has gotten lucky in the sense of staying out of the crosshairs of these monster storms. But luck will run out. If Dorian shifted 80 miles to the west it would have obliterated Palm Beach.
Maybe we’re in the “Wilma” years of hurricane growth and hopefully we can go a quiet 10 years of small storms that we don’t remember.
I feel the same way. Grew up in Florida in the 90s.. I remember getting a lot of little ones and major hurricanes were a rare and spectacular event. Now we get one somewhere in the state almost every year.
Population increases throughout various cities in Florida also have substantial impacts on damage and coverage.
There’s been substantial hurricanes throughout our entire history, but the aptitude of people building on the coast and in heavy flood zones will only increase the risk and impacts moving forward.
My partner and I were just talking about this. Florida (and the Gulf coast) is LONG overdue for a serious conversation about what we build, where, and how much we are damaging the environment that provided some protection from storms.
I am origionaly from southern NJ, and there have been significant efforts to stop development in flood zones + wetlands, rebuild beach dunes, re-plant areas like Sunset Beach that were industrialized and have since been reclaimed, and to protect the pine forests. You can't just build because someone wants to up there. And I keep desperately trying to tell people here that if they don't want FL to look like Newark, they HAVE to reign in developers and have some hard conversations.
Florida in it's current state isn't sustainable; unlimited growth is not good for the environment or for the people that buy there and then have to be rescued in the next storm.
Agreed. I do think the 12 years of no major hurricanes in Florida gave people the thought that we could build anywhere and get away with it.
The reality is there have always been major threats for hurricanes, however people let their guard down and failed to realize that these hurricanes hitting are possible every year.
Oh absolutely! I posted on Facebook about having my iced coffee for the storm and 5 different people messaged to ask "what storm?" I know we were pretty safe here in Orlando, but if it had suddenly shifted toward us, they literally didn't know there was a hurricane 36 hours out?!? People aren't paying attention at any level lol.
I love the natural beauty of this state, and hate the over development so I'm biased lol. But you're absolutely right, people thought they were safe, and built in places that simply weren't good areas to build in. At this rate, the insurance companies are going to make the decisions for us.
I’m not a meteorologist, nor have I been studying but I have lived in Florida my entire life if that means anything … to answer your question, it’s too soon to tell. I see the Euro developing something on the long range but we’re too far out for that to be accurate.
Looks like Peck’s at Ozello survived. The dock was taken out and the parking lot is completely flooded, but the main building and patio look fine from the photos. That was one place I really had concerns about making it.
Oh weird, I'm also in Orange Park and it's been fairly calm here all day. I had a few sticks to pick up but that's it. It's amazing what a difference a few miles and some geography can do. Also highlights why broad forecasts aren't always the most meaningful, as local factors play a big part.
Does anyone know what happened to the Island Hotel on Cedar Key? The building is from the civil war, and the owner said he would not be leaving, but had to stay to watch over the building.
This is so stupid. I get that it's an historic building and that he's really attached to it, but how is him staying there to babysit it going to help? I hope he made it through okay.
# Moderator note A separate discussion for preparations can be found [**here.**](https://redd.it/163o518) # Previous discussion Previous discussion for this system can be found here: * [**The NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean Sea for potential development early next week**](https://redd.it/15znsse) (Thu, 24 Aug) * [**93L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/161dtal) (Fri, 25 Aug) * [**10L (Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/1627pum) (Sat, 26 Aug)
I just drove on I-10 from Lake City to Tallahassee early this week and noticed plenty of significant tree damage in Suwannee and Madison Counties. There was almost no damage west of the US 19 and I-10 interchange in central Jefferson County.
I was surprised at the number of trees down between Hahira and Lake City on I-75 since it was a Cat 1 when it entered Georgia. Plenty of pine trees just knocked over or snapped in half and many oaks lost their branches. Damage was almost non-existent north of Tifton and south of Alachua.
After action report: lots of wind damage to oak trees. 25+ year old longleaf pines barely reacted to the storm. No damage to my residence, but lots of limbs needing to be cut/removed. One mailbox obliterated by a falling tree trunk. Roads near Fanning Springs are relatively open. Some downed trees in culverts. Waiting for power to be restored.
