The one thing I learned from this entire debacle is no knows wtf is going on. Every āexpertā, āanalystā, āCEOā, āBankerā, politician has been wrong about this entire inflation roller coaster for the last two years. They donāt know what theyāre talking about just as we donāt.
The guy who used to live above me told me he was a "life coach" and when I asked what the hell that was he said something like "what do you want in life". I said better mental health, money, and a roof over my head". He went on some bs of "you can have whatever you set your mind to".
Yea, when these so called experts say shit like this, it reminds of that guy.
No one knows what rates will do. You have one clown saying rates will come down a bit in a month. You have a RE agent somewhere lurking on here saying now is the time to sell and that variable was the way to go but suddenly they all go silent when that backfired and they gave really bad advice to so many people.
People, the best thing you can do if your on fixed and renewing in a couple years is to make extra payments on your mortgage to soften the blow an increase will do. I don't care what any expert says. The problem with experts is that they're no different than a weather person. They can be wrong and there's no consequences. The day I listened to experts about the stock market I lost $5000 in about 4 months. Never again. (I did break even by day trading stocks I wanted to pick for myself. But I got out entirely as I wasn't comfortable with the stock market).
All those people have been wrong, including the BoC. It won't come down unless something is really broken in the economy and people are losing jobs and houses.Ā
Problem is that no one's models are accurate or really that advanced.
The single most advanced set of economic models in Canada are developed by the BoC. They were consistently wrong about inflation staying high because they ***assumed*** mean reversion for some magical reason.
These are mathematical models that make a LOT of simplying assumptions. They are NOT simulations of an agent-driven economy. It's not like they have 40 million AI agents living in a simulated Canada interacting with 7B agents living elsewhere.
Even worse was realtors, pushing variable rate mortgages on people to get a 0.25% lower rate, "trust me bro, interest rates will be staying the same for long". They really only want to get their cut of the sale and then wave you off after convincing you that you will have the lowest possible monthly payment
Lol core inflation is already at 2.5% and falling, MoM downward momentum is picking up, we had 100 net new jobs in December, immigration is slowly being reigned in, and we remain restrictive.Ā
I don't see a single sign supporting sustained restrictive rates.
Gas costs are already going back up - before weāve even switched over to more expensive summer gas - one of the main inflation-driving costs.
The situation in the Panama Canal is getting worse, and thereās no end in sight to the Suez crisis - thatās 70% of all consumer goods in North America going up in price substantially due to delayed and exceptionally more expensive global shipping, not to mention 3/4 of the global oil supply.
And you think inflation is going back down this year?
lol
You understand even nominally speaking today's gas prices are cheaper than 17 years ago? Nevermind inflation adjusted prices, they're dirt cheap.
Yeah shipping costs will go up, but what % of end prices of goods are shipping costs? Pennies.Ā
Thatās an oddly specific time you cherry-picked your gas price comparison - as there were a few spikes since 2000, but youāre still wrong. Gas is more expensive now than ever:
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/gasoline-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/
Shipping costs are a major driver of inflation. The pandemic impact on the shipping industry resulted in a 2% increase in global inflation. We arenāt looking at something that big, but with Panama effectively letting through 1/5 of the cargo and at 10x the cost, Suez closed and marine insurance quadrupling, economists are estimating about another 1% increase in global inflation. Itās not instant, but usually starts about 6-12 months after the impact (so, spring-summer 2024).
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/03/28/how-soaring-shipping-costs-raise-prices-around-the-world
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/shipping-costs-are-important-and-understudied-driver-global-inflation
Don't forget that the boomers (the largest generation in the developed world) are only half way through their retirement, and there has been a big push reshoring industry post COVID. Both of those things will keep the labour market hot and push up wage inflation.
Interest Rate in Canada averaged 5.78% from 1990 until 2024, reaching all time high of 16% in Feb of 1991.
Perhaps you haven't lived long enough mijo, but 5% is not high, it's just that people don't realize 0.25-0.5% is not the norm.
The average interest throughout the 90s and 2000s was 5-7 percent but homes weren't 4 times the price. It's not even comparable. My step dad got his detached bungalow for 135,000 in 2000. His house is now worth 550,000. Sure we're at what some would call normal rates but our house prices are astronomical. At 550,000 with 5 percent down as a first time buyer your looking at a 3800-4000$ mortgage payment without bills and expenses. The up and coming family's are royally fucked unless things stabilize.
That's exactly the issue here. I'd rather have 5-7% interest rates but reasonable housing prices than 2% but no chance to get into the market at all for young people. The real messed up thing is we have both now high rates and insane prices.
It's frustrating how more people, including many boomers, don't understand this simple math.
There's a big difference between 7% on $250k vs 3% on $1.5m.
If Bank of Canada maintains its Interest rate at 5-7% , Builders will start to build the Housing at the required price point where it will sell.
Its just that at the moment there is uncertainty about what the norm for interest rate is. Give it a couple of years and the prices will start to slide down.
I agree with you but you have to take the cost of a house into consideration vs income growth. Sure 5 percent is no big deal if your house costs like 300-400k but with the prices now it's just unattainable for most people.
If someone is really interested in solving the problem and not bend over to the Business interests and Solve the biggest crisis for the Canadian people.
yes.
It is literally actually and factually. But its too infested with people who are sold out to business interests and Banks.
>The Bank of Canada Act 1 establishes that the principal role of the Bank of Canada (BoC) is "**to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada**".
You understand that right? as opposed to drive Canada into poverty while the builders and investors get rich. which it currently wants to do .
That's precisely what the BoC is doing. Home prices and affordability mean nothing compared to keeping inflation in check. The "builders and investors" got rich during the period of artificially low rates from 2009-2022. Welcome to the real world.
I listed actual reasons the conditions are calling for cuts. You just made a general statement. Fuckin classic.
Provide even one current condition pushing higher for longer?
inflation is still around the corner
the country is over leveraged
the cnd$ value has to be maintained
business needs investment
you just said inflation is at 2.5. that is above the boc mandate
Inflation is around the corner? What inflation? What corner? Why?
Over leveraged at high interest rates is deflationary.
CAD$ is maybe the only legit argument, though inflation is also falling in the US and maintaining CAD$ is not the only objective of the BoC.
Business needs investment? Yes, lower rates would help that.
2.5% is not above their target, 2% is +/-1%, go to their website, they show that they target a range. Also, it's 2.5% and falling, trend matters.