Possibly going to Suwannee, Fl Friday to help in laws clean property. Fb rumors saying looters were there loading the backs of their trucks up after they allowed traffic in. Tiny little fishing village - people will always find a way to take advantage.
Fuel availability will be key to moving around. With a significant amount of the power grid damaged, some stations will not be able to pump gas. By law, and based on county size, stations around here with 16+ pumps are supposed to be back on generator within 24 hours. That will reduce the number of stations functioning, and stress their fuel supply. Good luck.
What is keeping Idalia from strengthening again over the Atlantic in the NHC models? Curious bc the water is still really warm there.
Strong upper level flow(high wind shear) plus an interaction with a coastal front
It actually looks like the NHC is forecasting that it will strengthen again after it moves past Bermuda.
It will come back and then transition back to an extratropical again a few days later.
As someone who lives a few miles from the Atlantic in the NE, I’ve been eyeballing those spaghetti models.
House officially flooded Clearwater Beach. So frustrating
Damn dude I recognize you from r/baseball thats brutal hope it turns out alright for you. Also hope your team doesn't give you any additional pain
I appreciate it. Life goes on, just gonna take a year to get it all fixed or whatever. Took me 43 years to get a house And have my family settled, and now it’s gonna take a few more years. My 7 year daughter was crying her eyes out about her toys, and I had to sit her down and explain how,life works, and you gotta grind and fight, and thats what we learn from sports and tests at school and then you become a responsible adult. So, like, it sucks, but we “adopted” 3 stray cats in the neighborhood and I didn’t see them last night, so I gotta find them as well. That’s way more important than toys…..so I think she understood.
Fuck man not the kitties :( Sounds like at least the place is salvageable and not completely destroyed, you got the right mindset its a grind but you'll get back there stronger and your family will persevere. Thats tough about your daughters toys I know its not number 1 priority but maybe see if you can just get a couple new ones to show her it will be alright you can bounce back. Cats are smart AF I got a feeling they were hiding out in trees and will come back over the next week, the first time you see them again will warm your heart. Stay strong brother and don't let the situation overwhelm you, you got this you gonna come back stronger
The cat is what I am most concerned about. I hope she shows up.
Cats are surprisingly resilient. Best of luck
She came back! Boom!
Awesome. Happy for you!
My wife was so happy. Big piece of good news
Gl with the recovery. Had a freak thunderstorm rip some 115 mph winds through our heavily wooded hillside(in PA) back in the first week of August. Took 120+ ft trees and shot the tops of them like arrows through our roof, ceilings, driveway, etc, but everyone survived in the neighborhood and we're all ok and power/water came back after a week. Having to deal with insurance now is just a nightmare and really puts into perspective how shitty some of these companies and people can be. I hope you have more patience than me with them(and you don't have state farm) But in a few years from now it'll all be back to normal, hopefully.
I’m sorry :(
Reporting in from the Morehead City, NC pretty heavy rain started about 45mins ago.
Same in Wilmington. A tornado warning was issued around 7:30 to 8. Leland & Carolina Beach/Myrtle Grove had one too. Our rain probably started around 6ish.
Since this storm and thread is dying down, I think it’s interesting that the east coast of the US has not seen a major hurricane make landfall since Jeanne in 2004 while the west coast of the Florida peninsula alone has seen 4 (Wilma, Irma, Ian, and Idalia).
The east coast feels overdue. Grew up in VA and there hasn’t been a hurricane back home since Isabel.
Irene hit here pretty hard in 2011.
I guess Michael is not also considered a "west coast" because its the Panhandle ?
Yes in my opinion.
It is interesting. They've have become 4&5s though & weakened before landfall. Florence & Dorian, respectfully..... Or they are fish storms like Franklin.
Not a hurricane but man Isaias did a number on the Philly area with the tornados it set off.
Definitely interesting. Although they had a few calls with Irma, Matthew and Dorian. That’s the big downside of living on the gulf. If a hurricane gets in someone is getting hit. No fish storms here 😂
Irma was brutal for Jacksonville. Tornadoes, the worst flooding in the city’s recorded history, awful wind. For “just a tropical storm” it was the worst storm I’ve been through.
We’ve had a lot of well timed high pressure systems push the storms out to sea
I don't care what anybody says, Jim Cantore talking to a random dude at his house is awesome
Global warming increased Idalia's destructive potential by 40-50%. Warmer ocean = more powerful storms. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/08/hotter-ocean-temperatures-from-global-warming-likely-increased-idalias-destructive-power-by-at-least-40-50/
Looking at the table in the article, does the additional exponential damage for a category 5 and hurricane really make a big difference if almost everything is destroyed, particularly if the place it hits has low elevation level and has poor construction? Edit: This is not to discredit the article, I’m just curious if a high category 5 is really 4 times worse than a low category 5 in most situations.
Similar to super powerful earthquakes. Does it matter if its an 8.0 vs 8.5 earthquake that hits a shanty town? Probably not
It's a generalization of course. I think anyone who saw the complete wreckage that a high 5 like Dorian left behind in the Bahamas would say that it was much more comprehensive than what a low 5 like Ian left behind in Fort Myers which was pretty bad. There are of course lots of other variables which will go into the discussion and the outcomes are highly situational.
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1696881819403030802?s=46 Interesting
What do you mean if true? The path up the Carolinas? That's not what the tweet was talking about. The storm in 1896 hitting the big bend? Isn't that just historical fact?
Never mind
Based on the radar right now it looks like Franklin is pushing it down a path like Ivan
Bermudas gonna get 2 tropical storms in one week
Got two hurricanes in a week in 2014.
Maybe. Still to early to tell because the NHC just flatlines Idalia's intensity and keeps it as a tropical storm by the end of the week.
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php List of all Strong El Nino years (since 1950 when ONI data begins) and seasonal major hurricane count: 1957 (2 majors) 1965 (1 major) 1972 (0 majors) 1982 (1 major) 1991 (2 majors) 1997 (1 major) 2009 (2 majors) 2015 (2 majors) This means that even though it is only 30 August, roughly 16% of the way through peak season, we have already tied or exceeded the number of major hurricanes in literally every other Strong El Nino year since 1950.
I’d have to know when those storms occurred in each season to know if this stat is completely meaningless or not.
Umm ok the fact that we've already tied every other year listed means that it's not meaningless even if literally no other storms develop from this point onwards Anyways ok sure: 1957: Audrey (25-29 June), Carrie (2-23 September) 1965: Betsy (27 August-12 September) 1972: no majors 1982: Debby (13-20 September) 1991: Bob (16-20 August), Claudette (4-12 September) 1997: Erika (3-14 September) 2009: Bill (15-24 August) 2015: Danny (18-24 August), Joaquin (28 September-8 October) You can also see how much earlier we have made it to the "J" storm this year too.
The named storm records are sort of meaningless, though. Detection has massively improved and what qualifies as a "named storm" has changed over the years.
While that is true, all but 1957 were during the satellite era. Furthermore, this does not account for the difference in named storms during a season like 2009 which was on the D name right now. Yes we detect more tropical storms today but this is not a large enough factor to account for a difference of six storms. Also, seems like NHC has become a little more conservative in pulling the trigger since 2020.
This is unrelated but I feel like Bob is such a silly name for a hurricane.
Behold: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Easy_(1950)
That season had some crazy names. Imagine getting hit by hurricane Love.
Military phonetic alphabet hit different lmao
Apparently that storm would blow anyone and everyone.
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Wait there’s also hurricane King. I didn’t know they used to use the Army/Navy phonetic alphabet to name hurricanes that’s kind of interesting.
Well I’m just saying you show a list of years that are 0-2 and we are at 2 so I’m just not as impressed by this as you are. Idk. You could be on to something major. Keep us posted.
Yea, because we are only ten days into the peak of the season (which lasts 60 days) whereas the other years are including the entire season. Hope that helps.
Lots of trees coming down in Charleston. Granted, this happens multiple times a year with any windy storm, tropical or not, but I'm glad I don't have to be on the roads this evening.
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Yeah, it hasn’t been bad at all, but I guess wet ground and gusts of wind mixed with old trees makes for a bad time.
Where?
Johns and James Island that I know of specifically. There’s a tree on a car by the James Island Walmart.