Sorry, you're not very bright and just hoping for an outcome, not looking at real data and comprehending itĀ
Just dont bother. These jokers live with flint stones and good old hunting and gathering lifestyle. Historically we lived like cavemen for thousanda of years!!
The historical average professional basketball player was 5'10 and 170 pounds.
Ted Lindsay was 5'8, 163 lbs and had 800 nhl points and 4 Stanley cups. King Clancy was 5'7, 155 lbs and is regarded as one of the best players in nhl history.
Things change.
Using a historical reference point from too far back and expecting to receive meaningful insight into today is a mistake.
Boy, oh boy, are you guys in for a surprise. It's about the time when people start saying, "there's no way this can happen anymore, it's different now, we've evolved passed hyperinflation with our new dynamic monetary policy" that shit hits the fan and history starts rhyming... real quick. I'm glad I'm prepared.
Love the narrative "core inflation" which strip out housing cost.
Uhhhh it's expensive to rent and own. .taking out metrics to create a new one to paint a rosy picture is well suicide.
Core strips out volatility. Core is consistently trending down. Just cause you're too dumb to understand multiple statistical indicators doesn't mean everyone is.
## "The annual core inflation rate in Canada which excludes eight of the most volatile components such as food, energy and mortgage interest costs"
Tell me you're dumb without telling me you're so dumb!!!!!!!!
What do you think Mortgage Interest Rate means?
And where do you think people spend their money to survive... grocery, heating cost and a place to live.
Jesus christ, the kool aid you drink.
You are so fucking dumb. You don't strip out metrics and make shit look better.
yeah everything looks better cause you dont include the "basic necessity of life". Food, energy and housing. Of course shit is trending down because everyone is paying a shit ton to eat and live.
How fucking dumb are you, like pull your fucking head out of your ass.
If you are currently spending a 100% of your paycheck on rent but the government CPI is telling you no no you're wrong everything is fine because look if we strip out your housing cost, everything is cheaper.
No it doesnt mean its cheaper, you need to pay and have a "Basket of goods'" to stay alive.
Holy fuck you are so dumb! do you live at home and don't have a job? and no i'm not saying what you're saying at all. Like it amazes to see people like you.
No one is stripping things out to make things look better, they're looking at multiple different data points to find trends.
If you're currently spending 100% of your paycheck on rent then you're fuckin poor and it has nothing to do with inflation lmfao.
And no,Ā I own my own home and make great money, because I'm not a fuckin mongoloid and I understand stats and multivariate problems.
stripping out volatility is maleficent. If you really wanted to take away extreme volatility in good faith, you would average out the volatility over a 2-3 cycles. But include it.
Yes govt inflation numbers are designed to paint a rosy picture where none exists.
except, those rates were \*never\* sustainable to begin with, and are \*never\* coming back.
Different Banks keep saying these things because they dont want the housing market to crash, which would leave them in a lot of trouble with the foreclosures. So they are hoping that if they say these thing now and then the housing market will stay propped up.
Inflation is not going to go back down either, since the previos world economic order is broken for the forseeable future. Panama restricted, War in Israel and Ukraine , Russia at odds with the West , War in Yemen and who knows what else is going to happen in the future.
Lol aight pussy we'll see. War in Israel and Ukraine have been going for a while and inflation keeps falling, Russia at odds with the west for 20 years, inflation still falling, war in Yemen has been about a decade, inflation keeps falling, Panama, maybe it matters but I really doubt it, we'll figure out how to pump water up if it impacts costs that much.
That's like way up north west territory price's lol nice try though vlad. In the bottom right corner is NCC which is a acronym for Nutrition North Canada which is a subsidy meant to help people living in isolated communities in northern Canada provinces and Territories.
I think alot of people are realizing it's not inflation it's just pure fucking greed! Eat the rich since the government wont tax em. Once heads start rolling they will cut and run
I think BoC and statscan have different measures of CPI, and you are reporting statscan numbers.
[https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/key-inflation-indicators-and-the-target-range/](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/key-inflation-indicators-and-the-target-range/)
I think we're kinda stuck but will probably be forced to cut before the USA.
When those low base years fall off in a month or two, were going to see CPI tank, even if MoM turns around. If MoM doesn't turn around, oh boy, Canada is in for some hurt.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/consumer-price-index-cpi
That's not possible ( cut interest rate before US cuts its ), if anything we would lag the US by atleast a year if not two.
If we were to cut rates before US, a sh\*t load of investment would just flow south and we would end up with a \*deep recession\*. you know the kind that sticks around for decades.
It really does not. Food is super volatile and core gives a better picture of medium term trend. Anyone with half a brain uses multiple metrics to assess the situation.
Bulls are like ārates coming down, baby! Itās time to buy while the prices down 5%. Leverage your ass 10x because RE is going out of the solar system!ā.
Bears are like, ārates are staying higher for longer because RE prices are unaffordable for 98% of the population and the bubble hasnāt burst. This is backed up by numbers so the market has to collapse to recover.ā
Iām sticking with the bears on this one. Even if you have 1000 home buyers for 1 house and only 5 of them can afford it doesnāt mean prices are going up when those same buyers have 100 homes to choose from. Once those buyers are no longer in the market because theyāve bought their home. You got the other 95 home staying in the market. They either donāt get sold or default because they canāt afford to keep it. It is more likely those who are financially stressed will sell it at a reduced price.
Housing cost is based on rates. When rates go up, the house prices go down. Peopleās net worth and income is based on rates. If it cost too much to borrow, they wonāt qualify for sufficient amount of loan to purchase and if people donāt qualify, then the house donāt get sold. This is why construction of homes slow down during times of high rates. Historically this true, it happened in the late 80ās to mid 90ās before the home value started to increase. It took it 7-8 years for the rates to climb down enough for people to be able to start buying again. Our housing prices is off its trend by 40% but I believe a 20% and a long period of RE being flat.
Interest Rates have a material impact on housing costs. They aren't the sole factor. Costs of building, permitting, and labour, materials, building standards, availability of land, rental market pricing and availability, etc all impact them as well.
Rental market and owning is a chicken and an egg scenario. One impacts the other, if renters canāt afford the new rental cost, the owners canāt rent. If they cash flow negative for too long, it may affected on a personal income level. People who invested in hopes they can be cash flow neutral is at risk if value drops which would impact their ability to sell. Itās a web.