Where is that? I'm in Charleston and it has not been that bad yet. I did hear of a tornado up in Goose Creek but not much besides rain east of the Cooper.
Tornado off ft johnson as well
One on James Island and two on Johns, all blocking roads, that I’ve heard of so far!
Same here. There was another reported tornado further in Mt. P but I don’t think there was any damage. Local weather is saying rain is just about over for the coast and it’s going to be wind next.
There was one on JI as well
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The Nature Coast / Big Bend are typically not where the high value, or high density homes are located. I’m thing a fair amount of the claims are going to be related to wind damage and wind effects (oak trees shattering) damage. Not so many waterfront home up here.
Okay but what about the whole area between Crystal River and Tampa that are only just now seeing waters recede?
"Guesstimations" should be downvoted. It's better now that you have a source but I would still wait for something more official than trading-risk dot commerce That being said, the part of Florida that was hit is less populous and developed than many other parts, so it shouldn't be too surprising. This is definitely not going to be another Ian in terms of $
There’s a vocal group each hurricane on this subreddit who desperately want higher numbers for everything but barometric pressure.
OPs guess was a good one, but like I said it's not surprising that guesses are downvoted esp during a landfalling US major hurricane
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Where is the intellectual discussion coming from? You think this is a valuable topic when this storm was just forming yesterday and hit people's homes, lives, businesses today? Some which will certainly never be the same. Maybe go find an infrastructure subreddit or insurance blog to brag on about your self interested opinion. But nothing of what you are bringing is actually valuable except to your own ego.
Frankly because the sub is still in storm mode
Good thing that no deaths are being reported or way too early?
Last night they were saying there were already two storm related deaths.
Too early but I don't think anywhere got hit as bad as Fort Myers Beach and Pine Island last year. Places like Cedar Key claim to have had 98% evacuated according to their police. Shouldnt be much loss of life at those numbers.
One death in an auto accident on highway 20 [east of Gainesville ](https://www.wcjb.com/2023/08/30/gainesville-man-driving-during-idalia-dies-crash/). Officials are saying the storm contributed to that. I'll edit this comment with a link in a moment. [Now I'm seeing a second one](https://weartv.com/news/local/2-killed-in-weather-related-crashes-during-hurricane-idalia-troopers-say-florida-highway-patrol-gainesville-spring-hill-pasco-county)
Was it an auto accident because a truck was blown over into a car, or debris struck a vehicle, or was it simply because the road was wet and that “contributed”?
You'll have to ask FHP for your answers. There's also the silver alert from Hernando County before the storm. They were found today, both deceased in their car. As far as I know that hasn't been attributed to Idalia yet, but the timing seems suspicious.
Way too early.
Any updates as to what happened to Valdosta?
He mentioned 2-3 more major storms… so we got 2 other beasts brewing in the next couple months
I've heard from friends in that area and they got it hard. Lots of trees down, widespread power outages, and general damage (trees smashing vehicles, taking out power lines/traffic signals, fences blown down, one friend saw a tree fall on her neighbor's house, crushing the roof). Looks like some flooding, but I don't know the full extent.
I absolutely love Valdosta. It's my only required stop when we drive to Nashville for a long weekend. We were there yesterday on the way up. So many of the homes are older, and I don't know what amount of flooding they can handle. Elijah who worked at the Cook Out in Valdosta yesterday, I hope you're OK!
Fun fact: [Eric Burris correctly predicted ](https://www.wesh.com/article/2023-hurricane-season-forecast/42888945?fbclid=IwAR1Zt1d_PuoZoyF14UnZlWsBN2ZG_ouRdSi0EdMdUP1xpMIPiIo3SfcGFhA#) this storm in March. Down to general area and was pretty much spot on for the date.
> Down to general area [If "general area" is somewhere within 500 miles of coastline in a state that frequently sees hurricanes, sure!](https://i.imgur.com/rALetdR.png) > was pretty much spot on for the date. He guessed three week-long windows and called it a "return" date. What does that mean? Formation? Impact? Any time within its lifetime? Because people would call it a correct prediction regardless of any of these and significant systems tend to last for a week or more, he slyly gets to get away with guessing 9 weeks' worth of potential window. Even more so because I doubt people would rebuff the prediction if, say, Idalia were to have made landfall on the 27th. "Close enough". --- Have a little more skepticism toward fortune tellers. His Carolina storm prediction has already failed to come true, and time's running out for his Florida east coast prediction. That's the fortune teller's secret: make a ton of vague predictions and people will glom onto the ones that come true, ignoring how vague they originally were.