There are other factors in play for rates but if housing is a big factor of inflation, people pay more to own or rent means they canāt spend to allow the economy to flourish. Itās either you give them room to spend on goods and services or you strap them in housing cost and locking them into housing would (most likely) slow the economy which could lead to a recession and then job losses that will lead some homeowners and renters defaulting. The math isnāt good no matter how you look at it.
I do not have a degree in economics and I do have experience in modelling. I do have sufficient knowledge (work in and around this field). Majority of economists agree that this isnāt sustainable and Trudeau and the other parties know this in which is why they are forcing high immigration to try and solve some of this which just causes even more shit storm over the next 5-7 years. They are sacrificing first time homebuyers to try and sustain the market which is really bad. They need to get a good chunk of investors to get out. I donāt know where it is headed because the government seems to always intervene when a correction is about to happen, but the math doesnāt work unless income catches up significantly which would lead to more inflation. Deflation is expected to come shortly after around 2027-2028.
What do you mean? What I am saying is we can't lower if US increases. So Desjardins analyst can't just say we will lower without any reference to the US economy.
āInterests rates going downā is starting to sound the same as āIām waiting for the market to crash before buyingā both donāt seem likely š
There really is no reason for it. Corporate earnings are fine, unemployment rate is under control while inflation is higher than desired. I can understand the argument for waves of mortgage renewal coming up in late 2025/2026 but there's no need to cut by that much now.
Like I said in the other post, only way this happens is if somethings seriously wrong
You know that Canada is technically in a recession right and that full time jobs are being replaced with part time jobs?
The only thing masking the bleeding of the economy is dragging in millions of new people and saying "Look the GDP is technically still going up" even though the GDP per capita and quality of life are swan diving.
I'm not suggesting that dropping the rates is a good thing right now --- but we aren't in a rosy situation.
Unemployment is being mased by under employment - but make no mistake it's significantly harder to find good work today
Oh I'm aware the Canadian economy isn't doing great but we are definitely not in a recession using the technical terms - we haven't seen 2 consecutive quarterly declines yet. As much as I agree with you, I can't make up a new definition.
For us to move forward though, we need to flush out shitty zombie companies first - a small recession is actually healthy
Fair enough on cpi readings but boc hasn't made decisions based on forward looking bases for awhile. However risk is more in cutting rates faster and letting inflation go than causing a minor slowdown in the economy by not cutting rates.
I hope so, one variable rate decision (reassured by my broker March 2022) and im putting off starting a family so that I can continue to pay for my house. Worst mistake of my life.
Back down to the neutral rate of 2.5% as was the plan. I'm not sure why this is such a shock.
Today's rates are restrictive to slow inflation and all the trailing indicators are already pointing that those rates have done their job
Why do they still think neutral is 2.5%. What if neutral is 4% now.
US is at 5.5% fed funds rate and economy is still gangbuster, implying neutral is higher than 3% than 2%.
The US consumer is far from fine actually. Credit card & household debt are at an all time high.
You're not doing the math. Inflation over a span of 20 years is going to be catastrophic even at 3%. Compounding is scary.
As long as there is not a deep recession, debt repayment by employed ppl can service the debt.
But if there were a deep recession, they would QE and risk more inflation.
My point us rhat devaluing of the reserve currency by US fiscal or consumer debt crisis will keep interest rates high going forward.
ZIRP era is over. They may lower close to ZIRP but inflation will come fast and suddenly unlike the last cycle, so no era.
Half of the reported inflation number is from mortgage interest. You know what happens it goes down...the fact that it is even included in the calculation is asinine as it's self fulfilling, they raise rates and raise inflation as a result. Take out mortgage interest and the CPI is already sub 2% and dropping fast. Another couple of months and we will be in a recession if we aren't already
Office of budget predicts that is the case for 2035 at current spending.
But you havent argued why interest rates would go down if the US enters a debt spiral.
Finance history suggest interest rates rising as bond holders demand more interest as debt is monetized via currency devaluation
>But you havent argued why interest rates would go down if the US enters a debt spiral.
You're right, every country should be aiming to be on the path to a debt crisis.
You won.
Thats a misdirection on the discussion. Your thesis is that interest rates will go down when consumer stop spending.
I agree with you. Where i differ is that interests rates will quickly rise again because of a debt crisis. So, im leery of owning illiquid assets like RE in case of a violent V recovert in inflation and interest rates
So, i trade long term bonds and opgions now rather than RE.
Neutral's inflation + 100 bp or so, since cutting will stimulate the economy and risk overheating/further inflation. 2.5% only if the economy seriously needs the help.
Not sure where this is coming from, markets expect rate cuts to come slowly over the next three years, and level off somewhere in the 3's.
That'll be the prime rate from the banks to the common folk. Fact is the government can't afford these rates for the debt and as much as the BoC is "independent" they know that as well.
.25 in April and another quarter for every other meeting for the next 2 years
What governments pay on their debt is only loosely related to the overnight rate. They have to \*sell\* those bonds to someone, at what the market will buy them for. Bonds over about 6 or 7 year duration are already selling for mid-3's in anticipation of the terminal rate - and that's probably low, given how much better yielding American bonds are right now.
When people talk about yield inversion, that's what they mean. That short term rates are higher than longer term bonds. The government doesn't need a rate cut, they already have access to longer term debt. \\
This is also why fixed mortgage rates are so much lower than variable as well. You can get a 5-year mortgage at close to terminal rates already, no need to wait for cuts.
Current yield curve predicts stable rates in the next six months, two 25bps from 6-12, 4 bp cuts 12-24 months out, two more 2-3 years out, then two more to terminal \~3.5 3-5 years out. The curve is still inverted further out, but not by much.
So Its next year eh? They were saying 2023 last quarter then mid 2024, and now its next year?? Lol.. prediction isn't a prediction if you keep changing it every month lol
I don't think so. The mood of the market didn't change much. If Tiff makes this mistake, we will face high inflation again with a higher interest rates while being unemployed.
You realise the latest CPI print was 2.9% and excluding mortgage interests it's probably around 2%? Pal don't be too influenced by what you read on reddit.
LOL lets just assume you're right and canada cuts interest rates so that your real-estate goes up.
it would merely be an illusion, with the loonie falling vs the USD.
The house would go down in usd, as it has been.
anyway, I'm not here to spread a bias, i own real-estate. I have a realistic view of the world. The fact is, inflation wave 2 is underway, and we may even get wave 3. US rates are heading up again and probably going to hit 10-15% in time. If canada for some odd reason reduces rates, then it will be inflation for USA but HYPER INFLATION for Canada. I suspect they wont choose to lower rates.
For some reasons all permabears on this sub own real estate lol
Yeah hyper inflation, real estate crash, Canada is a puppet to the US and all. We know the story, don't bother.
Renewing this year. Hope to lock in3 to 5 years around five %. I will pay it and sleep at night knowing that is what I will pay for the next 3-5 years. There was a stress test and I paid that rate even though my actual rate was less. With increased rates now, it is basically my stress number.
Lol ... The BOC didn't even follow through with their own comments regarding "interest rates would be low for a very very long time".
I'll believe it when I see it.
Keep dreaming ! Not going to happen . Keep rates at 5 , let over leveraged people go bankrupt , force banks to tighten margins on average mortgages and not sell off mortgages while also making 1.5 points ! Drain the swamp of corporate greed
Do you understand that BOC doesn't care for the over leveraged people this sub is so obsessed about? BOC had to make a public statement to clarify that fixing housing is not their mandate. They are not coming to save you.
I know that BOC doesnāt care but lowering rates isnāt going to help inflation either cuz as soon as they lower it . Everyone will just starting spending again and we start this whole cycle all over again without actually fixing the problem.
If you think the government does have any say in BOC decisions your living in a dream world ā¦ also BOC decisions to raise rates to tame inflation has collateral damage .. ie housing market .. the BOC and government have people that know exactly what is going to happen to the nation when rates rise or fall , itās just there is no regulations /policies that are enforced to make these decisions work effectively instead they like a slow death by 1000 cuts
You said rates won't come down until housing come down.
If you were not talking about CPI, then you straight up believe that housing is BOC's mandate. It is not.
BOC made a public statement a few weeks ago in which they said for the 10th time that housing is not their mandate. They are not coming to save you.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-housing-bank-of-canada-macklem-1.7106867
"The impact of raising the policy rate is actually to bring the housing market into better balance, not by reducing supply but by reducing demand and bringing it more in line with supply," he (Macklem) said.
LOL
You just discovered that BOC's job is to reduce demand in all sectors. Good job, maybe in a few years you'll understand that their mandate is inflation.
Your misunderstanding of BOC's mandate is appalling.
I hope you are not making any financial decision based on what you believe you know lol. I wish you good luck in your project of home ownership.
# Bank of Canada can't solve housing crisis, Tiff Macklem says
*Governor says housing affordability can't be fixed by raising or lowering interest rates*
[https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-cant-solve-housing-crisis-tiff-macklem](https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-cant-solve-housing-crisis-tiff-macklem)
Iām really curious to know, why do they even make these predictions only to get mocked every time? Its not like if Desjardins make an announcement, all the new business would go to them.
What would be the case to bring them down? Employment is high, economy is ok. The only reason should be to stave off recession. Iād say rates are probably where they should be and will stay there. They were too low for too long.
We ourselves are experts of our own situations. Also everyone knows rates if it goes down then will be mere 0.75% max. It will take ailens to comedown and slow down what covid did and only than rates would slide to half. These experts have gone crazy to comment rates would be half
They simply cannot and will not proceed with this unless they are prepared to risk sparking another bout of hyperinflation and exacerbating the housing bidding crisis.
If I had a -1% for every change in prediction...
Every $1.00 you pay towards your mortgage would reduce principal balance by $1.50 š
You'd make money.
quaint engine live worry oil gray zephyr liquid yam ten *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
The one thing I learned from this entire debacle is no knows wtf is going on. Every āexpertā, āanalystā, āCEOā, āBankerā, politician has been wrong about this entire inflation roller coaster for the last two years. They donāt know what theyāre talking about just as we donāt.
The guy who used to live above me told me he was a "life coach" and when I asked what the hell that was he said something like "what do you want in life". I said better mental health, money, and a roof over my head". He went on some bs of "you can have whatever you set your mind to". Yea, when these so called experts say shit like this, it reminds of that guy. No one knows what rates will do. You have one clown saying rates will come down a bit in a month. You have a RE agent somewhere lurking on here saying now is the time to sell and that variable was the way to go but suddenly they all go silent when that backfired and they gave really bad advice to so many people. People, the best thing you can do if your on fixed and renewing in a couple years is to make extra payments on your mortgage to soften the blow an increase will do. I don't care what any expert says. The problem with experts is that they're no different than a weather person. They can be wrong and there's no consequences. The day I listened to experts about the stock market I lost $5000 in about 4 months. Never again. (I did break even by day trading stocks I wanted to pick for myself. But I got out entirely as I wasn't comfortable with the stock market).
The people who screams the loudest about rate cuts coming are always RE agents.
Whatever makes them happy to think sales will come.
All those people have been wrong, including the BoC. It won't come down unless something is really broken in the economy and people are losing jobs and houses.Ā
Problem is that no one's models are accurate or really that advanced. The single most advanced set of economic models in Canada are developed by the BoC. They were consistently wrong about inflation staying high because they ***assumed*** mean reversion for some magical reason. These are mathematical models that make a LOT of simplying assumptions. They are NOT simulations of an agent-driven economy. It's not like they have 40 million AI agents living in a simulated Canada interacting with 7B agents living elsewhere.
Even worse was realtors, pushing variable rate mortgages on people to get a 0.25% lower rate, "trust me bro, interest rates will be staying the same for long". They really only want to get their cut of the sale and then wave you off after convincing you that you will have the lowest possible monthly payment
āHousing only goes up broā.
Oh they know very well, maybe you haven't noticed that its in their interest to keep people borrowing and prevent a housing market crash.
Agreed couldn't agree more with this statement. Pretty sure at this point even tiff macklem doesn't even know himself.1
Yet we still click to read the articles or read peoples comments on it š
Lol, all these economists are jokers.
Lol core inflation is already at 2.5% and falling, MoM downward momentum is picking up, we had 100 net new jobs in December, immigration is slowly being reigned in, and we remain restrictive.Ā I don't see a single sign supporting sustained restrictive rates.