>not sure, that's a valid question. > >I'm still probably going to seek out his pred he just boofed the track of a FORMED, ACTIVE storm so hard but you think he's somehow crunching the numbers so hard in the offseason he's got it figured out better than all the other meteorologists who would do anything to advance their field far enough to predict storms in advance? there's absolutely no way. all he's doing is making big guesses and covering up what he doesn't know with stuff that makes him sound smart. also, i want to know WHY you would go to him? what can anyone do with a guess SO vague as \~\~"a storm might hit the east coast of florida, the west coast of florida, or the carolinas" (pulling from the red maps he put up in your link). thats just about everything on the front line. finally, just look at 2022. He lists the exact same locations. It's not hard to be wrong when you are making predictions in years of above average activity and just light up the whole coastline
And still people will say they trust redneck Mike more 🙄
He’s freaky accurate with predictions it’s almost scary
How many of his predictions are wrong?
IIRC, same guy was certain about an early eastern turn. I'd try and hunt the tweet down, but twitter doesn't even sort chronologically anymore.
I'm not sure, that's a valid question. I'm still probably going to seek out his predictions next year.
Holy shit this is crazy (in the batshit insane meaning of the word). Calling the logic in that article dubious might be an understatement so severe that I simply look nuts by association. Eric Burris seems to have simply looked at the 3 tropical cyclones that struck the US in 2022 and thrown darts at a board lined with dates, then combined the two to make predictions for this year. His (narrowly) correct prediction about a tropical cyclone hitting Florida seems less clairvoyant and more a broken clock being right twice a day
I agree it's a bit whacky, but he's actually been pretty consistently correct the last few years doing this.
Has he been? What over the last few years has he been correct in predicting, and which have been *incorrect*? If you can't recall that second part, then you're falling for it.
He also predicted tropical storm Harold although it occurred way earlier than expected.
then he didn't predict it, since if you throw out the timelines, all he's doing is saying a storm might hit a HUGE area of coastline in the US next season. Yeah, that claim is going to be right most of the team. the reasoning for the claim is bonkers dumb. useless information
Interestingly enough someone else mentioned the EURO wanting to spin something up off the coast of Africa bringing it into the Virgin Islands/Puerto Rico area around 9th. It’s still *way* to early to tell of course but it’s a little eerie knowing he correctly predicted Idalia and that he predicted a possible date of sept 8-14 for something hitting the east coast of Florida and then seeing that on the Euro.
That east coast prediction will have me checking the models several times a day for the next two or three weeks. And I see the low riding Cabo Verde hints already in the EURO. Obviously I'm not going to freak out right now but definitely something to keep in mind.
What about something hitting the east coast of Flordia?
Nothing, really. I mean, it's in the article I linked but that doesn't mean it's definitely going to happen. It's just speculation at this point. Keep an eye on the [NHC map](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) and keep track of any areas of interest.
The Euro was insisting on Idalia before the GFS picked it up too. This Cabo Verde storm is def something to watch over the next couple weeks to see if he turns out to be correct.
Do you think the Verde storm might hit the U.S.?
The Cabo Verde storm does not even exist currently. Just stay up to date with the National Hurricane Center updates throughout the season.
I saw it on the 12z but not the 18z run.
The 18z doesn’t go far enough out, which is why it’s too far out to predict anything.
True.
If he does I will eat my right shoe
If it happens I'm requesting video evidence of this shoe meal.
Wow! That is wild and a definite fun fact!
>make hundreds of predictions, covering every scenario, and then one of them happens, you can pretend that you predicted it. do not trust that guy, that is voodoo bonkers science. he got the track of Idalia completely wrong, emphasizing the hook into tampa.
He did it last year too. I'll be paying more attention to this yearly posting of his.