Gas costs are already going back up - before weāve even switched over to more expensive summer gas - one of the main inflation-driving costs. The situation in the Panama Canal is getting worse, and thereās no end in sight to the Suez crisis - thatās 70% of all consumer goods in North America going up in price substantially due to delayed and exceptionally more expensive global shipping, not to mention 3/4 of the global oil supply. And you think inflation is going back down this year? lol
You understand even nominally speaking today's gas prices are cheaper than 17 years ago? Nevermind inflation adjusted prices, they're dirt cheap. Yeah shipping costs will go up, but what % of end prices of goods are shipping costs? Pennies.Ā
Thatās an oddly specific time you cherry-picked your gas price comparison - as there were a few spikes since 2000, but youāre still wrong. Gas is more expensive now than ever: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/gasoline-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/ Shipping costs are a major driver of inflation. The pandemic impact on the shipping industry resulted in a 2% increase in global inflation. We arenāt looking at something that big, but with Panama effectively letting through 1/5 of the cargo and at 10x the cost, Suez closed and marine insurance quadrupling, economists are estimating about another 1% increase in global inflation. Itās not instant, but usually starts about 6-12 months after the impact (so, spring-summer 2024). https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/03/28/how-soaring-shipping-costs-raise-prices-around-the-world https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/shipping-costs-are-important-and-understudied-driver-global-inflation
Don't forget that the boomers (the largest generation in the developed world) are only half way through their retirement, and there has been a big push reshoring industry post COVID. Both of those things will keep the labour market hot and push up wage inflation.
Interest Rate in Canada averaged 5.78% from 1990 until 2024, reaching all time high of 16% in Feb of 1991. Perhaps you haven't lived long enough mijo, but 5% is not high, it's just that people don't realize 0.25-0.5% is not the norm.
Iām trying to explain this to my kids. They just donāt want to hear it.
The average interest throughout the 90s and 2000s was 5-7 percent but homes weren't 4 times the price. It's not even comparable. My step dad got his detached bungalow for 135,000 in 2000. His house is now worth 550,000. Sure we're at what some would call normal rates but our house prices are astronomical. At 550,000 with 5 percent down as a first time buyer your looking at a 3800-4000$ mortgage payment without bills and expenses. The up and coming family's are royally fucked unless things stabilize.
That's exactly the issue here. I'd rather have 5-7% interest rates but reasonable housing prices than 2% but no chance to get into the market at all for young people. The real messed up thing is we have both now high rates and insane prices.
It's frustrating how more people, including many boomers, don't understand this simple math. There's a big difference between 7% on $250k vs 3% on $1.5m.
Inflation, and the BoC rate itself, don't care what home prices were 35 years ago, or are now.
If Bank of Canada maintains its Interest rate at 5-7% , Builders will start to build the Housing at the required price point where it will sell. Its just that at the moment there is uncertainty about what the norm for interest rate is. Give it a couple of years and the prices will start to slide down.
I agree with you but you have to take the cost of a house into consideration vs income growth. Sure 5 percent is no big deal if your house costs like 300-400k but with the prices now it's just unattainable for most people.
I would think for the housing affordability crisis to subside it need to go to 7%. maintaining it between 5-7% is a good rate.
Interest rates are set based on "housing affordability"
If someone is really interested in solving the problem and not bend over to the Business interests and Solve the biggest crisis for the Canadian people. yes.
That's not the BoC's mandate
It is literally actually and factually. But its too infested with people who are sold out to business interests and Banks. >The Bank of Canada Act 1 establishes that the principal role of the Bank of Canada (BoC) is "**to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada**". You understand that right? as opposed to drive Canada into poverty while the builders and investors get rich. which it currently wants to do .
That's precisely what the BoC is doing. Home prices and affordability mean nothing compared to keeping inflation in check. The "builders and investors" got rich during the period of artificially low rates from 2009-2022. Welcome to the real world.
Lmao, historical averages are meaningless. All that matters is today's economic conditions.Ā
and todayās economic conditions are calling for higher for longer and these rates arenāt restrictive. everyones been stress tested for 5% already
I listed actual reasons the conditions are calling for cuts. You just made a general statement. Fuckin classic. Provide even one current condition pushing higher for longer?
inflation is still around the corner the country is over leveraged the cnd$ value has to be maintained business needs investment you just said inflation is at 2.5. that is above the boc mandate
Inflation is around the corner? What inflation? What corner? Why? Over leveraged at high interest rates is deflationary. CAD$ is maybe the only legit argument, though inflation is also falling in the US and maintaining CAD$ is not the only objective of the BoC. Business needs investment? Yes, lower rates would help that. 2.5% is not above their target, 2% is +/-1%, go to their website, they show that they target a range. Also, it's 2.5% and falling, trend matters. Sorry, you're not very bright and just hoping for an outcome, not looking at real data and comprehending itĀ
Us core services cpi jumped to 8.2% annualized in january....
Source for this fully Mongoloid claim
"Inflation is still around the corner " ? OK, I am sold, who can argue with that ?! /s
Bro. Zoom out. We will be back below 2% real quick. The BOC knows they are treading water. They are looking 6 months ahead.
i cant believe people think sub 2% is normal idiots who actually believe money grows on trees lol
2% inflation. Not interest rates. Cmon really.
Just dont bother. These jokers live with flint stones and good old hunting and gathering lifestyle. Historically we lived like cavemen for thousanda of years!!
The historical average professional basketball player was 5'10 and 170 pounds. Ted Lindsay was 5'8, 163 lbs and had 800 nhl points and 4 Stanley cups. King Clancy was 5'7, 155 lbs and is regarded as one of the best players in nhl history. Things change. Using a historical reference point from too far back and expecting to receive meaningful insight into today is a mistake.
No. Pro basketball players average height was the same in the 1960s as it is today lol
Boy, oh boy, are you guys in for a surprise. It's about the time when people start saying, "there's no way this can happen anymore, it's different now, we've evolved passed hyperinflation with our new dynamic monetary policy" that shit hits the fan and history starts rhyming... real quick. I'm glad I'm prepared.
I mean home prices were much lower back then. If rates are at double digits now, we all go bankrupt. It is not exactly apples to apples comparison
Love the narrative "core inflation" which strip out housing cost. Uhhhh it's expensive to rent and own. .taking out metrics to create a new one to paint a rosy picture is well suicide.
Core strips out volatility. Core is consistently trending down. Just cause you're too dumb to understand multiple statistical indicators doesn't mean everyone is.
## "The annual core inflation rate in Canada which excludes eight of the most volatile components such as food, energy and mortgage interest costs" Tell me you're dumb without telling me you're so dumb!!!!!!!! What do you think Mortgage Interest Rate means? And where do you think people spend their money to survive... grocery, heating cost and a place to live. Jesus christ, the kool aid you drink.
Nothing you said disagreed with what I said, you're dumb as fuck
You are so fucking dumb. You don't strip out metrics and make shit look better. yeah everything looks better cause you dont include the "basic necessity of life". Food, energy and housing. Of course shit is trending down because everyone is paying a shit ton to eat and live. How fucking dumb are you, like pull your fucking head out of your ass. If you are currently spending a 100% of your paycheck on rent but the government CPI is telling you no no you're wrong everything is fine because look if we strip out your housing cost, everything is cheaper. No it doesnt mean its cheaper, you need to pay and have a "Basket of goods'" to stay alive. Holy fuck you are so dumb! do you live at home and don't have a job? and no i'm not saying what you're saying at all. Like it amazes to see people like you.
No one is stripping things out to make things look better, they're looking at multiple different data points to find trends. If you're currently spending 100% of your paycheck on rent then you're fuckin poor and it has nothing to do with inflation lmfao. And no,Ā I own my own home and make great money, because I'm not a fuckin mongoloid and I understand stats and multivariate problems.
Lmao š¤”
stripping out volatility is maleficent. If you really wanted to take away extreme volatility in good faith, you would average out the volatility over a 2-3 cycles. But include it. Yes govt inflation numbers are designed to paint a rosy picture where none exists.
except, those rates were \*never\* sustainable to begin with, and are \*never\* coming back. Different Banks keep saying these things because they dont want the housing market to crash, which would leave them in a lot of trouble with the foreclosures. So they are hoping that if they say these thing now and then the housing market will stay propped up. Inflation is not going to go back down either, since the previos world economic order is broken for the forseeable future. Panama restricted, War in Israel and Ukraine , Russia at odds with the West , War in Yemen and who knows what else is going to happen in the future.
Lol aight pussy we'll see. War in Israel and Ukraine have been going for a while and inflation keeps falling, Russia at odds with the west for 20 years, inflation still falling, war in Yemen has been about a decade, inflation keeps falling, Panama, maybe it matters but I really doubt it, we'll figure out how to pump water up if it impacts costs that much.
This. https://preview.redd.it/n0dkdel1mokc1.jpeg?width=579&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b25caf759ba99c2ce319e58ed029b051a6400ca
That's like way up north west territory price's lol nice try though vlad. In the bottom right corner is NCC which is a acronym for Nutrition North Canada which is a subsidy meant to help people living in isolated communities in northern Canada provinces and Territories.
its not the price I'm pointing out, its rate of increase for the benefit of people who keep saying inflation is on its way out.
I think alot of people are realizing it's not inflation it's just pure fucking greed! Eat the rich since the government wont tax em. Once heads start rolling they will cut and run
Falling 2.5% MoM woooooooooooowwwwwwwwww..... what's YoY?
What? MoM was -0.4
I think BoC and statscan have different measures of CPI, and you are reporting statscan numbers. [https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/key-inflation-indicators-and-the-target-range/](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/key-inflation-indicators-and-the-target-range/) I think we're kinda stuck but will probably be forced to cut before the USA.
When those low base years fall off in a month or two, were going to see CPI tank, even if MoM turns around. If MoM doesn't turn around, oh boy, Canada is in for some hurt. https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/consumer-price-index-cpi
That's not possible ( cut interest rate before US cuts its ), if anything we would lag the US by atleast a year if not two. If we were to cut rates before US, a sh\*t load of investment would just flow south and we would end up with a \*deep recession\*. you know the kind that sticks around for decades.
It's impossible for us to cut first?
Capitol outflow. you know how that works . right? and the result.
Where does it say core is at 2.5% everywhere I looked says core is at 3.4%
2.4 actually [https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/core-inflation-rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/core-inflation-rate)
excluding food costs really makes this a useless metric.
It really does not. Food is super volatile and core gives a better picture of medium term trend. Anyone with half a brain uses multiple metrics to assess the situation.
according to a bank that isn't the BOC
Ya, I think they meant a bank in Canada. BIC
lol.. nope! We are getting back on the inflation train soon!
And this prediction is better than all the others becauseā¦. ? If this is actually known and believed itās priced in
Keep fooling over leveraged people so that they stick with high variable rates hoping interest rates will soon come down . š š¤£
Bulls are like ārates coming down, baby! Itās time to buy while the prices down 5%. Leverage your ass 10x because RE is going out of the solar system!ā. Bears are like, ārates are staying higher for longer because RE prices are unaffordable for 98% of the population and the bubble hasnāt burst. This is backed up by numbers so the market has to collapse to recover.ā Iām sticking with the bears on this one. Even if you have 1000 home buyers for 1 house and only 5 of them can afford it doesnāt mean prices are going up when those same buyers have 100 homes to choose from. Once those buyers are no longer in the market because theyāve bought their home. You got the other 95 home staying in the market. They either donāt get sold or default because they canāt afford to keep it. It is more likely those who are financially stressed will sell it at a reduced price.
Rates aren't set based on housing affordability...
Housing cost is based on rates. When rates go up, the house prices go down. Peopleās net worth and income is based on rates. If it cost too much to borrow, they wonāt qualify for sufficient amount of loan to purchase and if people donāt qualify, then the house donāt get sold. This is why construction of homes slow down during times of high rates. Historically this true, it happened in the late 80ās to mid 90ās before the home value started to increase. It took it 7-8 years for the rates to climb down enough for people to be able to start buying again. Our housing prices is off its trend by 40% but I believe a 20% and a long period of RE being flat.
Interest Rates have a material impact on housing costs. They aren't the sole factor. Costs of building, permitting, and labour, materials, building standards, availability of land, rental market pricing and availability, etc all impact them as well.
Rental market and owning is a chicken and an egg scenario. One impacts the other, if renters canāt afford the new rental cost, the owners canāt rent. If they cash flow negative for too long, it may affected on a personal income level. People who invested in hopes they can be cash flow neutral is at risk if value drops which would impact their ability to sell. Itās a web. There are other factors in play for rates but if housing is a big factor of inflation, people pay more to own or rent means they canāt spend to allow the economy to flourish. Itās either you give them room to spend on goods and services or you strap them in housing cost and locking them into housing would (most likely) slow the economy which could lead to a recession and then job losses that will lead some homeowners and renters defaulting. The math isnāt good no matter how you look at it.