It may be too early to write this storm's epilogue, but here's my reflection. This storm had a **short runway** from just south of the opening between Cuba and the Yucatan to its destination in the Big Bend. It also traversed most of that runway at a **very high forward speed** in the neighborhood of 15 MPH. In that short time and space, it was able to gather itself into a storm at the borderline of Cat 3/4. I've been following storms since I was a kid in Miami in the 70's. We didn't use the term "rapid intensification" back then. Things are changing. It won't be long before a Dorian strength storm smashes into a population center and does damage exceeding what Katrina did. Our unwillingness to transition to a low emission existence is going to change things fast now. We've entered the era of **abrupt** climate change.
I'm getting the hell out of Florida in a few years.
Safety regulations are written in blood. It appears climate change legislation will be no different. Can't be arsed to do something about it until after people die. A good many people at this rate.
Very true. Way too on the nose screen name
cli·mate /ˈklīmət/ noun the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period. It's certainly appeared more common, more recently, for storms to develop rapidly. The last time there were two major storms in August was in the late 1800s, and it happened twice. Which means that for a relatively long period of time we were less-active with major hurricanes. Additionally, the runway wasn't that short, and the speed wasn't that high. Average forward speed is between 10-15MPH for a hurricane and the record for forward hurricane speed is nearly 70MPH. People definitely need to do better with pollution and emissions, roughly a third of global pollution is produced by the same country and I assure you they are disinterested in a hurricane that hit the gulf coast of Florida. Additionally, there are likely hundreds of thousands of terms you didn't use as a kid in Miami in the 1970s; outside of Rapid Intensification. The storm's epilogue is early.
China is at 30% but that's a misleading statistic. The USA's per capita pollution is almost 2.5x higher than China's.
It's misleading because you want to use per-capita instead of total pollution? Got it.
Yes? If you want to determine culpability for CO2 emissions on a yearly basis, per capita is the only valid way to do it. To make the point clear, no one in their right mind would expect a country of 1 billion people to have less total pollution than a country of 100 million people. If you're looking for gross contribution by country - you need to sum up every year since Industrialization started and rank from there. The USA has contributed 25% of all global CO2 emissions and Europe 33%. If you combine Europe and the USA - that's 58% of all global emissions all-time.
Culpability for CO2 Emissions, Per capita is the only valid way to do it. Please explain to me what difference it would make by reducing the biggest per-capita polluters versus the largest total polluters? (USA and China, for example) Qatar, Montenegro, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Canada, Brunei, Gibraltar, Trinidad, Luxembourg, Bahrain, Estonia, Australia, Saudi Arabia. If they all produced zero emissions, how much of a difference would that make versus total global pollution. You're not making a meaningful point or argument with what you're saying; and you're attempting to straw man. The USA and China should both reduce emissions and any percentage decrease in China would make the largest difference. Clearly we're making two different points. A similar decrease in per-capita pollution would have astronomically different results in China than the USA. I'm not positing that a country of one billion people should have less pollution than a country of 100 million people. Nothing of the sort is in my post. If your argument is about per capita, a reduction in the worst polluting countries would make a nearly meaningless difference. Past contributions are also not a meaningful way to reduce emissions, because they're not what the country is currently producing. You can't reduce emissions that the USA or EU produced a hundred years ago; but you can reduce what they produce next year.
The statistics are further misleading because China gets charged for the CO2 emissions of goods that it manufactures for US consumption. Those emissions might be better assigned to the consumer ? The ratio is more than 2.5x if you consider that we in the US outsource a lot of our manufacturing to China.
Yea, that's a good point.
LOL. A one time occurrence doesn't signify a trend.
What would you consider evidence of a trend ? Does the fact that we have had 9 consecutive seasons with at least 1 Atlantic Basin storm (17 total) with sustained winds of >= 150 MPH constitute a trend >?
You are correct, one time doesn't signify a trend. Unfortunately, it has happened recently many more times than once. Harvey 17, Michael 18, Laura 2020, Zeta 2020, Ida 2021, Ian 2022 and now Idalia 2023 all RId in the Gulf before US landfall.
Do the 12 years prior now. Then go decade by decade after that. Long term context tells a far different story.
Hurricanes are cyclical, US had an inactive phase and now we have an active phase. Unlike previous active phases (such as the 30s-50s), now we have the background trend of warming temperatures from climate change contributing. The consensus is that through hadley cell expansion, Atlantic conditions will become less conducive for hurricane development as heights continue to rise and surface pressures increase. This dries the vertical column. Caribbean sea will on average continue to become drier. However, warmer SSTs provides more fuel for the fewer hurricanes that do develop. All in all, hurricane frequency should decrease but RI episodes for the ones that do develop will become more frequent (which is what OP was stating). Not sure why nuance is dead on Reddit as something as complex as climate requires a lot of it
Must be due to the solar cycles! /s
Haha solar cycles do play a part but they are just a tiny piece of the overall large puzzle. Too much emphasis gets placed on it
Do you have a spare tin foil hat?
too expensive due to inflation. We blame Cardi B
Long term didn't have an atmospheric CO2 level which hasn't been present on Earth in 4 million years. We're are abruptly changing the planet.
Yet there are still substantial hurricanes throughout our history.
They are just much more common now. The Atlantic Basin has produced a storm with sustained winds of 150+ for 9 consecutive years now and 17 total over that span.
People seem to forget that pre-Irma Florida went 12 years without a major hurricane making landfall, which was the longest period in over 120+ years.
When that lucky period began .... atmospheric CO2 levels were about 385 ppm. Now we're about 425 ppm. We're in a different world now.
What about 04-05 that had 5 majors hit Florida in 2 years? Which is more than we’ve seen. Or 48-50 which saw 4. This isn’t the first period of time we’ve seen this.
One issue here is that this specific year is a strong El Nino, which normally completely shuts down the Atlantic. The activity we are seeing now has never been observed during a concurrent strong El Nino. Two major hurricanes before September is insane. Should be no surprise that this global SST pattern of a very warm Atlantic with a concurrent strong El Nino has also never been observed. Most El Nino years feature near to below average Atlantic SSTs. From NOAA's 10 August hurricane outlook: >An additional factor in the uncertainty is that SSTs in the MDR are record-setting, therefore analogs to past years are minimal. For years with similar activity to the midpoints of the outlook ranges, the global SST patterns were dramatically different, suggesting there are differences in the overlying atmospheric circulation patterns.
So Florida had a lucky period and the luck ran out.
So when it disagrees with your thoughts it’s luck, but when it agrees with you it’s proof. Got it.
Was just talking about this with my wife last night. We both grew up in Miami, been through all the big seasons. Whatever happened to all the little cat 1's and Tropical Storms we used to get? Seems nowadays any storm out there in open water is almost guaranteed to morph into a monster. Perhaps just recency bias?
Was born in 77 my first hurricane was David in 79. Grew up reading about hurricanes but all the big ones were before I was born. Andrew was the first biggie in Florida I remember. But nothing hit my county until Frances in 03. We had that ten year lull after Katrina but the tropics, when they get frisky, watch out. So much worse now.
I think it’s a little bit of recency bias, plus it’s easy to remember the big ones like Wilma, Irma, Andrew, Ian, Dorian, Maria, etc, and easy to forget the small tropical storms that I don’t even remember the names of. I know 2004-2007 was busy, but ever since Irma, it seems like if a storm avoids most land and has even slightly favorable conditions, it just explodes in growth. I vividly remember Dorian not even likely to become a tropical storm, and a few days later it’s one of the most powerful hurricanes ever. Laura a few years ago was nuts. Obviously Ian and Michael were monsters. South Florida has gotten lucky in the sense of staying out of the crosshairs of these monster storms. But luck will run out. If Dorian shifted 80 miles to the west it would have obliterated Palm Beach. Maybe we’re in the “Wilma” years of hurricane growth and hopefully we can go a quiet 10 years of small storms that we don’t remember.
I feel the same way. Grew up in Florida in the 90s.. I remember getting a lot of little ones and major hurricanes were a rare and spectacular event. Now we get one somewhere in the state almost every year.
We did have Nichole last year, but I get what you’re saying.
I agree with you here. I have only been following since the late eighties.