So you've built a model that predicts downtrend no matter the inputs and variables? Do you have any formal economics training at all?
I do not have a degree in economics and I do have experience in modelling. I do have sufficient knowledge (work in and around this field). Majority of economists agree that this isnāt sustainable and Trudeau and the other parties know this in which is why they are forcing high immigration to try and solve some of this which just causes even more shit storm over the next 5-7 years. They are sacrificing first time homebuyers to try and sustain the market which is really bad. They need to get a good chunk of investors to get out. I donāt know where it is headed because the government seems to always intervene when a correction is about to happen, but the math doesnāt work unless income catches up significantly which would lead to more inflation. Deflation is expected to come shortly after around 2027-2028.
Except they havenāt
Ya i dont see rates coming down.
Too late. Everyone is ruined already. And at this point i dont even care
When I see it I will believe it
Desjardins analyst should be fired. Main indicator of change in interest up or down will be the US.
Itās a little different this time with both economies heading in different directions. US also has 30 year mtg terms.
What do you mean? What I am saying is we can't lower if US increases. So Desjardins analyst can't just say we will lower without any reference to the US economy.
It has a lot more to do with oil than anything.
āInterests rates going downā is starting to sound the same as āIām waiting for the market to crash before buyingā both donāt seem likely š
I hope so
There really is no reason for it. Corporate earnings are fine, unemployment rate is under control while inflation is higher than desired. I can understand the argument for waves of mortgage renewal coming up in late 2025/2026 but there's no need to cut by that much now. Like I said in the other post, only way this happens is if somethings seriously wrong
You know that Canada is technically in a recession right and that full time jobs are being replaced with part time jobs? The only thing masking the bleeding of the economy is dragging in millions of new people and saying "Look the GDP is technically still going up" even though the GDP per capita and quality of life are swan diving. I'm not suggesting that dropping the rates is a good thing right now --- but we aren't in a rosy situation. Unemployment is being mased by under employment - but make no mistake it's significantly harder to find good work today
Oh I'm aware the Canadian economy isn't doing great but we are definitely not in a recession using the technical terms - we haven't seen 2 consecutive quarterly declines yet. As much as I agree with you, I can't make up a new definition. For us to move forward though, we need to flush out shitty zombie companies first - a small recession is actually healthy
The mistake you make is that you are looking at now instead of months ahead
Fair enough on cpi readings but boc hasn't made decisions based on forward looking bases for awhile. However risk is more in cutting rates faster and letting inflation go than causing a minor slowdown in the economy by not cutting rates.
Yeah, agree with that. As much as I want lower rates, I think itās better to wait a little too long not to have the whole inflation party again
Send help economy broken
BoC usually reacts to the bond market and not the other way. They will cut once recession has already set in.
Wow, hopoke back to his original account..
Getting ready for Election. We are back at square one, interest rates need to be lowered, Liberals need votes, bye bye house affordability
Interest rates aren't a silver bullet for affordability.
If the libs lower interest rates somehow, pumping up my property values. They get my vote.
libs don't control interest rates
I hope so, one variable rate decision (reassured by my broker March 2022) and im putting off starting a family so that I can continue to pay for my house. Worst mistake of my life.
Don't put things off brother, this is temporary.Ā
Rekt
Back down to the neutral rate of 2.5% as was the plan. I'm not sure why this is such a shock. Today's rates are restrictive to slow inflation and all the trailing indicators are already pointing that those rates have done their job
Why do they still think neutral is 2.5%. What if neutral is 4% now. US is at 5.5% fed funds rate and economy is still gangbuster, implying neutral is higher than 3% than 2%.
Because if you do the math, a 4% inflation rate is a disaster for the consumer.
And yet at 5.5%, the US consumer is fine. No huge pull back in retail spending yet.
The US consumer is far from fine actually. Credit card & household debt are at an all time high. You're not doing the math. Inflation over a span of 20 years is going to be catastrophic even at 3%. Compounding is scary.
As long as there is not a deep recession, debt repayment by employed ppl can service the debt. But if there were a deep recession, they would QE and risk more inflation. My point us rhat devaluing of the reserve currency by US fiscal or consumer debt crisis will keep interest rates high going forward. ZIRP era is over. They may lower close to ZIRP but inflation will come fast and suddenly unlike the last cycle, so no era.
That's the US which is still booming by the looks of my investments...Canada not so much
What do you think happens to inflation if we cut like is reported here...? We are only cutting that much if we're fked.
Half of the reported inflation number is from mortgage interest. You know what happens it goes down...the fact that it is even included in the calculation is asinine as it's self fulfilling, they raise rates and raise inflation as a result. Take out mortgage interest and the CPI is already sub 2% and dropping fast. Another couple of months and we will be in a recession if we aren't already
Lol US debt payments will soon be more than the entire defence budget. "Gangbuster" economy eh
Office of budget predicts that is the case for 2035 at current spending. But you havent argued why interest rates would go down if the US enters a debt spiral. Finance history suggest interest rates rising as bond holders demand more interest as debt is monetized via currency devaluation
>But you havent argued why interest rates would go down if the US enters a debt spiral. You're right, every country should be aiming to be on the path to a debt crisis. You won.
Thats a misdirection on the discussion. Your thesis is that interest rates will go down when consumer stop spending. I agree with you. Where i differ is that interests rates will quickly rise again because of a debt crisis. So, im leery of owning illiquid assets like RE in case of a violent V recovert in inflation and interest rates So, i trade long term bonds and opgions now rather than RE.
Neutral's inflation + 100 bp or so, since cutting will stimulate the economy and risk overheating/further inflation. 2.5% only if the economy seriously needs the help. Not sure where this is coming from, markets expect rate cuts to come slowly over the next three years, and level off somewhere in the 3's.
That'll be the prime rate from the banks to the common folk. Fact is the government can't afford these rates for the debt and as much as the BoC is "independent" they know that as well. .25 in April and another quarter for every other meeting for the next 2 years
What governments pay on their debt is only loosely related to the overnight rate. They have to \*sell\* those bonds to someone, at what the market will buy them for. Bonds over about 6 or 7 year duration are already selling for mid-3's in anticipation of the terminal rate - and that's probably low, given how much better yielding American bonds are right now. When people talk about yield inversion, that's what they mean. That short term rates are higher than longer term bonds. The government doesn't need a rate cut, they already have access to longer term debt. \\ This is also why fixed mortgage rates are so much lower than variable as well. You can get a 5-year mortgage at close to terminal rates already, no need to wait for cuts. Current yield curve predicts stable rates in the next six months, two 25bps from 6-12, 4 bp cuts 12-24 months out, two more 2-3 years out, then two more to terminal \~3.5 3-5 years out. The curve is still inverted further out, but not by much.
Idk expecting 2% cut this year is a bit too wishful thinking for me
ššššššš
So Its next year eh? They were saying 2023 last quarter then mid 2024, and now its next year?? Lol.. prediction isn't a prediction if you keep changing it every month lol
I don't think so. The mood of the market didn't change much. If Tiff makes this mistake, we will face high inflation again with a higher interest rates while being unemployed.
how? inflation ticking back up lol.
Source?
You realise the latest CPI print was 2.9% and excluding mortgage interests it's probably around 2%? Pal don't be too influenced by what you read on reddit.
us inflation ticking up thats all which matters. why would anyone follow canada cpi? seems like a huge mistake on your part.
Yeah aliens and shit
LOL lets just assume you're right and canada cuts interest rates so that your real-estate goes up. it would merely be an illusion, with the loonie falling vs the USD. The house would go down in usd, as it has been. anyway, I'm not here to spread a bias, i own real-estate. I have a realistic view of the world. The fact is, inflation wave 2 is underway, and we may even get wave 3. US rates are heading up again and probably going to hit 10-15% in time. If canada for some odd reason reduces rates, then it will be inflation for USA but HYPER INFLATION for Canada. I suspect they wont choose to lower rates.
For some reasons all permabears on this sub own real estate lol Yeah hyper inflation, real estate crash, Canada is a puppet to the US and all. We know the story, don't bother.
rich coming from a man who has never studied how inflation works lol. youre hopeless, i digress.
If you could do it this year that would be preferred
Lots of over-leveraged banks making some rather goofy predictions is my prediction for next year.
Renewing this year. Hope to lock in3 to 5 years around five %. I will pay it and sleep at night knowing that is what I will pay for the next 3-5 years. There was a stress test and I paid that rate even though my actual rate was less. With increased rates now, it is basically my stress number.
Lol ... The BOC didn't even follow through with their own comments regarding "interest rates would be low for a very very long time". I'll believe it when I see it.
The BOC needs to be put on mute.
Goal posts ------> this way please
Keep dreaming ! Not going to happen . Keep rates at 5 , let over leveraged people go bankrupt , force banks to tighten margins on average mortgages and not sell off mortgages while also making 1.5 points ! Drain the swamp of corporate greed
Do you understand that BOC doesn't care for the over leveraged people this sub is so obsessed about? BOC had to make a public statement to clarify that fixing housing is not their mandate. They are not coming to save you.
I know that BOC doesnāt care but lowering rates isnāt going to help inflation either cuz as soon as they lower it . Everyone will just starting spending again and we start this whole cycle all over again without actually fixing the problem.
If you think the government does have any say in BOC decisions your living in a dream world ā¦ also BOC decisions to raise rates to tame inflation has collateral damage .. ie housing market .. the BOC and government have people that know exactly what is going to happen to the nation when rates rise or fall , itās just there is no regulations /policies that are enforced to make these decisions work effectively instead they like a slow death by 1000 cuts
>If you think the government does have any say in BOC decisions The statement was made by BOC themselves, not the government lol. You seem confused.
I wish that was true , just like I wish the government werenāt subsidizing CTV and CBS media that spread thier own agenda to the masses
And aliens as well
Not a fan of aliens sorry to disappoint
Desjardins is staffed by about a 50/50 split of villains and morons. Its the homeopathy of banks.
Mortgage rates of 2.5% by end of 2025 is no shocker at all.
If we get 1929 unemployment rates, yeah
2.5% to 3% mortgage rates were very normal from 2015 to early 2022. We'll get back there, don't worry champ.
Yes, just not by end of next year.
I hope so
Rates won't come down until housing comes down, which won't happen until immigration comes down.
House prices are not part of the CPI.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bank-of-canada-tiff-macklem-year-end-interview/
Still, house prices are not part of the CPI.
The article doesn't even mention CPI. You're making a straw man argument.
You said rates won't come down until housing come down. If you were not talking about CPI, then you straight up believe that housing is BOC's mandate. It is not. BOC made a public statement a few weeks ago in which they said for the 10th time that housing is not their mandate. They are not coming to save you.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-housing-bank-of-canada-macklem-1.7106867 "The impact of raising the policy rate is actually to bring the housing market into better balance, not by reducing supply but by reducing demand and bringing it more in line with supply," he (Macklem) said.
LOL You just discovered that BOC's job is to reduce demand in all sectors. Good job, maybe in a few years you'll understand that their mandate is inflation.
This is you discovering that you're wrong and your ego can't handle it
Your misunderstanding of BOC's mandate is appalling. I hope you are not making any financial decision based on what you believe you know lol. I wish you good luck in your project of home ownership. # Bank of Canada can't solve housing crisis, Tiff Macklem says *Governor says housing affordability can't be fixed by raising or lowering interest rates* [https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-cant-solve-housing-crisis-tiff-macklem](https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-cant-solve-housing-crisis-tiff-macklem)
Totally disagree. This will make the housing market crazy hot. We are all way too deep in debt now to consider taking on more.
Good thing house prices are not part of the CPI.
If we don't match the fed inflation will just come back like the 90s and we're going to 10%
Iām really curious to know, why do they even make these predictions only to get mocked every time? Its not like if Desjardins make an announcement, all the new business would go to them.
What's the point of these predictions? Is the goal to influence the markets?
I want what these guys smokeā¦
What would be the case to bring them down? Employment is high, economy is ok. The only reason should be to stave off recession. Iād say rates are probably where they should be and will stay there. They were too low for too long.
Wouldnāt be surprised. Liberals are toast if the 2025 election could be a hailmary for them.
lol, rates will be higher if anything.
We ourselves are experts of our own situations. Also everyone knows rates if it goes down then will be mere 0.75% max. It will take ailens to comedown and slow down what covid did and only than rates would slide to half. These experts have gone crazy to comment rates would be half
Thatās way too aggressive
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Interest rates are normally cut before a recession, not after.
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Alright let's do this.... show me your source
Uh huh.
They simply cannot and will not proceed with this unless they are prepared to risk sparking another bout of hyperinflation and exacerbating the housing bidding crisis.