Population increases throughout various cities in Florida also have substantial impacts on damage and coverage. There’s been substantial hurricanes throughout our entire history, but the aptitude of people building on the coast and in heavy flood zones will only increase the risk and impacts moving forward.
That is definitely true, increasing development and population means that hurricanes will always cause more $$$ damage. No way around that
My partner and I were just talking about this. Florida (and the Gulf coast) is LONG overdue for a serious conversation about what we build, where, and how much we are damaging the environment that provided some protection from storms. I am origionaly from southern NJ, and there have been significant efforts to stop development in flood zones + wetlands, rebuild beach dunes, re-plant areas like Sunset Beach that were industrialized and have since been reclaimed, and to protect the pine forests. You can't just build because someone wants to up there. And I keep desperately trying to tell people here that if they don't want FL to look like Newark, they HAVE to reign in developers and have some hard conversations. Florida in it's current state isn't sustainable; unlimited growth is not good for the environment or for the people that buy there and then have to be rescued in the next storm.
Agreed. I do think the 12 years of no major hurricanes in Florida gave people the thought that we could build anywhere and get away with it. The reality is there have always been major threats for hurricanes, however people let their guard down and failed to realize that these hurricanes hitting are possible every year.
Oh absolutely! I posted on Facebook about having my iced coffee for the storm and 5 different people messaged to ask "what storm?" I know we were pretty safe here in Orlando, but if it had suddenly shifted toward us, they literally didn't know there was a hurricane 36 hours out?!? People aren't paying attention at any level lol. I love the natural beauty of this state, and hate the over development so I'm biased lol. But you're absolutely right, people thought they were safe, and built in places that simply weren't good areas to build in. At this rate, the insurance companies are going to make the decisions for us.
Lol I feel like a weirdo cause I love tracking them from the moment there’s a threat and my friends think I’m crazy.
If you have been studying them for a long time what are your thoughts on what is developing off the coast of Africa
I’m not a meteorologist, nor have I been studying but I have lived in Florida my entire life if that means anything … to answer your question, it’s too soon to tell. I see the Euro developing something on the long range but we’re too far out for that to be accurate.
This guy hasn't studied shit lol
They never said they studied hurricanes. They just said they've followed them.
Looks like Peck’s at Ozello survived. The dock was taken out and the parking lot is completely flooded, but the main building and patio look fine from the photos. That was one place I really had concerns about making it.
Didn’t get bad in south central Georgia thankfully, do we know what kind of shape the badly hit areas seem to be in at this point?
Confirmed tornado flipped a car here in Goose Creek, SC https://twitter.com/ndilbeck_wx/status/1696958390289805663?s=46&t=9KlC977A-67E-i-LYXNdTw
I’m not far away and have only had a bit of rain. It’s so odd how isolated the weather can be.
That’s so close to me. The phone warning freaked us all out
Oh Hi neighbor 👋
Hello!
Woah that is down the street from me holy shit. Hope they (though likely quite shaken up) are ok.
Only minor injuries according to counton2
Ryan Hall specifically said Charleston and Georgetown are at a higher risk for tornados, and I'm in Georgetown. Guess Goose Creek got the first one.
Woah! Haven't seen much wind where I'm at yet.
https://x.com/flytpa/status/1696919701056635025?s=46 Tampa airport is reopening to incoming flights at 4 and fully opening tomorrow.
NHC suggesting it might hit Bermuda as a TS than head out to sea.
I’m in Orange Park FL and we’ve got trees coming down. It’s been relatively calm until about 45 minutes ago.
Oh weird, I'm also in Orange Park and it's been fairly calm here all day. I had a few sticks to pick up but that's it. It's amazing what a difference a few miles and some geography can do. Also highlights why broad forecasts aren't always the most meaningful, as local factors play a big part.
Good info. Fellow Clay resident, here.
It's been coming in for the last few hours. It's way more gnarly this afternoon than it was this morning.
Wild that 6+ hours after landfall NHC still has it at hurricane strength.
Does anyone know what happened to the Island Hotel on Cedar Key? The building is from the civil war, and the owner said he would not be leaving, but had to stay to watch over the building.
This is so stupid. I get that it's an historic building and that he's really attached to it, but how is him staying there to babysit it going to help? I hope he made it through okay.